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Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387 . Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

In silico clinical trials (ISCTs) are an emerging method in modeling and simulation where medical interventions are evaluated using computational models of patients. ISCTs have the potential to provide cost-effective, time-efficient, and ethically favorable alternatives for evaluating the safety and effectiveness of medical devices. However, ensuring the credibility of ISCT results is a significant challenge. This paper aims to identify unique considerations for assessing the credibility of ISCTs and proposes an ISCT credibility assessment workflow based on recently published model assessment frameworks. First, we review various ISCTs described in the literature, carefully selected to showcase the range of methodological options available. These studies cover a wide variety of devices, reasons for conducting ISCTs, patient model generation approaches including subject-specific versus 'synthetic' virtual patients, complexity levels of devices and patient models, incorporation of clinician or clinical outcome models, and methods for integrating ISCT results with real-world clinical trials. We next discuss how verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification apply to ISCTs, considering the range of ISCT approaches identified. Based on our analysis, we then present a hierarchical workflow for assessing ISCT credibility, using a general credibility assessment framework recently published by the FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health. Overall, this work aims to promote standardization in ISCTs and contribute to the wider adoption and acceptance of ISCTs as a reliable tool for evaluating medical devices.

Computational models of patients and medical devices can be combined to perform an in silico clinical trial (ISCT) to investigate questions related to device safety and/or effectiveness across the total product life cycle. ISCTs can potentially accelerate product development by more quickly informing device design and testing or they could be used to refine, reduce, or in some cases to completely replace human subjects in a clinical trial. There are numerous potential benefits of ISCTs. An important caveat, however, is that an ISCT is a virtual representation of the real world that has to be shown to be credible before being relied upon to make decisions that have the potential to cause patient harm. There are many challenges to establishing ISCT credibility. ISCTs can integrate many different submodels that potentially use different modeling types (e.g., physics-based, data-driven, rule-based) that necessitate different strategies and approaches for generating credibility evidence. ISCT submodels can include those for the medical device, the patient, the interaction of the device and patient, generating virtual patients, clinical decision making and simulating an intervention (e.g., device implantation), and translating acute physics-based simulation outputs to health-related clinical outcomes (e.g., device safety and/or effectiveness endpoints). Establishing the credibility of each ISCT submodel is challenging, but is nonetheless important because inaccurate output from a single submodel could potentially compromise the credibility of the entire ISCT. The objective of this study is to begin addressing some of these challenges and to identify general strategies for establishing ISCT credibility. Most notably, we propose a hierarchical approach for assessing the credibility of an ISCT that involves systematically gathering credibility evidence for each ISCT submodel in isolation before demonstrating credibility of the full ISCT. Also, following FDA Guidance for assessing computational model credibility, we provide suggestions for ways to clearly describe each of the ISCT submodels and the full ISCT, discuss considerations for performing an ISCT model risk assessment, identify common challenges to demonstrating ISCT credibility, and present strategies for addressing these challenges using our proposed hierarchical approach. Finally, in the Appendix we illustrate the many concepts described here using a hypothetical ISCT example.

Abstract Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient’s condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain pre-clinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial. A physiological variable that plays a major role during fluid resuscitation is heart rate (HR). For in silico assessment of PCLC medical devices regarding fluid perturbation, there is currently no mathematical model of HR validated in terms of its predictive capability performance. This paper develops and validates a mathematical model of HR response using data collected from sheep subjects undergoing hemorrhage and fluid infusion. The model proved to be accurate in estimating the HR response to fluid perturbation, where averaged between 21 calibration datasets, the fitting performance showed a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of $$7.41 \pm 2.8 \%$$ 7.41 ± 2.8 % . The model was also evaluated in terms of model predictive capability performance via a leave-one-out procedure (21 subjects) and an independent validation dataset (6 subjects). Two different virtual cohort generation tools were used in each validation analysis. The generated envelope of virtual subjects robustly met the defined acceptance criteria, in which $$95\%$$ 95 % of the testing datasets presented simulated HR patterns that were within a deviation of 50% from the observed data. In addition, out of 16000 and 18522 simulated subjects for the leave-one-out and independent datasets, the model was able to generate at least one virtual subject that was close to the real subject within an error margin of $$9.56 \pm 3.15\%$$ 9.56 ± 3.15 % and $$11.1 \pm 1.22\%$$ 11.1 ± 1.22 % NRMSE, respectively. In conclusion, the model can generate valid virtual HR physiological responses to fluid perturbation and be incorporated into future non-clinical simulated testing setups for assessing PCLC devices intended for fluid resuscitation.

