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Der Beitrag liefert eine kurze Beschreibung der demographischen Lage in Russland und berücksichtigt dabei auch die Folgen der Corona-Krise, des aktuellen Krieges und der Sanktionen. Auch durch die Altersstruktur der russischen Bevölkerung entstehende Schwierigkeiten werden angesprochen, die in erheblichem Maße den Bevölkerungsschwund und Alterungsprozesse beeinflusst. Darüber hinaus werden dadurch wirtschaftliche Planungsprozesse erschwert. Insgesamt steht Russland als ein im Grunde entwickeltes Land da und weist für derlei Länder durchschnittliche Niveaus der Alterung und der Geburtenraten auf. Allerdings ist die Sterblichkeit höher. Russland ist relativ attraktiv für Migrant:innen, doch sind die Folgen für Geburtenraten und Migrationsbewegungen nach dem Februar 2022 nur schwer abzuschätzen.

Die Demographie Russlands zeigt bezüglich verschiedener Faktoren eine Annäherung an internationale Trends. Dazu gehören z.B. die Alterung der Bevölkerung, vor allem auf Grund gesunkener Geburtenraten, und die Erhöhnug des Alters der Mütter bei der ersten Geburt. Die deutliche Erhöhung der Zahl russischer Bürger, die sich im Ausland aufhalten, sowie der Arbeitswanderer in Russland zeigt die wachsende Integration des Landes in die internationale Wirtschaft und ihre (Arbeits-)Migrationssysteme.

In this paper, we extend the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) methodology to obtain the age profiles simultaneously disaggregated by gender, education level and family structure. We present the results for four countries (Austria, Spain, Finland and the UK), analysing the roles of these three dimensions in the both inter and intragenerational distribution of resources. We find interesting differences across countries, some of them related to the degree and age direction of the familiarization of different welfare state regimes. Finland excels as the country with the highest level of public transfers, and in particular for the elderly and for parents of working ages. In Austria, public transfers are also generous for children and the elderly, and there are substantial family benefits. In the UK and Spain, public transfers are much lower and family-related allowances are almost insignificant. Consequently, in Spain, private transfers from parents to children are the highest, while in the UK asset reallocations play a significant role in financing elderly consumption. Overall, our analysis provides interesting insights on how gender, redistribution policies and family structure interact with the welfare organization.

Population ageing exerts considerable pressure on the funding of public transfers. It is of utmost importance to understand how the transfer system can adapt to population ageing. Using National Transfer Accounts, we illustrate the different organisation of transfer systems across Europe. Countries like Greece and Romania, where labour income already falls short of consumption at age 54, would greatly improve their public system sustainability by following the Swedish example where this happens ten years later. High consumption at older ages is less problematic when financed substantially through savings (the UK) rather than almost exclusively through transfers (Austria).

Die stark besetzten "Babyboomer"-Jahrgänge, die in den 1950er und 1960er Jahren geboren wurden, verlassen in den nächsten 20 Jahren den Arbeitsmarkt. Hierdurch ist ein Rückgang der Bevölkerung im Erwerbsalter zu erwarten, der in der öffentlichen Diskussion häufig als eine Gefahr für den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland angesehen wird. Für die Wirtschaftsleistung ist aber weniger die Gesamtzahl der Erwerbstätigen wesentlich, sondern vielmehr deren Ausbildungsstand und der geleistete Arbeitseinsatz in Stunden. Im Fokus steht das Arbeitsangebot. Präsentiert werden Projektionen zur Entwicklung der geleisteten Arbeitsstunden pro Woche nach Bildungsstand bis 2030. Diese werden für verschiedene Entwicklungsszenarien berechnet. Je nach Szenario wird die Gesamtzahl der gearbeiteten Stunden pro Woche bis 2030 stagnieren oder leicht sinken. Eine Steigerung der Frauenerwerbstätigkeit und ein weiterer Anstieg der Erwerbstätigkeit bei Personen über 55 Jahre bieten Potenziale, die durch die Verrentung der Babyboomer entstehenden Lücken weitgehend zu schließen. Auch die Bildungsexpansion der letzten Jahrzehnte wird negativen Folgen der Alterung entgegenwirken, da sie die Anzahl der geleisteten Stunden positiv beeinflusst und Potenzial für weitere Erhöhungen der Pro-Kopf-Produktivität birgt. Beim Alterungsprozess im Arbeitsmarkt ist mit Stagnation oder nur mit geringen Anstiegen zu rechnen.

