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To examine the risk of suicide among individuals positive for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) following screening for evidence of HIV infection. Prior studies have reported a 7- to 36-fold increased risk of suicide for persons with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.Prospective cohort study.Military service applicants from throughout the United States.Death from suicide.The National Death Index was searched for mortality among 4147 HIV-positive military service applicants and 12437 HIV-negative applicants disqualified from military service due to other medical conditions (matched 1:3 on age, race, sex, and screening date and location) identified by the US Department of Defense between October 1985 and December 1993. Death certificates were obtained from individual states. Identifiers and HIV status of living applicants were known only by the Department of Defense.The HIV-positive applicants were 92% male, 37% white, and 56% black. Median age was 24 years (range, 17-57 years). Median follow-up time was 70 months (range, 0-99 months). Ten HIV-positive (49 per 100 000 person-years) and 24 HIV-negative applicants (36 per 100 000 person-years) died of suicide (rate ratio [RR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI]= 0.58-2.93). Suicide rates among both HIV-positive (RR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.00-3.82) and HIV-negative (RR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.07-2.48) applicants are marginally higher than those for the US general population, after adjustment for age, race, and sex. Time from screening to death was less than 3 months for 3 of 10 HIV-positive and 2 of 24 HIV-negative applicants who died of suicide.The HIV-positive individuals do not appear to have a significantly increased risk of death from suicide in the months following HIV screening in this study population. Because suicide risk is reported to be greatly increased after symptomatic HIV disease is present, clinicians should consider asking persons with HIV infection about suicide risk factors during both initial counseling and subsequent medical care. more...

Projections of the incidence and prevalence of disease are important for public health planning. This paper describes methods for projecting the incidence and prevalence of a chronic disease in ageing populations. The approach uses age-specific disease incidence rates together with assumptions about survival to reconstruct disease prevalence. The methods can be used to evaluate the potential impact of public health interventions that may prevent disease or prolong survival. We used the methods to project the future prevalence of Alzheimer's disease in the United States. We found that the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease will nearly quadruple over the next 50 years. Although projections of the absolute prevalence are sensitive to assumptions about the age-specific incidence rates of disease, the proportionate growth is relatively insensitive. The increase in prevalence results from the ageing of the U.S. population. In order to perform the calculations, we have assembled U.S. Census population projections and U.S. mortality rates into computer software that is available from the authors at www.jhsph.edu/Departments/Biostats/software.h tml. more...

Community intervention trials involve randomization of communities to either an intervention or control arm. The objective of this paper is to evaluate person-time methods of analysis of paired community intervention trials when the number of community pairs is small. We consider several test procedures and evaluate their performance by simulation. Naive methods that ignore intracluster correlation, such as standard Mantel-Haenszel type statistics, can be misleading. The performance of the paired t-test depends on the distribution of the random community effects. Permutation tests perform well for the ranges of situations considered. However, there can be considerable loss of power with permutation methods compared to standard Mantel-Haenszel methods if in fact there is no intracluster correlation when the number of pairs is small. We consider methods to account for individual level covariates. Motivation for this work came from recent randomized community intervention trials in Africa to prevent transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). more...

Multidimensional longitudinal data result when researchers measure an outcome through time that is quantified by many different response variables. These response variables are often defined on different numerical scales. The objective of this paper is to present a method to summarize and estimate an overall treatment effect from this type of longitudinal data. A regression model is proposed that assumes the treatment effect can be parameterized as an acceleration or deceleration of the time scale of each response variable's trajectory. Generalized estimating equations are used to estimate the model parameters. Cognitive and functional ability data from Alzheimer's disease patients and quality of life data from an AIDS clinical trial are used to illustrate the model. more...

In this analysis we made use of a large data base of individuals insured by large American corporations to estimate the impact of managed care provision on hospital care for depression. Data on 6,348 individuals hospitalized for depression were examined to assess the effect of managed care techniques on the cost per episode and the likelihood of rehospitalization. Preadmission certification programs were found to lead to significant long- and short-run savings for payers. more...