There are a variety of difficulties in evaluating clinical cardiac mapping systems, most notably the inability to record the transmembrane potential throughout the entire heart during patient procedures which prevents the comparison to a relevant “gold standard”. Cardiac mapping systems are comprised of hardware and software elements including sophisticated mathematical algorithms, both of which continue to undergo rapid innovation. The purpose of this study is to develop a computational modeling framework to evaluate the performance of cardiac mapping systems. The framework enables rigorous evaluation of a mapping system’s ability to localize and characterize (i.e., focal or reentrant) arrhythmogenic sources in the heart. The main component of our tool is a library of computer simulations of various dynamic patterns throughout the entire heart in which the type and location of the arrhythmogenic sources are known. Our framework allows for performance evaluation for various electrode configurations, heart geometries, arrhythmias, and electrogram noise levels and involves blind comparison of mapping systems against a “silver standard” comprised of computer simulations in which the precise transmembrane potential patterns throughout the heart are known. A feasibility study was performed using simulations of patterns in the human left atria and three hypothetical virtual catheter electrode arrays. Activation times (AcT) and patterns (AcP) were computed for three virtual electrode arrays: two basket arrays with good and poor contact and one high-resolution grid with uniform spacing. The average root mean squared difference of AcTs of electrograms and those of the nearest endocardial action potential was less than 1 ms and therefore appears to be a poor performance metric. In an effort to standardize performance evaluation of mapping systems a novel performance metric is introduced based on the number of AcPs identified correctly and those considered spurious as well as misclassifications of arrhythmia type; spatial and temporal localization accuracy of correctly identified patterns was also quantified. This approach provides a rigorous quantitative analysis of cardiac mapping system performance. Proof of concept of this computational evaluation framework suggests that it could help safeguard that mapping systems perform as expected as well as provide estimates of system accuracy.

Abstract As decisions in drug development increasingly rely on predictions from mechanistic systems models, assessing the predictive capability of such models is becoming more important. Several frameworks for the development of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models have been proposed. In this paper, we add to this body of work with a framework that focuses on the appropriate use of qualitative and quantitative model evaluation methods. We provide details and references for those wishing to apply these methods, which include sensitivity and identifiability analyses, as well as concepts such as validation and uncertainty quantification. Many of these methods have been used successfully in other fields, but are not as common in QSP modeling. We illustrate how to apply these methods to evaluate QSP models, and propose methods to use in two case studies. We also share examples of misleading results when inappropriate analyses are used.

Mathematical models have been an important tool during the COVID-19 pandemic, for example to predict demand of critical resources such as medical devices, personal protective equipment and diagnostic tests. Many COVID-19 models have been developed. However, there is relatively little information available regarding reliability of model predictions. Here we present a general model validation framework for epidemiological models focused around predictive capability for questions relevant to decision-making end-users. COVID-19 models are typically comprised of multiple releases, and provide predictions for multiple localities, and these characteristics are systematically accounted for in the framework, which is based around a set of validation scores or metrics that quantify model accuracy of specific quantities of interest including: date of peak, magnitude of peak, rate of recovery, and monthly cumulative counts. We applied the framework to retrospectively assess accuracy of death predictions for four COVID-19 models, and accuracy of hospitalization predictions for one COVID-19 model (models for which sufficient data was publicly available). When predicting date of peak deaths, the most accurate model had errors of approximately 15 days or less, for releases 3-6 weeks in advance of the peak. Death peak magnitude relative errors were generally in the 50% range 3-6 weeks before peak. Hospitalization predictions were less accurate than death predictions. All models were highly variable in predictive accuracy across regions. Overall, our framework provides a wealth of information on the predictive accuracy of epidemiological models and could be used in future epidemics to evaluate new models or support existing modeling methodologies, and thereby aid in informed model-based public health decision making. The code for the validation framework is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7102854.

