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Climate change is leading to alterations in the dynamic and thermodynamic climate systems worldwide, including the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), which supports more than a billion population and drives the Indian economy. The anthropogenic climate change induces unprecedented transformations in the natural and ecological systems, such as the increased probability of precipitation extremes, changes in their frequency, duration and spatial variabilities. This current study aims to project the regional landscape‐based metric, velocity of climate change (VoCC) and associated climatic exposure regarding precipitation extremes (PEs) for India and its different biogeographic zones. The climate velocities of mean precipitation, 95th, 99.5th and 99.9th percentiles of precipitation for the ISM season are presented for the historical and three projected time slices under the RCP8.5 scenario. ROM, a state‐of‐the‐art regional earth system model over the CORDEX‐South Asia domain, was used in the study. It was observed that the intense and very intense rainfall (95th, 99.5th and 99.9th percentiles) was enhanced over most of the study region in the near‐ and mid‐future compared to the far‐future. The intense rainfall exhibited higher climate velocity than the mean and very intense precipitation in the near‐future. The southern part of the Indian subcontinent usually displayed positive VoCC values for the historical and near‐future time slices compared to the northern part of the Indian peninsula, particularly the intense and very intense precipitation. The climatic exposure for all‐India was also higher in the near‐ and mid‐future compared to the far‐future, especially for the intense rainfall followed by the mean and very intense rainfall. These results suggest the need for focusing the adaptation and mitigation measures towards managing the near‐term impacts of PEs in relation to the long‐term impacts, especially on the country's diverse flora. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Light transmission through a multimode fiber (MMF) has gained major importance for imaging and manipulation. The majority of phase retrieval algorithms used for a MMF implicitly assume light propagation to be described by a unitary operation, yet the transmission matrix of a multimode fiber is inherently non‐unitary. It is demonstrated that this erroneous assumption can impede the performance of many commonly used MMF phase retrieval algorithms and demonstrate that the weighted Yang–Gu algorithm outperforms other phase retrieval algorithms in this scenario. Once accounted for, the non‐unitary property of the transmission matrix can be leveraged to generate intricate intensity and phase patterns at the output of the fiber, and shape specific output fields. This is experimentally demonstrated by generating Laguerre–Gaussian beams that carry orbital angular momentum, and by forming images in planes offset from the distal end of the fiber facet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Precipitation changes dynamically in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, the projection of future precipitation and its historical distribution mechanism is essential for climate mitigation and adaptation. In this study, a stepwise clustered precipitation downscaling method (SCPD) was developed and adopted in the Mediterranean region to reveal the inherent variation rules and trends over the future 100 years under two SSP scenarios. A cutting and merging multivariate process is introduced to build a cluster tree for supporting further downscaling and projecting steps. The ensemble average from the global climate model (GCM) dataset is used for precipitation projections. The precipitation performance of SCPD, evaluated by R2, is fairly decent. The precipitation projections vary with the original rainfall patterns over the gauge stations. Dry places tend to become comparably drier in the future. Precipitation in the northern Mediterranean region shows a drier winter–spring and wetter summer–autumn. Opposite trends emerged in the southern part, with increasing winter precipitation and decreasing summer rainfall. The rising carbon dioxide concentration will further intensify the decrease in rainfall. However, the centres of these two EOFs are not identical. The contributions of NAO (positive) and Niño 3.4 (negative) to PC1 are relatively high. Accordingly, the strongest positive correlation with PC2 is SCAND, as well as negative correlations with AO, NAO and EAWR. Positive anomaly precipitation is attributed to PC1, whereas PC2 is responsible for most of the negative variance precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose and study two new methods based on the golden ratio technique for approximating solutions to variational inequality problems in Hilbert space. The first method combines the golden ratio technique with the subgradient extragradient method. In the second method, we incorporate the alternating golden ratio technique into the subgradient extragradient method. Both methods use self-adaptive step sizes which are allowed to increase during the execution of the algorithms, thus limiting the dependence of our methods on the starting point of the scaling parameter. We prove that under appropriate conditions, the resulting methods converge either weakly or R-linearly to a solution of the variational inequality problem associated with a pseudomonotone operator. In order to show the numerical advantage of our methods, we first present the results of several pertinent numerical experiments and then compare the performance of our proposed methods with that of some existing methods which can be found in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the process of construction, pouring and vibrating concrete on existing reinforced structures is a necessary process. This paper presents an automatic vibration position detecting method based on the feature extraction of 3D lidar point clouds. Compared with the image-based method, this method has better anti-interference performance to light with reduced computational consumption. First, lidar scans are used to capture multiple frames of local steel bar point clouds. Then, the clouds are stitched by Normal Distribution Transform (NDT) for preliminary matching and Iterative Closest Point (ICP) for fine-matching. The Graph-Based Optimization (g2o) method further refines the precision of the 3D registration. Afterwards, the 3D point clouds are projected into a 2D image. Finally, the locations of concrete vibration points and concrete casting points are discerned through point cloud and image processing technologies. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed automatic method outperforms ICP and NDT algorithms, reducing the mean square error (MSE) by 11.5% and 11.37%, respectively. The maximum discrepancies in identifying concrete vibration points and concrete casting points are 0.059 ± 0.031 m and 0.089 ± 0.0493 m, respectively, fulfilling the requirement for concrete vibration detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Breast ptosis may occur with increasing age, after pregnancy, after breastfeeding, or after weight loss. Understanding the vascular structure of the breast and nipple-areolar complex has guided the reshaping of the breast and thus paved the way for the emergence of different techniques. This study aimed to evaluate the results of tunneled glandular flaps used to increase projection in patients undergoing breast lift surgery. Methods: Patients who underwent breast lift and breast reduction between January 2020 and January 2022 were examined through their files and included in the study. Deepithelialization of the superomedial pedicle was performed. A tunnel was created under the pedicle. A medial or lateral based glandular flap was prepared from the inferir. The prepared glandular flap was passed through the tunnel and fixed to the pectoral muscle. Results: A total of 32 patients were included in the study. The average age of the patients was 44.31. Thirteen patients were smokers. Diabetes mellitus was present in 5 patients. To increase projection, medial glandular flap was used in 20 patients and lateral glandular flap was used in 12 patients. The average amount of tissue excised from the patients was 785.31 g. The average follow-up period was 14 months. Conclusions: Tunneled glandular flaps prepared on a lateral or medial basis will be useful in increasing the projection in breast lift surgery. Level of Evidence V: This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels. Methods: Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored. Results: In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p < 0.05), and ASMR and ASDR were significantly negatively correlated with SDI (p < 0.001). High BMI is a risk factor affecting the mortality rate and DALYs of UC in both China and globally, with the increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI being greater in China than globally. Conclusion: The incidence and prevalence burden of UC among Chinese and global women have shown an increasing trend over the past 32 years, while the mortality and DALYs have decreased. The projected burden of