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This study examines the justice system's decision that sexual violence, particularly rape, is not an economic crime. The authors estimate the tangible and intangible financial costs of sexual violence in Michigan. In 1996, rape and sexual assault cost Michigan more than $6.5 billion, most of which came in the form of intangible costs. Sex-offense homicide cost more than $18 million, two thirds of which was intangible costs. If divided equally as a 'rape tax,' each resident of Michigan would have paid nearly $700 in 1996 to cover the cost of sexual violence. The implication is that prevention is the best way to reduce the high cost of sexual violence. Furthermore, rape and sexual assault need to be identified as a public health issue to raise awareness about sexual violence. Finally, courts and prosecutors need to think about sexual violence as an economic crime to better protect victims and survivors of sexual violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study provides an update to the status of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada building upon our initial analysis conducted in 2020 by incorporating an additional two years of data., Objective: First, we aim to summarize the status of the pandemic in Canada when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in Canada and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Canada., Methods: This longitudinal study analyzed trends in traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates for COVID-19 transmissions and deaths in Canada from June 2020 to May 2023. We also used sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. For these sequences, we used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. We used t-tests of dynamic panel regression coefficients to measure the persistence of COVID-19 transmissions around the WHO declaration. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether provincial and territorial weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with six months of data across the sample period., Results: Canada's speed remained below the outbreak threshold for eight months by the time of the WHO declaration ending the COVID-19 emergency of international concern. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficient remained statistically significant and positive (1.074, P-value <.001), the 7-day coefficient was negative and small in magnitude (-0.080, P-value .02). Furthermore, shift parameters for either of the two most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were negligible (0.003 and 0.018, respectively, with P-values of .75 and .31), meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had remained stable in the two weeks around the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten became entirely insignificant from mid-October 2022 onward., Conclusions: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Canada, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for eight months ahead of the WHO declaration. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had largely ended in Canada by the time of the WHO declaration. These results can inform future public health interventions and strategies in Canada, as well as contribute to the global understanding of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: This study updates the initial COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2020 by providing 2 additional years of data for the region., Objective: First, we aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in SSA when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an end to the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aimed to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in SSA., Methods: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and used Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t-test to assess whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with a rolling 6-month window of data across the sample period., Results: Speed for the region remained well below the outbreak threshold before and after the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. The 7-day persistence coefficient remained somewhat large (1.11) and statistically significant. However, both shift parameters for the weeks around the WHO declaration were negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had become recently smaller. From November 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to 10 was insignificant for the entire sample period., Conclusions: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in SSA, the region never reached outbreak status, and the weekly transmission rate remained below 1 case per 100,000 population for well over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold for its classification as a pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic ended in SSA by the time the WHO made its declaration., (©Alexander L Lundberg, Alan G Soetikno, Scott A Wu, Egon A Ozer, Sarah B Welch, Maryann Mason, Robert L Murphy, Claudia Hawkins, Yingxuan Liu, Charles B Moss, Robert J Havey, Chad J Achenbach, Lori A Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 23.10.2024.)

Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects., Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022., Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place., Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB., Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings., (© Alex Lars Lundberg, James Alan Fox, Hassan Mohammad, Maryann Mason, Doreen Salina, David Victorson, Ruben Parra-Cardona, Lori Ann Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org).)

Background: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Central Asia we conducted during the first year of the pandemic by providing 2 additional years of data for the region. The historical context provided through additional data can inform regional preparedness and early responses to infectious outbreaks of either the SARS-CoV-2 virus or future pathogens in Central Asia., Objective: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Central Asia when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Central Asia., Methods: Traditional surveillance metrics, including counts and rates of COVID-19 transmissions and deaths, and enhanced surveillance indicators, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, were used to measure shifts in the pandemic. To identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period., Results: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were relatively small in magnitude (0.125 and 0.347, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were both significant and negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became entirely insignificant for the first time in March 2023., Conclusions: Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in Central Asia, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for 7 months ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 appeared to be endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of a pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics suggest the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration., (©Alexander L Lundberg, Egon A Ozer, Scott A Wu, Alan G Soetikno, Sarah B Welch, Yingxuan Liu, Robert J Havey, Robert L Murphy, Claudia Hawkins, Maryann Mason, Chad J Achenbach, Lori A Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 28.08.2024.)

Background: This study updates our findings from the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance we first conducted in South Asia in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the public health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023., Objective: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia., Methods: In addition to updating the traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from our original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period., Results: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases 7 days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic., Conclusions: While COVID-19 continued to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system., (©Lori A Post, Alan G Soetikno, Scott A Wu, Claudia Hawkins, Maryann Mason, Egon A Ozer, Robert L Murphy, Sarah B Welch, Yingxuan Liu, Robert J Havey, Charles B Moss, Chad J Achenbach, Alexander L Lundberg. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 26.08.2024.)

Background: Prevention strategies for suicide emphasize restrictions on firearm access. These restrictions may lose efficacy if individuals substitute other lethal suicide methods. Aims: The objective of this study is to determine the extent to which individuals who die by suicide in the United States substitute hanging for firearm injury. Methods: This study is a repeated cross-sectional analysis of suicide deaths in the United States from 2003 to 2021. Multiple regression was used to estimate the effect of firearm access proxies on individual suicide methods (hanging vs. firearm injury). Results: The probability of death by hanging was significantly and negatively associated with proxies of firearm access. Limitations: This study does not compare crude rates of suicide by state, which rise on average with rates of firearm ownership. The National Violent Death Reporting System expanded over the sample period, so early years have incomplete ascertainment. Rates of gun ownership and gun safety law scales are measured as proxies. Conclusions: Although means restriction around firearm access is a critical tool for suicide prevention, complementary strategies for prevention around hanging merit further study.

Background: In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023., Objective: We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels., Methods: In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period., Results: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023., Conclusions: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear., (©Alexander L Lundberg, Scott A Wu, Alan G Soetikno, Claudia Hawkins, Robert L Murphy, Robert J Havey, Egon A Ozer, Charles B Moss, Sarah B Welch, Maryann Mason, Yingxuan Liu, Lori A Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 21.06.2024.)

Background: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region., Objective: The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023., Methods: In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023., Results: The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward., Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration., (©Alan G Soetikno, Alexander L Lundberg, Egon A Ozer, Scott A Wu, Sarah B Welch, Maryann Mason, Yingxuan Liu, Robert J Havey, Robert L Murphy, Claudia Hawkins, Charles B Moss, Lori Ann Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 12.06.2024.)