Reliable and robust simulation of individual patients using patient-specific models (PSMs) is one of the next frontiers for modeling and simulation (M&S) in healthcare. PSMs, which form the basis of digital twins, can be employed as clinical tools to, for example, assess disease state, predict response to therapy, or optimize therapy. They may also be used to construct virtual cohorts of patients, for in silico evaluation of medical product safety and/or performance. Methods and frameworks have recently been proposed for evaluating the credibility of M&S in healthcare applications. However, such efforts have generally been motivated by models of medical devices or generic patient models; how best to evaluate the credibility of PSMs has largely been unexplored. The aim of this paper is to understand and demonstrate the credibility assessment process for PSMs using patient-specific cardiac electrophysiological (EP) modeling as an exemplar. We first review approaches used to generate cardiac PSMs and consider how verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) apply to cardiac PSMs. Next, we execute two simulation studies using a publicly available virtual cohort of 24 patient-specific ventricular models, the first a multi-patient verification study, the second investigating the impact of uncertainty in personalized and non-personalized inputs in a virtual cohort. We then use the findings from our analyses to identify how important characteristics of PSMs can be considered when assessing credibility with the approach of the ASME V&V40 Standard, accounting for PSM concepts such as inter- and intra-user variability, multi-patient and “every-patient” error estimation, uncertainty quantification in personalized vs non-personalized inputs, clinical validation, and others. The results of this paper will be useful to developers of cardiac and other medical image based PSMs, when assessing PSM credibility. Author summary Patient-specific models are computational models that have been personalized using data from a patient. After decades of research, recent computational, data science and healthcare advances have opened the door to the fulfilment of the enormous potential of such models, from truly personalized medicine to efficient and cost-effective testing of new medical products. However, reliability (credibility) of patient-specific models is key to their success, and there are currently no general guidelines for evaluating credibility of patient-specific models. Here, we consider how frameworks and model evaluation activities that have been developed for generic (not patient-specific) computational models, can be extended to patient specific models. We achieve this through a detailed analysis of the activities required to evaluate cardiac electrophysiological models, chosen as an exemplar field due to its maturity and the complexity of such models. This is the first paper on the topic of reliability of patient-specific models and will help pave the way to reliable and trusted patient-specific modeling across healthcare applications.

BackgroundLeft ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions.MethodsThe experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC's in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow [Formula: see text], maximum aortic root flow [Formula: see text], average LVAD flow [Formula: see text], and maximum LVAD flow [Formula: see text]); (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions.ResultsNumerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% ConclusionsThis work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

