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Population projections rely on one-sex renewal models. Consequently, changing the projection of male mortality does not affect the projection of birth, contradicting commonsense. A two-sex renewal model is presented in this paper to provide a better description of reproduction and more reasonable population projections. This model is nonlinear and includes the one-sex renewal models as special cases. In this model, age-specific birth rates are defined for two sexes jointly; total fertility, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate are also derived for two sexes jointly; and age-specific populations approach or converge to stable status. Applying the two-sex renewal model to Australia, it indicates that one-sex models underestimated the intrinsic growth rate by 14 percent. Compared to the results of one-sex models, the two-sex model would provide higher growth rate for low-fertility countries, and lower growth rate for high-fertility countries. In other words, the one-sex models are commonly biased. If the two-sex model is applied to all the countries, it would project smaller populations for the world in the future.

Objectives This article focuses on the older Latino undocumented population and anticipates how their current demographic characteristics and health insurance coverage might affect future population size and health insurance trends. Methods We use the 2013–2018 American Community Survey as a baseline to project growth in the Latino 55 and older undocumented population over the next 20 years. We use the cohort component method to estimate population size across different migration scenarios and distinguish between aging in place and new immigration. We also examine contemporary health insurance coverage and chronic health conditions among 55 and older undocumented Latinos from the 2003–2014 California Health Interview Survey. We then project health insurance rates in 2038 among Latino immigrants under different migration and policy scenarios. Results If current mortality, migration, and policy trends continue, projections estimate that 40% of undocumented Latino immigrants will be 55 years or older by 2038—nearly all of whom will have aged in place. Currently, 40% of older Latino undocumented immigrants do not have insurance. Without policies that increase access to insurance, projections estimate that the share who are uninsured among all older Latinos immigrants will rise from 15% to 21%, and the share who is both uninsured and living with a chronic health condition will rise from 5% to 9%. Discussion Without access to health care, older undocumented immigrants may experience delayed care and more severe morbidity. Our projections highlight the need to develop and enact policies that can address impending health access concerns for an increasingly older undocumented Latino population.

Precise multi-scenario projections of future economic outputs based on localised interpretations of global scenarios and major growth drivers are important for understanding long-term economic changes. However, few studies have focussed on localised interpretations, and many assume regional uniformity or use key parameters that are recursive or extrapolated by mathematical methods. This study provides a more intuitive and robust economic framework for projecting regional economic growth based on a neoclassical economic model and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. A non-uniform version of SSP2 (the middle-of-the-road scenario) was developed, and more detailed population projections for China were adopted using municipal-level data for 340 districts and parameter settings based on China’s recent development. The results show that China’s GDP will vary substantially across SSPs by 2050. Per capita GDP ranges from 19,300 USD under SSP3 (fragmentation) to 41,100 USD under SSP5 (conventional development). Per capita GDP under SSP1 (sustainability) is slightly higher than under SSP2, but lower on average than under SSP5. However, SSP1 is a better choice overall because environmental quality and equity are higher. Per capita GDP growth will generally be higher in relatively low-income regions by 2050, and the upper-middle-income provinces will become China’s new engine for economic growth.

Specific ethnocentric international migration processes can be observed in Hungary: a significant proportion of immigrants are of Hungarian ethnic background and come from neighboring countries. Similar processes can be observed between other kin-states and co-ethnic communities of Central and Eastern Europe, but this type of migration has not been studied intensively yet. The focus of the research is on the effects of this immigration on Hungarian society and the economy. Population projections were also carried out according to two research questions: “what would have happened if the immigrants had not arrived according to the processes that were experienced?” and “what will happen if the immigration process changes?” The research is based on the 2011 census data sets; the target group is the population born in neighboring countries that moved to Hungary after 1985. Results show that the ethnic Hungarian immigrant population has been a crucial human resource in Hungary. Without these immigrants, Hungary's demographic trends would also be less favorable. Moreover, in contrast to the situation typical of European immigrants, the socio-economic situation of the former is more favorable than of the host society. Potential decline of this immigration population could indeed be challenging.

Until the 1970s the Asia-born population of Australia remained small due to the racist White Australia Policy which denied entry to non-Europeans. Following its abolition in the early 1970s, Asian immigration progressively intensified, and in 2016 the Asia-born population of the country reached a total of 2.7 million, though the older population aged 65+ remained relatively small. This paper presents new projections of Australia's older Asia-born populations from 2016 to 2056 created with a new birthplace projection model. The results show substantial growth of the older Asia-born population can be expected over coming decades, along with changing composition by country of birth. The Asia-born proportion of Australia's older population overall is projected to rise from just 6 per cent in 2016 to 19 per cent in 2056. These coming demographic changes present challenges and opportunities - in particular relating to the provision of culturally appropriate residential and community aged care.

Background: We consider the problem of quantifying the human lifespan using a statistical approach that probabilistically forecasts the maximum reported age at death (MRAD) through 2100. Objective: We seek to quantify the probability that any person attains various extreme ages, such as those above 120, by the year 2100. Methods: We use the exponential survival model for supercentenarians (people over age 110) of Rootzen and Zholud (2017) but extend the forecasting window, quantify population uncertainty using Bayesian population projections, and incorporate the most recent data from the International Database on Longevity (IDL) to obtain unconditional estimates of the distribution of MRAD this century in a fully Bayesian analysis. Results: We find that the exponential survival model for supercentenarians is consistent with the most recent IDL data and that projections of the population aged 110–114 through 2080 are sensible. We integrate over the posterior distributions of the exponential model parameter and uncertainty in the supercentenarian population projections to estimate an unconditional distribution of MRAD by 2100. Conclusions: Based on the Bayesian analysis, there is a greater than 99% probability that the current MRAD of 122 will be broken by 2100. We estimate the probabilities that a person lives to at least age 126, 128, or 130 this century, as 89%, 44%, and 13%, respectively. Contribution: We have updated the supercentenarian survival model of Rootzen and Zholud using the most recent IDL data, incorporated Bayesian population projections, and extended the forecasting window to create the first fully Bayesian and unconditional probabilistic projection of MRAD by 2100.

