Search

Background Limitations in laboratory testing capacity undermine the ability to quantify the overall burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Methods We undertook a population-based serosurvey for SARS-CoV-2 infection in 26 subdistricts, Gauteng Province (population 15.9 million), South Africa, to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection, infection fatality rate (IFR) triangulating seroprevalence, recorded COVID-19 deaths and excess-mortality data. We employed three-stage random household sampling with a selection probability proportional to the subdistrict size, stratifying the subdistrict census-sampling frame by housing type and then selecting households from selected clusters. The survey started on 4 November 2020, 8 weeks after the end of the first wave (SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test positivity had declined to Results From 6332 individuals in 3453 households, the overall RBD IgG seroprevalence was 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.1–20.1%] and similar in children and adults. The seroprevalence varied from 5.5% to 43.2% across subdistricts. Conservatively, there were 2 897 120 (95% CI: 2 743 907–3 056 866) SARS-CoV-2 infections, yielding an infection rate of 19 090 per 100 000 until 9 January 2021, when 330 336 COVID-19 cases were recorded. The estimated IFR using recorded COVID-19 deaths (n = 8198) was 0.28% (95% CI: 0.27–0.30) and 0.67% (95% CI: 0.64–0.71) assuming 90% of modelled natural excess deaths were due to COVID-19 (n = 21 582). Notably, 53.8% (65/122) of individuals with previous self-reported confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were RBD IgG seronegative. Conclusions The calculated number of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 7.8-fold greater than the recorded COVID-19 cases. The calculated SARS-CoV-2 IFR varied 2.39-fold when calculated using reported COVID-19 deaths (0.28%) compared with excess-mortality-derived COVID-19-attributable deaths (0.67%). Waning RBD IgG may have inadvertently underestimated the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and conversely overestimated the mortality risk. Epidemic preparedness and response planning for future COVID-19 waves will need to consider the true magnitude of infections, paying close attention to excess-mortality trends rather than absolute reported COVID-19 deaths.

ImportanceAlthough child mortality trends have decreased worldwide, deaths among children younger than 5 years of age remain high and disproportionately circumscribed to sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia. Tailored and innovative approaches are needed to increase access, coverage, and quality of child health care services to reduce mortality, but an understanding of health system deficiencies that may have the greatest impact on mortality among children younger than 5 years is lacking.ObjectiveTo investigate which health care and public health improvements could have prevented the most stillbirths and deaths in children younger than 5 years using data from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study used longitudinal, population-based, and mortality surveillance data collected by CHAMPS to understand preventable causes of death. Overall, 3390 eligible deaths across all 7 CHAMPS sites (Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) between December 9, 2016, and December 31, 2021 (1190 stillbirths, 1340 neonatal deaths, 860 infant and child deaths), were included. Deaths were investigated using minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), a postmortem approach using biopsy needles for sampling key organs and fluids.Main Outcomes and MeasuresFor each death, an expert multidisciplinary panel reviewed case data to determine the plausible pathway and causes of death. If the death was deemed preventable, the panel identified which of 10 predetermined health system gaps could have prevented the death. The health system improvements that could have prevented the most deaths were evaluated for each age group: stillbirths, neonatal deaths (aged ResultsOf 3390 deaths, 1505 (44.4%) were female and 1880 (55.5%) were male; sex was not recorded for 5 deaths. Of all deaths, 3045 (89.8%) occurred in a healthcare facility and 344 (11.9%) in the community. Overall, 2607 (76.9%) were deemed potentially preventable: 883 of 1190 stillbirths (74.2%), 1010 of 1340 neonatal deaths (75.4%), and 714 of 860 infant and child deaths (83.0%). Recommended measures to prevent deaths were improvements in antenatal and obstetric care (recommended for 588 of 1190 stillbirths [49.4%], 496 of 1340 neonatal deaths [37.0%]), clinical management and quality of care (stillbirths, 280 [23.5%]; neonates, 498 [37.2%]; infants and children, 393 of 860 [45.7%]), health-seeking behavior (infants and children, 237 [27.6%]), and health education (infants and children, 262 [30.5%]).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this cross-sectional study, interventions prioritizing antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal care could have prevented the most deaths among children younger than 5 years because 75% of deaths among children younger than 5 were stillbirths and neonatal deaths. Measures to reduce mortality in this population should prioritize improving existing systems, such as better access to antenatal care, implementation of standardized clinical protocols, and public education campaigns.

