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The El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is typically associated with below-average cool-season rainfall in southeastern Australia (SEA). However, there is also large case-to-case variability on monthly time-scales. Despite recent progress in understanding the links between remote climate drivers and this variability, the underlying dynamical processes are not fully understood. This reanalysis-based study aims to advance the dynamical understanding by quantifying the contribution of midlatitude weather systems to monthly precipitation anomalies over SEA during the austral winter–spring season. A k-means clustering reveals four rainfall anomaly patterns with above-average rainfall (Cluster 1), below-average rainfall (Cluster 2), above-average rainfall along the East Coast (Cluster 3) and along the South Coast (Cluster 4). Cluster 2 occurs most frequently during El Niño, which highlights the general suppression of SEA rainfall during these events. However, the remaining three clusters with local above-average rainfall are found in ∼52% of all El Niño months. Changes of weather system frequency determine the respective rainfall anomaly pattern. Results indicate significantly more cut-off lows and warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over SEA in El Niño Cluster 1 and significantly fewer in El Niño Cluster 2. In El Niño Cluster 3, enhanced blocking south of Australia favours cut-off lows leading to increased rainfall along the East Coast. Positive rainfall anomalies along the South Coast in El Niño Cluster 4 are associated with frontal rainfall due to an equatorward shift of the midlatitude storm track. Most of the rainfall is produced by WCBs and cut-off lows but the contributions strongly vary between the clusters. In all clusters, rainfall anomalies result from changes in rainfall frequency more than in rainfall intensity. Backward trajectories of WCB and cut-off low rainfall highlight the importance of moist air masses from the Coral Sea and the northwest coast of Australia during wet months.

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0329.1 This review was partly initiated at the World Meteorological Organization’s Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones in 2014. The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones often has an important impact on the nature and predictability of the midlatitude flow. This review synthesizes the current understanding of the dynamical and physical processes that govern this impact and highlights the relationship of downstream development during ET to highimpact weather, with a focus on downstreamregions. It updates a previous review from2003 and identifies new and emerging challenges and future research needs. First, the mechanisms through which the transitioning cyclone impacts the midlatitude flow in its immediate vicinity are discussed. This ‘‘direct impact’’manifests in the formation of a jet streak and the amplification of a ridge directly downstream of the cyclone. This initial flow modification triggers or amplifies amidlatitude Rossby wave packet,which disperses the impact ofETinto downstream regions (downstream impact) and may contribute to the formation of high-impact weather. Details are provided concerning the impact of ET on forecast uncertainty in downstream regions and on the impact of observations on forecast skill. The sources and characteristics of the following key features and processes thatmay determine the manifestation of the impact of ET on the midlatitude flow are discussed: the upper-tropospheric divergent outflow, mainly associated with latent heat release in the troposphere below, and the phasing between the transitioning cyclone and the midlatitude wave pattern. Improving the representation of diabatic processes during ET in models and a climatological assessment of the ET’s impact on downstream high-impact weather are examples for future research directions. German Science Foundation (DFG) Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) PZ00P2_148177/1 Helmholtz Association VH-NG-1243 Transregional Collaborative Research Center SFB/TRR 165 NSF AGS-1240502 NSF AGS- 1355960 NRL Base Program PE 0601153N ONR PE 0602435N Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence CE110001028 NSF ATM-1461753 ONR N000140910526

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99 (8), ISSN:0003-0007, ISSN:1520-0477

In both 2003 and 2018 a heatwave in Scandinavia in July was followed by a heatwave in Central Europe in August. Whereas the transition occurred abruptly in 2003, it was gradual in 2018 with a 12‐day period of concurrent heatwaves in both regions. This study contrasts these two events in the context of a heatwave climatology to elucidate the dynamics of both concurrent and sequential heatwaves. Central European and, in particular, concurrent heatwaves are climatologically associated with weak pressure gradient (WPG) events over Central Europe, which indicate the absence of synoptic activity over this region. One synoptic pattern associated with such events is Scandinavian blocking. This pattern is at the same time conducive to heatwaves in Scandinavia, thereby providing a mechanism by which Scandinavian and Central European heatwaves can co‐occur. Further, the association of WPG events with Scandinavian blocking constitutes a mechanism that allows heatwaves to grow beyond the perimeter of the synoptic system from which they emanated. A trajectory analysis of the source regions of the low‐level air incorporated in the heatwaves indicates rapidly changing air mass sources throughout the heatwaves in both regions, but no recycling of heat from one heatwave to the other. This finding is line with a composite analysis indicating that transitions between Scandinavian and Central European heatwaves are merely a random coincidence of heatwave onset and decay., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146 (732), ISSN:0035-9009, ISSN:1477-870X