UC in China is anticipated to continue rising at a higher rate than the global level over the next 15 years. Given the large population in China, the government needs to strengthen screening and prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of UC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a unified model for layered rotating shallow‐water (RSW) and quasi‐geostrophic (QG) equations, based on the intrinsic relationship between these two sets of equations. We propose a novel formulation of the QG equations as a projection of the RSW equations. This formulation uses the same prognostic variables as RSW, namely velocity and layer thickness, thereby restoring the proximity of these two sets of equations. It provides direct access to the ageostrophic velocities embedded within the geostrophic velocities resolved by the QG equations. This approach facilitates the study of differences between QG and RSW using a consistent numerical discretization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this formulation through examples including vortex shear instability, double‐gyre circulation, and a simplified North Atlantic configuration. Plain Language Summary: In this paper, we present a straightforward way to connect two important sets of ocean equations: the layered rotating shallow‐water (RSW) equations and the quasi‐geostrophic (QG) equations. We consider a unified method to formulate the QG equations as a projection of the RSW equations. This method uses the same variables as the RSW equations, making it easier to understand how these two sets of equations relate to each other. Our approach also provides direct access to important velocity information that is usually hidden in the QG equations. This allows us to study the differences between the QG and RSW equations using the same numerical techniques. We show the benefits of our model with two examples: a vortex shear instability and a double‐gyre configuration. This work provides a useful tool for the understanding of ocean dynamics. Developing a unified numerical framework for nested models can greatly simplify oceanographic modeling and enhance accuracy. Key Points: Introduces QG equations as a projection of rotating shallow‐water (RSW) equations using the same prognostic variablesAllows consistent nested numerical methods for both QG and RSW equationsSuccessfully tested on vortex shear instability, double‐gyre circulation, and a simplified North Atlantic configuration [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections' (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 models' performance in simulating extreme climate indices across China and its eight subregions for the period 2081–2100 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The models effectively reproduce the spatial patterns of extreme high temperatures, especially in northern China. They show enhanced capabilities in accurately simulating the maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) and the number of high temperature days (T35). They improve the cold bias of the TXx index in Northwest China and warm bias in South China. In terms of precipitation, the models demonstrate strong performance, evidenced by significant spatial correlations in total wet day precipitation (PTOT) simulations. They reduce the biases of PTOT and simple daily intensity (SDII) compared to CMIP6 models. Regionally, they enhance PTOT accuracy along southern coasts and in Yunnan, better captures very heavy precipitation days (R20) in the Southwest region, max 5-day precipitation (RX5D) in North China and Southwest region, and SDII in the Northeast region and Yunnan. Under SSP5-8.5 scenario, significant impacts include increased TXx in Northwest China, more heatwave days in Southwest China, and more T35 in South China. Extreme precipitation will become more frequent in South and East China, with the greatest intensity increases in Southwest China (SWC1). North China will see fewest consecutive dry days (CDD) indices, while consecutive wet days (CWD) will prominently rise in SWC1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

National responses should be improved and accelerated to meet the target of ending the Acquired ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic by 2030. In the Republic of Cyprus, Men who have Sex with Men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), accounting approximately for half of all annual HIV diagnoses. This study assesses the evolution of HIV incidence in MSM in Cyprus until 2030 using a model calibrated to Cypriot epidemiological data. Four scenarios were examined: status quo, two scenarios focusing on introducing Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP), and a 90% HIV incidence reduction scenario. Reaching only the 95-95-95 HIV cascade of care targets among MSM would reduce HIV incidence by 48.6% by 2030 compared to 2015. Initiating a PrEP intervention only for high risk MSM would cause a modest further reduction in HIV incidence. To meet the 90% reduction target, PrEP should be expanded to both high and medium risk MSM and, after 2025, behavioral interventions should be implemented so as high-risk MSM gradually move to the medium-risk category. Cyprus will not reach the HIV incidence reduction target by 2030 unless PrEP is gradually promoted and delivered to all high and medium risk MSM along with awareness and behavioral interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This cross-sectional study explores the phrase jag tänker 'I think/cogitate' in Swedish talk-in-interaction and compares it with two similar phrases, jag tycker 'I think/find' and jag tror 'I think/believe/guess'. It consists of a quantitative overview of the three phrases and a qualitative, interactionally informed analysis of jag tänker in task-based group conversations with L1 and L2 speakers of Swedish. The results show that jag tänker has a stance-taking function in L1 interactions and projects more talk, which typically accounts for the reasoning behind the point the speaker is making. However, the L2 speakers do not use jag tänker as a stance-taking phrase; instead, they may deploy jag tror or jag tycker to project turns that accomplish similar actions to those that the L1 speakers accomplish with jag tänker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Appropriately incorporating other perspectives in an academic text is a challenge for second language learners and their incorporating practices in oral academic discourse are under-researched. Drawing on the account of heterogloss by Martin and his associates (e.g. Martin & Rose, 2007; Martin & White, 2005), this study investigated the heteroglossic practices in 81 oral presentations by the undergraduates enrolled in a 16-week course on English for Academic Purposes (EAP) in China. Textual analysis reveals the learners’ insufficient understanding of legitimate evidence and reporting verbs, overreliance on the high value modal verb (i.e. should) in presenting a proposal, and inappropriate sourcing for generating a concession in academic discourse. Based on the findings, a triadic model concerning heteroglossic practices in learners’ academic discourse is proposed, and pedagogical implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes two new classes of nonparametric tests for the correct specification of linear spatial autoregressive models based on the "integrated conditional moment" approach. Our test statistics are constructed as continuous functionals of a residual marked empirical process as well as its projected version. We derive asymptotic properties of the test statistics under the null hypothesis, the alternative hypothesis, and a sequence of local alternatives. The proposed tests do not involve the selection of tuning parameters such as bandwidths and are able to detect a broad class of local alternatives converging to the null at the parametric rate n − 1 / 2 , with n being the sample size. We also propose a multiplier bootstrap procedure that is computationally simple to approximate the critical values. