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These two volumes of the Royal Society's Philosophical Transactions record the ‘state of methane’ in 2021. The atmospheric methane burden rose rapidly in 2020: more rapidly than at any previous time in the observational record. The causes of this rise are complex and not well understood. It is likely much of the growth is driven by increased emissions from biological sources, such as natural wetlands, agriculture and landfills, especially in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. Other processes such as declining methane sinks may also be contributing. The methane budget is not closed. In the overall estimates by Saunois et al. (2020), there are wide uncertainty margins in each sub-category and huge discrepancies between Top-Down and Bottom-Up assessments. Moreover, in seeking to track methane, we are chasing a very fast-changing target—the global methane budget in 2021 is very different from the budget in 2010.

The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry-climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993-2012). Except for three model simulations, all others were driven offline by (or nudged to) reanalysed meteorology. The overarching goal of TransCom-VSLS was to provide a reconciled model estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection (SGI) of bromine from these gases, to constrain the current measurement-derived range, and to investigate inter-model differences due to emissions and transport processes. Models ran with standardised idealised chemistry, to isolate differences due to transport, and we investigated the sensitivity of results to a range of VSLS emission inventories. Models were tested in their ability to reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial distribution of VSLS at the surface, using measurements from NOAA's long-term global monitoring network, and in the tropical troposphere, using recent aircraft measurements - including high-altitude observations from the NASA Global Hawk platform. The models generally capture the observed seasonal cycle of surface CHBr3 and CH2Br2 well, with a strong model-measurement correlation (r≥0.7) at most sites. In a given model, the absolute model-measurement agreement at the surface is highly sensitive to the choice of emissions. Large inter-model differences are apparent when using the same emission inventory, highlighting the challenges faced in evaluating such inventories at the global scale. Across the ensemble, most consistency is found within the tropics where most of the models (8 out of 11) achieve best agreement to surface CHBr3 observations using th

This study explores our ability to simulate the atmospheric chemistry stemming from isoprene emissions in pristine and polluted regions of the Amazon basin. We confront two atmospheric chemistry models – a global, Eulerian chemistry-climate model (UM-UKCA) and a trajectory-based Lagrangian model (CiTTyCAT) – with recent airborne measurements of atmospheric composition above the Amazon made during the SAMBBA campaign of 2012. The simulations with the two models prove relatively insensitive to the chemical mechanism employed; we explore one based on the Mainz Isoprene Mechanism, and an updated one that includes changes to the chemistry of first generation isoprene nitrates (ISON) and the regeneration of hydroxyl radicals via the formation of hydroperoxy-aldehydes (HPALDS) from hydroperoxy radicals (ISO2). In the Lagrangian model, the impact of increasing the spatial resolution of trace gas emissions employed from 3.75° × 2.5° to 0.1° × 0.1° varies from one flight to another, and from one chemical species to another. What consistently proves highly influential on our simulations, however, is the model framework itself – how the treatment of transport, and consequently mixing, differs between the two models. The lack of explicit mixing in the Lagrangian model yields variability in atmospheric composition more reminiscent of that exhibited by the measurements. In contrast, the combination of explicit (and implicit) mixing in the Eulerian model removes much of this variability but yields better agreement with the measurements overall. We therefore explore a simple treatment of mixing in the Lagrangian model that, drawing on output from the Eulerian model, offers a compromise between the two models. We use this Lagrangian/Eulerian combination, in addition to the separate Eulerian and Lagrangian models, to simulate ozone at a site in the boundary layer downwind of Manaus, Brazil. The Lagrangian/Eulerian combination predicts a value for an AOT40-like accumulated exposure met

The impact of polar stratospheric ozone loss resulting from chlorine activation on polar stratospheric clouds is examined using a pair of model integrations run with the fully coupled chemistry climate model UM-UKCA. Suppressing chlorine activation through heterogeneous reactions is found to produce modelled ozone differences consistent with observed ozone differences between the present and pre-ozone hole period. Statistically significant high latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) ozone loss begins in August and peaks in October-November, with >75% of ozone destroyed at 50 hPa. Associated with this ozone destruction is a >12 K decrease of the lower polar stratospheric temperatures and an increase of >6 K in the upper stratosphere. The heating components of this temperature change are diagnosed and it is found that the temperature dipole is the result of decreased shortwave heating in the lower stratosphere and increased dynamical heating in the upper stratosphere. The cooling of the polar lower stratosphere leads, through thermal wind balance, to an acceleration of the polar vortex and delays its breakdown by ~2 weeks. A link between lower stratospheric zonal wind speed, the vertical component of the EP flux, Fz, and the residual mean vertical circulation, w*, is identified. In December and January, increased westerly winds lead to increases in Fz, associated with an increase in tropopause height. The resulting increase in wavebreaking leads to enhanced downwelling/reduced upwelling over the polar cap. Many of the stratospheric signals modelled in this study propagate down to the troposphere, and lead to significant surface changes in December.