Unprecedented in scale, immense COVID-19 immunization programmes have been rolled out globally. This article explores aspects of hypothetical vaccine acceptability in Soweto, South Africa, shortly before such vaccines became available. Whereas hypothetical acceptance was normative, this has not translated into uptake today, which remains concerningly low in South Africa, especially in Soweto. For that reason, we mobilise anthropological concepts to analyse acceptance, hesitancy, and denial, respectively, to gauge and understand public proclivity to inoculate. We find that COVID-19’s haphazard mediatization generated a ‘field of suspicion’ towards authorities and vaccination, which, amplified by dis- and misinformation, fostered othering, hesitancy, and denial considerably. It remains paramount during vaccination rollouts to unveil and address aspects detrimental to vaccine confidence and selectivity, especially in lower-income groups for underlying, context-specific cultural, spiritual, historical, and socioeconomic reasons. Appropriate mediazation alongside a debunking of counterfactual claims is crucial in driving forward immunization.

Background The current burden of >5 million deaths yearly is the focus of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) to end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years old by 2030. To accelerate progression toward this goal, data are needed that accurately quantify the leading causes of death, so that interventions can target the common causes. By adding postmortem pathology and microbiology studies to other available data, the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network provides comprehensive evaluations of conditions leading to death, in contrast to standard methods that rely on data from medical records and verbal autopsy and report only a single underlying condition. We analyzed CHAMPS data to characterize the value of considering multiple causes of death. Methods and findings We examined deaths identified from December 2016 through November 2020 from 7 CHAMPS sites (in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa), including 741 neonatal, 278 infant, and 241 child, In an analysis of data from the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network, Robert Breiman, Dianna Blau, and colleagues investigate how considering all conditions in the causal chain leading to death informs the identification of deaths attributable to various diagnoses., Author summary Why was this study done? More than 5 million deaths occur annually in children

Background Lower respiratory tract infections are a leading cause of death in young children, but few studies have collected the specimens needed to define the role of specific causes. The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) platform aims to investigate causes of death in children aged Methods We included deaths that occurred between December 2016 and December 2019. Panels determined causes of deaths by reviewing all available data including pathological results from minimally invasive tissue sampling, polymerase chain reaction screening for multiple infectious pathogens in lung tissue, nasopharyngeal swab, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid samples, clinical information from medical records, and verbal autopsies. Results We evaluated 1213 deaths, including 695 in neonates (aged Conclusions RSV is an important cause of child deaths, particularly in young infants. These findings add to the substantial body of literature calling for better treatment and prevention options for RSV in high–mortality rate settings.

Background In South Africa, there are limited data on the burden of diarrhoea at a community level, specifically in older children and adults. This community survey estimated rates of and factors associated with diarrhoea across all ages and determined the proportion of cases presenting to healthcare facilities. Methods Households were enrolled from an existing urban health and demographic surveillance site. A household representative was interviewed to determine associated factors and occurrence of diarrhoea in the household, for all household members, in the past 2 weeks (including symptoms and health seeking behaviour). Diarrhoeal rate of any severity was calculated for 15 years age groups. Factors associated with diarrhoea and health seeking behaviour were investigated using binomial logistic regression. Results Diarrhoeal rate among respondents (2.5 episodes/person-year (95% CI, 1.8–3.5)) was significantly higher than for other household members (1.0 episodes/person-year (95% CI, 0.8–1.4); IRR = 2.4 (95% CI, 1.5–3.7) p p = 0.039). Oral rehydration solution was used in 44.8% of cases. Having a child between 5 and 15 years in the household was associated with diarrhoea (OR = 2.3 (95% CI, 1.3–3.9), p = 0.003) and, while 26.4% of cases sought healthcare, only 4.6% were hospitalised and only 3.4% of cases had a stool specimen collected. While the majority of cases were mild, 13.8% of cases felt they required healthcare but were unable to access it. Conclusion Diarrhoeal rate was high across all age groups in this community; however, older children and adults were less likely to present to healthcare, and are therefore underrepresented through facility-based clinical surveillance. Current diarrhoeal surveillance represents a fraction of the overall cases occurring in the community.

