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This article is theoretical and presents the currency reform of June 20, 1948, which laid the basis for the reconstruction and rebirth of the West German economy after World War II. The authors analyze the conditions related to the need to carry out the reform, emphasizing the role and interests of the United States in this undertaking. It is widely be-lieved that the reform gave rise to impressive economic growth, the so-called "economic miracle" that no one could have predicted before. A closer analysis, however, shows that the initial aim was not to pave the way for an economic miracle, but it was rather a meticulously prepared plan of action by the American superpower to strengthen its position in the world and limit the influence of the socialist idea. Therefore, this paper seeks to explore the hypothesis that the currency reform in post-WWII Germany was primarily aimed at securing American dominance and limiting Soviet influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

El impacto macroeconómico es crucial para determinar el bienestar de un país. Analizar variables como el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), la inflación, el desempleo, la inversión y el comercio exterior permite evaluar la salud económica y estabilidad financiera de una nación. El presente articulo busca analizar el impacto de la dolarización en Ecuador entre 2006 y 2023. Adoptada en 2000 para estabilizar la economía y atraer inversión extranjera, la dolarización presentó desafíos en términos de política monetaria y fiscal. Autores como Cachanosky y Alvarado destacan los retos en el control fiscal y la relación entre exportaciones e ingreso externo. El estudio utiliza una metodología cuantitativa, con análisis de regresión y series temporales basadas en datos del Banco Central del Ecuador. Los resultados muestran un crecimiento moderado del PIB y de la inversión bruta, pero también fluctuaciones en la liquidez y el crédito al sector privado, junto con una persistente desigualdad en la distribución del ingreso. Las conclusiones señalan que, aunque la dolarización ha aportado estabilidad, ha limitado la autonomía monetaria del país. Además, la dependencia de factores externos, como la política monetaria de Estados Unidos, ha afectado la estabilidad económica de Ecuador. Se subraya la importancia de diversificar la economía y promover políticas que fomenten un crecimiento sostenible y equitativo, reduciendo la vulnerabilidad frente a fluctuaciones externas.

This paper seeks to test the hypothesis that Banco de México defines its monetary interest rate policy based on other variables, far from the interest rate, going against the principles of the Taylor´s rule. An econometric study with Acyclic Directed Graphs (GDA) is proposed, which according to the bibliographic review would be a pioneering application in the object of this study, to measure causal relationships on various variables. The data was obtained from Banco de México and INEGI. The results reveal that the definition of the reference rate in Mexico is likely to follow the guidelines of the Federal Reserve in the United States, mostly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systemic risk has certain properties that make it behave as a complex system, one of which is its nonlinearity. The objective of this paper is to empirically address the systemic risk-taking channel of monetary policy from this perspective using the U.S. case and the TVPVAR model with Structural Factor Augmented (SFA-TVP-VAR). In order to obtain robust results, I estimate this model with two different metrics of the monetary policy stance, with different parameters and priors in each case. Considering the remaining system variables as latent variables, I document evidence of a complex channel: I find that the relationship between monetary policy stance and systemic risk-taking is non-linear and adaptive to economic conditions. Specifically, the posterior estimation shows that the monetary policy maintains an inverse relationship with systemic risk-taking in the long run, indicating that a loose stance increases systemic risk; however, in the short run, in earlier periods and during a financial crisis, a restrictive shock of monetary policy, instead of reducing systemic risk-taking, increases it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Boletín Económico de ICE is the property of S.G.E.E.I.P.C., Secretaria de Estado de Comercio, Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Turismo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Boletín Económico de ICE is the property of S.G.E.E.I.P.C., Secretaria de Estado de Comercio, Ministerio de Industria, Comercio y Turismo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper analyzes empirically the existence of the credit channel of monetary policy in Mexico, that is, the relationship between changes in the target interest rate and variations in credit granted by commercial banks. The study combines aggregate information with data from the individual balance sheets of commercial banks and conducts a panel data regression analysis. The analysis is performed for total credit and its components (business, consumer, and mortgage). Additionally, by using banks' accounting information, it explores whether the transmission mechanism occurs on the supply side. It is found that there is a negative and economically significant relationship between interest rate and credit, and such a relationship is established for different types of credit. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the transmission mechanism operates on the supply side, as banks with more robust balance sheets exhibit greater resilience to changes in the interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Investigación Económica is the property of Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Facultad de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

