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Abstract Background Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, with a population that is growing at 2.4% annually. Despite considerable political will, including a national commitment that was endorsed by the president to raise the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) to 50% by 2025, it has stagnated at around 30–35%. Much of the dialogue on raising CPR is hypothetical and revolves around percentage point change rather than an actual number of women that must be served. Methods The Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18 (DHS 2017–18) provides information about the channels through which users receive family planning (FP) services and disaggregates this information at the provincial level. Proportions of users from each of these channels were multiplied by the Pakistan Census-2017 populations to arrive at the number of users. These users were compared with the total FP users and the number of women that had used any FP service in the past 12 months. Linear estimations of population were applied to calculate population numbers in 2025. Results The national target of 50% CPR by 2025 translates to a population of 20.02 million users. Currently, 11.26 million married women of reproductive age (MWRA) use any method, 8.22 million use a modern method and 4.94 million received this service in the past 12 months. Of these, 2.7 million did so from social marketing outlets, 0.76 million from public sector outreach through lady health workers (LHWs), 0.55 million from private sector and 0.88 million from public sector facilities. However, arriving at the CPR target means expanding annual service delivery from 4.94 to 13.7 million users. Since social marketing and LHW outreach may have become saturated, only public and private health facilities are the likely channels for such an expansion. Conclusions We demonstrate triangulation of the survey data with the census data as a simple policy analysis tool that can help decision-makers estimate the quantum of services they must provide. Such an analysis also allows an understanding of the utilization patterns of each of these channels. In Pakistan’s context, underutilization of funds and existing facilities suggests that increased funding or more providers will likely not be helpful. The policy changes that will likely be most effective include adding outreach to support existing public and private sector facilities while ensuring that procurement of commodities is prioritized.

Background: Pakistan is the fifth most populous country in the world, with a population that is growing at 2.4% annually. Despite considerable political will, including a national commitment that was endorsed by the president to raise the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) to 50% by 2025, it has stagnated at around 30–35%. Much of the dialogue on raising CPR is hypothetical and revolves around percentage point change rather than an actual number of women that must be served. Methods: The Demographic and Health Survey 2017–18 (DHS 2017–18) provides information about the channels through which users receive family planning (FP) services and disaggregates this information at the provincial level. Proportions of users from each of these channels were multiplied by the Pakistan Census-2017 populations to arrive at the number of users. These users were compared with the total FP users and the number of women that had used any FP service in the past 12 months. Linear estimations of population were applied to calculate population numbers in 2025. Results: The national target of 50% CPR by 2025 translates to a population of 20.02 million users. Currently, 11.26 million married women of reproductive age (MWRA) use any method, 8.22 million use a modern method and 4.94 million received this service in the past 12 months. Of these, 2.7 million did so from social marketing outlets, 0.76 million from public sector outreach through lady health workers (LHWs), 0.55 million from private sector and 0.88 million from public sector facilities. However, arriving at the CPR target means expanding annual service delivery from 4.94 to 13.7 million users. Since social marketing and LHW outreach may have become saturated, only public and private health facilities are the likely channels for such an expansion. Conclusions: We demonstrate triangulation of the survey data with the census data as a simple policy analysis tool that can help decision-makers estimate the quantum of services they must provide. Such an analysis also allows an understanding of the utilization patterns of each of these channels. In Pakistan's context, underutilization of funds and existing facilities suggests that increased funding or more providers will likely not be helpful. The policy changes that will likely be most effective include adding outreach to support existing public and private sector facilities while ensuring that procurement of commodities is prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gersemia rubiformis is a soft coral belonging to the family Nephtheidae, known to provide habitat for many organisms and to play an essential role in benthic ecosystems. The present study examined the relationship between G. rubiformis and the epibiotic amphipod Stenula nordmanni in the coastal waters of eastern Canada. The prevalence of the association was 100% with an average burden of 35 amphipods (mostly juveniles) per coral host. The sex ratio in the amphipods was female-biased and there was a distinct sexual dimorphism, males being significantly larger than females. In a single coral colony, about 38% of female amphipods were found to brood propagules at various stages of development up to juveniles. Upon release, juvenile amphipods were transparent and acquired the pink color characteristic of the adult by feeding on the coral tissues, thereby mimicking the coloration of the host. Ingestion of coral tissues was confirmed by the presence of host sclerites in the digestive tract of amphipods. In turn, amphipods were seen to protect their host by repulsing predatory nudibranchs approaching the coral colony. Together, findings suggest that the amphipods display a specific and obligate mutualistic association with their coral host, considering that they benefit from shelter and food, and the host benefits from active protection against potential predators. The apparent trophic relationship does not appear to generate any detriment to the host. In addition, some of the symbiotic amphipods examined were found to be hosts themselves, to chytrid fungi attached to their exoskeleton. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cost effectiveness analyses (CEAs) are widely used to evaluate the opportunity cost of health care investments. However, few functions that take equity concerns into account are available for such CEA methods, and these concerns are therefore at risk of being disregarded. Among the functions that have been developed, most focus on the distribution of health gains, as opposed to the distribution of lifetime health. This is despite the fact that there are good reasons to give higher priority to individuals and groups with a low quality adjusted life expectancy from birth (QALE). Also, an even distribution of health gains may imply an uneven distribution of lifetime health. Methods: We develop a systematic and explicit approach that allows for the inclusion of lifetime health concerns in CEAs, by creating a new priority weight function, PW = α+(t-γ)·C·e-β·(t-γ), where t is the health measure. PW has several desirable properties. First, it is continuous and smooth, ensuring that people with similar health characteristics are treated alike. For example, those who achieve 50 QALE should be treated similarly to those who achieve 49.9 QALE. Second, it is flexible regarding shape and outcome measure (i.e., caters to other measures than QALE), so that a broad range of values may be modelled. Third, the coefficients have distinct roles. This allows for the easy manipulation of the PW's shape. In order to demonstrate how PW may be applied, we use data from a previous study and estimated the coefficients of PW based on two approaches. Conclusions: Equity concerns are important when conducting CEAs, which means that suitable PWs should be developed. We do not intend to determine which PW is the most appropriate, but to illustrate how a flexible general PW can be estimated based on empirical data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is the most abundant cervid in Europe and, as such, has a considerable impact over several human activities. Accurate roe deer population size estimates are useful to ensure their proper management. We tested 3 methods for estimating roe deer abundance (drive counts, pellet-group counts, and camera trapping) during two consecutive years (2012 and 2013) in the Apennines (Italy) in order to assess their precision and applicability. During the study period, population density estimates were: drive counts 21.89±12.74 roe deer/km2 and pellet-group counts 18.74±2.31 roe deer/km2 in 2012; drive counts 19.32±11.12 roe deer/km2 and camera trapping 29.05±7.48 roe deer/km2 in 2013. Precision of the density estimates differed widely among the 3 methods, with coefficients of variation ranging from 12% (pellet-group counts) to 58% (drive counts). Drive counts represented the most demanding method on account of the higher number of operators involved. Pellet-group counts yielded the most precise results and required a smaller number of operators, though the sampling effort was considerable. When compared to the other two methods, camera trapping resulted in an intermediate level of precision and required the lowest sampling effort. We also discussed field protocols of each method, considering that volunteers, rather than technicians, will more likely be appointed for these tasks in the near future. For this reason, we strongly suggest that for each method managers of population density monitoring projects take into account ease of use as well as the quality of the results obtained and the resources required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neonatal mortality is a significant contributor to infant mortality. Causes and predictors of neonatal death are known to vary in different settings and across different contexts. This study aimed to assess predictors, causes, and trends of neonatal mortality amongst neonates admitted to Nekemte Referral Hospital neonatal unit between 2010–2014. Methods: Retrospective data was collected for 2090 live born neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Nekemte Referral Hospital by reviewing records between 2010 to 2014. Variables were collected from the neonatal registration book and patient card on the predictors, causes, and trends of neonatal death using a standard checklist developed by the World Health Organization (WHO). Data was analyzed using Epi info version 3.5.1, and SPSS version 25 for windows. The level of significance was set at P<0.05 with the corresponding confidence intervals at 95%. A logistic regression model was used for analysis and to control for confounders. Microsoft Excel 2007 was used to construct the trend analysis. Results: There were 183 deaths in the cohort equivalent to 8.8% of deaths among total admitted neonates during the study period. Early neonatal deaths accounted for 8% and late neonatal deaths accounted for 0.71% of deaths among total admitted neonates. Main predictors identified for an increased risk of neonatal mortality were; neonates from rural residents [AOR 1.35, (95% CI, 1.35–1.87)], birth order of greater than five [AOR 5.10, (95% CI, 1.15–22.63)], home delivery [AOR 3.41, (95% CI, 2.24–5.19)], very low birth weight [AOR 