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10. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Grah, R., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandmann, F., Deuschel, J., Wolffram, D., Abbott, S., Ullrich, A., Gibson, G., Ray, E. L., Reich, N. G., Sheldon, D., Wang, Y., Wattanachit, N., Wang, L., Trnka, J., Obozinski, G., Sun, T., Thanou, D., Pottier, L., Krymova, E., Meinke, J. H., Barbarossa, M. V., Leithäuser, N., Mohring, J., Schneider, J., Wlazlo, J., Fuhrmann, J., Lange, B., Rodiah, I., Baccam, P., Gurung, H., Stage, S., Suchoski, B., Budzinski, J., Walraven, R., Villanueva, I., Tucek, V., Smíd, M., Zajícek, M., Pérez Alvarez, C., Reina, B., Bosse, N. I., Meakin, S., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Michaud, I., Osthus, D., Alaimo Di Loro, P., Maruotti, A., Eclerová, V., Kraus, A., Kraus, D., Pribylova, L., Dimitris, B., Li, M. L., Saksham, S., Dehning, J., Mohr, S., Priesemann, V., Redlarski, G., Bejar, B., Ardenghi, G., Parolini, N., Ziarelli, G., Bock, Wolfgang, Heyder, S., Hotz, T., E. Singh, D., Guzman-Merino, M., Aznarte, J. L., Moriña, D., Alonso, S., Alvarez, E., López, D., Prats, C., Burgard, J. P., Rodloff, A., Zimmermann, T., Kuhlmann, A., Zibert, J., Pennoni, F., Divino, F., Català, M., Lovison, G., Giudici, P., Tarantino, B., Bartolucci, F., Jona Lasinio, G., Mingione, M., Farcomeni, A., Srivastava, A., Montero-Manso, P., Adiga, A., Hurt, B., Lewis, B., Marathe, M., Porebski, P., Venkatramanan, S., Bartczuk, R., Dreger, F., Gambin, A., Gogolewski, K., Gruziel-S?omka, M., Krupa, B., Moszynski, A., Niedzielewski, K., Nowosielski, J., Radwan, M., Rakowski, F., Semeniuk, M., Szczurek, E., Zieli?ski, J., Kisielewski, J., Pabjan, B., Kheifetz, Y., Kirsten, H., Scholz, M., Biecek, P., Bodych, M., Filinski, M., Idzikowski, R., Krueger, T., Ozanski, T., Bracher, J., Funk, S., Sherratt, K., Gruson, H., Grah, R., Johnson, H., Niehus, R., Prasse, B., Sandmann, F., Deuschel, J., Wolffram, D., Abbott, S., Ullrich, A., Gibson, G., Ray, E. L., Reich, N. G., Sheldon, D., Wang, Y., Wattanachit, N., Wang, L., Trnka, J., Obozinski, G., Sun, T., Thanou, D., Pottier, L., Krymova, E., Meinke, J. H., Barbarossa, M. V., Leithäuser, N., Mohring, J., Schneider, J., Wlazlo, J., Fuhrmann, J., Lange, B., Rodiah, I., Baccam, P., Gurung, H., Stage, S., Suchoski, B., Budzinski, J., Walraven, R., Villanueva, I., Tucek, V., Smíd, M., Zajícek, M., Pérez Alvarez, C., Reina, B., Bosse, N. I., Meakin, S., Castro, L., Fairchild, G., Michaud, I., Osthus, D., Alaimo Di Loro, P., Maruotti, A., Eclerová, V., Kraus, A., Kraus, D., Pribylova, L., Dimitris, B., Li, M. L., Saksham, S., Dehning, J., Mohr, S., Priesemann, V., Redlarski, G., Bejar, B., Ardenghi, G., Parolini, N., Ziarelli, G., Bock, Wolfgang, Heyder, S., Hotz, T., E. Singh, D., Guzman-Merino, M., Aznarte, J. L., Moriña, D., Alonso, S., Alvarez, E., López, D., Prats, C., Burgard, J. P., Rodloff, A., Zimmermann, T., Kuhlmann, A., Zibert, J., Pennoni, F., Divino, F., Català, M., Lovison, G., Giudici, P., Tarantino, B., Bartolucci, F., Jona Lasinio, G., Mingione, M., Farcomeni, A., Srivastava, A., Montero-Manso, P., Adiga, A., Hurt, B., Lewis, B., Marathe, M., Porebski, P., Venkatramanan, S., Bartczuk, R., Dreger, F., Gambin, A., Gogolewski, K., Gruziel-S?omka, M., Krupa, B., Moszynski, A., Niedzielewski, K., Nowosielski, J., Radwan, M., Rakowski, F., Semeniuk, M., Szczurek, E., Zieli?ski, J., Kisielewski, J., Pabjan, B., Kheifetz, Y., Kirsten, H., Scholz, M., Biecek, P., Bodych, M., Filinski, M., Idzikowski, R., Krueger, T., Ozanski, T., Bracher, J., and Funk, S.