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Se llevó a cabo un estudio sobre la incidencia en la estabilidad de precios en la política monetaria de Ecuador. Este estudio se realizó durante un periodo de 5 años, de 2018 a 2023, utilizando los valores totales de la deuda y gasto público. La finalidad de este estudio fue comprobar el rol de la política monetaria y su efecto en la estabilidad de precios. Para esto, se empleó el método descriptivo y se trató de una investigación de carácter bibliográfico. Además, se hizo uso del modelo econométrico en el que se aplica una regresión lineal simple para el análisis econométrico. La investigación se centró en establecer la correlación entre estas dos variables, designando como independiente gasto público y la deuda pública, como variable dependiente la política monetaria. La estrategia monetaria de Ecuador, especialmente la implementación de la dolarización ha influido notablemente en la economía del país, y su manejo eficiente es esencial para el futuro económico de la nación.

Tras la victoria de Hugo Chávez Frías en 1999, Venezuela fue enfrentando una progresiva crisis económica que ya heredaba de gobiernos anteriores, pero que se vio notablemente acelerada con las políticas impulsadas por el gobierno chavista. Ante los inconvenientes inflacionarios, la política monetaria tomó un rol protagónico mediante una serie de experimentos monetarios que fueron contribuyendo al envilecimiento de los indicadores internacionales de gestión del riesgo financiero, los cuales reaccionaron al ritmo que se daban las reconversiones monetarias y demás medidas que fueron haciendo mella en la confianza internacional. Dicha caída en la confianza llevaría a un efecto de círculo vicioso, en el que la crisis llevaba a nuevas medidas gubernamentales, las cuales mermaban la confianza y, por tanto, aumentaban la crisis.

Copyright of Economía, Sociedad y Territorio is the property of El Colegio Mexiquense and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

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Copyright of Revista de Economía is the property of Universidade Federal do Parana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article analyzes the relationship between macroeconomics and (labor) poverty between 2005 and 2022. Three scenarios were considered: 1) income, inflation, interest rate and labor poverty, while scenarios 2) and 3) considered labor income and inflation of lines of poverty and extreme poverty in relation to income, respectively. An impulse response function and its cointegrating relationship are estimated for each scenario. The results suggest that the interest rate does indeed have an impact on poverty: a monetary policy that prioritizes low and stable inflation corresponds to a lower poverty rate, as well as higher income. Finally, it is concluded that inflation is detrimental to poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Investigación Económica is the property of Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Facultad de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Este trabajo desarrolla modelos teóricos de metas de inflación, los cuales concilian dos fenómenos que han caracterizado a la economía mexicana en el período 2000-2020: esta economía ha presentado una inflación y una tasa de crecimiento económico bajas y estables. Para llevar adelante esta tarea primero se analizan los canales de transmisión de la política monetaria, en particular los de la tasa de interés y del crédito. Luego se endogeniza la tasa de crecimiento natural de la economía, explotando la fuerte correlación que existe entre esa variable y la tasa de crecimiento efectiva. El desarrollo de los modelos muestra las condiciones que se deben cumplir para que una política monetaria contraccionista tengo un efecto negativo permanente en las tasas de crecimiento de la economía, al mismo tiempo que se controla la inflación. Estas condiciones implican que el crédito tenga una fuerte respuesta al nivel de crecimiento de la economía y que la tasa de crecimiento natural dependa de forma positiva de la tasa de crecimiento efectiva.

