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The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sub-variants BA.2.86 and JN.1 contain multiple mutations in the spike protein that were not present in previous variants of concern and Omicron sub-variants. Preliminary research suggests that these variants reduce the neutralizing capability of antibodies induced by vaccines, which is particularly significant for JN.1. This raises concern as many widely deployed COVID-19 vaccines are based on the spike protein of the ancestral Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2. While T cell responses have been shown to be robust against previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, less is known about the impact of mutations in BA.2.86 and JN.1 on T cell responses. We evaluate the effect of mutations specific to BA.2.86 and JN.1 on experimentally determined T cell epitopes derived from the spike protein of the ancestral Wuhan strain and the spike protein of the XBB.1.5 strain that has been recommended as a booster vaccine. Our data suggest that BA.2.86 and JN.1 affect numerous T cell epitopes in spike compared to previous variants; however, the widespread loss of T cell recognition against these variants is unlikely. © 2024 by the authors.

Antigenic characterization of circulating influenza A virus (IAV) isolates is routinely assessed by using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays for surveillance purposes. It is also used to determine the need for annual influenza vaccine updates as well as for pandemic preparedness. Performing antigenic characterization of IAV on a global scale is confronted with high costs, animal availability, and other practical challenges. Here we present a machine learning model that accurately predicts (normalized) outputs of HI assays involving circulating human IAV H3N2 viruses, using their hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1) sequences and associated metadata. Each season, the model learns an updated nonlinear mapping of genetic to antigenic changes using data from past seasons only. The model accurately distinguishes antigenic variants from non-variants and adaptively characterizes seasonal dynamics of HA1 sites having the strongest influence on antigenic change. Antigenic predictions produced by the model can aid influenza surveillance, public health management, and vaccine strain selection activities. © The Author(s) 2024.

The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope glycoprotein E1 forms a non-covalent heterodimer with E2, the main target of neutralizing antibodies. How E1-E2 interactions influence viral fitness and contribute to resistance to E2-specific antibodies remain largely unknown. We investigate this problem using a combination of fitness landscape and evolutionary modeling. Our analysis indicates that E1 and E2 proteins collectively mediate viral fitness and suggests that fitness-compensating E1 mutations may accelerate escape from E2-targeting antibodies. Our analysis also identifies a set of E2-specific human monoclonal antibodies that are predicted to be especially resilient to escape via genetic variation in both E1 and E2, providing directions for robust HCV vaccine development. © The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-associated disease and liver cancer. Of the major HCV subtypes, patients infected with subtype 1b have been associated with having a higher risk of developing chronic infection and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, underlying reasons for this increased disease severity remain unknown. Here, we provide an evolutionary rationale, based on a comparative study of fitness landscape and in-host evolutionary models of the E2 glycoprotein of HCV subtypes 1a and 1b. Our analysis demonstrates that a higher chronicity rate of 1b may be attributed to lower fitness constraints, enabling 1b viruses to more easily escape antibody responses. More generally, our results suggest that differences in evolutionary constraints between HCV subtypes may be an important factor in mediating distinct disease outcomes. Our analysis also identifies antibodies that appear escape-resistant against both subtypes 1a and 1b, providing directions for designing HCV vaccines having cross-subtype protection. © 2021 The Authors

Omicron, the most recent SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC), harbours multiple mutations in the spike protein that were not observed in previous VOCs. Initial studies suggest Omicron to substantially reduce the neutralizing capability of antibodies induced from vaccines and previous infection. However, its effect on T cell responses remains to be determined. Here, we assess the effect of Omicron mutations on known T cell epitopes and report data suggesting T cell responses to remain broadly robust against this new variant.

New and more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2 have arisen multiple times over the course of the pandemic. Rapidly identifying mutations that affect transmission could facilitate outbreak control efforts and highlight new variants that warrant further study. Here we develop an analytical epidemiological model that infers the transmission effects of mutations from genomic surveillance data. Applying our model to SARS-CoV-2 data across many regions, we find multiple mutations that strongly affect the transmission rate, both within and outside the Spike protein. We also quantify the effects of travel and competition between different lineages on the inferred transmission effects of mutations. Importantly, our model detects lineages with increased transmission as they arise. We infer significant transmission advantages for the Alpha and Delta variants within a week of their appearances in regional data, when their regional frequencies were only around 1%. Our model thus enables the rapid identification of variants and mutations that affect transmission from genomic surveillance data.