Abstract

Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast mod

Published
2023
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11. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K, Gruson, H, Grah, R, Johnson, H, Niehus, R, Prasse, B, Sandmann, F, Deuschel, J, Wolffram, D, Abbott, S, Ullrich, A, Gibson, G, L Ray, E, G Reich, N, Sheldon, D, Wang, Y, Wattanachit, N, Wang, L, Trnka, J, Obozinski, G, Sun, T, Thanou, D, Pottier, L, Krymova, E, H Meinke, J, Vittoria Barbarossa, M, Leithäuser, N, Mohring, J, Schneider, J, Włazło, J, Fuhrmann, J, Lange, B, Rodiah, I, Baccam, P, Gurung, H, Stage, S, Suchoski, B, Budzinski, J, Walraven, R, Villanueva, I, Tucek, V, Smid, M, Zajíček, M, Pérez Álvarez, C, Reina, B, I Bosse, N, R Meakin, S, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Michaud, I, Osthus, D, Alaimo Di Loro, P, Maruotti, A, Eclerová, V, Kraus, A, Kraus, D, Pribylova, L, Dimitris, B, Lingzhi Li, M, Saksham, S, Dehning, J, Mohr, S, Priesemann, V, Redlarski, G, Bejar, B, Ardenghi, G, Parolini, N, Ziarelli, G, Bock, W, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, E Singh, D, Guzman-Merino, M, L Aznarte, J, Moriña, D, Alonso, S, Álvarez, E, López, D, Prats, C, Pablo Burgard, J, Rodloff, A, Zimmermann, T, Kuhlmann, A, Zibert, J, Pennoni, F, Divino, F, Català, M, Lovison, G, Giudici, P, Tarantino, B, Bartolucci, F, Jona Lasinio, G, Mingione, M, Farcomeni, A, Srivastava, A, Montero-Manso, P, Adiga, A, Hurt, B, Lewis, B, Marathe, M, Porebski, P, Venkatramanan, S, P Bartczuk, R, Dreger, F, Gambin, A, Gogolewski, K, Gruziel-Słomka, M, Krupa, B, Moszyński, A, Niedzielewski, K, Nowosielski, J, Radwan, M, Rakowski, F, Semeniuk, M, Szczurek, E, Zieliński, J, Kisielewski, J, Pabjan, B, Kirsten, H, Kheifetz, Y, Scholz, M, Biecek, P, Bodych, M, Filinski, M, Idzikowski, R, Krueger, T, Ozanski, T, Bracher, J, Funk, S, Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithäuser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Włazło, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajíček, Cesar Pérez Álvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerová, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Moriña, Sergio Alonso, Enric Álvarez, Daniel López, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Català, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zieliński, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Holger Kirsten, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Przemyslaw Biecek, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, Sebastian Funk, Sherratt, K, Gruson, H, Grah, R, Johnson, H, Niehus, R, Prasse, B, Sandmann, F, Deuschel, J, Wolffram, D, Abbott, S, Ullrich, A, Gibson, G, L Ray, E, G Reich, N, Sheldon, D, Wang, Y, Wattanachit, N, Wang, L, Trnka, J, Obozinski, G, Sun, T, Thanou, D, Pottier, L, Krymova, E, H Meinke, J, Vittoria Barbarossa, M, Leithäuser, N, Mohring, J, Schneider, J, Włazło, J, Fuhrmann, J, Lange, B, Rodiah, I, Baccam, P, Gurung, H, Stage, S, Suchoski, B, Budzinski, J, Walraven, R, Villanueva, I, Tucek, V, Smid, M, Zajíček, M, Pérez Álvarez, C, Reina, B, I Bosse, N, R Meakin, S, Castro, L, Fairchild, G, Michaud, I, Osthus, D, Alaimo Di Loro, P, Maruotti, A, Eclerová, V, Kraus, A, Kraus, D, Pribylova, L, Dimitris, B, Lingzhi Li, M, Saksham, S, Dehning, J, Mohr, S, Priesemann, V, Redlarski, G, Bejar, B, Ardenghi, G, Parolini, N, Ziarelli, G, Bock, W, Heyder, S, Hotz, T, E Singh, D, Guzman-Merino, M, L Aznarte, J, Moriña, D, Alonso, S, Álvarez, E, López, D, Prats, C, Pablo Burgard, J, Rodloff, A, Zimmermann, T, Kuhlmann, A, Zibert, J, Pennoni, F, Divino, F, Català, M, Lovison, G, Giudici, P, Tarantino, B, Bartolucci, F, Jona Lasinio, G, Mingione, M, Farcomeni, A, Srivastava, A, Montero-Manso, P, Adiga, A, Hurt, B, Lewis, B, Marathe, M, Porebski, P, Venkatramanan, S, P Bartczuk, R, Dreger, F, Gambin, A, Gogolewski, K, Gruziel-Słomka, M, Krupa, B, Moszyński, A, Niedzielewski, K, Nowosielski, J, Radwan, M, Rakowski, F, Semeniuk, M, Szczurek, E, Zieliński, J, Kisielewski, J, Pabjan, B, Kirsten, H, Kheifetz, Y, Scholz, M, Biecek, P, Bodych, M, Filinski, M, Idzikowski, R, Krueger, T, Ozanski, T, Bracher, J, Funk, S, Katharine Sherratt, Hugo Gruson, Rok Grah, Helen Johnson, Rene Niehus, Bastian Prasse, Frank Sandmann, Jannik Deuschel, Daniel Wolffram, Sam Abbott, Alexander Ullrich, Graham Gibson, Evan L Ray, Nicholas G Reich, Daniel Sheldon, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Lijing Wang, Jan Trnka, Guillaume Obozinski, Tao Sun, Dorina Thanou, Loic Pottier, Ekaterina Krymova, Jan H Meinke, Maria Vittoria Barbarossa, Neele Leithäuser, Jan Mohring, Johanna Schneider, Jaroslaw Włazło, Jan Fuhrmann, Berit Lange, Isti Rodiah, Prasith Baccam, Heidi Gurung, Steven Stage, Bradley Suchoski, Jozef Budzinski, Robert Walraven, Inmaculada Villanueva, Vit Tucek, Martin Smid, Milan Zajíček, Cesar Pérez Álvarez, Borja Reina, Nikos I Bosse, Sophie R Meakin, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dave Osthus, Pierfrancesco Alaimo Di Loro, Antonello Maruotti, Veronika Eclerová, Andrea Kraus, David Kraus, Lenka Pribylova, Bertsimas Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Soni Saksham, Jonas Dehning, Sebastian Mohr, Viola Priesemann, Grzegorz Redlarski, Benjamin Bejar, Giovanni Ardenghi, Nicola Parolini, Giovanni Ziarelli, Wolfgang Bock, Stefan Heyder, Thomas Hotz, David E Singh, Miguel Guzman-Merino, Jose L Aznarte, David Moriña, Sergio Alonso, Enric Álvarez, Daniel López, Clara Prats, Jan Pablo Burgard, Arne Rodloff, Tom Zimmermann, Alexander Kuhlmann, Janez Zibert, Fulvia Pennoni, Fabio Divino, Marti Català, Gianfranco Lovison, Paolo Giudici, Barbara Tarantino, Francesco Bartolucci, Giovanna Jona Lasinio, Marco Mingione, Alessio Farcomeni, Ajitesh Srivastava, Pablo Montero-Manso, Aniruddha Adiga, Benjamin Hurt, Bryan Lewis, Madhav Marathe, Przemyslaw Porebski, Srinivasan Venkatramanan, Rafal P Bartczuk, Filip Dreger, Anna Gambin, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Magdalena Gruziel-Słomka, Bartosz Krupa, Antoni Moszyński, Karol Niedzielewski, Jedrzej Nowosielski, Maciej Radwan, Franciszek Rakowski, Marcin Semeniuk, Ewa Szczurek, Jakub Zieliński, Jan Kisielewski, Barbara Pabjan, Holger Kirsten, Yuri Kheifetz, Markus Scholz, Przemyslaw Biecek, Marcin Bodych, Maciej Filinski, Radoslaw Idzikowski, Tyll Krueger, Tomasz Ozanski, Johannes Bracher, and Sebastian Funk