En todos los países, los objetivos de política económica son muy importantes. Sin duda, el crecimiento económico tiene mucha trascendencia, debido a que la actividad económica influye en muchos aspectos, entre otros, en la generación de empleo, en la reducción de la pobreza y en los ingresos del Estado. Además, como lo plantea Amartya Sen, aunque el crecimiento no es equivalente al desarrollo económico, sí es un medio para alcanzarlo. El crecimiento en Colombia ha venido descendiendo, incluso desde antes de la pandemia del coronavirus. En el año 2020 bajó sustancialmente hasta -7,2 %; mientras que, en los años 2021 y 2022, repuntó considerablemente hasta alcanzar tasas del 10,7 y del 7,5 %, respectivamente. En estos dos últimos años, el alto crecimiento se explica, en gran parte, por las políticas monetarias y fiscales expansivas, como también por los favorables términos de intercambio y el aumento de las remesas. Empero, el crecimiento en 2023 fue de apenas 0,6 %.

RESUMO O controle dos agregados monetários no Brasil enfrenta três grandes problemas: 1) alto déficit orçamentário do governo; 2) a ineficácia da taxa de juros como instrumento de política em um ambiente de alta inflação; 3) inovação financeira imprevisível. Os dois primeiros problemas são especialmente importantes quando se tenta projetar programas de estabilização. Depois que a inflação atinge um certo nível, as políticas monetárias padrão tornam-se impotentes. O controle do déficit orçamentário (ou seja, a limitação do uso do imposto inflacionário) torna-se uma condição necessária para a estabilização.

Reseña al libro: Meireles, M. y Maya, C. (coordinadoras). Senderos de la recuperación pospandémica: política monetaria, inestabilidad financiera y desarrollo económico. UNAM. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas. pp. 195. 2023. México. ISBN 978-607-30-7313-4

RESUMO Este artigo discute porque a inflação é tão alta na América Latina e o que pode ser feito para detê-la. A primeira parte começa com uma análise do monetarismo. Discute também os modelos de senhoriagem, o impacto da crise da dívida e da dolarização sobre a inflação. Em seguida, revisamos o estruturalismo e sua visão mais recente: a inércia inflacionária. Em seguida, integramos as diferentes interpretações da inflação. A segunda parte examina os programas de estabilização, começando pela análise dos programas derivados do diagnóstico monetarista, ou programas ortodoxos. Em seguida, nos voltamos para programas heterodoxos, incluindo tanto programas populistas quanto programas baseados em uma nova interpretação da inflação. Os programas de estabilização da década de 1980 não conseguiram obter a consolidação orçamentária e os grandes déficits orçamentários levaram a economia a uma situação clássica de finanças inflacionárias.

RESUMO Este artigo faz uma classificação dos processos de inflação. A inflação moderada é um fenômeno representado pela Curva de Phillip. Na inflação crônica, a indexação inercial e retrospectiva são fatores importantes. A hiperinflação elimina a indexação retrospectiva e é dominada pela expectativa e pelas dificuldades financeiras do fator público. Argumenta-se que, embora o déficit do fator de inflação pública nem sempre seja a causa primária da inflação crônica, em estágios posteriores nenhum déficit do governo pode ser financiado. A falta de todas as fontes de financiamento de fatores públicos é o que caracteriza a transição para a hiperinflação. A cena brasileira atual é analisada.

