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In this paper, we propose a multidimensional statistical model of intraday electricity prices at the scale of the trading session, which allows all products to be simulated simultaneously. This model, based on Poisson measures and inspired by the Common Shock Poisson Model, reproduces the Samuelson effect (intensity and volatility increases as time to maturity decreases). It also reproduces the price correlation structure, highlighted here in the data, which decreases as two maturities move apart. This model has only three parameters that can be estimated using a moment method that we propose here. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model on a case of storage valuation by dynamic programming over a trading session. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a panel of Romanian firms in the manufacturing sector between 2010 and 2019, this paper assesses the impact of utility costs (electricity, gas, water and waste) increases on the economic performance of firms (in terms of employment, exports and productivity). By means of static (fixed effects) and dynamic (GMM) specifications, it finds a relatively moderate, yet negative impact in the case of all variables, under a variety of specifications. Energy costs seem to have a larger contemporaneous effect, which suggests that firms might in the longer-run switch to less energy intensive production processes. Moreover, the more energy intensive sectors are generally also the most impacted in terms of employment and productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to examine the price and income elasticities of short- and long-run industrial electricity demand in Brazil between 2003 and 2020. The research also examines the impacts of COVID-19 in Brazil's industrial electricity sector, including an analysis in states more and less industrialized. Design/methodology/approach: Dynamic adjustments models in panel data are used to present robust estimates and analyze the impact of different methodologies on reported elasticities. Findings: The short-run price elasticity is estimated at −0.448, while the long-run values are around −1.60. Regarding income elasticity, the value is 0.069 in the short-run and is concentrated in 0.25 in the long-run. The inelastic results of income show that the industrial demand for electric energy follows the trend of loss of competitiveness of the Brazilian industry in the past years. In addition, the price of natural gas, the level of employment, and, in specific cases, the level of imports also influence industrial electricity demand. Originality/value: The research is a pioneer in the investigation of the industrial behavior of electricity of the Brazilian industrial branch, using as control variables, the average temperature, and the level of rainfall, this one, so important for a country whose main source is hydroelectric. In addition, to the best of the authors' knowledge, it is the first study, which is prepared to analyze the effects of COVID-19 on electric consumption in the industrial sector, investigating these impacts, including in the states considered more and less industrialized. The estimates generated may help in the design of the Brazilian energy policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the cross-quantile correlation and causality-in-quantiles between green investments and energy commodities during the outbreak of COVID-19. To be specific, the authors aim to address the following questions: Is there any distributional predictability among green bonds and energy commodities during COVID-19? Is there exist any directional predictability between green investments and energy commodities during the global pandemic? Can green bonds hedge the risk of energy commodities during a period of the financial crisis. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use the nonparametric causality in quantile and cross-quantilogram (CQ) correlation approaches as the estimation techniques to investigate the distributional and directional predictability between green investments and energy commodities respectively using daily spot prices from January 1, 2020, to March 26, 2021. The study uses daily closing price indices S&P Green Bond Index as a representative of the green bond market. In the case of energy commodities, the authors use S&P GSCI Natural Gas Spot, S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot, S&P GSCI Unleaded Gasoline Spot, S&P GSCI Gas Oil Spot, S&P GSCI Brent Crude Spot, S&P GSCI WTI, OPEC Oil Basket Price, Crude Oil Oman, Crude Oil Dubai Cash, S&P GSCI Heating Oil Spot, S&P Global Clean Energy, US Gulf Coast Kerosene and Los Angeles Low Sulfur CARB Diesel Spot. Findings: From the CQ correlation results, there exists an overall negative directional predictability between green bonds and natural gas. The authors find that the directional predictability between green bonds and S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot, S&P GSCI Gas Oil Spot, S&P GSCI Brent Crude Spot, S&P GSCI WTI Spot, OPEC Oil Basket Spot, Crude Oil Oman Spot, Crude Oil Dubai Cash Spot, S&P GSCI Heating Oil Spot, US Gulf Coast Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Spot Price and Los Angeles Low Sulfur CARB Diesel Spot Price is negative during normal market conditions and positive during extreme market conditions. Results from the non-parametric causality in the quantile approach show strong evidence of asymmetry in causality across quantiles and strong variations across markets. Practical implications: The quantile time-varying dependence and predictability results documented in this paper can help market participants with different investment targets and horizons adopt better hedging strategies and portfolio diversification to aid optimal policy measures during volatile market conditions. Social implications: The outcome of this study will promote awareness regarding the environment and also increase investor's participation in the green bond market. Further, it allows corporate institutions to fulfill their social commitment through the issuance of green bonds. Originality/value: This paper