Abstract

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease contribute to situational awareness and capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise forecasts’ predictive performance by combining independent models into an ensemble. Here we report the performance of ensemble predictions of COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe from March 2021 to March 2022. Methods: We created the European COVID-19 Forecast Hub, an online open-access platform where modellers upload weekly forecasts for 32 countries with results publicly visualised and evaluated. We created a weekly ensemble forecast from the equally-weighted average across individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured forecast accuracy using a baseline and relative Weighted Interval Score (rWIS). We retrospectively explored ensemble methods, including weighting by past performance. Results: We collected weekly forecasts from 48 models, of which we evaluated 29 models alongside the ensemble model. The ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time, performing better on rWIS than 91% of forecasts for deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models), and 83% forecasts for cases (N=886 predictions from 23 models). Performance remained stable over a 4-week horizon for death forecasts but declined with longer horizons for cases. Among ensemble methods, the most influential choice came from using a median average instead of the mean, regardless of weighting component models. Conclusions: Our results support combining independent models into an ensemble forecast to improve epidemiological predictions, and suggest that median averages yield better performance than methods based on means. We highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than case forecasts at horizons greater than two weeks. Funding: European Commission, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, FEDER; Ag

Published
2023

16. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children in western countries: decreasing incidence as the pandemic progresses? An observational multicenter international cross-sectional study

Author

Buonsenso, D., Perramon, A., Catala, M., Torres, J.P., Camacho-Moreno, G., Rojas-Solano, M., Ulloa-Gutierrez, R., Camacho-Badilla, K., Perez-Corrales, C., Cotugno, N., Yamazaki-Nakashimada, M.A., Estripeaut, D., Buddingh, E.P., Asmuth, E. von, Rossum, A.M.C. van, Soler-Palacin, P., Riviere, J.G., Prats, C., Pino, R., Paredes-Carmona, F., Visa-Rene, N., Garcia-Salido, A., Martinez-Mejias, A., Soriano-Arandes, A., COPEDI-CAT Res Grp, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Doctorat en Física Computacional i Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. Departament de Física, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. BIOCOM-SC - Biologia Computacional i Sistemes Complexos, Medical Microbiology & Infectious Diseases, and Pediatrics

Subjects
Microbiology (medical), COVID-19 Vaccines, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Infeccions respiratòries, Settore MED/38, Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome, COVID-19--nursing, Cross-Sectional Studies, Infectious Diseases, children, SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being, multisystemic inflammatory syndrome in children, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health, Ciències de la salut::Medicina::Medicina comunitària i salut pública [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], incidence, Humans, epidemiology, Child, Covid-19, Pandemics
Abstract

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 variations as well as immune protection after previous infections and/or vaccination may have altered the incidence of multisystemic inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C). We aimed to report an international time-series analysis of the incidence of MIS-C to determine if there was a shift in the regions or countries included into the study. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international, cross-sectional study. We collected the MIS-C incidence from the participant regions and countries for the period July 2020 to November 2021. We assessed the ratio between MIS-C cases and COVID-19 pediatric cases in children

