Search

The aim of the study is to provide a comprehensive assessment of incidence and survival trends of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) by histological subtype across seven high income countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the United Kingdom). Data on invasive EOC diagnosed in women aged 15-99 years during 1995-2014 were obtained from 20 cancer registries. Age standardized incidence rates and average annual percentage change were calculated by subtype for all ages and age groups (15-64 and 65-99 years). Net survival (NS) was estimated by subtype, age group, and 5-year period using Pohar-Perme estimator. Our findings showed marked increase in serous carcinoma incidence was observed between 1995-2014 among women aged 65-99 years with average annual increase ranging between 2.2% and 5.8%. We documented a marked decrease in the incidence of adenocarcinoma 'not otherwise specified' with estimates ranging between 4.4% and 7.4% in women aged 15-64 years and between 2.0% and 3.7% among the older age group. Improved survival, combining all EOC subtypes, was observed for all ages combined over the 20-year study period in all countries with 5-year NS absolute percent change ranging between 5.0 in Canada and 12.6 in Denmark. Several factors such as changes in guidelines and advancement in diagnostic tools may potentially influence the observed shift in histological subtypes and temporal trends. Progress in clinical management and treatment over the past decades potentially plays a role in the observed improvements in EOC survival. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Purpose There has been an alarming increase in colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence among young adults aged Methods A population-based case–control study was conducted in Ontario, Canada during 2018–2019. EO-CRC cases aged 20–49 years (n = 175) were identified from the Ontario Cancer Registry; sex- and age group-matched controls (n = 253) were recruited through random digit dialing. Data on potential a priori risk factors were collected using a web-based self-reported questionnaire. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Results Family history of CRC in a first- or second-degree relative (OR 2.37; 95% CI 1.47–3.84), longer sedentary time (≥ 10 vs. Conclusion Modifiable factors, particularly sedentary behavior and unhealthy diet including sugary drink consumption, may be associated with EO-CRC risk. Our findings, if replicated, may help inform prevention strategies targeted at younger persons.

Modifiable lifestyle, environmental, and infectious risk factors associated with cancer impact both cancer incidence and mortality at the population level. Most studies estimating this burden focus on cancer incidence. However, because these risk factors are associated with cancers of disparate mortality rates, the burden associated with cancer incidence could differ from cancer mortality. Therefore, estimating the cancer mortality attributable to these risk factors provides additional insight into cancer prevention. Here, we estimated future cancer deaths and the number of avoidable deaths in Canada due to modifiable risk factors.The projected cancer mortality data came from OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool. These data were applied to the methodological framework that we previously used to estimate the population attributable risks and the potential impact fractions of modifiable risk factors on Canadian cancer incidence.We estimated that most cancer deaths will be attributed to tobacco smoking with an average of 27,900 deaths annually from 2024 to 2047. If Canada's current trends in excess body weight continue, cancer deaths attributable to excess body weight would double from 2786 deaths in 2024 to 5604 deaths in 2047, becoming the second leading modifiable cause of cancer death. Applying targets to reduce these risk factors, up to 34,600 cancer deaths could be prevented from 2024 to 2047.Our simulated results complement our previous findings on the cancer incidence burden since decreasing the overall burden of cancer will be accelerated through a combination of decreasing cancer incidence and improving survival outcomes through improved treatments.RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Les facteurs de risque modifiables associés au cancer (liés au mode de vie, à l’environnement, aux maladies infectieuses) ont des effets à la fois sur l’incidence du cancer et sur la mortalité par cancer à l’échelle de la population. La plupart des études qui estiment ce fardeau portent sur l’incidence du cancer. Cependant, comme les facteurs de risque susmentionnés sont associés à des cancers dont les taux de mortalité sont disparates, le fardeau associé à l’incidence du cancer pourrait différer de la mortalité par cancer. En conséquence, l’estimation de la mortalité par cancer imputable à ces facteurs de risque pourrait éclairer la prévention du cancer. Nous estimons ici les décès futurs par cancer et le nombre de décès évitables au Canada dus à des facteurs de risque modifiables. MéTHODE: Les données projetées sur la mortalité par cancer proviennent d’OncoSim, un outil de microsimulation en ligne. Elles ont été appliquées au cadre méthodologique que nous avions déjà utilisé pour estimer les risques attribuables dans la population et les fractions de l’incidence potentielle des facteurs de risque modifiables sur l’incidence canadienne du cancer. RéSULTATS: Selon nos estimations, entre 2024 et 2047, la plupart des décès par cancer seront imputés au tabagisme, qui causera en moyenne 27 900 décès par année. Si les tendances actuelles au Canada en matière de surpoids se maintiennent, les décès par cancer attribuables au surpoids doubleraient, passant de 2 786 décès en 2024 à 5 604 en 2047, et le surpoids deviendrait la deuxième cause modifiable de décès par cancer. En appliquant des cibles de réduction de ces facteurs de risque, jusqu’à 34 600 décès par cancer pourraient être évités entre 2024 et 2047. CONCLUSION: Les résultats de notre simulation confirment nos constatations antérieures sur le fardeau de l’incidence du cancer, car la diminution du fardeau global du cancer sera accélérée par une combinaison de la diminution de l’incidence du cancer et de l’amélioration des résultats de survie grâce à l’amélioration des traitements.

Survival from lung cancer remains low, yet is the most common cancer diagnosed worldwide. With survival contrasting between the main histological groupings, small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) and non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), it is important to assess the extent that geographical differences could be from varying proportions of cancers with unspecified histology across countries. Lung cancer cases diagnosed 2010-2014, followed until 31st December 2015 were provided by cancer registries from seven countries for the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project. Multiple imputation was used to reassign cases with unspecified histology into SCLC, NSCLC, other. One- and three-year age-standardised net survival were estimated by histology, sex, age group and country. 404,617 lung cancer cases were included, 47,533 (11.7%) and 262,040 (64.8%) were SCLC and NSCLC. The proportion of unspecified cases varied, from 11.2% (Denmark) to 29.0% (U.K). Following imputation with unspecified histology, survival variations remained: 1-year SCLC survival ranged from 28.0% (New Zealand) to 35.6% (Australia) NSCLC survival from 39.4% (U.K.) to 49.5% (Australia). The largest survival change following imputation was for 1-year NSCLC (4.9 percentage point decrease). Similar variations were observed for 3-year survival. The oldest age group had lowest survival and largest decline following imputation. International variations in SCLC and NSCLC survival are only partially attributable to differences in the distribution of unspecified histology. While it is important that registries and clinicians aim to improve completeness in classifying cancers, it is likely that other factors play a larger role, including underlying risk factors, stage, comorbidity and care management which warrants investigation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