Background: In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC., Objective: This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region., Methods: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023., Results: The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward., Conclusions: Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system., (©Lori Ann Post, Scott A Wu, Alan G Soetikno, Egon A Ozer, Yingxuan Liu, Sarah B Welch, Claudia Hawkins, Charles B Moss, Robert L Murphy, Maryann Mason, Robert J Havey, Alexander L Lundberg. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 17.05.2024.)

Background: Opioid overdose death rates are increasing for adults aged 55 and older, with especially high rates in large urban areas. In parallel, admissions to treatment programs for older adults using illicit substances are increasing as well. Despite these trends, there is a lack of information about older adults who use non-medical opioids (NMO) and even less knowledge about their health and service encounters. Conducted in Chicago, Illinois, this qualitative study explores the perspectives of health care and harm reduction service providers who work with older adults using non-medical opioids., Methods: The study used snowball sampling to locate participants with expertise in working with older adults who use non-medical opioids. In total, we conducted 26 semi-structured interviews from September 2021-August 2022. We explored questions regarding participants' perceptions of older adult opioid use patterns, comorbidities, and involvement in harm reduction outreach and opioid use disorder treatment., Results: Many of the providers we interviewed consider older adults who use NMO as a distinct population that employ unique use behaviors with the intent to protect them from opioid overdose. However, these same unique behaviors may potentiate their risk for overdose in today's climate. Providers report initial encounters that are not care seeking for opioid use and primarily oriented around health conditions. Older adults who use non-medical opioids are seen as complex patients due to the need to diagnostically untangle symptoms of substance use from co-morbidities and conditions associated with aging. Treatment for this population is also viewed as complicated due to the interactions between aging, comorbidities, and substance use. Providers also noted that older adults who use NMO have use behaviors that make them less visible to outreach and treatment service providers, potentially putting them at increased risk for overdose and health conditions associated with opioid use., Conclusions: Findings from this study are intended to inform future research on care provision for older adults who use non-medical opioids and may be especially applicable to large urban reas with histories of opioid use dating back to earlier drug epidemics of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

While historically viewed as an insulin insensitive organ, it is now accepted that insulin has a role in brain physiology. Changes in brain insulin and IGF1 signaling have been associated with neurological diseases, however the molecular factors regulating brain insulin sensitivity remain uncertain. In this study, we proposed that a recently described protein, termed Inceptor, may play a role in brain insulin and IGF1 resistance. We studied Inceptor in healthy and diseased nervous tissue to understand the distribution of the protein and examine how it may change in states of insulin resistance. We found that Inceptor is in fact present in cerebellum, hippocampus, hypothalamus, and cortex of the brain in neurons, with higher levels in cortex of female compared to male mice. We also confirmed that Inceptor colocalized with IR and IGF1R in brain. We saw little difference in insulin receptor signaling following Inceptor knockdown in neuron cultures, or in Inceptor levels with high-fat diet in mouse or Alzheimer's disease in mouse or human tissue. These results all provide significant advancements to our understanding of Inceptor in the brain. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION: The Stage 1 registered report manuscript was accepted-in-principle on 9 August 2022. This manuscript was registered through Open Science Forum (OSF) on 24 August 2022 and is available here: https://osf.io/9q8sw ., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Gender-based violence (GBV) is a global public health and human rights problem that is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors for a multitude of interpersonal, cultural, and economic reasons. Through sudden disruptions in the microclimate of a region, climate shocks often have a negative impact on food security, which correlates with increases in GBV. Associations between the various combinations of GBV, climate change, and food insecurity have been documented in the growing international literature, but questions remain about these associations that require further clarification. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 provides insight through a real time demonstration into these interactions. This review of the global literature examines the interplay between GBV, climate change, and food insecurity-including recent literature regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. This review covers original research studies employing both quantitative and qualitative methodology, those that conducted secondary analyses of existing data sources and perspective pieces derived from observed evidence. An additional analytic layer of system dynamics modeling allowed for the integration of findings from the scoping review and discovery of additional insights into the interplay between disasters, food insecurity, and GBV. Findings from this review suggest that the development and adaptation of evidence-based, focused interventions and policies to reduce the effects of climate shocks and bolster food security may ultimately decrease GBV prevalence and impact., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Agrawal et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Altered mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) occurs in neurodegenerative disorders like Alzheimer's disease (AD); how mtDNA synthesis is linked to neurodegeneration is poorly understood. We previously discovered Nutrient-induced Mitochondrial Activity (NiMA), an inter-organelle signaling pathway where nutrient-stimulated lysosomal mTORC1 activity regulates mtDNA replication in neurons by a mechanism sensitive to amyloid-β oligomers (AβOs), a primary factor in AD pathogenesis (Norambuena et al., 2018). Using 5-ethynyl-2'-deoxyuridine (EdU) incorporation into mtDNA of cultured neurons, along with photoacoustic and mitochondrial metabolic imaging of cultured neurons and mouse brains, we show these effects being mediated by mTORC1-catalyzed T40 phosphorylation of superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1). Mechanistically, tau, another key factor in AD pathogenesis and other tauopathies, reduced the lysosomal content of the tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC), thereby increasing NiMA and suppressing SOD1 activity and mtDNA synthesis. AβOs inhibited these actions. Dysregulation of mtDNA synthesis was observed in fibroblasts derived from tuberous sclerosis (TS) patients, who lack functional TSC and elevated SOD1 activity was also observed in human AD brain. Together, these findings imply that tau and SOD1 couple nutrient availability to mtDNA replication, linking mitochondrial dysfunction to AD., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta., Objective: The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred., Methods: We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate., Results: Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak., Conclusions: These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts., (©Alexander L Lundberg, Ramon Lorenzo-Redondo, Judd F Hultquist, Claudia A Hawkins, Egon A Ozer, Sarah B Welch, P V Vara Prasad, Chad J Achenbach, Janine I White, James F Oehmke, Robert L Murphy, Robert J Havey, Lori A Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 03.06.2022.)