Published
2022

18. List of Contributors

Author

Aas, M., primary, Abalo, R., additional, Abdel-Salam, O.M.E., additional, Abilio, V.C., additional, Adelli, G.R., additional, Ahmed, M.H., additional, Alhouayek, M., additional, Allen, J., additional, Allsop, D.J., additional, Almada, R.C., additional, Almeida, V., additional, Aloway, A., additional, Amanullah, S., additional, Ames, S.L., additional, Annaheim, B., additional, Appendino, G., additional, Aramaki, H., additional, Arias-Horcajadas, F., additional, Ariza, C., additional, Arnold, J.C., additional, Asmaro, D., additional, Auwärter, V., additional, Bachmann, S., additional, Baker, A., additional, Balter, R.E., additional, Baraldi, P.G., additional, Barber, P.A., additional, Barbería, E., additional, Bar-Sela, G., additional, Bastiani, L., additional, Basu, D., additional, Basurte, I., additional, Beck, O., additional, Behrendt, S., additional, Bergen-Cico, D., additional, Berrendero, F., additional, Bhagav, P., additional, Bhattacharyya, S., additional, Bioque, M., additional, Bolkent, S., additional, Boman, J.H., additional, Bondallaz, P., additional, Bonnet, U., additional, Borges, R.S., additional, Borowiak, K., additional, Boschi, I., additional, Brents, L.K., additional, Bridts, C.H., additional, Bruno, A., additional, Burrows, B.T., additional, Busatto, G.F., additional, Callaghan, R.C., additional, Campos, A.C., additional, Camsari, U.M., additional, Canfield, A., additional, Carra, E., additional, Carrillo-Salinas, F.-J., additional, Cascini, F., additional, Castelli, M.P., additional, Cawich, S.O., additional, Cawston, E.E., additional, Cedro, C., additional, Chagas, M.H.N., additional, Chen, C., additional, Chisari, C., additional, Chtioui, H., additional, Cico, R.D., additional, Ciechomska, I.A., additional, Coimbra, N.C., additional, Cole, J., additional, Cookey, J., additional, Copeland, J., additional, Coskun, Z.M., additional, Crano, W.D., additional, Crippa, J.A.S., additional, Crocker, C.E., additional, Cuesta, M.J., additional, Cunha, P.J., additional, Cutando, L., additional, da Silva, A.B.F., additional, da Silva, J.A., additional, da Silva, V.K., additional, Dan, D., additional, De Boni, R.B., additional, Rodríguez de Fonseca, F., additional, Gómez de Heras, R., additional, de Oliveira, A.C.P., additional, de Souza Crippa, A.C., additional, de Souza Crippa, J.A., additional, Degenhardt, F., additional, Degenhardt, L., additional, Deiana, S., additional, Deonarine, U., additional, Di Forti, M., additional, dos Anjos-Garcia, T., additional, Guimarães dos Santos, R., additional, Drozd, M., additional, Duran, F.L.S., additional, Earleywine, M., additional, Ebo, D.G., additional, Egashira, N., additional, Egnatios, J., additional, Ellert-Miklaszewska, A., additional, ElShebiney, S.A., additional, ElSohly, M.A., additional, Evren, C., additional, Fañanás, L., additional, Faber, M.M., additional, Farag, S., additional, Farré, A., additional, Farré, M., additional, Fatjó-Vilas, M., additional, Favrat, B., additional, Feingold, D., additional, Feliú, A., additional, Fernández, A.A., additional, Fernández-Artamendi, S., additional, Ferrari, A.J., additional, Ferraro, L., additional, Fichna, J., additional, Finlay, D.B., additional, Fiz, J., additional, Flores, Á., additional, Fogel, J.S., additional, Fornari, E., additional, Fortunato, L., additional, Fyfe, T., additional, Gaafar, A.E.D.M., additional, Gade, S., additional, Gaffal, E., additional, Galal, A.F., additional, Gandhi, R., additional, Gates, P., additional, Gatley, J.M., additional, Giroud, C., additional, Glass, M., additional, Goldberg, S.R., additional, González-Ortega, I., additional, González-Pinto, A., additional, Guaza, C., additional, Guillon, V., additional, Guimarães, F.S., additional, Gul, W., additional, Guven, F.M., additional, Hall, W.D., additional, Hallak, J.E.C., additional, Hamerle, M., additional, Haney, M., additional, Harding, H.E., additional, Hassan, S., additional, Haugland, K., additional, Healey, A., additional, Heck, C., additional, Helander, A., additional, Hernandez-Folgado, L., additional, Herzig, D.A., additional, Hesse, M., additional, Hill, M.G., additional, Hirst, R., additional, Hjorthøj, C.R., additional, Hoch, E., additional, Holder, M.D., additional, Holtkamp, M., additional, Hunter, M.R., additional, Ikeda, E., additional, Izumi, Y., additional, Janus, T., additional, Kaminska, B., additional, Kanaan, A.S., additional, Karinen, R., additional, Karl, T., additional, Katsu, T., additional, Kay-Lambkin, F., additional, Kayser, O., additional, Kells, M., additional, Kelly, B.C., additional, Kelly, T.H., additional, Kokona, A., additional, Kumar, A., additional, Kumar, P., additional, La Barbera, D., additional, Lagerberg, T.V., additional, Lahat, A., additional, Larsen, H.J., additional, Laun, A.S., additional, Lecomte, T., additional, Legleye, S., additional, Lev-Ran, S., additional, Lile, J.A., additional, Limberger, R.P., additional, Linares, I.M.P., additional, Lisdahl, K.M., additional, Little, M., additional, Liu, W., additional, Loflin, M.J., additional, Lorente-Omeñaca, R., additional, Lorenzetti, V., additional, Lu, D., additional, Mørland, J., additional, Müller-Vahl, K.R., additional, Machoy-Mokrzyńska, A., additional, Maeder, P., additional, Majumdar, S., additional, Maldonado, R., additional, Maple, K.E., additional, Marrón, T., additional, Martínez-Cengotitabengoa, M., additional, Martín-Fontelles, M. Isabel, additional, Martín-Santos, R., additional, Masuda, K., additional, McRae-Clark, A.L., additional, Mecha, M., additional, Medallo, J., additional, Melle, I., additional, Menahem, S., additional, Mendes-Gomes, J., additional, Mesías, B., additional, Miller, S., additional, Mizrahi, R., additional, Molinaro, S., additional, Moore, C., additional, Moraes, M.F., additional, Moreira, F.A., additional, Moreno-Izco, L., additional, Morris, H.A., additional, Muñoz, E., additional, Muccioli, G.G., additional, Muscatello, M.R.A., additional, Nada, S.A., additional, Naraynsingh, V., additional, Narimatsu, S., additional, Nogueira-Filho, G., additional, Nordentoft, M., additional, Oguz, G., additional, Øiestad, Å.M.L., additional, Øiestad, E.L., additional, Okazaki, H., additional, Olive, M.F., additional, Orio, L., additional, Ozaita, A., additional, Pérez, A., additional, Panagis, G., additional, Pandolfo, G., additional, Panlilio, L.V., additional, Paquin, K., additional, Parakh, P., additional, Parker, L.A., additional, Patel, V.B., additional, Pawson, M., additional, Peres, F.F., additional, Petras, H., additional, Pollastro, F., additional, Porcu, A., additional, Potente, R., additional, Potter, D.E., additional, Potvin, S., additional, Prats, C., additional, Preedy, V.R., additional, Rajendram, R., additional, Rathke, L., additional, Reed, K.L., additional, Repka, M.A., additional, Rigter, H., additional, Rock, E.M., additional, Rohrbacher, H., additional, Rosa, P.G.P., additional, Sánchez-Martínez, F., additional, Sánchez-Torres, A.M., additional, Sałaga, M., additional, Sabato, V., additional, Sanders, A.N., additional, Santos, L.C., additional, Scalese, M., additional, Schaufelberger, M.S., additional, Schröder, N., additional, Scimeca, G., additional, Secades-Villa, R., additional, Selvarajah, D., additional, Senormanci, O., additional, Shivakumar, K., additional, Shrier, L.A., additional, Siciliano, V., additional, Sideli, L., additional, Siegel, J.T., additional, Sleem, A.A., additional, Sobczyński, J., additional, Sodos, L., additional, Solowij, N., additional, Song, Z.-H., additional, Stacy, A.W., additional, Stehle, F., additional, Stogner, J.M., additional, Sussman, S., additional, Swift, W., additional, Szerman, N., additional, Tüting, T., additional, Aghazadeh Tabrizi, M., additional, Taglialatela-Scafati, O., additional, Takahashi, R.N., additional, Takeda, S., additional, Tarricone, I., additional, Tashkin, D.P., additional, Tellioğlu, T., additional, Tellioğlu, Z., additional, Tesfaye, S., additional, Thornton, L., additional, Thylstrup, B., additional, Tibbo, P.G., additional, Todd, G., additional, Torrens, M., additional, Tsai, J., additional, Tseng, H.-H., additional, Turner, A., additional, Tuv, S.S., additional, Ullah, F., additional, Van der Linden, T., additional, Van Gasse, A.L., additional, Vega, P., additional, Vera, G., additional, Verdichevski, M., additional, Vieira Sousa, T.R., additional, Vilela, L.R., additional, Vindenes, V., additional, Walsh, Z., additional, Watanabe, K., additional, Watterson, L.R., additional, White, J.M., additional, Wright, N.E., additional, Yücel, M., additional, Yamamoto, I., additional, Yamaori, S., additional, Zalesky, A., additional, Zalman, D., additional, Zhang, J., additional, Zhang, Y., additional, Zoccali, R., additional, Zorumski, C.F., additional, and Zuardi, A.W., additional