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) rates have increased dramatically in the recent decades worldwide, with Germany being one of the leading countries in the prevalence of THA. Simultaneously, a rising number of revision procedures is expected, which will put an enormous economic burden on future health care systems. Nationwide data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany were used to quantify primary and revision arthroplasty rates as a function of age and gender. Projections were performed with use of Negative Binomial and Poisson regression models on historical procedure rates in relation to population projections from 2020 to 2060. A 62% increase in the incidence rate of primary THAs is projected until 2060. At the same time, the annual total number of revision procedures is forecast to rise about 40% by the year 2060. The highest numbers of revision arthroplasties were calculated around year 2043. The greatest proportions of revision surgery will be observed in women and in those aged 70 years or older. The revision burden is projected to stabilize around 15% by 2060. The present projections allow a quantification of the increasing economic burden that (revision) THA will place on the German health care system in the upcoming decades. This study may serve as a model for other countries with similar demographic development as the country-specific approach predicts a substantial increase in the number of these procedures. This highlights the need for appropriate financial and human resource management in the future.

This study has examined the fiscal impacts of the demographic transition. Declining fertility rate and increasing life expectancy rate are expected to cause ageing in Pakistan. The population projections of United Nation’s World Population Prospects were used, for projecting the labour force, which uses different scenarios to project population namely low variant, medium variant and high variant scenario. The study found that projected labour force is expected to decline under the medium variant scenario. The study examined the impact of expected decline in labour force on output growth of Pakistan using growth accounting technique, and found that under medium variant scenario, Pakistan is expected to face a loss of 4% of GDP at the end of this century. On the expenditure side, this study attempted to measure the impact of demographic transition on pension expenditures. Due to the increase in the proportion of the dependent population pension expenditures are expected to rise from 1.2% of GDP in 2015 to 3.5% of GDP by the end of the century. Due to the increase in old-age dependency ratio and hike in pension expenditures of Pakistan pay-as-you-go pension system is expected to become fiscally unsustainable as fewer workers would be bearing the burden of aged population. This fact advocates transition from pay-as-you-go pension system to fully funded pension system.

BackgroundPolicy responses to the Global Financial Crisis emphasized wide-ranging fiscal austerity measures, many of which have been found to negatively impact health outcomes. This paper investigates change in patterns of mortality at local authority level in England (2010–11 to 2017–18) and the relation with fiscal austerity measures.MethodsData from official local authority administrative records are used to quantify the gap between observed deaths and what was anticipated in the 2010-based subnational population projections. Regression analyses are used to explore the relation between excess deaths, austerity and wider process of population change at local authority level.ResultsWe estimate 231 707 total excess deaths, the majority of which occurred since 2014–15 (89%) across the majority of local authorities (91%). Austerity is positively associated with excess deaths. For working age adults, there is a clear gradient to the impact of austerity, whereas for older adults, the impact is more uniform.ConclusionsFiscal austerity policies contributed to an excess of deaths for older people and widened social inequalities for younger populations. These results call for an end to all austerity measures and require further research into areas with the highest total excess deaths as a priority following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Aims/hypothesis Type 2 diabetes can lead to reduced productivity during working age. We aimed to estimate productive life years lost associated with type 2 diabetes on the individual and population level in Germany in 2020 and 2040, while accounting for future trends in mortality. Methods Based on a mathematical projection model, we estimated age- and sex-specific productivity losses associated with type 2 diabetes during working age (20–69 years) in Germany in 2020 and 2040. Productivity losses in terms of excess mortality (years of life lost, YLL) and reductions in labour force participation, presenteeism and absenteeism (years of productivity lost, YPL) were summed to calculate productivity-adjusted life years (PALY) lost. Input data for the projection were based on meta-analyses, representative population-based studies and population projections to account for future trends in mortality. Results Compared with a person without type 2 diabetes, mean PALY lost per person with type 2 diabetes in 2020 was 2.6 years (95% CI 2.3, 3.0). Of these 2.6 years, 0.4 (95% CI 0.3, 0.4) years were lost due to YLL and 2.3 (95% CI 1.9, 2.6) years were lost due to YPL. Age- and sex-specific results show that younger age groups and women are expected to lose more productive life years than older age groups and men. Population-wide estimates suggest that 4.60 (95% CI 4.58, 4.63) million people with prevalent type 2 diabetes in 2020 are expected to lose 12.06 (95% CI 10.42, 13.76) million PALY (1.62 million years due to YLL and 10.44 million years due to YPL). In 2040, individual-level PALY lost are projected to slightly decrease due to reductions in YLL. In contrast, population-wide PALY lost are projected to increase to 15.39 (95% CI 13.19, 17.64) million due to an increase in the number of people with type 2 diabetes to 5.45 (95% CI 5.41, 5.50) million. Conclusions/interpretation On the population level, a substantial increase in productivity burden associated with type 2 diabetes was projected for Germany between 2020 and 2040. Efforts to reduce the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes and diabetes-related complications may attenuate this increase. Graphical abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused extensive disruption to economies and societies across the world. In terms of demographic processes, mortality has risen in many countries, international migration and mobility has been widely curtailed, and rising unemployment and job insecurity is expected to lower fertility rates in the near future. This paper attempts to examine the possible effects of COVID-19 on Australia's demography over the next two decades, focusing in particular on population ageing. Several population projections were prepared for the period 2019-41. We formulated three scenarios in which the pandemic has a short-lived impact of 2-3 years, a moderate impact lasting about 5 years, or a severe impact lasting up to a decade. We also created two hypothetical scenarios, one of which illustrates Australia's demographic future in the absence of a pandemic for comparative purposes, and another which demonstrates the demographic consequences if Australia had experienced excess mortality equivalent to that recorded in the first half of 2020 in England & Wales. Our projections show that the pandemic will probably have little impact on numerical population ageing but a moderate effect on structural ageing. Had Australia experienced the high mortality observed in England & Wales there would have been 19,400 excess deaths. We caution that considerable uncertainty surrounds the future trajectory of COVID-19 and therefore the demographic responses to it. The pandemic will need to be monitored closely and projection scenarios updated accordingly.