Background: Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus carry differential risks to public health. The Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, first identified in Botswana on November 11, 2021, has spread globally faster than any previous variant of concern. Understanding the transmissibility of Omicron is vital in the development of public health policy., Objective: The aim of this study is to compare SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks driven by Omicron to those driven by prior variants of concern in terms of both the speed and magnitude of an outbreak., Methods: We analyzed trends in outbreaks by variant of concern with validated surveillance metrics in several southern African countries. The region offers an ideal setting for a natural experiment given that most outbreaks thus far have been driven primarily by a single variant at a time. With a daily longitudinal data set of new infections, total vaccinations, and cumulative infections in countries in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated how the emergence of Omicron has altered the trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. We used the Arellano-Bond method to estimate regression coefficients from a dynamic panel model, in which new infections are a function of infections yesterday and last week. We controlled for vaccinations and prior infections in the population. To test whether Omicron has changed the average trajectory of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, we included an interaction between an indicator variable for the emergence of Omicron and lagged infections., Results: The observed Omicron outbreaks in this study reach the outbreak threshold within 5-10 days after first detection, whereas other variants of concern have taken at least 14 days and up to as many as 35 days. The Omicron outbreaks also reach peak rates of new cases that are roughly 1.5-2 times those of prior variants of concern. Dynamic panel regression estimates confirm Omicron has created a statistically significant shift in viral spread., Conclusions: The transmissibility of Omicron is markedly higher than prior variants of concern. At the population level, the Omicron outbreaks occurred more quickly and with larger magnitude, despite substantial increases in vaccinations and prior infections, which should have otherwise reduced susceptibility to new infections. Unless public health policies are substantially altered, Omicron outbreaks in other countries are likely to occur with little warning., (©Alexander L Lundberg, Ramon Lorenzo-Redondo, Egon A Ozer, Claudia A Hawkins, Judd F Hultquist, Sarah B Welch, PV Vara Prasad, James F Oehmke, Chad J Achenbach, Robert L Murphy, Janine I White, Robert J Havey, Lori Ann Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 31.01.2022.)

Importance: Rates of opioid overdose deaths are increasing for older adults. Less is known about these deaths compared with those of younger adults., Objective: To analyze rate variation among opioid overdose deaths in older adults by sex and by race and ethnicity over time., Design, Setting, and Participants: This 21-year longitudinal cross-sectional study of adults who died due to opioid overdose at 55 years or older stratified by sex and by race and ethnicity used data from the Multiple Cause of Death database from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. The data include all opioid overdose deaths among this age group that occurred between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2019 (N = 79 893)., Exposures: Sex and racial and ethnic groups., Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of opioid overdose deaths per 100 000 population by sex and by race and ethnicity for persons 55 years or older., Results: During the period 1999 to 2019, 79 893 US residents 55 years or older died due to an opioid overdose. Among these individuals, 79.97% were aged 55 to 64 years, and 58.98% were men. Annual numbers of deaths increased over time from 518 in 1999 to 10 292 in 2019. Annual rates of opioid overdose deaths per 100 000 persons 55 years or older increased over time and ranged from 0.90 in 1999 to 10.70 in 2019. Substantial variation by sex and by race and ethnicity was found. In 2013, rates among non-Hispanic Black men began to diverge from those of other demographic subgroups. By 2019, the opioid overdose fatality rate among non-Hispanic Black men 55 years or older was 40.03 per 100 000 population, 4 times greater than the overall opioid overdose fatality rate of 10.70 per 100 000 for persons of the same age., Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal cross-sectional study of US adults who died due to opioid overdose, the burden of opioid overdose deaths among older adults since 2013 was most concentrated among non-Hispanic Black men. Deaths among non-Hispanic Black men were disproportionality represented in the overall increase in the rate of opioid overdose deaths among older adults. Further research is needed to inform policy and practice.

Background: Over 200 million women and girls worldwide have suffered from the partial to total removal of external female genitalia for nonmedical purposes, referred to as female genital mutilation (FGM). Survivors of FGM may develop debilitating physical and psychological long-term sequelae. This is the first study to examine the scope of the extant surgical literature on the management of FGM-related morbidity., Methods: A systematic scoping review of five major research citation databases was conducted., Results: A total of 190 articles from 29 countries met the inclusion criteria. The majority (76%) were primary source articles and from obstetrics and gynecology literature (71%). Reported interventions for FGM-related morbidity were defibulation, cyst excision, clitoral and vulvar reconstruction, urological reconstruction, peripartum procedures, labial adhesion release, and reinfibulation., Conclusions: Surgery for FGM complications spans multiple specialties, which suggests multidisciplinary collaboration benefit. Plastic and reconstructive surgeons have a clear role in the multidisciplinary care team for these patients. This scoping review identified a paucity of high-quality evidence with respect to functional quality of life outcomes and long-term follow-up., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None to disclose., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Truncus arteriosus is a congenital heart defect with high resource use, cost, and mortality. Value assessment (outcome relative to cost) can improve quality of care and decrease cost. This study hypothesized that truncus arteriosus repair at a high-volume center would result in better outcomes at lower cost (higher value) compared with a low-volume center., Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed a multicenter cohort of neonates undergoing truncus arteriosus repair (2004 to 2015) by using the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. Multivariate quantile, logistic, and negative binomial regression models were used to evaluate total hospital cost, in-hospital mortality, ventilation days, intensive care unit length of stay (LOS), hospital LOS, and days of inotropic agent use by center volume (high-volume >3/year) and age at repair while adjusting for sex, ethnicity, race, genetic abnormality, prematurity, low birth weight, concurrent interrupted arch repair, and truncal valve repair., Results: Of 1024 neonates with truncus arteriosus, 495 (48%) were treated at high-volume centers. Costs at the 75th percentile were lower at high-volume vs low-volume centers by $28,456 (P = .02) at all ages at repair. Patients at high-volume centers had lower median postoperative ventilation days (5 days vs 6 days; P < .001), intensive care unit LOS (13 days vs 19 days; P < .001), hospital LOS (23 days vs 28 days; P = .02), and inotropic agent use (3 days vs 4 days; P = .004). In-hospital mortality did not differ by center volume., Conclusions: In neonates undergoing truncus arteriosus repair, costs are lower and outcomes are better at high-volume centers, thus resulting in higher value at all ages of repair. Value-based interventions should be considered to improve outcomes and decrease cost in truncus arteriosus care., (Copyright © 2021 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia., Objective: This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks., Methods: We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R., Results: Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India's speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak., Conclusions: Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic., (©Sarah B Welch, Dinushi Amanda Kulasekere, P V Vara Prasad, Charles B Moss, Robert Leo Murphy, Chad J Achenbach, Michael G Ison, Danielle Resnick, Lauren Singh, Janine White, Tariq Z Issa, Kasen Culler, Michael J Boctor, Maryann Mason, James Francis Oehmke, Joshua Marco Mitchell Faber, Lori Ann Post. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org), 17.06.2021.)

