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Image animation has become a promising area in multimodal research, with a focus on generating videos from reference images. While prior work has largely emphasized generic video generation guided by text, music-driven dance video generation remains underexplored. In this paper, we introduce MuseDance, an innovative end-to-end model that animates reference images using both music and text inputs. This dual input enables MuseDance to generate personalized videos that follow text descriptions and synchronize character movements with the music. Unlike existing approaches, MuseDance eliminates the need for complex motion guidance inputs, such as pose or depth sequences, making flexible and creative video generation accessible to users of all expertise levels. To advance research in this field, we present a new multimodal dataset comprising 2,904 dance videos with corresponding background music and text descriptions. Our approach leverages diffusion-based methods to achieve robust generalization, precise control, and temporal consistency, setting a new baseline for the music-driven image animation task.

We incorporate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) quantity into a generalized class of Pickands estimators. By introducing CVaR, the newly developed estimators not only retain the desirable properties of consistency, location, and scale invariance inherent to Pickands estimators, but also achieve a reduction in mean squared error (MSE). To address the issue of sensitivity to the choice of the number of top order statistics used for the estimation, and ensure robust estimation, which are crucial in practice, we first propose a beta measure, which is a modified beta density function, to smooth the estimator. Then, we develop an algorithm to approximate the asymptotic mean squared error (AMSE) and determine the optimal beta measure that minimizes AMSE. A simulation study involving a wide range of distributions shows that our estimators have good and highly stable finite-sample performance and compare favorably with the other estimators.

Bilevel optimization methods are increasingly relevant within machine learning, especially for tasks such as hyperparameter optimization and meta-learning. Compared to the offline setting, online bilevel optimization (OBO) offers a more dynamic framework by accommodating time-varying functions and sequentially arriving data. This study addresses the online nonconvex-strongly convex bilevel optimization problem. In deterministic settings, we introduce a novel online Bregman bilevel optimizer (OBBO) that utilizes adaptive Bregman divergences. We demonstrate that OBBO enhances the known sublinear rates for bilevel local regret through a novel hypergradient error decomposition that adapts to the underlying geometry of the problem. In stochastic contexts, we introduce the first stochastic online bilevel optimizer (SOBBO), which employs a window averaging method for updating outer-level variables using a weighted average of recent stochastic approximations of hypergradients. This approach not only achieves sublinear rates of bilevel local regret but also serves as an effective variance reduction strategy, obviating the need for additional stochastic gradient samples at each timestep. Experiments on online hyperparameter optimization and online meta-learning highlight the superior performance, efficiency, and adaptability of our Bregman-based algorithms compared to established online and offline bilevel benchmarks.

The Pickands estimator for the extreme value index is beneficial due to its universal consistency, location, and scale invariance, which sets it apart from other types of estimators. However, similar to many extreme value index estimators, it is marked by poor asymptotic efficiency. Chen (2021) introduces a Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR)-based Pickands estimator, establishes its consistency, and demonstrates through simulations that this estimator significantly reduces mean squared error while preserving its location and scale invariance. The initial focus of this paper is on demonstrating the weak convergence of the empirical CVaR in functional space. Subsequently, based on the established weak convergence, the paper presents the asymptotic normality of the CVaR-based Pickands estimator. It further supports these theoretical findings with empirical evidence obtained through simulation studies.

We introduce a novel method that combines differential geometry, kernels smoothing, and spectral analysis to quantify facial muscle activity from widely accessible video recordings, such as those captured on personal smartphones. Our approach emphasizes practicality and accessibility. It has significant potential for applications in national security and plastic surgery. Additionally, it offers remote diagnosis and monitoring for medical conditions such as stroke, Bell's palsy, and acoustic neuroma. Moreover, it is adept at detecting and classifying emotions, from the overt to the subtle. The proposed face muscle analysis technique is an explainable alternative to deep learning methods and a non-invasive substitute to facial electromyography (fEMG).

Music recommendation for videos attracts growing interest in multi-modal research. However, existing systems focus primarily on content compatibility, often ignoring the users' preferences. Their inability to interact with users for further refinements or to provide explanations leads to a less satisfying experience. We address these issues with MuseChat, a first-of-its-kind dialogue-based recommendation system that personalizes music suggestions for videos. Our system consists of two key functionalities with associated modules: recommendation and reasoning. The recommendation module takes a video along with optional information including previous suggested music and user's preference as inputs and retrieves an appropriate music matching the context. The reasoning module, equipped with the power of Large Language Model (Vicuna-7B) and extended to multi-modal inputs, is able to provide reasonable explanation for the recommended music. To evaluate the effectiveness of MuseChat, we build a large-scale dataset, conversational music recommendation for videos, that simulates a two-turn interaction between a user and a recommender based on accurate music track information. Experiment results show that MuseChat achieves significant improvements over existing video-based music retrieval methods as well as offers strong interpretability and interactability.