Beginning in May 2022, a novel cluster of monkeypox virus infections was detected in humans. This virus has spread rapidly to non-endemic countries, sparking global concern. Specific vaccines based on the vaccinia virus (VACV) have demonstrated high efficacy against monkeypox viruses in the past and are considered an important outbreak control measure. Viruses observed in the current outbreak carry distinct genetic variations that have the potential to affect vaccineinduced immune recognition. Here, by investigating genetic variation with respect to orthologous immunogenic vaccinia-virus proteins, we report data that anticipates immune responses induced by VACV-based vaccines, including the currently available MVA-BN and ACAM2000 vaccines, to remain highly cross-reactive against the newly observed monkeypox viruses.

Background: Etiopathogenesis of the clinical variability of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains mostly unknown. In this study, we investigate the role of killer cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR)/human leukocyte antigen class-I (HLA-I) interactions in the susceptibility and severity of COVID-19. Methods: We performed KIR and HLA-I genotyping and natural killer cell (NKc) receptors immunophenotyping in 201 symptomatic patients and 210 noninfected controls. Results: The NKcs with a distinctive immunophenotype, suggestive of recent activation (KIR2DS4low CD16low CD226low CD56high TIGIThigh NKG2Ahigh), expanded in patients with severe COVID-19. This was associated with a higher frequency of the functional A-telomeric activating KIR2DS4 in severe versus mild and/or moderate patients and controls (83.7%, 55.7% and 36.2%, P < 7.7 × 10−9). In patients with mild and/or moderate infection, HLA-B*15:01 was associated with higher frequencies of activating B-telomeric KIR3DS1 compared with patients with other HLA-B*15 subtypes and noninfected controls (90.9%, 42.9%, and 47.3%; P < .002; Pc = 0.022). This strongly suggests that HLA-B*15:01 specifically presenting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 peptides could form a neoligand interacting with KIR3DS1. Likewise, a putative neoligand for KIR2DS4 could arise from other HLA-I molecules presenting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 peptides expressed on infected an/or activated lung antigen-presenting cells. Conclusions: Our results support a crucial role of NKcs in the clinical variability of COVID-19 with specific KIR/ligand interactions associated with disease severity.

Purpose: To develop a deep learning (DL) system that can detect referable diabetic retinopathy (RDR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) from images obtained on ultra-widefield scanning laser ophthalmoscope (UWF-SLO). Design: Observational, cross-sectional study. Participants: A total of 9392 UWF-SLO images of 1903 eyes from 1022 subjects with diabetes from Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, India, and Argentina. Methods: All images were labeled according to the presence or absence of RDR and the presence or absence of VTDR. Labeling was performed by retina specialists from fundus examination, according to the International Clinical Diabetic Retinopathy Disease Severity Scale. Three convolutional neural networks (ResNet50) were trained with a transfer-learning procedure for assessing gradability and identifying VTDR and RDR. External validation was performed on 4 datasets spanning different geographical regions. Main Outcome Measures: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC); area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC); sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the DL system in gradability assessment; and detection of RDR and VTDR. Results: For gradability assessment, the system achieved an AUROC of 0.923 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.892–0.947), sensitivity of 86.5% (95% CI, 77.6–92.8), and specificity of 82.1% (95% CI, 77.3–86.2) for the primary validation dataset, and >0.82 AUROCs, >79.6% sensitivity, and >70.4% specificity for the geographical external validation datasets. For detecting RDR and VTDR, the AUROCs were 0.981 (95% CI, 0.977–0.984) and 0.966 (95% CI, 0.961–0.971), with sensitivities of 94.9% (95% CI, 92.3–97.9) and 87.2% (95% CI, 81.5–91.6), specificities of 95.1% (95% CI, 90.6–97.9) and 95.8% (95% CI, 93.3–97.6), and positive predictive values (PPVs) of 98.0% (95% CI, 96.1–99.0) and 91.1% (95% CI, 86.3–94.3) for the primary validation dataset, respectively. The AUROCs and accuracies for detecting both RDR and VT