BACKGROUND Leukaemias comprise a heterogenous group of haematological malignancies. In CONCORD-3, we analysed data for children (aged 0-14 years) and adults (aged 15-99 years) diagnosed with a haematological malignancy during 2000-14 in 61 countries. Here, we aimed to examine worldwide trends in survival from leukaemia, by age and morphology, in young patients (aged 0-24 years). METHODS We analysed data from 258 population-based cancer registries in 61 countries participating in CONCORD-3 that submitted data on patients diagnosed with leukaemia. We grouped patients by age as children (0-14 years), adolescents (15-19 years), and young adults (20-24 years). We categorised leukaemia subtypes according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3), updated with International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third edition (ICD-O-3) codes. We estimated 5-year net survival by age and morphology, with 95% CIs, using the non-parametric Pohar-Perme estimator. To control for background mortality, we used life tables by country or region, single year of age, single calendar year and sex, and, where possible, by race or ethnicity. All-age survival estimates were standardised to the marginal distribution of young people with leukaemia included in the analysis. FINDINGS 164 563 young people were included in this analysis: 121 328 (73·7%) children, 22 963 (14·0%) adolescents, and 20 272 (12·3%) young adults. In 2010-14, the most common subtypes were lymphoid leukaemia (28 205 [68·2%] patients) and acute myeloid leukaemia (7863 [19·0%] patients). Age-standardised 5-year net survival in children, adolescents, and young adults for all leukaemias combined during 2010-14 varied widely, ranging from 46% in Mexico to more than 85% in Canada, Cyprus, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, and Australia. Individuals with lymphoid leukaemia had better age-standardised survival (from 43% in Ecuador to ≥80% in parts of Europe, North America, Oceania, and Asia) than those with acute myeloid leukaemia (from 32% in Peru to ≥70% in most high-income countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania). Throughout 2000-14, survival from all leukaemias combined remained consistently higher for children than adolescents and young adults, and minimal improvement was seen for adolescents and young adults in most countries. INTERPRETATION This study offers the first worldwide picture of population-based survival from leukaemia in children, adolescents, and young adults. Adolescents and young adults diagnosed with leukaemia continue to have lower survival than children. Trends in survival from leukaemia for adolescents and young adults are important indicators of the quality of cancer management in this age group. FUNDING Children with Cancer UK, the Institut National du Cancer, La Ligue Contre le Cancer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Swiss Re, Swiss Cancer Research foundation, Swiss Cancer League, Rossy Family Foundation, US National Cancer Institute, and the American Cancer Society.

IntroductionLung cancer has a poor prognosis that varies internationally when assessed by the two major histological subgroups (non-small cell (NSCLC) and small cell (SCLC)).Method236 114 NSCLC and 43 167 SCLC cases diagnosed during 2010–2014 in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK were included in the analyses. One-year and 3-year age-standardised net survival (NS) was estimated by sex, histological type, stage and country.ResultsOne-year and 3-year NS was consistently higher for Canada and Norway, and lower for the UK, New Zealand and Ireland, irrespective of stage at diagnosis. Three-year NS for NSCLC ranged from 19.7% for the UK to 27.1% for Canada for men and was consistently higher for women (25.3% in the UK; 35.0% in Canada) partly because men were diagnosed at more advanced stages. International differences in survival for NSCLC were largest for regional stage and smallest at the advanced stage. For SCLC, 3-year NS also showed a clear female advantage with the highest being for Canada (13.8% for women; 9.1% for men) and Norway (12.8% for women; 9.7% for men).ConclusionDistribution of stage at diagnosis among lung cancer cases differed by sex, histological subtype and country, which may partly explain observed survival differences. Yet, survival differences were also observed within stages, suggesting that quality of treatment, healthcare system factors and prevalence of comorbid conditions may also influence survival. Other possible explanations include differences in data collection practice, as well as differences in histological verification, staging and coding across jurisdictions.

ObjectivesAs part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP) SURVMARK-2 project, we provide the most recent estimates of colon and rectal cancer survival in seven high-income countries by age and stage at diagnosis.MethodsData from 386 870 patients diagnosed during 2010–2014 from 19 cancer registries in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK) were analysed. 1-year and 5-year net survival from colon and rectal cancer were estimated by stage at diagnosis, age and country,Results(One1-year) and 5-year net survival varied between (77.1% and 87.5%) 59.1% and 70.9% and (84.8% and 90.0%) 61.6% and 70.9% for colon and rectal cancer, respectively. Survival was consistently higher in Australia, Canada and Norway, with smaller proportions of patients with metastatic disease in Canada and Australia. International differences in (1-year) and 5-year survival were most pronounced for regional and distant colon cancer ranging between (86.0% and 94.1%) 62.5% and 77.5% and (40.7% and 56.4%) 8.0% and 17.3%, respectively. Similar patterns were observed for rectal cancer. Stage distribution of colon and rectal cancers by age varied across countries with marked survival differences for patients with metastatic disease and diagnosed at older ages (irrespective of stage).ConclusionsSurvival disparities for colon and rectal cancer across high-income countries are likely explained by earlier diagnosis in some countries and differences in treatment for regional and distant disease, as well as older age at diagnosis. Differences in cancer registration practice and different staging systems across countries may have impacted the comparisons.

OBJECTIVE: The study aims to evaluate the differences in ovarian cancer survival by age and stage at diagnosis within and across seven high-income countries.METHODS: We analyzed data from 58,161 women diagnosed with ovarian cancer during 2010-2014, followed until 31 December 2015, from 21 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and United Kingdom. Comparisons of 1-year and 3-year age- and stage-specific net survival (NS) between countries were performed using the period analysis approach.RESULTS: Minor variation in the stage distribution was observed between countries, with most women being diagnosed with 'distant' stage (ranging between 64% in Canada and 71% in Norway). The 3-year all-ages NS ranged from 45 to 57% with Australia (56%) and Norway (57%) demonstrating the highest survival. The proportion of women with 'distant' stage was highest for those aged 65-74 and 75-99 years and varied markedly between countries (range:72-80% and 77-87%, respectively). The oldest age group had the lowest 3-year age-specific survival (20-34%), and women aged 65-74 exhibited the widest variation across countries (3-year NS range: 40-60%). Differences in survival between countries were particularly stark for the oldest age group with 'distant' stage (3-year NS range: 12% in Ireland to 24% in Norway).CONCLUSIONS: International variations in ovarian cancer survival by stage exist with the largest differences observed in the oldest age group with advanced disease. This finding endorses further research investigating international differences in access to and quality of treatment, and prevalence of comorbid conditions particularly in older women with advanced disease.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of pancreatic cancer has steadily increased, while the prognosis after pancreatic cancer diagnosis remains poor. This study aims to compare the stage- and age-specific pancreatic cancer net survival (NS) for seven high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and United Kingdom. METHODS: The study included over 35,000 pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed during 2012–2014, followed through 31 December 2015. The stage- and age-specific NS were calculated using the Pohar-Perme estimator. RESULTS: Pancreatic cancer survival estimates were low across all 7 countries, with 1-year NS ranging from 21.1% in New Zealand to 30.9% in Australia, and 3-year NS from 6.6% in the UK to 10.9% in Australia. Most pancreatic cancers were diagnosed with distant stage, ranging from 53.9% in Ireland to 83.3% in New Zealand. While survival differences were evident between countries across all stage categories at one year after diagnosis, this survival advantage diminished, particularly in cases with distant stage. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated the importance of stage and age at diagnosis in pancreatic cancer survival. Although progress has been made in improving pancreatic cancer prognosis, the disease is highly fatal and will remain so without major breakthroughs in the early diagnosis and management.

ObjectiveTo provide the first international comparison of oesophageal and gastric cancer survival by stage at diagnosis and histological subtype across high-income countries with similar access to healthcare.MethodsAs part of the ICBP SURVMARK-2 project, data from 28 923 patients with oesophageal cancer and 25 946 patients with gastric cancer diagnosed during 2012–2014 from 14 cancer registries in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK) were included. 1-year and 3-year age-standardised net survival were estimated by stage at diagnosis, histological subtype (oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) and oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC)) and country.ResultsOesophageal cancer survival was highest in Ireland and lowest in Canada at 1 (50.3% vs 41.3%, respectively) and 3 years (27.0% vs 19.2%) postdiagnosis. Survival from gastric cancer was highest in Australia and lowest in the UK, for both 1-year (55.2% vs 44.8%, respectively) and 3-year survival (33.7% vs 22.3%). Most patients with oesophageal and gastric cancer had regional or distant disease, with proportions ranging between 56% and 90% across countries. Stage-specific analyses showed that variation between countries was greatest for localised disease, where survival ranged between 66.6% in Australia and 83.2% in the UK for oesophageal cancer and between 75.5% in Australia and 94.3% in New Zealand for gastric cancer at 1-year postdiagnosis. While survival for OAC was generally higher than that for OSCC, disparities across countries were similar for both histological subtypes.ConclusionSurvival from oesophageal and gastric cancer varies across high-income countries including within stage groups, particularly for localised disease. Disparities can partly be explained by earlier diagnosis resulting in more favourable stage distributions, and distributions of histological subtypes of oesophageal cancer across countries. Yet, differences in treatment, and also in cancer registration practice and the use of different staging methods and systems, across countries may have impacted the comparisons. While primary prevention remains key, advancements in early detection research are promising and will likely allow for additional risk stratification and survival improvements in the future.