Subject-specific mathematical models for prediction of physiological parameters such as blood volume, cardiac output, and blood pressure in response to hemorrhage have been developed. In silico studies using these models may provide an effective tool to generate pre-clinical safety evidence for medical devices and help reduce the size and scope of animal studies that are performed prior to initiation of human trials. To achieve such a goal, the credibility of the mathematical model must be established for the purpose of pre-clinical in silico testing. In this work, the credibility of a subject-specific mathematical model of blood volume kinetics intended to predict blood volume response to hemorrhage and fluid resuscitation during fluid therapy was evaluated. A workflow was used in which: (i) the foundational properties of the mathematical model such as structural identifiability were evaluated; (ii) practical identifiability was evaluated both pre- and post-calibration, with the pre-calibration results used to determine an optimal splitting of experimental data into calibration and validation datasets; (iii) uncertainty in model parameters and the experimental uncertainty were quantified for each subject; and (iv) the uncertainty was propagated through the blood volume kinetics model and its predictive capability was evaluated via validation tests. The mathematical model was found to be structurally identifiable. Pre-calibration identifiability analysis led to splitting the 180 min of time series data per subject into 50 and 130 min calibration and validation windows, respectively. The average root mean squared error of the mathematical model was 12.6% using the calibration window of (0 min, 50 min). Practical identifiability was established post-calibration after fixing one of the parameters to a nominal value. In the validation tests, 82 and 75% of the subject-specific mathematical models were able to correctly predict blood volume response when predictive capability was evaluated at 180 min and at the time when amount of infused fluid equals fluid loss.

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology (EP) has recently transitioned from a scientific research tool to clinical applications. To ensure reliability of clinical or regulatory decisions made using cardiac EP models, it is vital to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions. Model predictions are uncertain because there is typically substantial uncertainty in model input parameters, due to measurement error or natural variability. While there has been much recent uncertainty quantification (UQ) research for cardiac EP models, all previous work has been limited by either: (i) considering uncertainty in only a subset of the full set of parameters; and/or (ii) assigning arbitrary variation to parameters (e.g., ±10 or 50% around mean value) rather than basing the parameter uncertainty on experimental data. In our recent work we overcame the first limitation by performing UQ and sensitivity analysis using a novel canine action potential model, allowing all parameters to be uncertain, but with arbitrary variation. Here, we address the second limitation by extending our previous work to use data-driven estimates of parameter uncertainty. Overall, we estimated uncertainty due to population variability in all parameters in five currents active during repolarization: inward potassium rectifier, transient outward potassium, L-type calcium, rapidly and slowly activating delayed potassium rectifier; 25 parameters in total (all model parameters except fast sodium current parameters). A variety of methods was used to estimate the variability in these parameters. We then propagated the uncertainties through the model to determine their impact on predictions of action potential shape, action potential duration (APD) prolongation due to drug block, and spiral wave dynamics. Parameter uncertainty had a significant effect on model predictions, especially L-type calcium current parameters. Correlation between physiological parameters was determined to play a role in physiological realism of action potentials. Surprisingly, even model outputs that were relative differences, specifically drug-induced APD prolongation, were heavily impacted by the underlying uncertainty. This is the first data-driven end-to-end UQ analysis in cardiac EP accounting for uncertainty in the vast majority of parameters, including first in tissue, and demonstrates how future UQ could be used to ensure model-based decisions are robust to all underlying parameter uncertainties.

Recent efforts to ensure the reliability of computational model-based predictions in healthcare, such as the ASME V&V40 Standard, emphasize the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) when evaluating computational models. UQ involves empirically determining the uncertainty in model inputs—typically resulting from natural variability or measurement error—and then calculating the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. SA involves calculating how uncertainty in model outputs can be apportioned to input uncertainty. Rigorous comprehensive UQ/SA provides confidence that model-based decisions are robust to underlying uncertainties. However, comprehensive UQ/SA is not currently feasible for whole heart models, due to numerous factors including model complexity and difficulty in measuring variability in the many parameters. Here, we present a significant step to developing a framework to overcome these limitations. We: (i) developed a novel action potential (AP) model of moderate complexity (six currents, seven variables, 36 parameters); (ii) prescribed input variability for all parameters (not empirically derived); (iii) used a single “hyper-parameter” to study increasing levels of parameter uncertainty; (iv) performed UQ and SA for a range of model-derived quantities with physiological relevance; and (v) present quantitative and qualitative ways to analyze different behaviors that occur under parameter uncertainty, including “model failure”. This is the first time uncertainty in every parameter (including conductances, steady-state parameters, and time constant parameters) of every ionic current in a cardiac model has been studied. This approach allowed us to demonstrate that, for this model, the simulated AP is fully robust to low levels of parameter uncertainty — to our knowledge the first time this has been shown of any cardiac model. A range of dynamics was observed at larger parameter uncertainty (e.g., oscillatory dynamics); analysis revealed that five parameters were highly influential in these dynamics. Overall, we demonstrate feasibility of performing comprehensive UQ/SA for cardiac cell models and demonstrate how to assess robustness and overcome model failure when performing cardiac UQ analyses. The approach presented here represents an important and significant step toward the development of model-based clinical tools which are demonstrably robust to all underlying uncertainties and therefore more reliable in safety-critical decision-making.

Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is a lethal condition that affects millions worldwide. The mechanism underlying VF is unstable reentrant electrical waves rotating around lines called filaments. These complex spatio-temporal patterns can be studied using both experimental and numerical methods. Computer simulations provide unique insights including high resolution dynamics throughout the heart and systematic control of quantities such as fiber orientation and cellular kinetics that are not feasible experimentally. Here we study filament dynamics using two bi-ventricular 3-D high-resolution rabbit heart geometries, one with detailed fine structure and another without fine structure. We studied filament dynamics using anisotropic and isotropic conductivities, and with four cellular action potential models with different recovery kinetics. Spiral wave dynamics observed in isotropic two-dimensional sheets were not predictive of the behavior in the whole heart. In 2-D the four cell models exhibited stable reentry, meandering spiral waves, and spiral-wave breakup. In the whole heart with fine structure, all simulation results exhibited complex dynamics reminiscent of fibrillation observed experimentally. In the whole heart without fine structure, anisotropy acted to destabilize filament dynamics although the number of filaments was reduced compared to the heart with structure. In addition, in isotropic hearts without structure the two cell models that exhibited meandering spiral waves in 2-D, stabilized into figure-of-eight surface patterns. We also studied the sensitivity of filament dynamics to computer system configuration and initial conditions. After large simulation times, different macroscopic results sometimes occurred across different system configurations, likely due to a lack of bitwise reproducibility. The study conclusions were insensitive to initial condition perturbations, however, the exact number of filaments over time and their trends were altered by these changes. In summary, we present the following new results. First, we provide a new cell model that resembles the surface patterns of VF in the rabbit heart both qualitatively and quantitatively. Second, filament dynamics in the whole heart cannot be predicted from spiral wave dynamics in 2-D and we identified anisotropy as one destabilizing factor. Third, the exact dynamics of filaments are sensitive to a variety of factors, so we suggest caution in their interpretation and their quantitative analyses.

Physiological closed-loop controlled medical devices automatically adjust therapy delivered to a patient to adjust a measured physiological variable. In critical care scenarios, these types of devices could automate, for example, fluid resuscitation, drug delivery, mechanical ventilation, and/or anesthesia and sedation. Evidence from simulations using computational models of physiological systems can play a crucial role in the development of physiological closed-loop controlled devices; but the utility of this evidence will depend on the credibility of the computational model used. Computational models of physiological systems can be complex with numerous non-linearities, time-varying properties, and unknown parameters, which leads to challenges in model assessment. Given the wide range of potential uses of computational patient models in the design and evaluation of physiological closed-loop controlled systems, and the varying risks associated with the diverse uses, the specific model as well as the necessary evidence to make a model credible for a use case may vary. In this review, we examine the various uses of computational patient models in the design and evaluation of critical care physiological closed-loop controlled systems (e.g., hemodynamic stability, mechanical ventilation, anesthetic delivery) as well as the types of evidence (e.g., verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification activities) presented to support the model for that use. We then examine and discuss how a credibility assessment framework (American Society of Mechanical Engineers Verification and Validation Subcommittee, V&V 40 Verification and Validation in Computational Modeling of Medical Devices) for medical devices can be applied to computational patient models used to test physiological closed-loop controlled systems.

