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The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by changes in aerosol particles due to anthropogenic activity. Sophisticated aerosol microphysics processes have been included in many climate models in an effort to reduce the uncertainty. However, the models are very challenging to evaluate and constrain because they require extensive in situ measurements of the particle size distribution, number concentration, and chemical composition that are not available from global satellite observations. The Global Aerosol Synthesis and Science Project (GASSP) aims to improve the robustness of global aerosol models by combining new methodologies for quantifying model uncertainty, to create an extensive global dataset of aerosol in situ microphysical and chemical measurements, and to develop new ways to assess the uncertainty associated with comparing sparse point measurements with low-resolution models. GASSP has assembled over 45,000 hours of measurements from ships and aircraft as well as data from over 350 ground stations. The measurements have been harmonized into a standardized format that is easily used by modelers and nonspecialist users. Available measurements are extensive, but they are biased to polluted regions of the Northern Hemisphere, leaving large pristine regions and many continental areas poorly sampled. The aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty can be reduced using a rigorous model-data synthesis approach. Nevertheless, our research highlights significant remaining challenges because of the difficulty of constraining many interwoven model uncertainties simultaneously. Although the physical realism of global aerosol models still needs to be improved, the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing will be reduced most effectively by systematically and rigorously constraining the models using extensive syntheses of measurements.

The oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) gives a range of products, from semi-volatile to extremely low-volatility compounds. To treat the interaction of these secondary organic vapours with the particle phase, global aerosol microphysics models generally use either a thermodynamic partitioning approach (assuming instant equilibrium between semi-volatile oxidation products and the particle phase) or a kinetic approach (accounting for the size dependence of condensation). We show that model treatment of the partitioning of biogenic organic vapours into the particle phase, and consequent distribution of material across the size distribution, controls the magnitude of the first aerosol indirect effect (AIE) due to biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA). With a kinetic partitioning approach, SOA is distributed according to the existing condensation sink, enhancing the growth of the smallest particles, i.e. those in the nucleation mode. This process tends to increase cloud droplet number concentrations in the presence of biogenic SOA. By contrast, an approach that distributes SOA according to pre-existing organic mass restricts the growth of the smallest particles, limiting the number that are able to form cloud droplets. With an organically mediated new particle formation mechanism, applying a mass-based rather than a kinetic approach to partitioning reduces our calculated global mean AIE due to biogenic SOA by 24 %. Our results suggest that the mechanisms driving organic partitioning need to be fully understood in order to accurately describe the climatic effects of SOA.

The oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) gives a range of products, from semi-volatile to extremely low-volatility compounds. To treat the interaction of these secondary organic vapours with the particle phase, global aerosol microphysics models generally use either a thermodynamic partitioning approach (assuming instant equilibrium between semi-volatile oxidation products and the particle phase) or a kinetic approach (accounting for the size dependence of condensation). We show that model treatment of the partitioning of biogenic organic vapours into the particle phase, and consequent distribution of material across the size distribution, controls the magnitude of the first aerosol indirect effect (AIE) due to biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA). With a kinetic partitioning approach, SOA is distributed according to the existing condensation sink, enhancing the growth of the smallest particles, i.e. those in the nucleation mode. This process tends to increase cloud droplet number concentrations in the presence of biogenic SOA. By contrast, an approach that distributes SOA according to pre-existing organic mass restricts the growth of the smallest particles, limiting the number that are able to form cloud droplets. With an organically mediated new particle formation mechanism, applying a mass-based rather than a kinetic approach to partitioning reduces our calculated global mean AIE due to biogenic SOA by 24 %. Our results suggest that the mechanisms driving organic partitioning need to be fully understood in order to accurately describe the climatic effects of SOA.

We use a global aerosol microphysics model in combination with an offline radiative transfer model to quantify the radiative effect of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the present-day atmosphere. Through its role in particle growth and ageing, the presence of biogenic SOA increases the global annual mean concentration of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN; at 0.2% supersaturation) by 3.6-21.1 %, depending upon the yield of SOA production from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and the nature and treatment of concurrent primary carbonaceous emissions. This increase in CCN causes a rise in global annual mean cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of 1.9-5.2 %, and a global mean first aerosol indirect effect (AIE) of between +0.01 W m(-2) and -0.12 W m(-2). The radiative impact of biogenic SOA is far greater when biogenic oxidation products also contribute to the very early stages of new particle formation; using two organically mediated mechanisms for new particle formation, we simulate global annual mean first AIEs of -0.22 W m(-2) and -0.77 W m(-2). The inclusion of biogenic SOA substantially improves the simulated seasonal cycle in the concentration of CCN-sized particles observed at three forested sites. The best correlation is found when the organically mediated nucleation mechanisms are applied, suggesting that the first AIE of biogenic SOA could be as large as -0.77 W m(-2). The radiative impact of SOA is sensitive to the presence of anthropogenic emissions. Lower background aerosol concentrations simulated with anthropogenic emissions from 1750 give rise to a greater fractional CCN increase and a more substantial first AIE from biogenic SOA. Consequently, the anthropogenic indirect radiative forcing between 1750 and the present day is sensitive to assumptions about the amount and role of biogenic SOA. We also calculate an annual global mean direct radiative effect of between -0.08 W m(-2) and -0.78 W m(-2) in the present day, with uncertain, AuthorCount:11

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multimodel-mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting t, AuthorCount:52

Understanding the surface O-3 response over a "receptor" region to emission changes over a foreign "source" region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O-3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O-3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O-3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O-3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by > 10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O-3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale "import sensitivity" as the ratio of the O-3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus "domestic" (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O-3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O-3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O-3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annu

Understanding the surface O-3 response over a "receptor" region to emission changes over a foreign "source" region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O-3) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O-3 response over east Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA), and south Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O-3 precursors, NOx, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O-3 concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by > 10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern United States and Japan. The sum of the O-3 responses to NOx, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale "import sensitivity" as the ratio of the O-3 response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus "domestic" (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the three foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O-3 response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the three foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O-3 values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O-3 levels are typically highest and by the weaker relative response of annu

Fifteen chemistry-transport models are used to quantify, for the first time, the export of oxidised nitrogen (NOy) to and from four regions (Europe, North America, South Asia, and East Asia), and to estimate the uncertainty in the results. Between 12 and 24% of the NOx emitted is exported from each region annually. The strongest impact of each source region on a foreign region is: Europe on East Asia, North America on Europe, South Asia on East Asia, and East Asia on North America. Europe exports the most NOy, and East Asia the least. East Asia receives the most NOy from the other regions. Between 8 and 15% of NOx emitted in each region is transported over distances larger than 1000 km, with 3–10% ultimately deposited over the foreign regions.