differs from these previous studies in several aspects. First, the authors have included a wide range of energy commodities, comprising three green bond indices and 14 energy commodity indices. Second, the authors have explored the dependency between the two markets, particularly during COVID-19 pandemic. Third, the authors have applied CQ and causality-in-quantile methods on the given data set. Since the market of green and sustainable finance is growing drastically and the world is transmitting toward environment-friendly practices, it is essential and vital to understand the impact of green bonds on other financial markets. In this regard, the study contributes to the literature by documenting an in-depth connectedness between green bonds and crude oil, natural gas, petrol, kerosene, diesel, crude, heating oil, biofuels and other energy commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Topology optimization of structures composed of truss-like members has been shown to produce results that are very close to the theoretical solution. However, solving complex optimization problems based on the traditional orthogonal truss-like material model remains a challenge. This article proposes a unified framework for solving topology optimization problems based on a non-orthogonal truss-like material model. The framework first establishes a new non-orthogonal truss-like material model that considers the stiffness singularity problem. Several strategies for dynamically changing shear stiffness are studied comparatively. Then, a globally convergent moving asymptote method is employed in three numerical examples, including minimum compliance problems under single and multiple load cases, as well as a stress-constrained problem for an L-shaped design domain. Finally, optimal truss-like structures are obtained with the help of a simple post-processing method. Numerical examples demonstrate that the optimization results for the multiple load cases are better than those obtained using traditional methods for minimum compliance problems. The framework can efficiently solve different types of optimization problems in a unified form, which confirms the effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the determinants of modern cooking fuel choices in Korea. The ordered probit model is estimated using an extensive online survey of Korean household energy consumers. Our empirical results showed that age, gender, and education are significant determinants of modern cooking fuel choices among the socioeconomic demographic variables: females, older people, and highly educated people are more likely to prefer electricity. Also, electricity is more likely to be preferred over natural gas by people who have a higher preference for district heating. Two psychological factors significantly influence cooking fuel choices. People whose behaviors are environment-friendly and people who are more health-conscious are more likely to prefer electricity over natural gas or propane. There are three important insights into the cooking fuel transition toward electricity. First, as interest in health and climate change has significantly increased in recent years in Korea, it may stimulate the transition from natural gas or propane to electricity. Second, electrification of cooking methods will be beneficial for the environment if electricity generation becomes less carbon-intensive. Since electricity in Korea is mainly generated by fossil fuels, it is crucial to implement more aggressive policies toward renewable sources in the energy mix for electricity generation. Third, the public should better understand why this problem cannot be overlooked because the energy mix is important in mitigating climate change. The better the people understand the exact relationship between energy consumption and pollutant emissions, the more effective and environmentally sound will the energy mix policy become. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the relationship between sustainable economic growth in ASEAN's industrial and agricultural sectors and energy transformation (2005–2021). Using the Cross-Sectionally Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) approach, it uncovers the positive impact of green economic growth on reducing fossil fuel consumption. Discrepancies are influenced by sector size, technological accessibility, and strategy complexity. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development shows dual effects on consumption: an initial increase in the short term and a subsequent decrease in the long term. Conversely, the influence of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and patent applications is constrained by the absence of green patent mechanisms and economic intricacies. The poverty ratio acts as a diminishing factor, reflecting its impact on demand–supply dynamics. Recommendations for ASEAN's energy transformation include digital sector evolution, green tech investments, regional green education, robust green finance, uniform emission taxation, and enhanced regional cooperation, collectively guiding the region toward sustainable energy and economic progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we conduct economy-wide scenario simulations to investigate whether and how the wider economic stimulus associated with deploying heat pumps in the UK may help mitigate the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of persistently high electricity and gas prices. Our results show that expansionary processes triggered by producing and installing heat pumps can help offset contractionary pressures associated with higher energy prices. However, outcomes depend on the extent of domestic supply chain content in manufacturing heat pumps, on installation costs to households, on how and where government revenues accrue. Moreover, the relative importance of drivers varies over time. For example, higher purchase and installation costs may support a greater initial stimulus via producer and domestic supply chain gains, despite the greater cost burden on households. However, over time, cost reductions are required to deliver the most favourable economy-wide outcomes.