6.75, (95% CI, 3.63–12.54)] and low birth weight [AOR 2.81, (95% CI, 1.95–4.05)] and inability to cry at birth [AOR 2.21, (95% CI, 1.51–3.22)]. The trend analysis showed a sharp fall for the neonatal mortality over the last five years with a mean reduction of 16%. Conclusions: Data from the Nekemte Referral Hospital Neonatal Intensive Care Unit analysis revealed majority of the deaths were occurred during early neonatal period. The main predictors of neonatal mortality identified from this study needs strengthening an appropriate public health intervention through addressing antenatal care, curbing home delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use agent-based computer simulation to test the effect of environmental conditions (available biomass/carrying capacity and environmental risk) on the development of wealth inequality and patron-client herding networks in nomadic pastoral economies. Our results show that 1) wealth inequality reaches very high levels when carrying capacity is high and risk is low, and 2) patron-client contract herding networks increase in size and duration when carrying capacity is high and risk is low. We compare empirical data from the Mongol (1206–1368 CE) and Xiongnu (209 BCE– 48 CE) empires with simulation results to develop an explanatory mechanism for the apparent correlation between nomadic empire creation and positive environmental conditions. We argue that the internal dynamics of nomadic pastoral societies are sufficient to produce high degrees of inequality and hierarchical herding networks. Nomadic empires are more likely to form during key periods of increased biomass and decreased environmental risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As our capacity to collect and store health data is increasing, a new challenge of transforming data into meaningful information for disease monitoring and surveillance has arisen. The aim of this study was to explore the potential of using livestock mortality and antibiotic consumption data as a proxy for detecting disease outbreaks at herd level. Changes in the monthly records of mortality and antibiotic consumption were monitored in Danish swine herds that became positive for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) and porcine pleuropneumonia. Laboratory serological results were used to identify herds that changed from a negative to a positive status for the diseases. A dynamic linear model with a linear growth component was used to model the data. Alarms about state changes were raised based on forecast errors, changes in the growth component, and the values of the retrospectively smoothed values of the growth component. In all cases, the alarms were defined based on credible intervals and assessed prior and after herds got a positive disease status. The number of herds with alarms based on mortality increased by 3% in the 3 months prior to laboratory confirmation of PRRS-positive herds (Se = 0.47). A 22% rise in the number of weaner herds with alarms based on the consumption of antibiotics for respiratory diseases was found 1 month prior to these herds becoming PRRS-positive (Se = 0.22). For porcine pleuropneumonia-positive herds, a 10% increase in antibiotic consumption for respiratory diseases in sow herds was seen 1 month prior to a positive result (Se = 0.5). Monitoring changes in mortality data and antibiotic consumption showed changes at herd level prior to and in the same month as confirmation from diagnostic tests. These results also show a potential value for using these data streams as part of surveillance strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

South Korea is ranked as 4th among 34 nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development with 102 deaths in road accidents per one million population. This paper aims to investigate the factors associated with road accidents in South Korea. The rainfall data of the Korea Meteorological Administration and road accidents data of Traffic Accident Analysis System of Korea Road Traffic Authority is analyzed for this purpose. In this connection, multivariate regression analysis and ratio analysis with the descriptive analysis are performed to uncover the catastrophic factors involved. In turn, the results reveal that traffic volume is the leading factor in road accidents. The limited road extension of 1.47% compared to the 4.14% per annum growth of the vehicles is resulting in road accidents at such a large scale. The increasing proportion of passenger cars accelerate road accidents as well. 56% of accidents occur by the infringement of safety driving violations. The drivers with higher driving experience tend to have a higher accident ratio. The collected data is analyzed in terms of gender, driver experience, type of violations and accidents as well as the associated time of the accidents when they happen. The results indicate that 36.29% and 53.01% of accidents happen by male drivers in the day and night time, respectively. 29.15% of crashes happen due to safety infringement and violations of 41 to 60 years old drivers. The results demonstrate that population density is associated with the accidents frequency and lower density results in an increased number of accidents. The necessity of the state-of-the-art regulations to govern the urban road traffic is beyond dispute, and it becomes even more crucial for citizens’ relief since in our daily lives road accidents are getting more diverse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nigeria has a plural legal system in which various sources of law govern simultaneously. Inconsistent and conflicting legal frameworks can reinforce pre–existing health disparities in sexual and reproductive health (SRH). While previous studies indicate poor SRH outcomes for Nigerian women and girls, particularly in Northern states, the relationship between customary and religious law (CRL) and SRH has not been explored. We conducted a state-level ecological study to examine the relationship between CRL and SRH outcomes among women in 36 Nigerian states and the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja (n = 37), using publicly available Demographic and Health Survey data from 2013. Indicators were guided by published research and included contraception use among married women, total fertility rate, median age at first birth, receipt of antenatal care, delivery location, and comprehensive knowledge of HIV. To account for economic differences between states, crude linear regression models were compared to a multivariable model, adjusting for per capita GDP. All SRH outcomes, except comprehensive knowledge of HIV, were statistically significantly more negative in CRL states compared to non–CRL states, even after accounting for state–level GDP. In CRL states in 2013, compared to non–CRL states, the proportion of married women who used any method of contraception was 22.7 percentage points lower ([95% CI: −15.78 –−29.64], p<0.001), a difference that persisted in a model adjusting for per capita GDP (b[adj] = −16.15, 95% CI: [−8.64 –−23.66], p<0.001.). While this analysis of retrospective state-level data found robust associations between CRL and poor SRH outcomes, future research should incorporate prospective individual-level data to further elucidate these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbial endosymbiosis is widespread in animals, with major ecological and evolutionary implications. Successful symbiosis relies on efficient vertical transmission through host generations. However, when symbionts negatively affect host fitness, hosts are expected to evolve suppression of symbiont effects or transmission. Here, we show that sex chromosomes control vertical transmission of feminizing Wolbachia endosymbionts in the isopod Armadillidium nasatum. Theory predicts that the invasion of an XY/XX species by cytoplasmic sex ratio distorters is unlikely because it leads to fixation of the unusual (and often lethal or infertile) YY genotype. We demonstrate that A. nasatum X and Y sex chromosomes are genetically highly similar and that YY individuals are viable and fertile, thereby enabling Wolbachia spread in this XY-XX species. Nevertheless, we show that Wolbachia cannot drive fixation of YY individuals, because infected YY females do not transmit Wolbachia to their offspring, unlike XX and XY females. The genetic basis fits the model of a Y-linked recessive allele (associated with an X-linked dominant allele), in which the homozygous state suppresses Wolbachia transmission. Moreover, production of all-male progenies by infected YY females restores a balanced sex ratio at the host population level. This suggests that blocking of Wolbachia transmission by YY females may have evolved to suppress feminization, thereby offering a whole new perspective on the evolutionary interplay between microbial symbionts and host sex chromosomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lorenz von Seidlein and colleagues discuss improving house designs in rural Africa to benefit health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the discovery that entomopathogenic fungi can live inside plants as endophytes, researchers have been trying to understand how this affects mainly plants and herbivores. We studied how inoculation of Vicia faba L. (Fabales: Fabaceae) plants with Beauveria bassiana (Balsamo-Crivelli) Vuillemin (Ascomycota: Hypocreales) (strain GHA) either via the seeds or leaves influenced the nymph production of two successive generations of Aphis fabae Scopoli (Hemiptera: Aphididae). While we did not find any difference in nymph production for the first generation of aphids, second-generation aphids on both seed- and spray inoculated plants produced significantly higher numbers of nymphs than aphids on uninoculated plants. This emphasizes the importance of two (or multi-) generational experimentation. Beauveria bassiana was recovered from 26.0, 68.8 and 6.3% of respectively seed-, spray inoculated and control plants, thus, demonstrating its ability to live as an endophyte in V. faba. The confirmation that plants inoculated with entomopathogenic fungi can have a positive effect on pest insects makes careful consideration of these multi-trophic interactions imperative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Message passing between components of a distributed physical system is non-instantaneous and contributes to determine the time scales of the emerging collective dynamics. In biological neuron networks this is due in part to local synaptic filtering of exchanged spikes, and in part to the distribution of the axonal transmission delays. How differently these two kinds of communication protocols affect the network dynamics is still an open issue due to the difficulties in dealing with the non-Markovian nature of synaptic transmission. Here, we develop a mean-field dimensional reduction yielding to an effective Markovian dynamics of the population density of the neuronal membrane potential, valid under the hypothesis of small fluctuations of the synaptic current. Within this limit, the resulting theory allows us to prove the formal equivalence between the two transmission mechanisms, holding for any synaptic time scale, integrate-and-fire neuron model, spike emission regimes and for different network states even when the neuron number is finite. The equivalence holds even for larger fluctuations of the synaptic input, if white noise currents are incorporated to model other possible biological features such as ionic channel stochasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Despite increased treatment availability, HIV-infected individuals continue to start antiretroviral therapy (ART) late in disease progression, increasing early mortality risk. Materials and methods: Nested