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Extreme biomass burning (BB) events, such as those seen during the 2019–2020 Australian bushfire season, are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change. Ground-based observations of these events can provide useful information on the macro- and micro-physical properties of the plumes, but these observations are sparse, especially in regions which are at risk of intense bushfire events. Satellite observations of extreme BB events provide a unique perspective, with the newest generation of geostationary imagers, such as the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), observing entire continents at moderate spatial and high temporal resolution. However, current passive satellite retrieval methods struggle to capture the high values of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) seen during these BB events. Accurate retrievals are necessary for global and regional studies of shortwave radiation, air quality modelling and numerical weather prediction. To address these issues, the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm has used AHI data to measure extreme BB plumes from the 2019–2020 Australian bushfire season. The sensitivity of the retrieval to the assumed optical properties of BB plumes is explored by comparing retrieved AOT with AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level-1.5 data over the AERONET site at Tumbarumba, New South Wales, between 1 December 2019 at 00:00 UTC and 3 January 2020 at 00:00 UTC. The study shows that for AOT values > 2, the sensitivity to the assumed optical properties is substantial. The ORAC retrievals and AERONET data are compared against the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Aerosol Retrieval Product (ARP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue over land, MODIS MAIAC, Sentinel-3 SYN and VIIRS Deep Blue products. The comparison shows the ORAC retrieval significantly improves coverage of optically thick plumes relative to the JAXA ARP, with approximately twice as many pixels retrieved and peak retrieved AOT values 1.4 times higher than the JAXA ARP. The ORAC retrievals have accuracy scores of 0.742–0.744 compared to the values of 0.718–0.833 for the polar-orbiting satellite products, despite successfully retrieving approximately 28 times as many pixels over the study period as the most successful polar-orbiting satellite product. The AHI and MODIS satellite products are compared for three case studies covering a range of BB plumes over Australia. The results show good agreement between all products for plumes with AOT values ≤ 2. For extreme BB plumes, the ORAC retrieval finds values of AOT > 15, significantly higher than those seen in events classified as extreme by previous studies, although with high uncertainty. A combination of hard limits in the retrieval algorithms and misclassification of BB plumes as cloud prevents the JAXA and MODIS products from returning AOT values significantly greater than 5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric aerosols and their impact on cloud properties remain the largest uncertainty in the human forcing of the climate system. By increasing the concentration of cloud droplets (Nd), aerosols reduce droplet size and increase the reflectivity of clouds (a negative radiative forcing). Central to this climate impact is the susceptibility of cloud droplet number to aerosol (ß), the diversity of which explains much of the variation in radiative forcing in global climate models. This has made measuring ß a key target for developing observational constraints of the aerosol forcing. While the aerosol burden of the clean, pre-industrial atmosphere has been demonstrated as a key uncertainty for the aerosol forcing, here we show that the behaviour of clouds under these clean conditions is of equal importance for understanding the spread in radiative forcing estimates between models and observations. This means that the uncertainty in the aerosol impact on clouds is, counterintuitively, driven by situations with little aerosol. Discarding clean conditions produces a close agreement between different model and observational estimates of the cloud response to aerosol, but does not provide a strong constraint on the radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions. This makes constraining aerosol behaviour in clean conditions an important goal for future observational studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent years have seen the increasing inclusion of per-retrieval prognostic (predictive) uncertainty estimates within satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data sets, providing users with quantitative tools to assist in optimal use of these data. Prognostic estimates contrast with diagnostic (i.e. relative to some external truth) ones, which are typically obtained using sensitivity and/or validation analyses. Up to now, however, the quality of these uncertainty estimates has not been routinely assessed. This study presents a review of existing prognostic and diagnostic approaches for quantifying uncertainty in satellite AOD retrievals, and presents a general framework to evaluate them, based on the expected statistical properties of ensembles of estimated uncertainties and actual retrieval errors. It is hoped that this framework will be adopted as a complement to existing AOD validation exercises; it is not restricted to AOD and can in principle be applied to other quantities for which a reference validation data set is available. This framework is then applied to assess the uncertainties provided by several satellite data sets (seven over land, five over water), which draw on methods from the empirical to sensitivity analyses to formal error propagation, at 12 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. The AERONET sites are divided into those where it is expected that the techniques will perform well, and those for which some complexity about the site may provide a more severe test. Overall all techniques show some skill in that larger estimated uncertainties are generally associated with larger observed errors, although they are sometimes poorly calibrated (i.e. too small/large in magnitude). No technique uniformly performs best. For powerful formal uncertainty propagation approaches such as Optimal Estimation the results illustrate some of the difficulties in appropriate population of the covariance matrices required by the technique. When the data sets are confronted by a situation strongly counter to the retrieval forward model (e.g. potential mixed land/water surfaces, or aerosol optical properties outside of the family of assumptions), some algorithms fail to provide a retrieval, while others do but with a quantitatively unreliable uncertainty estimate. The discussion suggests paths forward for refinement of these techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the key features of the Community Cloud retrieval for CLimate (CC4CL) processing algorithm. We focus on the novel features of the framework: the optimal estimation approach in general, explicit uncertainty quantification through rigorous propagation of all known error sources into the final product, and the consistency of our long-term, multi-platform time-series provided at various resolutions, from 0.5° to 0.02°. By describing all key input data and processing steps, we aim to inform the user about important features of this new retrieval framework, and its potential applicability to climate studies. We provide an overview of the retrieved and derived output variables. These are analysed for four, partly very challenging, scenes collocated with CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) observations in the high-latitudes and over the Gulf of Guinea/West Africa. The results show that CC4CL provides very realistic estimates of cloud top height and cover for optically thick clouds but, where optically thin clouds overlap, returns a height between the two layers. CC4CL is a unique, coherent, multi-instrument cloud property retrieval framework applicable to passive sensor data of several EO missions. Through its flexibility, CC4CL offers the opportunity for combining a variety of historic and current EO missions into one data set, which, compared to single sensor retrievals, is improved in terms of accuracy and temporal sampling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Community Cloud retrieval for Climate (CC4CL) is a cloud property retrieval system for satellite-based multispectral imagers and is an important component of the Cloud Climate Change Initiative (Cloud_cci) project. In this paper we discuss the optimal estimation retrieval of cloud optical thickness, effective radius and cloud top pressure based on the Optimal Retrieval of Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) algorithm. Key to this method is the forward model which, includes the clear-sky model, the liquid water and ice cloud models, the surface model including a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), the "fast" radiative transfer solution (which includes a multiple scattering treatment) All of these components and their assumptions and limitations will be discussed in detail. The forward model provides the accuracy appropriate for our retrieval method. The errors are comparable to the instrument noise for cloud optical thicknesses greater than 10. At optical thicknesses less than 10 modelling errors become more significant. The retrieval method is then presented describing optimal estimation in general, the non-linear inversion method employed, measurement and a priori inputs, the propagation of input uncertainties and the calculation of subsidiary quantities that are derived from the retrieval results. An evaluation of the retrieval was performed using measurements simulated with noise levels appropriate for the MODIS instrument. Results show errors less than 10 % for cloud optical thicknesses greater than 10. Results for clouds of optical thicknesses less than 10 have errors ranging up to 20 %. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]