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The advent of a continuously updated Master Area File (MAF) following the 2000 census represents an information resource that can be tapped for purposes of developing timely, cost-effective, and precise population estimates for even the smallest of geographical units (e.g., census blocks). We argue that the MAF can be enhanced (EMAF) for these purposes. In support of our argument we describe a set of activities needed to develop EMAF, each of which is well within the current capabilities of the U.S. Census Bureau and discuss various costs and benefits of each. We also describe how EMAF would provide population estimates containing a wide range of demographic (e.g., age, race, and sex) and socio-economic characteristics (e.g., educational attainment, income, and employment). As such, it could largely negate and eliminate the need for many of the traditional demographic methods of population estimation and possibly reduce the number of sample surveys. We identify important challenges that must be surmounted in order to realize EMAF and make suggestions for doing so. We conclude by noting that the idea of the EMAF could be of interest to other countries with MAF files and strong administrative records systems that, like the United States, are facing the challenge of producing good population information in the face of increasing census costs.

International migration impacts origin regions in many ways. As examples, remittances from distant migrants may alter consumption patterns within sending communities, while exposure to different cultural norms may alter other behaviors. This paper combines these insights to offer a unique lens on migration’s environmental impact. From an environmental perspective, we ask the following question: is the likely rise in consumption brought about by remittances counterbalanced by a reduction in fertility in migrant households following exposure to lower fertility cultures? Based on ethnographic case studies in two western highland Guatemalan communities, we argue that the near-term rise in consumption due to remittances is not counterbalanced by rapid decline in migrant household fertility. However, over time, the environmental cost of consumption may be mitigated at the community level through diffusion of contraception and family planning norms yielding lower family size.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funded seven states, including Kentucky, to clarify statewide death certification practices in sudden, unexpected infant death and compare state performances with national expectations. Accurate assignment of the cause and manner of death in cases of sudden, unexpected infant death is critical for accurate vital statistics data to direct limited resources to appropriate targets, and to implement optimal and safe risk reduction strategies. The primary objectives are to (1) Compare SUID death certifications recommended by the KY medical examiners with the stated cause of death text field on the hard copy death electronic death certificates and (2) Compare KY and national SUID rates. Causes of death for SUID cases recommended by the medical examiners and those appearing on the hard copy and electronic death certificates in KY were collected retrospectively for 2004 and 2005. Medical examiner recommendations were based upon a classification scheme devised by them in 2003. Coroners hard copy death certificates and the cause of death rates in KY were compared to those occurring nationally. Eleven percent of infants dying suddenly and unexpectedly did not undergo autopsy during the study interval. The KY 2003 classification scheme for SIDS is at variance with the NICHD and San Diego SIDS definitions. Significant differences in causes of death recommended by medical examiners and those appearing on the hard copy and electronic death certificates were identified. SIDS rates increased in KY in contrast to decreasing rates nationally. Nationwide adoption of a widely used SIDS definition, such as that proposed in San Diego in 2004 as well as legislation by states to ensure autopsy in all cases of sudden unexpected infant death are recommended. Medical examiners’ recommendations for cause of death should appear on death certificates. Multidisciplinary pediatric death review teams prospectively evaluating cases before death certification is recommended. Research into other jurisdictions death certification process is encouraged.

The prevalence of childhood overweight is high in Mexican immigrant communities in the United States. Understanding mother’s perceptions of child weight in immigrants’ country of origin may help to understand this high prevalence. The goal of this study was to examine and compare mothers’ perception of weight in Mexico (MX) and in an immigrant community in California (CA). We assessed perceptions of child weight using a pictorial scale with 314 mothers of 5-year-old children in MX and 60 mothers of 5 year-old-children in CA. We compared maternal reports with children’s objectively measured weight. Using chi-square and Analysis of Variance, we investigated associations of maternal perception of and satisfaction with weight according to socio-demographic characteristics. Mothers were more likely to underestimate their children’s weight in CA than in MX. On average, CA mothers wanted their children to be smaller than they currently were and mothers in MX wanted their children to be bigger than they currently were. This differed by weight status in CA with mothers of normal weight and at-risk-for-overweight children wanting them to be bigger and mothers of overweight children wanting them to be smaller. In order for programs to be effective, mothers must be able to recognize their children as overweight and want to address it. Because underestimation of weight and a desire for a larger size is common in this population, programs to address overweight may be more effective if they focus on alternative benefits of weight control strategies, such as healthy child development.