International comparison of liver cancer survival has been hampered due to varying standards and degrees for morphological verification and differences in coding practices. This article aims to compare liver cancer survival across the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership's (ICBP) jurisdictions whilst trying to ensure that the estimates are comparable through a range of sensitivity analyses. Liver cancer incidence data from 21 jurisdictions in 7 countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom) were obtained from population-based registries for 1995-2014. Cases were categorised based on histological classification, age-groups, basis of diagnosis and calendar period. Age-standardised incidence rate (ASR) per 100 000 and net survival at 1 and 3 years after diagnosis were estimated. Liver cancer incidence rates increased over time across all ICBP jurisdictions, particularly for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with the largest relative increase in the United Kingdom, increasing from 1.3 to 4.4 per 100 000 person-years between 1995 and 2014. Australia had the highest age-standardised 1-year and 3-year net survival for all liver cancers combined (48.7% and 28.1%, respectively) in the most recent calendar period, which was still true for morphologically verified tumours when making restrictions to ensure consistent coding and classification. Survival from liver cancers is poor in all countries. The incidence of HCC is increasing alongside the proportion of nonmicroscopically verified cases over time. Survival estimates for all liver tumours combined should be interpreted in this context. Care is needed to ensure that international comparisons are performed on appropriately comparable patients, with careful consideration of coding practice variations.

We sought to understand the role of stage at diagnosis in observed age disparities in colon cancer survival among people aged 50 to 99 years using population-based cancer registry data from seven high-income countries: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom. We used colon cancer incidence data for the period 2010 to 2014. We estimated the 3-year net survival, as well as the 3-year net survival conditional on surviving at least 6 months and 1 year after diagnosis, by country and stage at diagnosis (categorised as localised, regional or distant) using flexible parametric excess hazard regression models. In all countries, increasing age was associated with lower net survival. For example, 3-year net survival (95% confidence interval) was 81% (80-82) for 50 to 64 year olds and 58% (56-60) for 85 to 99 year olds in Australia, and 74% (73-74) and 39% (39-40) in the United Kingdom, respectively. Those with distant stage colon cancer had the largest difference in colon cancer survival between the youngest and the oldest patients. Excess mortality for the oldest patients with localised or regional cancers was observed during the first 6 months after diagnosis. Older patients diagnosed with localised (and in some countries regional) stage colon cancer who survived 6 months after diagnosis experienced the same survival as their younger counterparts. Further studies examining other prognostic clinical factors such as comorbidities and treatment, and socioeconomic factors are warranted to gain further understanding of the age disparities in colon cancer survival.

Background Data from population-based cancer registries are often used to compare cancer survival between countries or regions. The ICBP SURVMARK-2 study is an international partnership aiming to quantify and explore the reasons behind survival differences across high-income countries. However, the magnitude and relevance of differences in cancer survival between countries have been questioned, as it is argued that observed survival variations may be explained, at least in part, by differences in cancer registration practice, completeness and the availability and quality of the respective data sources. Methods As part of the ICBP SURVMARK-2 study, we used a simulation approach to better understand how differences in completeness, the characteristics of those missed and inclusion of cases found from death certificates can impact on cancer survival estimates. Results Bias in 1- and 5-year net survival estimates for 216 simulated scenarios is presented. Out of the investigated factors, the proportion of cases not registered through sources other than death certificates, had the largest impact on survival estimates. Conclusion Our results show that the differences in registration practice between participating countries could in our most extreme scenarios explain only a part of the largest observed differences in cancer survival.

Objective To explore differences in position emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) service provision internationally to further understand the impact variation may have upon cancer services. To identify areas of further exploration for researchers and policymakers to optimize PET-CT services and improve the quality of cancer services. Design Comparative analysis using data based on pre-defined PET-CT service metrics from PET-CT stakeholders across seven countries. This was further informed via document analysis of clinical indication guidance and expert consensus through round-table discussions of relevant PET-CT stakeholders. Descriptive comparative analyses were produced on use, capacity and indication guidance for PET-CT services between jurisdictions. Setting PET-CT services across 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Denmark, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK). Participants None. Intervention(s) None. Main Outcome Measure(s) None. Results PET-CT service provision has grown over the period 2006–2017, but scale of increase in capacity and demand is variable. Clinical indication guidance varied across countries, particularly for small-cell lung cancer staging and the specific acknowledgement of gastric cancer within oesophagogastric cancers. There is limited and inconsistent data capture, coding, accessibility and availability of PET-CT activity across countries studied. Conclusions Variation in PET-CT scanner quantity, acquisition over time and guidance upon use exists internationally. There is a lack of routinely captured and accessible PET-CT data across the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership countries due to inconsistent data definitions, data linkage issues, uncertain coverage of data and lack of specific coding. This is a barrier in improving the quality of PET-CT services globally. There needs to be greater, richer data capture of diagnostic and staging tools to facilitate learning of best practice and optimize cancer services.

An estimated 33-37% of incident cancers in Canada are attributable to modifiable risk factors. Interventions targeting these risk factors would minimize the substantial health and economic burdens Canadians face due to cancer. We estimate the future health and economic burden of cancer in Canada by incorporating data from the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study into OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool.Using the integrated OncoSim population attributable risk and population impact measures, we evaluated risk factor-targeted intervention scenarios implemented in 2020, assuming the targeted risk factor prevalence reduction would be achieved by 2032 with a 12-year latency period.We estimate that smoking will be the largest contributor to cancer-related costs, with a cost of CAD $44.4 billion between 2032 and 2044. An estimated CAD $3.3 billion of the cost could be avoided with a 30% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2022. Following smoking, the next highest cancer management costs are associated with inadequate physical activity and excess body weight, accounting for CAD $10.7 billion ($2.7 billion avoidable) and CAD $9.8 billion ($3.2 billion avoidable), respectively. Avoidable costs for other risk factors range from CAD $90 million to CAD $2.5 billion.Interventions targeting modifiable cancer risk factors could prevent a substantial number of incident cancer cases and billions of dollars in cancer management costs. With limited budgets and rising costs in cancer care in Canada, these simulation models and results are valuable for researchers and policymakers to inform decisions and prioritize and evaluate intervention programs.RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Il est estimé que de 33 % à 37 % des cancers incidents au Canada sont imputables à des facteurs de risque modifiables. Des interventions ciblant ces facteurs de risque réduiraient le fardeau sanitaire et économique considérable du cancer dans la population canadienne. Nous avons estimé le futur fardeau sanitaire et économique du cancer au Canada en intégrant les données de l’étude ComPARe (Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer) dans l’outil de microsimulation en ligne OncoSim. MéTHODE: À l’aide des indicateurs d’impact dans la population et du risque attribuable dans la population intégrés dans OncoSim, nous avons évalué des scénarios d’intervention mis en œuvre en 2020 axés sur les facteurs de risque, en partant de l’hypothèse que la réduction de la prévalence des facteurs de risque ciblés serait atteinte d’ici 2032 avec une période de latence de 12 ans. RéSULTATS: Nous estimons que le tabagisme sera le facteur qui contribuera le plus aux coûts du cancer, avec un coût de 44,4 milliards $ CA entre 2032 et 2044. Il est estimé qu’une part de 3,3 milliards $ CA de ce coût pourrait être évitée en réduisant de 30 % la prévalence du tabagisme d’ici 2022. Après le tabagisme, les coûts de prise en charge du cancer les plus élevés sont associés à l’inactivité physique et au surpoids, qui représentent respectivement 10,7 milliard $ CA (dont 2,7 milliards $ évitables) et 9,8 milliards $ CA (dont 3,2 milliards $ évitables). Les coûts évitables pour d’autres facteurs de risque vont de 90 millions $ CA à 2,5 milliards $ CA. CONCLUSION: Des interventions ciblant les facteurs de risque de cancer modifiables pourraient prévenir un nombre considérable de cas de cancers incidents et épargner des milliards de dollars en coûts de prise en charge du cancer. Avec les budgets serrés et la hausse des coûts des soins du cancer au Canada, ces modèles de simulation et leurs résultats permettent aux chercheurs et aux responsables des politiques d’éclairer les décisions et de hiérarchiser et d’évaluer les programmes d’intervention.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer registries strive to cover all cancer cases diagnosed within the population, but some cases will always be missed and no register is 100 % complete. Many cancer registries use death certificates to identify additional cases not captured through other routine sources, to hopefully add a large proportion of the missed cases. Cases notified through this route, who would not have been captured without death certificate information, are referred to as Death Certificate Initiated (DCI) cases. Inclusion of DCI cases in cancer registries increases completeness and is important for estimating cancer incidence. However, inclusion of DCI cases will generally lead to biased estimates of cancer survival, but the same is often also true if excluding DCI cases. Missed cases are probably not a random sample of all cancer cases, but rather cases with poor prognosis. Further, DCI cases have poorer prognosis than missed cases in general, since they have all died with cancer mentioned on the death certificates.METHODS: We performed a simulation study to estimate the impact of including or excluding DCI cases on cancer survival estimates, under different scenarios.RESULTS: We demonstrated that including DCI cases underestimates survival. The exclusion of DCI cases gives unbiased survival estimates if missed cases are a random sample of all cancer cases, while survival is overestimated if these have poorer prognosis.CONCLUSION: In our most extreme scenarios, with 25 % of cases initially missed, the usual practice of including DCI cases underestimated 5-year survival by at most 3 percentage points.