prospective cohort study within a randomized clinical trial of adult patients initiating ART at clinics in urban Nairobi and rural Maseno, Kenya, between 2013–2014. We estimated mortality incidence rates following ART initiation and used Cox proportional hazards regression to identify predictors of mortality within 12 months of ART initiation. Analyses were stratified by clinic site to examine differences in mortality correlates and risk by location. Results: Among 811 participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rate within a year of initiating ART was 7.44 per 100 person-years (95% CI 5.71, 9.69). Among 207 Maseno and 612 Nairobi participants initiated on ART, the mortality incidence rates (per 100 person-years) were 12.78 (95% CI 8.49, 19.23) and 5.72 (95% CI 4.05, 8.09). Maseno had a 2.20-fold greater risk of mortality than Nairobi (95% CI 1.29, 3.76; P = 0.004). This association remained [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.09 (95% CI 1.17, 3.74); P = 0.013] when adjusting for age, gender, education, pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR), and CD4 count, but not when adjusting for BMI. In unadjusted analyses, other predictors (P<0.05) of mortality included male gender (HR = 1.74), age (HR = 1.04 for 1-year increase), fewer years of education (HR = 0.92 for 1-year increase), unemployment (HR = 1.89), low body mass index (BMI<18.5 m/kg2; HR = 4.99), CD4 count <100 (HR = 11.67) and 100–199 (HR = 3.40) vs. 200–350 cells/μL, and pre-treatment drug resistance (PDR; HR = 2.49). The increased mortality risk associated with older age, males, and greater education remained when adjusted for location, age, education and PDR, but not when adjusted for BMI and CD4 count. PDR remained associated with increased mortality risk when adjusted for location, age, gender, education, and BMI, but not when adjusted for CD4 count. CD4 and BMI associations with increased mortality risk persisted in multivariable analyses. Despite similar baseline CD4 counts across locations, mortality risk associated with low CD4 count, low BMI, and PDR was greater in Maseno than Nairobi in stratified analyses. Conclusions: High short-term post-ART mortality was observed, partially due to low CD4 count and BMI at presentation, especially in the rural setting. Male gender, older age, and markers of lower socioeconomic status were also associated with greater mortality risk. Engaging patients earlier in HIV infection remains critical. PDR may influence short-term mortality and further studies to optimize management will be important in settings with increasing PDR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients with cirrhosis and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) present dilemma whether dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) should be used. Methods: Electronic medical records between 2001–2013 were retrieved from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients were excluded for missing information, age <20 years old, history of AMI, liver transplant, autoimmune disease, coagulopathy, taking DAPT 3 months before index date, follow-up <3 months, anticoagulation user, without DAPT, and events of myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, major bleeding, and heart failure within 3-month of enrollment. Primary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, recurrent MI, major bleeding, and gastrointestinal bleeding. Results: A total of 150,887 patients with AMI retrieved. After exclusion criteria and propensity score-matching, 914 cirrhotic and 3,656 non-cirrhotic patients with AMI on DAPT were studied. During 1-year follow-up, there was significantly increased mortality in cirrhotic patients compared to non-cirrhotic patients (HR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.28–1.74). There was significantly decreased recurrent MI in cirrhotic patients compared to non-cirrhotic patients (subdistribution HR [SHR] = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.54–0.92). However, non-significantly increased major bleeding (SHR = 1.23, 95% CI = 0.87–1.73) and significantly increased gastrointestinal bleeding (SHR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.31–1.70). Conclusions: In cirrhotic patients with AMI, DAPT offers benefit with decreased recurrent MI at the expense of increased gastrointestinal bleeding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are one of the most common infections in older people and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. UTIs are also associated with increased risk of antimicrobial resistance (AR). This study examined changes in AR among older inpatients with a primary diagnosis of UTIs in the United States over an 8-year period and the impact of AR on clinical outcomes and hospital costs. Data were obtained from the longitudinal hospital HCUP-NIS database from 2009 to 2016 for inpatient episodes that involved those aged 65+ years. The ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes were used to identify episodes with a primary diagnosis of UTIs, comorbidities, AR status and age-adjusted Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) for the patient concerned. Weighted multivariable regression was used to examine the impact of AR on all-cause inpatient mortality, discharge destination, length of stay and hospital expenditures, adjusted for socio-demographic and clinical covariates. The proportion of admissions with AR increased, from 3.64% in 2009 to 6.88% in 2016 (p<0.001), with distinct patterns for different types of resistance. The likelihood of AR was higher in admissions with high ACCI scores and admissions to hospitals in urban areas. Admissions with AR were more likely to be discharged to healthcare facilities (e.g. care homes) compared to routine discharge (OR 1.81; 95%CI, 1.75–1.86), had increased length of stay (1.12 days; 95%CI, 1.06–1.18) and hospital costs (1259 USD; 95%CI, 1178–1340). Resistance due to MRSA was specifically associated with increased hospital mortality (OR 1.33; 95%CI, 1.15–1.53). Our findings suggest that the prevalence of AR has increased among older inpatients with UTIs in the USA. The study highlights the impact of AR among older inpatients with a primary diagnosis of UTIs on clinical outcomes and hospital costs. These relationships and their implications for the care homes to which patients are frequently discharged warrant further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Physical therapy can prevent functional impairments and improve the quality of life of patients after hospital discharge. However, the effect of early mobilization on patients with a critical illness remains unclear. This study was performed to assess the evidence available regarding the effect of early mobilization on critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: Electronic databases were searched from their inception to March 21, 2019. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comprising critically ill patients who received early mobilization were included. The methodological quality and risk of bias of each eligible trial were assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration tool. Data were extracted using a standard collection form each included study, and processed using the Mantel-Haenszel (M-H) or inverse-variance (I-V) test in the STATA v12.0 statistical software. Results: A total of 1,898 records were screened. Twenty-three RCTs comprising 2,308 critically ill patients were ultimately included. Early mobilization decreased the incidence of ICU-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) at hospital discharge (three studies, 190 patients, relative risk (RR): 0.60, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.40, 0.90]; p = 0.013, I2 = 0.0%), increased the number of patients who were able to stand (one study, 50 patients, 90% vs. 62%, p = 0.02), increased the number of ventilator-free days (six studies, 745 patients, standardized mean difference (SMD): 0.17, 95% CI [0.02, 0.31]; p = 0.023, I2 = 35.5%) during hospitalization, increased the distance the patient was able to walk unassisted (one study, 104 patients, 33.4 (0–91.4) meters vs. 0 (0–30.4) meters, p = 0.004) at hospital discharge, and increased the discharged-to-home rate (seven studies, 793 patients, RR: 1.16, 95% CI [1.00, 1.34]; p = 0.046). The mortality (28-day, ICU and hospital) and adverse event rates were moderately increased by early mobilization, but the differences were statistically non-significant. However, due to the substantial heterogeneity among the included studies, and the low quality of the evidence, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution. Publication bias was not identified. Conclusions: Early mobilization appears to decrease the incidence of ICU-AW, improve the functional capacity, and increase the number of ventilator-free days and the discharged-to-home rate for patients with a critical illness in the ICU setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There was a pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) in 2009; in Korea, there was also an H1N1 epidemic in 2016. We aim to investigate whether survival had improved in the setting of recent advances in intensive care unit (ICU) management. We conducted a retrospective analysis of acute respiratory failure patients with H1N1 influenza pneumonia in 2016 and 2009 respectively at two tertiary referral hospitals in Korea. A total of 28 patients were treated in 2016, and 34 in 2009. There was no significant difference in SOFA scores on ICU admission day. In-hospital mortality was significantly lower in patients of 2016 compared to those of 2009 (18% vs. 44% P = 0.028). By multivariable analyses, the treatment year 2016 was associated with a greater likelihood of survival. Compared to the patients treated in 2009, those treated in 2016 were one seventh as likely to die after adjusting for other clinical variables (hazard ratio for mortality, 0.15; 95% confidence interval. 0.03–0.63, P = 0.010). Improved survival in patients who underwent extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treatment (in-hospital mortality, 17% vs. 60%, P = 0.242) and decreased tidal volumes during mechanical ventilation (median 5.4 mL/kg vs. median 9.2 mL/kg, P = 0.018) were observed in 2016 compared to 2009. Treatment outcomes for patients with H1N1 acute respiratory failure improved from 2009 to 2016 in two tertiary referral centers in South Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-uniform rates of morphological evolution and evolutionary increases in organismal complexity, captured in metaphors like “adaptive zones”, “punctuated equilibrium” and “blunderbuss patterns”, require more elaborate explanations than a simple gradual accumulation of mutations. Here we argue that non-uniform evolutionary increases in phenotypic complexity can be caused by a threshold-like response to growing ecological pressures resulting from evolutionary diversification at a given level of complexity. Acquisition of a new phenotypic feature allows an evolving species to escape this pressure but can typically be expected to carry significant physiological costs. Therefore, the ecological pressure should exceed a certain level to make such an acquisition evolutionarily successful. We present a detailed quantitative description of this process using a microevolutionary competition model as an example. The model exhibits sequential increases in phenotypic complexity driven by diversification at existing levels of complexity and a resulting increase in competitive pressure, which can push an evolving species over the barrier of physiological costs of new phenotypic features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Data on engagement in HIV care from population-based