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RJ Prineas,1 SG Fraser,2 CE Stevens31Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA; 2Sunderland Eye Infirmary, Sunderland, UK; 3Department of Epidemiology, New York Blood Center, New York, NY, USAThe case report has a secure place in medical reporting and medical history stretching back to hand-written manuscripts, early medical texts, and earliest medical scientific publications. As scientific methods took hold, fewer case histories were accepted for publication, being replaced by case series and then analyses from epidemiologic studies, clinical trials (controlled and otherwise), and reports of laboratory clinical practice. Clinicopathology conferences around reporting and presentation of separate cases continue to be convened for regular meetings in hospitals and medical schools for teaching purposes. Case reports appear regularly in sections of medical journals or, more recently, as separate journals devoted entirely to them. Further, open-access case report journals have increased in number markedly in the past decade in parallel with International Medical Case Reports Journal (IMCRJ) submissions.1Since the beginning of the publication, the number of journal articles published in IMCRJ has increased steadily from 3 in the inauguration year (2008) to 69 in the latest full year of publication (Table 1), indicating the growing interest in disseminating such reports.The Journal, established by Dove Press, started publishing in 2008. During the first 8 years (until July 2016), published reports came from 50 separate countries (including articles from Africa, Asia, Europe UK, and USA). Sixty one percent of submitted reports (235/387) have been published, and 152 reports were rejected.The number of “reviewers” for each report ranged from 2 to 6, with an average of 3. The 3 leading countries submitting articles were the United States, Japan, and Turkey. Most papers have come from a single author or group, but 29 author groups submitted 2 or more reports and one group has submitted 6.

Objective and Setting: Associations between prenatal famine and coronary artery disease (CAD) have been examined before with inconsistent results. For further evaluation, we examined multiple cardiac risk markers in adult men and women with prenatal exposure to the Dutch famine of 1944-5.Design: Birth cohort study of 407 men and women with prenatal famine exposure, 344 born before or after the famine as time controls, and 324 unexposed siblings as family controls. Study subjects underwent standardised interviews and clinical examinations at age approximately 58 years.Outcome Measures: CAD events from medical history and medical and electrocardiographic (ECG) markers of CAD risk, including 10-year (Framingham) estimates for myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease death, major and minor ECG abnormalities, ECG estimates of left ventricular hypertrophy and left ventricular mass, cardiac autonomic neuropathy measures including the QT index, resting heart rate, heart rate variability from subsequent N-N intervals, and ECG markers of minor T-wave abnormalities, changes in QRS/T frontal plane angle and ST-segment.Results: No increase was seen in CAD risk (HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.88), Framingham risk (OR 1.14; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.44) or in ECG outcomes, adjusting for age and sex. Left ventricular mass estimated with body size was elevated by 3.78 g (95% CI 0.91 to 6.64) after prenatal famine, but showed a 0.65 g decrease (95% CI -2.63 to 1.34) when adjusted for body mass index.Conclusions: We see no relation between prenatal famine and adult CAD, Framingham risk, or any ECG predictors of increased cardiac disease risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Stroke symptoms among individuals reporting no physician diagnosis of stroke are associated with an increased risk of future stroke. Few studies have assessed whether individuals with diabetes or prediabetes, but no physician diagnosis of stroke, have an increased prevalence of stroke symptoms.Research Design and Methods: This study included 25,696 individuals aged ≥ 45 years from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study who reported no history of stroke or transient ischemic attack at baseline (2003-2007). Glucose measurements, medication use, and self-reported physician diagnosis were used to categorize participants into diabetes, prediabetes, or normal glycemia groups. The presence of six stroke symptoms was assessed using a validated questionnaire.Results: The prevalence of any stroke symptom was higher among participants with diabetes (22.7%) compared with those with prediabetes (15.6%) or normal glycemia (14.9%). In multivariable models, diabetes was associated with any stroke symptom (prevalence odds ratio [POR] 1.28 [95% CI 1.18-1.39]) and two or more stroke symptoms (1.26 [1.12-1.43]) compared with normal glycemia. In analyses of individual stroke symptoms, diabetes was associated with numbness (1.15 [1.03-1.29]), vision loss (1.52 [1.31-1.76]), half-vision