In prospective cohort studies individuals are sometimes recruited according to a certain cross-sectional sampling criterion. A prevalent cohort is defined as a group of individuals who have a certain disease at enrollment into the study. Statistical models for the analysis of prevalent cohort data are considered when the onset or diagnosis time of the disease is known. The incident proportional hazards model, where the time scale is duration with disease, is compared to the prevalent proportional hazards model, where the fundamental time scale is follow-up time. In certain cases the time of enrollment may coincide with another event (such as the initiation of treatment). This situation is also considered and its limitations highlighted. To illustrate the methodological ideas discussed in the paper, the analysis of data from an observational study of zidovudine (ZVD) in patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is presented. more...

This report presents projections of the number of persons who will initially be diagnosed with a condition included in the 1987 surveillance definition for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States during the period 1992-1994. The report also presents estimates and projections of the prevalence of persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who have CD4+ T-lymphocyte (T-cell) counts200/microL and who have not been diagnosed with a condition listed in the 1987 AIDS surveillance definition. These estimates and projections are used to predict the effect of expanding the AIDS surveillance definition to include all HIV-infected persons with a CD4+ T-cell count200/microL. Approximately 58,000 persons were diagnosed with AIDS in the United States during 1991. During the period 1992-1994, the number of persons newly diagnosed with AIDS is expected to increase by at most a few percent annually, with approximately 60,000-70,000 persons diagnosed per year. Although AIDS diagnoses among homosexual and bisexual men and among injecting drug users are projected to reach a plateau during this period, the number of AIDS diagnoses among persons whose HIV infection is attributed to heterosexual transmission of HIV is likely to continue to increase through 1994. The number of living persons who have been diagnosed with AIDS is expected to increase from approximately 90,000 in January 1992 to approximately 120,000 in January 1995. There is, however, considerable uncertainty in these projections. For example, the plausible range for the number of persons initially diagnosed with AIDS in 1994 is 43,000-93,000. CDC estimates that, as of January 1992, 115,000-170,000 U.S. residents had severe immunosuppression (a CD4+ T-cell count200 cells/microL without a diagnosis of AIDS in an HIV-infected person). Only about 50,000 of these persons were receiving medical care for HIV-related conditions and were known to have a CD4+ T-cell count200 cells/microL. The number of persons with severe immunosuppression is expected to increase to 130,000-205,000 by January 1995, with the actual number more likely to be in the lower half of this range than the upper half. The expanded AIDS surveillance definition, which includes severe immunosuppression, is predicted to result in an increase of approximately 75% in the number of persons reported during 1993, but an increase of20% in 1994 compared with the number of persons who would have been reported had the definition not been changed.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS) more...

Dietary, serum, and tissue levels of copper and zinc were determined at baseline in a cohort of homosexual men to investigate the relationship of these factors to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) seropositivity and subsequent progression to AIDS. Using a nested case control design, 54 asymptomatic HIV-1 seropositives who later progressed to AIDS were compared with 54 HIV-1 seropositives who did not progress and 54 seronegatives (mean follow-up time 2.5 years). Serum levels of copper and zinc were estimated from frozen serum samples, tissue levels from stored toenail samples, and dietary intakes from a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. Neither dietary copper and zinc nor their levels in toenails were associated with HIV-1 seropositivity or progression to AIDS. However, serum copper levels were higher (p = 0.002) in HIV-1-seropositive progressors (mean = 115.6 micrograms/dl; SD = 17.1) than the seropositive nonprogressors (mean = 109.0 micrograms/dl; SD = 15.8) and the seronegatives (mean = 101.9 micrograms/dl; SD = 16.7). Conversely, serum zinc levels were lower (p = 0.016) in the seropositive progressors (mean = 85.2 micrograms/dl; SD = 11.5) than the seropositive nonprogressors (mean = 90.7 micrograms/dl; SD = 12.0) and the seronegatives (mean = 92.0 micrograms/dl; SD = 14.7). Furthermore, in a logistic regression, higher serum copper (odds ratio per 20-micrograms/dl increase = 2.23; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-4.87) and lower serum zinc (odds ratio per 20-micrograms/dl increase = 0.30; 95% confidence interval = 0.14-0.66) predicted progression to AIDS independently of baseline CD4+ lymphocyte level, age, and calorie-adjusted dietary intakes of both nutrients.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) more...