samples in sub-Saharan Africa are limited. The objective of this study was to use double-sampling methods to estimate linkage to HIV care, ART initiation, and mortality among all adults diagnosed with HIV by a comprehensive home-based counseling and testing (HBCT) program in western Kenya. Methods: HBCT was conducted door-to-door from December 2009 to April 2011 in three sub-counties of western Kenya by AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare). For those identified as HIV-positive, data were merged with electronic medical records to determine engagement with HIV care. A randomly-drawn follow-up sample of 120 adults identified via HBCT who had not linked to care as of June 2015 in Bunyala sub-county were visited by trained fieldworkers to ascertain HIV care engagement and vital status. Double-sampled data were used to generate, via multinomial regression, predicted probabilities of engagement in care and mortality among those whose status could not be ascertained by matching with the electronic medical records in the three catchments. Results: Incorporating information from the double-sampling yielded estimates of prospective linkage to HIV care that ranged from 40–45%. Mortality estimates of those who did not engage in care following HBCT ranged from 12–16%. Among those who linked to care following HBCT, between 72–81% initiated ART. Discussion: In settings without universal national identifiers, rates of linkage to care from community-based programs may be subject to substantial underestimation. Follow-up samples of those with missing information can be used to partially correct this bias, as has been demonstrated previously for mortality among those who were lost-to-care programs. There is a need for harmonized data systems across health systems and programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, changes in urinary albumin and in GFR have been recognized as risk factors for the development of end-stage kidney disease and mortality. Though most clinical epidemiology studies of chronic kidney disease (CKD) used renal function and proteinuria at baseline alone, definitive diagnosis of CKD with multiple measurements intensifies the differences in the risk for mortality between the CKD and non-CKD populations. We hypothesized that a transient diagnosis of proteinuria and reduced renal function each indicate a significantly higher mortality compared to definitive non-CKD as the negative control and lower mortality compared with definitive CKD as the positive control. The present longitudinal study evaluated a general-population cohort of 338,094 persons who received annual health checkups, with a median 4.3-year study period. There were 2,481 deaths, including 510 CVD deaths (20.6%) and 1,328 cancer deaths (53.5%), and mortality risk was evaluated for transient proteinuria and for transiently reduced renal function. The hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality and cancer mortality were not significant, but that for cardiovascular mortality was significantly higher for transient proteinuria (HR, 1.94 [95% confidence interval, 1.27–2.96] in men and 2.78 [1.50–5.16] in women). On the other hand, transiently reduced renal function was not significant for either cardiovascular mortality risk or cancer mortality risk. We surmise that this is the first study of the mortality risk of transient dipstick proteinuria in a large general-population cohort with cause-specific death registration. Transiently positive proteinuria appears to be a significant risk specifically for cardiovascular mortality compared with definitely negative for proteinuria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To stipulate a new definition for long-stay patients (LSPs) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). We defined LSPs as the 10% of patients with the longest PICU length-of-stay (LOS) for each age and diagnostic group. To assess whether the thresholds (days of PICU stay) for the definition of LSPs in PICU significantly differ among diagnostic and age categories. To determine whether independent associations exist between patients’ characteristics at admission and LSPs diagnosis in pre-specified diagnostic and age groups. Methods: This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including all PICUs in Switzerland. Multivariable regression analysis was used to seek for association between patients’ variables at admission and LSPs Results: We included 22,284 patients with a median (IQR) age of 12 (1–84) months. Significantly different thresholds across diagnostic and age subgroups are identified. Readmission to PICU, higher PIM2 and NEMS (a score used to quantify nursing workload at intensive care unit level) at admission were associated with higher likelihood of becoming LSPs. Conclusions: Our results showed a significantly different definitions of LSPs for specific diagnoses and age categories. Readmission to PICU and higher acuity at admission are associated with longer PICU length-of-stay in the majority of diagnostic groups. A more personalized definition of LSPs in children based on actual patients’ characteristics should probably be used in an effort to optimize care and reduce costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In September's Editorial, Vikram Patel and Pattie Gonsalves discuss suicide prevention, the focus of World Mental Health Day, 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observational studies have demonstrated that de-escalation of antimicrobial therapy is independently associated with lower mortality. This most probably results from confounding by indication. Reaching clinical stability is associated with the decision to de-escalate and with survival. However, studies rarely adjust for this confounder. We quantified the potential confounding effect of clinical stability on the estimated impact of de-escalation on mortality in patients with community-acquired pneumonia. Data were used from the Community-Acquired Pneumonia immunization Trial in Adults (CAPiTA). The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We performed Cox proportional-hazards regression with de-escalation as time-dependent variable and adjusted for baseline characteristics using propensity scores. The potential impact of unmeasured confounding was quantified through simulating a variable representing clinical stability on day three, using data on prevalence and associations with mortality from the literature. Of 1,536 included patients, 257 (16.7%) were de-escalated, 123 (8.0%) were escalated and in 1156 (75.3%) the antibiotic spectrum remained unchanged. Crude 30-day mortality was 3.5% (9/257) and 10.9% (107/986) in the de-escalation and continuation groups, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio of de-escalation for 30-day mortality (compared to patients with unchanged coverage), without adjustment for clinical stability, was 0.39 (95%CI: 0.19–0.79). If 90% to 100% of de-escalated patients were clinically stable on day three, the fully adjusted hazard ratio would be 0.56 (95%CI: 0.27–1.12) to 1.04 (95%CI: 0.49–2.23), respectively. The simulated confounder was substantially stronger than any of the baseline confounders in our dataset. Quantification of effects of de-escalation on patient outcomes without proper adjustment for clinical stability results in strong negative bias. This study suggests the effect of de-escalation on mortality needs further well-designed prospective research to determine effect size more accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the absence of constraints, preference for larger mates is expected to evolve, as larger individuals are typical of higher potential fitness. Large females are often more fecund and carry larger eggs (which result in higher number and better quality of offspring), whereas large males usually have more conspicuous ornaments and are better at defending resources. However, intrasexual competition can constrain the access to larger partners, especially when opportunities for mate takeover abound. Here we investigate the relationship between individual’s size and mate choice in relation to one’s own size and their respective mate’s size using the sailfin tetra, a sexually dimorphic Amazonian fish species. We show that ornaments of larger males are exponentially more conspicuous, and larger females are more fecund and carry larger eggs. Contrary to expectation, neither males nor females associated for longer with the larger of two offered potential mates. Instead, individuals of both genders chose opposite-sex individuals of similar sizes to themselves. Additionally, similar-sized pairs were more likely to spawn than couples with higher size asymmetries. Grounded on field observations, we propose that prudent choice should be particularly important in this system, since courtship is long (often taking several days), which offers opportunities for mate takeover. Intrasexual competition, however, cannot readily explain female choice for similar-sized males. We thus suggest that such preference might be best explained by avoidance of filial cannibalism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems play a key role in upholding human rights and generating data for health and good governance. They also can help monitor progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Although many countries have made substantial progress in strengthening their CRVS systems, most low- and middle-income countries still have underdeveloped systems. The objective of this systematic review is to identify national policies that can help countries strengthen their systems.Methods and Findings: The ABI/INFORM, Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, and WHO Index Medicus databases were systematically searched for policies to improve birth and/or death registration on 24 January 2017. Global stakeholders were also contacted for relevant grey literature. For the purposes of this review, policies were categorised as supply, demand, incentive, penalty, or combination (i.e., at least two of the preceding policy approaches). Quantitative results on changes in vital event registration rates were presented for individual comparative articles. Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative syntheses on operational considerations encompassing acceptability to recipients and staff, human resource requirements, information technology or infrastructure requirements, costs to the health system, unintended effects, facilitators, and barriers. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018085768. Thirty-five articles documenting experience in implementing policies to improve birth and/or death registration were identified. Although 25 countries representing all global regions (Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Western Pacific, Europe, and the Eastern Mediterranean) were reflected, there were limited countries from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Twenty-four articles reported policy effects on birth and/or death registration. Twenty-one of the 24 articles found that the change in registration rate after the policy was positive, with two supply and one penalty articles being the exceptions. The qualitative syntheses identified 15 operational considerations across all policy categories. Human and financial resource requirements were not quantified. The primary limitation of this systematic review was the threat of publication bias wherein many countries may not have documented their experience; this threat is most concerning for policies that had neutral or negative effects.Conclusions: Our systematic review suggests that combination policy approaches, consisting of at least a supply and demand component, were consistently associated with improved registration rates in different geographical contexts. Operational considerations should be interpreted based on health system, governance, and sociocultural context. More evaluations and research are needed from the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe regions. Further research and evaluation are also needed to estimate the human and financial resource requirements required for different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of healthcare-associated infections (as opposed to hospital-acquired infections) in intraabdominal infections (IAIs) is scarcely supported by data in the literature. The aim of the present study was to analyse community-onset IAIs (non-postoperative/non-nosocomial) in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), to investigate differences in resistance patterns linked to healthcare exposure and mortality-associated factors. A one-year prospective observational study (17 Spanish ICUs) was performed distributing cases as healthcare-associated infections (HCAI), community-acquired infections (CAI) and immunocompromised patients (ICP). Bacteria producing extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBL) and/or carbapenemase (CPE), high-level aminoglycoside- and/or methicillin- and/or vancomycin- resistance were considered antimicrobial resistant (AMR). Mortality-associated factors were identified by regression multivariate analysis. Of 345 patients included (18.8% HCAI, 6.1% ICP, 75.1% CAI), 51.6% presented generalized peritonitis; 32.5% were >75 years (55.4% among HCAI). Overall, 11.0% cases presented AMR (7.0% ESBL- and/or CPE), being significantly higher in HCAI (35.4%) vs. CAI (5.8%) (p<0.001) vs. ICP (0%) (p = 0.003). Overall 30-day mortality was 14.5%: 23.1% for HCAI and 11.6% for CAI (p = 0.016). Mortality (R2 = 0.262, p = 0.021) was positively associated with age >75 years (OR = 6.67, 95%CI = 2.56–17.36,p<0.001), Candida isolation (OR = 3.05, 95%CI = 1.18–7.87,p = 0.022), and SAPS II (per-point, OR = 1.08, 95%CI = 1.05–1.11, p<0.001) and negatively with biliary infections (OR = 0.06, 95%CI = 0.01–0.48,p = 0.008). In this study, the antimicrobial susceptibility pattern of bacteria isolated from patients with healthcare contact was shifted to resistance, suggesting the need for consideration of the healthcare category (not including hospital-acquired infections) for severe IAIs. 30-day mortality was positively related with age >75 years, severity and Candida isolation but not with AMR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The benefits and efficacy of control programs for herds infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) have been investigated under various contexts. However, most previous research investigated paratuberculosis control programs in isolation, without modeling the potential association with other dairy diseases. This paper evaluated the benefits of MAP control programs when the herd is also affected by mastitis, a common disease causing the largest losses in dairy production. The effect of typically suggested MAP controls were estimated under the assumption that MAP infection increased the rate of clinical mastitis. We evaluated one hundred twenty three control strategies comprising various combinations of testing, culling, and hygiene, and found that the association of paratuberculosis with mastitis alters the ranking of specific MAP control programs, but only slightly alters the cost-benefit difference of particular MAP control components, as measured by the distribution of net present value of a representative U.S. dairy operation. In particular, although testing and culling for MAP resulted in a reduction in MAP incidence, that control led to lower net present value (NPV) per cow. When testing was used, ELISA was more economically beneficial than alternative testing regimes, especially if mastitis was explicitly modeled as more likely in MAP-infected animals, but ELISA testing was only significantly associated with higher NPV if mastitis was not included in the model at all. Additional hygiene was associated with a lower NPV per cow, although it lowered MAP prevalence. Overall, the addition of an increased risk of mastitis in MAP-infected animals did not change model recommendations as much as failing to consider. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is criticized by some as an expensive treatment in super-elder patients with limited life expectancy. However, there is a knowledge gap regarding the magnitude of clinical benefit provided by TAVI in comparison with conservative management in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) in real clinical practice, which would be important in the decision making for TAVI. Methods: We combined two independent registries, namely CURRENT AS and K-TAVI registries. CURRENT AS was a multicenter registry enrolling 3815 consecutive patients with severe AS irrespective to treatment modalities between January 2003 and December 2011. K-TAVI was a multicenter, prospective registry including 449 consecutive patients with severe AS, who underwent TAVI with SAPIEN XT balloon-expandable valves between October 2013 and June 2016. In these 2 registries, 449 patients received TAVI and 894 patients were managed with conservative strategy. We conducted propensity score matching and finally obtained a cohort of 556 patients (278 patients for each group) for the analysis. The primary outcome measures were all-cause death and heart failure (HF) hospitalization at 2-year. Results: The cumulative 2-year incidences of all-cause death and HF hospitalization were significantly lower in the TAVI group than in the conservative group (16.8% versus 36.6%, P<0.001, and 10.7% versus 37.2%, P<0.001). After adjusting the residual confounders, TAVI reduced the risks of all-cause death (HR, 0.46; 95%CI, 0.32–0.69; P = 0.0001) and HF hospitalizations (HR, 0.25; 95%CI, 0.16–0.40; P<0.0001) compared with conservative strategy. There was no difference in the cumulative incidence of non-cardiovascular death between the 2 groups. Conclusions: TAVI in the early Japanese experience was associated with striking risk reduction for all-cause death as well as HF hospitalization as compared with the historical cohort of patients with severe AS who were managed conservatively just before introduction of TAVI in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate prognostic evaluation is a key factor in the clinical management of patients affected by severe acute brain injury (ABI) and helps planning focused therapies, better caregiver’s support and allocation of resources. Aim of the study was to assess factors independently associated with both the short and long-term outcomes after rehabilitation in patients affected by ABI in the setting of a single Rehabilitation Unit specifically allocated to these patients. Methods and findings: In all patients (567) with age ≥ 18 years discharged from the Unit in the period 2006/2015 demographic, etiologic, comorbidity indicators, and descriptors of the disability burden (at hospital admission and discharge) were evaluated as potential prognostic factors of both short-term (4 classes of disability status at discharge) and long-term (mortality) outcomes. A comprehensive analytical method was adopted to combine several tasks. Select the factors with a significant independent association with the outcome, assess the relative weights and the “stability” (by bootstrap resampling) of them and estimate the role of the prognostic models in the clinical framework considering “cost” and “benefits”. The generalized ordered logistic model for ordinal dependent variables was used for the short-term outcome while the Cox proportional hazard model was used for the long-term outcome. The final short-term model identified 7 factors that independently account for 37% of the outcome variability as shown by pseudo R2 (pR2) = 0.37. The disability status descriptors show the strongest association since they account for more than 60% of the pR2, followed by age (14.8%), the presence of percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy or nasogastric intubation (14.4%), a longer stay in the acute ward (5.9%) and concomitant coronary disease (1.3%). The final multivariable Cox model identified 4 factors that independently account for 52% of the outcome variability (R2 = 0.52). The disability extent and the disability recovered lead the long-term mortality since they account for the 53% of the global R2. The relevant effect of age (42%) is appreciable only after 2 years given the significant interaction with time. A longer stay in the acute ward explains the remaining fraction (5%). Considering ‘cost and benefits’, the decision curve analysis shows that the clinical benefit achieved by using both prognostic models is greater than the other possible action strategies, namely ‘treat all’ and ‘treat none. Several less obvious characteristics of the prognostic models are appreciated by integrating the results of multiple analytical methods. Conclusion: The comprehensive analytical tool aimed to integrate statistical significance, weight, “stability” and clinical “net” benefit, gives back a prognostic framework explaining a relevant portion of both outcomes’ variability in which the strong association of the disability status with both outcomes is comparable to and followed by a time modulated role of age. Our data do not support a differentiated association of traumatic vs non-traumatic etiology. The results encourage the use of integrated approach to analyze cohort data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying patterns of deforestation and linking these patterns to potentially influencing variables is a key component of modelling and projecting land use change. Statistical methods based on null hypothesis testing are only partially successful for interpreting deforestation in the context of the processes that have led to their formation. Simplifications of cause-consequence relationships that are difficult to support empirically may influence environment and development policies because they suggest simple solutions to complex problems. Deforestation is a complex process driven by multiple proximate and underlying factors and a range of scales. In this study we use a multivariate statistical analysis to provide contextual explanation for deforestation in the Usumacinta River Basin based on partial pattern matching. Our approach avoided testing trivial null hypotheses of lack of association and investigated the strength and form of the response to drivers. As not all factors involved in deforestation are easily mapped as GIS layers, analytical challenges arise due to lack of a one to one correspondence between mappable attributes and drivers. We avoided testing simple statistical hypotheses such as the detectability of a significant linear relationship between deforestation and proximity to roads or water. We developed a series of informative generalised additive models based on combinations of layers that corresponded to hypotheses regarding processes. The importance of the variables representing accessibility was emphasised by the analysis. We provide evidence that land tenure is a critical factor in shaping the decision to deforest and that direct beam insolation has an effect associated with fire frequency and intensity. The effect of winter insolation was found to have many applied implications for land management. The methodology was useful for interpreting the relative importance of sets of variables representing drivers of deforestation. It was an informative approach, thus allowing the construction of a comprehensive understanding of its causes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scapsipedus icipe Hugel and Tanga (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) is