loss (1.54 [1.30-1.84]), and lost ability to understand people (1.34 [1.12-1.61]) after multivariable adjustment. No association was present between prediabetes and stroke symptoms.Conclusions: In this population-based study, almost one in four individuals with diabetes reported stroke symptoms, which suggests that screening for stroke symptoms in diabetes may be warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A United States national sample of 20,962 participants (57% women, 44% blacks) from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study provided general population estimates for electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities among black and white men and women. The participants were recruited from 2003 to 2007 by random selection from a commercially available nationwide list, with oversampling of blacks and those from the stroke belt, with a cooperation rate of 49%. The measurement of risk factors and 12-lead electrocardiograms (centrally coded using Minnesota code criteria) showed 28% had ≥1 major ECG abnormality. The prevalence of abnormalities was greater (≥35%) for those ≥65 years old, with no differences between blacks and whites. However, among men <65 years, blacks had more major abnormalities than whites, most notably for atrial fibrillation, major Q waves, and left ventricular hypertrophy. Men generally had more ECG abnormalities than women. The most common ECG abnormalities were T-wave abnormalities. The average heart rate-corrected QT interval was longer in women than in men, similar in whites and blacks, and increased with age. However, the average heart rate was greater in women than in men and in blacks than in whites and decreased with age. The prevalence of ECG abnormalities was related to the presence of hypertension, diabetes, blood pressure, and age. In conclusion, black men and women in the United States have a significantly greater prevalence of ECG abnormalities than white men and women at age 45 to 64 years; however, these proportions, although larger, tended to equalize or reverse after age 65. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: It remains debated whether to include resting electrocardiogram (ECG) in the routine care of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients.Methods: This analysis included 4518 HIV-infected patients (28% women and 29% blacks) from the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy study, a clinical trial aimed to compare 2 HIV treatment strategies. ECG abnormalities were classified using the Minnesota Code. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to examine the association between baseline ECG abnormalities and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD).Results: More than half of the participants (n = 2325, or 51.5%) had either minor or major ECG abnormalities. Minor ECG abnormalities (48.6%) were more common than major ECG abnormalities (7.7%). During a median follow-up of 28.7 months, 155 participants (3.4%) developed incident CVD. After adjusting for the study-treatment arms, the presence of major, minor, and either minor or major ECG abnormalities was significantly predictive of incident CVD (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 2.76 [1.74-4.39], P < .001; 1.58 [1.14-2.20], P = .006; 1.57 [1.14-2.18], P = .006, respectively). However, after adjusting for demographics, CVD risk factors, and HIV characteristics (full model), presence of major ECG abnormalities were still significantly predictive of CVD (1.83 [1.12-2.97], P = .015) but not minor or major abnormalities taken together (1.26 [0.89-1.79], P = .18; 1.25 [0.89-1.76], P = .20, respectively). Individual ECG abnormalities that significantly predicted CVD in the fully adjusted model included major isolated ST-T abnormalities, major prolongation of QT interval, minor isolated ST-T, and minor isolated Q-QS abnormalities.Conclusion: Nearly 1 in 2 of the HIV-infected patients in our study had ECG abnormalities; 1 in 13 had major ECG abnormalities. Presence of ECG abnormalities, especially major ECG abnormalities, was independently predictive of incident CVD. These results suggest that the ECG could provide a convenient risk-screening tool in HIV-infected patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND- Simultaneous contribution of hundreds of electrocardiographic (ECG) biomarkers to prediction of long-term mortality in postmenopausal women with clinically normal resting ECGs is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS- We analyzed ECGs and all-cause mortality in 33 144 women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative trials who were without baseline cardiovascular disease or cancer and had normal ECGs by Minnesota and Novacode criteria. Four hundred and seventy-seven ECG biomarkers, encompassing global and individual ECG findings, were measured with computer algorithms. During a median follow-up of 8.1 years (range for survivors, 0.5 to 11.2 years), 1229 women died. For analyses, the cohort was randomly split into derivation (n=22 096; deaths, 819) and validation (n=11 048; deaths, 