Introduction: Presence of a firearm is associated with increased risk of violence and suicide. United States military veterans are at disproportionate risk of suicide. Routine healthcare provider screening of firearm access may prompt counseling on safe storage and handling of firearms. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency with which Veterans Health Administration (VHA) healthcare providers document firearm access in electronic health record (EHR) clinical notes, and whether this varied by patient characteristics., Methods: The study sample is a post-9-11 cohort of veterans in their first year of VHA care, with at least one outpatient care visit between 2012-2017 (N = 762,953). Demographic data, veteran military service characteristics, and clinical comorbidities were obtained from VHA EHR. We extracted clinical notes for outpatient visits to primary, urgent, or emergency clinics (total 105,316,004). Natural language processing and machine learning (ML) approaches were used to identify documentation of firearm access. A taxonomy of firearm terms was identified and manually annotated with text anchored by these terms, and then trained the ML algorithm. The random-forest algorithm achieved 81.9% accuracy in identifying documentation of firearm access., Results: The proportion of patients with EHR-documented access to one or more firearms during their first year of care in the VHA was relatively low and varied by patient characteristics. Men had significantly higher documentation of firearms than women (9.8% vs 7.1%; P < .001) and veterans >50 years old had the lowest (6.5%). Among veterans with any firearm term present, only 24.4% were classified as positive for access to a firearm (24.7% of men and 20.9% of women)., Conclusion: Natural language processing can identify documentation of access to firearms in clinical notes with acceptable accuracy, but there is a need for investigation into facilitators and barriers for providers and veterans to improve a systemwide process of firearm access screening. Screening, regardless of race/ethnicity, gender, and age, provides additional opportunities to protect veterans from self-harm and violence.

Objective: To examine prevalence, demographic, and incident factors associated with opioid-positivity in Illinois suicide decedents who died by causes other than poisoning., Method: Cross-sectional study of Illinois' suicide decedents occurring between January 2015 and December 2017. Data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System. We used Chi-square tests to compare decedent and incident circumstance characteristics by opioid toxicology screen status. Incident narratives were analyzed to obtain physical and mental health histories and circumstances related to fatal injury events., Results: Of 1007 non-poisoning suicide decedents screened for opioids, 16.4% were opioid-positive. White race, age 75 and over, and widowed or unknown marital status were associated with opioid-positivity. Among opioid-positive decedents, 25% had a history of substance use disorder (SUD), 61% depression, and 19% anxiety. The majority (52%) of opioid-positive decedents died by firearm, a higher percentage than opioid-negative decedents., Conclusion: The opioid overdose crisis largely has not overlapped with non-poisoning suicide in this study. Overall, our analyses have not identified additional risk factors for suicide among opioid-positive suicide decedents. However, the overlap between opioid-positivity, SUD, and physical and mental health problems found among decedents in our data suggest several suicide prevention opportunities. These include medication assisted treatment for SUD which has been shown to reduce suicide, screening for opioid/benzodiazepine overlap, and limiting access to lethal means during opioid use. Improved death scene investigations for substances and use of the Prescription Drug Monitoring Program to document prescriptions are needed to further understanding of the role of substances in non-poisoning suicide.

Competing Interests: All authors have completed and submitted the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors form for disclosure of potential conflicts of interest. No potential conflicts of interest were disclosed.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound and differential impacts on metropolitan areas across the United States and around the world. Within the United States, metropolitan areas that were hit earliest with the pandemic and reacted with scientifically based health policy were able to contain the virus by late spring. For other areas that kept businesses open, the first wave in the United States hit in mid-summer. As the weather turns colder, universities resume classes, and people tire of lockdowns, a second wave is ascending in both metropolitan and rural areas. It becomes more obvious that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed at the local level to track recent shifts in the pandemic, rates of increase, and persistence., Objective: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand and manage risk in metropolitan areas. Existing surveillance measures coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until, and after, an effective vaccine is developed. Here, we provide values for novel indicators to measure COVID-19 transmission at the metropolitan area level., Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 260 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the 25 largest US metropolitan areas as a function of the prior number of cases and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel data model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R., Results: Minneapolis and Chicago have the greatest average number of daily new positive results per standardized 100,000 population (which we refer to as speed). Extreme behavior in Minneapolis showed an increase in speed from 17 to 30 (67%) in 1 week. The jerk and acceleration calculated for these areas also showed extreme behavior. The dynamic panel data model shows that Minneapolis, Chicago, and Detroit have the largest persistence effects, meaning that new cases pertaining to a specific week are statistically attributable to new cases from the prior week., Conclusions: Three of the metropolitan areas with historically early and harsh winters have the highest persistence effects out of the top 25 most populous metropolitan areas in the United States at the beginning of their cold weather season. With these persistence effects, and with indoor activities becoming more popular as the weather gets colder, stringent COVID-19 regulations will be more important than ever to flatten the second wave of the pandemic. As colder weather grips more of the nation, southern metropolitan areas may also see large spikes in the number of cases., (©Theresa B Oehmke, Lori A Post, Charles B Moss, Tariq Z Issa, Michael J Boctor, Sarah B Welch, James F Oehmke. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 09.02.2021.)

