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In 2002 the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation made two long-term mega-grants���one to CalTech for $300 million and the other to Conservation International for $395 million.

The objective of this research was to assess the potential effects of global warming on the hydrology and vegetation in semi-permanent wetlands located in the glaciated prairie region of North Dakota. As a means to that objective, a spatially-defined simulation model of the vegetation dynamics in these wetlands was constructed. A hydrologic component of the model estimated water levels based on precipitation, runoff, potential evaporation and transpiration. Amount and distribution of emergent cover and open water were modeled using a geographical information system. Vegetation response to changes in water level was based on seed bank composition, seedling recruitment, establishment and plant survivorship. Simulation results were compared to actual distributions from aerial photographs (1979-89). Results showed that the model was relatively good at calculating changes in water level for average years. Late-summer water levels were overestimated during dry years due to limitations in the Thornthwaite method of calculating potential evapotranspiration. In general, changes in the ratio of emergent cover to open water were accurately simulated. Tests of the model elucidated two areas that needed improvement. First, seedlings germinated too quickly on exposed mudflats in the model when drawdown occurred late in the season. The actual wetland had a thick mat of dried, submergent vegetation on top of the mudflats which impeded germination, which the model did not consider. Second, model conversions between open water and deep marsh vegetation were not always timed correctly. If water depth crossed a threshold value for a given period of time a cell would change its type. In reality, tolerance of emergents to deep water is more complex. A probability function with respect to time and water depth rather than a threshold value would better represent this relationship. The model was used to assess the potential effects of global warming on the cover cycle in one wetland. An 11-year simulation was run using a normal versus greenhouse climate. Although water level fluctuations still occurred, peak values were significantly lower in the warming scenario and the wetland dried in most years. Simulations also revealed a significant change in the vegetation, from a nearly balanced cover ratio to a completely closed basin with no open water areas. Ph. D.

In 1985, 24 bottom samples were collected in each of two slightly brackish,semi-permanent prairie wetlands (P1 and P4) with different hydroperiods. The main objective was to determine if hydroperiod affected seed pool characteristics. Additionally, 48 samples were collected in 1986 from wetland P1 to determine if seed bank composition changed annually without a change in mature vegetation. Seed bank composition was determined by placing soil samples in a greenhouse, then counting and identifying emerged seedlings. As a check against the seedling emergence method, seeds were separated and identified microscopically in one-third of the 1985 samples. Results indicated that the emergence method was an accurate technique for assessing seed pool composition. The wetlands did not differ in floristic composition (i.e., presence/absence) but did in species densities. The mean relative density of mudflat annuals in all seed pool samples was significantly greater in wetland P4 (82%) than in P1 (52%). A shorter hydroperiod in this wetland produces more frequent drawdowns and a greater input of mudflat annual seeds. Conversely, seeds of emergent species were more abundant in the seed bank of wetland Pl (48%) compared to P4 (17%). The former wetland has a longer hydroperiod and less frequent drawdowns, and thus, the primary seed input is from emergent plants. Master of Science