410) subsets. ECG biomarkers and demographic and clinical characteristics were simultaneously analyzed using both traditional Cox regression and random survival forest, a novel algorithmic machine-learning approach. Regression modeling failed to converge. Random survival forest variable selection yielded 20 variables that were independently predictive of long-term mortality, 14 of which were ECG biomarkers related to autonomic tone, atrial conduction, and ventricular depolarization and repolarization. CONCLUSIONS- We identified 14 ECG biomarkers from among hundreds that were associated with long-term prognosis using a novel random forest variable selection methodology. These biomarkers were related to autonomic tone, atrial conduction, ventricular depolarization, and ventricular repolarization. Quantitative ECG biomarkers have prognostic importance and may be markers of subclinical disease in apparently healthy postmenopausal women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Among persons treated for hypertension, Blacks are more likely to have uncontrolled blood pressure compared to Whites. Few studies have focused on trust in physicians as a potential contributor to this disparity in blood pressure (BP) control. The primary objective of this study was to assess the relationship between trust in physicians and blood pressure control among Blacks and Whites being treated for hypertension.Design: Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data collected from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort, a US national, population-based cohort study. Participants were recruited by telephone from 2003-2007, completed a telephone survey, and had BP measured during an in-home visit.Participants: 2843 Black and White adults aged > 45 years with treated hypertension.Main Outcome Measures: Uncontrolled blood pressure was defined as systolic blood pressure > 140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure > 90 mm Hg. For participants with diabetes, renal disease, or self-reported previous myocardial infarction, uncontrolled blood pressure was defined as systolic blood pressure > 130 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure > 80 mm Hg.Results: Trust in physicians was not associated with uncontrolled blood pressure in either unadjusted (odd ratio [OR] 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI) 0.92, 1.25) or adjusted analyses (OR 0.97; 0.83, 1.14). Both Black race (OR 1.58; 1.36, 1.84) and imperfect medication adherence (OR 1.56; 1.31,1.86) were associated with higher odds of uncontrolled blood pressure.Conclusions: Trust in physicians was not related to blood pressure control among Blacks and Whites with treated hypertension in this sample. The racial disparity in blood pressure control was not completely explained by trust in physicians or medication adherence, and a better understanding of the mechanisms leading to this disparity is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Metabolic neuropathophysiology underlying the prediabetic state may confer susceptibility to the adverse health effects of ambient particulate matter <10 mum in diameter (PM(10)). The authors therefore examined whether impaired glucose homeostasis modifies the effect of PM(10) on heart rate variability in a stratified, random sample of 4,295 Women's Health Initiative clinical trial participants, among whom electrocardiograms and fasting blood draws were repeated at 3-year intervals from 1993 to 2004. In multilevel, mixed models weighted for sampling design and adjusted for clinical and environmental covariables, PM(10) exposure was inversely associated with heart rate variability. Inverse PM(10)-heart rate variability associations were strongest for the root mean square of successive differences in normal-to-normal RR intervals (RMSSD). Among participants with impaired fasting glucose, there were -8.3% (95% confidence interval: -13.9, -2.4) versus -0.6% (95% confidence interval: -2.4, 1.3), -8.4% (95% confidence interval: -13.8, -2.7) versus -0.3% (95% confidence interval: -2.1, 1.6), and -4.3% (95% confidence interval: -9.4, 1.0) versus -0.8% (95% confidence interval: -2.7, 1.0) decreases in the RMSSD per 10-mug/m(3) increase in PM(10) at high versus low levels of insulin (P < 0.01), insulin resistance (P < 0.01), and glucose (P = 0.16), respectively. These associations were stronger among participants with diabetes and weaker among those without diabetes or impaired fasting glucose. The findings suggest that insulin and insulin resistance exacerbate the adverse effect of PM(10) on cardiac autonomic control and thus risk of coronary heart disease among nondiabetic, postmenopausal women with impaired fasting glucose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether implementation of a multicomponent organizational intervention can produce significant change in diabetes care and outcomes in community primary care practices.Research Design and Methods: This was a group-randomized, controlled clinical trial evaluating the practical effectiveness of a multicomponent intervention (TRANSLATE) in 24 practices. The