Background: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19., Objective: The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully., Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19-related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R., Results: COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight., Conclusions: The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia., (©Lori Ann Post, Elana T Benishay, Charles B Moss, Robert Leo Murphy, Chad J Achenbach, Michael G Ison, Danielle Resnick, Lauren Nadya Singh, Janine White, Azraa S Chaudhury, Michael J Boctor, Sarah B Welch, James Francis Oehmke. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 03.02.2021.)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact on governments, health care systems, economies, and populations around the world. Within the East Asia and Pacific region, some countries have mitigated the spread of the novel coronavirus effectively and largely avoided severe negative consequences, while others still struggle with containment. As the second wave reaches East Asia and the Pacific, it becomes more evident that additional SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is needed to track recent shifts, rates of increase, and persistence associated with the pandemic., Objective: The goal of this study is to provide advanced surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission that account for speed, acceleration, jerk, persistence, and weekly shifts, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those countries who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed. We provide novel indicators to measure disease transmission., Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 330 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in East Asia and the Pacific as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R., Results: The standard surveillance metrics for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar were concerning as they had the largest new caseloads at 4301, 2588, and 1387, respectively. When looking at the acceleration of new COVID-19 infections, we found that French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had rates at 3.17, 0.22, and 0.06 per 100,000. These three countries also ranked highest in terms of jerk at 15.45, 0.10, and 0.04, respectively., Conclusions: Two of the most populous countries in East Asia and the Pacific, Indonesia and the Philippines, have alarming surveillance metrics. These two countries rank highest in new infections in the region. The highest rates of speed, acceleration, and positive upwards jerk belong to French Polynesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, and may result in explosive growth. While all countries in East Asia and the Pacific need to be cautious about reopening their countries since outbreaks are likely to occur in the second wave of COVID-19, the country of greatest concern is the Philippines. Based on standard and enhanced surveillance, the Philippines has not gained control of the COVID-19 epidemic, which is particularly troubling because the country ranks 4th in population in the region. Without extreme and rigid social distancing, quarantines, hygiene, and masking to reverse trends, the Philippines will remain on the global top 5 list of worst COVID-19 outbreaks resulting in high morbidity and mortality. The second wave will only exacerbate existing conditions and increase COVID-19 transmissions., (©Lori Ann Post, Jasmine S Lin, Charles B Moss, Robert Leo Murphy, Michael G Ison, Chad J Achenbach, Danielle Resnick, Lauren Nadya Singh, Janine White, Michael J Boctor, Sarah B Welch, James Francis Oehmke. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 01.02.2021.)

Background: The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has led to a global pandemic. The United States has been severely affected, accounting for the most COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide. Without a coordinated national public health plan informed by surveillance with actionable metrics, the United States has been ineffective at preventing and mitigating the escalating COVID-19 pandemic. Existing surveillance has incomplete ascertainment and is limited by the use of standard surveillance metrics. Although many COVID-19 data sources track infection rates, informing prevention requires capturing the relevant dynamics of the pandemic., Objective: The aim of this study is to develop dynamic metrics for public health surveillance that can inform worldwide COVID-19 prevention efforts. Advanced surveillance techniques are essential to inform public health decision making and to identify where and when corrective action is required to prevent outbreaks., Methods: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted COVID-19 data from global public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers for our use case in 50 US states and the District of Colombia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R., Results: Examination of the United States and state data demonstrated that most US states are experiencing outbreaks as measured by these new metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence. Larger US states have high COVID-19 caseloads as a function of population size, density, and deficits in adherence to public health guidelines early in the epidemic, and other states have alarming rates of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence in novel infections. North and South Dakota have had the highest rates of COVID-19 transmission combined with positive acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence. Wisconsin and Illinois also have alarming indicators and already lead the nation in daily new COVID-19 infections. As the United States enters its third wave of COVID-19, all 50 states and the District of Colombia have positive rates of speed between 7.58 (Hawaii) and 175.01 (North Dakota), and persistence, ranging from 4.44 (Vermont) to 195.35 (North Dakota) new infections per 100,000 people., Conclusions: Standard surveillance techniques such as daily and cumulative infections and deaths are helpful but only provide a static view of what has already occurred in the pandemic and are less helpful in prevention. Public health policy that is informed by dynamic surveillance can shift the country from reacting to COVID-19 transmissions to being proactive and taking corrective action when indicators of speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence remain positive week over week. Implicit within our dynamic surveillance is an early warning system that indicates when there is problematic growth in COVID-19 transmissions as well as signals when growth will become explosive without action. A public health approach that focuses on prevention can prevent major outbreaks in addition to endorsing effective public health policies. Moreover, subnational analyses on the dynamics of the pandemic allow us to zero in on where transmissions are increasing, meaning corrective action can be applied with precision in problematic areas. Dynamic public health surveillance can inform specific geographies where quarantines are necessary while preserving the economy in other US areas., (©Lori Ann Post, Tariq Ziad Issa, Michael J Boctor, Charles B Moss, Robert L Murphy, Michael G Ison, Chad J Achenbach, Danielle Resnick, Lauren Nadya Singh, Janine White, Joshua Marco Mitchell Faber, Kasen Culler, Cynthia A Brandt, James Francis Oehmke. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 03.12.2020.)

Background: Since the novel coronavirus emerged in late 2019, the scientific and public health community around the world have sought to better understand, surveil, treat, and prevent the disease, COVID-19. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), many countries responded aggressively and decisively with lockdown measures and border closures. Such actions may have helped prevent large outbreaks throughout much of the region, though there is substantial variation in caseloads and mortality between nations. Additionally, the health system infrastructure remains a concern throughout much of SSA, and the lockdown measures threaten to increase poverty and food insecurity for the subcontinent's poorest residents. The lack of sufficient testing, asymptomatic infections, and poor reporting practices in many countries limit our understanding of the virus's impact, creating a need for better and more accurate surveillance metrics that account for underreporting and data contamination., Objective: The goal of this study is to improve infectious disease surveillance by complementing standardized metrics with new and decomposable surveillance metrics of COVID-19 that overcome data limitations and contamination inherent in public health surveillance systems. In addition to prevalence of observed daily and cumulative testing, testing positivity rates, morbidity, and mortality, we derived COVID-19 transmission in terms of speed, acceleration or deceleration, change in acceleration or deceleration (jerk), and 7-day transmission rate persistence, which explains where and how rapidly COVID-19 is transmitting and quantifies shifts in the rate of acceleration or deceleration to inform policies to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 and food insecurity in SSA., Methods: We extracted 60 days of COVID-19 data from public health registries and employed an empirical difference equation to measure daily case numbers in 47 sub-Saharan countries as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R., Results: Kenya, Ghana, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa have the most observed cases of COVID-19, and the Seychelles, Eritrea, Mauritius, Comoros, and Burundi have the fewest. In contrast, the speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence indicate rates of COVID-19 transmissions differ from observed cases. In September 2020, Cape Verde, Namibia, Eswatini, and South Africa had the highest speed of COVID-19 transmissions at 13.1, 7.1, 3.6, and 3 infections per 100,0000, respectively; Zimbabwe had an acceleration rate of transmission, while Zambia had the largest rate of deceleration this week compared to last week, referred to as a jerk. Finally, the 7-day persistence rate indicates the number of cases on September 15, 2020, which are a function of new infections from September 8, 2020, decreased in South Africa from 216.7 to 173.2 and Ethiopia from 136.7 to 106.3 per 100,000. The statistical approach was validated based on the regression results; they determined recent changes in the pattern of infection, and during the weeks of September 1-8 and September 9-15, there were substantial country differences in the evolution of the SSA pandemic. This change represents a decrease in the transmission model R value for that week and is consistent with a de-escalation in the pandemic for the sub-Saharan African continent in general., Conclusions: Standard surveillance metrics such as daily observed new COVID-19 cases or deaths are necessary but insufficient to mitigate and prevent COVID-19 transmission. Public health leaders also need to know where COVID-19 transmission rates are accelerating or decelerating, whether those rates increase or decrease over short time frames because the pandemic can quickly escalate, and how many cases today are a function of new infections 7 days ago. Even though SSA is home to some of the poorest countries in the world, development and population size are not necessarily predictive of COVID-19 transmission, meaning higher income countries like the United States can learn from African countries on how best to implement mitigation and prevention efforts., International Registered Report Identifier (irrid): RR2-10.2196/21955., (©Lori Ann Post, Salem T Argaw, Cameron Jones, Charles B Moss, Danielle Resnick, Lauren Nadya Singh, Robert Leo Murphy, Chad J Achenbach, Janine White, Tariq Ziad Issa, Michael J Boctor, James Francis Oehmke. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 19.11.2020.)