The objective of this paper is to develop statistical methods for estimating current and future numbers of individuals in different stages of the natural history of the human immunodeficiency (AIDS) virus infection and to evaluate the impact of therapeutic advances on these numbers. The approach is to extend the method of back-calculation to allow for a multistage model of natural history and to permit the hazard functions of progression from one stage to the next to depend on calendar time. Quasi-likelihood estimates of key quantities for evaluating health care needs can be obtained through iteratively reweighted least squares under weakly parametric models for the infection rate. An approach is proposed for incorporating into the analysis independent estimates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence obtained from epidemiologic surveys. The methods are applied to the AIDS epidemic in the United States. Short-term projections are given of both AIDS incidence and the numbers of HIV-infected AIDS-free individuals with CD4 cell depletion. The impact of therapeutic advances on these numbers is evaluated using a change-point hazard model. A number of important sources of uncertainty must be considered when interpreting the results, including uncertainties in the specified hazard functions of disease progression, in the parametric model for the infection rate, in the AIDS incidence data, in the efficacy of treatment, and in the proportions of HIV-infected individuals receiving treatment. more...

The pooling of individual serum samples to determine human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seropositivity was examined to assess whether testing pooled sera was technically feasible, cost-effective, and accurate for estimating seroprevalence in large population surveys. The sensitivities and specificities of three commercially available HIV enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits were tested using 65 serum pools of 15 individual serum samples each (975 total serum samples) at two different dilutions. With pooled sera, the Organon Teknika Bio-EnzaBead ELISA at half the dilution recommended by the manufacturer showed the best agreement with ELISA and Western blot results of individual sera. In subsequently testing 92 pools, each containing 15 individual serum samples from a population of American patients attending a sexually transmitted diseases clinic, the estimated seroprevalence was 5.27 compared with 4.93% in a test of 1,380 individual serum samples and 5.19% in a test of 4,028 individual serum samples from the same population. In an evaluation of 1,380 African patients using 10 serum samples per pool, the estimated seroprevalence was 5.79 compared with 6.16% in a test of individual sera. These results indicate that ELISA testing with pooled sera is highly sensitive and specific and appears to be a cost-effective means for estimating HIV seroprevalence in large population-based surveys. more...

This phase I study was conducted to determine the maximal safe concentration of 4-hydroperoxycyclophosphamide (4HC) that could be used for in vitro treatment of bone marrow from patients with acute leukemia undergoing autologous bone marrow transplantation. Concentrations of 40 to 120 micrograms/mL of 4HC were used in 30 patients with relapsed or high-risk acute leukemia and in six patients with nonleukemic malignancies. All patients received marrow-lethal cytoreductive therapy followed by infusion of the 4HC-treated marrow. Complete inhibition of granulocyte and macrophage colony-forming cells was obtained at 80 micrograms/mL. Nevertheless, only one transplant-related death and otherwise full hematologic recovery was observed at concentrations of 4HC up to 100 micrograms/mL. At 120 micrograms/mL, there were three transplant-related deaths, including two of the three patients who required the infusion of reserve marrow. Among the acute leukemia patients, three remain in complete remission at 1,337, 1,017, and 967 days after transplant. Among the nonleukemic patients, two remain in complete remission at 1,081 and 1,017 days after transplant. At the maximum safe concentration of 4HC (100 micrograms/mL), satisfactory hematologic recovery can be obtained, despite elimination of detectable hematopoietic progenitors. more...