a newly described edible cricket species. Although, there is substantial interest in mass production of S. icipe for human food and animal feed, no information exists on the impact of temperature on their bionomics. Temperature-dependent development, survival, reproductive and life table parameters of S. icipe was generated and integrated into advanced Insect Life Cycle Modeling software to describe relative S. icipe population increase and spatial spread based on nine constant temperature conditions. We examined model predictions and implications for S. icipe potential distribution in Africa under current and future climate. These regions where entomophagy is widely practiced have distinctly different climates. Our results showed that S. icipe eggs were unable to hatch at 10 and 40°C, while emerged nymphs failed to complete development at 15°C. The developmental time of S. icipe was observed to decrease with increased in temperature. The lowest developmental threshold temperatures estimated using linear regressions was 14.3, 12.67 and 19.12°C and the thermal constants for development were 185.2, 1111.1- and 40.7-degree days (DD) for egg, nymph and pre-adult stages, respectively. The highest total fecundity (3416 individuals/female/generation), intrinsic rate of natural increase (0.075 days), net reproductive rate (1330.8 female/female/generation) and shortest doubling time (9.2 days) was recorded at 30°C. The regions predicted to be suitable by the model suggest that S. icipe is tolerant to a wider range of climatic conditions. Our findings provide for the first-time important information on the impact of temperature on the biology, establishment and spread of S. icipe across the Africa continent. The prospect of edible S. icipe production to become a new sector in food and feed industry is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To analyze and compare the performance of the Simplified-Acute-Physiology-Score (SAPS) 2 and SAPS 3 among intermediate care patients with internal disorders. Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective single-center analysis in patients (n = 305) admitted to an intermediate-care-unit (ImCU) for internal medicine at the University Hospital Essen, Germany. We employed and compared the SAPS 2 vs. the SAPS 3 scoring system for the assessment of disease severity and prediction of mortality rates among patients admitted to the ImCU within an 18-month period. Both scores, which utilize parameters recorded at admission to the intensive-care-unit (ICU), represent the most widely applied scoring systems in European intensive care medicine. The area-under-the-receiver-operating-characteristic-curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the SAPS 2 and SAPS 3 discrimination performance. Ultimately, standardized-mortality-ratios (SMRs) were calculated alongside their respective 95%-confidence-intervals (95% CI) in order to determine the observed-to-expected death ratio and calibration belt plots were generated to evaluate the SAPS 2 and SAPS 3 calibration performance. Results: Both scores provided acceptable discrimination performance, i.e., the AUROC was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65–0.77) for SAPS 2 and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.72–0.82) for SAPS 3. Against the observed in-hospital mortality of 30.2%, SAPS 2 showed a weak performance with a predicted mortality of 17.4% and a SMR of 1.74 (95% CI, 1.38–2.09), especially in association with liver diseases and/or sepsis. SAPS 3 performed accurately, resulting in a predicted mortality of 29.9% and a SMR of 1.01 (95% CI, 0.8–1.21). Based on Calibration belt plots, SAPS 2 showed a poor calibration-performance especially in patients with low mortality risk (P<0.001), while SAPS 3 exhibited a highly accurate calibration performance (P = 0.906) across all risk levels. Conclusions: In our study, the SAPS 3 exhibited high accuracy in prediction of mortality in ImCU patients with internal disorders. In contrast, the SAPS 2 underestimated mortality particularly in patients with liver diseases and sepsis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attempts to assess behavioral responses of prey to predation risk are often confounded by depredation of prey. Moreover, the scale at which the response of prey is assessed has important implications for discovering how predation risk alters prey behavior. Herein, we assessed space use of wild Ring-necked Pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) in response to spatial and temporal variation in recreational hunting. We radio-marked pheasants and monitored space use at two spatial scales: short-term seasonal home range, and nightly resting locations. Additionally, we considered temporal variation in predation risk by monitoring space use prior to and during the pheasant hunting season. Although we found no change in nightly resting location, pheasants subjected to predation risk expanded their home range and shifted home range location even when invulnerable to predation. Home range formation was plastic, with home ranges expanding and contracting as risk fluctuated before and during the hunting season. Depredation reduced the measured response within the population, obscuring the potential importance of perceived predation risk in shaping prey communities, particularly when not measured at the appropriate scale. By assessing space use of a wild prey population at multiple scales, considering spatial and temporal variation in predation risk, we show that not only does predation risk affect space use, but that the effects at the population level may be challenging to assess when not measured at the appropriate ecological scale because of the direct effects of differential mortality on the same behaviors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Gastroenteritis (GE) and respiratory tract infection (RTI) outbreaks are a significant issue in nursing homes. This study aimed to describe GE and RTI outbreaks with infection and all-cause lethality rates according to the individual characteristics of nursing home residents. Methods: Clinical and virological surveillance were conducted (2007 to 2018). Virus stratifications for the analysis were: outbreaks with positive norovirus or influenza identifications (respectively NoV+ or Flu+), episodes with no NoV or influenza identification or testing (respectively NoV- or Flu-). Associations between individual variables (sex, age, length of stay (LOS), autonomy status) and infection and lethality rates were tested with univariate and Mantel-Haenszel (MH) methods. Results: 61 GE outbreaks and 76 RTI oubreaks (total 137 outbreaks) were recorded involving respectively 4309 and 5862 residents. In univariate analysis, higher infection rates and age were associated in NoV+, NoV-, and Flu+ contexts, and lower infection rates were associated with longer stays (NoV+ and NoV-). In MH stratified analysis (virus, sex (female/male)) adjusted for LOS (<4 or ≥4 years), the odds of being infected remained significant among older residents (≥86 years): NoV+/male (Odds ratio (ORMH): 1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16–2.30) and Flu+/female and male (respectively ORMH: 1.50, CI: 1.27–1.79 and 1.73, CI: 1.28–2.33). In univariate analysis, lower autonomy status (NoV+, Flu+ and Flu-) and increased age (Flu+) were associated with higher lethality. In MH adjusted analysis, significant ORage adjusted for autonomy was: Flu+/ ≥86 years compared with <86 years, 1.97 (1.19–3.25) and ORautonomy adjusted for age for the more autonomous group (compared with the less autonomous group) was: Flu+, 0.41 (0.24–0.69); Flu-, 0.42 (0.20, 0.90). Conclusion: The residents of nursing homes are increasingly elderly and dependent. The specific infection and lethality risks according to these two factors indicate that surveillance and infection control measures are essential and of high priority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an option for treatment for patients with severe aortic stenosis who are at high risk for death with surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR). It is unknown whether TAVI can be safely introduced to intermediate- and low-risk patients. Objective: To compare the efficacy and safety of TAVI and SAVR in patients with intermediate- and low-surgical risk. Data sources: Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched from inception to April 15, 2019. Study selection: We included randomized controlled trials comparing TAVI with SAVR in patients with intermediate- and low-surgical risk. Data extraction: Meta-analyses were conducted using random-effects models to calculate risk ratios (RR) with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Two independent reviewers completed citation screening, data abstraction, and risk assessment. Primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke at 12 months. Data Synthesis: A total of 5 trials randomizing 6390 patients were included. In patients with low risk, TAVI was associated with a significant reduction in the composite of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke compared with SAVR (RR, 0.56; 95%CI, 0.40–0.79; I2 = 0%). This benefit was not replicated in patients with intermediate risk (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.80–1.15; I2 = 0%). Similar results were seen separately in all-cause mortality and disabling stroke when TAVI was compared with SAVR. Conclusion: For patients with severe aortic stenosis who were at low risk for death from surgery, TAVI achieved superior clinical outcomes compared to SAVR; however, these benefits were not seen in those with intermediate risk. This information may inform discussions about deciding between SAVR and TAVI for patients with low to intermediate risk separately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) disease reactivates from distant latent infection or recent (re)infection. Progression risks increase with age. Across the World Health Organisation Western Pacific region, many populations are ageing and have the highest per capita TB incidence rates in older age groups. However, methods for analysing age-specific TB incidence and forecasting epidemic trends while accounting for demographic change remain limited. Methods: We applied the Lee-Carter models, which were originally developed for mortality modelling, to model the temporal trends in age-specific TB incidence data from 2005 to 2018 in Taiwan. Females and males were modelled separately. We combined our demographic forecasts, and age-specific TB incidence forecasts to project TB incidence until 2035. We compared TB incidence projections with demography fixed in 2018 to projections accounting for demographic change. Results: Our models quantified increasing incidence rates with age and declining temporal trends. By 2035, the forecast suggests that the TB incidence rate in Taiwan will decrease by 54% (95% Prediction Interval (PI): 45%-59%) compared to 2015, while most age-specific incidence rates will reduce by more than 60%. In 2035, adults aged 65 and above will make up 78% of incident TB cases. Forecast TB incidence in 2035 accounting for demographic change will be 39% (95% PI: 36%-42%) higher than without population ageing. Conclusions: Age-specific incidence forecasts coupled with demographic forecasts can inform the impact of population ageing on TB epidemics. The TB control programme in Taiwan should develop plans specific to older age groups and their care needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The precise age distribution and calculated stroke risk of screen-detected atrial fibrillation (AF) is not known. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the number needed to screen (NNS) to identify one treatable new AF case (NNS-Rx) (i.e., Class-1 oral anticoagulation [OAC] treatment recommendation) in each age stratum. If the NNS-Rx is known for each age stratum, precise cost-effectiveness and sensitivity simulations can be performed based on the age distribution of the population/region to be screened. Such calculations are required by national authorities and organisations responsible for health system budgets to determine the best age cutoffs for screening programs and decide whether programs of screening should be funded. Therefore, we aimed to determine the exact yield and calculated stroke-risk profile of screen-detected AF and NNS-Rx in 5-year age strata.Methods and Findings: A systematic review of Medline, Pubmed, and Embase was performed (January 2007 to February 2018), and AF-SCREEN international collaboration members were contacted to identify additional studies. Twenty-four eligible studies were identified that performed a single time point screen for AF in a general ambulant population, including people ≥65 years. Authors from eligible studies were invited to collaborate and share patient-level data. Statistical analysis was performed using random effects logistic regression for AF detection rate, and Poisson regression modelling for CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Nineteen studies (14 countries from a mix of low- to middle- and high-income countries) collaborated, with 141,220 participants screened and 1,539 new AF cases. Pooled yield of screening was greater in males across all age strata. The age/sex-adjusted detection rate for screen-detected AF in ≥65-year-olds was 1.44% (95% CI, 1.13%-1.82%) and 0.41% (95% CI, 0.31%-0.53%) for <65-year-olds. New AF detection rate increased progressively with age from 0.34% (<60 years) to 2.73% (≥85 years). Neither the choice of screening methodology or device, the geographical region, nor the screening setting influenced the detection rate of AF. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc scores (n = 1,369) increased with age from 1.1 (<60 years) to 3.9 (≥85 years); 72% of ≥65 years had ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. All new AF ≥75 years and 66% between 65 and 74 years had a Class-1 OAC recommendation. The NNS-Rx is 83 for ≥65 years, 926 for 60-64 years; and 1,089 for <60 years. The main limitation of this study is there are insufficient data on sociodemographic variables of the populations and possible ascertainment biases to explain the variance in the samples.Conclusions: People with screen-detected AF are at elevated calculated stroke risk: above age 65, the majority have a Class-1 OAC recommendation for stroke prevention, and >70% have ≥1 additional stroke risk factor other than age/sex. Our data, based on the largest number of screen-detected AF collected to date, show the precise relationship between yield and estimated stroke risk profile with age, and strong dependence for NNS-RX on the age distribution of the population to be screened: essential information for precise cost-effectiveness calculations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: The widespread emergence of resistance to insecticides used to control adult Aedes mosquitoes has made traditional control strategies inadequate for the reduction of various vector populations. Therefore, complementary vector control methods, such as the Sterile Insect Technique, are needed to enhance existing efforts. The technique relies on the rearing and release of large numbers of sterile males, and the development of efficient and standardized mass-rearing procedures and tools is essential for its application against medically important mosquitoes. Methods: In the effort to reduce the cost of the rearing process, a prototype low-cost plexiglass mass-rearing cage has been developed and tested for egg production and egg hatch rate in comparison to the current Food and Agriculture Organization/International Atomic Energy Agency (FAO/IAEA) stainless-steel cage. Additionally, an adult-index was validated and used as a proxy to estimate the mosquito survival rates by counting the number of male and female mosquitoes that were resting within each of the 6 squares at a given point of time each day in the cage. Results: The study has shown that the prototype mass-rearing cage is cheap and is as efficient as the FAO/IAEA stainless-steel cage in terms of egg production, with even better overall egg hatch rate. The mean numbers of eggs per cage, after seven cycles of blood feeding and egg collection, were 969,789 ± 138,101 and 779,970 ± 123,042, corresponding to 81 ± 11 and 65 ± 10 eggs per female over her lifespan, in the prototype and the stainless-steel-mass-rearing cages, respectively. The longevity of adult male and female mosquitoes was not affected by cage type and, the adult-index could be considered as an appropriate proxy for survival. Moreover, the mass-rearing cage prototype is easy to handle and transport and improves economic and logistic efficiency. Conclusion: The low-cost mass-rearing prototype cage can be recommended to produce Ae. aegypti in the context of rear and release techniques. The proposed adult-index can be used as a quick proxy of mosquito survival rates in mass-rearing settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The true spatiotemporal structure of a fish population is often more complex than represented in assessments because movement between spawning components is disregarded and data at the necessary scale are unavailable. This can generate poor advice. We explore the impacts of modelling choices and their associated risks given limited data and lack of biological knowledge on spawning component structure and connectivity. Pseudo-data for an age structured fish population were simulated with two spawning components that experience various levels of connectivity and that might overlap during a certain period but segregate during reproduction. A variety of implicit spatiotemporal and simpler models were fitted to the pseudo-datasets, mimicking different situations of data availability. To reproduce the true stock characteristics, the spatiotemporal models required total catch data disaggregated by spawning component; however, catch-at-age was not as important nor were disaggregated biomass indices to reproduce true dynamics. Even with just 5% connectivity between spawning components, both the spatiotemporal models and simpler alternatives generally overestimated stock biomass. Although bias was smallest when considering one unit population, spawning components might still need to be considered for management and conservation. In such case, the spatiotemporal model was less influenced by ignored connectivity patterns compared to a model focussing on one spawning component only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seoul hantavirus (SEOV) has recently raised concern by causing geographic range expansion of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). SEOV infections in humans are significantly underestimated worldwide and epidemic dynamics of SEOV-related HFRS are poorly understood because of a lack of field data and empirically validated models. Here, we use mathematical models to examine both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of disease transmission from animal (the Norway rat) to humans in a SEOV-endemic area in China. We found that rat eradication schemes and vaccination campaigns, but below the local elimination threshold, could diminish the amplitude of the HFRS epidemic but did not modify its seasonality. Models demonstrate population dynamics of the rodent host were insensitive to climate variations in urban settings, while relative humidity had a negative effect on the seasonality in transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of SEOV-related HFRS, demonstrates asynchronies between rodent population dynamics and transmission rate, and identifies potential drivers of the SEOV seasonality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute kidney injury in hospital patients is common and associated with reduced survival and higher healthcare costs. The Tackling Acute Kidney Injury (TAKI) quality improvement project aimed to reduce mortality rates in patients with acute kidney injury by implementing a multicomponent intervention comprising of an electronic alert, care bundle and education in five UK hospitals across a variety of wards. A parallel developmental evaluation using a case study approach was conducted to provide the implementation teams with insights into factors that might impact intervention implementation and fidelity. The qualitative element of the evaluation will be reported. Methods: 29 semi-structured interviews with implementation teams across the five hospitals were carried out to identify perceived barriers and enablers to implementation. Interviews were taped and transcribed verbatim and Framework analysis was conducted. Results: Interviews generated four ‘barriers and enablers’ to implementation themes: i) practical/contextual factors, ii) skills and make-up of the TAKI implementation team, iii) design, development and implementation approach, iv) staff knowledge, attitudes, behaviours and support. Enablers included availability of specialist teams (e.g. educational teams), multi-disciplinary implementation teams with strong leadership, team-based package completion and proactive staff. Barriers were frequently the converse of facilitators. Conclusions: Despite diversity of sites, a range of common local factors–contextual, intervention-based and individual–were identified as potential barriers and enablers to fidelity, including intervention structure/design and process of/approach to implementation. Future efforts should focus on early identification and management of barriers and tailored optimisation of known enablers such as leadership and multidisciplinary teams to encourage buy-in. Improved measures of real-time intervention and implementation fidelity would further assist local teams to target their support during such quality improvement initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Ovarian cancer is often diagnosed in advanced stages, when survival is poor. Treatment advances have been made, but are inconsistently implemented. Our purpose was to project the maximum life expectancy gains that could be achieved in women with stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer if the implementation of available chemotherapy regimens could be optimized. Methods: We used a microsimulation model to estimate life expectancy benefits associated with “optimized” implementation of four post-operative chemotherapy options: standard intravenous chemotherapy; intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy; bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy; and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy + intravenous chemotherapy. Optimized implementation was defined as follows. Patients triaged to primary cytoreductive surgery received intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Patients triaged to neoadjuvant chemotherapy received hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy at interval cytoreductive surgery if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and standard IV chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Life expectancy associated with optimized implementation was compared with that of current utilization practices, estimated using published literature and the National Cancer Database. Effects of model uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analyses. Results: Life expectancy associated with optimized implementation vs. current practice was 76.7 vs. 64.5 months (life expectancy gain = 12.2 months). Providing intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy to all