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Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is widely applied in sectors such as pharmaceuticals and e-commerce to evaluate the efficacy of novel products or policies from offline datasets. This paper introduces a causal deepset framework that relaxes several key structural assumptions, primarily the mean-field assumption, prevalent in existing OPE methodologies that handle spatio-temporal interference. These traditional assumptions frequently prove inadequate in real-world settings, thereby restricting the capability of current OPE methods to effectively address complex interference effects. In response, we advocate for the implementation of the permutation invariance (PI) assumption. This innovative approach enables the data-driven, adaptive learning of the mean-field function, offering a more flexible estimation method beyond conventional averaging. Furthermore, we present novel algorithms that incorporate the PI assumption into OPE and thoroughly examine their theoretical foundations. Our numerical analyses demonstrate that this novel approach yields significantly more precise estimations than existing baseline algorithms, thereby substantially improving the practical applicability and effectiveness of OPE methodologies. A Python implementation of our proposed method is available at https://github.com/BIG-S2/Causal-Deepsets.

Long-term user engagement (LTE) optimization in sequential recommender systems (SRS) is shown to be suited by reinforcement learning (RL) which finds a policy to maximize long-term rewards. Meanwhile, RL has its shortcomings, particularly requiring a large number of online samples for exploration, which is risky in real-world applications. One of the appealing ways to avoid the risk is to build a simulator and learn the optimal recommendation policy in the simulator. In LTE optimization, the simulator is to simulate multiple users' daily feedback for given recommendations. However, building a user simulator with no reality-gap, i.e., can predict user's feedback exactly, is unrealistic because the users' reaction patterns are complex and historical logs for each user are limited, which might mislead the simulator-based recommendation policy. In this paper, we present a practical simulator-based recommender policy training approach, Simulation-to-Recommendation (Sim2Rec) to handle the reality-gap problem for LTE optimization. Specifically, Sim2Rec introduces a simulator set to generate various possibilities of user behavior patterns, then trains an environment-parameter extractor to recognize users' behavior patterns in the simulators. Finally, a context-aware policy is trained to make the optimal decisions on all of the variants of the users based on the inferred environment-parameters. The policy is transferable to unseen environments (e.g., the real world) directly as it has learned to recognize all various user behavior patterns and to make the correct decisions based on the inferred environment-parameters. Experiments are conducted in synthetic environments and a real-world large-scale ride-hailing platform, DidiChuxing. The results show that Sim2Rec achieves significant performance improvement, and produces robust recommendations in unseen environments.

Ridesharing platforms are a type of two-sided marketplace where ``supply-demand balance'' is critical for market efficiency and yet is complex to define and analyze. We present a unified analytical framework based on the graph-based equilibrium metric (GEM) for quantifying the supply-demand spatiotemporal state and efficiency of a ridesharing marketplace. GEM was developed as a generalized Wasserstein distance between the supply and demand distributions in a ridesharing market and has been used as an evaluation metric for algorithms expected to improve supply-demand alignment. Building upon GEM, we develop SD-GEM, a dual-perspective (supply- and demand-side) representation of rideshare market equilibrium. We show that there are often disparities between the two views and examine how this dual-view leads to the notion of market efficiency, in which we propose novel statistical tests for capturing improvement and explaining the underlying driving factors.

A fundamental question in any peer-to-peer ride-sharing system is how to, both effectively and efficiently, meet the request of passengers to balance the supply and demand in real time. On the passenger side, traditional approaches focus on pricing strategies by increasing the probability of users' call to adjust the distribution of demand. However, previous methods do not take into account the impact of changes in strategy on future supply and demand changes, which means drivers are repositioned to different destinations due to passengers' calls, which will affect the driver's income for a period of time in the future. Motivated by this observation, we make an attempt to optimize the distribution of demand to handle this problem by learning the long-term spatio-temporal values as a guideline for pricing strategy. In this study, we propose an offline deep reinforcement learning based method focusing on the demand side to improve the utilization of transportation resources and customer satisfaction. We adopt a spatio-temporal learning method to learn the value of different time and location, then incentivize the ride requests of passengers to adjust the distribution of demand to balance the supply and demand in the system. In particular, we model the problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP).