Previous investigators have noted that the type of sampling scheme used to study the natural history of Huntington's disease can affect the observed age of onset distribution. Simulated data are presented to demonstrate that bias is introduced when onset characteristics derived from prevalence samples (i.e., samples of affected individuals alive in the population) are used to evaluate cofactors of disease onset and to compute genetic risk estimates for persons "at risk" of developing the disease. This study demonstrates that prevalence sampling underestimates the proportion of Huntington's disease cases in the population with later onset ages. Using plausible values for onset time, duration, and life expectancy, simulation results suggest that the paternal transmission effect on Huntington's disease onset is overestimated when based on prevalence data. more...

Several natural history studies of the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) have been based on the follow-up of individuals infected with the AIDS virus prior to enrollment. The natural time scale for studying the preclinical course of AIDS is the time since first infection; however, in these studies the time at infection was a random unknown quantity. The biases inherent in using follow-up time instead of time from infection are investigated for estimation of both the cumulative distribution function and the hazard ratio for proportional hazards models with both fixed and time-dependent covariates. Although the magnitudes of the biases depend on the shape of the epidemic curve, a number of bounds on the biases are established. These results are useful for interpreting prevalent cohort studies and then comparing them with studies on newly infected individuals in order to assess consistency of results across studies. more...

The objective of this paper is to consider the parametric analysis of paired censored survival data when additional covariate information is available, as in the Diabetic Retinopathy Study, which assessed the effectiveness of laser photocoagulation in delaying loss of visual acuity. Our first approach is to extend the fully parametric model of Clayton (1978, Biometrika 65, 141-151) to incorporate covariate information. Our second approach is to obtain parameter estimates from an independence working model together with robust variance estimates. The approaches are compared in terms of efficiency and computational considerations. A fundamental consideration in choosing a strategy for the analysis of paired survival data is whether the correlation within a pair is a nuisance parameter or a parameter of intrinsic scientific interest. The approaches are illustrated with the Diabetic Retinopathy Study. more...

Three methods for projecting the short-term course of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic are discussed: (a) empirical extrapolation, (b) the method of "back calculation," and (c) projections based on compartmental models. Extrapolation, which requires only data on AIDS incidence, is based on an assumed functional form and on the supposition that previous trends will continue. The method of back calculation incorporates both information on previous AIDS incidence and knowledge about the incubation period distribution. These calculations provide some evidence of how many infections occurred during previous time intervals. Although this information is not precise, particularly for the recent past, it is sufficient to produce stable short-term projections. Compartmental models can be used to project future prevalence of infection as well as future AIDS incidence. However, such projections are very dependent on assumptions about initial numbers of individuals infected, rates of transmission, changes in high-risk behaviors over time, and assumptions about transmission among subpopulations with differing transmission rates and initial prevalence of infection. Thus, compartmental models offer insights into the trends in an epidemic but do not currently provide a practical tool for obtaining quantitative projections. We present projections for various risk groups based on the method of back calculation and discuss the use of additional epidemiologic data to obtain accurate projections a decade in advance. more...

A method called partial completion is proposed for predicting the gain in precision of the Kaplan-Meier survival curve associated with additional follow-up and accrual. This is accomplished by using the initial data to predict the numbers of patients who would be at risk at the observed death times by the end of the proposed second follow-up period. A consistency result ensures that the predictors will be accurate in large samples while simulation results suggest that the predictors are accurate with moderate sample sizes. The procedures are applied to a bone marrow transplant study and the Channing House data set. more...

