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Abstract Modelling of solar irradiation is paramount to renewable energy management. This warrants the inclusion of additive effects to predict solar irradiation. Modelling of additive effects to solar irradiation can improve the forecasting accuracy of prediction frameworks. To help develop the frameworks, this current study modelled the additive effects using non-parametric quantile regression (QR). The approach applies quantile splines to approximate non-parametric components when finding the best relationships between covariates and the response variable. However, some additive effects are perceived as linear. Thus, the study included the partial linearly additive quantile regression model (PLAQR) in the quest to find how best the additive effects can be modelled. As a result, a comparative investigation on the forecasting performances of the PLAQR, an additive quantile regression (AQR) model and the new quantile generalised additive model (QGAM) using out-of-sample and probabilistic forecasting metric evaluations was done. Forecasted density plots, Murphy diagrams and results from the Diebold–Mariano (DM) hypothesis test were also analysed. The density plot, the curves on the Murphy diagram and most metric scores computed for the QGAM were slightly better than for the PLAQR and AQR models. That is, even though the DM test indicates that the PLAQR and AQR models are less accurate than the QGAM, we could not conclude an outright greater forecasting performance of the QGAM than the PLAQR or AQR models. However, in situations of probabilistic forecasting metric preferences, each model can be prioritised to be applied to the metric where it performed slightly the best. The three models performed differently in different locations, but the location was not a significant factor in their performances. In contrast, forecasting horizon and sample size influenced model performance differently in the three additive models. The performance variations also depended on the metric being evaluated. Therefore, the study has established the best forecasting horizons and sample sizes for the different metrics. It was finally concluded that a 20% forecasting horizon and a minimum sample size of 10000 data points are ideal when modelling additive effects of solar irradiation using non-parametric QR.

Dimensionality poses a challenge in developing quality predictive models. Often when modelling solar irradiance (SI), many covariates are considered. Training such data has several disadvantages. This study sought to identify the best variable embedded selection method for different location and time horizon combinations from Southern Africa solar irradiance data. It introduced new variable selection methods into solar irradiation studies, namely penalised quantile regression (PQR), regularised random forests (RRF), and quantile regression forest (QRF). Stability analysis, performance and accuracy metric evaluations were used to compare them with the common lasso, elastic and ridge regression methods. The QRF model performed best in all locations followed by the shrinkage methods on hourly data. However, it was found that QRF is not sensitive to associations through correlations, thereby ignoring the relevance of variables while focusing on importance. Among the shrinkage methods, the lasso performed best in only one location. On the 24-hour horizon, elastic net dominated the performances among the shrinkage methods, but QRF was best in three locations of the six considered. Results confirmed that variable selection methods performed differently on different situational data sets. Depending on the strengths of the methods, results were combined to identify the most paramount variables. Day, total rainfall, and wind direction were superfluous features in all situations. The study concluded that shrinkage methods are best in cases of extreme multicollinearity, while QRF is best on data sets with outliers or/and heavy tails.

Exploration of solar irradiance can greatly assist in understanding how renewable energy can be better harnessed. It helps in establishing the solar irradiance climate in a particular region for effective and efficient harvesting of solar energy. Understanding the climate provides planners, designers and investors in the solar power generation sector with critical information. However, a detailed exploration of these climatic characteristics has not yet been studied for the Southern African data. Very little exploration is being done through the use of measures of centrality only. These descriptive statistics may be misleading. As a result, we overcome limitations in the currently used deterministic models through the application of distributional modelling through quantile functions. Deterministic and stochastic elements in the data were combined and analysed simultaneously when fitting quantile distributional function models. The fitted models were then used to find population means as explorative parameters that consist of both deterministic and stochastic properties of the data. The application of QFs has been shown to be a practical tool and gives more information than approaches that focus separately on either measures of central tendency or empirical distributions. Seasonal effects were detected in the data from the whole region and can be attributed to the cyclical behaviour exhibited. Daily maximum solar irradiation is taking place within two hours of midday and monthly accumulates in summer months. Windhoek is receiving the best daily total mean, while the maximum monthly accumulated total mean is taking place in Durban. Developing separate solar irradiation models for summer and winter is highly recommended. Though robust and rigorous, quantile distributional function modelling enables exploration and understanding of all components of the behaviour of the data being studied. Therefore, a starting base for understanding Southern Africa’s solar climate was developed in this study.

A new generalized class of distributions called the Burr-Weibull Power Series (BWPS) class of distributions is developed and explored. This class of distributions generalizes the Burr power series and Weibull power series classes of distributions, respectively. A special model of the BWPS class of distributions, the new Burr-Weibull Poisson (BWP) distribution is considered and some of its mathematical properties are obtained. The BWP distribution contains several new and well known sub-models, including Burr-Weibull, Burr-exponential Poisson, Burr-exponential, Burr-Rayleigh Poisson, Burr-Rayleigh, Burr-Poisson, Burr, Lomax-exponential Poisson, Lomax-Weibull, Lomax-exponential, Lomax-Rayleigh, Lomax-Poisson, Lomax, Weibull, Rayleigh and exponential distributions. Maximum likelihood estimation technique is used to estimate the model parameters followed by a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally an application of the BWP model to a real data set is presented to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed class of distributions.