Background: Limitations in laboratory testing capacity undermine the ability to quantify the overall burden of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We undertook a cross-sectional population based sero-survey for SARS-CoV-2 infection in 26 sub-districts, Gauteng Province (population 15·9 million), South Africa. Furthermore, we estimated SARS-CoV-2 mortality risk triangulating seroprevalence, recorded COVID-19 deaths and excess mortality data. Methods: We employed multi-stage random household sampling with selection probability proportional to sub-district size, stratifying sub-district census-sampling frame by housing type and selecting clusters within household type strata. Serum SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) Immunoglobulin G (IgG) was measured using a quantitative assay on Luminex platform. Findings: Overall RBD IgG seroprevalence was 19·1% (95%Confidence interval [CI]: 18·1-20·1%), being similar in children and adults. Seroprevalence varied from 5·5% to 43·2% across sub-districts. Conservatively, there were 2 897 120 (95%CI: 2 743 907-3 056 866) SARS-CoV-2 infections, yielding an incidence of 19 090 per 100 000 until January 9, 2021, when 330 336 COVID-19 cases were recorded. The estimated mortality risk using recorded COVID-19 deaths (n=8198) was 0·28% (95%CI: 0·27-0·30) and 0·67% (95%CI: 0·64-0·71) assuming 90% of modelled natural excess deaths were due to COVID-19 (n=21 582). Notably, 53·8% (65/122) of individuals with previous self-reported confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were RBD IgG sero-negative. Interpretation: The imputed number of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 8·8 fold greater than recorded number of COVID-19 cases. The imputed SARS-CoV-2 infection mortality risk varied 2·39 fold when calculated using reported COVID-19 deaths (0·28%) compared with excess mortality derived COVID-19 attributable deaths (0·67%). Waning of RBD IgG may have inadvertently under-estimated number of SARS-CoV-2 infections, and conversely over-estimated mortality risk, by a factor of two. Funding Information: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests. Ethics Approval Statement: The University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee granted a waiver for formal approval of the survey, which was deemed to be part of public-health good and surveillance to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Electronic signed informed consent was administered to individuals older than 15 years age, parental consent obtained for children

Background In South Africa, there are limited data on the burden of diarrhoea at a community level, specifically in older children and adults. This community survey estimated rates of and risk factors for diarrhoea across all ages and determined the proportion of cases presenting to healthcare facilities. Methods Randomly sampled households were enrolled from an existing urban health and demographic surveillance site. A household representative was interviewed to determine risk factors and occurrence of diarrhoea in the household, for all household members, in the past two weeks (including symptoms and health seeking behaviour). Diarrhoeal rate of any severity was calculated for 15 years age groups. Risk factors for diarrhoea and factors associated with health seeking behaviour were investigated using binomial logistic regression. Results Diarrhoeal rate among respondents (2.5 episodes/person-year (95%CI, 1.8-3.5)) was significantly higher than for other household members (1.0 episodes/person-year (95%CI, 0.8-1.4); IRR=2.4 (95%CI, 1.5-3.7) pConclusion Diarrhoeal rate was high across all age groups in this community; however, older children and adults were less likely to present to healthcare, and are therefore underrepresented through facility-based clinical surveillance.

In 2015, a cluster of respiratory diphtheria cases was reported from KwaZulu-Natal Province in South Africa. By using whole-genome analysis, we characterized 21 Corynebacterium diphtheriae isolates collected from 20 patients and contacts during the outbreak (1 patient was infected with 2 variants of C. diphtheriae). In addition, we included 1 cutaneous isolate, 2 endocarditis isolates, and 2 archived clinical isolates (ca. 1980) for comparison. Two novel lineages were identified, namely, toxigenic sequence type (ST) ST-378 (n = 17) and nontoxigenic ST-395 (n = 3). One archived isolate and the cutaneous isolate were ST-395, suggesting ongoing circulation of this lineage for >30 years. The absence of preexisting molecular sequence data limits drawing conclusions pertaining to the origin of these strains; however, these findings provide baseline genotypic data for future cases and outbreaks. Neither ST has been reported in any other country; this ST appears to be endemic only in South Africa.

CITATION: Fairlie, L. et al. 2020. COVID-19 in pregnancy in South Africa : tracking the epidemic and defining the natural history. South African Medical Journal, 110(9):728-731, doi:10.7196/SAMJ.2020.v110i9.15012.

BACKGROUND In resource-limited settings, clinical parameters, including body weight changes, are used to monitor clinical response. Therefore, we studied body weight changes in patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in different regions of the world. METHODS Data were extracted from the "International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS," a network of ART programmes that prospectively collects routine clinical data. Adults on ART from the Southern, East, West, and Central African and the Asia-Pacific regions were selected from the database if baseline data on body weight, gender, ART regimen, and CD4 count were available. Body weight change over the first 2 years and the probability of body weight loss in the second year were modeled using linear mixed models and logistic regression, respectively. RESULTS Data from 205,571 patients were analyzed. Mean adjusted body weight change in the first 12 months was higher in patients started on tenofovir and/or efavirenz; in patients from Central, West, and East Africa, in men, and in patients with a poorer clinical status. In the second year of ART, it was greater in patients initiated on tenofovir and/or nevirapine, and for patients not on stavudine, in women, in Southern Africa and in patients with a better clinical status at initiation. Stavudine in the initial regimen was associated with a lower mean adjusted body weight change and with weight loss in the second treatment year. CONCLUSIONS Different ART regimens have different effects on body weight change. Body weight loss after 1 year of treatment in patients on stavudine might be associated with lipoatrophy.