During a prospective study of the natural history of AIDS, 1001 homosexual or bisexual men were offered the opportunity to learn their HIV antibody status. Six hundred and seventy (67%) of the population who elected to do so were similar to the 331 (33%) people who declined in a number of baseline characteristics. All were counselled to practice safe sex. To determine whether disclosure of HIV serologic status affects subsequent sexual behavior, we examined changes at four time-points in three sexual activities during the previous 6 months: the number of male partners with whom the participant had (1) sexual intercourse, (2) unprotected anal receptive intercourse, and (3) unprotected anal insertive intercourse. All activities decreased strikingly over the 18-month study period. Following disclosure, the mean number of partners dropped to 47% of the baseline number in people remaining unaware of their antibody status, to 45% in people told that they were seropositive, and to 55% in people told that they were seronegative. The mean number of partners for younger seropositives declined less than that for older seropositives. The mean number of partners with whom unprotected anal receptive intercourse was practiced declined to 57% of baseline in unaware people, 42% in aware seropositives, and 62% in aware seronegatives. The mean number of partners with whom unprotected anal insertive intercourse was practiced declined to 52% of baseline in unaware people, 42% in aware seropositives and 59% in aware seronegatives. Disclosure of a negative test result led to a significantly smaller decline in these sexual activities.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) more...

This paper concerns large sample prediction intervals for the survival times of a future sample based on an initial sample of censored survival data. Simple procedures are developed for obtaining non-parametric and exponential prediction intervals for the future sample quantiles; the non-parametric interval results from inversion of an appropriate test statistic. A simulation study performed under various conditions evaluates the accuracy of the proposed intervals. An adjuvant chemotherapy study of breast cancer patients illustrates the methodology. more...

In a 1:1 matched-pairs case-control study, several pairs may have the same matching criteria. The objective of this paper is to consider various analytic approaches for odds ratio estimation in this situation. One approach is to perform the usual matched-pairs analysis; the alternative is to combine pairs into strata and compute the conditional maximum likelihood or Mantel-Haenszel estimate. Matched-pairs analysis based on theoretic and simulation results may give misleading inferences, although on average it performs nearly as well as the stratified analysis. The occasional poor performance of the matched-pairs analysis results from the possibility of obtaining an extreme number of discordant pairs due to the random pairing within a stratum. It is concluded that the prudent policy is to perform a stratified rather than a paired analysis, even at the expense of additional computation. more...

Although standard supportive care for bone marrow transplant (BMT) recipients includes total parenteral nutrition (TPN), it has not been shown that this is the most appropriate method of nutritional support. To determine whether current BMT recipients require TPN during the early recovery period, we conducted a prospective, randomized clinical trial comparing TPN and an individualized enteral feeding program (counseling, high protein snacks and/or tube feeding). Nutritional assessment included measurement of serum proteins, anthropometry, and body composition analysis. For the latter, total body water and extracellular fluid were measured by standard radioisotope dilution techniques and used to quantitate body cell mass and body fat plus extracellular solids (FAT + ECS). In 27 TPN patients, body composition 28 days after BMT, expressed as a percentage of baseline, was body cell mass, 100%, extracellular fluid, 108%, FAT + ECS, 108%, and in 30 enteral feeding program patients, was body cell mass, 93%, extracellular fluid, 104%, and FAT + ECS, 94%. Only the difference in FAT + ECS was statistically significant (p less than 0.01). Compared to the enteral feeding program, TPN was associated with more days of diuretic use, more frequent hyperglycemia, and more frequent catheter removal (prompted by catheter-related complications), but less frequent hypomagnesemia. There were no significant differences in the rate of hematopoietic recovery, length of hospitalization, or survival, but nutrition-related costs were 2.3 times greater in the TPN group. We conclude that TPN is not clearly superior to individualized enteral feeding and recommend that TPN be reserved for BMT patients who demonstrate intolerance to enteral feeding. more...