Despite the fact that the sale of tobacco to minors is illegal in Ontario, youth are still able to purchase tobacco. This study aims to determine the geographic variations of underage tobacco sales at the neighborhood level within the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit. Data were collected on all inspections of tobacco retail stores from 2007 to 2011 in the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit. Data were split into season 1 (September-February) and season 2 (March-August) to assess a possible seasonal effect. Relative risks were calculated for each dissemination area (DA) by modeling the risks in a hierarchical Bayesian fashion, incorporating appropriate random effects terms for both spatially correlated and uncorrelated random errors with adjustments for neighborhood income. The association between violation rate and proximity to a school was assessed through a buffer analysis. Elliptical analysis detected a significant cluster of high risk DAs in season 1 in Windsor (p-value = 0.022) but no significant cluster in season 2. Some DAs exhibited higher relative risks of tobacco sales to minors, however after adjusting the model for neighborhood income no excess risk was observed. The results of the buffer analysis showed that in season 1 there was a significantly higher probability (p-value = 0.045) of tobacco vendors located closer to schools to sell tobacco to minors. This analysis demonstrates the utility of a systematic approach to identifying neighborhoods with higher risks of tobacco sales to minors. The insights provided by this exploratory, ecologic study are valuable for program planning and directing tobacco enforcement efforts to high risk areas.

BACKGROUND: Although cancer incidence over time is well documented in Canada, trends by birth cohort and age group are less well known. We analyzed age- and sex-standardized incidence trends in Canada for 16 major cancer sites and all cancers combined. METHODS: We obtained nationally representative population-based cancer incidence data in Canada between 1971 and 2015 from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1969–1992) and the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992–2015). We analyzed cancer-incidence trends, reported as annual percent change (APC) for each 10-year group from age 20 to 89 years. We also estimated age-adjusted incidence rate ratios from fitted birth cohort models. RESULTS: Across most age categories, the most recent trends show significant decreases in the incidence of cervical (APC −8.8% to −0.33%), lung (men: −7.42% to −0.36%; women: −6.27% to 1.07%), bladder (women: −4.12% to −0.07%; men: −5.13% to −0.38%) and prostate cancer (−11.11% to −1.11%). Significant increasing trends were observed for kidney, thyroid and uterine cancers. Overall incidence has increased among both sexes younger than 50 years of age, with recent increases in pancreatic cancer among men, breast cancer among women and colorectal cancer among both sexes. From the birth cohort analysis, we observed increasing trends in colorectal, liver and prostate cancers among men; kidney cancer and melanoma among women; and thyroid cancer among both sexes. We observed decreasing trends in cervical and ovarian cancers, and in bladder and lung cancers among men. INTERPRETATION: Cancer incidence is decreasing at many sites targeted by primary-prevention efforts, such as smoking cessation and screening programs. Substantial increases in incidence among younger populations are driven by cancers possibly associated with obesity.

© 2019 World Health Organization Background: Population-based cancer survival estimates provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of cancer services and can reflect the prospects of cure. As part of the second phase of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership (ICBP), the Cancer Survival in High-Income Countries (SURVMARK-2) project aims to provide a comprehensive overview of cancer survival across seven high-income countries and a comparative assessment of corresponding incidence and mortality trends. Methods: In this longitudinal, population-based study, we collected patient-level data on 3·9 million patients with cancer from population-based cancer registries in 21 jurisdictions in seven countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and the UK) for seven sites of cancer (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, and ovary) diagnosed between 1995 and 2014, and followed up until Dec 31, 2015. We calculated age-standardised net survival at 1 year and 5 years after diagnosis by site, age group, and period of diagnosis. We mapped changes in incidence and mortality to changes in survival to assess progress in cancer control. Findings: In 19 eligible jurisdictions, 3 764 543 cases of cancer were eligible for inclusion in the study. In the 19 included jurisdictions, over 1995–2014, 1-year and 5-year net survival increased in each country across almost all cancer types, with, for example, 5-year rectal cancer survival increasing more than 13 percentage points in Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. For 2010–14, survival was generally higher in Australia, Canada, and Norway than in New Zealand, Denmark, Ireland, and the UK. Over the study period, larger survival improvements were observed for patients younger than 75 years at diagnosis than those aged 75 years and older, and notably for cancers with a poor prognosis (ie, oesophagus, stomach, pancreas, and lung). Progress in cancer control (ie, increased survival, decreased mortality and incidence) over the study period was evident for stomach, colon, lung (in males), and ovarian cancer. Interpretation: The joint evaluation of trends in incidence, mortality, and survival indicated progress in four of the seven studied cancers. Cancer survival continues to increase across high-income countries; however, international disparities persist. While truly valid comparisons require differences in registration practice, classification, and coding to be minimal, stage of disease at diagnosis, timely access to effective treatment, and the extent of comorbidity are likely the main determinants of patient outcomes. Future studies are needed to assess the impact of these factors to further our understanding of international disparities in cancer survival. Funding: Canadian Partnership Against Cancer; Cancer Council Victoria; Cancer Institute New South Wales; Cancer Research UK; Danish Cancer Society; National Cancer Registry Ireland; The Cancer Society of New Zealand; National Health Service England; Norwegian Cancer Society; Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, on behalf of the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry; The Scottish Government; Western Australia Department of Health; and Wales Cancer Network.