Objetivo: Estimar a taxa de prevalência e o número de pessoas com hipertensão e a expectativa de vida livre e com hipertensão arterial da população idosa do estado do Ceará, da Região Nordeste e do Brasil, para o ano de 2008, e apresentar o cenário dos indicadores para o ano de 2020. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo quantitativo, elaborado a partir de dados populacionais da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios e das Projeções Populacionais disponibilizados pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Estima-se a prevalência e a população idosa com hipertensão, e utiliza-se o método de Sullivan para calcular a esperança de vida sem e com hipertensão. Resultados: Nos anos de 2008 e 2020, a prevalência de hipertensão entre idosos foi superior a 50% entre o sexo feminino e 40% entre o sexo masculino, assim como a proporção da expectativa de vida aos 60 anos a ser vivida com hipertensão, sendo observados valores mais elevados para o Brasil em comparação com o Nordeste e o Ceará. Nesse período, espera-se um aumento do número de idosos com hipertensão em mais de 40% no Brasil e ao redor de 30% no Nordeste e no Ceará. Conclusão: O ritmo do envelhecimento populacional contribui para o crescimento da população idosa com hipertensão. A prevalência e a expectativa de vida com hipertensão apresentam especificidades regionais. Regra geral, a prevalência de hipertensão é elevada entre os idosos, de modo que parte significativa da expectativa de vida aos 60 anos deverá ser vivida com o problema da hipertensão.

Background Monitoring of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence can complement case reporting to inform more accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection burden, but few studies have undertaken repeated sampling over time on a broad geographic scale. Methods We performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual serum obtained from persons of all ages, at 10 sites in the United States from 23 March through 14 August 2020, from routine clinical testing at commercial laboratories. We standardized our seroprevalence rates by age and sex, using census population projections and adjusted for laboratory assay performance. Confidence intervals were generated with a 2-stage bootstrap. We used bayesian modeling to test whether seroprevalence changes over time were statistically significant. Results Seroprevalence remained below 10% at all sites except New York and Florida, where it reached 23.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Statistically significant increases in seroprevalence followed peaks in reported cases in New York, South Florida, Utah, Missouri, and Louisiana. In the absence of such peaks, some significant decreases were observed over time in New York, Missouri, Utah, and Western Washington. The estimated cumulative number of infections with detectable antibody response continued to exceed reported cases in all sites. Conclusions Estimated seroprevalence was low in most sites, indicating that most people in the United States had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 as of July 2020. The majority of infections are likely not reported. Decreases in seroprevalence may be related to changes in healthcare-seeking behavior, or evidence of waning of detectable anti–SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels at the population level. Thus, seroprevalence estimates may underestimate the cumulative incidence of infection.

This study proposes a framework to forecast the spatial distribution of population and residential buildings for the assessment of future disaster risk. The approach accounts for the number, location, and characteristics of future assets considering sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in several time-dependent variables. The value of the methodology is demonstrated at the urban scale using an earthquake scenario for the Great Metropolitan Area of Costa Rica. Hundreds of trajectories representing future urban growth were generated using geographically weighted regression and multiple-agent systems. These were converted into exposure models featuring the spatial correlation of urban expansion and the densification of the built environment. The forecasted earthquake losses indicate a mean increase in the absolute human and economic losses by 2030. However, the trajectory of relative risk is reducing, suggesting that the long-term enforcement of seismic regulations and urban planning are effectively lowering seismic risk in the case of Costa Rica.

Secularization and migration have substantially affected the place of the Protestant Church in the Austrian society in the last decades. The number of members has been shrinking markedly from 447 thousand members in 1971 to 278 thousand in 2018. The trend is visible across all provinces, although the magnitude is stronger in Vienna where both disaffiliation and international migration are stronger: In the capital city, the Protestant population diminished from 126 thousand to 47 thousand over the 1971-2018 period. Using population projections of membership to the Protestant Church, we look at the potential future of affiliation to the Protestant Church in Austria, and in three provinces: Burgenland, Carinthia, and Vienna from 2018 to 2048, considering different paths of fertility and disaffiliation. We also look at the impact of different scenarios regarding the composition of international migration flows on affiliation to the Protestant Church. Our findings suggest that in the absence of compensatory flows, the Protestant Church will keep shrinking unless it manages to stop disaffiliation. The projections also show that migrants, especially within mobile Europe, are a potential source of members that is at present not properly contributing to membership in Austria. According to the TREND EUROPE scenario, which is – seen from today – the most likely scenario with a continuation of declining entries and increased exits, the Protestant population in Austria would still decline from 283 thousand in 2018 to 144 thousand in 2048 (-49%). At the level of the three provinces, the decline would be faster in Vienna (-42%, from 47 to 27 thousand) than in Burgenland (-26%, from 32 to 24 thousand) and Carinthia (-37%, from 48 to 30 thousand). According to this scenario, by 2048 the Protestant population would correspond to 1.5% of the total population of Austria(1.3% in Vienna, 7.3% in Burgenland and 5.4% in Carinthia). Other scenarios reflect the potential impact of different religious composition of future migrant flows, as well as changing disaffiliation patterns. Only under the LIFT scenario, which assumes a reduction in exits by 50% and more migrants enrolling to the Protestant Church, we see an end of the haemorrhage and even an increase in the number of Protestants in Vienna.