Im vergangenen Jahrzehnt sind über 1,8 Millionen Deutsche ins Ausland fortgezogen. Internationale Mobilität gewinnt für die Lebensläufe der jüngeren Generation zunehmend an Bedeutung. Für zwei Drittel der umgezogenen Personen ist der Auslandsaufenthalt nur zeitlich befristet und für einige Jahre geplant. Ebenfalls zwei Drittel dieser Personen lebten bereits früher einmal im Ausland. Umzüge ins Ausland erfolgen meist aus ökonomischen Motiven sowie aus Gründen des Lebensstils. Die ins Ausland umgezogenen Personen sind überdurchschnittlich qualifiziert. Drei Viertel der Befragten besitzen einen Hochschulabschluss. Die ins Ausland umgezogenen Personen profitieren beruflich in den meisten Fällen von ihrem Auslandsaufenthalt. Selbst unter Berücksichtigung von Kaufkraftunterschieden zwischen Deutschland und den verschiedenen Zielländern erhöhen sich mit dem Umzug ins Ausland die monatlichen Nettoverdienste von Vollzeitbeschäftigten durchschnittlich um knapp 1.200 Euro. Öffentlich finanzierte internationale Mobilitätsprogramme sollten weitere Bevölkerungsgruppen ansprechen. Vereinfachung und bessere Sichtbarkeit der Programme könnten ihre Attraktivität auch für Bevölkerungs- und Berufsgruppen mit bisher geringerer internationaler Mobilität erhöhen.

Die Nutzung der Reproduktionsmedizin nimmt stetig zu. Der Bedarf steigt, da Geburten immer häufiger bis in das vierte Lebensjahrzent aufgeschoben werden - ein Alter, in dem verstärkt Fertilitätsprobleme auftreten. Die Erfolgsaussichten reproduktionsmedizinischer Behandlungen werden oft überschätzt. Späte Elternschaft mittels Reproduktionsmedizin lässt sich bislang nicht zuverlässig planen. Das Risiko, ungewollt kinderlos zu bleiben, ist hoch. Die Kinderwunschbehandlung wird von vielen Patientinnen und Patienten als emotional anstrengend und belastend empfunden. Es besteht ein Bedarf an psychosozialer Beratung und Begleitung. Die rechtlichen Regelungen zu den erlaubten Verfahren sowie zum Zugang zur Reproduktionsmedizin sind teilweise veraltet und widersprüchlich. Eine Aktualisierung dieser Regelungen würde die Rechtssicherheit für Patientinnen und Patienten sowie für Ärztinnen und Ärzte erhöhen. Der Beitrag der Reproduktionsmedizin zur Gesamtgeburtenrate ist mit 2,8 Prozent aller Geburten relativ gering.

In den kommenden 20 Jahren wird sich die demografische Alterung stark beschleunigen, denn die zwischen 1955 und 1969 geborenen Babyboomer erreichen bis 2035 das Rentenalter. Migration kann die demografische Alterung langfristig nicht aufhalten, aber die durch die Pensionierungswelle der Babyboomer bedingte temporäre Beschleunigung der Alterung vermindern. Legt man die historischen Trends der letzten 50 Jahre zugrunde, verlangsamt Migration den Alterungsprozess in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2035 in geringerem Maße als in anderen OECD-Staaten. Zur weiteren Erschließung der Potenziale der Zuwanderung zur Abmilderung der demografischen Alterung in Deutschland bedarf es neben einem Fachkräfteeinwanderungsgesetz mit klaren und transparenten Regeln, das auch die schnelle und dauerhafte Integration in Gesellschaft und Arbeitsmarkt weiter fördert, Verbesserungen der Rahmenbedingungen sowie verstärkte Werbekampagnen und eine Förderung des Spracherwerbs im Ausland.

Das späte Erwachsenenalter ist durch eine Vielfalt an Übergängen und (Un-)Ruheständen gekennzeichnet. Dies bedeutet, dass der Ruhestandseintritt nicht mit einem Rückzug aus sozialen, familialen und wirtschaftlichen Lebensbereichen gleichzusetzen ist. Potenziale älterer Menschen sind Ergebnis einer Förderung über den gesamten Lebenslauf hinweg und müssen somit als politische Querschnittsaufgabe verstanden werden. Geschlechtergerechtigkeit am Arbeitsmarkt und eine verbesserte Vereinbarkeit zwischen beruflichen und familialen Tätigkeiten begünstigen die Potenziale des späten Erwachsenenalters. Die Beseitigung von Barrieren, die einer gesellschaftlichen Teilhabe entgegenstehen, ermöglicht ein selbst bestimmtes Altern. Dies gilt besonders für ältere Erwachsene mit niedriger Bildung, geringem Einkommen oder gesundheitlichen Nachteilen.

We analyze data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, including a pre-pandemic baseline and seven survey waves between May 2020 and September 2021. Fixed effects panel regression models are run over more than 11,000 individuals, distinguishing among women and men with young children (< 5 years), older children (5-15 years), or no children in the household. We hypothesize that declines in life satisfaction during the first lockdown are sharper among parents, whose domestic demands increase, than among the childless. We develop competing hypotheses that parents might be resilient and have higher life satisfaction during the later phases (Adaptation Hypothesis) or that the pandemic stressors accumulate, leading to even lower satisfaction during (Accumulation Hypothesis). The results only support the Accumulation Hypothesis among mothers. Whereas mothers fared comparatively well during the first lockdown, further pandemic stressors have seemingly exhausted their resilience, leading to stronger declines during the winter 2020/2021 lockdown. Among men with older children and without children, life satisfaction decreased during the first and subsequent lockdowns. Men with young children were the only group with almost unchanged life satisfaction throughout the pandemic.