To assess the prevalence of intimate partner violence (IPV) and associations with health care-seeking patterns among female patients of adolescent clinics, and to examine screening for IPV and IPV disclosure patterns within these clinics. A self-administered, anonymous, computerized survey was administered to female clients ages 14–20 years (N = 448) seeking care in five urban adolescent clinics, inquiring about IPV history, reasons for seeking care, and IPV screening by and IPV disclosure to providers. Two in five (40%) female urban adolescent clinic patients had experienced IPV, with 32% reporting physical and 21% reporting sexual victimization. Among IPV survivors, 45% reported abuse in their current or most recent relationship. IPV prevalence was equally high among those visiting clinics for reproductive health concerns as among those seeking care for other reasons. IPV victimization was associated with both poor current health status (AOR 1.57, 95% CI 1.03–2.40) and having foregone care in the past year (AOR 2.59, 95% CI 1.20–5.58). Recent IPV victimization was associated only with past 12 month foregone care (AOR 2.02, 95% CI 1.18–3.46). A minority (30%) reported ever being screened for IPV in a clinical setting. IPV victimization is pervasive among female adolescent clinic attendees regardless of visit type, yet IPV screening by providers appears low. Patients reporting poor health status and foregone care are more likely to have experienced IPV. IPV screening and interventions tailored for female patients of adolescent clinics are needed.

Despite the historical prevalence of single motherhood in Latin America and its rise in recent years, there is limited knowledge on the magnitude and consequences of father absence as experienced by children. Using a nationally representative sample from the 2002 Guatemalan Reproductive Health Survey, this study provides unprecedented documentation on the national prevalence of children’s separate living arrangements from their biological fathers and nonresident fathers’ paternity establishment and child support payments. Using random-intercept models, this study further demonstrates that father absence has a negative effect on the school enrollment of indigenous children of both sexes and Ladino male children. Increased poverty in father-absent households explains a smaller proportion of this adverse effect on indigenous children, suggesting that their fathers, when present, play a stronger social, rather than economic, role compared to their Ladino counterparts. Finally, child support payments attenuate the negative effects of father absence, particularly among Ladino male children.

The objectives of this study are to characterize methamphetamine (MA) usage patterns during pregnancy, examine whether patterns of MA use are associated with sociodemographic characteristics and prenatal care, and test the hypothesis that persistent or increasing MA use during pregnancy is associated with greater use of other illicit drugs. The sample consisted of 191 MA-using mothers who participated in a large-scale multi-site study of prenatal MA exposure. Patterns of substance use were assessed by maternal self-report via the Substance Use Inventory (SUI), which included detailed information about MA use, including frequency, quantity, and maximum use during each trimester of pregnancy. The study demostrated that on average, the prevalence of MA use decreased over the three trimesters of pregnancy (84.3% vs. 56.0% vs. 42.4%), and decreased frequency was observed among users from the first trimester to the third (3.1 vs. 2.4 vs. 1.5 days/week). Closer examination of the individual patterns revealed that 29.3% of women maintained consistently high frequency, 9.4% increased frequency, 25.7% had a stable low/moderate pattern, and 35.6% decreased their frequency of MA over the course of pregnancy. These four groups did not differ in sociodemographic characteristics; women who decreased their use of MA had significantly more prenatal visits compared to the consistently high-use group, but were the most likely to use alcohol during their pregnancy. In conclusion, this article elucidated the different patterns of MA use in this community sample. Approximately, one third of MA-using mothers could be classified as consistently high users with a profile of use with the greatest risk to themselves and potentially to their infants including high levels of MA use throughout pregnancy and fewer prenatal care visits. Overall, we found that MA use declined across pregnancy; however, a substantial proportion of users had consistently high or increasing MA use, while those who decreased their MA frequency had a higher prevalence of polydrug use. Future research will investigate the association of these patterns with neonatal outcomes.

This study sought to examine the shape and magnitude of family income gradients in US children’s health, access to care, and use of services. We analyzed cross-sectional data from the 2003 National Survey of Children’s Health, a telephone survey of 102,353 parents of children aged 0–17 years. Associations between family income [Below 100% Federal Poverty Level (FPL), 100–199% FPL, 200–299% FPL, 300–399% FPL, 400% FPL or Greater] and a set of 32 health and health care indicators were examined using linear polynomial testing and multivariate logistic regression. The percentage of children in better health increased with family income for 15 health outcomes. In multivariate logistic regression models that controlled for health insurance coverage and socio-demographic confounders, odds ratios >2 comparing the lowest to the highest income groups were noted for health conditions across both physical and developmental domains (diabetes, headaches, ear infections, learning disabilities, behavior/conduct problems, speech problems). Parent-reported global child health status, activity limitation, and oral health status showed steeper gradients than specific chronic and acute conditions. Ten measures of health care access and utilization were associated with family income in multivariate logistic regression models. Income gradients are pervasive across many health indicators at an early age. Social and health policy interventions are needed to address the multitude of factors that can affect children’s health and initiate disparities in development.