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate that our tests have a reasonable size and satisfactory power for different types of data-generating processes. Finally, an empirical analysis of growth convergence is carried out to demonstrate the usefulness of the tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce a projection-based test for assessing logistic regression models using the empirical residual marked empirical process and suggest a model-based bootstrap procedure to calculate critical values. We comprehensively compare this test and Stute and Zhu’s test with several commonly used goodness-of-fit (GoF) tests: the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, modified Hosmer–Lemeshow test, Osius–Rojek test, and Stukel test for logistic regression models in terms of type I error control and power performance in small ( n = 50 ), moderate ( n = 100 ), and large ( n = 500 ) sample sizes. We assess the power performance for two commonly encountered situations: nonlinear and interaction departures from the null hypothesis. All tests except the modified Hosmer–Lemeshow test and Osius–Rojek test have the correct size in all sample sizes. The power performance of the projection based test consistently outperforms its competitors. We apply these tests to analyze an AIDS dataset and a cancer dataset. For the former, all tests except the projection-based test do not reject a simple linear function in the logit, which has been illustrated to be deficient in the literature. For the latter dataset, the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, modified Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and Osius–Rojek test fail to detect the quadratic form in the logit, which was detected by the Stukel test, Stute and Zhu’s test, and the projection-based test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Network analysis has become a crucial tool in genetic research, enabling the exploration of associations between genes and diseases. Its utility extends beyond genetics to include the assessment of environmental factors. Unipartite network analysis is commonly used in genomics to visualize initial insights and relationships among variables. Syndromic diseases, such as metabolic syndrome, are characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of various signs, symptoms, and clinicopathological features. Metabolic syndrome encompasses hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and dyslipidemia, and both genetic and environmental factors contribute to its development. Given that relevant data often consist of distinct sets of variables, a more intuitive visualization method is needed. This study applied multipartite network analysis as an effective method to understand the associations among genetic, environmental, and disease components in syndromic diseases. We considered three distinct variable sets: genetic factors, environmental factors, and disease components. The process involved projecting a tripartite network onto a two-mode bipartite network and then simplifying it into a one-mode network. This approach facilitated the visualization of relationships among factors across different sets and within individual sets. To transition from multipartite to unipartite networks, we suggest both sequential and concurrent projection methods. Data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project were utilized, including 352,228 SNPs from 8840 individuals, alongside information on environmental factors such as lifestyle, dietary, and socioeconomic factors. The single-SNP analysis step filtered SNPs, supplemented by reference SNPs reported in a genome-wide association study catalog. The resulting network patterns differed significantly by sex: demographic factors and fat intake were crucial for women, while alcohol consumption was central for men. Indirect relationships were identified through projected bipartite networks, revealing that SNPs such as rs4244457, rs2156552, and rs10899345 had lifestyle interactions on metabolic components. Our approach offers several advantages: it simplifies the visualization of complex relationships among different datasets, identifies environmental interactions, and provides insights into SNP clusters sharing common environmental factors and metabolic components. This framework provides a comprehensive approach to elucidate the mechanisms underlying complex diseases like metabolic syndrome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We are concerned in this paper with the convergence analysis of the primal-dual splitting (PDS) and the split Douglas-Rachford (SDR) algorithms for monotone inclusions by using an operator-oriented approach. We shall show that both PDS and SDR algorithms can be driven by a (firmly) nonexpansive mapping in a product Hilbert space. We are then able to apply the Krasnoselskii-Mann and Halpern fixed point algorithms to PDS and SDR to get weakly and strongly convergent algorithms for finding solutions of the primal and dual monotone inclusions. Moreover, an additional projection technique is used to derive strong convergence of a modified SDR algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of pedestrian bridges is often ineffective as pedestrians tend to prefer crossing directly on the roadway, even though heavy traffic conditions increase the risk of accidents. This lowers the safety level of crossers and causes traffic problems. This study aims to evaluate the efficient use of pedestrian bridges and determine public perceptions of road crossing facilities. The research was conducted using geometric assessment and road performance evaluation methods that refer to the 2023 Indonesian Road Capacity Guidelines. In addition, crossing times were analyzed based on the traffic TCT distribution histogram, as well as pedestrian perceptions of crossing facilities. The evaluation results show that the effectiveness of road services falls into category A. Based on pedestrian perceptions, 60% of respondents prefer to cross directly on the roadway, with an average TCT of 1.2 m/sec. From the results of the CSI analysis, the level of respondents' satisfaction with the condition of the pedestrian bridge is 71.373%. Based on the results of the study, the use of pedestrian bridges will be effective in the next 15 years. Recommendations proposed to increase the effectiveness of the use of pedestrian bridges and the level of pedestrian safety is the use of guardrails. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Myocardial infarction (MI) is a cardiovascular disease caused by necrosis of the myocardium, which places a heavy burden on patients. In France, the proportion of daily smokers remains high, reaching at 25.5% in 2020. We evaluated the impact of smoking reduction scenarios on the projection of MI prevalence, mean age of incident cases and number of MI prevented cases until 2035. Methods and Results: The French government has introduced smoking cessation policies that have led to an annual decrease in smoking prevalence. Based on this annual decline, we implemented three scenarios (SC) simulating an annual decrease in the proportion of smokers aged over 35 (SC1: 1%, ie, natural evolution without intervention, SC2: 2%, SC3: 9.87%) and a fourth scenario (SC4) in which there is a complete discontinuation of smoking from 2024 onwards using MI hospitalization and demographic data, estimations for the proportion of daily smokers between 35 and 95 years and multi-state models. Between 2023 and 2035, MI prevalence increased from 3.18% to 4.23% in males and from 1.00% to 1.46% in females under SC1. MI prevalence was equal to 4.21%, 4.06%, and 3.82% in males and 1.45%, 1.40%, and 1.34% in females in 2035 according to SC2, SC3, and SC4, respectively. Compared with SC1, 0.68% MI cases would be prevented with SC2, 4.52% with SC3 and 10.34% with SC4, with almost half of cases being prevented before 65 years of age. The increase in the mean age of MI incident cases ranged from 3 to 4 years among males and from 1 to 2 years among females. Conclusion: While reducing tobacco use could substantially reduce the number of MI cases prevented, its prevalence would continue to increase due to the ageing population. An integrated prevention strategy that includes the leading cardiovascular risk factors should more efficiently reduce the future burden of MI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strategy production in intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making is influenced by various factors. More realistic data representations are needed to portray ambiguity under increasingly complex decision-making contexts. Firstly, this study proposes a new approach for ranking independent trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers based on the risk attitudes of decision-makers. The proposed ranking approach incorporates the decision-makers' risk preferences and considers all possible values in the feasible domain. After that, a novel similarity measure between two independent trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers is presented based on the three-segment projection. The constructed similarity measure uses the image structure of the data to reflect the variation of vagueness and then also combines deviation to achieve optimization. Moreover, this study improves the VIKOR method under the independent trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment (V-ITIFE) to solve the multi-attribute decision-making problems. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the V-ITIFE method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows the light effects and geometric alignments created by the sunlight passing through the stained glasses of the eastern rose window in Mallorca Cathedral and projecting on the inner side of the cathedral's main façade and on the cathedral's floor. As well as providing more accurate information about these already known light effects, this paper makes use of laser scanning techniques and astronomical and geographical concepts in order to graphically display other novel effects which occur in coincidence with certain religious festivities throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to assess the ability of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 4.7.1 to reproduce historical monthly mean temperatures and precipitation in different physical geographical conditions of Georgia. RegCM4.7.1 simulation has been done at 12 km resolution over the territory of Georgia from 1985 to 2014, with the hourly ERA5 high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as boundary conditions. Standard deviation is used to evaluate the model's performance against Georgia's meteorological station data. This metric helps quantify the agreement between model outputs and observed data. Conducting historical runs and validating the model against observed data contributes to understanding how regional climate models perform in regions with diverse geographical features and is crucial for ensuring the reliability of future climate projections. A group of weather stations with the best data modeling results in all months of the year when the difference between the actual and model data does not exceed the standard deviation value is Kutaisi, Gori, Sagarejo, Tbilisi, and Tsalka for air temperature and Akhalkalaki, Akhaltsikhe, Dedoplistskaro, Gori, Sagarejo, Tbilisi, Telavi, and Tianeti for precipitation. The modeling results are generally satisfactory, indicating that the model can be used effectively for future climate projections in Georgia. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers working on climate change adaptation in Georgia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we focus on some split inverse problems, namely the split equality variational inequalities and common fixed point problems, and combine various operator theory techniques to establish minimum-norm strong convergence for our proposed method. We present two strong convergent results with (and without) reference to the monotonicity property of the cost operators. Our convergence analyses assume very mild conditions and thus generalize and extend recent related results in the literature. Furthermore, several numerical examples illustrate the practical potentials and advantages of our proposed algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Objective Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels. Methods Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored. Results In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p

The global burden of neck pain has persisted at a relatively elevated level from 1990 to 2019, with projections indicating a continuing upward trend. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 of neck pain burden, focusing on age-standardized incidence rates, age-standardized prevalence rates, and age-standardized years lived with disability (YLDs) rates at the global, regional, and national levels. The age–period–cohort analysis was used to estimate the effects of age (5-99 years), period (1990-2019), and cohort (1893-2012) at the global, regional, and national levels. Future projections for the global burden of neck pain from 2020 to 2044 were estimated using the nordpred age–period–cohort model. From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence, prevalence cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain have increased by 71.89%, 98.21%, and 78.17%, respectively. The joinpoint analysis indicated significant shifts in the global trends of age-standardized neck pain burden, which varied across regions and nations. The age–period–cohort model indicated that the neck pain burden was predominantly concentrated in middle-aged and older age, with period and cohort effects showing minimal variation from 1990 to 2019. Compared with 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain were projected to increase by 134%, 142%, and 140% by 2044. The global burden of neck pain has persisted at a relatively elevated level from 1990 to 2019, with projections indicating a continuing upward trend. Future research is urgently needed to better understand the predictors and clinical course of neck pain and to enhance prevention and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A considerable increase in life expectancy since the mid-fifties has slightly shifted the age structure of the population to the older age group as compared to earlier in India. Consequently, there is a growing demand for projections of the distribution of household types, sizes, and living arrangements of the older adults for socioeconomic planning, environment, development, business and market research, and policy and scholarly analysis in the country. This study attempts to highlight the prospective living arrangement patterns of the older adults in the country at the national and sub-national levels. The purpose of this study was to apply the net transition probability Markov chain simulation model and the Monte Carlo simulation model to project the different living arrangements of the Indian older adults from the year 2025 to 2050. The findings show a substantial increase in the proportion of the older adults living with a spouse only; the proportion of the older adults living alone would also rise substantially in the future years. In contrast, the proportion of the older adults living in three-generation households is projected to experience a steady decline from 2025 to 2050. Demographically advanced states like Tamil Nadu and Telangana are projected to have the highest proportion of older adults living alone. Among the northeastern states, Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim are projected to take the lead in this regard. Meghalaya, also a northeastern state, is projected to have the highest proportion of the older adults living with spouses only, whereas in Assam, the number of the older adults living in two-generation and three-generation households are projected to undergo the highest decline in the near future. From a methodological perspective, this study shows that the net transition probability Monte Carlo simulation model gives better estimates than the Markov chain simulation model. Given the ongoing transformation of India's demographic landscape, it is imperative for policymakers, researchers, and institutions to adapt their strategies to ensure the well-being and quality of life of the older adults. The insights and projections presented in this study serve as a valuable resource for guiding future initiatives and interventions in this context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we show that native speakers spontaneously divide the complex meaning of a new word into a presuppositional component and an assertive component. These results argue for the existence of a productive triggering algorithm for presuppositions, one that is not based on alternative lexical items nor on contextual salience. On a methodological level, the proposed learning paradigm can be used to test further theories concerned with the interaction of lexical properties and conceptual biases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Network analysis has become a crucial tool in genetic research, enabling the exploration of associations between genes and diseases. Its utility extends beyond genetics to include the assessment of environmental factors. Unipartite network analysis is commonly used in genomics to visualize initial insights and relationships among variables. Syndromic diseases, such as metabolic syndrome, are characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of various signs, symptoms, and clinicopathological features. Metabolic syndrome encompasses hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and dyslipidemia, and both genetic and environmental factors contribute to its development. Given that relevant data often consist of distinct sets of variables, a more intuitive visualization method is needed. This study applied multipartite network analysis as an effective method to understand the associations among genetic, environmental, and disease components in syndromic diseases. We considered three distinct variable sets: genetic factors, environmental factors, and disease components. The process involved projecting a tripartite network onto a two-mode bipartite network and then simplifying it into a one-mode network. This approach facilitated the visualization of relationships among factors across different sets and within individual sets. To transition from multipartite to unipartite networks, we suggest both sequential and concurrent projection methods. Data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project were utilized, including 352,228 SNPs from 8840 individuals, alongside information on environmental factors such as lifestyle, dietary, and socioeconomic factors. The single-SNP analysis step filtered SNPs, supplemented by reference SNPs reported in a genome-wide association study catalog. The resulting network patterns differed significantly by sex: demographic factors and fat intake were crucial for women, while alcohol consumption was central for men. Indirect relationships were identified through projected bipartite networks, revealing that SNPs such as rs4244457, rs2156552, and rs10899345 had lifestyle interactions on metabolic components. Our approach offers several advantages: it simplifies the visualization of complex relationships among different datasets, identifies environmental interactions, and provides insights into SNP clusters sharing common environmental factors and metabolic components. This framework provides a comprehensive approach to elucidate the mechanisms underlying complex diseases like metabolic syndrome.

