Search

Vegetation can modify the planetary surface albedo via the Charney mechanism, as plants are usually darker than the bare surface of the continents. We updated ESTM (Earth-like Surface Temperature Model) to incorporate the presence, distribution and evolution of two dynamically competing vegetation types that resemble grasslands and trees (the latter in the double stages of life: adults and seedlings). The newly developed model was applied to estimate how the climate-vegetation system reaches equilibrium across different rocky planetary configurations, and to assess its impact on temperature and habitability. With respect to a world with bare granite continents, the effect of vegetation-albedo feedback is to increase the average surface temperature. Since grasses and trees exhibit different albedos, they affect temperature to different degrees. The ultimate impact on climate depends on the outcome of the competition between these vegetation types. The change in albedo due to vegetation extends the habitable zone and enhances the overall planetary habitability beyond its traditional outer edge. This effect is especially relevant for planets that have a larger extension of continents than Earth. For Earth, the semi-major axis d = 1.04 UA represents the turning point where vegetation enhances habitability from h = 0.0 to h = 0.485 (in the grass-dominance case), to h = 0.584 (in the case of coexistence between grasses and trees), and to h = 0.612 (in the tree-dominance case). This illustrates the transition from a snowball state to a planet with intermediate habitability at the outer edge of the circumstellar habitability zone., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures (17 panels). Accepded for publication on MNRAS on Aug 1st, 2024

Permafrost thaw is a major concern raised by the ongoing climate change. An understudied phenomenon possibly affecting the pace of permafrost thaw is the onset of convective motions within the active layer caused by the density anomaly of water. Here, we explore the effects of groundwater convection on permafrost thawing using a model that accounts for ice - water phase transitions, coupled with the dynamics of the temperature field transported by the Darcy's flow across a porous matrix. Numerical simulations of this model show that ice thawing in the presence of convection is much faster than in the diffusive case and deepens at a constant velocity proportional to the soil permeability. A scaling argument is able to predict correctly the asymptotic velocity. Since in the convective regime the heat transport is mediated by the coherent motion of thermal plumes across the thawed layer, we find that the depth of the thawing interface becomes highly heterogeneous.

Across plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new conceptual, mechanistic model that includes plant competition, stochastic fires, and fire-vegetation feedback. Considering a single standing plant functional type, we observed that highly flammable and slowly colonizing plants can persist only when they have a strong fire response, while fast colonizing and less flammable plants can display a larger range of fire responses. At the community level, the fire response of the strongest competitor determines the existence of alternative ecological states, i.e. different plant communities, under the same environmental conditions. Specifically, when the strongest competitor had a very strong fire response, such as in Mediterranean forests, only one ecological state could be achieved. Conversely, when the strongest competitor was poorly fire-adapted, alternative ecological states emerged, for example between tropical humid savannas and forests, or between different types of boreal forests. These findings underline the importance of including the plant fire response when modeling fire ecosystems, e.g. to predict the vegetation response to invasive species or to climate change., Comment: The American Naturalist (2023)

The detection of cause-effect relationships from the analysis of paleoclimatic records is a crucial step to disentangle the main mechanisms at work in the climate system. Here, we show that the approach based on the generalized Fluctuation-Dissipation Relation, complemented by the analysis of the Transfer Entropy, allows the causal links to be identified between temperature, CO2 concentration and astronomical forcing during the glacial cycles of the last 800 kyr based on Antarctic ice core records. When considering the whole spectrum of time scales, the results of the analysis suggest that temperature drives CO2 concentration, or that are both driven by the common astronomical forcing. However, considering only millennial-scale fluctuations, the results reveal the presence of more complex causal links, indicating that CO2 variations contribute to driving the changes of temperature on such time scales. The results also evidence a slow temporal variability in the strength of the millennial-scale causal links between temperature and CO2 concentration., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures + Supplemental material (10 pages, 7 figures)

Rocky planets with temperate conditions provide the best chance for discovering habitable worlds and life outside the Solar System. In the last decades, new instrumental facilities and large observational campaigns have been driven by the quest for habitable worlds. Climate models aimed at studying the habitability of rocky planets are essential tools to pay off these technological and observational endeavours. In this context, we present EOS-ESTM, a fast and flexible model aimed at exploring the impact on habitability of multiple climate factors, including those unconstrained by observations. EOS-ESTM is built on ESTM, a seasonal-latitudinal energy balance model featuring an advanced treatment of the meridional and vertical transport. The novel features of EOS-ESTM include: (1) parameterizations for simulating the climate impact of oceans, land, ice, and clouds as a function of temperature and stellar zenith distance; (2) a procedure (EOS) for calculating the radiative transfer in atmospheres with terrestrial and non-terrestrial compositions illuminated by solar- and non-solar-type stars. By feeding EOS-ESTM with Earth's stellar, orbital and planetary parameters we derive a reference model that satisfies a large number of observational constraints of the Earth's climate system. Validation tests of non-terrestrial conditions yield predictions that are in line with comparable results obtained with a hierarchy of climate models. The application of EOS-ESTM to planetary atmospheres in maximum greenhouse conditions demonstrates the possibility of tracking the snowball transition at the outer edge of the HZ for a variety of planetary parameters, paving the road for multi-parametric studies of the HZ., Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures, 10 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS

In high mountains, the effects of climate change are manifesting most rapidly. This is especially critical for the high-altitude carbon cycle, for which new feedbacks could be triggered. However, mountain carbon dynamics is only partially known. In particular, models of the processes driving carbon fluxes in high-altitude grasslands and Alpine tundra need to be improved. Here, we propose a comparison of three empirical approaches using systematic statistical analysis, to identify the environmental variables controlling $CO_2$ fluxes. The methods were applied to a complete dataset of simultaneous in situ measurements of the net $CO_2$ exchange, ecosystem respiration and basic environmental variables in three sampling sites in the same catchment. Large year-to-year variations in the gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) dependences on solar irradiance and temperature were observed,. We thus implemented a multi regression model in which additional variables were introduced as perturbations of the standard exponential and rectangular hyperbolic functions for ER and GPP, respectively. A comparison of this model with other common modelling strategies, showed the benefits of this approach, resulting in large explained variances (83% to 94%). The optimum ensemble of variables explaining the inter- and intra-annual flux variability included solar irradiance, soil moisture and day of the year for GPP, and air temperature, soil moisture, air pressure and day of the year for the ER, in agreement with other studies. The modelling approach discussed here provides a basis for selecting drivers of carbon fluxes and understanding their role in high-altitude Alpine ecosystems, also allowing for future short-range assessments of local trends.

Before about 500 million years ago, most probably our planet experienced temporary snowball conditions, with continental and sea ices covering a large fraction of its surface. This points to a potential bistability of Earth's climate, that can have at least two different (statistical) equilibrium states for the same external forcing (i.e., solar radiation). Here we explore the probability of finding bistable climates in earth-like exoplanets, and consider the properties of planetary climates obtained by varying the semi-major orbital axis (thus, received stellar radiation), eccentricity and obliquity, and atmospheric pressure. To this goal, we use the Earth-like planet surface temperature model (ESTM), an extension of 1D Energy Balance Models developed to provide a numerically efficient climate estimator for parameter sensitivity studies and long climatic simulations. After verifying that the ESTM is able to reproduce Earth climate bistability, we identify the range of parameter space where climate bistability is detected. An intriguing result of the present work is that the planetary conditions that support climate bistability are remarkably similar to those required for the sustainance of complex, multicellular life on the planetary surface. The interpretation of this result deserves further investigation, given its relevance for the potential distribution of life in exoplanetary systems., Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

Quantitative estimate of observational uncertainty is an essential ingredient to correctly interpret changes in climatic and environmental variables such as wildfires. In this work we compare four state-of-the-art satellite fire products with the gridded, ground-based EFFIS dataset for Mediterranean Europe and analyse their statistical differences. The data are compared for spatial and temporal similarities at different aggregations to identify a spatial scale at which most of the observations provide equivalent results. The results of the analysis indicate that the datasets show high temporal correlation with each other (0.5/0.6) when aggregating the data at resolution of at least 1.0{\deg} or at NUTS3 level. However, burned area estimates vary widely between datasets. Filtering out satellite fires located on urban and crop land cover classes greatly improves the agreement with EFFIS data. Finally, in spite of the differences found in the area estimates, the spatial pattern is similar for all the datasets, with spatial correlation increasing as the resolution decreases. Also, the general reasonable agreement between satellite products builds confidence in using these datasets and in particular the most-recent developed dataset, FireCCI51, shows the best agreement with EFFIS overall. As a result, the main conclusion of the study is that users should carefully consider the limitations of the satellite fire estimates currently available, as their uncertainties cannot be neglected in the overall uncertainty estimate/cascade that should accompany global or regional change studies and that removing fires on human-dominated land areas is key to analyze forest fires estimation from satellite products., Comment: M.T. and E.T. have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sk{\l}odowska-Curie grant agreement No. 740073 (CLIM4CROP project) and grant agreement No. 748750 (SPFireSD project), respectively. The work of A.P. has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 ECOPOTENTIAL project (grant agreement No. 641762)

Kepler-452b is currently the best example of an Earth-size planet in the habitable zone of a sun-like star, a type of planet whose number of detections is expected to increase in the future. Searching for biosignatures in the supposedly thin atmospheres of these planets is a challenging goal that requires a careful selection of the targets. Under the assumption of a rocky-dominated nature for Kepler-452b, we considered it as a test case to calculate a temperature-dependent habitability index, $h_{050}$, designed to maximize the potential presence of biosignature-producing activity (Silva et al.\ 2016). The surface temperature has been computed for a broad range of climate factors using a climate model designed for terrestrial-type exoplanets (Vladilo et al.\ 2015). After fixing the planetary data according to the experimental results (Jenkins et al.\ 2015), we changed the surface gravity, CO$_2$ abundance, surface pressure, orbital eccentricity, rotation period, axis obliquity and ocean fraction within the range of validity of our model. For most choices of parameters we find habitable solutions with $h_{050}>0.2$ only for CO$_2$ partial pressure $p_\mathrm{CO_2} \lesssim 0.04$\,bar. At this limiting value of CO$_2$ abundance the planet is still habitable if the total pressure is $p \lesssim 2$\,bar. In all cases the habitability drops for eccentricity $e \gtrsim 0.3$. Changes of rotation period and obliquity affect the habitability through their impact on the equator-pole temperature difference rather than on the mean global temperature. We calculated the variation of $h_{050}$ resulting from the luminosity evolution of the host star for a wide range of input parameters. Only a small combination of parameters yield habitability-weighted lifetimes $\gtrsim 2$\,Gyr, sufficiently long to develop atmospheric biosignatures still detectable at the present time., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, MNRAS accepted