Active cryptocurrency mining and trading comes with heavy electricity demand and increased emissions. Thus, cryptocurrency mining is prohibited in most economies. Consequently, miners relocate to regions or economies without these prohibitions and/or with relatively lower electricity rates. As such, presenting a nexus between the cryptocurrency and electricity markets, even at the global level. This article investigates the different forms of relationships existing between these markets. The conditional asymmetric volatility model with the Wald, nonparametric and parametric Granger causality tests are employed. The results confirm the existence of both unidirectional and bidirectional lead-lag return relationships between the cryptocurrency and electricity markets. Cryptocurrency returns drive electricity demand. This finding is homogeneous both on a global and strata (homogeneous groupings) basis. Also, the electricity market spills over significant volatilities to the cryptocurrency markets without feedback, nonetheless. Result-based policies are recommended towards green finance, decarbonization, and emission mitigations through the demand for electricity by the cryptocurrency markets. They include the use of clean and renewable electricity sources and technologies for cryptocurrency market activities.

This study investigates the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the East African Community (1990–2021). It seeks to interrogate the nature of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. The hypothesis used in this study is four folded including growth, conservation, feedback and neutral hypothesis.It uses panel data estimation techniques, particularly the panel dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL). The panel augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)-fisher and Levin, Lin & Chu (LLC), 2003, was used to test the unit root process. Dumitreschu-Hurlin (2012) and pairwise Granger tests were used to test for the direction of causality.The findings indicate growth hypothesis with a unidirectional relationship running from electricity consumption to economic growth. Regional governments must increase their investments in electricity market trading to boost economic growth. Greater benefits from regional cooperation can be realized with increased investment in electricity consumption.This is a novel study of the dynamic causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the East African Community. It is a ground-breaking inquiry into the possibility of integrating electricity markets and their role in promoting economic growth.

Aim/purpose – This paper aims to explore both fuel sales forecasting and the business ecosystem, subsequently reversing the focus to examine the business ecosystem in the context of fuel sales forecasting. Accompanying this research objective are the following research questions: 1) Does the order in which the topics of “business ecosystems” and “fuel sales forecasting” are searched affect the search results? 2) Which keywords frequently co-occur in publications related to “business ecosystems” and “fuel sales forecasting”? 3) What is the relationship between the terms “fuel sales forecasting” and “business ecosystem”?

We exploit the introduction of interstate banking deregulation across the U.S. to study the relationship between credit constraints and consumption of durables and energy use. Using the American Housing Survey, we link the timing of these reforms with evidence of a credit expansion and household responses on many margins. We find evidence that low-income households are more likely to purchase new appliances after the deregulation; however, this did not increase energy consumption. The results are informative for policymakers who would like households to purchase new durable goods that use less energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on firm-level data in the French manufacturing sector, we find that firms adapt quickly, strongly and through multiple channels to energy shocks, even though electricity and gas bills represent a small share of their total costs. Over the period 1996–2019, faced with an idiosyncratic energy price increase, firms reduce their energy demand, improve their energy efficiency, increase intermediate inputs imports and optimize energy use across plants. Firms are also able to pass-through the cost shock fully into their export prices. Their production, exports and employment fall. A consequence of these multiple adjustment mechanisms is that the fall in profits is either non-significant, small or specific to only the most energy-intensive firms. We also find that the impact of electricity shocks has weakened over time, suggesting that only firms able to adapt their production process to energy cost shocks have survived. Importantly, when faced with large electricity and gas price increases, firms are less able to reduce their consumption. These results shed light on the mechanisms of resilience of the European manufacturing sector in the context of the present energy crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Despite the increasing attention on energy poverty due to its health implications, the South African story is yet to be told, while pathways of influence have received little empirical investigation in the extant literature. This study examines how energy poverty affects mental distress in post-apartheid South Africa and explores gender and locational heterogeneities in outcomes as well as potential pathways. We use five years of longitudinal data extracted from the National Income Dynamics Survey (NIDS). We employ the Lewbel instrumental variable method to resolve endogeneity and apply causal mediation analysis to identify potential channels of effect. The findings suggest that energy poverty is associated with an increase in mental distress. This outcome is consistent across different estimation methods and conceptualisations of energy poverty. The deteriorating effect of energy poverty on mental distress is more pronounced among females and rural residents. We further establish that experiences of persistent cough and chest pains/tightness serve as potential pathways in the link between energy poverty and mental distress. We encourage the South African government to increase budgetary allocations to the free basic electricity policy and provide connection subsidies to poor households, which have the potential to alleviate energy poverty and reduce mental distress as a result.