Abstract Background The aim is to estimate age- and sex-specific direct medical costs related to diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. Methods Based on nationwide representative epidemiological routine data from 2010 from the statutory health insurance in Germany (almost 80% of the population’s insurance) we projected age- and sex-specific healthcare expenses for type 1 and 2 diabetes considering future demographic, disease-specific and cost trends. We combine per capita healthcare cost data (obtained from aggregated claims data from an almost 7% random sample of all German people with statutory health insurance) together with the demographic structure of the German population (obtained from the Federal Statictical Office), diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality. Direct per capita costs, total annual costs, cost ratios for people with versus without diabetes and attributable costs were estimated. The source code for running the analysis is publicly available in the open-access repository Zenodo. Results In 2010, total healthcare costs amounted to more than €1 billion for type 1 and €28 billion for type 2 diabetes. Depending on the scenario, total annual expenses were projected to rise remarkably until 2040 compared to 2010, by 1–281% for type 1 (€1 to €4 billion) and by 8–364% for type 2 diabetes (€30 to €131 billion). In a relatively probable scenario total costs amount to about €2 and €79 billion for type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2040, respectively. Depending on annual cost growth (1% p.a. as realistic scenario vs. 5% p.a. as very extreme setting), we estimated annual per capita costs of €6,581 to €12,057 for type 1 and €5,245 to €8,999 for type 2 diabetes in 2040. Conclusions Diabetes imposes a large economic burden on Germany which is projected to increase substantially until 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence and cost growth are main drivers of this increase. This highlight the need for urgent action to prepare for the potential development and mitigate its consequences.

Abstract Background Smoking is the major risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. We investigated the feasibility of projecting TBL cancer incidence using smoking incidence rates by incorporating a range of latent periods from the main risk factor exposure to TBL cancer diagnosis. Methods In this ecological study, we extracted data on TBL cancer incidence rates in Iran from 1990 to 2018 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We also collected data on Iranian cigarette smoking patterns over the past 40 years through a literature review. The weighted average smoking incidence was calculated using a fixed-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. Using these data, the five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was projected through time series modeling with IT Service Management (ITSM) 2000 software. A second model was developed based on cigarette smoking incidence using linear regression with SPSS (version 22), incorporating different latent periods. The results of these two models were compared to determine the best latent periods. Results An increasing trend in TBL cancer incidence was observed from 2019 to 2023 (first model: 10.30 [95% CI: 9.62, 10.99] to 11.42 [95% CI: 10.85, 11.99] per 100,000 people). In the second model, the most accurate prediction was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years, with the best prediction using a 17-year latent period (10.13 to 11.40 per 100,000 people) and the smallest mean difference of 0.08 (0.84%) per 100,000 people using the standard forecasting model (the ARIMA model). Conclusion Projecting an increase in TBL cancer incidence rates in the future, an optimal latent period of 17 to 20 years between exposure to cigarette smoke and TBL cancer incidence has implications for macrolevel preventive health policymaking to help reduce the burden of TBL cancer in upcoming years.

To prepare for the heavy rainfall resulting from future climate change in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River， this paper analyzed daily precipitation data from 687 meteorological stations in the region between 1990 and 2014， as well as simulation results from 24 global climate models （GCMs） provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 （CMIP6）.The spatio-temporal characteristics and uncertainties of the mean annual rainstorm volume， rainstorm days and rainstorm intensity in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River during 2021 -2099 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways （SSPs） scenarios are studied.The results show： （1） Compared to the reference period of 1995 -2014， the mean annual volume， days and intensity of rainstorm in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are projected to increase and strengthen during the whole projection period of 2021 -2099 and the end of the 21st century （2080 -2099） under the SSP1-2.6， SSP2-4.5， and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The largest increase is observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The predicted direction is consistent and the certainty of the projection among models increases with higher emissions.The distribution of rainstorm volume， days and intensity during 2021 -2099 is similar under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios， but differs from that of the SSP5-8.5 scenario.By the end of the 21st century， the distribution of volume and days of rainstorm is similar under the three scenarios.However， the distribution of rainstorm intensity under the SSP5-8.5 scenario differs from that under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios.（2） Relative to the reference period， the rainstorm volume in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River increases by 3.5 mm·（10a）-1， 5.4 mm·（10a）-1 and 14.7 mm·（10a）-1 under SSP1-2.6， SSP2-4.5， SSP5-8.5， respectively.The rainstorm days increases by 0.045 d·（10a）-1， 0.07 d·（10a）-1 and 0.18 d·（10a）-1 under the three scenarios， respectively.The rainstorm intensity increases by 0.37 mm·d-1·（10a）-1， 0.78 mm·d-1·（10a）-1 and 1.94 mm·d-1·（10a）-1 under the three scenarios， respectively.All of the trends pass the 99% confidence test and the same-sign rate test.The period with a high level of prediction certainty is expected to occur in the late 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.（3） The analysis of the three scenarios indicates an increasing trend in the volume， days and intensity of rainstorm throughout the whole prediction period.The region of southeast Tibet has experienced the highest growth rate in terms of volume and days of rainstorms.The region with the largest increasing trend of rainstorm intensity under the SSP1-2.6 scenario is in northern Sichuan， while under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios， it is in northern Yunnan.（4） During the early 21st century（2021 -2040）， there is no significant change in the volume， days or intensity of rainstorm in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River， as compared to the reference period， under the three scenarios.While during the middle（2041 -2060）and the end of the 21st century， the volume， days and intensity of rainstorm increase significantly under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.This effect is particularly pronounced during the end period of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario， as well as the consistency of predicted direction among modes is the highest.