intervention included implementation of an electronic diabetes registry, visit reminders, and patient-specific physician alerts. A site coordinator facilitated previsit planning and a monthly review of performance with a local physician champion. The principle outcomes were the percentage of patients achieving target values for the composite of systolic blood pressure (SBP) <130 mmHg, LDL cholesterol <100 mg/dl, and A1C <7.0% at baseline and 12 months. Six process measures were also followed.Results: Over 24 months, 69,965 visits from 8,405 adult patients with type 2 diabetes were recorded from 238 health care providers in 24 practices from 17 health systems. Diabetes process measures increased significantly more in intervention than in control practices, giving net increases as follows: foot examinations 35.0% (P < 0.0.001); annual eye examinations 25.9% (P < 0.001); renal testing 28.5% (P < 0.001); A1C testing 8.1%(P < 0.001); blood pressure monitoring 3.5% (P = 0.05); and LDL testing 8.6% (P < 0.001). Mean A1C adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidity decreased significantly in intervention practices (P < 0.02). At 12 months, intervention practices had significantly greater improvement in achieving recommended clinical values for SBP, A1C, and LDL than control clinics (P = 0.002).Conclusions: Introduction of a multicomponent organizational intervention in the primary care setting significantly increases the percentage of type 2 diabetic patients achieving recommended clinical outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Black individuals younger than 75 years have more than twice the risk for stroke death than whites in the United States. Regardless of race, stroke death is approximately 50% greater in the "stroke belt" and "stroke buckle" states of the Southeastern United States. We assessed geographic and racial differences in estimated 10-year stroke risk.Methods: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study is a population-based cohort of men and women 45 years or older, recruited February 2003 to September 2007 at this report, with oversampling of stroke belt/buckle residents and blacks. Racial and regional differences in the Framingham Stroke Risk Score were studied in 23,940 participants without previous stroke or transient ischemic attack.Results: The mean age-, race-, and sex-adjusted 10-year predicted stroke probability differed slightly across regions: 10.7% in the belt, 10.4% in the buckle, and 10.1% elsewhere (p <0.001). Geographic differences were largest for the score components of diabetes and use of antihypertensive therapy. Blacks had a greater age- and sex-adjusted mean 10-year predicted stroke probability than whites: 12.0 versus 9.2%, respectively (p <0.001). Race differences were largest for the score components of hypertension, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, and left ventricular hypertrophy.Interpretation: Although blacks had a greater predicted stroke probability than whites, regional differences were small. Results suggest that interventions to reduce racial disparities in stroke risk factors hold promise to reduce the racial disparity in stroke mortality. The same may not be true regarding geographic disparities in stroke mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Autonomic nervous system dysfunction, a correlate of obesity and poor cardiorespiratory fitness, is associated with the development of diabetes. We tested whether estimates of autonomic nervous system function improved in the intensive lifestyle versus metformin or placebo arms of the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) and whether baseline or a change in autonomic nervous system function was associated with the development of diabetes over 3.2 years.Research Design and Methods: In 2,980 DPP participants, 12-lead electrocardiograms were measured at baseline and annually. Heart rate, heart rate variability (HRV), and QT duration were used to estimate fitness and autonomic nervous system function.Results: In the lifestyle arm, heart rate and QT indexes decreased, and HRV increased over time. The magnitude of decline in heart rate and QT duration was substantially smaller in the other arms, whereas HRV did not increase. Baseline heart rate was the only index significantly (P < 0.05) associated with incident diabetes after adjustment for demographics and weight change (hazard ratio for lifestyle and metformin arms = 1.19 and 1.17 per 10.6 beats/min, respectively). Decreases in heart rate and QT indexes and increases in HRV over time were associated with a lower risk of developing diabetes. The protective association between decreased heart rate and incident diabetes in the lifestyle arm remained significant after accounting for change in weight and physical activity.Conclusions: Indexes that reflect autonomic function and fitness improved (i.e., heart rate decreased and HRV increased) in the lifestyle modification arm of the DPP. Improvements in these indexes are inversely associated with the development of diabetes independent of weight