Published
2017
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19. Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Author

Sherratt, K., primary, Gruson, H., additional, Grah, R., additional, Johnson, H., additional, Niehus, R., additional, Prasse, B., additional, Sandman, F., additional, Deuschel, J., additional, Wolffram, D., additional, Abbott, S., additional, Ullrich, A., additional, Gibson, G., additional, Ray, EL., additional, Reich, NG., additional, Sheldon, D., additional, Wang, Y., additional, Wattanachit, N., additional, Wang, L., additional, Trnka, J., additional, Obozinski, G., additional, Sun, T., additional, Thanou, D., additional, Pottier, L., additional, Krymova, E., additional, Barbarossa, MV., additional, Leithäuser, N., additional, Mohring, J., additional, Schneider, J., additional, Wlazlo, J., additional, Fuhrmann, J., additional, Lange, B., additional, Rodiah, I., additional, Baccam, P., additional, Gurung, H., additional, Stage, S., additional, Suchoski, B., additional, Budzinski, J., additional, Walraven, R., additional, Villanueva, I., additional, Tucek, V., additional, Šmíd, M., additional, Zajícek, M., additional, Pérez Álvarez, C., additional, Reina, B., additional, Bosse, NI., additional, Meakin, S., additional, Di Loro, P. Alaimo, additional, Maruotti, A., additional, Eclerová, V., additional, Kraus, A., additional, Kraus, D., additional, Pribylova, L., additional, Dimitris, B., additional, Li, ML., additional, Saksham, S., additional, Dehning, J., additional, Mohr, S., additional, Priesemann, V., additional, Redlarski, G., additional, Bejar, B., additional, Ardenghi, G., additional, Parolini, N., additional, Ziarelli, G., additional, Bock, W., additional, Heyder, S., additional, Hotz, T., additional, E. Singh, D., additional, Guzman-Merino, M., additional, Aznarte, JL., additional, Moriña, D., additional, Alonso, S., additional, Álvarez, E., additional, López, D., additional, Prats, C., additional, Burgard, JP., additional, Rodloff, A., additional, Zimmermann, T., additional, Kuhlmann, A., additional, Zibert, J., additional, Pennoni, F., additional, Divino, F., additional, Català, M., additional, Lovison, G., additional, Giudici, P., additional, Tarantino, B., additional, Bartolucci, F., additional, Jona Lasinio, G., additional, Mingione, M., additional, Farcomeni, A., additional, Srivastava, A., additional, Montero-Manso, P., additional, Adiga, A., additional, Hurt, B., additional, Lewis, B., additional, Marathe, M., additional, Porebski, P., additional, Venkatramanan, S., additional, Bartczuk, R., additional, Dreger, F., additional, Gambin, A., additional, Gogolewski, K., additional, Gruziel-Slomka, M., additional, Krupa, B., additional, Moszynski, A., additional, Niedzielewski, K., additional, Nowosielski, J., additional, Radwan, M., additional, Rakowski, F., additional, Semeniuk, M., additional, Szczurek, E., additional, Zielinski, J., additional, Kisielewski, J., additional, Pabjan, B., additional, Holger, K., additional, Kheifetz, Y., additional, Scholz, M., additional, Bodych, M., additional, Filinski, M., additional, Idzikowski, R., additional, Krueger, T., additional, Ozanski, T., additional, Bracher, J., additional, and Funk, S., additional

Published
2022
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20. PB1839: INDEPENDENT PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF A PLATELET COUNT OVER 300X109/L IN ACUTE MYELOBLASTIC LEUKEMIA PATIENTS TREATED WITH AN INTENSIVE REGIMEN.