Der Anteil an Paaren jenseits der 50, bei denen beide Partner erwerbstätig sind, ist in der Vergangenheit stark gestiegen und wird voraussichtlich auch zukünftig weiter steigen. Derzeit sind bei mehr als der Hälfte aller Paare zwischen 50 und 69 Jahren beide Partner erwerbstätig (1996 waren es nur 25 Prozent) und bei jedem vierten Paar in diesem Alter sind beide voll erwerbstätig. In Ostdeutschland liegt dieser Anteil sogar bei knapp 40 Prozent. Der gemeinsame Übergang vom Beruf in den Ruhestand wird daher für immer mehr Menschen zu einem Lebensprojekt. Dies gilt insbesondere für Paare mit einem großen Altersabstand. Die Synchronisierung des Renteneintritts zwischen Partnern kann zu Abweichungen vom Regelalter des Renteneintritts führen und ist daher auch sozialpolitisch relevant.

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020 and 2021, a development which did not materialize in Scandinavian and German-speaking countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in the aftermath of the pandemic in 2022. We aim to provide data on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden and relate these data to pandemic-related contextual developments which could have influenced the post-pandemic fertility development. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden. We relate the nine-months lagged fertility rates to contextual developments regarding COVID-19 mortality and morbidity, unemployment rates, and COVID-19 vaccinations. The seasonally adjusted monthly TFR of Germany dropped from 1.5-1.6 in 2021 to 1.3-1.4 in 2022, a decline of about 14%. In Sweden, the corresponding TFR dropped from about 1.7 in 2021 to 1.5-1.6 in 2022, a decline of almost 10%. There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment, infection rates, or COVID-19 deaths. However, there is a strong association between the onset of vaccination programmes and the fertility decline nine months after of this onset. The fertility decline in the first months of 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable. Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply in its aftermath. The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that people adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant, as societies were opening up with post-pandemic life conditions. Our study provides novel information on fertility declines in countries previously not affected by any COVID-19 baby bust. We provide a first appraisal of the COVID-19-fertility nexus in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

The Kaliningrad region’s attractiveness to migrants results in increasing external (interna­tional) and interregional migration. The interregional flow is a major contributor, accounting for approximately 60 per cent of the net migration gain. However, the age composition and pro­fessional qualification of migrants from other regions of Russia do not fully agree with the specifics of the region’s labour market and its strategic socio-­economic development priori­ties. This lends urgency to a selective regional migration policy aimed at prospective internal migrants. Yet, the picture of pull, push and hindering factors remains incomplete, being limit­ed to generally accepted drivers such as coastal location and proximity to EU countries. This article aims at a detailed analysis of reasons to migrate to the region, an assessment of the re­strictions and difficulties faced by relocatees and migrants' satisfaction with the new place of residence. Method­ologically, the study uses a mixed strategy: formal data collection methods are combined with respondent selection techniques peculiar to qualitative or expert methods. The authors draw on the results of an exploratory survey conducted in December 2021 with a view to analyse migrants' perception of the Kaliningrad region before and after their arrival and assess how their ideas change. The survey applied mixed research methods: respondents were recruited via social media and relocatee groups. The data analysis reveals a gap between migrant expectations and reality, identifying the causes of inconsistency between the incoming migration flow and the region's development objectives and labour market needs. Based on the findings, the authors provide recommendations for a migration policy based on an accurate picture of the region and aimed at attracting the required workforce, as well as at migrants' adaptation and support at the new place of residence.

Die Studie gibt einen Überblick über die Größenordnungen der von der Schließung von Kindertagesstätten (Kitas) und Schulen betroffenen Elterngruppen sowie der Veränderungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt in den Monaten des Lockdowns. Im Anschluss werden vier Themenbereiche, die während der Krise an Relevanz gewannen, näher betrachtet: Eltern in systemrelevanten Berufen, Homeoffice als Lösung, Arbeitsteilung zwischen Frau und Mann sowie psychologische Folgen der Krise für Eltern.

This article aims to identify the main demographic development trends and features observed in the Kaliningrad region from a historical perspective and assess the extent to which the region’s demographic development corresponds to the national model accepted in contemporary historiography. The empirical sources used in this study include demographic statistics from published and archival materials; theoretically, it draws on the concepts of demographic and epidemiological transitions. Analysis of statistics and historiography is employed along with the comparative historical method. The migration factor had the leading role in the emergence of the regional specifics of demographic development. Migrants from the regions of the USSR that were deeply involved in demographic modernisation before the war formed the resident population of the Kaliningrad region. The gender and age profile of the migrants ensured the prolonged post-war demographic compensation and secured fertility and marriage rates above the RSFSR average. The regional fertility rates converged towards the national average in the second half of the 1950s; from the late 1970s, the region had a fertility rate below the national average. Overall mortality rates remained significantly lower than the RSFSR average until the mid-1990s. The changes in the regional population replacement model that took place in the region during the Soviet period and at the turn of the 21st century generally corresponded to national trends. Therefore, the concept of Russian demographic development proposed by Russian researchers is directly applicable to the exclave of Kaliningrad.