Background: The Great COVID-19 Shutdown aimed to eliminate or slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The United States has no national policy, leaving states to independently implement public health guidelines that are predicated on a sustained decline in COVID-19 cases. Operationalization of "sustained decline" varies by state and county. Existing models of COVID-19 transmission rely on parameters such as case estimates or R 0 and are dependent on intensive data collection efforts. Static statistical models do not capture all of the relevant dynamics required to measure sustained declines. Moreover, existing COVID-19 models use data that are subject to significant measurement error and contamination., Objective: This study will generate novel metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day lag in the speed of COVID-19 transmission using state government tallies of SARS-CoV-2 infections, including state-level dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections. This study provides the prototype for a global surveillance system to inform public health practice, including novel standardized metrics of COVID-19 transmission, for use in combination with traditional surveillance tools., Methods: Dynamic panel data models were estimated with the Arellano-Bond estimator using the generalized method of moments. This statistical technique allows for the control of a variety of deficiencies in the existing data. Tests of the validity of the model and statistical techniques were applied., Results: The statistical approach was validated based on the regression results, which determined recent changes in the pattern of infection. During the weeks of August 17-23 and August 24-30, 2020, there were substantial regional differences in the evolution of the US pandemic. Census regions 1 and 2 were relatively quiet with a small but significant persistence effect that remained relatively unchanged from the prior 2 weeks. Census region 3 was sensitive to the number of tests administered, with a high constant rate of cases. A weekly special analysis showed that these results were driven by states with a high number of positive test reports from universities. Census region 4 had a high constant number of cases and a significantly increased persistence effect during the week of August 24-30. This change represents an increase in the transmission model R value for that week and is consistent with a re-emergence of the pandemic., Conclusions: Reopening the United States comes with three certainties: (1) the "social" end of the pandemic and reopening are going to occur before the "medical" end even while the pandemic is growing. We need improved standardized surveillance techniques to inform leaders when it is safe to open sections of the country; (2) varying public health policies and guidelines unnecessarily result in varying degrees of transmission and outbreaks; and (3) even those states most successful in containing the pandemic continue to see a small but constant stream of new cases daily., (©James Francis Oehmke, Charles B Moss, Lauren Nadya Singh, Theresa Bristol Oehmke, Lori Ann Post. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 05.10.2020.)

Background and Objectives: Older adults (age 65 and older) use the emergency department (ED) at a rate of nearly 50 ED visits per 100 older adults, accounting for over 23 million ED visits in the US annually, up to 20% of all ED visits. These ED visits are sentinel health events as discharged patients often return to the ED, experience declines in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and disability, or are later hospitalized. Those who are admitted incur increased costs and greater risk for poor outcomes including infections, delirium, and falls. The objective of this randomized controlled trial (RCT) is to evaluate the efficacy of the Geriatric Emergency Department Innovations (GEDI) program, an ED nurse-led geriatric assessment and care coordination program, in decreasing unnecessary health services use and improving Health-Related Quality-of-Life (HRQoL) for older adults in the ED., Methods: Community dwelling older adults aged 65 and older who are vulnerable or frail according to the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) during an ED visit will be randomized to either GEDI (n = 420) or to usual ED care (n = 420). Outcome variables will be assessed during the ED visit and at 7-11 days and 28-32 days post ED visit., Projected Outcomes: The primary outcome is hospitalization or death within 30 days of the ED visit. Secondary outcomes include health service use outcomes (ED visits and hospitalizations), healthcare costs, and HRQoL outcomes [Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) scores: PROMIS-Preference, Physical Function, Ability to Participate in Social Roles and Activities, Anxiety, and Depression]., Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.Gov identifier NCT04115371., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, is a global pandemic with higher mortality and morbidity than any other virus in the last 100 years. Without public health surveillance, policy makers cannot know where and how the disease is accelerating, decelerating, and shifting. Unfortunately, existing models of COVID-19 contagion rely on parameters such as the basic reproduction number and use static statistical methods that do not capture all the relevant dynamics needed for surveillance. Existing surveillance methods use data that are subject to significant measurement error and other contaminants., Objective: The aim of this study is to provide a proof of concept of the creation of surveillance metrics that correct for measurement error and data contamination to determine when it is safe to ease pandemic restrictions. We applied state-of-the-art statistical modeling to existing internet data to derive the best available estimates of the state-level dynamics of COVID-19 infection in the United States., Methods: Dynamic panel data (DPD) models were estimated with the Arellano-Bond estimator using the generalized method of moments. This statistical technique enables control of various deficiencies in a data set. The validity of the model and statistical technique was tested., Results: A Wald chi-square test of the explanatory power of the statistical approach indicated that it is valid (χ 2 10 =1489.84, P<.001), and a Sargan chi-square test indicated that the model identification is valid (χ 2 946 =935.52, P=.59). The 7-day persistence rate for the week of June 27 to July 3 was 0.5188 (P<.001), meaning that every 10,000 new cases in the prior week were associated with 5188 cases 7 days later. For the week of July 4 to 10, the 7-day persistence rate increased by 0.2691 (P=.003), indicating that every 10,000 new cases in the prior week were associated with 7879 new cases 7 days later. Applied to the reported number of cases, these results indicate an increase of almost 100 additional new cases per day per state for the week of July 4-10. This signifies an increase in the reproduction parameter in the contagion models and corroborates the hypothesis that economic reopening without applying best public health practices is associated with a resurgence of the pandemic., Conclusions: DPD models successfully correct for measurement error and data contamination and are useful to derive surveillance metrics. The opening of America involves two certainties: the country will be COVID-19-free only when there is an effective vaccine, and the "social" end of the pandemic will occur before the "medical" end. Therefore, improved surveillance metrics are needed to inform leaders of how to open sections of the United States more safely. DPD models can inform this reopening in combination with the extraction of COVID-19 data from existing websites., (©James Francis Oehmke, Theresa B Oehmke, Lauren Nadya Singh, Lori Ann Post. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 22.09.2020.)