In this study, a real-time dispatching algorithm based on reinforcement learning is proposed and for the first time, is deployed in large scale. Current dispatching methods in ridehailing platforms are dominantly based on myopic or rule-based non-myopic approaches. Reinforcement learning enables dispatching policies that are informed of historical data and able to employ the learned information to optimize returns of expected future trajectories. Previous studies in this field yielded promising results, yet have left room for further improvements in terms of performance gain, self-dependency, transferability, and scalable deployment mechanisms. The present study proposes a standalone RL-based dispatching solution that is equipped with multiple mechanisms to ensure robust and efficient on-policy learning and inference while being adaptable for full-scale deployment. A new form of value updating based on temporal difference is proposed that is more adapted to the inherent uncertainty of the problem. For the driver-order assignment, a customized utility function is proposed that when tuned based on the statistics of the market, results in remarkable performance improvement and interpretability. In addition, for reducing the risk of cancellation after drivers' assignment, an adaptive graph pruning strategy based on the multi-arm bandit problem is introduced. The method is evaluated using offline simulation with real data and yields notable performance improvement. In addition, the algorithm is deployed online in multiple cities under DiDi's operation for A/B testing and is launched in one of the major international markets as the primary mode of dispatch. The deployed algorithm shows over 1.3% improvement in total driver income from A/B testing. In addition, by causal inference analysis, as much as 5.3% improvement in major performance metrics is detected after full-scale deployment., Comment: submitted to KDD'22

Recent works on ride-sharing order dispatching have highlighted the importance of taking into account both the spatial and temporal dynamics in the dispatching process for improving the transportation system efficiency. At the same time, deep reinforcement learning has advanced to the point where it achieves superhuman performance in a number of fields. In this work, we propose a deep reinforcement learning based solution for order dispatching and we conduct large scale online A/B tests on DiDi's ride-dispatching platform to show that the proposed method achieves significant improvement on both total driver income and user experience related metrics. In particular, we model the ride dispatching problem as a Semi Markov Decision Process to account for the temporal aspect of the dispatching actions. To improve the stability of the value iteration with nonlinear function approximators like neural networks, we propose Cerebellar Value Networks (CVNet) with a novel distributed state representation layer. We further derive a regularized policy evaluation scheme for CVNet that penalizes large Lipschitz constant of the value network for additional robustness against adversarial perturbation and noises. Finally, we adapt various transfer learning methods to CVNet for increased learning adaptability and efficiency across multiple cities. We conduct extensive offline simulations based on real dispatching data as well as online AB tests through the DiDi's platform. Results show that CVNet consistently outperforms other recently proposed dispatching methods. We finally show that the performance can be further improved through the efficient use of transfer learning., Comment: KDD 2019 Oral

Large ride-hailing platforms, such as DiDi, Uber and Lyft, connect tens of thousands of vehicles in a city to millions of ride demands throughout the day, providing great promises for improving transportation efficiency through the tasks of order dispatching and vehicle repositioning. Existing studies, however, usually consider the two tasks in simplified settings that hardly address the complex interactions between the two, the real-time fluctuations between supply and demand, and the necessary coordinations due to the large-scale nature of the problem. In this paper we propose a unified value-based dynamic learning framework (V1D3) for tackling both tasks. At the center of the framework is a globally shared value function that is updated continuously using online experiences generated from real-time platform transactions. To improve the sample-efficiency and the robustness, we further propose a novel periodic ensemble method combining the fast online learning with a large-scale offline training scheme that leverages the abundant historical driver trajectory data. This allows the proposed framework to adapt quickly to the highly dynamic environment, to generalize robustly to recurrent patterns and to drive implicit coordinations among the population of managed vehicles. Extensive experiments based on real-world datasets show considerably improvements over other recently proposed methods on both tasks. Particularly, V1D3 outperforms the first prize winners of both dispatching and repositioning tracks in the KDD Cup 2020 RL competition, achieving state-of-the-art results on improving both total driver income and user experience related metrics., Comment: KDD 2021; Ride-hailing marketplace open simulation platform: https://outreach.didichuxing.com/Simulation/