In this study, our aim is to explore the formation of electricity consumption habits in Cote d'Ivoire, specifically focusing on new subscribers. The growth of residential electricity consumption globally has been influenced by these habits, which can lead to inertia and inefficient energy usage. Using the unique database of the National Electricity Company, we uncover that electricity consumption habits exhibit a high level of persistence, and this persistence tends to strengthen over time. These findings highlight the need to develop policies that encourage electricity efficiency among new subscribers, to combat energy inefficiency and foster positive consumption habits at the household level.

This research investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices in Saudi Arabia between 1979 and 2020 using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) methodology. The study employs Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests to determine the integration order of the variables and Bounds testing to confirm the existence of long run cointegration relationships between each variable. The results indicate that oil shocks influence food prices through several mechanisms. Firstly, the cost of energy increases due to the rise in oil prices, affecting the agricultural commodity market, including farm equipment, food processing, packaging, and distribution costs. Secondly, the demand for agricultural commodities to produce biofuels affects food availability and thus food prices. Thirdly, as an oil-based economy, the oil price shock affects food prices through its impact on government spending, which affects aggregate demand and liquidity. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should adopt appropriate policies to mitigate the impact of oil price shocks on food prices, including investing in renewable energy sources, diversifying its economy, and improving food production and supply chain efficiency. Additionally, implementing appropriate fiscal policies to ensure sufficient budget allocation for food support programs is crucial. However, Investing in groundwater exploration can contribute significantly to the development of Saudi agriculture and to gradually achieving food self-sufficiency.

We study default effects in the context of a residential electricity-pricing program. In the large-scale randomized controlled trial we analyse, one treatment group was given the option to opt-in to time-varying pricing while another was defaulted into the program but allowed to opt-out. We provide dramatic evidence of a default effect on program participation, consistent with previous research. A novel feature of our study is that we also observe how the default manipulation impacts customers' subsequent electricity consumption. Passive consumers who did not opt-out but would not have opted in-comprising more than 70% of the sample-nonetheless reduce consumption in response to higher prices. Observing of this follow-on behaviour enables us to assess competing explanations for the default effect. We draw conclusions about the likely welfare effects of defaulting customers onto time-varying pricing.

Motivation: A crucial but difficult goal for governments and policymakers in Nigeria in recent years has been the sustainability of economic growth. This goal must be accomplished by regulating or lowering greenhouse gas emissions, which calls for switching to a low- or zero-carbon production system. The lack of in-depth empirical studies on the environmental impact of socioeconomic variables on Nigeria and a number of unresolved issues from earlier research are what led to the current study. Objective: This study fills an important empirical gap by investigating the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and the long and short-run dynamic impact of socioeconomic variables on ecological sustainability in Nigeria. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2020 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique in the presence of structural breaks were adopted for this study. Results: The empirical findings support the existence of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Nigeria in the long and short run. Energy consumption and total import exacerbates environmental deterioration in the long and short run, whereas total export improves environmental quality in the long and short run. Financial development, which contributed to a conspicuous decrease in the level of environmental destruction in the long run, escalated it in the short run. In contrast, urbanization caused a significant increase in environmental damage in the long run but motivated a decrease in biodiversity loss in the short run. Implications: The government, policymakers, and all energy stakeholders should take additional measures to ensure the implementation and diversification of energy sources to accommodate more renewable energy sources that emit less carbon in order to promote efficiency in Nigeria's production processes and lower carbon emissions. In order to promote the production and trade of environmentally friendly goods, they should also revise and strengthen environmental policies. With affordable, dependable, and sustainable energy use for higher productivity and inclusive growth, Nigeria will be able to achieve its long-term development goals of good health and wellbeing.