In this study, we use a high resolution version of the Cambridge p-TOMCAT model, along with data collected during the 2008 NERC-funded Oxidant and Particle Photochemical Processes (OP3) project, to examine the potential impact of the expansion of oil palm in Borneo on air quality and atmospheric composition. Several model emission scenarios are run for the OP3 measurement period, incorporating emissions from both global datasets and local flux measurements. Isoprene fluxes observed at a forest site during OP3 were considerably less than fluxes calculated using the MEGAN model. Incorporating the observed isoprene fluxes into p-TOMCAT substantially improved the comparison between modelled and observed isoprene surface mixing ratios and OH concentrations relative to using the MEGAN emissions. If both observed isoprene fluxes and HOx recycling chemistry were included, the ability of the model to capture diurnal variations in isoprene and OH was further improved. However, a similar improvement was also achieved using a~standard chemical mechanism without HOx recycling, by fixing boundary layer isoprene concentrations over Borneo to follow the OP3 observations. Further model simulations, considering an extreme scenario with all of Borneo converted to oil palm plantation, were run to determine the maximum atmospheric impact of land use change in Borneo. In these simulations, the level of nitrogen oxides was found to be critical. If only isoprene emissions from oil palm are considered, then large scale conversion to oil palm produced a decrease in monthly mean surface ozone of up to ~20%. However, if related changes in NOx emissions from fertilisation, industrial processing and transport are also included then ozone increases of up to ~70% were calculated. Although the largest changes occurred locally, the model also calculated significant regional changes of O3, OH and other species downwind of Borneo and in the free troposphere.

A Lagrangian model of photochemistry and mixing is described (CiTTyCAT, stemming from the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport), which is suitable for transport and chemistry studies throughout the troposphere. Over the last five years, the model has been developed in parallel at several different institutions and here those developments have been incorporated into one "community" model and documented for the first time. The key photochemical developments include a new scheme for biogenic volatile organic compounds and updated emissions schemes. The key physical development is to evolve composition following an ensemble of trajectories within neighbouring air-masses, including a simple scheme for mixing between them via an evolving "background profile", both within the boundary layer and free troposphere. The model runs along trajectories pre-calculated using winds and temperature from meteorological analyses. In addition, boundary layer height and precipitation rates, output from the analysis model, are interpolated to trajectory points and used as inputs to the mixing and wet deposition schemes. The model is most suitable in regimes when the effects of small-scale turbulent mixing are slow relative to advection by the resolved winds so that coherent air-masses form with distinct composition and strong gradients between them. Such air-masses can persist for many days while stretching, folding and thinning. Lagrangian models offer a useful framework for picking apart the processes of air-mass evolution over inter-continental distances, without being hindered by the numerical diffusion inherent to global Eulerian models. The model, including different box and trajectory modes, is described and some output for each of the modes is presented for evaluation. The model is available for download from a Subversion-controlled repository by contacting the corresponding authors.

We present results fromtheOP3 campaign in Sabah during 2008 that allowus to study the impact of local emission changes over Borneo on atmospheric composition at the regional andwider scale. OP3 constituent data provide an important constraint onmodel performance.Treatment of boundary layer processes is highlighted as an important area of model uncertainty.Model studies of land-use change confirm earlier work, indicating that further changes to intensive oil palm agriculture in South EastAsia, and the tropics in general, could have important impacts on air quality, with the biggest factor being the concomitant changes in NOx emissions. With the model scenarios used here, local increases in ozone of around 50 per cent could occur. We also report measurements of short-lived brominated compounds around Sabah suggesting that oceanic (and, especially, coastal) emission sources dominate locally. The concentration of bromine in short-lived halocarbons measured at the surface during OP3 amounted to about 7 ppt, setting an upper limit on the amount of these species that can reach the lower stratosphere.

We report measurements of atmospheric composition over a tropical rainforest and over a nearby oil palm plantation in Sabah, Borneo. The primary vegetation in each of the two landscapes emits very different amounts and kinds of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), resulting in distinctive VOC fingerprints in the atmospheric boundary layer for both landscapes. VOCs over the Borneo rainforest are dominated by isoprene and its oxidation products, with a significant additional contribution from monoterpenes. Rather than consuming the main atmospheric oxidant, OH, these high concentrations of VOCs appear to maintain OH, as has been observed previously over Amazonia. The boundary-layer characteristics and mixing ratios of VOCs observed over the Borneo rainforest are different to those measured previously over Amazonia. Compared with the Bornean rainforest, air over the oil palm plantation contains much more isoprene, monoterpenes are relatively less important, and the flower scent, estragole, is prominent. Concentrations of nitrogen oxides are greater above the agro-industrial oil palm landscape than over the rainforest, and this leads to changes in some secondary pollutant mixing ratios (but not, currently, differences in ozone). Secondary organic aerosol over both landscapes shows a significant contribution from isoprene. Primary biological aerosol dominates the super-micrometre aerosol over the rainforest and is likely to be sensitive to land-use change, since the fungal source of the bioaerosol is closely linked to above-ground biodiversity.