Up-to-date estimates of current and projected future cancer burden attributable to various exposures are essential for planning and implementing cancer prevention initiatives. The Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study was conducted to: i) estimate the number and proportion of cancers diagnosed among adults in Canada in 2015 that are attributable to modifiable risk factors and ii) project the future avoidable cancers by 2042 under various intervention targets. We estimated the population attributable risk (with 95% confidence intervals) and the potential impact fraction of cancers associated with selected lifestyle, environmental, and infectious factors. Exposure-specific sensitivity analyses were also completed where appropriate. Several exposures of interest included active and passive smoking, obesity and abdominal adiposity, leisure-time physical inactivity, sedentary behaviour, alcohol consumption, insufficient fruit and vegetable intake, red and processed meat consumption, air pollution (PM2.5, NO2), indoor radon gas, ultraviolet radiation (UVR), hepatitis B and C virus, Helicobacter pylori, Epstein-Barr virus, human papillomavirus, human herpesvirus type 8 and human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1. We used the 2015 cancer incidence data for 35 cancer sites from the Canadian Cancer Registry and projected cancer incidence to 2042 using historical data from 1983 to 2012. Here, we provide an overview of the data sources and methods used in estimating the current and future cancer burden in Canada. Specific methodologic details for each exposure are included in the individual articles included as part of this special issue.

With a strong focus on end user, or knowledge user, engagement throughout the study, an integrated knowledge translation approach (iKT) is expected to enhance the quality, relevance and reach of research findings. From its initiation, the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study combined the expertise of the knowledge producers (cancer prevention researchers) and select knowledge users in an iKT approach. We describe in detail our iKT approach, including governance, outputs and early reflections. In our model, knowledge users were integrated as members of the research team or members of a KT Advisory Committee. The integrated knowledge users took a lead role on the KT activities for ComPARe, including developing the KT Blueprint, a four phase systematic approach to guide the planning and implementation of KT activities. This approach included planning, knowledge product development, dissemination and evaluation, with advisory committee engagement built in throughout. Our early reflections identified enablers and challenges of an iKT approach for this study. Enablers included co-investigators' commitment and attitude towards iKT, support for iKT from the funding agency, an established partnership early on, understanding of and experience in each other's area of expertise, dedicated funding, clearly delineated roles, advisory committee buy-in and existing tools. Challenges included anticipating all costs, continuity of involvement, competing priorities, relationship management and geographic distance. A future evaluation will determine the effectiveness and impact of the iKT approach and KT Blueprint. In the interim, the approach we describe here can be modeled by others interested in collaborative, action-oriented research.

The public health burden of nonmalignant central nervous system tumors (NMCNSTs) in Canada is unclear because casefinding and registration have historically been incomplete. The primary objective of this study is to quantify case-completeness of NMCNSTs in the Canadian Cancer Registry (CCR) using US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER) rates as the standard.Counts, distributions, and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) for malignant central nervous system tumors (MCNSTs) and NMCNSTs by sex, age, site, histology, tumor size, World Health Organization (WHO) grade, and year of diagnosis were estimated for the United States and Canada (excluding Quebec) for the time period 2011-2015 using SEER and CCR data, respectively. Canadian and provincial standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were also calculated by sex, age, site, histology and year of diagnosis using SEER rates as the standard. Under the assumptions of high NMCNST case-completeness in SEER registries and comparable population-based rates in the United States and Canada, SIRs less than 100% suggest incomplete case registration.Between 2011 and 2015, the ASIR for MCNSTs is similar in the United States (6.97 per 100,000 persons; 95% CI, 6.89-7.05), Canada (7.11 per 100,000; 95% CI, 6.97-7.24), and across provinces (range, 6.53-7.35 per 100,000). Conversely, the ASIR for NMCNSTs is 1.61 times greater in the United States (17.15 per 100,000; 95% CI, 17.02-17.27) than Canada (10.65 per 100,000; 95% CI, 10.49-10.82). SIRs for NMCNSTs range from 22.5% (95% CI, 15.6%-31.5%) in Prince Edward Island to 85.3% (95% CI, 83.7%-86.9%) in Ontario and vary by demographics, tumor characteristics, and year. Identified data limitations include nonspecific tumor characteristics and potential misclassification.NMCNST surveillance in Canada is compromised by incomplete case registration and data quality limitations. Enhancement of case ascertainment processes for these tumors, which may be diagnosed radiologically, may be warranted.

Summary Background The overall incidence of colorectal cancer is decreasing in many high-income countries, yet analyses in the USA and other high-income countries such as Australia, Canada, and Norway have suggested increasing incidences among adults younger than 50 years. We aimed to examine longitudinal and generational changes in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer in seven high-income countries. Methods We obtained data for the incidence of colon and rectal cancer from 20 population-based cancer registries in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Ireland, and the UK for the earliest available year until 2014. We used age–period–cohort modelling to assess trends in incidence by age group, period, and birth cohort. We stratified cases by tumour subsite according to the 10th edition of the International Classification of Diseases. Age-standardised incidences were calculated on the basis of the world standard population. Findings An overall decline or stabilisation in the incidence of colon and rectal cancer was noted in all studied countries. In the most recent 10-year period for which data were available, however, significant increases were noted in the incidence of colon cancer in people younger than 50 years in Denmark (by 3·1%; per year), New Zealand (2·9% per year), Australia (2·9% per year), and the UK (1·8% per year). Significant increases in the average annual percentage change in the incidence of rectal cancer were also noted in this age group in Canada (by 3·4% per year), Australia (2·6% per year), and the UK (1·4% per year). Contemporaneously, in people aged 50–74 years, the average annual percentage change in the incidence of colon cancer decreased significantly in Australia (by 1·6% per year), Canada (1·9% per year), and New Zealand (3·4% per year) and of rectal cancer in Australia (2·4% per year), Canada (1·2% per year), and the UK (1·2% per year). Increases in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years were mainly driven by increases in distal (left) tumours of the colon. In all countries, we noted non-linear cohort effects, which were more pronounced for rectal than for colon cancer. Interpretation We noted a substantial increase in the incidence of colorectal cancer in people younger than 50 years in some of the countries in this study. Future studies are needed to establish the root causes of this rising incidence to enable the development of potential preventive and early-detection strategies. Funding Canadian Partnership Against Cancer, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Institute New South Wales, Cancer Research UK, Danish Cancer Society, National Cancer Registry Ireland, the Cancer Society of New Zealand, NHS England, Norwegian Cancer Society, Public Health Agency Northern Ireland, Scottish Government, Western Australia Department of Health, and Wales Cancer Network.

Background While the overall incidence rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) in Canada has been decreasing, some countries show an increasing incidence in those under the age of 50. We examined the trends in CRC incidence and associated lifestyle risk factors in Canadians aged 15⿿49. Methods Incidence data for colorectal, colon and rectum/rectosigmoid cancers were obtained for 1969⿿2010 from the Canadian Cancer Registry, and trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were examined by Joinpoint regression for three age groups (15⿿29, 30⿿39, 40⿿49 years) and by sex. Trends in the prevalence of some CRC risk factors were similarly examined from national health surveys for various periods ranging from 1970 to 2012. Results In both sexes combined, ASIRs rose by 6.7%/year (1997⿿2010) for 15⿿29-year-olds, 2.4%/year (1996⿿2010) for 30⿿39-year-olds, and 0.8%/year (1997⿿2010) for 40⿿49-year-olds. Similar trends were observed by sex. The rise in ASIR was more rapid for cancers of the rectum/rectosigmoid compared to colon for all age groups. Risk factor trends varied: excess weight rose substantially, vegetables and fruit consumption increased slightly, physical inactivity rates declined but remained high, alcohol consumption changed little, and smoking rates declined. Data on red/processed meat consumption were unavailable. Conclusion The ASIR of CRC in young Canadians has increased since about the mid-1990s. The rising prevalence of excess weight in younger generations has likely played a role in the CRC trend, but more research is needed.