Asset-specific factors are commonly used to forecast financial returns and quantify asset-specific risk premia. Using various machine learning models, we demonstrate that the information contained in these factors leads to even larger economic gains in terms of forecasts of sector returns and the measurement of sector-specific risk premia. To capitalize on the strong predictive results of individual models for the performance of different sectors, we develop a novel online ensemble algorithm that learns to optimize predictive performance. The algorithm continuously adapts over time to determine the optimal combination of individual models by solely analyzing their most recent prediction performance. This makes it particularly suited for time series problems, rolling window backtesting procedures, and systems of potentially black-box models. We derive the optimal gain function, express the corresponding regret bounds in terms of the out-of-sample R-squared measure, and derive optimal learning rate for the algorithm. Empirically, the new ensemble outperforms both individual machine learning models and their simple averages in providing better measurements of sector risk premia. Moreover, it allows for performance attribution of different factors across various sectors, without conditioning on a specific model. Finally, by utilizing monthly predictions from our ensemble, we develop a sector rotation strategy that significantly outperforms the market. The strategy remains robust against various financial factors, periods of financial distress, and conservative transaction costs. Notably, the strategy's efficacy persists over time, exhibiting consistent improvement throughout an extended backtesting period and yielding substantial profits during the economic turbulence of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We introduce a unified framework for rapid, large-scale portfolio optimization that incorporates both shrinkage and regularization techniques. This framework addresses multiple objectives, including minimum variance, mean-variance, and the maximum Sharpe ratio, and also adapts to various portfolio weight constraints. For each optimization scenario, we detail the translation into the corresponding quadratic programming (QP) problem and then integrate these solutions into a new open-source Python library. Using 50 years of return data from US mid to large-sized companies, and 33 distinct firm-specific characteristics, we utilize our framework to assess the out-of-sample monthly rebalanced portfolio performance of widely-adopted covariance matrix estimators and factor models, examining both daily and monthly returns. These estimators include the sample covariance matrix, linear and nonlinear shrinkage estimators, and factor portfolios based on Asset Pricing (AP) Trees, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Risk Premium PCA (RP-PCA), and Instrumented PCA (IPCA). Our findings emphasize that AP-Trees and PCA-based factor models consistently outperform all other approaches in out-of-sample portfolio performance. Finally, we develop new l1 and l2 regularizations of factor portfolio norms which not only elevate the portfolio performance of AP-Trees and PCA-based factor models but they have a potential to reduce an excessive turnover and transaction costs often associated with these models., Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures

We propose a method for constructing sparse high-frequency volatility estimators that are robust against change points in the spot volatility process. The estimators we propose are $\ell_1$-regularized versions of existing volatility estimators. We focus on power variation estimators as they represent a fundamental class of volatility estimators. We establish consistency of these estimators for the true unobserved volatility and the change points locations, showing that minimax rates can be achieved for particular volatility estimators. The new estimators utilize the computationally efficient least angle regression algorithm for estimation purposes, followed by a reduced dynamic programming step to refine the final number of change points. In terms of numerical performance, these estimators are not only computationally fast but also accurately identify breakpoints near the end of the sample, both features highly desirable in today's electronic trading environment. In terms of out-of-sample volatility prediction, our new estimators provide more realistic and smoother volatility forecasts, outperforming a broad range of classical and recent volatility estimators across various frequencies and forecasting horizons.

We provide a new non-invasive, easy-to-scale for large amounts of subjects and a remotely accessible method for (hidden) emotion detection from videos of human faces. Our approach combines face manifold detection for accurate location of the face in the video with local face manifold embedding to create a common domain for the measurements of muscle micro-movements that is invariant to the movement of the subject in the video. In the next step, we employ the Digital Image Speckle Correlation (DISC) and the optical flow algorithm to compute the pattern of micro-movements in the face. The corresponding vector field is mapped back to the original space and superimposed on the original frames of the videos. Hence, the resulting videos include additional information about the direction of the movement of the muscles in the face. We take the publicly available CK++ dataset of visible emotions and add to it videos of the same format but with hidden emotions. We process all the videos using our micro-movement detection and use the results to train a state-of-the-art network for emotions classification from videos -- Frame Attention Network (FAN). Although the original FAN model achieves very high out-of-sample performance on the original CK++ videos, it does not perform so well on hidden emotions videos. The performance improves significantly when the model is trained and tested on videos with the vector fields of muscle movements. Intuitively, the corresponding arrows serve as edges in the image that are easily captured by the convolutions filters in the FAN network.

We investigate the inverse problem for Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) in scenarios where the parameters of the given PDE dynamics may exhibit changepoints at random time. We employ Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) - universal approximators capable of estimating the solution of any physical law described by a system of PDEs, which serves as a regularization during neural network training, restricting the space of admissible solutions and enhancing function approximation accuracy. We demonstrate that when the system exhibits sudden changes in the PDE dynamics, this regularization is either insufficient to accurately estimate the true dynamics, or it may result in model miscalibration and failure. Consequently, we propose a PINNs extension using a Total-Variation penalty, which allows to accommodate multiple changepoints in the PDE dynamics and significantly improves function approximation. These changepoints can occur at random locations over time and are estimated concurrently with the solutions. Additionally, we introduce an online learning method for re-weighting loss function terms dynamically. Through empirical analysis using examples of various equations with parameter changes, we showcase the advantages of our proposed model. In the absence of changepoints, the model reverts to the original PINNs model. However, when changepoints are present, our approach yields superior parameter estimation, improved model fitting, and reduced training error compared to the original PINNs model.