Search

Climate change is one of the most important environmental issues that occur human-induced with large-scale social, economic, and environmental impacts. Climate models, which have been widely performed in the last decades, allow a study of change in climate variables and their impact on the environment. The present study was conducted to study changes in temperature and precipitation between 2006-2041 in the southern part of Uzbekistan. The results showed that the average temperature decreased from 14.53 °C during 2006-2010 to 14.40 °C during 2011-2015. Monthly average minimum temperature ranges (increases) from east to west in the region during all months of the year for both shared socio-economic pathways in 2021-2040. The minimum and maximum precipitation amount constituted 11.23 mm and 55.91 mm in the region, correspondingly within 2006-2010, whereas these amounts increased during the second period (2011-2015), 11.96 mm and 60.28 mm. Precipitation will not change sharply from SSP2.6 to SSP8.5 from 2021 to 2040.

This study focuses on the relationships between climate variability and wheat yield in Tashkent province. It contains a time series study of precipitation, temperature, and wheat yield, as well as the assessment of the link between yield and climatic factors and an examination of the influence of climate change on crop production using a regression model. Time series results of temperature present a positive trend in mean temperature in Bustanlik and Urtachirchik. Annual minimum temperature, the minimum temperature in spring, minimum temperature between September and May have changed significantly in Bustanlik over the years (p

This comprehensive study investigates land use and land cover (LULC) changes in Ugam Chatkal National Park, Uzbekistan, over a 30-year period from 1993 to 2022 with Landsat satellite images. Utilizing advanced CA-Markov and Random Forest machine learning algorithms, it meticulously analyzes historical data to understand past trends and projects future LULC changes. According to remote sensing analysis of the past, our findings show the sharp decline of glacier land cover from 2105 km² to 1334 km² in the Ugam Chatkal National Park, replaced by tree cover (from 327 km² in 1993 to 450 km² in 2022), rangelands (1259 km² in 1993 to 1355 km² in 2020), and rocks (from 834 km² in 1993 to 1390 km² in 2022). Agriculture, water, and bare land witnessed some fluctuations but did not change significantly. At the same time, the region experienced some urbanization, raising the urban area from 50 km² in 1993 to 90 km² after 29 years. The article suggests three possible scenarios for the future of the region: "hard," "soft" and "bad" scenarios. Land cover change predictions are made in TerrSet software with the CA-Markov model for four decades: 2035, 2045,2055, and 2065. Hard and soft scenarios predict similar patterns for the future: a decline in glacier cover and a rise of tree cover, rock, and rangelands, with a slight increase in agriculture and urban classes. Whereas "bad" scenario, which incorporates rapid urbanization and agricultural expansion for the study area, forecasts a climb of the urban area until 415 km² (8% of the territory) until 2065, and 286 km² for agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]