Author

Ródenas Quiñonero, I., primary, Jeréz, A., additional, Ferrer, B., additional, Orna, E., additional, Navarro-Ferrando, J. T., additional, Raya, J. M., additional, Martin-Santos, T., additional, Ricard, M., additional, Bermejo, A., additional, Morales, R., additional, Prats, C., additional, Navarrete, M., additional, Roldán-Galiacho, V., additional, Amigo, M. L., additional, Vicente, V., additional, and Ortuño, F. J., additional

Published
2022
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21. Country-report pattern corrections of new cases allow accurate two-week predictions of Covid19 evolution with the Gompertz model

Author

Villanueva, I., primary, Conesa, D., additional, Català, M., additional, Cano, C. López, additional, Perramon, A., additional, Molinuevo, D., additional, Lopez-Codina, D., additional, Alonso, S., additional, Cardona, P. J., additional, Montañola-Sales, C., additional, Prats, C., additional, and Alvarez-Lacalle, E., additional

Published
2022
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24. Participatory and Integrated Modelling under Contentious Water Use in Semiarid Basins

Author

Rojas, R, Castilla-Rho, J, Bennison, G, Bridgart, R, Prats, C, Claro, E, Rojas, R, Castilla-Rho, J, Bennison, G, Bridgart, R, Prats, C, and Claro, E

Abstract

Addressing modern water management challenges requires the integration of physical environmental and socio economic aspects including diverse stakeholders values interests and goals Early stakeholder involvement increases the likelihood of acceptance and legitimacy of potential solutions to these challenges Participatory modelling allows stakeholders to co design solutions thus facilitating knowledge co construction social learning In this work we combine integrated modelling and participatory modelling to develop and deploy a digital platform supporting decisionmaking for water management in a semiarid basin under contentious water use The purpose of this tool is exploring on the fly alternative water management strategies and potential policy pathways with stakeholders We first co designed specific water management strategies impact indicators and collected local knowledge about farmers behaviour regarding groundwater regulation Second we coupled a node link water balance model a groundwater model and an agent based model in a digital platform SimCopiapo for scenario exploration This was done with constant input from key stakeholders through a participatory process Our results suggest that reductions of groundwater demand 40 alone are not sufficient to capture stakeholders interests and steer the system towards sustainable water use and thus a portfolio of management strategies including exchanges of water rights improvements to hydraulic infrastructure and robust enforcement policies is required The establishment of an efficient enforcement policy to monitor compliance on caps imposed on groundwater use and sanction those breaching this regulation is required to trigger the minimum momentum for policy acceptance Finally the participatory modelling process led to the definition of a diverse collection of strategies impact indicators which are reflections of the stakeholders interests This indicates that not only the final product i e SimCopiapo is of value but als

Published
2022

25. A Cost-Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination in Catalonia

Author

Lopez, F, Catala, M, Prats, C, Estrada, O, Oliva, I, Prat, N, Isnard, M, Valles, R, Vilar, M, Clotet, B, Argimon, JM, Aran, A, and Ara, J

Subjects
pharmacoeconomics, cost-benefit analysis, COVID-19, health economics, vaccination, economic appraisal
Abstract

(1) Background: In epidemiological terms, it has been possible to calculate the savings in health resources and the reduction in the health effects of COVID vaccines. Conducting an economic evaluation, some studies have estimated its cost-effectiveness; the vaccination shows highly favorable results, cost-saving in some cases. (2) Methods: Cost-benefit analysis of the vaccination campaign in the North Metropolitan Health Region (Catalonia). An epidemiological model based on observational data and before and after comparison is used. The information on the doses used and the assigned resources (conventional hospital beds, ICU, number of tests) was extracted from administrative data from the largest primary care provider in the region (Catalan Institute of Health). A distinction was made between the social perspective and the health system. (3) Results: the costs of vaccination are estimated at 137 million euros (euro48.05/dose administered). This figure is significantly lower than the positive impacts of the vaccination campaign, which are estimated at 470 million euros (euro164/dose administered). Of these, 18% corresponds to the reduction in ICU discharges, 16% to the reduction in conventional hospital discharges, 5% to the reduction in PCR tests and 1% to the reduction in RAT tests. The monetization of deaths and cases that avoid sequelae account for 53% and 5% of total savings, respectively. The benefit/cost ratio is estimated at 3.4 from a social perspective and 1.4 from a health system perspective. The social benefits of vaccination are estimated at euro116.67 per vaccine dose (euro19.93 from the perspective of the health system). (4) Conclusions: The mass vaccination campaign against COVID is cost-saving. From a social perspective, most of these savings come from the monetization of the reduction in mortality and cases with sequelae, although the intervention is equally widely cost-effective from the health system perspective thanks to the reduction in the use of resources. It is concluded that, from an economic perspective, the vaccination campaign has high social returns.