Growing evidence suggests that T cells may play a critical role in combating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Hence, COVID-19 vaccines that can elicit a robust T cell response may be particularly important. The design, development and experimental evaluation of such vaccines is aided by an understanding of the landscape of T cell epitopes of SARS-CoV-2, which is largely unknown. Due to the challenges of identifying epitopes experimentally, many studies have proposed the use of in silico methods. Here, we present a review of the in silico methods that have been used for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes. These methods employ a diverse set of technical approaches, often rooted in machine learning. A performance comparison is provided based on the ability to identify a specific set of immunogenic epitopes that have been determined experimentally to be targeted by T cells in convalescent COVID-19 patients, shedding light on the relative performance merits of the different approaches adopted by the in silico studies. The review also puts forward perspectives for future research directions.

Dengue virus (DENV)-associated disease is a growing threat to public health across the globe. Co-circulating as four different serotypes, DENV poses a unique challenge for vaccine design as immunity to one serotype predisposes a person to severe and potentially lethal disease upon infection from other serotypes. Recent experimental studies suggest that an effective vaccine against DENV should elicit a strong T cell response against all serotypes, which could be achieved by directing T cell responses toward cross-serotypically conserved epitopes while avoiding serotype-specific ones. Here, we used experimentally-determined DENV T cell epitopes and patient-derived DENV sequences to assess the cross-serotypic variability of the epitopes. We reveal a distinct near-binary pattern of epitope conservation across serotypes for a large number of DENV epitopes. Based on the conservation profile, we identify a set of 55 epitopes that are highly conserved in at least 3 serotypes. Most of the highly conserved epitopes lie in functionally important regions of DENV non-structural proteins. By considering the global distribution of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles associated with these DENV epitopes, we identify a potentially robust subset of HLA class I and class II restricted epitopes that can serve as targets for a universal T cell-based vaccine against DENV while covering ~99% of the global population.

SUMMARY: Learning underlying correlation patterns in data is a central problem across scientific fields. Maximum entropy models present an important class of statistical approaches for addressing this problem. However, accurately and efficiently inferring model parameters are a major challenge, particularly for modern high-dimensional applications such as in biology, for which the number of parameters is enormous. Previously, we developed a statistical method, minimum probability flow-Boltzmann Machine Learning (MPF-BML), for performing fast and accurate inference of maximum entropy model parameters, which was applied to genetic sequence data to estimate the fitness landscape for the surface proteins of human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis C virus. To facilitate seamless use of MPF-BML and encourage more widespread application to data in diverse fields, we present a standalone cross-platform package of MPF-BML which features an easy-to-use graphical user interface. The package only requires the input data (protein sequence data or data of multiple configurations of a complex system with large number of variables) and returns the maximum entropy model parameters. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The MPF-BML software is publicly available under the MIT License at https://github.com/ahmedaq/MPF-BML-GUI. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There is an imminent need to better understand this new virus and to develop ways to control its spread. In this study, we sought to gain insights for vaccine design against SARS-CoV-2 by considering the high genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which caused the outbreak in 2003, and leveraging existing immunological studies of SARS-CoV. By screening the experimentally-determined SARS-CoV-derived B cell and T cell epitopes in the immunogenic structural proteins of SARS-CoV, we identified a set of B cell and T cell epitopes derived from the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins that map identically to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. As no mutation has been observed in these identified epitopes among the 120 available SARS-CoV-2 sequences (as of 21 February 2020), immune targeting of these epitopes may potentially offer protection against this novel virus. For the T cell epitopes, we performed a population coverage analysis of the associated MHC alleles and proposed a set of epitopes that is estimated to provide broad coverage globally, as well as in China. Our findings provide a screened set of epitopes that can help guide experimental efforts towards the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

Vaccination has essentially eradicated poliovirus. Yet, its mutation rate is higher than that of viruses like HIV, for which no effective vaccine exists. To investigate this, we infer a fitness model for the poliovirus viral protein 1 (vp1), which successfully predicts in vitro fitness measurements. This is achieved by first developing a probabilistic model for the prevalence of vp1 sequences that enables us to isolate and remove data that are subject to strong vaccine-derived biases. The intrinsic fitness constraints derived for vp1, a capsid protein subject to antibody responses, are compared with those of analogous HIV proteins. We find that vp1 evolution is subject to tighter constraints, limiting its ability to evade vaccine-induced immune responses. Our analysis also indicates that circulating poliovirus strains in unimmunized populations serve as a reservoir that can seed outbreaks in spatio-temporally localized sub-optimally immunized populations. © 2020, The Author(s).

