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Recent technological developments allow us to measure the status of dozens of proteins in individual cells. This opens the way to understand the heterogeneity of complex multi-signaling networks across cells and cell types, with important implications to understand and treat diseases such as cancer. These technologies are, however, limited to proteins for which antibodies are available and are fairly costly, making predictions of new markers and of existing markers under new conditions a valuable alternative. To assess our capacity to make such predictions and boost further methodological development, we organized the Single Cell Signaling in Breast Cancer DREAM challenge. We used a mass cytometry dataset, covering 36 markers in over 4,000 conditions totaling 80 million single cells across 67 breast cancer cell lines. Through four increasingly difficult subchallenges, the participants predicted missing markers, new conditions, and the time-course response of single cells to stimuli in the presence and absence of kinase inhibitors. The challenge results show that despite the stochastic nature of signal transduction in single cells, the signaling events are tightly controlled and machine learning methods can accurately predict new experimental data.

Objective Applications of machine learning in healthcare are of high interest and have the potential to improve patient care. Yet, the real-world accuracy of these models in clinical practice and on different patient subpopulations remains unclear. To address these important questions, we hosted a community challenge to evaluate methods that predict healthcare outcomes. We focused on the prediction of all-cause mortality as the community challenge question. Materials and methods Using a Model-to-Data framework, 345 registered participants, coalescing into 25 independent teams, spread over 3 continents and 10 countries, generated 25 accurate models all trained on a dataset of over 1.1 million patients and evaluated on patients prospectively collected over a 1-year observation of a large health system. Results The top performing team achieved a final area under the receiver operator curve of 0.947 (95% CI, 0.942-0.951) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.487 (95% CI, 0.458-0.499) on a prospectively collected patient cohort. Discussion Post hoc analysis after the challenge revealed that models differ in accuracy on subpopulations, delineated by race or gender, even when they are trained on the same data. Conclusion This is the largest community challenge focused on the evaluation of state-of-the-art machine learning methods in a healthcare system performed to date, revealing both opportunities and pitfalls of clinical AI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Applications of machine learning in healthcare are of high interest and have the potential to improve patient care. Yet, the real-world accuracy of these models in clinical practice and on different patient subpopulations remains unclear. To address these important questions, we hosted a community challenge to evaluate methods that predict healthcare outcomes. We focused on the prediction of all-cause mortality as the community challenge question., Materials and Methods: Using a Model-to-Data framework, 345 registered participants, coalescing into 25 independent teams, spread over 3 continents and 10 countries, generated 25 accurate models all trained on a dataset of over 1.1 million patients and evaluated on patients prospectively collected over a 1-year observation of a large health system., Results: The top performing team achieved a final area under the receiver operator curve of 0.947 (95% CI, 0.942-0.951) and an area under the precision-recall curve of 0.487 (95% CI, 0.458-0.499) on a prospectively collected patient cohort., Discussion: Post hoc analysis after the challenge revealed that models differ in accuracy on subpopulations, delineated by race or gender, even when they are trained on the same data., Conclusion: This is the largest community challenge focused on the evaluation of state-of-the-art machine learning methods in a healthcare system performed to date, revealing both opportunities and pitfalls of clinical AI., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)