Motivated by Nigeria’s persistent pursuit of rice self-sufficiency, this paper projects the country's future rice self-sufficiency levels. These projections could guide policy decisions in areas of the rice market that show potential for growth, aiding in the achievement of Nigeria's goal through improved planning strategies. Using time series data covering the period from 1980 to 2018, this study adopted an econometric technique to model Nigeria's rice market which was estimated using a dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results revealed that paddy producer price elasticity was 0.206 and had no influence on paddy area harvested. On the other hand, the national policy of rice credit guarantee scheme variable displayed a positive relationship with paddy area harvested. Lagged yield and lagged area harvested had positive influences on yield and area harvested, respectively. This could mean that paddy producers were motivated by previous year’s yield levels and area harvested. The demand own-price elasticity of rice was -0.321 and its cross-price elasticity was 0.193, with wheat revealed to be a substitute. The obtained elasticities were then used to make a ten-year projection. Results suggested that by 2028, increasing rice production relative to dwindling imports will boost rice self-sufficiency level to 71%. However, the average yearly rice self-sufficiency level was 53%, requiring 3.85 million Mt of rice imports. The projections revealed that Nigeria will not achieve rice self-sufficiency by 2028 unless intensive yield enhancing policy-supporting efforts are pursued.

This study used 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to analyze the mean and extreme projection precipitation during the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) season, i.e., June to September (JJAS). A continuous rise in precipitation and its associated unpredictability were predicted by global climate models using the CMIP6. The extreme values are estimated on the basis of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Four socioeconomic paths are used as SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 to understand the impact of low-emission to high-emission scenarios. In all the scenarios, it is seen that all the models predict a significant rise in JJAS mean and extreme precipitation. Moreover, a strong correlation is obtained between the historical (1995–2014) and near-emission future simulation (2021–2040), mid-emission future simulation (2041–2060), high-emission future simulations (2081–2100) of air temperature and precipitation. In extreme emission scenarios, ensemble mean of CMIP6 models shows an increasing amplitude in surface air temperature and precipitation over India in the near future (2021–2040), mid future (2041–2060) and the end of the century (2081–2100). The CMIP6 simulations mainly support the results of all models, but they also demonstrate improved robustness across models. HIGHLIGHTS Projection of mean and extreme precipitation over India using CMIP6 models during JJAS season.; A generalized extreme values distribution is utilized to estimate the climate extreme.; Four socioeconomic paths are used as SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 to understand the impact of low-emission to high-emission scenarios over precipitation.; A strong association is observed between surface air temperature and precipitation over India.; Extreme precipitation may rise up to 80% over India in the SSP585 scenario.;

As an augmented reality paradigm, spatial augmented reality (SAR) holds significant application value in assembly operations. However, in the current research, the camera is fixed with the projector, which results in the limited projection angle and poor flexibility. This makes it difficult to be applied in the assembly of cabin-type components in the aviation industry. In this paper, we present an externally-guided spatial augmented reality (EGSAR) system which allows the projector to move freely. First, the proposed system framework, especially the related transformation, is introduced. Under this framework, the implication has been simplified into pose measurement problem. Meanwhile, to track the moving projector, a dodecahedron transfer position target is designed. Due to the EGSAR being a combined system, then, we propose a calibration process for the target, which eliminates the manufacturing errors of the target. Based on the calibrated cameras, projector, and target, the pose measurement problem has been solved. The proposed EGSAR method is experimented in a factory-like scenario, where an operator performs assembly tasks under its guidance. The feasibility and accuracy of the prototype are verified. In conclusion, the proposed EGSAR framework improves the flexibility and can be a valid solution to extend the uses of the SAR system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spring consecutive rainfall events (CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models (GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6, indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The septocolumellar sutures are very helpful to obtain planned rotation and projection. The goal of this study is to revitalize the septocolumellar techniques described before and present an easy new classification for these sutures, and to present their multiple uses on the same patient as a new option for surgeons. Eighty patients were involved in this retrospective study. All the patients were females except one. A detailed preoperative preparation was performed on all patients by following the principles of precision profileplasty. In this study, five main types of septocolumellar sutures were used. Type 4 septocolumellar suture was used in 39 cases, type 3 in 33, type 2 in 22, type 1 in 5, and type 5 in 2 cases. In 21 cases, more than one suture was used. In conclusion, the new practical classification presented in this study gives the surgeon powerful tools to reshape the tip during surgery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geproci property is a recent development in the world of geometry. We call a set of points Z\subseteq \mathbb {P}_k^3 an (a,b)-geproci set (for GEneral PROjection is a Complete Intersection) if its projection from a general point P to a plane is a complete intersection of curves of degrees a\leq b. Nondegenerate examples known as grids have been known since 2011. Nondegenerate nongrids were first described in 2018, working in characteristic 0. Almost all of these new examples are of a special kind called half grids. In this paper, based partly on the author's thesis, we use a feature of geometry in positive characteristic to give new methods of producing geproci half grids and non-half grids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we articulate a pragmatic account of the projection behavior of three classes of non-anaphoric projective contents: the pre-states of change of state (CoS) predicates, the veridical entailments of factives, and the implication of satisfaction of selectional restrictions. Given evidence that the triggers of these implications are not anaphoric, hence do not impose presuppositional constraints on their local contexts, we argue that the projection behavior of these implications cannot be explained by the standard Karttunen/Heim/van der Sandt proposals. But we recognize that parallels between the projection behavior of these implications and the projection behavior of anaphorically-triggered implications must be explained. The current account offers a unified explanation of why the predicates in question give rise to projection at all; why projection of these implications is susceptible to contextual suppression; and why projection is systematically filtered in the standard Karttunen filtering environments, despite the absence of contextual constraints. We demonstrate that our account largely makes the same predictions for filtering of anaphoric and non-anaphoric presuppositions, and briefly support the claim that in the case of disjunction, filtering in the two cases is not fully parallel, as predicted by our account. We also briefly discuss how the well-documented variability in projection across predicates in the same semantic class can be understood within our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Demographic change will lead to an increase in age-associated cancers. The demand for primary treatment, especially oncologic therapies, is difficult to predict. This work is an attempt to project the demand for radiation therapy (RT) in 2030, taking into account demographic changes using prostate cancer (PC) as an example. Materials and methods: Using the GENESIS database of the Federal Statistical Office, we retrieved demographic population projections for 2030 and retrospective demographic surveys from 1999 to 2019. Additionally, we queried incidence rates for PC in the respective age groups of 50–54, 55–59, 60–64, 65–69, 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, and +85 years from 1999–2019 via the Federal Cancer