Religious affiliation is nowadays getting plenty of attention in Austria, in the public sphere with increased presence in the news and in the policy discourse. The aim of this study is to estimate the religious composition of the population of Vorarlberg in 2018, taking advantage of available data, such as census information and statistics on components of population change. The latest census that collected data on religion was implemented in 2001 and since then population counts have been relying on register data and did not collect data on the religious affiliation of the Austrian population. Therefore, to study changes in the religious composition of the population residing in Vorarlberg, it needs to be estimated using population projections following a methodology that was developed by Goujon et al. (2017) in a project to reconstruct (and project into the future) the population of Austria and Vienna in 2016. The reconstruction shows that Vorarlberg follows similar trends as those observed in Austria since 2001: 1) The share of Roman Catholics declines strongly, 2) there is a strong increase in the population with no religious affiliation, and 3) the share of Muslims has increased substantially which is the outcome of two main trends-fertility and migration. The study of the origin (country of birth) of Muslims residing in Vorarlberg in 2018 points at an increasing Austrian-born population, originating from parents or grandparents born predominantly in Turkey but also at a diversification as a result of the 2015 refugee crisis.

In 2017, Pakistan implemented a long-awaited population census since the last one conducted in 1998. However, several experts are contesting the validity of the census data at the sub-national level, in the absence of a post-enumeration survey. We propose in this paper to use demographic analysis to assess the quality of the 2017 census at the sub-national level, using the 1998 census data and all available intercensal surveys. Applying the cohort-component method of population projection, we subject each six first-level subnational entities for which data are available to estimates regarding the level of fertility, mortality, international, and internal migration. We arrive at similar results as the census at the national level: an estimated 212.4 million compared to 207.7 million counted (2.3% difference). However, we found more variations at the sub-national level.

The population of the Nordic region has grown substantially during recent decades, though most of this growth has been in urban regions. While the Nordic countries are projected to see continued population growth in the future, almost all of the increase will be concentrated in urban centres, with population decline or stagnation in many rural municipalities. This will make it difficult for these regions to remain economically competitive and for national governments to provide a uniform level of services across entire countries. This article provides policymakers at the national, regional, and municipal levels with projections of the size, composition, and geographic distribution of rural populations in the Nordic countries in 2040. In total, remote rural regions will not become depopulated and are projected to grow moderately from 5.3 to 5.5 million persons to 2040, though many will experience significant declines in their total and working-age populations and will have much older age structures. For many rural municipalities in the Nordic region, their population peak was at some point in the distant past, and they should therefore develop policies based on smaller populations.

I sami smo svjesni kako demografska obiljeţja Slavonije, iz godine u godinu, postaju sve nepovoljnija te se sve više i više istraţivanja provodi na tu temu. Prostor Našica vrlo je malo istraţivan, što se posebice odnosi na proučavanje stanovništva i procesa vezanih uz samo stanovništvo. Stoga će ovaj rad analizirati demografska stanja na području Grada Našica, a naglašena će biti stanja od 1991. godine do danas. Analizirat će se ukupno kretanje stanovnika, prirodna promjena, fertilitet te drugi pokazatelji poput gospodarskih struktura, migracija i sličnog. U kasnijem dijelu rada, fokus je na budućim stanjima unutar promatranog područja gdje će se buduća demografska stanja ogledati u projekciji stanovništva. We are aware that the demographic characteristics of Slavonia, throughout several years are becoming increasingly unfavorable and more and more researches are being conducted on this topic. The area of Našice is poorly researched, which especially refers to the study of the population and the processes related to the population itself. Therefore, this thesis will analyze the demographic situation in the area of the City of Našice, and the situation from 1991 to the present will be emphasized. The total population number, natural change, fertility and other indicators such as economic structures, migration and such will be analyzed. In the later part of this thesis, the focus is on future conditions within the observed area.

In a first-ever nation-wide census tract evaluation, we assess the accuracy of the Hamilton–Perry population projection method for 65,221 census tracts. We started with 73,607 census tracts but eliminated those for which zeros appeared in age/sex groups. The test uses 1990 and 2000 census tract data by age and gender to construct cohort change ratios, which are then applied to 2000 census tract data to generate 2010 Hamilton–Perry projections that are evaluated in an ex post facto test against the reported 2010 census tract data by age and gender. The projections include: (1) uncontrolled age and gender projections; and (2) age and gender projections controlled to a projection of the population total by census tract. Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is used to evaluate precision and Mean Algebraic Percent Error (MALPE) is used to evaluate bias. We find that controlling the Hamilton–Perry projections by age for each tract to the linearly projected total population of each tract reduces both MAPE and MALPE within age groups by gender and for total females and total males. As this result suggests, simple linear extrapolation provides more accurate projections of the total population than does the Hamilton–Perry Method. However, even with controlling we find the Hamilton–Perry projections by age to be biased upward. Finally, we use MAPE-R (MAPE- Revised) to evaluate the effect of extreme outliers and find that high MAPEs in the uncontrolled projections are largely driven by extreme errors (outliers) found in less than 1 percent of the 65,221 census tracts used in the study.

Counterfactual population projections have been used to estimate the contributions of fertility and mortality to population ageing, a method recently designated as the gold standard for this purpose. We analyse projections with base years between 1850 and 1950 for 11 European countries with long-run demographic data series to estimate the robustness of this approach. We link this approach with stable population theory to derive quantitative indicators of the role of fertility and mortality; consider ways of incorporating net migration; and examine the effect of using alternative indicators of population ageing. A number of substantive and technical weaknesses in the counterfactual projection approach are identified: (1) the conclusions are very sensitive to the choice of base year. Specifically, the level of base year fertility has a major influence on whether fertility or mortality is considered the main driver of population ageing. (2) The method is not transitive: results for two adjacent intervals are unrelated to results for the combined period. Therefore, overall results cannot be usefully allocated between different sub-intervals. (3) Different ageing indices tend to produce similar qualitative conclusions, but quantitative results may differ markedly. (4) Comparisons of alternative models should be with a fixed fertility and mortality projection model rather than with the baseline values as usually done. (5) The standard counterfactual projections approach concatenates the effects of initial age structure and subsequent fertility and mortality rates: methods to separate these components are derived.