The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There is an imminent need to better understand this new virus and to develop ways to control its spread. In this study, we sought to gain insights for vaccine design against SARS-CoV-2 by considering the high genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which caused the outbreak in 2003, and leveraging existing immunological studies of SARS-CoV. By screening the experimentally-determined SARS-CoV-derived B cell and T cell epitopes in the immunogenic structural proteins of SARS-CoV, we identified a set of B cell and T cell epitopes derived from the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins that map identically to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. As no mutation has been observed in these identified epitopes among the 120 available SARS-CoV-2 sequences (as of 21 February 2020), immune targeting of these epitopes may potentially offer protection against this novel virus. For the T cell epitopes, we performed a population coverage analysis of the associated MHC alleles and proposed a set of epitopes that is estimated to provide broad coverage globally, as well as in China. Our findings provide a screened set of epitopes that can help guide experimental efforts towards the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

Patterns of mutational correlations, learnt from protein sequences, have been shown to be informative of co-evolutionary sectors that are tightly linked to functional and/or structural properties of proteins. Previously, we developed a statistical inference method, robust co-evolutionary analysis (RoCA), to reliably predict co-evolutionary sectors of proteins, while controlling for statistical errors caused by limited data. RoCA was demonstrated on multiple viral proteins, with the inferred sectors showing close correspondences with experimentally-known biochemical domains. To facilitate seamless use of RoCA and promote more widespread application to protein data, here we present a standalone cross-platform package ‘RocaSec’ which features an easy-to-use GUI. The package only requires the multiple sequence alignment of a protein for inferring the co-evolutionary sectors. In addition, when information on the protein biochemical domains is provided, RocaSec returns the corresponding statistical association between the inferred sectors and biochemical domains.

Patterns of mutational correlations, learnt from protein sequences, have been shown to be informative of co-evolutionary sectors that are tightly linked to functional and/or structural properties of proteins. Previously, we developed a statistical inference method, robust co-evolutionary analysis (RoCA), to reliably predict co-evolutionary sectors of proteins, while controlling for statistical errors caused by limited data. RoCA was demonstrated on multiple viral proteins, with the inferred sectors showing close correspondences with experimentally-known biochemical domains. To facilitate seamless use of RoCA and promote more widespread application to protein data, here we present a standalone cross-platform package ‘RocaSec’ which features an easy-to-use GUI. The package only requires the multiple sequence alignment of a protein for inferring the co-evolutionary sectors. In addition, when information on the protein biochemical domains is provided, RocaSec returns the corresponding statistical association between the inferred sectors and biochemical domains.

Motivation Patterns of mutational correlations, learnt from patient-derived sequences of HIV proteins, are informative of biochemically-linked networks of interacting sites that may enable viral escape from the host immune system. Accurate identification of these networks is important for rationally designing vaccines which can effectively block immune escape pathways. Previous computational methods have partly identified such networks by examining the principal components (PCs) of the mutational correlation matrix of HIV Gag proteins. However, driven by a conservative approach, these methods analyze the few dominant (strongest) PCs, potentially missing information embedded within the sub-dominant (relatively weaker) ones that may be important for vaccine design. Results By using sequence data for HIV Gag, complemented by model-based simulations, we revealed that certain networks of interacting sites that appear important for vaccine design purposes are not accurately reflected by the dominant PCs. Rather, these networks are encoded jointly by both dominant and sub-dominant PCs. By incorporating information from the sub-dominant PCs, we identified a network of interacting sites of HIV Gag that associated very strongly with viral control. Based on this network we propose several new candidates for a potent T-cell-based HIV vaccine.

Isolation of broadly neutralizing human monoclonal antibodies (HmAbs) targeting the E2 glycoprotein of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has sparked hope for effective vaccine development. Nonetheless, escape mutations have been reported. Ideally, a potent vaccine should elicit HmAbs that target regions of E2 that are most difficult to escape. Here, aimed at addressing this challenge, we develop a predictive in-silico evolutionary model for E2 that identifies one such region, a specific antigenic domain, making it an attractive target for a robust antibody response. Specific broadly neutralizing HmAbs that appear difficult to escape from are also identified. By providing a framework for identifying vulnerable regions of E2 and for assessing the potency of specific antibodies, our results can aid the rational design of an effective prophylactic HCV vaccine. © 2019, The Author(s).