Registry of the Robert Koch Institute. We used a regression method to determine the age-dependent correlation between the incidence of PC and the population size of the respective age group by combining the data from 1999 to 2019. This information was used to calculate the incidence rates in the age groups of the expected population for 2030 and the expected new cases of PC in 2030. Finally, we extrapolated the indications for the demand for RT based on data from the Report on Cancer Incidence in Germany from 2016. Results: Considering a population-dependent incidence rate, an increase in new cases of PC is expected. This increase is particularly evident in the age groups of 70–74 and 80–84 years. With regards to RT, the estimate indicates an overall increase of 27.4% in demand. There is also a shift in RT demands towards older patients, especially in the 80- to 84-year-old age group. Conclusion: We observe an age-associated increase in primary cases of PC. This is likely to result in an increased demand for RT. The exact demand cannot be predicted. However, trends can be estimated to plan for the demand. This, though, requires a good database from cancer registries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Since an increase in the occurrence of native vertebral osteomyelitis (VO) is expected and reliable projections are missing, it is urgent to provide a reliable forecast model and make it a part of future health care considerations. Methods: Comprehensive nationwide data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany were used to forecast total numbers and incidence rates (IR) of VO as a function of age and gender until 2040. Projections were done using autoregressive integrated moving average model on historical data from 2005 to 2019 in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2040. Results: The IR of VO is expected to increase from 12.4 in 2019 to 21.5 per 100,000 inhabitants [95% CI 20.9–22.1] in 2040. The highest increase is predicted in patients over 75 years of age for both men and women leading to a steep increase in absolute numbers, which is fourfold higher compared to patients younger than 75 years. While the IR per age group will not increase any further after 2035, the subsequent increase is due to a higher number of individuals aged 75 years or older. Conclusions: Our data suggest that increasing IR of VO will seriously challenge healthcare systems, particularly due to demographic change and increasing proportions of populations turning 75 years and older. With respect to globally fast aging populations, future health care policies need to address this burden by anticipating limitations in financial and human resources and developing high-level evidence-based guidelines for prevention and interdisciplinary treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent analytic-philosophical works in the field of situated cognition have proposed to conceptualize the self as deeply entwined with the environment, and even as constituted by it. A common move has been to characterize the self in narrative terms, and then to argue that the narrative self is partly constituted by narratives about the past that are scaffolded (shaped and maintained) by, or distributed over, a variety of objects that can rekindle episodic memories. While we are sympathetic to these approaches, here we propose a different strategy to situate the self—one which can be seen as complementing the narrative one, and which draws from concepts and ideas central to the phenomenological-existentialist tradition. We suggest, first, that the self has a sense of its past not just via narratives and episodic memories, but in virtue of being embodied and thus, importantly, sedimented (in other words, it has, or rather is, a body memory). Embodiment and sedimentation, in turn, always necessarily imply an environment or a situation, entailing that the self is also inherently situated. Second, we discuss the future-oriented dimension of selfhood, and argue that we understand ourselves as projected into the future, again not necessarily only narratively and reflectively, but also tacitly, in a bodily and inherently situated way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Data mining is vital in analyzing large volumes of data to extract functional patterns and knowledge hidden within the data. Data mining has practical applications in various scientific areas, such as social networks, healthcare, and finance. It is important to note that data mining also raises ethical concerns and privacy considerations. Organizations must handle data responsibly, ensuring compliance with legal and ethical guidelines. Privacy-Preserving Data Mining (PPDM) refers to conducting data mining tasks while protecting the privacy of sensitive data. PPDM techniques aim to strike a balance between privacy protection and data utility. By employing PPDM techniques, organizations can perform safe and private data analysis, protecting sensitive information while deriving valuable insights from the data. The current paper uses geometric transformation-based projection techniques such as perspective projection, isometric projection, cabinet projection, and cavalier projection to protect data privacy and improve data utility. The suggested technique's performance was assessed with the K-means clustering technique. The UCI repository's Bank Marketing dataset was used to verify the error rate of the proposed projection techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we introduce a large class of (so-called) conditional indicators, on a complete probability space with respect to a sub σ-algebra. A conditional indicator is a positive mapping, which is not necessary linear, but may share common features with the conditional expectation, such as the tower property or the projection property. Several characterizations are formulated. Beyond the definitions, we provide some non trivial examples that are used in finance and may inspire new developments in the theory of operators on Riesz spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The aim is to estimate age- and sex-specific direct medical costs related to diagnosed type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2010 and 2040. Methods: Based on nationwide representative epidemiological routine data from 2010 from the statutory health insurance in Germany (almost 80% of the population's insurance) we projected age- and sex-specific healthcare expenses for type 1 and 2 diabetes considering future demographic, disease-specific and cost trends. We combine per capita healthcare cost data (obtained from aggregated claims data from an almost 7% random sample of all German people with statutory health insurance) together with the demographic structure of the German population (obtained from the Federal Statictical Office), diabetes prevalence, incidence and mortality. Direct per capita costs, total annual costs, cost ratios for people with versus without diabetes and attributable costs were estimated. The source code for running the analysis is publicly available in the open-access repository Zenodo. Results: In 2010, total healthcare costs amounted to more than €1 billion for type 1 and €28 billion for type 2 diabetes. Depending on the scenario, total annual expenses were projected to rise remarkably until 2040 compared to 2010, by 1–281% for type 1 (€1 to €4 billion) and by 8–364% for type 2 diabetes (€30 to €131 billion). In a relatively probable scenario total costs amount to about €2 and €79 billion for type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2040, respectively. Depending on annual cost growth (1% p.a. as realistic scenario vs. 5% p.a. as very extreme setting), we estimated annual per capita costs of €6,581 to €12,057 for type 1 and €5,245 to €8,999 for type 2 diabetes in 2040. Conclusions: Diabetes imposes a large economic burden on Germany which is projected to increase substantially until 2040. Temporal trends in the incidence and cost growth are main drivers of this increase. This highlight the need for urgent action to prepare for the potential development and mitigate its consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Smoking is the major risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancers. We investigated the feasibility of projecting TBL cancer incidence using smoking incidence rates by incorporating a range of latent periods from the main risk factor exposure to TBL cancer diagnosis. Methods: In this ecological study, we extracted data on TBL cancer incidence rates in Iran from 1990 to 2018 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We also collected data on Iranian cigarette smoking patterns over the past 40 years through a literature review. The weighted average smoking incidence was calculated using a fixed-effects model with Comprehensive Meta-Analysis (CMA) software. Using these data, the five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was projected through time series modeling with IT Service Management (ITSM) 2000 software. A second model was developed