Erwerbstätigkeit im Ruhestandsalter hat im öffentlichen, politischen und akademischen Diskurs in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Die Beschreibung des Entscheidungsprozesses für oder gegen eine fortgeführte Erwerbstätigkeit über die Grenzen des Ruhestandsalters hinaus ist für Deutschland bisher nur lückenhaft vorgenommen worden. Als Grundlage für die Analyse dieses Entscheidungsprozesses verwendet dieses Buch eine Heuristik, die auf dem Rubikon-Modell der Handlungsphasen beruht. Neben der Beschreibung spezifischer Konstellationen formeller und informeller Tätigkeiten in einzelnen Phasen werden auch die sozialen, ökonomischen und gesundheitlichen Bedingungen in den Blick genommen, die das gewünschte oder notwendige Arbeiten von Menschen im Ruhestand fördern oder einschränken. Dies ermöglicht eine differenzierte Sichtweise auf den Prozess der Grenzgänge zwischen Erwerbsarbeit und Ruhestand und kann dadurch eine Orientierung für die politische, gesellschaftliche und insbesondere für die individuelle Gestaltung des jungen Alters bieten. Tabellenanhang: s. https://shop.budrich.de/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Anhangtabellen.pdf

Während die Weltbevölkerung insgesamt betrachtet noch stets zunimmt weisen einzelne Weltregionen und Länder regional unterschiedliche Trends auf. Geburten, Sterbefälle und Wanderungen sind zudem einem kontinuierlichen Wandel unterworfen. Diese Bevölkerungsprozesse stehen heute im Mittelpunkt einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung, wie sie von den Vereinten Nationen mit der Agenda 2030 und den nachhaltigen Entwicklungszielen (Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs) verfolgt wird. Zur nachhaltigen Gestaltung menschlicher Entwicklung ist es erforderlich, die Ursachen und Herausforderungen des demografischen Wandels zu verstehen, um die künftige Bevölkerungsentwicklung besser einschätzen und ihren Einfluss auf Gesellschaft, Wirtschaft und Umwelt berücksichtigen zu können. Die Broschüre bietet in 12 knappen Kapiteln mit Abbildungen und Karten einen aktuellen Überblick zur globalen Bevölkerungsdynamik im Kontext nachhaltiger Entwicklung.

Durch die Deutsche Einheit konnten in Ostdeutschland alle Generationen Zugewinne an politischer und wirtschaftlicher Freiheit erlangen. Die Auswirkungen des Einheitsprozesses auf die Lebensläufe und Lebenssituationen sind dagegen sehr unterschiedlich auf die Generationen verteilt. Einige haben in erheblichem Maße profitiert, während in anderen Generationen viele Personen mit Herausforderungen und Verlusterfahrungen konfrontiert waren. Von den wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen des Einheitsprozesses waren besonders die zwischen 1960 und 1985 geborenen Personen betroffen. Diese "Wendegeneration" befand sich in den Zeiten des Umbruchs in einer Lebensphase, in der die Weichen für das Erwerbsleben und die Familiengründung gestellt werden. Viele Personen der Wendegeneration konnten ihr Leben dennoch erfolgreich gestalten, wobei ein nicht unerheblicher Teil dabei die Heimatregion verlassen hat. Daneben findet sich in dieser Generation aber auch ein höherer Anteil von Personen, bei denen der Umbruch deutliche Spuren in den Lebensläufen hinterlassen hat. Die besonderen Herausforderungen, mit welchen diese Wendegeneration konfrontiert war, stehen kaum im öffentlichen Fokus.

Numerous studies have demonstrated that men’s educational profiles dominate couple migration decisions. However, most of these investigated the US context or were conducted in the previous century. This study examines the role of both partners' educational attainments in couple migration in recent years in a new context: the Netherlands. The Netherlands is one of the countries in which women surpass men in educational attainment. We take a geographical perspective and test Costa and Kahn's (2000) hypothesis that power couples - two partners with university degrees - are more likely than other couples to migrate to metropolitan areas with dense labour markets in order to solve their "colocation problem." Data are derived from the Dutch Labour Force Survey between 2006 and 2015. The research population consists of all opposite-sex married and unmarried couples aged 18-45 (N = 90,314 couples). By linking the respondents to integral register data, we tracked all couples until three years after the interview date. The results show that both men’s and women’s human capital increases migration propensities, although effect sizes are relatively small. Social factors such as the geographical distance to birthplace and parents appear to play a significant role in couple migration. We found only partial support for Costa and Kahn’s (2000) colocation hypothesis. Power couples who live in the core region are less likely than other couples to migrate to more peripherally located regions. However, periphery-to-core migration is only affected by the male partner’s human capital, not by hers. Hence, the concentration of power couples in Dutch metropolitan areas probably stems from highly educated, single, young, urban adults who migrated there individually and who tend to stay there after union formation.