Protecting and promoting public health is the mission of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health (CDRH), which regulates medical devices marketed in the U.S., envisions itself as the world's leader in medical device innovation and regulatory science–the development of new methods, standards, and approaches to assess the safety, efficacy, quality, and performance of medical devices. Traditionally, bench testing, animal studies, and clinical trials have been the main sources of evidence for getting medical devices on the market in the U.S. In recent years, however, computational modeling has become an increasingly powerful tool for evaluating medical devices, complementing bench, animal and clinical methods. Moreover, computational modeling methods are increasingly being used within software platforms, serving as clinical decision support tools, and are being embedded in medical devices. Because of its reach and huge potential, computational modeling has been identified as a priority by CDRH, and indeed by FDA's leadership. Therefore, the Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories (OSEL)—the research arm of CDRH—has committed significant resources to transforming computational modeling from a valuable scientific tool to a valuable regulatory tool, and developing mechanisms to rely more on digital evidence in place of other evidence. This article introduces the role of computational modeling for medical devices, describes OSEL's ongoing research, and overviews how evidence from computational modeling (i.e., digital evidence) has been used in regulatory submissions by industry to CDRH in recent years. It concludes by discussing the potential future role for computational modeling and digital evidence in medical devices.

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have a long history in basic science applications and device design and evaluation, but have significant potential for clinical applications in all areas of cardiovascular medicine, including functional imaging and mapping, drug safety evaluation, disease diagnosis, patient selection, and therapy optimisation or personalisation. For all stakeholders to be confident in model-based clinical decisions, cardiac electrophysiological (CEP) models must be demonstrated to be trustworthy and reliable. Credibility, that is, the belief in the predictive capability, of a computational model is primarily established by performing validation, in which model predictions are compared to experimental or clinical data. However, there are numerous challenges to performing validation for highly complex multi-scale physiological models such as CEP models. As a result, credibility of CEP model predictions is usually founded upon a wide range of distinct factors, including various types of validation results, underlying theory, evidence supporting model assumptions, evidence from model calibration, all at a variety of scales from ion channel to cell to organ. Consequently, it is often unclear, or a matter for debate, the extent to which a CEP model can be trusted for a given application. The aim of this article is to clarify potential rationale for the trustworthiness of CEP models by reviewing evidence that has been (or could be) presented to support their credibility. We specifically address the complexity and multi-scale nature of CEP models which makes traditional model evaluation difficult. In addition, we make explicit some of the credibility justification that we believe is implicitly embedded in the CEP modeling literature. Overall, we provide a fresh perspective to CEP model credibility, and build a depiction and categorisation of the wide-ranging body of credibility evidence for CEP models. This paper also represents a step toward the extension of model evaluation methodologies that are currently being developed by the medical device community, to physiological models.

Elucidating the underlying mechanisms of fatal cardiac arrhythmias requires a tight integration of electrophysiological experiments, models, and theory. Existing models of transmembrane action potential (AP) are complex (resulting in over parameterization) and varied (leading to dissimilar predictions). Thus, simpler models are needed to elucidate the "minimal physiological requirements" to reproduce significant observable phenomena using as few parameters as possible. Moreover, models have been derived from experimental studies from a variety of species under a range of environmental conditions (for example, all existing rabbit AP models incorporate a formulation of the rapid sodium current, INa, based on 30 year old data from chick embryo cell aggregates). Here we develop a simple "parsimonious" rabbit AP model that is mathematically identifiable (i.e., not over parameterized) by combining a novel Hodgkin-Huxley formulation of INa with a phenomenological model of repolarization similar to the voltage dependent, time-independent rectifying outward potassium current (IK). The model was calibrated using the following experimental data sets measured from the same species (rabbit) under physiological conditions: dynamic current-voltage (I-V) relationships during the AP upstroke; rapid recovery of AP excitability during the relative refractory period; and steady-state INa inactivation via voltage clamp. Simulations reproduced several important "emergent" phenomena including cellular alternans at rates > 250 bpm as observed in rabbit myocytes, reentrant spiral waves as observed on the surface of the rabbit heart, and spiral wave breakup. Model variants were studied which elucidated the minimal requirements for alternans and spiral wave break up, namely the kinetics of INa inactivation and the non-linear rectification of IK.The simplicity of the model, and the fact that its parameters have physiological meaning, make it ideal for engendering generalizable mechanistic insight and should provide a solid "building-block" to generate more detailed ionic models to represent complex rabbit electrophysiology.