Do low fertility and population aging lead to economic decline if couples have fewer children, but invest more in each child? By addressing this question, this article extends previous work in which the authors show that population aging leads to an increased demand for wealth that can, under some conditions, lead to increased capital per worker and higher per capita consumption. This article is based on an overlapping generations (OLG) model which highlights the quantity–quality tradeoff and the links between human capital investment and economic growth. It incorporates new national level estimates of human capital investment produced by the National Transfer Accounts project. Simulation analysis is employed to show that, even in the absence of the capital dilution effect, low fertility leads to higher per capita consumption through human capital accumulation, given plausible model parameters.

Objectives U.S. Latinas have a persistently high rate of teenage childbearing, which is associated with adverse outcomes for both mother and child. This study was designed to investigate the roles of socioeconomic factors and acculturation in teenage childbearing in this population. Methods Logistic regression was used to analyze the association of measures of acculturation (language spoken at home, nativity, and age at immigration) and respondents’ parents’ education with age at first birth in a stratified sample of post-partum women in California. Results The unadjusted odds ratio for teenage birth for Latinas versus non-Latina Whites was 5.2 (95% CI 4.1–6.6). Nativity was not significantly associated with teen birth, but speaking Spanish at home was positively associated and immigrating at a later age was negatively associated with teen birth. Overall, these measures of acculturation accounted for 17% (95% CI 8–28%) of the difference in odds of teen birth between Latinas and non-Latina Whites. Higher levels of education among respondents’ parents had differentially protective effects across the racial/ethnic groups. Controlling for disparities in respondents’ parents’ education without changing its differential effects across racial/ethnic groups reduced the odds ratio for Latinas compared to non-Latina Whites by 30% (95% CI 14–60%). Conclusion These findings call into question common assumptions about the protective effect of acculturation on teen fertility and suggest that improving childhood socioeconomic factors among Latinas may decrease teen childbearing.

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.

Small area population projections are useful in a range of business applications. This paper uses a case study to show how this type of task can be accomplished by using the Hamilton–Perry method, which is a variant of the cohort-component projection technique. We provide the documentation on the methods, data, and assumptions used to develop two sets of population projections for census tracts in Clark County, Nevada, and discuss specific factors needed to accomplish this task, including the need to bring expert judgment to bear on the task. Our experience suggests that the Hamilton–Perry Method is an important tool and we advise considering it for small forecasting needs in the private sector.

Many faculty members consider using case studies but not all end up using them. We provide a brief review of what cases are intended to do and identify three ways in which they can be used. We then use an example to illustrate how we have used the case study method in teaching business demography. Among other benefits, we note that the case studies method not only encourages the acquisition of skills by students, but can be used to promote “deep structure learning,” an approach naturally accommodates other features associated with the case studies method—the development of critical thinking skills, the use of real world problems, the emphasis of concepts over mechanics, writing and presentation skills, active cooperative learning and the “worthwhileness” of a course. As noted by others, we understand the limitations of the case study method. However, given its strengths, we believe it has a place in the instructional toolbox for courses in business demography. The fact that courses we teach is a testament to our perceived efficacy of this tool.

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two. In this article, we develop and test prediction intervals based on empirical analyses of past forecast errors for counties in the United States. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000, we apply trend extrapolation techniques to develop a set of county population forecasts; calculate forecast errors by comparing forecasts to subsequent census counts; and use the distribution of errors to construct empirical prediction intervals. We find that empirically-based prediction intervals provide reasonably accurate predictions of the precision of population forecasts, but provide little guidance regarding their tendency to be too high or too low. We believe the construction of empirically-based prediction intervals will help users of small-area population forecasts measure and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in population forecasts and plan more effectively for the future.

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The Journal of Population Economics is celebrating its 30th birthday. When the first issue was published, population economics was non-existent as a field. Hence, the aim has been to provide a high-quality outlet to publishing excellent theoretical and applied research in all areas of population economics. The article summarizes key developments in the Journal's editorial process, thematic orientation, international reach, and successes. Furthermore, we discuss the benefits of working papers in economics and investigate the impacts of the current working paper culture on journal citations. Finally, we try to identify the citation impacts in the Journal itself. The Journal of Population Economics has established itself as the leader in its field. Publishing in working papers and in the Journal seem to be complementary activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]