Franziska Schutzbach: Politiken der Generativität - Reproduktive Gesundheit, Bevölkerung und Geschlecht: Das Beispiel der Weltgesundheitsorganisation. Gender Studies. Bielefeld: transcript Verlag 2020. 978-3-8394-5022-2. https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839450222

This study uses a gender and class perspective to study rates of progression to the second birth in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for the period 1990- 2020, we distinguish individuals by whether they are in (a) higher managerial/professional, (b) lower managerial/ professional, (c) skilled manual/higher routine nonmanual, or (d) the nonskilled manual/lower routine nonmanual classes. Our analysis reveals strongly elevated second birth rates among men and women in the managerial classes. We also show that upward mobility after the first birth is associated with higher second birth rates, particularly among men., In dieser Studie wird das Zweitgeburtenverhalten in Deutschland aus einer geschlechts- und klassenspezifischen Perspektive untersucht. Unter Verwendung von Daten des Sozio-ökonomischen Panels für den Zeitraum 1990-2020 unterscheiden wir Personen danach, ob sie zu (a) der oberen Dienstklasse, (b) der unteren Dienstklasse, (c) den qualifizierten Angestellten/Facharbeitern oder (d) den einfachen beziehungsweise un- und angelernten Angestellten/Arbeitern gehören. Unsere Analyse zeigt stark erhöhte Zweitgeburtenraten bei Männern und Frauen in den höheren Berufsklassen. Wir zeigen auch, dass insbesondere bei Männern Aufwärtsmobilität nach der Geburt des ersten Kindes mit höheren Zweitgeburtenraten verbunden ist.

Emanuel Richter: Seniorendemokratie - Die Überalterung der Gesellschaft und ihre Folgen für die Politik. Berlin: Suhrkamp 2020. 978-3-518-29901-2

Zu viel Bevölkerung oder zu wenig? Wer soll Kinder bekommen und wer vom Gebären abgehalten werden? Kinderkriegen ist eingebunden in mächtige Regierungsstrategien, die auf Körper und Bevölkerungen abzielen. Das malthusianische Denken geht noch weiter, indem es fast alle Krisen unserer Zeit zu Bevölkerungsproblemen umdeutet. Der Status quo von sozialer Ungleichheit, Rassismus und globaler Zerstörung bleibt dabei allerdings unberührt. Die Autorin seziert das demografische Denken und versammelt Analysen deutscher Kinderwunsch-, Familien- und Migrationspolitik. Dabei hinterfragt sie auch eine "demografisierte" Klimadebatte und kritisiert repressive globale Verhütungsprogramme.

Educational expansion and the closing of gender gaps in education are key objectives in national and international policy agendas. Monitoring progress towards these goals requires comparable data across countries and over time. The availability of international census and survey microdata allows for cross-national comparisons of education participation and completion. However, we lack systematic analyses of how trends vary across data sources and of the extent to which these data sources offer a consistent account of progress in education. In this paper, we examine coherence in estimates of educational attainment among women aged 25 to 29 in 75 countries across the three main repositories of international population microdata: IPUMS International, the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). Coherence analysis of 535 census and survey observations from 1960 to 2017 shows high levels of consistency overall but also identifies observations misaligned with trends. Results provide practical information to the research community about the validity of comparative investigations using three important data sources for demographic studies. The data also serve as benchmarks for assessing the quality of education information obtained in data sources not included in our analysis and the trend alignment of future estimates.

Wir verbinden drei thematische Felder miteinander. Zuerst (1) diskutieren wir wesentliche Aspekte der Multilokalität des sozialen Lebens, danach stellen wir als die geeignete Untersuchungseinheit den Haushalt von mobilen und immobilen Partner_innen dar, die eine Lebens- und Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft bilden, um (3) die vorläufig ermittelte Typologie zu diskutieren. Schließlich diskutieren wir die offenen Fragen und den daraus folgernden Forschungsbedarf.

Adaptation to host country behaviours encompasses both individual and social change, bringing about rising diversity issues in the host society and societal shifts in the country of origin. This study aims to detect whether Turkish immigrants and their descendants converge towards or diverge from the partnership practices of the native-born population in Western Germany. Specifically, transitions from (1) singlehood to the first partnership, (2) singlehood to the first marriage, (3) singlehood to the first cohabitation, (4) cohabitation to marriage and (5) marriage to divorce are investigated. Data from the Panel Analysis of Intimate Relationships and Family Dynamics (pairfam) survey for the period of 2008-2018 are used, applying Kaplan-Meier survival estimations and Cox proportional hazard models. This is the first study that includes natives, immigrants and their descendants simultaneously in an analysis of extensive partnership transitions covering practices of cohabitation, marriage and divorce and to investigate the proportionality assumption in Cox models. We formulate four research hypotheses based on the hypotheses of socialisation, adaptation and the cultural maintenance and segmented assimilation theory. Supporting our first hypothesis, our findings indicate a difference in partnership patterns between both first- and second-generation immigrants and natives, except for the finding that second-generation immigrants resemble the native pattern in their transition to the first union (including both cohabitation and marriage). Immigrants and their descendants tend to marry directly and have lower divorce hazard ratios than their native counterparts, while consensual unions are uncommon among Turkish immigrants. As suggested by our second hypothesis, the extent of the divergence varies across partnership transitions. Finally, our results provide support for our third hypothesis rather than the fourth in that partnership transition of Turkish immigrants' descen