An outbreak of respiratory diphtheria occurred in two health districts in the province of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa in 2015. A multidisciplinary outbreak response team was involved in the investigation and management of the outbreak. Fifteen cases of diphtheria were identified, with ages ranging from 4 to 41 years. Of the 12 cases that were under the age of 18 years, 9 (75%) were not fully immunized for diphtheria. The case fatality was 27%. Ninety-three household contacts, 981 school or work contacts and 595 healthcare worker contacts were identified and given prophylaxis against Corynebacterium diphtheriae infection. A targeted vaccination campaign for children aged 6–15 years was carried out at schools in the two districts. The outbreak highlighted the need to improve diphtheria vaccination coverage in the province and to investigate the feasibility of offering diphtheria vaccines to healthcare workers.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., When patients receive an intervention based on whether they score below or above some threshold value on a continuously measured random variable, the intervention will be randomly assigned for patients close to the threshold. The regression discontinuity design exploits this fact to estimate causal treatment effects. In spite of its recent proliferation in economics, the regression discontinuity design has not been widely adopted in epidemiology. We describe regression discontinuity, its implementation, and the assumptions required for causal inference. We show that regression discontinuity is generalizable to the survival and nonlinear models that are mainstays of epidemiologic analysis. We then present an application of regression discontinuity to the much-debated epidemiologic question of when to start HIV patients on antiretroviral therapy. Using data from a large South African cohort (2007–2011), we estimate the causal effect of early versus deferred treatment eligibility on mortality. Patients whose first CD4 count was just below the 200 cells/μL CD4 count threshold had a 35% lower hazard of death (hazard ratio = 0.65 [95% confidence interval = 0.45–0.94]) than patients presenting with CD4 counts just above the threshold. We close by discussing the strengths and limitations of regression discontinuity designs for epidemiology.

This paper examines how care-giving to adults and/or children and care-receiving is associated with the health and wellbeing of older people aged 50+ in rural South Africa. Data used are from a cross-sectional survey adapted from World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted in 2009/10 in rural South Africa. Bivariate statistics and multivariate logistical regression were used to assess the relationship between care-giving and/or care-receiving with functional disability, quality of life or emotional wellbeing, and self-rated health status, adjusted for socio-demographic factors. Sixty-three per cent of 422 older people were care-givers to at least one young adult or child; 27 per cent of older people were care-givers due to HIV-related reasons in young adults; 84 per cent of participants were care-recipients mainly from adult children, grandchildren and spouse. In logistic regressions adjusting for sex, age, marital status, education, receipt of grants, household headship, household wealth and HIV status, care-giving was statistically significantly associated with good functional ability as measured by ability to perform activities of daily living. This relationship was stronger for older people providing care-giving to adults than to children. In contrast, care-givers were less likely to report good emotional wellbeing; again the relationship was stronger for care-givers to adults than children. Simultaneous care-giving and -receiving was likewise associated with good functional ability, but about a 47 per cent lower chance of good emotional wellbeing. Participants who were HIV-infected were more likely to be in better health but less likely to be receiving care than those who were HIV-affected. Our findings suggest a strong relationship between care-giving and poor emotional wellbeing via an economic or psychological stressor pathway. Interventions that improve older people's socio-economic circumstances and reduce financial hardship as well as those that provide social support would go some way towards mitigating this relationship.

ObjectiveTo determine rates of, and factors associated with, disengagement from care in a decentralised antiretroviral programme. MethodsAdults (≥16 years) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme August 2004–March 2011 were included. Disengagement from care was defined as no clinic visit for 180 days, after adjustment for mortality. Cumulative incidence functions for disengagement from care, stratified by year of ART initiation, were obtained; competing-risks regression was used to explore factors associated with disengagement from care. ResultsA total of 4,674 individuals (median age 34 years, 29% male) contributed 13 610 person-years of follow-up. After adjustment for mortality, incidence of disengagement from care was 3.4 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.1–3.8). Estimated retention at 5 years was 61%. The risk of disengagement from care increased with each calendar year of ART initiation (P for trend 200 cells/μl respectively, compared with CD4 count