A study was undertaken to determine whether prediagnostic serum levels of retinol, beta-carotene, vitamin E, and selenium are lower in colon cancer cases compared with matched, population-based controls. Sera were available from 25,802 participants of a serum collection campaign conducted in Washington County, Maryland in 1974. The authors identified from these participants 72 white colon cancer cases, who were first diagnosed with colon cancer during 1975-1983, and 143 white, living, cancer-free controls, matched to cases on the basis of age, sex, month of serum collection, and enumeration in a 1975 private census of Washington County. The mean values of serum nutrients in cases and controls, respectively, were 59.1 micrograms/dl and 61.8 micrograms/dl for retinol (p = 0.22), 32.9 micrograms/dl and 34.4 micrograms/dl for beta carotene (p = 0.52), 1.17 mg/dl and 1.27 mg/dl for vitamin E (p = 0.10), and 11.0 micrograms/dl and 11.5 micrograms/dl for selenium (p = 0.07). There were no consistent trends in the relative odds of colon cancer by quintiles of serum levels for any of the nutrients; however, a relative odds of 3.2 (95% confidence interval = 1.1-8.7) was found when persons in the four lowest quintiles of retinol were compared with those in the highest. No interactions with matching factors or between serum nutrients and no confounding effects of covariables were identified through conditional logistic regression analysis. The findings of this study do not support a strong association of low serum levels of retinol, beta-carotene, vitamin E, and selenium with an increased risk of subsequent colon cancer. more...

In a population-based case-control study carried out in the Baltimore, Maryland metropolitan area, family cancer history for 342 chronic lymphocytic leukemia cases diagnosed in 1969-1982 revealed significantly higher risks of leukemia as well as other hematolymphoproliferative neoplasms and breast cancer among their first-degree relatives compared with reported occurrence of these neoplasms in first-degree relatives of 342 matched cancer controls and 342 matched controls without cancer. Siblings of case subjects also had a significant elevation of kidney cancer compared with siblings of controls. Only one of the affected case families (and no control family) included more than one additional member with leukemia. The results suggest a genetic component for leukemia occurrence in several case families, although the majority of cases of chronic lymphocytic leukemia appeared to be sporadic. The similarity of findings between the two comparisons (cases vs. cancer controls and cases vs. controls without cancer) diminishes the likelihood of recall bias as an explanation for the observed excess risks. more...

Methods are proposed for the analysis of the natural history of disease from screening data when it cannot be assumed that untreated preclinical disease always progresses to clinical disease. The methodology is based on a two-stage model for preclinical disease in which stage 1 lesions may or may not progress to stage 2, but all stage 2 lesions progress to clinical disease. The focus is on joint estimation of the total preclinical duration and the sensitivity of the screening test. A partial likelihood is proposed for the analysis of prospectively collected screening data, and an analogous conditional likelihood is proposed for retrospective data. Some special cases for the joint sojourn distribution of the two stages are considered, including the independent model and limiting models where the duration of stage 2 is short relative to stage 1. The methods are applied to a case-control study of cervical cancer screening in Northeast Scotland. more...

Cytolytic and helper T cells exhibit, in addition to their specificity for foreign antigen, a restriction specificity for self MHC gene products. The present study was designed to assess the degree of diversity within the repertoire of receptors that are involved in T cell recognition of self MHC gene products. For this purpose, we generated a series of murine cytolytic T lymphocyte (CTL) clones specific for a hapten antigen and restricted to the self MHC gene product H-2Kb. An analysis of the hapten fine specificity of these clones by using hapten analogues revealed the presence of substantial diversity within the repertoire of CTL receptors specific for the hapten. The degree of diversity within the repertoire of self H-2 recognition structures on these clones was assessed by testing clones on panels of syngeneic, congenic H-2K disparate, and H-2Kb mutant target cells bearing varying amounts of antigen. A striking degree of heterogeneity in H-2K recognition was found among these H-2Kb restricted CTL. We estimate that there are probably a minimum of 65 different patterns of H-2K recognition among these clones. Our results suggest a high degree of diversity exists within the repertoire of self MHC recognition structures on antigen-specific T cells restricted to a single self MHC gene product. more...