In Global South countries, ageing is an incoming phenomenon with socio-spatial implications that are not much explored yet. Global North countries are already facing ageing trends with significant territorial consequences, such as declining populations that contribute to making certain areas marginal. However, different factors may determine the marginality of a municipality or a region in other settings. Drawing on these premises, the paper discusses whether ageing demographic trends contribute to territorial marginality also in a Global South setting. The paper focuses on the case of Chile, a country characterised by significant territorial inequalities and a population that is becoming older. In doing so, it has a twofold purpose: first, examine census data to define what areas are currently experiencing a demographic decline and if these correspond to the areas that national policies define as marginal; second, examine official documents to consider to what extent both national policies and local development plans define ageing as an element of marginality. The decline of population in Chile defines a geography of marginality that complements and expands the one defined in policy strategies, including more areas. In contrast, institutions at different levels are only partially prepared for dealing with the socio-spatial implications of an increasingly older population.

Industrialised economies are experiencing a decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. Population ageing is associated not only with longer periods of pension claims but also smaller cohorts eventually entering the labour market. This threatens the sustainability of pay-as-you-go social security systems for implementing or further improving appropriate reform measures; adequate forecasts of the future population structure are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the number of pensions in Germany up to 2040. Our model considers trends in population development, labour force participation, and early retirement, as well as the effects of pension reforms. Principal component analysis is used to manage the high degree of complexity involved in forecasting trends in old-age and disability pension claims, which arises because of cross-correlations between old-age and disability pension rates, different age groups, and gender. Time series methods enable the inclusion of autocorrelations of the pension rate time series in the model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to quantify future risk. The latter is an important feature of our model, as the future development of the population and, eventually, the pension claims and the financial burden resulting from those claims, are highly stochastic. The model predicts that, in the median trajectory, the number of old-age pensions will increase by almost 5 million between 2017 and 2036, alongside increases in the number of disability pensions by 2036. These numbers take account of the increase in legal retirement ages as part of the 2007 pension reform. After the mid-2030s, however, a moderate decrease can be expected. The results show a clear need for further reforms, especially in the medium term.

Socioeconomic inequalities in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) exist across all European countries, yet the driving determinants of these differences are not completely known. We calculated the impact on educational inequalities in DFLE of equalizing the distribution of eight risk factors for mortality and disability using register-based mortality data and survey data from 15 European countries for individuals between 35 and 80 years old. From the selected risk factors, the ones that contribute the most to the educational inequalities in DFLE are low income, high body-weight, smoking (for men), and manual occupation of the father. Potentially large reductions in inequalities can be achieved in Eastern European countries, where educational inequalities in DFLE are also the largest.

Background: Migration has become one of the most salient policy areas in the European Union. In response, the European Commission established a research team with the task of investigating a range of possible demographic futures. Objective: This paper explores the demographic effects of migration on eastern, southern, and western EU regions, using different scenarios to see the extent population size, working-age population, education composition, and total age dependency can be influenced. Methods: We use a deterministic cohort-component projection model that (a) incorporates improving levels of educational attainment in the population and (b) explicit consideration of migration between EU member states (MS) and migration between EU MS and the rest of the world. Eight stylised what-if scenarios are developed around a medium assumption projection. Results: Although migration can have a large effect on total and working-age population size, the EU population will continue to age and see a rise in age dependency regardless. Despite depopulation occurring in many eastern MS, the region is and should remain in a better position than the south and on par with the west in terms of age dependency. Conclusions: While both the south and east provide large demographic subsidies of working-age people to the EU’s west, the south is less prepared to cope with the losses due to an already older population, lower labour force participation, and lower education levels. Contribution: We report demographic consequences of contrasting migration scenarios for the EU-28 (now EU+UK) based on multidimensional projections by age, sex, and educational attainment.

The EU has faced substantial demographic challenges in recent times and will continue to do so in the coming decades. This e-paper analyses why and how demographic discourses were hijacked by illiberal, right-wing and conservative forces. It explores who are the main actors in the field of demography in the EU institutions by looking at Twitter posts and documents produced by European commissioners, members and political groups of the European Parliament from 2015 to summer 2021. This e-paper adds to current understandings of Twitter engagement of actors of the European Union by presenting the first quantitative analysis of historical Twitter data in the field of demographic discourses. What issues they discuss, and which explanatory frameworks are used, is analysed with the method of critical discourse analysis. The key findings of the Twitter analysis how that EU institutions are aware that demographic change is primarily driven by ageing population, migration and decreasing birth-rates. While there is consensus across EU actors that the ageing population is a major demographic challenge, other factors remain insufficiently targeted. This e-paper finds that the decline of birth rates has been addressed by the European Commission in a way that leaves it as an open frame, which is filled by the right-wing groups. With respect to demographic discourses on migration, the EU Commission seems to have promoted an interpretative template that also allows for arguments on anti-migration discourses.