Objective: To describe and compare the health status, emotional wellbeing, and functional status of older people in Uganda and South Africa who are HIV infected or affected by HIV in their families. Methods: Data came from the general population cohort and Entebbe cohort of the Medical Research Council/Uganda Virus Research Institute, and from the Africa Centre Demographic Information System through cross-sectional surveys in 2009/10 using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE). Analysis was based on 932 people aged 50 years or older (510 Uganda, 422 South Africa). Results: Participants in South Africa were slightly younger (median age - 60 years in South Africa, 63 in Uganda), and more were currently married, had no formal education, were not working, and were residing in a rural area. Adjusting for socio-demographic factors, older people in South Africa were significantly less likely to have good functional ability [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.72, 95% CI 0.53-0.98] than those in Uganda, but were more likely to be in good subjective wellbeing (aOR 2.15, 95% CI 1.6-02.90). South Africans were more likely to be obese (aOR 5.26, 95% CI 3.46-8.00) or to be diagnosed with hypertension (aOR 2.77, 95% CI 2.06-3.73). Discussion and conclusions: While older people’s health problems are similar in the two countries, marked socio-demographic differences influence the extent to which older people are affected by poorer health. It is therefore imperative when designing policies to improve the health and wellbeing of older people in sub-Saharan Africa that the region is not treated as a homogenous entity. Keywords: South Africa; Uganda; older people; health status; functional ability; subjective wellbeing (Published: 23 January 2013) Citation: Glob Health Action 2013, 6 : 19201 - http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/gha.v6i0.19201 This paper is part of the thematic cluster Improving health and living conditions for elderly populations - more papers from this cluster can be found here .

OBJECTIVES: To determine retention in HIV care for individuals not yet eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) and to explore factors associated with retention in a rural public health HIV program. METHODS: HIV-infected adults (≥16 years) not yet eligible for ART, with CD4 cell count >200 cells per microliter from January 2007 to December 2007 were included in the analysis. Retention was defined by repeat CD4 count within 13 months. Factors associated with retention were assessed using logistic regression with clustering at clinic level. RESULTS: Four thousand two hundred twenty-three were included in the analysis (83.9% female). Overall retention was 44.9% with median time to return 201 days [interquartile range (IQR): 127-274]. Retention by initial CD4 count 201-350, 351-500, and >500 cells per microliter was 51.6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 49.1 to 54.0], 43.2% (95% CI: 40.5 to 45.9), and 34.9% (95% CI: 32.4 to 37.4), respectively. Compared with CD4 201-350 cells per microliter, higher initial CD4 count was significantly associated with lower odds of retention [CD4: 351-500 cells/μL adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.72, 95% CI: 0.62 to 0.84; CD4 >500 cells/μL aOR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.60]. Male sex was independently associated with lower odds (aOR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.96), and older age with higher odds of retention (for each additional year of age aOR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.04). CONCLUSIONS: Retention in HIV care before eligibility for ART is poor, particularly for younger individuals and those at an earlier stage of infection. Further work to optimize and evaluate care and monitoring strategies is required to realize the full benefits of the rapid expansion of HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the scale-up of a decentralized HIV treatment programme delivered through the primary health care system in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and to assess trends in baseline characteristics and outcomes in the study population. METHODS: The programme started delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in October 2004. Information on all patients initiated on ART was captured in the programme database and follow-up status was updated monthly. All adult patients (> or = 16 years) who initiated ART between October 2004 and September 2008 were included and stratified into 6-month groups. Clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were compared between the groups. Retention in care, mortality, loss to follow-up and virological outcomes were assessed at 12 months post-ART initiation. FINDINGS: A total of 5719 adults initiated on ART were included (67.9% female). Median baseline CD4+ lymphocyte count was 116 cells/microl (interquartile range, IQR: 53-173). There was an increase in the proportion of women who initiated ART while pregnant but no change in other baseline characteristics over time. Overall retention in care at 12 months was 84.0% (95% confidence interval, CI: 82.6-85.3); 10.9% died (95% CI: 9.8-12.0); 3.7% were lost to follow-up (95% CI: 3.0-4.4). Mortality was highest in the first 3 months after ART initiation: 30.1 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 26.3-34.5). At 12 months 23.0% had a detectable viral load (> 25 copies/ml) (95% CI: 19.5-25.5). CONCLUSION: Outcomes were not affected by rapid expansion of this decentralized HIV treatment programme. The relatively high rates of detectable viral load highlight the need for further efforts to improve the quality of services.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