Using a single source of data, such as police records, or combining data from multiple sources results in an undercount of gun-related injuries. To improve gun-related injury surveillance accuracy by using capture-recapture methods, data were culled from law enforcement, emergency departments, emergency medical services, media, and medical examiner records. The data overlap was operationalized using capture-recapture to generate estimates of uncounted gun incidents. Dependencies between data sources were controlled using log-linear modeling for accurate estimates. New Haven, Connecticut. The study population included subjects injuried/killed from a gun projectile. Incidence was measured using capture-recapture. 49 gun injuries occurred within the defined geography. No single source recorded more than 43 gun-related injuries/deaths. Log-linear modeling estimated the actual number of injuries to be 49.1 (95% CI 49-49.9). Capture-recapture may be less useful in large metropolitan areas that cross state geographical boundaries because of how government agency data are aggregated within each state. No single data source achieves complete gun-related case ascertainment. Log-linear and capture-recapture methods significantly improve gun-related injury estimates.

The international community has advocated the adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) as lower-income countries deal with the negative consequences of climate change. Scaling up such policies, practices, and programs successfully will require support from a variety of local stakeholders. Such support requires alignment between CSA solutions and the problem understandings of stakeholders. However, problem understandings can differ across individuals, stakeholder groups, and geographic areas. Consequently, we examine understandings of climate problems and socioeconomic and infrastructure problems related to agriculture among different stakeholder groups in Uganda and Senegal. We operationalized and measured these problem understandings following the detailed guidance of the political will and public will approach for analyzing social change. Semi-structured interviews elicited stakeholder-generated lists of problems for each group. Limited quantification of problem understandings and their relative importance or "ripeness" demonstrates how contexts might shape opportunities for CSA.

Decision makers face difficult choices when tasked with identifying and implementing appropriate mechanisms for protecting the elderly and other vulnerable adults from abuse. A pilot project involving fingerprint-based criminal history background checks for personal care workers in Michigan has supplied an opportunity to examine one such mechanism. In conjunction with the pilot project, we have conducted a stakeholder analysis with the aim of informing decision makers about stakeholder perceptions of standard policy criteria like effectiveness, efficiency, and equity. We employed focus groups and a Web-based survey to collect data from stakeholders. While stakeholders generally see fingerprint-based background checks for personal care workers as potentially effective and as a net benefit, they also point to a variety of contingencies. They also recognize difficulties and constraints for government involvement. This preliminary analysis provides solid foundational information for decision makers and for more extensive benefit-cost analysis.

Background: The Canadian Computed Tomography (CT) Head Rule, a clinical decision rule designed to safely reduce imaging in minor head injury, has been rigorously validated and implemented, and yet expected decreases in CT were unsuccessful. Recent work has identified empathic care as a key component in decreasing CT overuse. Health information technology can hinder the clinician-patient relationship. Patient-centered decision tools to support the clinician-patient relationship are needed to promote evidence-based decisions., Objective: Our objective is to formatively evaluate an electronic tool that not only helps clinicians at the bedside to determine the need for CT use based on the Canadian CT Head Rule but also promotes evidence-based conversations between patients and clinicians regarding patient-specific risk and patients' specific concerns., Methods: User-centered design with practice-based and participatory decision aid development was used to design, develop, and evaluate patient-centered decision support regarding CT use in minor head injury in the emergency department. User experience and user interface (UX/UI) development involved successive iterations with incremental refinement in 4 phases: (1) initial prototype development, (2) usability assessment, (3) field testing, and (4) beta testing. This qualitative approach involved input from patients, emergency care clinicians, health services researchers, designers, and clinical informaticists at every stage., Results: The Concussion or Brain Bleed app is the product of 16 successive iterative revisions in accordance with UX/UI industry design standards. This useful and usable final product integrates clinical decision support with a patient decision aid. It promotes shared use by emergency clinicians and patients at the point of care within the emergency department context. This tablet computer app facilitates evidence-based conversations regarding CT in minor head injury. It is adaptable to individual clinician practice styles. The resultant tool includes a patient injury evaluator based on the Canadian CT Head Rule and provides patient specific risks using pictographs with natural frequencies and cues for discussion about patient concerns., Conclusions: This tool was designed to align evidence-based practices about CT in minor head injury patients. It establishes trust, empowers active participation, and addresses patient concerns and uncertainty about their condition. We hypothesize that, when implemented, the Concussion or Brain Bleed app will support-not hinder-the clinician-patient relationship, safely reduce CT use, and improve the patient experience of care., (©Edward R Melnick, Erik P Hess, George Guo, Maggie Breslin, Kevin Lopez, Anthony J Pavlo, Fuad Abujarad, Seth M Powsner, Lori A Post. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 19.05.2017.)

Immigrant/refugee children sometimes have substantially higher blood lead levels (BLLs) than US-born children in similar environments. We try to understand why, by exploring the relationship between immigration status of mother and the BLLs of US-born children. We compared BLLs of children born in Michigan to immigrant and non-immigrant parents, using the Michigan database of BLL tests for 2002-2005, which includes the child's race, Medicaid eligibility and address. We added census data on socio-demographic/housing characteristics of the child's block group, and information about parents. Low parental education, single parent households, mothers' smoking and drinking, all increase the child's BLL. However, immigrant parents had fewer characteristics associated with high BLL than US born parents, and their children had lower BLLs than children of US-born mothers. Our findings suggest that prior findings of higher BLLs among immigrant/refugee children probably result from them starting life in high-lead environments.