In this paper, we present a comprehensive, in-depth survey of the literature on reinforcement learning approaches to decision optimization problems in a typical ridesharing system. Papers on the topics of rideshare matching, vehicle repositioning, ride-pooling, routing, and dynamic pricing are covered. Most of the literature has appeared in the last few years, and several core challenges are to continue to be tackled: model complexity, agent coordination, and joint optimization of multiple levers. Hence, we also introduce popular data sets and open simulation environments to facilitate further research and development. Subsequently, we discuss a number of challenges and opportunities for reinforcement learning research on this important domain.

We present a new practical framework based on deep reinforcement learning and decision-time planning for real-world vehicle repositioning on ride-hailing (a type of mobility-on-demand, MoD) platforms. Our approach learns the spatiotemporal state-value function using a batch training algorithm with deep value networks. The optimal repositioning action is generated on-demand through value-based policy search, which combines planning and bootstrapping with the value networks. For the large-fleet problems, we develop several algorithmic features that we incorporate into our framework and that we demonstrate to induce coordination among the algorithmically-guided vehicles. We benchmark our algorithm with baselines in a ride-hailing simulation environment to demonstrate its superiority in improving income efficiency meausred by income-per-hour. We have also designed and run a real-world experiment program with regular drivers on a major ride-hailing platform. We have observed significantly positive results on key metrics comparing our method with experienced drivers who performed idle-time repositioning based on their own expertise.

In recent years, there has been increasing amount of interest around meta reinforcement learning methods for traffic signal control, which have achieved better performance compared with traditional control methods. However, previous methods lack robustness in adaptation and stability in training process in complex situations, which largely limits its application in real-world traffic signal control. In this paper, we propose a novel value-based Bayesian meta-reinforcement learning framework BM-DQN to robustly speed up the learning process in new scenarios by utilizing well-trained prior knowledge learned from existing scenarios. This framework is based on our proposed fast-adaptation variation to Gradient-EM Bayesian Meta-learning and the fast-update advantage of DQN, which allows for fast adaptation to new scenarios with continual learning ability and robustness to uncertainty. The experiments on restricted 2D navigation and traffic signal control show that our proposed framework adapts more quickly and robustly in new scenarios than previous methods, and specifically, much better continual learning ability in heterogeneous scenarios.

Contextual multi-armed bandit (MAB) achieves cutting-edge performance on a variety of problems. When it comes to real-world scenarios such as recommendation system and online advertising, however, it is essential to consider the resource consumption of exploration. In practice, there is typically non-zero cost associated with executing a recommendation (arm) in the environment, and hence, the policy should be learned with a fixed exploration cost constraint. It is challenging to learn a global optimal policy directly, since it is a NP-hard problem and significantly complicates the exploration and exploitation trade-off of bandit algorithms. Existing approaches focus on solving the problems by adopting the greedy policy which estimates the expected rewards and costs and uses a greedy selection based on each arm's expected reward/cost ratio using historical observation until the exploration resource is exhausted. However, existing methods are hard to extend to infinite time horizon, since the learning process will be terminated when there is no more resource. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical adaptive contextual bandit method (HATCH) to conduct the policy learning of contextual bandits with a budget constraint. HATCH adopts an adaptive method to allocate the exploration resource based on the remaining resource/time and the estimation of reward distribution among different user contexts. In addition, we utilize full of contextual feature information to find the best personalized recommendation. Finally, in order to prove the theoretical guarantee, we present a regret bound analysis and prove that HATCH achieves a regret bound as low as $O(\sqrt{T})$. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method on both synthetic data sets and the real-world applications., Comment: Accepted for publication at WWW (The Web Conference) 2020