IntroductionSurvival from oesophageal cancer remains poor, even across high-income countries. Ongoing changes in the epidemiology of the disease highlight the need for survival assessments by its two main histological subtypes, adenocarcinoma (AC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).MethodsThe ICBP SURVMARK-2 project, a platform for international comparisons of cancer survival, collected cases of oesophageal cancer diagnosed 1995 to 2014, followed until 31st December 2015, from cancer registries covering seven participating countries with similar access to healthcare (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK). 1-year and 3-year age-standardised net survival alongside incidence rates were calculated by country, subtype, sex, age group and period of diagnosis.Results111 894 cases of AC and 73 408 cases of SCC were included in the analysis. Marked improvements in survival were observed over the 20-year period in each country, particularly for AC, younger age groups and 1 year after diagnosis. Survival was consistently higher for both subtypes in Australia and Ireland followed by Norway, Denmark, New Zealand, the UK and Canada. During 2010 to 2014, survival was higher for AC compared with SCC, with 1-year survival ranging from 46.9% (Canada) to 54.4% (Ireland) for AC and 39.6% (Denmark) to 53.1% (Australia) for SCC.ConclusionMarked improvements in both oesophageal AC and SCC survival suggest advances in treatment. Less marked improvements 3 years after diagnosis, among older age groups and patients with SCC, highlight the need for further advances in early detection and treatment of oesophageal cancer alongside primary prevention to reduce the overall burden from the disease.

The incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing and survival rates are poor. Our objectives were to estimate the relative survival over time in patients with HCC in Ontario and to examine potential factors associated with excess mortality risk.We performed a population-based retrospective cohort analysis involving patients with a diagnosis of HCC in Ontario between 1990 and 2009 using data extracted from the Ontario Cancer Registry. Relative survival was estimated by controlling for background mortality using expected mortality from Ontario life tables. A generalized linear model was used to estimate the excess mortality risk for important factors.A total of 5645 patients had HCC diagnosed during the study period; 4412 (78.2%) of these patients were male. Improvements in 1-year relative survival were observed across all age groups over time: the highest was among those patients less than 60 years of age who had a diagnosis of HCC during 2005-2009, with 1-year survival exceeding 50% for both sexes. However, the overall 5-year relative survival did not exceed 28%. The excess mortality risk decreased with increased years of follow-up, recent diagnosis, and curative or noncurative treatments for HCC, whereas excess mortality risk increased with age.Although improving, the prognosis for HCC remains poor. Our findings highlight the importance of effective prevention and treatment for HCC to reduce the burden of disease and improve health care systems.

BACKGROUND The relation between breast cancer molecular subtype and survival has been studied in several jurisdictions, but limited information is available for Ontario. The aim of this study was to determine breast cancer survival by molecular subtype and to assess the effect on survival of selected demographic and tumour-based characteristics. METHODS We extracted 29 833 breast cancer cases (in 26 538 girls and women aged ≥ 15 yr) diagnosed between 2010 and 2012 from the Ontario Cancer Registry. Cancers were categorized into 4 molecular subtypes: 1) luminal A (estrogen-receptor-positive and/or progesterone-receptor-positive [ER+ and/or PR+] and negative for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 [HER2-]), 2) luminal B (ER+ and/or PR+/HER2+), 3) HER2-enriched (ER- and PR-/HER2+) and 4) triple-negative (ER- and PR-/HER2-). We estimated associations with predictor variables (age, stage at diagnosis, histologic type, comorbidity and place of residence [urban or rural]) using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Likelihood ratio testing was used to evaluate differences in risk of death. RESULTS Luminal A was the most commonly diagnosed subtype (59.0%) and had the greatest survival, whereas triple-negative had the poorest survival. For all subtypes, a dose-response effect was observed between the hazard of death and age and stage at diagnosis, with the greatest effect found for the HER2-enriched subtype (age: hazard ratio [HR] 7.87 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.68-11.81]; stage at diagnosis: HR 37.71 [95% CI 34.64-41.27]). Moderate comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index score 1 or 2) was associated with increased risk of death for triple-negative cancers (HR 2.42 [95% CI 1.36-4.31]), and severe comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index score ≥ 3) increased the risk for all molecular subtypes. INTERPRETATION The results indicate the importance of including molecular subtype, along with age, stage at diagnosis and comorbidity, in assessing breast cancer survival. They highlight the need to address outcomes related to hormone-receptor-negative cancers, for which survival lags behind that for hormone-receptor-positive cancers.

Recent analyses in the United States have shown an overall decrease in the incidence of colorectal cancer despite contrasting increases in younger age groups. We examined whether these cohort trends are occurring in Canada. Age-specific trends in colon and rectal cancer incidence in Canada from the National Cancer Incidence Reporting System (1969-1992) and the Canadian Cancer Registry (1992-2012) were analyzed. We estimated annual percent changes (APC) with the Joinpoint Regression Program from the Surveillance Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Birth cohort effects were estimated using 5-year groups starting in 1888. Age-specific prevalence of class I, II and III obesity in Canada was examined from the National Population Health Survey (1994-2001) and the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001-2011). The reductions in CRC incidence among Canadians are limited to older populations. While reductions among younger age groups (20-29year olds (yo), 30-39yo and 40-50yo) were observed between 1969 and 1995, rates have returned to and surpassed historical levels (APCs 20-29yo colon cancer=6.24%, APCs 20-29yo rectal cancer=1.5%). Recent birth cohorts (1970-1990) have the highest incidence rate ratios ever recorded. Ecologic trends in obesity prevalence among these birth cohorts in Canada are suggestive of an impact on increasing incidence trends. Furthermore, obesity prevalence estimates suggest that these trends may continue to increase justifying further examination of the etiologic associations and biological impacts of excess adipose tissue among younger populations. While population-based screening of younger age groups deserves careful consideration, these concerning observed trends warrant public health action to address the growing obesity epidemic.

Introduction La surveillance des tendances concernant le cancer peut aider à évaluer les progrès réalisés dans la lutte contre le cancer ainsi qu'à renforcer les activités de prévention. La présente étude, fondée sur les données des bases de données nationales, consiste en un examen des tendances à long terme relatives à certains cancers au Canada. Méthodologie Nous avons examiné les changements annuels dans les tendances relatives aux taux d'incidence et de mortalité normalisés selon l'âge observés entre 1970 et 2007 selon le sexe pour tous les cancers combinés, pour les quatre cancers les plus courants (cancer de la prostate, cancer du sein, cancer du poumon, cancer colorectal) et pour les cancers dont les tendances ont été marquées par les changements les plus importants au cours des dernières années. Le rapport de survie relative à cinq ans pour les années 1992 à 2007 a également été calculé. Résultats Pendant la période visée par l'étude, les taux d'incidence de l'ensemble des cas de cancer primitif combinés ont augmenté de 0,9 % par année chez les hommes et de 0,8 % par année chez les femmes. Les taux concernant le mélanome, le cancer de la thyroïde, le cancer du foie, le cancer de la prostate, le cancer du rein, le cancer colorectal, le cancer du poumon, le cancer du sein et le cancer de la vessie ont augmenté à des rythmes variables, et les taux concernant le cancer du larynx, le cancer de la bouche, le cancer de l'estomac et le cancer du col de l'utérus ont diminué. Pour l'ensemble des cancers combinés et pour la plupart des cancers examinés, à l'exception du mélanome et du cancer du poumon chez les femmes, les taux de mortalité ont diminué significativement. Les taux de survie qui ont le plus augmenté sont ceux du cancer de la prostate, du cancer du foie, du cancer colorectal et du cancer du rein. Bien que les tendances globales concernant les taux de mortalité et la survie indiquent que des progrès notables ont été réalisés dans la lutte contre le cancer, la tendance à la hausse des taux d'incidence de certains cancers soulignent la nécessité de poursuivre les efforts dans le domaine de la prévention.