This article analyses the citizenship regime of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Current literature on ASEAN regionalism has refrained from examining the link between community-building and citizenship building, and the prevailing assumption remains that ASEAN lacks a citizenship regime. This assumption derives from the premises that a regional citizenship regime is the result of the reconfiguration of national citizenship rights and that it is a legally defined status. By deploying the concept of citizenship regime based on the dimensions of rights, access, belonging, and responsibility mix, the article argues that there is an emerging citizenship regime in ASEAN built on citizenship-related policies. This citizenship regime is informal, developing, and atypical - and the unintentional outcome of ASEAN trying to fulfil its agenda on community-building. The analysis contributes to citizenship studies and ASEAN regionalism by offering a nuanced understanding of how citizenship regimes are built through citizenship-related policies and practices.

In the course of state-led rural urbanisation over the past few decades, millions of Chinese peasants have been expropriated and relocated. After establishing a definition of these "landless peasants" as a heterogeneous social group connected mainly by the fact that its members had to give up their land-use rights, this article sets out to examine subsequent processes of identity formation - a topic that has been largely neglected in existing research. Drawing on Beck's individualisation thesis, I suggest that structural and institutional changes in the process of rural modernisation have initiated a further thrust of individualisation in people's lives which manifests not only in the objective domain of life situations but also in the subjective domain of identity. This hypothesis is substantiated through an ethnographic case study based on seven months of fieldwork (2016–2018) in Huaming Model Town in the Dongli District of Tianjin. As a first step towards conceptualising what landless peasants are becoming, I will propose to start focusing on recombinant identities and class differentiations evolving among the people.

The extension of late working life has been proposed as a potential remedy for the challenges of aging societies. For Germany, surprisingly little is known about trends and social inequalities in the length of late working life. Here, we use data from the German Microcensus to estimate working life expectancy from age 55 onwards for the 1941-1955 birth cohorts. We adjust our calculations of working life expectancy for working hours, and present results for western and eastern Germany by gender, education, and occupation. While working life expectancy has increased across cohorts, we find strong regional and socioeconomic disparities. Decomposition analyses show that among males, socioeconomic differences are predominantly driven by variation in employment rates; whereas among women, variation in working hours is also highly relevant. Older eastern German women have longer working lives than older western German women, which is likely attributable to the GDR legacy of high female employment.

Although extensive research investigates the consequences of teenage motherhood, there is still very limited research exploring young mothers' experiences in their own voices. This gap is particularly evident for those non-Western developing countries in which women's voices are largely muted. This paper explores women's perceptions and evaluations of their early motherhood, drawing on their lived experiences and retrospective accounts. This study also investigates how early first birth influences these mother's subsequent fertility. The study adopts a qualitative method based on interviews with a total of 17 women in several cities in Turkey who had their first birth at a young age (ages 17-22). A qualitative approach is most suitable for this research area, which aims to explore young mothers' interpretations of their fertility timing and the consequences of this event for their lives in general, including subjective evaluations and subtle meanings. A key finding of this study is that the interviewees describe early childbearing as a negative event in their life course, convey regret for having had an early first birth, and report a feeling of dissatisfaction with being a young mother. A second finding concerns the influence of early first birth on subsequent childbearing. The women's accounts indicate that subsequent fertility operated as a compensation for the missed feelings of motherhood and served as an opportunity to heal from hurtful experiences. This study points to the importance of social context in determining the consequences of early fertility.

Easterlin's relative income hypothesis refers to the current income of young adults compared to the level of material aspirations acquired during childhood. The hypothesis implies that young individuals are expected to reduce fertility if their material aspirations grow at a higher rate than their incomes. This paper examines whether the same hypothesis holds true for marriage. A higher (lower) level of income combined with a lower (higher) level of material aspirations would increase (decrease) relative income and consequently could affect marriage rates. Thus, relative income might be one explanation for the "marriage paradox" which indicates that young adults in the United States retreat from marriage despite perceiving it as a milestone of their lives. One might also expect relative income to be a better predictor of marriage than absolute income. This is because, according to the Easterlin hypothesis, the behaviour of young adults reflects not only their response to changes in external conditions (e.g. absolute income), but also to past events they have experienced. We employ panel dynamic methods and causality tests for the United States that span the period from 1981 to 2016. Empirical analysis supports the relative income hypothesis. Causality tests indicate that the relationship runs mostly from relative income to marriage rather than the other way round. Relative income emerges as a stronger predictor than absolute income in all of the methods employed.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an increase in mortality in 2020 with a resultant decrease in life expectancy in most countries around the world. In Germany, the reduction in life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2020 was comparatively small, at -0.20 years. The decrease was stronger among men than among women (-0.24 vs. -0.13 years) and in eastern rather than in Western Germany (-0.36 vs. -0.16 years). Men in Eastern Germany experienced the biggest decline in life expectancy at birth (-0.41 years). For Western German men, the decline was less pronounced (-0.19 years). Among women, the decline in life expectancy at birth was also greater in eastern (-0.25 years) than in Western Germany (-0.10 years). As a result of these developments, the differences in life expectancy between the two parts of Germany, and between women and men, increased compared with the previous year. Life expectancy at age 65 decreased more strongly than life expectancy at birth for both sexes and in all regions. This reflects the fact that it was mainly older age groups that were affected by the increase in mortality in 2020. This paper provides further insights into mortality changes in 2020, based on age decomposition and an analysis of lifespan inequality. We conclude that the population in Eastern Germany was hit harder by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than the population in the Western Germany.