Municipal solid waste generation and disposal is a problem not only in India but all over the world. Presently majority of such waste is being dumped indiscriminately over vacant lands causing problems of odor, methane generation leading to air pollution, leaching effect polluting ground water and runoff polluting water bodies. Technological options are available to treat this solid waste and convert it into usable products but the biggest problem is its segregation preferably at the source of generation or even at the disposal area. Municipal solid waste generated in India consists of 15 percent nonbiodegradable which has high calorific contents and can be converted into power generation. Remaining 85 percent is degradable which can either be converted into compost or bio fuels. Under the present context, sustainable municipal waste management strategy needs to be evolved and put in place with effective implementation to address the issue of environmental pollution. An attempt has therefore been made by the authors of the present paper to take up a case study of Kanpur, India for managing such wastes having sustainable approach. The authors have worked out trends of population starting from the year 1951 and projected to 2051. Similarly waste generation trends established on the lines of population. An effort has also been made as to how much compost, bio fuel and power can be generated along with economic value to make it sustainable on a time scale.

Population projections serve various actors at subnational, national, and international levels as a quantitative basis for political and economic decision-making. Usually, the users are no experts in statistics or forecasting and therefore lack the methodological and demographic background to completely understand methods and limitations behind the projections they use to inform further analysis. Our contribution primarily targets that readership. Therefore, we give a brief overview of different approaches to population projection and discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages, alongside practical problems in population data and forecasting. Fundamental differences between deterministic and stochastic approaches are discussed, with special emphasis on the advantages of stochastic approaches. Next to selected projection data available to the public, we show central areas of application of population projections, with an emphasis on Germany.

Background Estimates of completeness of death registration are crucial to produce estimates of life tables and population projections and to estimate the burden of disease. They are an important step in assessing the quality of data. In the case of subnational data analysis in Brazil, it is important to consider spatial and temporal variation in the quality of mortality data. There are two main sources of data quality evaluation in Brazil, but there are few comparative studies and how they evolve over time. The aim of the paper is to compare and discuss alternative estimates of completeness of death registration, adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy estimates produced by the National Statistics Office (IBGE), Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), and estimates presented in Queiroz et al. (2017) and Schmertmann and Gonzaga (2018), for 1980 and 2010. Methods We provide a descriptive and comparative analysis of aforementioned estimates from four (4) sources of estimates at subnational level (26 states and one Federal District) in Brazil from two different points in time. Results We found significant differences in estimates that affect both levels and trends of completeness of adult mortality in Brazil and states. IHME and Queiroz et al. (2017) estimates converge by 2010, but there are large differences when compared to estimates from the National Statistics Office (IBGE). Larger differences are observed for less developed states. We have showed that the quality of mortality data in Brazil has improved steadily overtime, but with large regional variations. However, we have observed that IBGE estimates show the lowest levels of completeness for the Northern of the country compared to other estimates. Choice of methods and approaches might lead to very unexpected results. Conclusion We produced a detailed comparative analysis of estimates of completeness of death registration from different sources and discuss the main results and possible explanations for these differences. We have also showed that new improved methods are still needed to study adult mortality in less developed countries and at a subnational level. More comparative studies are important in order to improve quality of estimates in Brazil.

Population census is an important moment of the realization of the unification of data from registration data generated by the Population and Civil Registry Office and projection data from the Central Statistics Agency. Based on the description above, the following problems can be formulated: How Important is the Population Administration Regarding One Line Population Census in Pertima Village, Karangasem District, Karangasem Regency? What are the obstacles and efforts to implement an online census in Pertima Village, Karangasem District, Karangasem Regency? In this study, the research method used was interviews, literature study by reading literature related to population censuses, observations and field research, where research was conducted by jumping directly into Pertima Village. The results showed that online population administration is very important, namely: providing data on the number, composition, distribu- tion, and characteristics of Pertima Village residents according to de facto and de jure towards the Indonesian Population Data. Second, namely providing demographic parameters and population projections (fertility, mortality, and migration), as well as other population characteristics for the purposes of population projection and various indicators of Sustainable Development Targets (SDGs). The obstacle faced in population data collection is the difficulty of logging online popu- lation censuses, internet network constraints, people who are still technologically unfamiliar. To overcome this problem is done by giving socialization to village officials so that they can guide their citizens to the online census. Utilizing a cellphone that has Androi facilities so that it can access the internet with speed.

Young adults migrate more than elderly people. As populations in many origin countries get older, this may affect out-migration – and thus immigration to other countries. This is usually not taken into account in projections of future immigration, even though a marked ageing is expected to take place globally. We show how United Nations’ projections of future age profiles in origin countries can be combined with emigration rates by age groups to improve national projections of immigration to a destination country, exemplified by Norway. Using several methods for projecting future migration, our results show that projected immigration tends to decline when taking expected ageing in origin regions into account. Further, we demonstrate how such declines in projected immigration affect the projections for the total Norwegian population up to 2100. Our results suggest that by taking changing age profiles in origin regions into account in immigration projections, the projected population size in Norway would be reduced equivalent to that of reducing the fertility assumptions by 0.1 children per woman.

Early population projections described future changes in total population and could foresee unsustainable population growth. Age-specific population projections could identify trends in population ageing and demographic dividends, and they have been widely used in recent decades owing to the efforts of collecting and estimating demographic data by age. In recent years, data are becoming available to allow for population projections by age and birth parity, which could help understanding future changes in family structures. To take advantage of the opportunity created by these increasingly accessible data, this paper extends the cohort component method to project populations by age and birth parity and provides an application for Canada.