eligible patients was the largest driver of life expectancy gains, due to both the potential benefit conferred by intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy and the proportion of eligible women who do not receive intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy in current practice. Conclusion: Population-level life expectancy in stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer could be substantially improved through greater uptake of available chemotherapy regimens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of earthworm species in crop fields is as old as agriculture itself. The earthworms Pontoscolex corethrurus (invasive) and Balanteodrilus pearsei (native) are associated with the emergence of agriculture and sedentism in the region Amazon and Maya, respectively. Both species have shifted their preference from their natural habitat to the cropland niche. They contrast in terms of intensification of agricultural land use (anthropic impact to the symbiotic soil microbiome). P. corethrurus inhabits conventional agroecosystems, while B. pearsei thrives in traditional agroecosystems, i.e., P. corethrurus has not yet been recorded in soils where B. pearsei dwells. The demographic behavior of these two earthworm species was assessed in the laboratory over 100 days, according to their origin (OE; P. corethrurus and B. pearsei) food quality (FQ; soil only, maize stubble, Mucuna pruriens), and soil moisture (SM; 25, 33, 42%). The results showed that OE, FQ, SM, and the OE x FQ interaction were highly significant for the survival, growth, and reproduction of earthworms. P. corethrurus showed a lower survival rate (> mortality). P. corethrurus survivors fed a diet of low-to-intermediate nutritional quality (soil and stubble maize, respectively) showed a greater capacity to grow and reproduce; however, it was surpassed by the native earthworm when fed a high-quality diet (M. pruriens). Besides, P. corethrurus displayed a low cocoon hatching (emergence of juveniles). These results suggest that the presence of the invasive species was associated with a negative interaction with the soil microbiota where the native species dwells, and with the absence of natural mutualistic bacteria (gut, nephridia, and cocoons). These results are consistent with the absence of P. corethrurus in milpa and pasture-type agricultural niches managed by peasants (agroecologists) to grow food regularly through biological soil management. Results reported here suggest that P. corethrurus is an invasive species that is neither wild nor domesticated, that is, its eco-evolutionary phylogeny needs to be derived based on its symbionts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The inverse association between mortality and individual socioeconomic status is well-documented. Due to the lack of appropriate data, little is known about the nature of this association among individuals with long-term care (LTC) needs. Objectives: We aim to fill in this knowledge gap by estimating life expectancy (LE), life expectancy without (CFLE) and with (CLE) long-term care by education for older German men; and by assessing the trends in the education-LE/CFLE/CLE gradient over time. Data and methods: We apply survival analysis and Gompertz regression to German Socioeconomic Panel data (1997–2012) to estimate the mortality levels and to construct the life tables for three educational categories. Using the administrative data from the health insurance, we adjust mortality rates upward to account for the institutionalized population. We estimate age-specific LTC prevalence from the German Microcensus data (2004, 2012) and compute life expectancy with and without LTC by employing Sullivan’s method. Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality are computed to evaluate the magnitude of educational inequalities in CFLE. Results: There is a clear and growing educational gradient in LE and CFLE among older men in Germany. In 2004, LE at age 65 among men with low education was 14.2 years, or 3.3 years lower than among highly educated individuals. The CFLE of these two educational categories ranged from 13.6 to almost 17 years. The gradient increased over time and in 2012 the difference constituted 4.6 years. The gaps between educational groups were not pronounced for CLE. The declining health ratio of years without LTC to remaining LE suggests the expansion of LTC needs, irrespective of the educational level. Conclusions: Growing inequalities by educational status among older German men with care needs demand the attention of policy-makers. Prompt actions are needed to increase the survival chances of the most vulnerable groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lactate is used to evaluate the prognosis of adult patients with trauma. However, the prognostic significance of admission serum lactate in the setting of pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) is still unclear. We aim to investigate the impact of admission lactate on the outcome in children with moderate to severe TBI. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted in a tertiary pediatric hospital between May 2012 and Jun 2018 included children with an admission Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) of ≤13. Two hundred and thirteen patients were included in the analysis and 45 patients died in hospital. Results: Admission lactate and glucose were significantly higher in non-survivors than those in survivors (P < 0.05). Admission lactate was positively correlated with admission glucose and negatively correlated with GCS in all patients (n = 213), subgroup of isolated TBI (n = 112) and subgroup of GCS ≤ 8 (n = 133), respectively. AUCs of lactate could significantly predict the mortality and were higher than those of glucose in all patients, subgroup of isolated TBI and subgroup of GCS ≤ 8, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression showed that admission lactate (Adjusted OR = 1.189; 95% CI: 1.002–1.410; P = 0.047) was independently associated with mortality, while admission glucose (Adjusted OR = 1.077; 95% CI: 0.978–1.186; P = 0.133) wasn’t an independent risk factor of death. Elevated admission lactate (> 2 mmol/L) was associated with death, reduced 14-day ventilation-free days, 14-day ICU-free days and 28-day hospital-free days. Conclusions: Admission serum lactate can effectively predict the mortality of children with moderate to severe TBI. Elevated admission lactate is associated with death, reduced ventilator-free, ICU-free, and hospital-free days. Admission serum lactate could be used as a prognostic biomarker of mortality in children with moderate to severe TBI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with substantial cardiovascular morbidity. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a prevalent arrhythmia that increases the risk of both stroke and cardiovascular mortality. Information about the mortality risk among patients with advanced CKD and new-onset AF (NAF) in the presence and absence of dialysis is important. However, the association between advanced CKD and NAF in patients with and without dialysis is unclear. Objective: To investigate long-term outcomes of the association between advanced CKD and NAF in patients with and without dialysis. Methods: We conducted a nested case-control study based on the National Health Insurance Program in Taiwan. Each participant aged 20 years and older who had CKD with dialysis from 2000 to 2013 was assigned to the dialysis group, whereas sex-, age-, CKD duration-, and index date-matched participants without dialysis were randomly selected and assigned to the non-dialysis group. We used the Cox regression model to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) with the 95% confidence interval (CI) for mortality in CKD patients with combined dialysis and NAF. Patients with neither NAF nor dialysis served as the reference group. Results: We identified 3,673 dialysis cases and 7,346 Non-dialysis matched controls for enrolment in the study. The crude mortality rates were 3.3 (95% CI: 3.1–3.5), 10.98 (95% CI: 9.3–13.0), 9.2 (95% CI: 8.7–10.0), and 18.0 (95% CI: 15.4–21.2) in the [Non-dialysis, non-NAF], [Non-dialysis, NAF], [Dialysis, non-NAF], and [Dialysis, NAF] groups, respectively. After adjustment for age, gender, and co-morbidities, the aHRs were 2.0 (95% CI: 1.7–2.3), 2.7 (95% CI: 2.5–2.9), and 3.5 (95% CI: 2.9–4.1) in the [Non-Dialysis, NAF], [Dialysis, non-NAF], and [Dialysis, NAF] groups compared with the [Non-Dialysis, non-NAF] group, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed the highest mortality risk in the [Dialysis, NAF] group among the study groups. Patients with concurrent peritoneal dialysis and AF had the highest mortality risk: aHR = 4.3 (95% CI: 2.3–8.0). However, there was a relatively lower effect of NAF on mortality in patients on dialysis than in patients who were not. Conclusions: Patients with advanced CKD and NAF had a significantly increased risk of mortality. Dialysis is not risky for patients with concurrent CKD and NAF. Dialysis offers a sufficient survival benefit to be considered as a standard treatment, as indicated by the superior physical status of patients on dialysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differential Evolution (DE) is powerful for global optimization problems. Among DE algorithms, JADE and its variants, whose mutation strategy is DE/current-to-pbest/1 with optional archive, have good performance. A significant feature of the above mutation strategy is that one individual for difference operation comes from the union of the optional external archive and the population. In existing DE algorithms based on the mutation strategy—JADE and its variants, individuals eliminated from the population are send to the archive. In this paper, we propose a scheme for managing the optional external archive. According to our scheme, two subpopulations are maintained in the population. Each of them regards the other as the archive. In experiments, our scheme is applied in JADE and two of its variants—SHADE and L-SHADE. Experimental results show that our scheme can enhance JADE and its variants. Moreover, it can be seen that L-SHADE with our scheme performs significantly better than four DE algorithms, CoBiDE, MPEDE, EDEV, and MLCCDE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maternal, fetal, and neonatal health outcomes are interdependent. Designing public health strategies that link fetal and neonatal outcomes with maternal outcomes is necessary in order to successfully reduce perinatal and neonatal mortality, particularly in low- and middle- income countries. However, to date, there has been no standardized method for documenting, reporting, and reviewing facility-based stillbirths and neonatal deaths that links to maternal health outcomes would enable a more comprehensive understanding of the burden and determinants of poor fetal and neonatal outcomes. We developed and pilot-tested an adapted RAPID tool, Perinatal-Neonatal Rapid Ascertainment Process for Institutional Deaths (PN RAPID), to systematically identify and quantify facility-based stillbirths and neonatal deaths and link them to maternal health factors in two countries: Liberia and Nepal. This study found an absence of stillbirth timing documented in records, a high proportion of neonatal deaths occurring within the first 24 hours, and an absence of documentation of pregnancy-related and maternal factors that might be associated with fetal and neonatal outcomes. The use of an adapted RAPID methodology and tools was limited by these data gaps, highlighting the need for concurrent strengthening of death documentation through training and standardized record templates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]