This study aims to investigate the factors influencing individuals' intention to use Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the digital economy era from an individual perspective using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) as a framework. The study contributes academically by examining individual intention to use CBDC from the user's perspective, filling a research gap, expanding the TAM's application area and theoretical sources, testing the validity of hypotheses, and introducing technology into behavioral research in social psychology. Managerially, the study provides recommendations for the government and central bank on improving individuals' intention to use CBDC, formulating effective development paths and promotion plans, and enhancing public interest while reducing confusion and worry. The study finds that the technical characteristics and economic attributes of CBDC, such as offline trading, non-forgery, no double spending, irrevocability, and controlled anonymity, have a positive impact on individuals' intention to use CBDC. It also identifies new factors influencing human behavior patterns in the digital economy, such as perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, perceived security, perceived trust, perceived privacy, perceived social influence, and perceived compatibility. Furthermore, the study highlights the importance of understanding individuals' intention to use CBDC in the digital economy era. The growth rate of mobile payments in China has been significant over the past decade, indicating the increasing importance of mobile payments and digital currencies in the Chinese economy and the potential for further growth in the future. The introduction of CBDCs can help facilitate transactions, enhance financial inclusion, and support the growth of the digital economy. In summary, this study provides valuable insights for governments, central banks, and other stakeholders in developing and promoting CBDCs effectively. The findings have significant implications for policy-makers, industry practitioners, and academic researchers interested in digital currencies, mobile payments, and the future of money in the digital economy era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Economía is the property of Universidade Federal do Parana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

La evaluación de la política monetaria sobre la actividad económica se ha enfocado al ámbito nacional sin considerar sus efectos a nivel regional. El objetivo de este documento es estimar los efectos que un incremento no previsto de la tasa de interés tendría sobre la producción regional en México para el periodo 2000-2019. Para ello, se emplea un modelo estructural de vectores autorregresivos (SVAR) en panel. Los resultados sugieren un efecto negativo y diferenciado sobre la producción regional. Este efecto se presenta a partir del segundo trimestre, después del aumento de la tasa de interés.

Para finales de su reinado, Felipe ii modificó la ley de la moneda como mecanismo económico para mantener los gastos imperiales; sus sucesores Felipe iii y iv recurrieron a la misma medida, pero en una escala aún mayor. Estas decisiones supeditaron la política monetaria a la política fiscal y permitieron a los mercaderes caribeños alinear sus intereses a las necesidades de la Corona. En Cartagena de Indias solicitaron liquidar las monedas de plata baja y fundar una ceca que emitiera moneda fraccionaria para dinamizar sus acuerdos comerciales. Este artículo busca identificar los intereses de la élite mercantil cartagenera y la primera acuñación de numerario neogranadino. Además, contribuye a sinterizar la efímera existencia de la ceca cartagenera, clausurada por infringir los topes de peso y ley autorizados para sus piezas, dejando a la Casa de la Moneda de Santa Fe de Bogotá como único centro financiero del Nuevo Reino de Granada.

RESUMO Este artigo é uma tentativa de calcular qual deve ser o desconto de NCZ$ se o Banco Central do Brasil fizer leilões para convertê-los em Cr$. Usando algumas fórmulas simples da matemática financeira, é mostrado que o desconto é uma função direta da taxa de juros esperada do mercado e uma inversão de prazo até a conversão de NCZ $ em Cr$. Com base nisso, é feita uma matriz de resultados, que pode ser útil para isolar o desconto devido exclusivamente à desconfiança de todo o desconto. A conclusão mais notável é que o desconto pode ser alto mesmo em um contexto de total confiança, apenas porque a taxa de juros esperada do mercado também é alta.

RESUMO Este artigo tenta analisar o escopo de uma política monetária no contexto de dinheiro endógeno, instabilidade e mobilidade de capital. Começa com a crítica pós-keynesiana ao mainstream e termina com a impotência do banco central em alcançar a estabilidade de preços no Brasil através do uso de instrumentos clássicos de política monetária.