In most more developed countries, the total fertility rate (TFR) is below 2.1 and net immigration is positive. This paper proposes and calculates for 22 populations for 2011–15 a ‘Current Migration Replacement TFR’ which in combination with the mortality and absolute net migration for that period generates a stationary population equal in size to the mid-period population. The results show the Current Migration Replacement TFR ranges widely from 0.60 for Singapore to 2.05 for Slovakia. That the Current Migration Replacement TFR is below the 2011–15 TFR in 14 of the 22 countries shows that, when considered in combination with current migration and mortality, in most of the countries the current ‘below 2.1’ TFR is coherent with population increase, not population decline, over the long run. For New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Sweden and the UK continued current fertility in combination with constant mortality and constant absolute net migration is coherent with more than doubling of the current population size. The value of this measure for illustrating the interconnected population size implications of sub-replacement fertility and immigration, for sub-categorisation of ‘post-transitional’ populations by population growth prospects, and for guiding population policy is discussed. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-020-09566-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Objectives: To assess levels of numerical, structural, timing and spatial aspects of ageing of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Methods: Population projections for 15 Australian regions were created by a multi‐state cohort‐component model. Results: The older (45‐plus) population grew from 29,815 in 1986 to 167,259 in 2016. In the subsequent 30 years, we project growth to 448,785 people. Growth rates of the older population vary: from 200% in the 60–64‐year‐old group to 800% growth in the 85‐plus age group by mid‐century. This strong numerical ageing is reflected in a shift in structural ageing by about six percentage points. Selected areas outside of capital cities are structurally older than many cities. Numerical ageing is strongest in capital cities and New South Wales. Cohort flow is the primary driver of ageing. Conclusions: Numerical and structural ageing is projected to increase significantly to mid‐century with important spatial variations. Population ageing is largely irreversible. Implications for public health: High numerical growth in the older Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population poses implications for increased demand for a range of health and care services. Variations in spatial and timing aspects of ageing indicate demand will peak earlier in some geographical locations relative to others.

A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers.

Purpose Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) rates have increased substantially in the recent decades worldwide, with Germany being one of the leading countries in the prevalence of TKA. The aim of this study was to provide an overview of treatment changes during the last decade and to project the expected burden of primary and revision TKA (rTKA) for the next 30 years. Methods Comprehensive nationwide data from Germany was used to quantify primary and revision TKA rates as a function of age and gender. Projections were performed with use of a Poisson regression models and a combination of exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models on historical procedure rates in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2050. Results The incidence rate of primary TKAs is projected to increase by around 43% to 299 per 100,000 inhabitants [95% CI 231–368], leading to a projected total number of 225,957 primary TKAs in 2050 (95% CI 178,804–276,442). This increase has been related to a growing number of TKA performed in male patients, with the highest increase modelled in patients between 50 and 65 years of age. At the same time, the annual total number of revision procedures is forecast to increase even more rapidly by almost 90%, accounting for 47,313 (95% CI 15,741–78,885; IR = 62.7 per 100,000, 95% CI 20.8–104.5) procedures by 2050. Those numbers are primarily associated with a rising number of rTKAs secondary to periprosthetic joint infection (PJI). Conclusions Using this country- specific forecast approach, a rising number of primary TKA and an even more rapidly growing number of rTKA, especially for PJI, has been projected until 2050, which will inevitably provide a huge challenge for the future health care system. As many other industrialized nations will face similar demographic and procedure-specific developments, these forecasts should be alarming for many health care systems worldwide and emphasize the tremendous need for an appropriate financial and human resource management in the future. Level of evidence Level III, prognostic study, economic and decision analysis.

Model migration age schedules have proved valuable to demographers for a range of applications for over 40 years. The original Rogers-Castro curve has been extended over time to include a retirement curve, a post-retirement curve, and a student peak. With demographic analyses extending to higher age groups than in the past due to population ageing, it is important for the model schedule to faithfully reflect migration patterns at advanced ages. Recent data on internal migration in the nonagenarian and centenarian ages reveals several examples of rising then falling mobility with increasing age. This paper suggests an alternative specification of the post-retirement curve of the model schedule to reflect this pattern. The modified model migration schedule is successfully fitted to example internal migration age patterns from Australia, Canada and the Netherlands. The modified schedule should prove useful in preparing input data for population projections and analyses of migration age patterns extending to the highest ages.

SummaryAlthough the population of Griffon VultureGyps fulvusis significantly increasing in Europe, in Italy the species is still on the Red List as ‘Critically Endangered’, with the last natural population persisting on the island of Sardinia. Several episodes of poisoning hampered the success of conservation actions implemented in the years 1987–1995. In 2005 there were estimated to be only 31–32 territorial pairs, with the population occupying the territories of Alghero and Bosa. We used a long-term dataset of reproductive records from the Sardinian Griffon Vulture populations to run a population viability analysis (PVA) to evaluate the extinction risk using the Vortex simulation software. The model estimated the probability of extinction over the next five generations (estimated generation time: 11 years, simulation time used: 55 years) as 96.4% for the Alghero population, and near-zero for the Bosa population. We used sensitivity analyses to understand how uncertainty about parameter values affect model outcomes. Population projections were evaluated under different management scenarios tackling the main threats (poisoning and human disturbance) and implementing conservation actions (supplementary feeding and restocking). Our results showed that population size is a critical factor in affecting the projections of population dynamics of Griffon Vultures. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of poisoning events to population persistence and showed that juvenile and adult mortality rates had a secondary impact on population viability. The only conservation measure effective in significantly increasing stochastic growth rates in the Alghero population, whose initial population was set at five individuals, was the complete removal of poisoning events. When targeting the Bosa population (initial population size 94 individuals), supplementary feeding, mitigation of the risk of poisoning episodes, restocking, and mitigation of human disturbance in the reproductive sites significantly increased stochastic growth rate. A cost-effectiveness analysis should be performed to prioritise interventions.