Order dispatching and driver repositioning (also known as fleet management) in the face of spatially and temporally varying supply and demand are central to a ride-sharing platform marketplace. Hand-crafting heuristic solutions that account for the dynamics in these resource allocation problems is difficult, and may be better handled by an end-to-end machine learning method. Previous works have explored machine learning methods to the problem from a high-level perspective, where the learning method is responsible for either repositioning the drivers or dispatching orders, and as a further simplification, the drivers are considered independent agents maximizing their own reward functions. In this paper we present a deep reinforcement learning approach for tackling the full fleet management and dispatching problems. In addition to treating the drivers as individual agents, we consider the problem from a system-centric perspective, where a central fleet management agent is responsible for decision-making for all drivers., Comment: ICDM 2019 Short Paper

Improving the efficiency of dispatching orders to vehicles is a research hotspot in online ride-hailing systems. Most of the existing solutions for order-dispatching are centralized controlling, which require to consider all possible matches between available orders and vehicles. For large-scale ride-sharing platforms, there are thousands of vehicles and orders to be matched at every second which is of very high computational cost. In this paper, we propose a decentralized execution order-dispatching method based on multi-agent reinforcement learning to address the large-scale order-dispatching problem. Different from the previous cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms, in our method, all agents work independently with the guidance from an evaluation of the joint policy since there is no need for communication or explicit cooperation between agents. Furthermore, we use KL-divergence optimization at each time step to speed up the learning process and to balance the vehicles (supply) and orders (demand). Experiments on both the explanatory environment and real-world simulator show that the proposed method outperforms the baselines in terms of accumulated driver income (ADI) and Order Response Rate (ORR) in various traffic environments. Besides, with the support of the online platform of Didi Chuxing, we designed a hybrid system to deploy our model., Comment: 9 pages,13 figures

Similarity plays a fundamental role in many areas, including data mining, machine learning, statistics and various applied domains. Inspired by the success of ensemble methods and the flexibility of trees, we propose to learn a similarity kernel called rpf-kernel through random projection forests (rpForests). Our theoretical analysis reveals a highly desirable property of rpf-kernel: far-away (dissimilar) points have a low similarity value while nearby (similar) points would have a high similarity}, and the similarities have a native interpretation as the probability of points remaining in the same leaf nodes during the growth of rpForests. The learned rpf-kernel leads to an effective clustering algorithm--rpfCluster. On a wide variety of real and benchmark datasets, rpfCluster compares favorably to K-means clustering, spectral clustering and a state-of-the-art clustering ensemble algorithm--Cluster Forests. Our approach is simple to implement and readily adapt to the geometry of the underlying data. Given its desirable theoretical property and competitive empirical performance when applied to clustering, we expect rpf-kernel to be applicable to many problems of an unsupervised nature or as a regularizer in some supervised or weakly supervised settings., Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures

Reinforcement learning aims at searching the best policy model for decision making, and has been shown powerful for sequential recommendations. The training of the policy by reinforcement learning, however, is placed in an environment. In many real-world applications, however, the policy training in the real environment can cause an unbearable cost, due to the exploration in the environment. Environment reconstruction from the past data is thus an appealing way to release the power of reinforcement learning in these applications. The reconstruction of the environment is, basically, to extract the casual effect model from the data. However, real-world applications are often too complex to offer fully observable environment information. Therefore, quite possibly there are unobserved confounding variables lying behind the data. The hidden confounder can obstruct an effective reconstruction of the environment. In this paper, by treating the hidden confounder as a hidden policy, we propose a deconfounded multi-agent environment reconstruction (DEMER) approach in order to learn the environment together with the hidden confounder. DEMER adopts a multi-agent generative adversarial imitation learning framework. It proposes to introduce the confounder embedded policy, and use the compatible discriminator for training the policies. We then apply DEMER in an application of driver program recommendation. We firstly use an artificial driver program recommendation environment, abstracted from the real application, to verify and analyze the effectiveness of DEMER. We then test DEMER in the real application of Didi Chuxing. Experiment results show that DEMER can effectively reconstruct the hidden confounder, and thus can build the environment better. DEMER also derives a recommendation policy with a significantly improved performance in the test phase of the real application., Comment: Appears in KDD 2019