Der Aufsatz untersucht die weltweite Popularisierung des bevölkerungspolitischen Diskurses und leistet damit einen Beitrag zur kritischen Historisierung gegenwärtiger Deutungsmuster. Wie und warum entwickelte sich ein zunächst nur von wenigen Experten als Problem wahrgenommenes Phänomen zu einem globalen Diskurs über die Gegenwart und Zukunft der Menschheit? Im Kontext von Kaltem Krieg und Dekolonisierung rückte das Bevölkerungswachstum in der "Dritten Welt" in den Mittelpunkt demographischer Überlegungen. Amerikanische Stiftungen, überzeugt von der humanitären und sicherheitspolitischen Relevanz des Bevölkerungswachstums, setzten sich massiv für eine globale biopolitische Steuerung ein. Seit Beginn der 1960er-Jahre beeinflussten die Stiftungen und die "epistemische Gemeinschaft" der Bevölkerungsexperten dann auch maßgeblich das Handeln der US-Regierung. Schließlich schwenkten die Vereinten Nationen um 1970 ebenfalls auf eine neo-malthusianische Politik ein. Damit entwickelte sich die Steuerung des Bevölkerungswachstums zu einem zentralen, weithin unstrittigen, aber doch interessengeleiteten Aspekt von Weltinnenpolitik., This article analyses the global proliferation of demographic discourse and contributes to a critical historicisation of current world views. Why and how did a phenomenon, which was initially regarded as a problem only by a few experts, turn into a global discussion about the present state and future of mankind? In the context of the Cold War and decolonisation, population growth in the Third World became the focal point of demographic deliberations. Convinced of the humanitarian relevance of population growth and its influence on security, American foundations strongly supported global biopolitical control. From the early 1960s, foundations and the 'epistemic community' of demographers decisively influenced governmental policies of the United States. By 1970, the United Nations also subscribed to neo-Malthusian policies. The control of population growth thus became a central aspect of global governance which, though not a subject for controversy, was driven by different interests.

Die in diesem Bericht erstmalig vorgestellte Mittelfristprognose (Prognosezeitraum: 5 Jahre) schließt die Lücke zwischen der Engpassanalyse der Bundesagentur für Arbeit zur aktuellen Fachkräftesituation und den bisherigen Langfristprognosen für den Zeitraum von 10 bis 20 Jahren des Fachkräftemonitorings. In der Mittelfristprognose sind Bevölkerungs- und Konjunkturprojektionen aktueller als in der zu letzt veröffentlichten Langfristprojektion "Digitalisierte Arbeitswelt", dennoch geht diese vom selben langfristen Entwicklungspfad und zueinander konsistenten Annahmen aus. Neben einer neu entwickelten QuBe-Indikatorik zur Identifikation von Berufen mit potentiellen Handlungsbedarfen (Fokusberufen) wird in diesem Bericht der Gender Employment Gap als Indikator zur Identifikation von Frauen- bzw. Männerberufen erstmals vorgestellt., The medium-term forecast presented in this report for the first time (forecast period: 5 years) closes the gap between the Engpassanalyse (tool to identify skills shortages by occupationA) of the Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) for the current situation and the previous long-term forecasts for the next 10 to 20 years of the Skilled Lobour Monitoring. In the medium-term forecast, population and economic projections are more up-to-date than in the long-term projection "Digitized world of work", yet the first assumes the same long-term development path and mutually consistent assumptions. In addition to a newly developed QuBe indicator for identifying occupations with potential mismatches (focus occupations), the Gender Employment Gap is presented for the first time in this report as an indicator for identifying female and male occupations.

Higher fertility slowly increases the workers-to-retirees ratio over the long run, which can ease the pension financing challenge brought about by population aging. It may or may not increase production per capita. Existing simulation studies all find a positive impact on public finances over the long run. They however differ on the impact on output per capita. Whether differences are due to model designs or country characteristics is unknown. Using the same macroeconomic model for a sample of 14 European countries, I find that the long-run pension deficits are reduced 27% on average, if one woman out of five had one more child in her lifetime. Variations across countries are small. On the other hand, I find that output per capita increases in all countries from my sample, with one exception. Differences in population structures, ageproductivity profiles and pension systems can explain the exception. Fertility-promoting policies will always ease the public finance challenge due to population aging, but may worsen output per capita if pension payments are too loosely connected to earnings histories or if age-productivity profiles are very steep.

Introducing the German minority subpopulation of southern Chile and concepts of "ethnic" and "cultural" membership, the article proposes a sampling plan based on name typologies found in regional telephone directory entries. The aim is to generate a random sample of 1,000 German-Chileans with their names and addresses, its applications ranging from postal, personal or telephone surveys to qualitative inquiry and marketing or public diplomacy campaigns. Following a test run of the sampling procedure, the viability of the sampling plan is asserted, albeit with some cautious remarks about its limitations. The article argues that the sampling plan can be adapted to research in the context of other ethnic/cultural minorities as well, depending on circumstances.