It is well known that the large-scale roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has reduced mortality and improved the health status of millions of people living with HIV (PLWH) in resource-limited settings (UNAIDS 2011). Although most common prevalence and epidemiological measures neglect measuring older people in these settings, estimates reveal that there are at least 3 million PLWH aged 50 years and above in sub-Saharan Africa (Hontelez et al. 2012; Negin and Cumming 2010). Though not specifically targeted by most treatment programs, increasing numbers of older adults in Africa have accessed ART services. There has been an ongoing debate in the literature about how the large scale roll-out of HIV services in Africa has affected wider health systems (Biesma et al. 2009; Brugha et al. 2010). Yet, to date, none of this literature examines the impact on older adults in particular. Studies from South Africa and Uganda reveal that the huge investments in strengthening HIV services and system responsiveness have led to older HIV-positive individuals having greater access to clinical care and support than if they were HIV-negative. These studies focused on the health of HIV-infected older adults aged 50 years and above and surveyed same-age HIV-negative counterparts as a comparator. What they found was surprising. In the South Africa study, HIV-infected older adult participants reported better functional ability (77.8 vs 69.4 on 100 point scales; p

The report by Morna Cornell and colleagues1 in The Lancet HIV on the effect of age on mortality in a large South African antiretroviral treatment (ART) programme emphasises three issues for health-care delivery: ageing of the population of people with HIV who are receiving therapy, possibly poor immunological response to ART in older people, and delayed HIV diagnosis and treatment initiation in older people

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text., Objective: To explore the impact of expanded eligibility criteria for antiretroviral therapy (ART) on median CD4+ cell count at ART initiation and early mortality on ART. Methods: Analyses included all adults (≥16 years) initiated on first-line ART between August 2004 and July 2012. CD4+ cell count threshold 350 cells per microliter for all adults was implemented in August 2011. Early mortality was defined as any death within 91 days of ART initiation. Trends in baseline CD4+ cell count and early mortality were examined by year (August to July) of ART initiation. Competing risks analysis was used to examine early mortality. Results: A total of 19,080 adults (67.6% female) initiated ART. Median CD4+ cell count at ART initiation was 110–120 cells per microliter over the first 6 years, increasing marginally to 145 cells per microliter in 2010–2011 and more significantly to 199 cells per microliter in 2011–2012. Overall, there were 875 deaths within 91 days of ART initiation; early mortality rate was 19.4 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.2 to 20.7]. After adjustment for sex, age, baseline CD4+ cell count, and concurrent tuberculosis (TB), there was a 46% decrease in early mortality for those who initiated ART in 2011–2012 compared with the reference period 2008–2009 (subhazard ratio, 0.54; 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.71). Conclusions: Since the expansion of eligibility criteria, there is evidence of earlier access to ART and a significant reduction in early mortality rate in this primary health care programme. These findings provide strong support for national ART policies and highlight the importance of earlier ART initiation for achieving reductions in HIV-related mortality.

Background: Little is known about depression in older people in sub-Saharan Africa, the associated impact of HIV, and the influence on health perceptions. Objectives: Examine the prevalence and correlates of depression; explore the relationship between depression and health perceptions in HIV-infected and -affected older people. Methods: In 2010, 422 HIV-infected and -affected participants aged 50+ were recruited into a crosssectional study. Nurse professionals interviewed participants and a diagnosis of depressive episode was derived from the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (Depression module) using the International Classification of Diseases diagnostic criteria and categorised as major (MDE) or brief (BDE). Results: Overall, 42.4% (n¼179) had a depressive episode (MDE: 22.7%, n¼96; BDE: 19.7%, n¼83). Prevalence of MDE was significantly higher in HIV-affected (30.1%, 95% CI 24.0–36.2%) than HIV-infected (14.8%, 95% CI 9.9–19.7%) participants; BDE was higher in HIV-infected (24.6%, 95% CI 18.7–30.6%) than in HIV-affected (15.1%, 95% CI 10.3–19.8%) participants. Being female (aOR 3.04, 95% CI 1.73–5.36), receiving a government grant (aOR 0.34, 95% CI 0.15–0.75), urban residency (aOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.16–2.96) and adult care-giving (aOR 2.37, 95% CI 1.37–4.12) were significantly associated with any depressive episode. Participants with a depressive episode were 2–3 times more likely to report poor health perceptions. Limitations: Study limitations include the cross-sectional design, limited sample size and possible selection biases. Conclusions: Prevalence of depressive episodes was high. Major depressive episodes were higher in HIVaffected than HIV-infected participants. Psycho-social support similar to that of HIV treatment programmes around HIV-affected older people may be useful in reducing their vulnerability to depression.

