1. Comparison of double moving average and double exponential smoothing methods for unemployment forecasting in North Sumatra.
- Author
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Syafwan, Havid, Putri, Pristiyanilicia, Dewi, Muthia, Azmi, Sri Rezki Maulina, and Dermawan, Ari
- Subjects
- *
STATISTICAL smoothing , *UNEMPLOYMENT , *FORECASTING , *PREDICTION models - Abstract
This study aims to determine the best equation method and model for prediction unemployment in North Sumatra in 2022. This study uses dataset from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of North Sumatra where dataset is taken for 22 years from 2000 until 2021. The results of this study are the best parameters of each method were for the Double Moving Average method with an average time parameter of 3rd periods and the Double Exponential Smoothing method with alpha value = 0.5. The 3rd-period Double Moving Average accuracy test shows a MAPE value of 13.97% while Double Exponential Smoothing with alpha value=0.5 indicates a MAPE value of 16.45%. The study shows that the best forecast model for North Sumatra unemployment in 2022 is to use the 3rd period using the DMA method to forecast 2022 unemployment up to 519305 people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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