When modelling tissue-level cardiac electrophysiology, continuum approximations to the discrete cell-level equations are used to maintain computational tractability. One of the most commonly used models is represented by the bidomain equations, the derivation of which relies on a homogenisation technique to construct a suitable approximation to the discrete model. This derivation does not explicitly account for the presence of gap junctions connecting one cell to another. It has been seen experimentally [Rohr, Cardiovasc. Res. 2004] that these gap junctions have a marked effect on the propagation of the action potential, specifically as the upstroke of the wave passes through the gap junction. In this paper we explicitly include gap junctions in a both a 2D discrete model of cardiac electrophysiology, and the corresponding continuum model, on a simplified cell geometry. Using these models we compare the results of simulations using both continuum and discrete systems. We see that the form of the action potential as it passes through gap junctions cannot be replicated using a continuum model, and that the underlying propagation speed of the action potential ceases to match up between models when gap junctions are introduced. In addition, the results of the discrete simulations match the characteristics of those shown in Rohr 2004. From this, we suggest that a hybrid model — a discrete system following the upstroke of the action potential, and a continuum system elsewhere — may give a more accurate description of cardiac electrophysiology.

Tissue microstructure, in particular the alignment of myocytes (fibre direction) and their lateral organisation into sheets, is fundamental to cardiac function. We studied the effect of microstructure on contraction in a computational model of rat left ventricular electromechanics. Different fibre models, globally rule-based or locally optimised to DT-MRI data, were compared, in order to understand whether a subject-specific fibre model would enhance the predictive power of our model with respect to the global ones. We also studied the impact of sheets on ventricular deformation by comparing: (a) a transversely isotropic versus an orthotropic material law and (b) a linear model with a bimodal model of sheet transmural variation. We estimated ejection fraction, wall thickening and base-to-apex shortening and compared them with measures from cine-MRI. We also evaluated Lagrangian strains as local metrics of cardiac deformation. Our results show that the subject-specific fibre model provides little improvement in the metric predictions with respect to global fibre models while material orthotropy allows closer agreement with measures than transverse isotropy. Nonetheless, the impact of sheets in our model is smaller than that of fibres. We conclude that further investigation of the modelling of sheet dynamics is necessary to fully understand the impact of tissue structure on cardiac deformation.

Chaste - Cancer, Heart And Soft Tissue Environment - is an open source C++ library for the computational simulation of mathematical models developed for physiology and biology. Code development has been driven by two initial applications: cardiac electrophysiology and cancer development. A large number of cardiac electrophysiology studies have been enabled and performed, including high-performance computational investigations of defibrillation on realistic human cardiac geometries. New models for the initiation and growth of tumours have been developed. In particular, cell-based simulations have provided novel insight into the role of stem cells in the colorectal crypt. Chaste is constantly evolving and is now being applied to a far wider range of problems. The code provides modules for handling common scientific computing components, such as meshes and solvers for ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs/PDEs). Re-use of these components avoids the need for researchers to 're-invent the wheel' with each new project, accelerating the rate of progress in new applications. Chaste is developed using industrially-derived techniques, in particular test-driven development, to ensure code quality, re-use and reliability. In this article we provide examples that illustrate the types of problems Chaste can be used to solve, which can be run on a desktop computer. We highlight some scientific studies that have used or are using Chaste, and the insights they have provided. The source code, both for specific releases and the development version, is available to download under an open source Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD) licence at http://www.cs.ox.ac.uk/chaste, together with details of a mailing list and links to documentation and tutorials.