In many resource-limited settings monitoring of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is based on the current CD4 count, with limited access to HIV RNA tests or laboratory diagnostics. We examined whether the CD4 count slope over 6 months could provide additional prognostic information.We analyzed data from a large multicohort study in South Africa, where HIV RNA is routinely monitored. Adult HIV-positive patients initiating cART between 2003 and 2010 were included. Mortality was analyzed in Cox models; CD4 count slope by HIV RNA level was assessed using linear mixed models.About 44,829 patients (median age: 35 years, 58% female, median CD4 count at cART initiation: 116 cells/mm) were followed up for a median of 1.9 years, with 3706 deaths. Mean CD4 count slopes per week ranged from 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 1.6] cells per cubic millimeter when HIV RNA was400 copies per milliliter to -0.32 (95% CI: -0.47 to -0.18) cells per cubic millimeter with100,000 copies per milliliter. The association of CD4 slope with mortality depended on current CD4 count: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHRs) comparing a25% increase over 6 months with a25% decrease was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.79) at100 cells per cubic millimeter but 1.11 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.58) at 201-350 cells per cubic millimeter. In contrast, the aHR for current CD4 count, comparing350 with100 cells per cubic millimeter, was 0.10 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.20).Absolute CD4 count remains a strong risk for mortality with a stable effect size over the first 4 years of cART. However, CD4 count slope and HIV RNA provide independently added to the model.

BACKGROUND:The association of HIV with chronic morbidity and inflammatory markers (cytokines) in older adults (50+years) is potentially relevant for clinical care, but data from African populations is scarce. OBJECTIVE:To examine levels of chronic morbidity by HIV and ART status in older adults (50+years) and subsequent associations with selected pro-inflammatory cytokines and body mass index. METHODS:Ordinary, ordered and generalized ordered logistic regression techniques were employed to compare chronic morbidity (heart disease (angina), arthritis, stroke, hypertension, asthma and diabetes) and cytokines (Interleukins-1 and -6, C-Reactive Protein and Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha) by HIV and ART status on a cross-sectional random sample of 422 older adults nested within a defined rural South African population based demographic surveillance. RESULTS:Using a composite measure of all morbidities, controlling for age, gender, BMI, smoking and wealth quintile, HIV-infected individuals on ART had 51% decreased odds (95% CI:0.26-0.92) of current morbidity compared to HIV-uninfected. In adjusted regression, compared to HIV-uninfected, the proportional odds (aPOR) of having elevated inflammation markers of IL6 (>1.56 pg/mL) was nearly doubled in HIV-infected individuals on (aPOR 1.84; 95%CI: 1.05-3.21) and not on (aPOR 1.94; 95%CI: 1.11-3.41) ART. Compared to HIV-uninfected, HIV-infected individuals on ART had >twice partial proportional odds (apPOR=2.30;p=0.004) of having non-clinically significant raised hsCRP levels(>1 ug/mL); ART-naïve HIV-infected individuals had >double apPOR of having hsCRP levels indicative of increased heart disease risk(>3.9 ug/mL;p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS:Although HIV status was associated with increased inflammatory markers, our results highlight reduced morbidity in those receiving ART and underscore the need of pro-actively extending these services to HIV-uninfected older adults, beyond mere provision at fixed clinics. Providing health services through regular community chronic disease screening would ensure health care reaches all older adults in need.

Healthcare and social needs for mature adults aged 50 years or older differ from those of younger adults due to stigma concerning HIV in older people, beliefs that engagement in sexual activity no longer applies, age driven comorbidities and responses to antiretroviral treatment, which complicate HIV diagnosis and management. In the face of a growing HIV epidemic in mature adults, mostly due to infected people aging with HIV, but also due to new infections in this age group, HIV services, which mostly cater for HIV in young adults and children, and HIV education messages and interventions, which mainly target young adults, leave the mature adult exposed and vulnerable to HIV transmission and to a lack of care and treatment thereafter.

