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We test the BUQEYE model of correlated effective field theory (EFT) truncation errors on Reinert, Krebs, and Epelbaum's semi-local momentum-space implementation of the chiral EFT ($\chi$EFT) expansion of the nucleon-nucleon (NN) potential. This Bayesian model hypothesizes that dimensionless coefficient functions extracted from the order-by-order corrections to NN observables can be treated as draws from a Gaussian process (GP). We combine a variety of graphical and statistical diagnostics to assess when predicted observables have a $\chi$EFT convergence pattern consistent with the hypothesized GP statistical model. Our conclusions are: First, the BUQEYE model is generally applicable to the potential investigated here, which enables statistically principled estimates of the impact of higher EFT orders on observables. Second, parameters defining the extracted coefficients such as the expansion parameter $Q$ must be well chosen for the coefficients to exhibit a regular convergence pattern -- a property we exploit to obtain posterior distributions for such quantities. Third, the assumption of GP stationarity across lab energy and scattering angle is not generally met; this necessitates adjustments in future work. We provide a workflow and interpretive guide for our analysis framework, and show what can be inferred about probability distributions for $Q$, the EFT breakdown scale $\Lambda_b$, the scale associated with soft physics in the $\chi$EFT potential $m_{\rm eff}$, and the GP hyperparameters. All our results can be reproduced using a publicly available Jupyter notebook, which can be straightforwardly modified to analyze other $\chi$EFT NN potentials., Comment: 29 pages, 33 figures

We describe the Bayesian Analysis of Nuclear Dynamics (BAND) framework, a cyberinfrastructure that we are developing which will unify the treatment of nuclear models, experimental data, and associated uncertainties. We overview the statistical principles and nuclear-physics contexts underlying the BAND toolset, with an emphasis on Bayesian methodology's ability to leverage insight from multiple models. In order to facilitate understanding of these tools we provide a simple and accessible example of the BAND framework's application. Four case studies are presented to highlight how elements of the framework will enable progress on complex, far-ranging problems in nuclear physics. By collecting notation and terminology, providing illustrative examples, and giving an overview of the associated techniques, this paper aims to open paths through which the nuclear physics and statistics communities can contribute to and build upon the BAND framework., Comment: 47 pages, 10 figures. Revised version includes minor corrections and changes in presentation. Matches journal version

Interpreting measurements requires a physical theory, but the theory's accuracy may vary across the experimental domain. To optimize experimental design, and so to ensure that the substantial resources necessary for modern experiments are focused on acquiring the most valuable data, both the theory uncertainty and the expected pattern of experimental errors must be considered. We develop a Bayesian approach to this problem, and apply it to the example of proton Compton scattering. Chiral Effective Field Theory ($\chi$EFT) predicts the functional form of the scattering amplitude for this reaction, so that the electromagnetic polarizabilities of the nucleon can be inferred from data. With increasing photon energy, both experimental rates and sensitivities to polarizabilities increase, but the accuracy of $\chi$EFT decreases. Our physics-based model of $\chi$EFT truncation errors is combined with present knowledge of the polarizabilities and reasonable assumptions about experimental capabilities at HI$\gamma$S and MAMI to assess the information gain from measuring specific observables at specific kinematics, \emph{i.e.}, to determine the relative amount by which new data are apt to shrink uncertainties. The strongest gains would likely come from new data on the spin observables $\Sigma_{2x}$ and $\Sigma_{2x^\prime}$ at $\omega\simeq140$ to $200$ MeV and $40^\circ$ to $120^\circ$. These would tightly constrain $\gamma_{E1E1}-\gamma_{E1M2}$. New data on the differential cross section between $100$ and $200$\,MeV and over a wide angle range will substantially improve constraints on $\alpha_{E1}-\beta_{M1}$, $\gamma_\pi$ and $\gamma_{M1M1}-\gamma_{M1E2}$. Good signals also exist around $160$ MeV for $\Sigma_3$ and $\Sigma_{2z^\prime}$. Such data will be pivotal in the continuing quest to pin down the scalar polarizabilities and refine understanding of the spin polarizabilities., Comment: 47 pages LaTeX2e (pdflatex) including 33 figures as .jpg files using includegraphics. Improved presentation with corrections do not affect the conclusions by details of the figures. Higher-resolution figures are available at https://home.gwu.edu/~hgrie/Compton/one-N-comprehensive-observables-delta4.v2.0.high-resolution-figures.tgz. Final version with minor corrections published in EPJA57(2021)81

Effective field theories (EFTs) organize the description of complex systems into an infinite sequence of decreasing importance. Predictions are made with a finite number of terms, which induces a truncation error that is often left unquantified. We formalize the notion of EFT convergence and propose a Bayesian truncation error model for predictions that are correlated across the independent variables, e.g., energy or scattering angle. Central to our approach are Gaussian processes that encode both the naturalness and correlation structure of EFT coefficients. Our use of Gaussian processes permits efficient and accurate assessment of credible intervals, allows EFT fits to easily include correlated theory errors, and provides analytic posteriors for physical EFT-related quantities such as the expansion parameter. We demonstrate that model-checking diagnostics---applied to the case of multiple curves---are powerful tools for EFT validation. As an example, we assess a set of nucleon-nucleon scattering observables in chiral EFT. In an effort to be self contained, appendices include thorough derivations of our statistical results. Our methods are packaged in Python code, called gsum, that is available for download on GitHub., Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures

Bayesian regression trees are flexible non-parametric models that are well suited to many modern statistical regression problems. Many such tree models have been proposed, from the simple single- tree model to more complex tree ensembles. Their non-parametric formulation allows for effective and efficient modeling of datasets exhibiting complex non-linear relationships between the model pre- dictors and observations. However, the mixing behavior of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is sometimes poor. This is because the proposals in the sampler are typically local alterations of the tree structure, such as the birth/death of leaf nodes, which does not allow for efficient traversal of the model space. This poor mixing can lead to inferential problems, such as under-representing uncertainty. In this paper, we develop novel proposal mechanisms for efficient sampling. The first is a rule perturbation proposal while the second we call tree rotation. The perturbation proposal can be seen as an efficient variation of the change proposal found in existing literature. The novel tree rotation proposal is simple to implement as it only requires local changes to the regression tree structure, yet it efficiently traverses disparate regions of the model space along contours of equal probability. When combined with the classical birth/death proposal, the resulting MCMC sampler exhibits good acceptance rates and properly represents model uncertainty in the posterior samples. We implement this sampling algorithm in the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) model and demonstrate its effectiveness on a prediction problem from computer experiments and a test function where structural tree variability is needed to fully explore the posterior.