Nocturnal low-level stratus clouds (LLCs) are frequently observed in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over southern West Africa (SWA) during the summer monsoon season. Considering the effect these clouds have on the surface energy and radiation budgets as well as on the diurnal cycle of the ABL, they are undoubtedly important for the regional climate. However, an adequate representation of LLCs in the state-of-the-art weather and climate models is still a challenge, which is largely due to the lack of high-quality observations in this region and gaps in understanding of underlying processes. In several recent studies, a unique and comprehensive data set collected in summer 2016 during the DACCIWA (Dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa) ground-based field campaign was used for the first observational analyses of the parameters and physical processes relevant for the LLC formation over SWA. However, occasionally stratus-free nights occur during the monsoon season as well. Using observations and ERA5 reanalysis, we investigate differences in the boundary-layer conditions during 6 stratus-free and 20 stratus nights observed during the DACCIWA campaign. Our results suggest that the interplay between three major mechanisms is crucial for the formation of LLCs during the monsoon season: (i) the onset time and strength of the nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ), (ii) horizontal cold-air advection, and (iii) background moisture level. Namely, weaker or later onset of NLLJ leads to a reduced contribution from horizontal cold-air advection. This in turn results in weaker cooling, and thus saturation is not reached. Such deviation in the dynamics of the NLLJ is related to the arrival of a cold air mass propagating northwards from the coast, called Gulf of Guinea maritime inflow. Additionally, stratus-free nights occur when the intrusions of dry air masses, originating from, for example, central or south Africa, reduce the background moisture over large parts of SWA. Backward-trajectory analysis suggests that another possible reason for clear nights is descending air, which originated from drier levels above the marine boundary layer.

Weather regime forecasts are a prominent use case of sub‐seasonal prediction in the midlatitudes. A systematic evaluation and understanding of year‐round sub‐seasonal regime forecast performance is still missing, however. Here we evaluate the representation of and forecast skill for seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes in sub‐seasonal reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts. Forecast calibration improves regime frequency biases and forecast skill most strongly in summer, but scarcely in winter, due to considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer. The average regime skill horizon in winter is about 5 days longer than in summer and spring, and 3 days longer than in autumn. The Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking tend to have the longest year‐round skill horizon, which is driven by their high persistence in winter. The year‐round skill is lowest for the European Blocking, which is common for all seasons but most pronounced in winter and spring. For the related, more northern Scandinavian Blocking, the skill is similarly low in winter and spring but higher in summer and autumn. We further show that the winter average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV), but reduced following a weak SPV. Likewise, the year‐round average regime skill horizon tends to be enhanced following phases 4 and 7 of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) but reduced following phase 2, driven by winter but also autumn and spring. Our study thus reveals promising potential for year‐round sub‐seasonal regime predictions. Further model improvements can be achieved by reduction of the considerable large‐scale flow biases in summer, better understanding and modeling of blocking in the European region, and better exploitation of the potential predictability provided by weak SPV states and specific MJO phases in winter and the transition seasons., The overall sub‐seasonal forecast performance (biases and skill) for predicting seven year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes is highest in winter and lowest in summer. The year‐round skill horizon is shortest for the European Blocking and longest for the Zonal Regime and Greenland Blocking (see figure). Furthermore, the winter skill horizon tends to be enhanced following a strong stratospheric polar vortex but reduced following a weak one. Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 4 and 7 tend to increase and phase 2 to decrease the year‐round skill horizon., Helmholtz‐Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656