change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Minor electrocardiographic (ECG) ST-T abnormalities are common, but their prognostic importance has not been fully determined.Objective: To examine associations of single (1 time only) and multiple (2 times only and > or =3 times) nonspecific minor ST-T abnormalities in 5 years with long-term mortality due to myocardial infarction (MI), coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all causes in middle-aged men.Design: Prospective cohort study (29-year follow-up after 5 annual examinations).Setting and Participants: A total of 1673 men employed at the Western Electric Company in Chicago, III, aged 40 to 55 years at entry, with no evidence of CHD and no major ECG abnormalities throughout the first 5-year period.Main Outcome Measures: Minor ST-T abnormalities identified from annual resting ECGs and mortality ascertained from death certificates.Results: Of the 1673 men, 173 had evidence of isolated nonspecific minor ST-T segment abnormalities. During the follow-up period, there were 234 deaths due to MI, 352 deaths due to CHD, 463 deaths due to CVD, and 889 deaths due to all causes. For men with 3 or more annual recordings of minor ST-T abnormalities, risk of death due to MI, CHD, CVD, and all causes was significantly greater than for those with normal ECG findings. For men with 3 or more ECGs with minor ST-T abnormalities, relative risks (and 95% confidence intervals) adjusted for cardiovascular and other risk factors were 2.28 (1.16-4.49), 2.39 (1.39-4.12), 2.30 (1.44-3.68), and 1.60 (1.06-2.42), respectively, with a graded relationship between frequency of occurrence of ST-T abnormalities and mortality risk (linear trend, P< or =.007).Conclusions: Persistent, minor, nonspecific ST-T abnormalities are associated with increased long-term risk of mortality due to MI, CHD, CVD, and all causes; the higher the frequency of occurrence of minor ST-T abnormalities, the greater the risk. These data underscore the potential value of including nonspecific ECG findings in the overall assessment of cardiovascular risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Isolated minor nonspecific ST-segment and T-wave abnormalities (NSSTAs), minor and major electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are established, independent risk markers for incident cardiovascular events. Their association with subclinical atherosclerosis has been postulated but is not clearly defined. The aim of this study was to define the association between ECG abnormalities and measurements of subclinical atherosclerosis. We studied participants from MESA, a multiethnic sample of men and women 45 to 84 years of age and free of clinical cardiovascular disease at enrollment. Baseline examination included measurement of traditional risk factors, 12-lead electrocardiograms at rest, coronary artery calcium (CAC) measurement, and common carotid intima-media thickness (CC-IMT). Electrocardiograms were coded using Novacode criteria and were defined as having minor abnormalities (e.g., minor NSSTTAs, first-degree atrioventricular block, and QRS-axis deviations) or major abnormalities (e.g., pathologic Q waves, major STTAs, significant dysrhythmias, and conduction system delays). Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were used to determine cross-sectional associations of ECG abnormalities with CAC and CC-IMT. Of 6,710 participants, 52.7% were women, with a mean age of 62 years. After multivariable adjustment, isolated minor STTAs and minor and major ECG abnormalities were not associated with presence of CAC (>0) in men (odds ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.33; 1.10, 0.91 to 1.32; and 1.03, 0.81 to 1.31, respectively) or women (1.01, 0.82 to 1.24; 1.04, 0.87 to 1.23; and 0.94, 0.73 to 1.22, respectively). Lack of association remained consistent when using log CAC and CC-IMT as continuous variables. In conclusion, ECG abnormalities are not associated with markers of subclinical atherosclerosis in a large multiethnic cohort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Geographic variation in risk factors may underlie geographic disparities in coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality.Methods: Framingham CHD Risk Score (FCRS) and Stroke Risk Score (FSRS) were calculated for 25,770 stroke-free and 22,247 CHD-free participants from the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke cohort. Vital statistics provided age-adjusted CHD and stroke mortality rates. In an ecologic analysis, the age-adjusted, race-sex weighted, average state-level risk factor levels were compared to state-level mortality rates.Results: There was no relationship between CHD and stroke mortality rates (r=0.04; p=0.78), but there was between CHD and stroke risk scores at the individual (r=0.68; p<0.0001) and state (r=0.64, p<0.0001) level. There was a stronger (p<0.0001) association between state-level FCRS and state-level CHD mortality (r=0.28, p=0.18), than between FSRS and stroke mortality (r=0.12, p=0.56).Conclusions: Weak associations between CHD and stroke mortality and strong associations between CHD and stroke risk scores suggest that geographic variation in risk factors may not underlie geographic variations in stroke and CHD mortality. The relationship between risk factor scores and mortality was stronger for CHD than stroke. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In high-income countries, cancer is the leading cause of death among middle-aged adults. Prospective data on the effects of childhood risk exposures on subsequent cancer mortality are scarce., Methods: We examined whether childhood body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, glucose and lipid levels were associated with adult cancer mortality, using data from 21,012 children enrolled aged 3-19 years in seven prospective cohort studies from the U.S., Australia, and Finland that have followed participants from childhood into adulthood. Cancer mortality (cancer as a primary or secondary cause of death) was captured using registries., Results: 354 cancer deaths occurred over the follow-up. In age-, sex, and cohort-adjusted analyses, childhood BMI (Hazard ratio [HR], 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.24 per 1-SD increase) and childhood glucose (HR 1.22; 95%CI 1.01-1.47 per 1-SD increase), were associated with subsequent cancer mortality. In a multivariable analysis adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and childhood measures of fasting glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure, childhood BMI remained as an independent predictor of subsequent cancer mortality (HR, 1.24; 95%CI, 1.03-1.49). The association of childhood BMI and subsequent cancer mortality persisted after adjustment for adulthood BMI (HR for childhood BMI, 1.35; 95%CI 1.12-1.63)., Conclusions: Higher childhood BMI was independently associated with increased overall cancer mortality., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Objective: To examine childhood BMI, fasting glucose, and insulin in relation to incident adult type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)., Research Design and Methods: We used data from the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) Consortium. Data included childhood (age 3-19 years) measurements obtained during the 1970s-1990s; a health questionnaire, including self-report of adult T2DM (occurrence age, medication use) obtained at mean age 40 years; and a medical diagnosis registry (Finland)., Results: The sample included 6,738 participants. Of these, 436 (6.5%) reported onset of T2DM between ages 20 and 59 (mean 40.8) years, and 86% of them reported use of a confirmed antidiabetic medication. BMI and glucose (age and sex standardized) were associated with incident T2DM after adjustment for cohort, country, sex, race, age, and calendar year of measurement. Increasing levels of childhood BMI and glucose were related to an incrementally increased risk of T2DM beginning at age 30 years, beginning at cut points <95th percentile for BMI and <100 mg/dL for glucose. Insulin was positively associated with adult T2DM after adjustment for BMI and glucose and added to T2DM discrimination., Conclusions: Childhood BMI and glucose are predictors of adult T2DM at levels previously considered to be within the normal range. These easy-to-apply measurements are appealing from a clinical perspective. Fasting insulin has the potential to be an additional predictor., (© 2020 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background and Objectives: Adult class II/III obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m 2 ) has significant adverse health outcomes. Early prevention and treatment are critical, but prospective childhood risk estimates are lacking. This study aimed to define the prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity, using childhood BMI., Methods: Children ages 3-19 years enrolled in cohorts of the International Childhood Cardiovascular Cohort (i3C) consortium with measured BMI assessments in childhood and adulthood were included. Prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity was modeled based on childhood age, sex, race, and BMI., Results: A total of 12,142 individuals (44% male, 85% white) were assessed at median age 14 [Interquartile range, IQR: 11, 16] and 33 [28, 39] years. Class II/III adult obesity developed in 6% of children with normal weight; 29% of children with overweight; 56% of children with obesity; and 80% of children with severe obesity. However, 38% of the 1440 adults with class II/III obesity (553/1440) were normal weight as children. Prospective risk of adult class II/III obesity varied by age, sex, and race within childhood weight status classifications, and is notably higher for girls, black participants, and those in the United States. The risk of class II/III obesity increased with older adult age., Conclusions: Children with obesity or severe obesity have a substantial risk of adult class II/III obesity, and observed prospective risk estimates are now presented by age, sex, race, and childhood BMI. Clinical monitoring of children's BMI for adult class II/III obesity risk may be especially important for females and black Americans.