Published
2022

29. Association and epistatic analysis of white matter related genes across the continuum schizophrenia and autism spectrum disorders: The joint effect of NRG1-ErbB genes

Author

Prats, C., primary, Fatjó-Vilas, M., additional, Penzol, M. J., additional, Kebir, O., additional, Pina-Camacho, L., additional, Demontis, D., additional, Crespo-Facorro, B., additional, Peralta, V., additional, González-Pinto, A., additional, Pomarol-Clotet, E., additional, Papiol, S., additional, Parellada, M., additional, Krebs, M. O., additional, and Fañanás, L., additional

Published
2021
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32. Association and epistatic analysis of white matter related genes across the continuum schizophrenia and autism spectrum disorders: The joint effect of NRG1-ErbB genes

Author

Prats, C., Fatjó-Vilas, M., Penzol, M. J., Kebir, O., Pina-Camacho, L., Demontis, D., Crespo-Facorro, B., Peralta, V., González-Pinto, A., Pomarol-Clotet, E., Papiol, S., Parellada, M., Krebs, M. O., and Fañanás, L.

Subjects
mental disorders
Abstract

Schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (SSD) and Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are neurodevelopmental disorders that share clinical, cognitive, and genetic characteristics, as well as particular white matter (WM) abnormalities. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of a set of oligodendrocyte/myelin-related (OMR) genes and their epistatic effect on the risk for SSD and ASD. We examined 108 SNPs in a set of 22 OMR genes in 1749 subjects divided into three independent samples (187 SSD trios, 915 SSD cases/control, and 91 ASD trios). Genetic association and gene-gene interaction analyses were conducted with PLINK and MB-MDR, and permutation procedures were implemented in both. Some OMR genes showed an association trend with SSD, while after correction, the ones that remained significantly associated were MBP, ERBB3, and AKT1. Significant gene-gene interactions were found between (i) NRG1*MBP (perm p-value = 0.002) in the SSD trios sample, (ii) ERBB3*AKT1 (perm p-value = 0.001) in the SSD case-control sample, and (iii) ERBB3*QKI (perm p-value = 0.0006) in the ASD trios sample. Our results suggest the implication of OMR genes in the risk for both SSD and ASD and highlight the role of NRG1 and ERBB genes. These findings are in line with the previous evidence and may suggest pathophysiological mechanisms related to NRG1/ERBBs signalling in these disorders.

Published
2021
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33. Symptom-Based Predictive Model of COVID-19 Disease in Children

Author

Antoñanzas JM, Perramon A, López C, Boneta M, Aguilera C, Capdevila R, Gatell A, Serrano P, Poblet M, Canadell D, Vilà M, Catasús G, Valldepérez C, Català M, Soler-Palacín P, Prats C, Soriano-Arandes A, and The Copedi-Cat Research Group

Subjects
machine learning, microbiology, deep learning, paediatrics, COVID-19, epidemiology, SARS-CoV-2
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is neither always accessible nor easy to perform in children. We aimed to propose a machine learning model to assess the need for a SARS-CoV-2 test in children (

Published
2021

34. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection among children in summer schools applying stringent control measures in Barcelona, Spain

Author

Jordán-García I, Fernández de Sevilla-Estrach M, Fumadó Victoria, Bassat Q, Bonet-Carne E, Fortuny-Guasch C, Garcia-Miquel A, Jou-Munoz C, Adroher C, Casas MM, Girona M, Garcia MH, Tomas GP, Ajanovic S, Arias S, Balanza N, Baro B, Millat-Martinez P, Varo R, Alonso S, Álvarez-Lacalle E, López D, Claverol J, Cubells M, Brotons-de los Reyes P, Codina-Bergadà A, Cuadras-Palleja D, Bruijning-Verhagen P, Faust S, Munro A, Munoz-Almagro C, Català M, Prats C, García-García JJ, and Gratacós E

Subjects
children, SARS-CoV-2, transmission, COVID-19
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Understanding the role of children in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is critical to guide decision-making for schools in the pandemic. We aimed to describe the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among children and adult staff in summer schools. METHODS: During July 2020 we prospectively recruited children and adult staff attending summer schools in Barcelona who had SARS-CoV-2 infection. Primary SARS-CoV-2 infections were identified through: (1) surveillance program in 22 summer schools' of 1905 participants, involving weekly saliva sampling for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR during 2-5 weeks; (2)cases identified through the Catalonian Health Surveillance System of children diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection by nasopharyngeal RT-PCR. All centres followed prevention protocols: bubble groups, hand washing, facemasks and conducting activities mostly outdoors. Contacts of a primary case within the same bubble were evaluated by nasopharyngeal RT-PCR. Secondary attack rates and effective reproduction number in summer schools(R*) were calculated. RESULTS: Among the over 2000 repeatedly screened participants, 30children and 9adults were identified as primary cases. A total of 253 close contacts of these primary cases were studied (median 9 (IQR 5-10) for each primary case), among which twelve new cases (4.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. The R* was 0.3, whereas the contemporary rate in the general population from the same areas in Barcelona was 1.9. CONCLUSIONS: The transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection among children attending school-like facilities under strict prevention measures was lower than that reported for the general population. This suggests that under preventive measures schools are unlikely amplifiers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and supports current recommendations for school opening.