based on cigarette smoking incidence using linear regression with SPSS (version 22), incorporating different latent periods. The results of these two models were compared to determine the best latent periods. Results: An increasing trend in TBL cancer incidence was observed from 2019 to 2023 (first model: 10.30 [95% CI: 9.62, 10.99] to 11.42 [95% CI: 10.85, 11.99] per 100,000 people). In the second model, the most accurate prediction was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years, with the best prediction using a 17-year latent period (10.13 to 11.40 per 100,000 people) and the smallest mean difference of 0.08 (0.84%) per 100,000 people using the standard forecasting model (the ARIMA model). Conclusion: Projecting an increase in TBL cancer incidence rates in the future, an optimal latent period of 17 to 20 years between exposure to cigarette smoke and TBL cancer incidence has implications for macrolevel preventive health policymaking to help reduce the burden of TBL cancer in upcoming years. Key messages: • The most accurate prediction of five-year TBL cancer incidence in Iran was obtained with latent periods of 17 to 20 years after initial exposure to cigarette smoke. • A more advanced model can potentially be leveraged to project the epidemiological indices of other non-communicable diseases that have a highly attributable risk factor, adequate information on previous trends, and a range of latent periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a prevalent malignancy within the digestive system, with diabetes recognized as one of its well-established risk factors. Methods: Data on PC mortality attributed to high fasting blood sugar were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 online database. To assess the temporal trends of PC burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for agestandardized death rates (ASDRs) between 1990 and 2019 were determined using a generalized linear model. Furthermore, a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model using the integrated nested Laplacian approximation algorithm was employed to project the disease burden over the next 20 years. Results: Globally, the crude death number of PC attributable to HFPG almost tripled (from 13,065.7 in 1990 to 48,358.5 in 2019) from 1990 to 2019, and the ASDR increased from 0.36/100,000 to 0.61/100,000 with an EAPC of 2.04 (95% CI 1.91-2.16). The population aged ≤70 years accounted for nearly 60% of total deaths in 2019 and experienced a more significant increase, with the death number increasing approximately fourfold and the ASDR increasing annually by 2.65%. In regions with different sociodemographic indexes (SDIs), the highest disease burden was observed in the high-SDI region, whereas more pronounced increasing trends in ASDR were observed in the low to middle-SDI, low-SDI, and middle-SDI regions. Additionally, a significantly negative association was found between EAPCs and ASDRs of PC attributable to HFPG from 1990 to 2019. Moreover, the BAPC model predicts that ASDR and age-standardized disabilityadjusted life-years (DALYs) rate for PC attributed to HFPG was projected to increase obviously for men and women from 2019 to 2040. Conclusions: The burden of PC attributed to HFPG has increased globally over the past three decades, with the elderly population and high-SDI regions carrying a relatively greater disease burden, but more adverse trends observed in low-SDI areas. Furthermore, the burden is projected to continue increasing over the next 20 years. Hence, more tailored prevention methodologies should be established to mitigate this increasing trend. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gansu Province is located in an ecologically fragile area, with complex climate conditions, high probability and wide range of drought. In order to better study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of drought in Gansu Province, it was divided into four cli- mate zones according to the climate type and geographical characteristics and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI- 3 and SPEI-12) at quarterly and annual scales for the next 76 years (2024-2099) were calculated. Under the four scenarios of SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585, Mann Kendall mutation test, spatial interpolation and other methods were used to estimate the temperature, precipitation, and drought evolution status of Gansu Province in the future 80 in the CMIP6 climate model. The main conclusion is as follows: In the CMIP6 model, the temperature and precipitation in different regions of Gansu Province in the future from 2024 to 2099 show an upward trend over time under different scenarios and the climate tendency rate of temperature and precipitation under different scenarios is from small to large as SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. Under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios in the CMIP6 model, Gansu Province will show the development trend of drought in spring, summer and autumn in the coming 2024 to 2099. The mutation years from humid to arid are concentrated between 2040 and 2060. In winter, there is a trend of wetting, with a sudden change from drought to humidification in the SSP121 scenario occurring in 2033, and other scenarios occurring between 2040 and 2060. The frequency of different types of drought is different between different scenarios. Light drought and extreme drought have the highest frequency under the SSP370 scenario, moderate drought has the highest frequency under the SSP245 scenario, and severe drought has the highest frequency under the SSP585 scenario. The frequency of different levels of drought in different climatic regions of Gansu Province under different climatic scenarios is from large to small of light drought, moderate drought, severe drought and extreme drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change continues to exert pressure on ocean ecosystems. The fisheries‐related responses, such as altered body growth, recruitment and spatial distribution of the targeted stock(s), have generally been reasonably well investigated. Nevertheless, there are still important knowledge gaps in how biophysical drivers impact stock productivity and thereby sustainable harvest levels. Considering this, we investigated 26 fish stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, a region characterized by accelerated climate change effects and a diverse set of fisheries. A novel, stepwise, Bayesian framework to quantify stock productivity was established to identify shared trends and project future patterns, aiming at determining essential baselines for adaptive fishery management in the face of climate change. Despite variation among large marine ecosystems and stocks, an overall declining trend in productivity over the past four decades was observed, especially in high‐latitude areas. These hindcast results were mainly attributed to higher temperatures posing negative effects on productivity, which was dependent on the stock's thermal preference. Contrastingly, the proxy for food availability – gross secondary production – exhibited less consistent impacts. In the forecast, the applied Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSPs) indicated that most stocks are likely to encounter adverse effects, with the worst cases expected to occur under SSP2‐4.5 in the 2050s, and under SSP5‐8.5 in the 2090s. Thus, this study generally not only supports earlier climate vulnerability assessments ('scorings') of experts but also provides evidence for revised directional effects under climate change, underlining the complexity of processes affecting stock productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave (HW) is vital for both natural systems and human populations. The Loess Plateau is located in a climate transition zone and is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is crucial to study HW in this region. Based on instrumental measurements, climate model data, atmospheric circulation data and HW metrics, this study comprehensively analyses past and future HW changes in the Loess Plateau and the influencing factors. From 1961 to 2019, the metrics for daytime heat wave(DHW) and nighttime heat wave(NHW) were as follows: duration (9.28/9.72 days), frequency (1.34/1.4 times, mean intensity (6.24/4.69 °C), maximum intensity (7.83/6.05 °C), and cumulative heat (44.45/32.63 °Cd). All metrics displayed an increasing trend (p < 0.05(NHW)). Geographically, the northern Loess Plateau exhibited the highest intensity and cumulative heat, whereas the southern region experienced longer HW. The solar flux index, western Pacific subtropical high area index, and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index were identified as the primary factors influencing HW in the Loess Plateau. By the end of the 21st century, both the duration and cumulative heat of HW are projected to rise significantly. NHW, in particular, will see extended durations and greater cumulative heat compared to DHW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]