How to optimally dispatch orders to vehicles and how to tradeoff between immediate and future returns are fundamental questions for a typical ride-hailing platform. We model ride-hailing as a large-scale parallel ranking problem and study the joint decision-making task of order dispatching and fleet management in online ride-hailing platforms. This task brings unique challenges in the following four aspects. First, to facilitate a huge number of vehicles to act and learn efficiently and robustly, we treat each region cell as an agent and build a multi-agent reinforcement learning framework. Second, to coordinate the agents from different regions to achieve long-term benefits, we leverage the geographical hierarchy of the region grids to perform hierarchical reinforcement learning. Third, to deal with the heterogeneous and variant action space for joint order dispatching and fleet management, we design the action as the ranking weight vector to rank and select the specific order or the fleet management destination in a unified formulation. Fourth, to achieve the multi-scale ride-hailing platform, we conduct the decision-making process in a hierarchical way where a multi-head attention mechanism is utilized to incorporate the impacts of neighbor agents and capture the key agent in each scale. The whole novel framework is named as CoRide. Extensive experiments based on multiple cities real-world data as well as analytic synthetic data demonstrate that CoRide provides superior performance in terms of platform revenue and user experience in the task of city-wide hybrid order dispatching and fleet management over strong baselines., Comment: CIKM 2019

Many applications require the collection of data on different variables or measurements over many system performance metrics. We term those broadly as measures or variables. Often data collection along each measure incurs a cost, thus it is desirable to consider the cost of measures in modeling. This is a fairly new class of problems in the area of cost-sensitive learning. A few attempts have been made to incorporate costs in combining and selecting measures. However, existing studies either do not strictly enforce a budget constraint, or are not the `most' cost effective. With a focus on classification problem, we propose a computationally efficient approach that could find a near optimal model under a given budget by exploring the most `promising' part of the solution space. Instead of outputting a single model, we produce a model schedule -- a list of models, sorted by model costs and expected predictive accuracy. This could be used to choose the model with the best predictive accuracy under a given budget, or to trade off between the budget and the predictive accuracy. Experiments on some benchmark datasets show that our approach compares favorably to competing methods., Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures

In this paper, we develop a reinforcement learning (RL) based system to learn an effective policy for carpooling that maximizes transportation efficiency so that fewer cars are required to fulfill the given amount of trip demand. For this purpose, first, we develop a deep neural network model, called ST-NN (Spatio-Temporal Neural Network), to predict taxi trip time from the raw GPS trip data. Secondly, we develop a carpooling simulation environment for RL training, with the output of ST-NN and using the NYC taxi trip dataset. In order to maximize transportation efficiency and minimize traffic congestion, we choose the effective distance covered by the driver on a carpool trip as the reward. Therefore, the more effective distance a driver achieves over a trip (i.e. to satisfy more trip demand) the higher the efficiency and the less will be the traffic congestion. We compared the performance of RL learned policy to a fixed policy (which always accepts carpool) as a baseline and obtained promising results that are interpretable and demonstrate the advantage of our RL approach. We also compare the performance of ST-NN to that of state-of-the-art travel time estimation methods and observe that ST-NN significantly improves the prediction performance and is more robust to outliers., Comment: Accepted at IEEE International Conference on Big Data 2018. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1710.04350