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We estimate disc-averaged RV variations of the Sun over the last magnetic cycle, from the single Fe I line observed by SDO/HMI, using a physical model for rotationally modulated magnetic activity that was previously validated against HARPS-N solar observations. We estimate the disc-averaged, unsigned magnetic flux and show that a simple linear fit to it reduces the RMS of RV variations by 62%, i.e. a factor of 2.6. We additionally apply the FF' method, which predicts RV variations based on a star's photometric variations. At cycle maximum, we find that additional physical processes must be at play beyond suppression of convective blueshift and velocity imablances resulting from brightness inhomogeneities, in agreement with recent studies of solar RV variations. By modelling RV variations over the magnetic cycle using a linear fit to the unsigned magnetic flux, we recover injected planets at an orbital period of about 300 days with RV semi-amplitudes down to 0.3 m/s. To reach semi-amplitudes of 0.1 m/s, we will need to identify and model additional physical phenomena that are not well traced by the unsigned magnetic flux or FF'. The unsigned magnetic flux is an excellent proxy for rotationally modulated, activity-induced RV variations, and could become a key tool in confirming and characterising Earth analogs orbiting Sun-like stars. The present study motivates ongoing and future efforts to develop observation and analysis techniques to measure the unsigned magnetic flux at high precision in slowly rotating, relatively inactive stars like the Sun., 25 pages, 11 figures, 3 tables, submitted to ApJ

Studies of close-in planets orbiting M dwarfs have suggested that the M dwarf radius valley may be well-explained by distinct formation timescales between enveloped terrestrials, and rocky planets that form at late times in a gas-depleted environment. This scenario is at odds with the picture that close-in rocky planets form with a primordial gaseous envelope that is subsequently stripped away by some thermally-driven mass loss process. These two physical scenarios make unique predictions of the rocky/enveloped transition's dependence on orbital separation such that studying the compositions of planets within the M dwarf radius valley may be able to establish the dominant physics. Here, we present the discovery of one such keystone planet: the ultra-short period planet TOI-1634 b ($P=0.989$ days, $F=121 F_{\oplus}$, $r_p = 1.790^{+0.080}_{-0.081} R_{\oplus}$) orbiting a nearby M2 dwarf ($K_s=8.7$, $R_s=0.45 R_{\odot}$, $M_s=0.50 M_{\odot}$) and whose size and orbital period sit within the M dwarf radius valley. We confirm the TESS-discovered planet candidate using extensive ground-based follow-up campaigns, including a set of 32 precise radial velocity measurements from HARPS-N. We measure a planetary mass of $4.91^{+0.68}_{-0.70} M_{\oplus}$, which makes TOI-1634 b inconsistent with an Earth-like composition at $5.9\sigma$ and thus requires either an extended gaseous envelope, a large volatile-rich layer, or a rocky portion that is not dominated by iron and silicates to explain its mass and radius. The discovery that the bulk composition of TOI-1634 b is inconsistent with that of the Earth favors the gas-depleted formation mechanism to explain the emergence of the radius valley around M dwarfs with $M_s\lesssim 0.5 M_{\odot}$., Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures, accepted to AAS journals. Our time series are included as a csv file in the arXiv source files

Funding: A.C.C. acknowledges support from the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) consolidated grant No. ST/R000824/1. Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s−1. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass (~0.5 m s−1) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus (~0.1 m s−1) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets. Postprint

Radial-velocity (RV) signals induce RV variations an order of magnitude larger than the signal created by the orbit of Earth-twins, thus preventing their detection. The goal of this paper is to compare the efficiency of the different methods used to deal with stellar signals to recover extremely low-mass planets despite. However, because observed RV variations at the m/s precision level or below is a combination of signals induced by unresolved orbiting planets, by the star, and by the instrument, performing such a comparison using real data is extremely challenging. To circumvent this problem, we generated simulated RV measurements including realistic stellar and planetary signals. Different teams analyzed blindly those simulated RV measurements, using their own method to recover planetary signals despite stellar RV signals. By comparing the results obtained by the different teams with the planetary and stellar parameters used to generate the simulated RVs, it is therefore possible to compare the efficiency of these different methods. The most efficient methods to recover planetary signals {take into account the different activity indicators,} use red-noise models to account for stellar RV signals and a Bayesian framework to provide model comparison in a robust statistical approach. Using the most efficient methodology, planets can be found down to K/N= K_pl/RV_rms*sqrt{N_obs}=5 with a threshold of K/N=7.5 at the level of 80-90% recovery rate found for a number of methods. These recovery rates drop dramatically for K/N smaller than this threshold. In addition, for the best teams, no false positives with K/N > 7.5 were detected, while a non-negligible fraction of them appear for smaller K/N. A limit of K/N = 7.5 seems therefore a safe threshold to attest the veracity of planetary signals for RV measurements with similar properties to those of the different RV fitting challenge systems., 36 pages (including 10 pages of appendix), 23 figures, Accepted in A&A

We present here the detection of a system of four low-mass planets around the bright (V=5.5) and close-by (6.5 pc) star HD219134. This is the first result of the Rocky Planet Search program with HARPS-N on the TNG in La Palma. The inner planet orbits the star in 3.0937 +/-0.0004 days, on a quasi-circular orbit with a semi-major axis of 0.0382 +/- 0.0003 AU. Spitzer observations allowed us to detect the transit of the planet in front of the star making HD219134b the nearest known transiting planet to date. From the amplitude of the radial-velocity variation (2.33 +/- 0.24 m/s) and observed depth of the transit (359 +/- 38 ppm), the planet mass and radius are estimated to be 4.46 +/- 0.47 M_{\oplus} and 1.606 +/- 0.086 R_{\oplus} leading to a mean density of 5.89 +/- 1.17 g/cc, suggesting a rocky composition. One additional planet with minimum mass of 2.67 +/- 0.59 M_{\oplus} moves on a close-in, quasi-circular orbit with a period of 6.765 +/- 0.005 days. The third planet in the system has a period of 46.78 +/- 0.16 days and a minimum mass of 8.7 +/- 1.1 M{\oplus}, at 0.234 +/- 0.002 AU from the star. Its eccentricity is 0.32 +/- 0.14. The period of this planet is close to the rotational period of the star estimated from variations of activity indicators (42.3 +/- 0.1 days). The planetary origin of the signal is, however, the preferred solution as no indication of variation at the corresponding frequency is observed for activity-sensitive parameters. Finally, a fourth additional longer-period planet of mass of 62 +/- 6 M_{\oplus} orbits the star in 1190 days, on an eccentric orbit (e=0.27 +/- 0.11) at a distance of 2.14 +/- 0.27 AU., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A

We characterize the planetary system Kepler-101 by performing a combined differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of Kepler data and forty radial velocities obtained with the HARPS-N spectrograph. This system was previously validated and is composed of a hot super-Neptune, Kepler-101b, and an Earth-sized planet, Kepler-101c. These two planets orbit the slightly evolved and metal-rich G-type star in 3.49 and 6.03 days, respectively. With mass Mp = 51.1-4.7+ 5.1 M⊕, radius Rp = 5.77-0.79+ 0.85 R⊕, and density ρp = 1.45-0.48+ 0.83 g cm-3, Kepler-101b is the first fully characterized super-Neptune, and its density suggests that heavy elements make up a significant fraction of its interior; more than 60% of its total mass. Kepler-101c has a radius of 1.25-0.17+ 0.19 R⊕, which implies the absence of any H/He envelope, but its mass could not be determined because of the relative faintness of the parent star for highly precise radial-velocity measurements (Kp = 13.8) and the limited number of radial velocities. The 1σ upper limit, Mp