Introduction Monitoring cancer trends can help evaluate progress in cancer control while reinforcing prevention activities. This analysis examines long-term trends for selected cancers in Canada using data from national databases. Methods Annual changes in trends for age-standardized incidence and mortality rates between 1970 and 2007 were examined by sex for 1) all cancers combined, 2) the four most common cancers (prostate, breast, lung, colorectal) and 3) cancers that demonstrate the most recent notable changes in trend. Five-year relative survival for 1992–2007 was also calculated. Results Incidence rates for all primary cancer cases combined increased 0.9% per year in males and 0.8% per year in females over the study period, with varying degrees of increase for melanoma, thyroid, liver, prostate, kidney, colorectal, lung, breast, and bladder cancers and decrease for larynx, oral, stomach and cervical cancers. Mortality rates were characterized by significant declines for all cancers combined and for most cancers examined except for melanoma and female lung cancer. The largest improvements in cancer survival were for prostate, liver, colorectal and kidney cancers. While the overall trends in mortality rates and survival point to notable successes in cancer control, the increasing trend in incidence rates for some cancers emphasize the need for continued efforts in prevention.

Background In 2002, results of the Women's Health Initiative clinical trial indicated that the long-term risks of combined estrogen and progestin hormone replacement therapy outweighed the health benefits for postmenopausal women. The resulting decline in use of hormone replacement therapy was followed by concurrent decreases in breast cancer incidence in several countries. The aim of the current study was to determine whether similar declines occurred in Canada. Methods Data on prescriptions for hormone therapy were obtained from a national registry of pharmacy-filled prescriptions to confirm the reported trend in use of hormone replacement therapy among approximately 1200 women aged 50-69 years who participated in the National Population Health Survey between 1996 and 2006 and whose data were extrapolated to the Canadian female population. Age-standardized incidence rates for breast cancer were obtained from the population-based Canadian Cancer Registry for the same period, and mammography rates were obtained from the Canadian Community Health Survey. Joinpoint regression was used to examine changes in trends in the use of hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer incidence. Results A reduced frequency of use of hormone replacement therapy was reflected in the decrease in dispensed hormone therapy prescriptions after 2002. The largest drop in use of combined hormone replacement therapy (from 12.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1% to 14.2%, to 4.9%, 95% CI = 3.4% to 6.8%, of all women) occurred between January 1, 2002, and December 31, 2004, among women aged 50-69 years. This drop occurred concurrently with a 9.6% decline in the incidence rate of breast cancer (from 296.3 per 100,000 women, 95% CI = 290.8 to 300.5 per 100,000 women, in 2002 to 268.0 per 100,000 women, 95% CI = 263.3 to 273.5 per 100,000 women, in 2004). Mammography rates were stable at 72% over the same period. Conclusion During the period 2002-2004, there was a link between the declines in the use of hormone replacement therapy and breast cancer incidence among Canadian women aged 50-69 years, in the absence of any change in mammography rates.

IntroductionThe Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer project aims to quantify the number and proportion of cancer cases incident in Canada, now and projected to 2042, that could be prevented through changes in the prevalence of modifiable exposures associated with cancer. The broad risk factor categories of interest include tobacco, diet, energy imbalance, infectious diseases, hormonal therapies and environmental factors such as air pollution and residential radon.Methods and analysisUsing a national network, we will use population-attributable risks (PAR) and potential impact fractions (PIF) to model both attributable (current) and avoidable (future) cancers. The latency periods and the temporal relationships between exposures and cancer diagnoses will be accounted for in the analyses. For PAR estimates, historical exposure prevalence data and the most recent provincial and national cancer incidence data will be used. For PIF estimates, we will model alternative or ‘counterfactual’ distributions of cancer risk factor exposures to assess how cancer incidence could be reduced under different scenarios of population exposure, projecting incidence to 2042.DisseminationThe framework provided can be readily extended and applied to other populations or jurisdictions outside of Canada. An embedded knowledge translation and exchange component of this study with our Canadian Cancer Society partners will ensure that these findings are translated to cancer programmes and policies aimed at population-based cancer risk reduction strategies.

Summary The aim of the study was to determine the characteristics of primary and late latent syphilis cases that were non-reactive on initial screening by rapid plasma reagin (RPR) but reactive by treponemal tests. RPR test results of all primary and late latent syphilis cases in the province of Alberta, Canada during 1980–2001 were compiled. The proportion of syphilis cases that were non-reactive by RPR testing was compared with reactive cases. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with non-reactive RPR results. Among primary syphilis cases, 224 (26%) were non-reactive on initial RPR and were compared with 639 reactive primary cases. Independent factors associated with a non-reactive result were male gender (odds ratio, [OR] = 1.99 [1.22–3.26]), Caucasian ethnicity (OR = 1.77 [1.20–2.61]) and diagnosis during the 1980–1986 syphilis outbreak period in Alberta (OR = 3.13 [1.45–6.74]). Of the late latent cases, 512 (39%) were non-reactive by RPR and 791 were reactive. A non-reactive test for late latent cases was associated with male gender (OR = 2.91 [2.15–3.94]), Canadian Aboriginal (OR = 2.91 [1.59–5.32]), Caucasian (OR = 1.87 [1.35–2.58]), black ethnicity (OR = 1.76 [1.28–2.42]) and diagnosis during the 1980–1986 Alberta syphilis outbreak (OR = 1.67 [1.29–2.16]). RPR testing alone is insufficient to diagnose primary and late latent infections under certain conditions and patient characteristics. Case detection was lower for late latent syphilis when compared with primary syphilis based on the properties of the RPR. Further studies are needed to inform the optimal use of the RPR test in laboratory testing algorithms for the diagnosis of syphilis and to determine the cost effectiveness of better screening tests for syphilis.

Secondary syringe exchange (SSE) refers to the exchange of sterile syringes between injection drug users (IDUs). To date there has been limited examination of SSE in relation to the social networks of IDUs. This study aimed to identify characteristics of drug injecting networks associated with the receipt of syringes through SSE. Active IDUs were recruited from syringe exchange and methadone treatment programs in Montreal, Canada, between April 2004 and January 2005. Information on each participant and on their drug-injecting networks was elicited using a structured, interviewer-administered questionnaire. Subjects’ network characteristics were examined in relation to SSE using regression models with generalized estimating equations. Of 218 participants, 126 were SSE recipients with 186 IDUs in their injecting networks. The 92 non-recipients reported 188 network IDUs. Networks of SSE recipients and non-recipients were similar with regard to network size and demographics of network members. In multivariate analyses adjusted for age and gender, SSE recipients were more likely than non-recipients to self-report being HIV-positive (OR = 3.56 [1.54–8.23]); require or provide help with injecting (OR = 3.74 [2.01–6.95]); have a social network member who is a sexual partner (OR = 1.90 [1.11–3.24]), who currently attends a syringe exchange or methadone program (OR = 2.33 [1.16–4.70]), injects daily (OR = 1.77 [1.11–2.84]), and shares syringes with the subject (OR = 2.24 [1.13–4.46]). SSE is associated with several injection-related risk factors that could be used to help focus public health interventions for risk reduction. Since SSE offers an opportunity for the dissemination of important prevention messages, SSE-based networks should be used to improve public health interventions. This approach can optimize the benefits of SSE while minimizing the potential risks associated with the practice of secondary exchange.

Aim To examine the scientific evidence regarding the association between characteristics of social networks of injection drug users (IDUs) and the sharing of drug injection equipment. Methods A search was performed on MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS, Current Contents, PsycINFO databases and other sources to identify published studies on social networks of IDUs. Papers were selected based on their examination of social network factors in relation to the sharing of syringes and drug preparation equipment (e.g. containers, filters, water). Additional relevant papers were found from the reference list of identified articles. Results Network correlates of drug equipment sharing are multi-factorial and include structural factors (network size, density, position, turnover), compositional factors (network member characteristics, role and quality of relationships with members) and behavioural factors (injecting norms, patterns of drug use, severity of drug addiction). Factors appear to be related differentially to equipment sharing. Conclusions Social network characteristics are associated with drug injection risk behaviours and should be considered alongside personal risk behaviours in prevention programmes. Recommendations for future research into the social networks of IDUs are proposed.