Background: Overuse of computed tomography (CT) for minor head injury continues despite developed and rigorously validated clinical decision rules like the Canadian CT Head Rule (CCHR). Adherence to this sensitive and specific rule could decrease the number of CT scans performed in minor head injury by 35%. But in practice, the CCHR has failed to reduce testing, despite its accurate performance., Objectives: The objective was to identify nonclinical, human factors that promote or inhibit the appropriate use of CT in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with minor head injury., Methods: This was a qualitative study in three phases, each with interview guides developed by a multidisciplinary team. Subjects were recruited from patients treated and released with minor head injuries and providers in an urban academic ED and a satellite community ED. Focus groups of patients (four groups, 22 subjects total) and providers (three groups, 22 subjects total) were conducted until thematic saturation was reached. The findings from the focus groups were triangulated with a cognitive task analysis, including direct observation in the ED (>150 hours), and individual semistructured interviews using the critical decision method with four senior physician subject matter experts. These experts are recognized by their peers for their skill in safely minimizing testing while maintaining patient safety and engagement. Focus groups and interviews were audio recorded and notes were taken by two independent note takers. Notes were entered into ATLAS.ti and analyzed using the constant comparative method of grounded theory, an iterative coding process to determine themes. Data were double-coded and examined for discrepancies to establish consensus., Results: Five core domains emerged from the analysis: establishing trust, anxiety (patient and provider), constraints related to ED practice, the influence of others, and patient expectations. Key themes within these domains included patient engagement, provider confidence and experience, ability to identify and manage patient anxiety, time constraints, concussion knowledge gap, influence of health care providers, and patient expectations to get a CT., Conclusions: Despite high-quality evidence informing use of CT in minor head injury, multiple factors influence the decision to obtain CT in practice. Identifying and disseminating approaches and designing systems that help clinicians establish trust and manage uncertainty within the ED context could optimize CT use in minor head injury., (© 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.)

Few empirical investigations of elder abuse in nursing homes address the frequency and determinants of resident-on-resident abuse (RRA). A random sample of 452 adults with an older adult relative, ≥65 years of age, in a nursing home completed a telephone survey regarding elder abuse experienced by that elder family member. Using a Linear Structural Relations (LISREL) modeling design, the study examined the association of nursing home resident demographic characteristics (e.g., age, gender), health and behavioral characteristics (e.g., diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease, Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADLs), types of staff abuse (e.g., physical, emotional), and factors beyond the immediate nursing home setting (e.g., emotional closeness of resident with family members) with RRA. Mplus statistical software was used for structural equation modeling. Main findings indicated that resident-on-resident mistreatment of elderly nursing home residents is associated with the age of the nursing home resident, all forms of staff abuse, all ADLs and IADLs, and emotional closeness of the older adult to the family., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Little is known about "new media" use, defined as media content created or consumed on demand on an electronic device, by patients in emergency department (ED) settings. The application of this technology has the potential to enhance health care beyond the index visit., Objective: The objectives are to determine the prevalence and characteristics of ED patients' use of new media and to then define and identify the potential of new media to transcend health care barriers and improve the public's health., Methods: Face-to-face, cross-sectional surveys in Spanish and English were given to 5,994 patients who were sequentially enrolled from July 12 to August 30, 2012. Data were collected from across a Southern Connecticut health care system's 3 high-volume EDs for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 6 weeks. The EDs were part of an urban academic teaching hospital, an urban community hospital, and an academic affiliate hospital., Results: A total of 5,994 (89% response rate) ED patients reported identical ownership of cell phones (85%, P<.001) and smartphones (51%, P<.001) that were used for calling (99%, P<.001). The older the patient, however, the less likely it was that the patient used the phone for texting (96% vs 16%, P<.001). Income was positively associated with smartphone ownership (P<.001) and the use of health apps (P>.05) and personal health records (P<.001). Ownership of iPhones compared to Android phones were similar (44% vs 45%, P<.05). Race and ethnicity played a significant role in texting and smartphone ownership, with Hispanics reporting the highest rates of 79% and 56%, respectively, followed by black non-Hispanics at 77% and 54%, respectively, and white non-Hispanics at 65% and 42%, respectively (P<.05)., Conclusions: There is a critical mass of ED patients who use new media. Older persons are less comfortable texting and using smartphone apps. Income status has a positive relationship with smartphone ownership and use of smartphone apps. Regardless of income, however, texting and ownership of smartphones was highest for Latinos and black non-Latinos. These findings have implications for expanding health care beyond the ED visit through the use of cell phones, smartphones, texting, the Internet, and health care apps to improve the health of the public.

Context: Current information-rich electronic health record (EHR) interfaces require large, high-resolution screens running on desktop computers. This interface compromises the provider's already limited time at the bedside by physically separating the patient from the doctor. The case study presented here describes a patient-centered clinical decision support (CDS) design process that aims to bring the physician back to the bedside by integrating a patient decision aid with CDS for shared use by the patient and provider on a touchscreen tablet computer for deciding whether or not to obtain a CT scan for minor head injury in the emergency department, a clinical scenario that could benefit from CDS but has failed previous implementation attempts., Case Description: This case study follows the user-centered design (UCD) approach to build a bedside aid that is useful and usable, and that promotes shared decision-making between patients and their providers using a tablet computer at the bedside. The patient-centered decision support design process focuses on the prototype build using agile software development, but also describes the following: (1) the requirement gathering phase including triangulated qualitative research (focus groups and cognitive task analysis) to understand current challenges, (2) features for patient education, the physician, and shared decision-making, (3) system architecture and technical requirements, and (4) future plans for formative usability testing and field testing., Lessons Learned: We share specific lessons learned and general recommendations from critical insights gained in the patient-centered decision support design process about early stakeholder engagement, EHR integration, external expert feedback, challenges to two users on a single device, project management, and accessibility., Conclusions: Successful implementation of this tool will require seamless integration into the provider's workflow. This protocol can create an effective interface for shared decision-making and safe resource reduction at the bedside in the austere and dynamic clinical environment of the ED and is generalizable for these purposes in other clinical environments as well.