PurposeIn this study we investigate the disease etiology in 12 patients with de novo variants in FAR1 all resulting in an amino acid change at position 480 (p.Arg480Cys/His/Leu).MethodsFollowing next-generation sequencing and clinical phenotyping, functional characterization was performed in patients' fibroblasts using FAR1 enzyme analysis, FAR1 immunoblotting/immunofluorescence, and lipidomics.ResultsAll patients had spastic paraparesis and bilateral congenital/juvenile cataracts, in most combined with speech and gross motor developmental delay and truncal hypotonia. FAR1 deficiency caused by biallelic variants results in defective ether lipid synthesis and plasmalogen deficiency. In contrast, patients' fibroblasts with the de novo FAR1 variants showed elevated plasmalogen levels. Further functional studies in fibroblasts showed that these variants cause a disruption of the plasmalogen-dependent feedback regulation of FAR1 protein levels leading to uncontrolled ether lipid production.ConclusionHeterozygous de novo variants affecting the Arg480 residue of FAR1 lead to an autosomal dominant disorder with a different disease mechanism than that of recessive FAR1 deficiency and a diametrically opposed biochemical phenotype. Our findings show that for patients with spastic paraparesis and bilateral cataracts, FAR1 should be considered as a candidate gene and added to gene panels for hereditary spastic paraplegia, cerebral palsy, and juvenile cataracts.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine how faculty staff on health and social care programmes support students with mental health issues. Design/methodology/approach: The study used a qualitative survey design to gain in-depth information on faculty staff experiences. Seventy-one faculty staff at two universities in the South East of England out of an eligible population of 115 staff responded to an anonymous online questionnaire which were thematically analysed. Findings: The findings indicated that faculty staff faced uncertainties in providing support to students with mental health needs. They reported tensions between their academic, professional and pastoral roles. There was a wide recognition that supporting students was physically and emotionally demanding for faculty staff and especially challenging when their roles and expectations were unclear. This was compounded by lack of explicit guidelines and an apparent severed connection between faculty staff and student support services. Practical implications: A need for clearly defined roles and responsibilities for faculty staff in supporting students with mental health needs including a review of their pastoral role were identified. The study reinforces the need for effective collaborative arrangements and collective decision making and clearer procedures in the planning and implementation of students' personal support plans. A concerted effort into adopting a transpersonal approach which incorporates mental health staff awareness training, restorative spaces for reflection and supportive pathways for faculty staff are recommended. Originality/value: This paper provides rare empirical evidence of faculty staff views on their role in supporting students with mental health needs on health and social care programmes.

Large-scale genome sequencing is poised to provide a substantial increase in the rate of discovery of disease-associated mutations, but the functional interpretation of such mutations remains challenging. Here we show that deletions of a sequence on human chromosome 16 that we term the intestine-critical region (ICR) cause intractable congenital diarrhoea in infants1,2. Reporter assays in transgenic mice show that the ICR contains a regulatory sequence that activates transcription during the development of the gastrointestinal system. Targeted deletion of the ICR in mice caused symptoms that recapitulated the human condition. Transcriptome analysis revealed that an unannotated open reading frame (Percc1) flanks the regulatory sequence, and the expression of this gene was lost in the developing gut of mice that lacked the ICR. Percc1-knockout mice displayed phenotypes similar to those observed upon ICR deletion in mice and patients, whereas an ICR-driven Percc1 transgene was sufficient to rescue the phenotypes found in mice that lacked the ICR. Together, our results identify a gene that is critical for intestinal function and underscore the need for targeted in vivo studies to interpret the growing number of clinical genetic findings that do not affect known protein-coding genes.

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