O presente trabalho avalia as respostas da inflação desagregada a choques de política monetária durante o período de 2003 a 2020. Modelos de Vetores Autor-regressivos com parâmetros variantes no tempo (TVP-VAR) são estimados, e uti-lizam-se as funções de resposta ao impulso para avaliar o comportamento dos preços desagregados em relação a choques na Selic em diferentes períodos. Para verificar possíveis mudanças na condução da política monetária no período, esti-mou-se também uma regra de Taylor para o período estudado sujeito a quebras estruturais. Os resultados do teste de quebra estrutural de Bai e Perron (2003) encontraram evidências empíricas de uma quebra em 2006m08, que pode estar associada a uma mudança na condução de política monetária por parte do Banco Central. Essa data, com as datas em que assumiram os presidentes do Banco Cen-tral, foi utilizada na análise das funções de resposta ao impulso do TVP-PVAR para comparação dos efeitos dos choques de política monetária em períodos dis-tintos. Os resultados, a partir das funções de resposta ao impulso estimadas, de-mostram respostas semelhantes dos choques de política monetária sobre preços desagregados em períodos distintos.

Este estudo busca verificar se a economia brasileira esteve sob dominância fiscal nos anos de 2015 a 2016, no período que compreende o rebaixamento do rating do Brasil até o momento próximo à conclusão do processo de impeachment presidencial. Aplica-se o modelo de Blanchard (2004) estudando o impacto do aumento da taxa de juros doméstica sobre a taxa de câmbio. A análise empírica considera os movimentos no fluxo de capital e o prêmio de risco associado à expectativa de maior endividamento público. Os resultados demonstram que tal medida causa um movimento contrário ao esperado, desvalorizando a taxa de câmbio pela relação da dívida pública esperada com a probabilidade de default, prejudicando o controle da inflação e corroborando a hipótese de dominância fiscal.

This article explores the impact of economic policy uncertainty on industry-level risk in North America. The study finds that economic policy uncertainty has a statistically significant positive effect on industry-level risk in various industries. The research suggests that higher policy uncertainty leads to uncertainty in investment decisions and negatively affects industry capitalization. However, the study acknowledges that there are other factors that can influence industry-level risk and further research is needed to fully understand the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and firm-level risk. [Extracted from the article]

Copyright of Dilemas Contemporáneos: Educación, Política y Valores is the property of Dilemas Contemporaneos: Educacion, Politica y Valores and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study investigates the maturity structure of listed non-financial Brazilian companies from 2010 to 2019 and reveals that these companies do not spread their debt maturities upon renewal, unlike the results observed by Choi et al. (2018) for US firms. Even after the rollover shock in 2015 where the Brazilian sovereign debt's investment were downgraded, these firms did not increase the maturity spread of their debt. In addition, the research evaluated corporate debt management by utilizing Brazil's downgrade as a "quasi-natural experiment" in the exogenous shock model. The results indicate that Brazilian companies may face considerable debt rollover risks due to the concentration of maturities in specific maturity ranges during future credit shocks. Proper control of financing structures is crucial to ensure that companies remain resilient and do not have to turn down profitable investments or high-quality assets during financial crises. This research has significant implications for corporate practice and the associated risks of financing profitable projects, particularly in countries with less efficient capital markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Central Bank of Chile is the entity in charge of deciding monetary policy in the country, mainly through the management of the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM in spanish). It was founded in 1925 but it has suffered a lot of modification over time, the most important that of 1989, which gave the autonomy of the Bank with respect to the government in power. Nowadays in Chile there is a constitutional process, one of the most important aspect is the Central Bank. This document describes a series of failures over time in the Central Bank with proposals associated with those failures. This document is like that of Rowland (2022), however, examples related to the case of Argentina are incorporated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a political-economic analysis of the 1991-2021 period in Colombian history, by characterizing the dynamics of monetary policy, to understand the way the socioeconomic structure functions with the guidelines of the political superstructure. We provide possible answers about how the maneuver of the investor confidence economic policy advanced against the control of inflation in the boom of foreign capital. In the end, some brief conclusions are presented aimed at sustaining the permanence of the criteria of monetary sovereignty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Investigación Económica is the property of Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Facultad de Economia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Revista Pretexto is the property of Revista Pretexto and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

RESUMO Este artigo analisa o processo inflacionário japonês ocorrido no período após a Segunda Guerra Mundial, entre 1945-1950, suas causas e as políticas de estabilização, reformas monetárias e fiscais. Inicialmente, analisa as fábricas que aumentaram o nível de preços. As medidas adotadas para reverter esse processo foram divididas em dois subperíodos: fase 1 (entre 1946-1948) e fase 2 (entre 1949-1951). Essas políticas e reformas econômicas resultaram em uma estabilização econômica.