Background Future projections for both TKA and THA in the United States and other countries forecast a further increase of already high numbers of joint replacements. The consensus is that in industrialized countries, this increase is driven by demographic changes with more elderly people being less willing to accept activity limitations. Unlike the United States, Germany and many other countries face a population decline driven by low fertility rates, longer life expectancy, and immigration rates that cannot compensate for population aging. Many developing countries are likely to follow that example in the short or medium term amid global aging. Due to growing healthcare expenditures in a declining and aging population with a smaller available work force, reliable predictions of procedure volume by age groups are requisite for health and fiscal policy makers to maintain high standards in arthroplasty for the future population.Questions/purposes (1) By how much is the usage of primary TKA and THA in Germany expected to increase from 2016 through 2040? (2) How is arthroplasty usage in Germany expected to vary as a function of patient age during this time span? Methods The annual number of primary TKAs and THAs were calculated based on population projections and estimates of future healthcare expenditures as a percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany. For this purpose, a Poisson regression analysis using age, gender, state, healthcare expenditure, and calendar year as covariates was performed. The dependent variable was the historical number of primary TKAs and THAs performed as compiled by the German federal office of statistics for the years 2005 through 2016. Results Through 2040, the incidence rate for both TKA and THA will continue to increase annually. For TKA, the incidence rate is expected to increase from 245 TKAs per 100,000 inhabitants to 379 (297-484) (55%, 95% CI 21 to 98). The incidence rate of THAs is anticipated to increase from 338 to 437 (357-535) per 100,000 inhabitants (29% [95% CI 6 to 58]) between 2016 and 2040. The total number of TKAs is expected to increase by 45% (95% CI 14 to 8), from 168,772 procedures in 2016 to 244,714 (95% CI 191,920 to 312,551) in 2040. During the same period, the number of primary THAs is expected to increase by 23% (95% CI 0 to 50), from 229,726 to 282,034 (95% CI 230,473 to 345,228). Through 2040, the greatest increase in TKAs is predicted to occur in patients aged 40 to 69 years (40- to 49-year-old patients: 269% (95% CI 179 to 390); 50- to 59-year-old patients: 94% (95% CI 48 to 141); 60- to 69-year-old patients: 43% (95% CI 13 to 82). The largest increase in THAs is expected in the elderly (80- to 89-year-old patients (71% [95% CI 40 to 110]). Conclusions Although the total number of TKAs and THAs is projected to increase in Germany between now and 2040, the increase will be smaller than that previously forecast for the United States, due in large part to the German population decreasing over that time, while the American population increases. Much of the projected increase in Germany will be from the use of TKA in younger patients and from the use of THA in elderly patients. Knowledge of these trends may help planning by surgeons, hospitals, stakeholders, and policy makers in countries similar to Germany, where high incidence rates of arthroplasty, aging populations, and overall decreasing populations are present. Level of evidence Level III, economic and decision analysis.

Precipitation-related extremes are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warmer climate, particularly for China, a region vulnerable to global warming and with a large population. Understanding the impacts and risks induced by future extreme precipitation changes is critical for mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, extreme precipitation changes under different levels of global warming and their associated impacts on populations in China are investigated using multimodel climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and population projections under Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Heavy precipitation would intensify with warming across China at a rate of 6.52% (5.22%–8.57%) per degree of global warming. The longest dry spell length would increase (decrease) south (north) of ~34°N. The low warming target of the Paris Agreement could substantially reduce the extreme precipitation related impacts compared to higher warming levels. For the area weighted average changes, the intensification in wet extremes could be reduced by 3.22%, 9.42% and 16.70% over China, and the lengthening of dry spells could be reduced by 0.72%, 4.75% and 5.31% in southeastern China, respectively, if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C as compared to 2, 3 and 4 °C. The Southeastern China is the hotspot of enhanced impacts due to the dense population. The impacts on populations induced by extreme precipitation changes are dominated by climate change, while future population redistribution plays a minor role.

This paper forecasts the world population using the Autoregressive Integration Moving Average (ARIMA) for estimation and projection for short-range and long-term population sizes of the world, regions and sub-regions. The study provides evidence that growth and population explosion will continue in Sub-Saharan Africa, tending the need to aggressively promote pragmatic programmes that will balance population growth and sustainable economic growth in the region. The study argued that early projections took for granted the positive and negative implications of population growth on the social structure and offset the natural process, which might have implication(s) on survival rate. Given the obvious imbalance in population growth across continents and regions of the world, a more purposeful inter-regional and economic co-operation that supports and enhances population balancing and economic expansion among nations is highly recommended. In this regard, the United Nations should compel member states to vigorously and effectively implement domestic and international support programmes with this objective in view.

Based on Vietnam’s 2009 population census, we use a population prediction model with three schemes (high, medium, and low) to predict the population and structural changes in Vietnam from 2010 to 2049, and we analyze the trend of Vietnam’s future aging population. Our results show that (1) Vietnam’s population will continue to increase in the next 40 years, but the population growth rate will continue to decline, and the population will exceed 100 million in approximately 2024; (2) Vietnam’s demographic structure will change significantly as the fertility level and life expectancy increase; and (3) Vietnam will enter an aging society starting in 2018, while the degree of aging will continue to deepen. The proportion of the population over the age of 60 in Vietnam will exceed 25% of the total population by 2049. In the next 40 years, Vietnam will face the severe challenge of an aging population.

Climate change modulates the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation, temperature, and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, PM2.5is associated with cardiopulmonary diseases and premature mortality. Here, we use seven models to assess the response of PM2.5to end of the twenty-first century climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, and the corresponding impact on premature mortality. The majority of models yield an increase in both PM2.5and premature mortality associated with lung cancer and cardiopulmonary disease in all world regions except Africa. These results are robust across five different future population projections, although the magnitude of premature deaths can vary by up to a factor of two. Much larger uncertainty is related to uncertainty in model physics and the representation of aerosol processes. Although our analysis requires several assumptions related to future population estimates, as well as the concentration-response function, results suggest that future emission reductions are necessary to avoid the likely health risks associated with increasing PM2.5in a warmer world.

Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most...

OBJECTIVE To calculate the current and projected financial burden of EGS hospital admissions in a single-payer healthcare system. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA EGS is an important acute care service, which demands significant healthcare resources. EGS admissions and associated costs have increased over time, associated with an aging demographic. The National Health Service is the sole provider of emergency care in Scotland. METHODS Principal, high and low Scottish population projections were obtained for 2016 until 2041. EGS admission data were projected using an ordinary least squares linear regression model. An exponential function, fitted to historical length of hospital stay (LOS) data, was used to project future LOS. Historical hospital unit cost per bed day was projected using a linear regression model. EGS cost was calculated to 2041 by multiplying annual projections of population, admission rates, LOS, and cost per bed day. RESULTS The adult (age >15) Scottish population is projected to increase from 4.5 million to 4.8 million between 2016 and 2041. During this time, EGS admissions are expected to increase from 83,132 to 101,090 per year, cost per bed day from £786 to £1534, and overall EGS cost from £187.3 million to £202.5 million. CONCLUSIONS The future financial burden of EGS in Scotland is projected to increase moderately between 2016 and 2041. This is in sharp contrast to previous studies from settings such as the United States. However, if no further reductions in LOS or cost per bed day are made, especially for elderly patients, the cost of EGS will rise dramatically.