The economic literature is unanimous on the fact that access to clean fuels has positive externalities on the different dimensions of welfare. However, the effects on deforestation are less known despite the existing relationship between the use of certain fuels and forest degradation. This study focuses on the effect of access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking on deforestation in developing countries. We examine this relationship going from a sample of 92 countries during the 2000 to 2015 period. The results show that access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking slow down deforestation. Based on its findings, the study suggests an urgent need of policy measures focusing on provision of clean fuels and technologies for cooking to households to reduce deforestation in developing countries. Moreover, the proportion of arable land has a significant effect on deforestation. The government must therefore regulate agricultural investments in countries with large arable land to reduce deforestation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global rise in energy consumption makes managing energy demands a priority. Here, the potential of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in controlling energy consumption is still debated. Within this context, the main objective of the current study is to measure the impact of ICT, its potential benefit, and environmental factors on household electricity demand in Taiwan. A panel of data from 20 cities in Taiwan was collected during the period 2004–2018. We adopted PMG estimation and applied the DH-causality test for analysis. The estimation results show that ICT, carbon emissions, and climate change will drive household electricity demand in Taiwan in the long term. However, ICT has a higher potential to reduce electricity demand in the short-term period. In addition, the results of the causality test reveal a two-way interrelationship between ICT and electricity demand. Our study also found that climate change indirectly affects the use of electricity through household appliances. We also presented several policy implications at the end of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our results introduce the preferences and attitudes of farmers and the internet-orientated population regarding renewable energy sources (RES) in Kosovo. The research included 243 internet-orientated participants and 30 farmers. The data was gathered through questionnaires (in both groups) and deep interviews (just in farmers). The results showed that the awareness of RES was high for especially solar, wind and hydro energy, the relationship among them was very strong. It was justified that firewood was typically used by respondents with low income, but not considered as renewable energy source, similarly to Hungary and the USA. A special feature of Kosovo is that electricity has very high importance for the man in the street, even for heating. Better education, higher income and environmental-consciousness definitely support better knowledge of RES, similarly to international tendencies. Males and employed participants had more knowledge about RES than females, or unemployed ones. Moreover, the results showed that the participants prefer environment rather than convenience, which is also typical of less wealthy countries. Our results might be useful as a typical less developed country case study for international comparison and helps to eliminate the unknown willingness in RES for the development of future agricultural strategies in Kosovo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The war in Ukraine and new sanctions imposed on Russia have affected commodity prices and induced historic moves in exchange rate markets. In this paper, we examine the impact of commodity price shocks related to the war in Ukraine on three currencies (Canadian dollar, euro, and Japanese yen). Using four-hour price data for three commodities (wheat, crude oil, and natural gas) and two exchange rates (EUR/CAD and CAD/JPY) from February 1 to April 30, 2022, the analysis based on the quantile autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model suggests a long-run association between higher commodity prices and appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the euro and the yen. Furthermore, the dynamic simulated ARDL model shows a positive impact of commodity price shocks on the value of the Canadian dollar against the euro and the yen, which demonstrates the robustness of our findings. Oil price shocks have almost the same impact on the depreciation of the euro and the yen. The driving forces in the depreciation of the euro and the yen, in addition to higher oil prices, are higher gas prices and higher wheat prices, respectively.

This paper explores the asymmetric connectedness of systemic risk between the oil and global stock markets in both the time and frequency domains. To do so, we introduce time-varying parametric vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) spillover index models and implied volatility indices to examine risk spillover under bad and good volatility changes. The results reveal that the oil market and global stock markets are highly risk-connected. The risk spillover from increases in oil-stock volatility is greater than that from decreases in volatility, showing an apparent asymmetric phenomenon. Additionally, asymmetric risk spillovers are caused by volatility in the oil market. In particular, the ability to predict systemic risk driven by bad and good volatility changes is enhanced during extreme market periods. Furthermore, we observe that the risk spillovers between the oil and global stock markets under bad and good volatility changes are more pronounced in the short term and that risk spillovers are still dominated by bad volatility in each period. The oil market has a significant risk spillover effect under bad volatility changes in all periods, while it only plays a strong risk spillover role under good volatility changes in the medium and long term. Finally, trading strategies based on minimum connectedness portfolios significantly reduce asset volatility. These findings can aid investors in optimizing their portfolios according to market conditions and provide recommendations to relevant policymakers.

This paper studies the extent individuals are willing to undertake energy efficiency measures, with evidence coming from a developing country (Bosnia and Herzegovina). The goal of this paper is to analyze energy-savings behaviors, aiming to understand what is typically meant under the term energy efficiency, who is more likely to know the meaning, and the extent individuals are willing to undertake some energy efficiency measures. The sample size used in this paper is a random stratified sample of 1,415 individuals coming from various backgrounds. Our logistic regression models found no statistically significant predictor across all ten measures used in the study. However, past experience, age, and being married are relatively common across these ten energy-saving behaviors. These results might be beneficial in defining policies in order to promote energy-saving behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]