The concentration of atmospheric methane increased from around 360 ppbv at the last glacial maximum (∼20 ka before present) to about 700 ppbv in the pre-industrial era (∼200 years before present). The sources and/or sinks of methane must therefore have changed during this period; however, the relative sizes of the source- and sink-driven changes in methane concentration remain uncertain. We take the first “bottom-up” approach to identifying any chemical signals preserved in the ice record that could help us to determine these. Using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, we explore the effects of source- and sink-driven changes in methane on a wide range of chemical species in the Antarctic boundary layer. Though we identify several potentially useful atmospheric signals, a simple and robust constraint on the sizes of the source- and sink-driven changes cannot be readily identified, owing to their preservation in the ice, limitations to the information they hold, and/or ambiguity surrounding their interpretation. This includes the mass-independent fractionation of oxygen isotopes in sulfates, and the concentration of formaldehyde, in which there has been considerable interest. Our exploration is confined to a domain in which NOx emissions and climate remain constant. However, given the uncertainties associated with the changes in these factors, we would anticipate that their inclusion would make it harder still to identify a robust signal. Finally, though formaldehyde cannot provide this, we propose how it might be used to synchronize the gas- and aqueous-phase Antarctic ice records and thus determine the relative phasing of glacial-interglacial changes in Southern Hemisphere CO2 and temperature.

More than half the world's rainforest has been lost to agriculture since the Industrial Revolution. Among the most widespread tropical crops is oil palm (Elaeis guineensis): global production now exceeds 35 million tonnes per year. In Malaysia, for example, 13% of land area is now oil palm plantation, compared with 1% in 1974. There are enormous pressures to increase palm oil production for food, domestic products, and, especially, biofuels. Greater use of palm oil for biofuel production is predicated on the assumption that palm oil is an “environmentally friendly” fuel feedstock. Here we show, using measurements and models, that oil palm plantations in Malaysia directly emit more oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds than rainforest. These compounds lead to the production of ground-level ozone (O3), an air pollutant that damages human health, plants, and materials, reduces crop productivity, and has effects on the Earth's climate. Our measurements show that, at present, O3 concentrations do not differ significantly over rainforest and adjacent oil palm plantation landscapes. However, our model calculations predict that if concentrations of oxides of nitrogen in Borneo are allowed to reach those currently seen over rural North America and Europe, ground-level O3 concentrations will reach 100 parts per billion (109) volume (ppbv) and exceed levels known to be harmful to human health. Our study provides an early warning of the urgent need to develop policies that manage nitrogen emissions if the detrimental effects of palm oil production on air quality and climate are to be avoided.

Interannual variability (IAV) in tropospheric species concentrations can be driven by variability in emissions, chemistry, transport and UV radiation. In a 3D CTM study we have found good agreement between the IAV of NO2 columns observed by the GOME satellite instrument and model simulations over Western Europe from 1996 to 2000. We find that meteorological variability is an important factor during this period. Averaged 10 m wind speeds from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis are a good proxy for the overall meteorology driving the IAV during the studied period of 1996-2000. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.

We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 +/- 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 +/- 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 +/- 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 +/- 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the largest changes over central Africa (20-30 ppbv), southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.

We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions from biomass burning based on the 1997¿2002 average carbon emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Model output is analyzed at 10:30 local time, close to the overpass time of the ERS-2 satellite, and collocated with the measurements to account for sampling biases due to incomplete spatiotemporal coverage of the instrument. We assessed the importance of different contributions to the sampling bias: correlations on seasonal time scale give rise to a positive bias of 30¿50% in the retrieved annual means over regions dominated by emissions from biomass burning. Over the industrial regions of the eastern United States, Europe and eastern China the retrieved annual means have a negative bias with significant contributions (between ¿25% and +10% of the NO2 column) resulting from correlations on time scales from a day to a month. We present global maps of modeled and retrieved annual mean NO2 column densities, together with the corresponding ensemble means and standard deviations for models and retrievals. The spatial correlation between the individual models and retrievals are high, typically in the range 0.81¿0.93 after smoothing the data to a common resolution. On average the models underestimate the retrievals in industrial regions, especially over eastern China and over the Highveld region of South Africa, and overestimate the retrievals in regions dominated by biomass burning during the dry season. The discrepancy over South America south of the Amazon disappears when we use the GFED emissions specific to the year 2000. The seasonal cycle is analyzed in detail for eight different continental regions. Over regions dominated by biomass burning, the timing of

Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions scenarios, broadly representing “optimistic,” “likely,” and “pessimistic” options, are compared to a base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically represents the current global distribution of tropospheric ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence of climate change over the same time period by forcing the central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around 0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3 scenarios range from a 5% decrease, through a 6% increase, to a 15% increase. The intermodel uncertainty (±1 standard deviation) associated with these values is about ±25%. Model outliers have no significant influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of -50, 180, and 300 mW m-2, compared to a CO2 forcing over the same time period of 800–1100 mW m-2. These values indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short- to medium-term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures to improve/worsen future climate forcing. The model sensitivity of ozone to imposed climate change varies between models but modulates zonal mean mixing ratios by ±5 ppbv via a variety of feedback mechanisms, in particular those involving water vapor and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. This level of climate change also reduces the methane lifetime by around 4%. The ensemble mean year 2000 tropospheric ozone budget indicates chemical production, chemical destruction, dry deposition and stratos