Stay Well Plans are a new programme of care offered to frail and elderly people in Newport. In 2016 there were plans to roll out the programme so that it would be of- fered in all five counties of Gwent, a region of South East Wales serviced by Aneurin Bevan University Health Board. This paper presents the data analysis and mod- elling used to determine the effects of the programme on the demand of the wider system, and the effects of a Gwent-wide roll out. The analysis involves extrapolat- ing information from data from a geographical subset of the model domain to a larger geographical area, adjusting for population sizes, deprivation, and distances to healthcare facilities. These are then used to parametrise a Markov model and a Monte Carlo simulation to predict changes in demand due to different levels of roll out of the Stay Well Plans. Future population projections are also included in the analysis to examine the programme’s effect in conjunction with population growth. One of the main conclusions of the case study is that a roll out of the programme may result in a large reduction on demand at residential care services, however at the expense of an increase in demand at community care services.

O método de relação de coortes é um método demográfico utilizado para projeções populacionais por sexo e idade para pequenas áreas. Porém, devido a instabilidade dos eventos demográficos em áreas menores, o método produz resultados pouco razoáveis para alguns grupos de idade. Neste artigo aplicamos um estimador contração, bayesiano empírico, para reduzir a instabilidade nas estimativas dos fatores diferenciais de crescimento do método em áreas menores. Ao aplicarmos o método de relação de coortes, ajustado pelo bayesiano empírico, para projeções populacionais municipais no Brasil entre 2000 e 2010, observamos uma redução na variabilidade das estimativas por idade. Além disso, o método reduziu o erro percentual absoluto médio das populações projetadas nesse decênio comparativamente aos resultados obtidos com a aplicação do método original proposto por Duchesne (1989), especialmente nos grupos etários de adultos e idosos.

In our paper we try to give an overall picture about the countrywide and regional demographic characteristics of the Hungarian Roma population, to make a roll-forward calculation of the next decades until 2061 by region. It indicates the actuality of the study that in the last decades the population of the Hungarian Roma minority and its rate according to the whole Hungarian population permanently and materially increased. In the next decades in both further growth is expected, but the speed of this growth will be slower and slower. The fertility and the mortality of the Roma population will decrease, life expectancy will increase, these result in the increase of the rate of the aged population. Out estimation indicates that until 2061 the age pyramid of the gypsies’ changes, it will be more and more similar to the present one of the whole Hungarian population. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) codes: C82, J11, J13, J19

Economic development in sub-Saharan Africa has increased carbon emissions and will continue to do so. However, changes in emissions in the past few decades and their underlying drivers are not well understood. Here we use a Kaya decomposition to show that rising carbon intensity has played an increasingly important role in emission growth in sub-Saharan Africa since 2005. These changes have mainly been driven by the increasing use of oil, especially in the transportation sector. Combining investment data in the power sector with economic and population projections, we find that investments in new coal-fired capacity may become a major driver of future carbonization. Our results highlight the importance of making low-carbon technologies available and financially attractive to sub-Saharan African countries to avoid a lock-in of emission-intensive energy use patterns. GHG emissions in sub-Saharan African countries are comparatively low, but continued economic and population growth could transform the region into a major emitter. Here, it is shown that the transportation sector has driven emissions in the past few decades, but new coal investments are likely to be a major driver in the near future.

Purpose This paper aims to document the impact of Ramadan on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations taking as a sample the countries of the MENA region during the period between 2004 and 2015. The choice of these countries can be explained by the fact that their population is predominantly of a Muslim faith (The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, 2015). Design/methodology/approach The authors used univariate and multivariate regression models to highlight the existence of the Ramadan effect on the optimism of analysts. They have found that pre-holiday optimism is significantly lower than post-holiday optimism. Findings This paper also documented the effect of analysts’ experience and information uncertainty on the analysts’ optimism level that allowed us to infer that low experience enhances optimism, while environment with low information uncertainty tends to decrease the level of optimism. Originality/value Previous research on this topic has investigated the effect of months of the year, turns of the month and days-of-the-week on the behavior of stock exchanges. Another strand of the literature also analyzed the effect of holidays on the latter. However, this is the first attempt to investigate this effect on analysts’ recommendations optimism when the holiday period is related to Islam.

This article looks at why the Office for National Statistics' population projections for London released in May 2018 (the 2016-based set) indicate a considerably lower increase than its previous se...

Historical and future spatially explicit population and gross domestic product (GDP) data are essential for the analysis of future climate risks. Unlike population projections that are generally available, GDP projections—particularly for scenarios compatible with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)—are limited. Our objective is to perform a high-resolution and long-term GDP estimation under SSPs utilizing a wide variety of geographic auxiliary information. We estimated the GDP in a 1/12-degree grid scale. The estimation is done through downscaling of historical GDP data for 1850–2010 and SSP future scenario data for 2010–2100. In the downscaling, we first modeled the spatial and economic interactions among cities and projected different future urban growth patterns according to the SSPs. Subsequently, the projected patterns and other auxiliary geographic data were used to estimate the gridded GDP distributions. Finally, the GDP projections were visualized via three-dimensional mapping to enhance the clarity for multiple stakeholders. Our results suggest that the spatial pattern of urban and peri-urban GDP depends considerably on the SSPs; the GDP of the existing major cities grew rapidly under SSP1, moderately grew under SSP 2 and SSP4, slowly grew under SSP3, and dispersed growth under SSP5.

This research tracks Australia’s population growth over the period 2006–16 to examine how actual growth differed from projected growth. It also examined key drivers of population mobility in Australia to inform future urban development policy responses to demands on infrastructure and housing.