Motivation Patterns of mutational correlations, learnt from patient-derived sequences of HIV proteins, are informative of biochemically-linked networks of interacting sites that may enable viral escape from the host immune system. Accurate identification of these networks is important for rationally designing vaccines which can effectively block immune escape pathways. Previous computational methods have partly identified such networks by examining the principal components (PCs) of the mutational correlation matrix of HIV Gag proteins. However, driven by a conservative approach, these methods analyze the few dominant (strongest) PCs, potentially missing information embedded within the sub-dominant (relatively weaker) ones that may be important for vaccine design. Results By using sequence data for HIV Gag, complemented by model-based simulations, we revealed that certain networks of interacting sites that appear important for vaccine design purposes are not accurately reflected by the dominant PCs. Rather, these networks are encoded jointly by both dominant and sub-dominant PCs. By incorporating information from the sub-dominant PCs, we identified a network of interacting sites of HIV Gag that associated very strongly with viral control. Based on this network we propose several new candidates for a potent T-cell-based HIV vaccine.

Mutational correlation patterns found in population-level sequence data for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) have been demonstrated to be informative of viral fitness. Such patterns can be seen as footprints of the intrinsic functional constraints placed on viral evolution under diverse selective pressures. Here, considering multiple HIV and HCV proteins, we demonstrate that these mutational correlations encode a modular co-evolutionary structure that is tightly linked to the structural and functional properties of the respective proteins. Specifically, by introducing a robust statistical method based on sparse principal component analysis, we identify near-disjoint sets of collectively-correlated residues (sectors) having mostly a one-to-one association to largely distinct structural or functional domains. This suggests that the distinct phenotypic properties of HIV/HCV proteins often give rise to quasi-independent modes of evolution, with each mode involving a sparse and localized network of mutational interactions. Moreover, individual inferred sectors of HIV are shown to carry immunological significance, providing insight for guiding targeted vaccine strategies. © 2018 Quadeer et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

We present a tailored sparse principal component analysis approach to identify parts of the Hepatitis C virus (HCV) proteome that may be particularly susceptible to immune pressure and thus may help in the design of an effective vaccine. Considering the highly data-limited HCV NS5B protein, the proposed method reveals two reasonably small sets of potentially vulnerable sites which can serve as new vaccine targets. The potential importance of the inferred sets of sites is emphasized through comparison with available clinical and biochemical data. Specifically, both groups of sites have functional significance, associated with viral replication, and one of the groups is found to be strongly targeted by immune systems of individuals who clear HCV naturally, without drugs.

The advancement in fast DNA sequencing technologies in the last decade has opened up unprecedented opportunities to explore a diverse set of questions in biomedical research. This thesis utilizes statistics and statistical signal processing tools for analyzing sequences of viral proteins to uncover novel insights into biological function and structure. Robust correlation matrix estimation for high-dimensional data plays a major role in addressing such complicated biological problems. The important biological information revealed using the analysis presented in this work can be useful in multiple fields: in structural biology to identify parts of the viral protein important for structural stability; in biochemistry to study the role of particular parts in performing different functions associated with the viral protein; and in immunology to predict potential vulnerable parts of the virus, targeting which can aid in designing potent vaccines. The first part of this work presents a novel vaccine design for an extremely dangerous pathogen, Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). Chronic HCV infection is one of the leading causes of liver cancer, affecting around 3% of the world’s population. Current treatments for HCV are expensive and there is no working vaccine. The vexing problem related to the design of a HCV vaccine is its extreme variability that helps it to evade immune surveillance. A random matrix theory (RMT) based “noise cleaning” correlation matrix estimator is used to reveal a group of “multi-dimensionally conserved sites” in a HCV protein that may be most susceptible to immune pressure, despite the high mutability of the virus. This statistical approach demonstrates for the first time the existence of such vulnerable parts in HCV research, targeting which can lead to the design of efficacious vaccine against this scourge. These results are backed up by linking with clinical evidence available in the literature. Two vaccine designs leveraging such information are also pro