RESUMO Neste artigo, o autor discute a dinâmica dos regimes monetários internacionais. Em oposição à economia convencional, esses regimes são vistos como instituições históricas irreversíveis, caracterizadas por uma instabilidade estrutural. Eles são definidos pelo grau de rigidez cambial, pela mobilidade dos capitais e pelo peso dos objetivos internos na função de preferência dos governos. Sua dinâmica é baseada em uma sequência irreversível definida pela crescente degradação dos ajustes macroeconômicos, levando ao acúmulo de tensões e a uma instabilidade estrutural, à medida que a economia mundial muda, e finalmente a questionar os princípios fundadores do regime monetário internacional.

Desde su creación como máxima autoridad monetaria, cambiaria y crediticia, a partir de la Constitución de 1991, la Junta Directiva del Banco de la República es, sin duda, la institución económica más respetada y respetable del país. A continuación, se presenta una síntesis de las discusiones y decisiones más relevantes en las últimas tres décadas, pasando por las relaciones y pulsos de la corporación con los gobiernos de turno, hasta las anécdotas de la elección de los codirectores en los períodos presidenciales.

Copyright of Revista de Derecho Comunitario Europeo is the property of Centro de Estudios Politicos y Constitucionales and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

En este estudio se propone utilizar las áreas monetarias óptimas como base teórica para el análisis de la plena dolarización en el Ecuador, considerando al país y a los Estados Unidos como una unión monetaria informal. Se examinan i) las propiedades de convergencia de las tasas de inflación entre el Ecuador y los Estados Unidos (mediante el uso de pruebas de raíces unitarias y de estacionariedad) y ii) el grado de vulnerabilidad de la economía ecuatoriana a los cambios en la política monetaria de los Estados Unidos (mediante modelos estructurales de vectores autorregresivos). Los resultados indican que las tasas de inflación convergen ex post, tras la dolarización plena del Ecuador, y que, por tanto, los cambios de política monetaria de los Estados Unidos afectan las variables macroeconómicas ecuatorianas. Además, se sostiene que la teoría de las áreas monetarias óptimas puede ser útil para estudiar las economías totalmente dolarizadas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Venezuelan economy shows a downward and sustained trend in per capita income. Getting a better understanding of the causes that originate such dynamics is the objective of this research. Thus, the critical determinants are decanted, the role of oil production, the reprimarization of the economy, the relationship between inflation, real wages, the real exchange rate, the interest rate and productivity within the limits of economic growth. Based on these results, the dilemmas of macroeconomic policy are identified. Likewise, some suggestions are proposed to specify a virtuous-cumulative and lasting development process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the study is to determine if a policy of preference for the domestic public debt market influences the development of the respective financial system. Using panel data techniques, I tested the causal relationship between the domestic marketing of public debt securities and eight indicators of financial development. For this, I used static regression models with fixed effects computed by ordinary least squares (OLS) or dynamic regression models with fixed effects computed by the generalized method of moments (GMM) in differences, depending on each case. I also used random effects models controlled by fixed effects calculated by two- stage least squares (2SLS). By rejecting the null hypothesis that the literature has been assuming as true, it was confirmed that the traditional theories of financial development were incomplete. Although the research shows that the preference for the domestic public debt securities market influences financial development -- and therefore economic development--it does not explain why it hasn't been given greater importance in less developed countries. The formulation of that answer would be more related to the fields of study in which ethics and politics move. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]