Objective: To identify and compare the drug-injecting network characteristics of cocaine and heroin injectors associated with a risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV). Methods: Active injectors were recruited from syringe exchange and methadone programs. Characteristics of all participants and their social networks were elicited. Regression analysis using generalized estimating equations examined the network characteristics of injection drug users (IDUs) relative to cocaine or heroin use in the past 6 months. Results: Of 282 IDUs, 228 (81%) used cocaine and 54 (19%) used heroin as their primary injected drug. In analyses adjusted for age and gender, cocaine injectors compared with heroin injectors were more likely to live in unstable housing (odds ratio [OR] = 3.55, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.49 to 8.40), self-report HCV infection (OR = 4.69, 95% CI: 2.14 to 10.31), and have a greater number of IDUs in their social network (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.14 to 2.28) and were less likely to be polydrug users (OR = 0.06, 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.16) and to have social support (OR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.95 to 0.99). The injecting networks of cocaine users were more likely to have members who were older (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.12), had a history of shooting gallery use (OR = 2.27, 95% CI: 1.08 to 4.76), and had shorter relationships with the subject (OR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85 to 0.97). Conclusions: Beyond personal behaviors, HIV and HCV infection risk seems to be linked to social network traits that are determined by drug type. Prevention efforts to control the spread of bloodborne viruses among IDUs could benefit from tailoring interventions according to the type of drug used.

Objectives: Sexual partnerships can be viewed as networks in order to study disease transmission. We examined the transmission of Neisseria gonorrhoeae in a localised outbreak in Alberta, Canada, using measures of network centrality to determine the association between risk of infection of network members and their position within the sexual network. We also compared risk in smaller disconnected components with a large network centred on a social venue. Methods: During the investigation of the outbreak, epidemiological data were collected on gonorrhoea cases and their sexual contacts from STI surveillance records. In addition to traditional contact tracing information, subjects were interviewed about social venues they attended in the past year where casual sexual partnering may have occurred. Sexual networks were constructed by linking together named partners. Univariate comparisons of individual network member characteristics and algebraic measures of network centrality were completed. Results: The sexual networks consisted of 182 individuals, of whom 107 were index cases with laboratory confirmed gonorrhoea and 75 partners of index cases. People who had significantly higher information centrality within each of their local networks were found to have patronised a popular motel bar in the main town in the region (p = 0.05). When the social interaction through the bar was considered, a large network of 89 individuals was constructed that joined all eight of the largest local networks. Moreover, several networks from different communities were linked by individuals who served as bridge populations as a result of their sexual partnering. Conclusion: Asking clients about particular social venues emphasised the importance of location in disease transmission. Network measures of centrality, particularly information centrality, allowed the identification of key individuals through whom infection could be channelled into local networks. Such individuals would be ideal targets for increased interventions.

BACKGROUND: Incarcerated persons experience high rates of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, but little is known about the burden of these bloodborne viruses among federal penitentiary inmates in Canada.OBJECTIVES: The present study investigates rates of testing and seropositivity for HIV and HCV among inmates in all 53 Canadian federal penitentiaries.METHODS: A cross-sectional design using surveillance data on voluntary HIV and HCV antibody testing in 2002 were applied to estimate the rate of testing uptake and the rate of incident seropositive tests among new admissions to federal penitentiaries and resident inmates. Rates of testing and infection were further examined by sex and region. Seroprevalence of HIV and HCV was estimated from the number of cumulative positive tests to year-end.RESULTS: Of 7670 new admissions during 2002, 30% were tested for HIV and HCV. Test seropositivity rates in this group were 0.7% for HIV and 10% for HCV. Of the 12,426 resident inmates, 28% were tested for HIV and 27% for HCV. Seropositivity rates in this group were 0.3% for HIV and 7% for HCV. Seroprevalence rates at year-end for 2002 were 2.0% for HIV and 26% for HCV and were substantially higher among women offenders (HIV: 3.7% of women, 1.9% of men; HCV: 34% of women, 26% of men). Variations in testing uptake and test seropositivity were observed across regions.CONCLUSIONS: The present study underscores the value of continued monitoring and evaluation of trends in HIV and HCV infection, which remain prevalent in federal penitentiaries. Higher rates of testing are warranted for at-risk inmates to improve early detection of infection and provide infected inmates with timely care and treatment. For those who remain free of infection, testing can provide the additional benefits of exposing inmates to health counselling and for the reinforcement of prevention messages. The period of incarceration is also a critical opportunity to link inmates with outside resources in preparation for release to the community.

1The incidence is generally highest during the first 5 years of life and decreases with age. The incidence rates of the most common childhood cancers have remained stable during the past 2 decades (Figure 1). The rate of death from childhood cancer has decreased substantially but is still about 135 deaths each year (24.6 per million in 2004). 1 Survivors of childhood cancer are at substantial risk for health problems, including late sequelae of cancer treatment and chronic psychological and cognitive impairments. The latter can hinder both their psychosocial adjustment after treatment and their health and well-being over the long term. Little is known about the cause of childhood cancers. Only a small proportion (probably less than 5%) occur in children who have constitutional genetic abnormalities and diseases such as Down syndrome, AIDS, neurofibromatosis and nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome. Another small proportion is caused by exposure to chemotherapeutic agents or radiotherapy for a prior malignant disease. 2 Opportunities to prevent cancer in children are therefore limited. This is especially so because screening tests are lacking for most childhood cancers. Diagnosis The International Classification of Childhood Cancers 3 was developed to reflect the differences in childhood cancers compared with cancers in adults in terms of histology, site of origin and tumour behaviour. It classifies childhood cancers under 12 diagnostic groups, with additional subgroups for further refinement. Compared with adults, children have a higher proportion of blood and lymphatic cancers, most commonly leukemia, and cancers of the central nervous system. 1 Cancer is slightly more common in boys than in girls, and the type of cancer diagnosed is likely to vary by age. 1

Background: There is little understanding about how the social networks of cocaine injectors are different from those of heroin users and about how such differences are associated with injection risk behaviours. Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare drug-injecting network characteristics of cocaine and heroin injectors believed to be associated with a risk of bloodborne infections. Methods: Active injection drug users (IDUs) were recruited between April 2004 and January 2005 from three syringe exchange and two methadone treatment programs in Montreal, Canada. Characteristics of each participant and of up to 10 social network members (IDU and non-IDU) with whom frequent contact had occurred in the past month were elicited using a structured, interviewer-administered questionnaire. The current analysis focussed on the drug-injecting network members. Logistic regression was used to examine network characteristics in relation to cocaine and heroin injection. Results: Of 282 study subjects, 81% used cocaine and 19% used heroin as their primary injected drug in the past 6 months. Compared to heroin injectors, participants who injected cocaine had lower odds of knowing their network members for a longer time (OR=0.92, 0.85–0.99), were more likely to report a larger IDU network (OR=1.64, 1.18–2.29) and have IDU partners who had a history of attending shooting galleries (OR=2.42, 1.05–5.56). Interpretation: This study identified high-risk network-related factors associated with bloodborne infections in cocaine injectors. Prevention efforts may benefit from tailoring interventions according to type of drug used, with particular attention to the drug injecting-network of IDUs.

Although primary liver cancer is rare, its incidence rate has been rising quickly in Canada, more than tripling since the early 1980s. This cancer is more common in men than women, and the age-specific incidence rates in men have been increasing significantly in all age groups from 40 years of age onward. The death rate has followed a similar upward trajectory, in part because of the low 5-year survival rate of 18% in both sexes. Infection with the hepatitis B or C virus continues to be the most common risk factor, but other factors may also play a role. Risk reduction strategies, such as viral hepatitis screening, have been recommended in other countries and warrant consideration in Canada as part of a coordinated strategy of disease prevention and control.