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When Postmaster General Creswell penned his concern about the impact 2 of electronic diversion on his postal organization, the year was 1872. General Creswell, it turned out, fretted unnecessarily. Facsimile did not achieve commercial viability until roughly a century after his tenure as Postmaster General and today that technology is fading rapidly from the communication scene. Moreover, it never appears to have significantly affected physical letter volumes. However, if General Creswell were leading a major postal organization today, he likely would feel threatened by the potential of Internet communication to cause electronic diversion of physical mail. Should recent technology developments cause the oft-predicted (but so far incorrect) inflection point that would mark the beginning of declining mail volumes. the implications from a management standpoint will be profound. The relatively fixed nature of postal costs suggest that volume declines must be offset though improved productivity, reduced cost of inputs, revenue from new products that share common costs, or reduced level of universal service.

Managing Change in the Postal and Delivery Industries brings together practitioners, postal administrators, the express industry, regulators, economists and lawyers to examine the important policy and regulatory issues facing the postal and delivery industries. This volume reviews such topics as international postal policy, the universal service obligation, regulation and competition, entry and the role of scale and scope economics, cost analysis in postal services, and service standards. This book provides a unique perspective on the problems facing postal and delivery networks.

Current Directions in Postal Reform brings together leading practitioners, worldwide postal administrations, and the courier industry as well as a number of regulators, academic economists, mailers and lawyers, to examine some of the major policy and regulatory issues facing the postal and delivery industry. Issues addressed include international postal policy; the universal service obligation; regulation; competition, entry, and the role of scale and scope economies; the nature and role of cost analysis in the postal service; productivity; interaction of law and economics; and service standards.

xiii • We have almost the cheapest letter price in the OEeD. • We've quadrupled the retail outlets where you can buy stamps, but closed three quarters of our Post Offices. On time delivery is better than 97%. • The workforce has been reduced by 40%, with a 25% increase in volumes over the period. Real unit costs, measured by total real expenditure divided by total volumes, have been reduced by over 20%. What do these results and achievements mean for policy setters around the world? In particular, do these results for New Zealand Post prove that it is a commercial business, and what are the lessons for other postal businesses? Market Forces New Zealand Post presently has a limited letter monopoly, a 45 cent letter price against an 80 cent competitive floor price. The existence of this level of protection somehow negates the company's commercial achievements. The combination of high efficiency and low prices cannot persuade everyone that the results are not my view, are the only ones that can solely monopoly driven. Market forces, in answer my question: is New Zealand Post a commercial organization? We need the test offree and open competition to see whether we've got the business formula right. Before advancing this argument, which in essence is the case for deregulation, it may be useful to distinguish between market behavior and Post behavior.