Published
2021

35. Improving Social Justice in COVID-19 Health Research: Interim guidelines for reporting health equity in observational studies

Author

Antequera, A., Lawson, D.O., Noorduyn, S.G., Dewidar, O., Avey, M., Bhutta, Z.A., Chamberlain, C., Ellingwood, H., Francis, D., Funnell, S., Ghogomu, E., Greer-Smith, R., Horsley, T., Juando-Prats, C., Jull, J., Kristjansson, E., Little, J., Nicholls, S.G., Nkangu, M., Petticrew, M., Rada, G., Rizvi, A., Shamseer, L., Sharp, M.K., Tufte, J., Tugwell, P., Verdugo-Paiva, F., Wang, H., Wang, X., Mbuagbaw, L., Welch, V., Antequera, A., Lawson, D.O., Noorduyn, S.G., Dewidar, O., Avey, M., Bhutta, Z.A., Chamberlain, C., Ellingwood, H., Francis, D., Funnell, S., Ghogomu, E., Greer-Smith, R., Horsley, T., Juando-Prats, C., Jull, J., Kristjansson, E., Little, J., Nicholls, S.G., Nkangu, M., Petticrew, M., Rada, G., Rizvi, A., Shamseer, L., Sharp, M.K., Tufte, J., Tugwell, P., Verdugo-Paiva, F., Wang, H., Wang, X., Mbuagbaw, L., and Welch, V.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global imperative to address health inequities. Observational studies are a valuable source of evidence for real-world effects and impacts of implementing COVID-19 policies on the redistribution of inequities. We assembled a diverse global multi-disciplinary team to develop interim guidance for improving transparency in reporting health equity in COVID-19 observational studies. We identified 14 areas in the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist that need additional detail to encourage transparent reporting of health equity. We searched for examples of COVID-19 observational studies that analysed and reported health equity analysis across one or more social determinants of health. We engaged with Indigenous stakeholders and others groups experiencing health inequities to co-produce this guidance and to bring an intersectional lens. Taking health equity and social determinants of health into account contributes to the clinical and epidemiological understanding of the disease, identifying specific needs and supporting decision-making processes. Stakeholders are encouraged to consider using this guidance on observational research to help provide evidence to close the inequitable gaps in health outcomes.

Published
2021

36. Improving Social Justice in COVID-19 Health Research: Interim Guidelines for Reporting Health Equity in Observational Studies

Author

Antequera, A, Lawson, DO, Noorduyn, SG, Dewidar, O, Avey, M, Bhutta, ZA, Chamberlain, C, Ellingwood, H, Francis, D, Funnell, S, Ghogomu, E, Greer-Smith, R, Horsley, T, Juando-Prats, C, Jull, J, Kristjansson, E, Little, J, Nicholls, SG, Nkangu, M, Petticrew, M, Rada, G, Rizvi, A, Shamseer, L, Sharp, MK, Tufte, J, Tugwell, P, Verdugo-Paiva, F, Wang, H, Wang, X, Mbuagbaw, L, Welch, V, Antequera, A, Lawson, DO, Noorduyn, SG, Dewidar, O, Avey, M, Bhutta, ZA, Chamberlain, C, Ellingwood, H, Francis, D, Funnell, S, Ghogomu, E, Greer-Smith, R, Horsley, T, Juando-Prats, C, Jull, J, Kristjansson, E, Little, J, Nicholls, SG, Nkangu, M, Petticrew, M, Rada, G, Rizvi, A, Shamseer, L, Sharp, MK, Tufte, J, Tugwell, P, Verdugo-Paiva, F, Wang, H, Wang, X, Mbuagbaw, L, and Welch, V

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global imperative to address health inequities. Observational studies are a valuable source of evidence for real-world effects and impacts of implementing COVID-19 policies on the redistribution of inequities. We assembled a diverse global multi-disciplinary team to develop interim guidance for improving transparency in reporting health equity in COVID-19 observational studies. We identified 14 areas in the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist that need additional detail to encourage transparent reporting of health equity. We searched for examples of COVID-19 observational studies that analysed and reported health equity analysis across one or more social determinants of health. We engaged with Indigenous stakeholders and others groups experiencing health inequities to co-produce this guidance and to bring an intersectional lens. Taking health equity and social determinants of health into account contributes to the clinical and epidemiological understanding of the disease, identifying specific needs and supporting decision-making processes. Stakeholders are encouraged to consider using this guidance on observational research to help provide evidence to close the inequitable gaps in health outcomes.

Published
2021

40. Association and epistatic analysis of white matter related genes across the continuum schizophrenia and autism spectrum disorders: The joint effect of NRG1-ErbB genes.

Author

Prats, C., Fatjó-Vilas, M., Penzol, M. J., Kebir, O., Pina-Camacho, L., Demontis, D., Crespo-Facorro, B., Peralta, V., González-Pinto, A., Pomarol-Clotet, E., Papiol, S., Parellada, M., Krebs, M. O., and Fañanás, L.

Subjects
*AUTISM spectrum disorders, *SCHIZOPHRENIA, *WHITE matter (Nerve tissue), *JOINT diseases, *GENES, *CHILDREN with autism spectrum disorders, *MYELIN proteins
Abstract

Schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (SSD) and Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are neurodevelopmental disorders that share clinical, cognitive, and genetic characteristics, as well as particular white matter (WM) abnormalities. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of a set of oligodendrocyte/myelin-related (OMR) genes and their epistatic effect on the risk for SSD and ASD. We examined 108 SNPs in a set of 22 OMR genes in 1749 subjects divided into three independent samples (187 SSD trios, 915 SSD cases/control, and 91 ASD trios). Genetic association and gene-gene interaction analyses were conducted with PLINK and MB-MDR, and permutation procedures were implemented in both. Some OMR genes showed an association trend with SSD, while after correction, the ones that remained significantly associated were MBP, ERBB3, and AKT1. Significant gene-gene interactions were found between (i) NRG1*MBP (perm p-value = 0.002) in the SSD trios sample, (ii) ERBB3*AKT1 (perm p-value = 0.001) in the SSD case-control sample, and (iii) ERBB3*QKI (perm p-value = 0.0006) in the ASD trios sample. Our results suggest the implication of OMR genes in the risk for both SSD and ASD and highlight the role of NRG1 and ERBB genes. These findings are in line with the previous evidence and may suggest pathophysiological mechanisms related to NRG1/ERBBs signalling in these disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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