Objectives. To explore linkage to and retention in HIV care after an episode of cryptococcal meningitis (CM) in rural South Africa. Design. A retrospective case series of adult individuals (≥16 years old) with laboratory-confirmed CM from January - December 2007 at Hlabisa Hospital – a district hospital in northern KwaZulu- Natal. Outcome measures. Inpatient mortality and associated risk factors were analysed. The proportion alive and on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at 2 years was determined by linkage to the HIV treatment programme. Results. One hundred and four individuals were identified with laboratory diagnosis of CM; 74/104 (71.2%) with complete records were included in the analysis. Inpatient mortality was high (40.5%) and was significantly associated with reduced conscious level (aHR 3.09, 95% CI 1.30 - 7.33) and absence of headache (aHR 0.33 for headache, 95% CI 0.13 - 0.87). Only 8 individuals (10.8% of all study subjects) were alive and receiving ART 2 years after the CM episode. Conclusions. Long-term outcomes of CM are poor in routine practice. Interventions to strengthen linkage to HIV treatment and care and continuation of secondary fluconazole prophylaxis are critical.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether treatment outcomes vary with age for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a large rural HIV treatment cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis using data from a public HIV Treatment & Care Programme. METHODS: Adults initiating ART 1(st) August 2004-31(st) October 2009 were stratified by age at initiation: young adults (16-24 years) mid-age adults (25-49 years) and older (≥50 years) adults. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate mortality rates and age and person-time stratified Cox regression to determine factors associated with mortality. Changes in CD4 cell counts were quantified using a piecewise linear model based on follow-up CD4 cell counts measured at six-monthly time points. RESULTS: 8846 adults were included, 808 (9.1%) young adults; 7119 (80.5%) mid-age adults and 919 (10.4%) older adults, with 997 deaths over 14,778 person-years of follow-up. Adjusting for baseline characteristics, older adults had 32% excess mortality (p = 0.004) compared to those aged 25-49 years. Overall mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years were 6.18 (95% CI 4.90-7.78); 6.55 (95% CI 6.11-7.02) and 8.69 (95% CI 7.34-10.28) for young, mid-age and older adults respectively. In the first year on ART, for older compared to both young and mid-aged adults, MR per 100 person-years were significantly higher; 0-3 months (MR: 27.1 vs 17.17 and 21.36) and 3-12 months (MR: 9.5 vs 4.02 and 6.02) respectively. CD4 count reconstitution was lower, despite better virological response in the older adults. There were no significant differences in MR after 1 year of ART. Baseline markers of advanced disease were independently associated with very early mortality (0-3 months) whilst immunological and virological responses were associated with mortality after 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Early ART initiation and improving clinical care of older adults are required to reduce high early mortality and enhance immunologic recovery, particularly in the initial phases of ART.

This article evaluates the Hlabisa HIV treatment and Care Programme in South Africa. The goal of this program is to promote prevention practices as part of HIV services with the ultimate goal of curbing the HIV epidemic. A cohort study monitored the success of this integrated system and the impact on the communities. It includes a tracking system treatment checkpoints and children evaluations. The study concluded that this program is properly placed in a location where the population needs a variety of services and a complex approach to treatment. However more research is needed to determine whether maternal health ART treatment and TB are impacted by this program.

Background South Africa remains the country with the greatest burden of HIV-infected individuals and the second highest estimated TB incidence per capita worldwide. Within South Africa, KwaZulu-Natal has one of the highest rates of TB incidence and an emerging epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Methods Review of records of consecutive HIV-infected people initiated onto ART between 1st January 2005 and 31st March 2006. Patients were screened for TB at initiation and incident episodes recorded. CD4 counts, viral loads and follow-up status were recorded; data was censored on 5th August 2008. Geographic cluster analysis was performed using spatial scanning. Results 801 patients were initiated. TB prevalence was 25.3%, associated with lower CD4 (AHR 2.61 p = 0.01 for CD4 25 copies/ml (OR 1.75 p = 0.11). A low-risk cluster for incident TB was identified for patients living near the local hospital in the geospatial analysis. Conclusion There is a large burden of TB in this population. Rate of incident TB stabilises at a rate higher than that of the overall population. These data highlight the need for greater research on strategies for active case finding in rural settings and the need to focus on strengthening primary health care.

Background Despite the severe impact of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, the health of older people aged 50+ is often overlooked owing to the dearth of data on the direct and indirect effects of HIV on older people’s health status and well-being. The aim of this study was to examine correlates of health and well-being of HIV-infected older people relative to HIV-affected people in rural South Africa, defined as participants with an HIV-infected or death of an adult child due to HIV-related cause. Methods Data were collected within the Africa Centre surveillance area using instruments adapted from the World Health Organization (WHO) Study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE). A stratified random sample of 422 people aged 50+ participated. We compared the health correlates of HIV-infected to HIV-affected participants using ordered logistic regressions. Health status was measured using three instruments: disability index, quality of life and composite health score. Results Median age of the sample was 60 years (range 50–94). Women HIV-infected (aOR 0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08–0.29) and HIV-affected (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.08–0.50), were significantly less likely than men to be in good functional ability. Women’s adjusted odds of being in good overall health state were similarly lower than men’s; while income and household wealth status were stronger correlates of quality of life. HIV-infected participants reported better functional ability, quality of life and overall health state than HIV-affected participants. Discussion and conclusions The enhanced healthcare received as part of anti-retroviral treatment as well as the considerable resources devoted to HIV care appear to benefit the overall well-being of HIV-infected older people; whereas similar resources have not been devoted to the general health needs of HIV uninfected older people. Given increasing numbers of older people, policy and programme interventions are urgently needed to holistically meet the health and well-being needs of older people beyond the HIV-related care system.