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This study examines the relationship between early solar coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation, the associated filament eruption, and coronal dimming in the rare event observed on March 28, 2022, which featured a three-part CME in the low corona of active region AR 12975, including a bright core/filament, dark cavity, and bright front edge. We employ 3D filament and CME shock reconstructions using data from SolO, STEREO-A, and SDO to track the filament's path, height, and kinematics. Our analysis across three viewpoints shows the outer front in SolO/EUI 304 \r{A} aligns with shock structures in STEREO-A/EUVI 195 \r{A}, showing a full 3D EUV wave dome, later matching the outer CME front in STEREO-A COR2. We introduce the method ATLAS-3D (Advanced Technique for single Line-of-sight Acquisition of Structures in 3D) and validate it against traditional approaches to reconstruct CME shock using SOLO data exclusively. Additionally, we estimate early CME propagation characteristics based on coronal dimming evolution with the DIRECD method. Results indicate that the filament height increased from 28 to 616 Mm (0.04 to 0.89 Rs) within 30 minutes (11:05 to 11:35 UT), reaching peak velocity of around 648 km/s and acceleration of around 1624 m/s$^2$. At 11:45 UT, the filament deflected by 12{\deg} to a height of 841 Mm (1.21 Rs), while the CME shock expanded from 383 to 837 Mm (0.55 to 1.2 Rs) over 10 minutes. Key parameters include a CME direction inclined by 6{\deg}, a 21{\deg} half-width, and a 1.12 Rs cone height at the dimming's impulsive phase end. This event demonstrates that expanding dimming correlates with early CME development, with the DIRECD method linking 2D dimming to 3D CME evolution. These insights underscore the value of multi-viewpoint observations and advanced reconstructions for improving space weather forecasting., Comment: 14 pages, 9 main figures, 2 appendix figures, 1 table, accepted for Publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

On May 8, 2024, solar active region 13664 produced an X-class flare, several M-class flares, and multiple Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The initial CME caused coronal dimmings, characterized by localized reductions in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) emissions, indicating mass loss and expansion during the eruption. After one solar rotation, on June 8, 2024, the same region produced another M-class flare followed by coronal dimmings observed by the SDO and STEREO spacecraft. We analyzed early CME evolution and direction from coronal dimming expansion at the end of the impulsive phase using the DIRECD (Dimming Inferred Estimation of CME Direction) method. To validate the 3D CME cone, we compared CME properties from the low corona with white-light coronagraph data. The May 8 CME expanded radially, with a 7.7 deg inclination, 70 deg angular width, and 0.81 Rsun cone height, while the June 8 CME had a 15.7 deg inclination, 81 deg width, and 0.89 Rsun height. Our study shows that tracking low coronal signatures, like coronal dimming expansion, can estimate CME direction early, providing crucial lead time for space weather forecasts., Comment: Accepted for Publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2311.13942

Coronal dimmings are regions of reduced emission in the lower corona, observed after coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and representing their footprints. In order to investigate the long-term evolution of coronal dimming and its recovery, we propose two approaches that focus on both the global and the local evolution of dimming regions: the fixed mask approach and the pixel boxes approach. We present four case studies (September 6, 2011; March 7, 2012; June 14, 2012; and March 8, 2019) in which a coronal dimming is associated with a flare/CME eruption. We identified the dimming region by image segmentation, then restricted the analysis to a specific portion of the dimming and tracked the time evolution of the dimming brightness and area. In addition, we studied the behavior of small subregions inside the dimming area, of about 3x3 pixels, to compare the recovery in different regions of the dimming. Three out of the four cases show a complete recovery 24 hours after the flare/CME eruption. The recovery of the brightness follows a two-step trend, with a steeper and quicker segment followed by a slower one. In addition, some parts of the dimming, which may be core dimmings, are still present at the end of the analysis time and do not recover within 3 days, whereas the peripheral regions (secondary dimmings) show a full recovery. We demonstrate that the primary mechanism for recovery identified in the observations is the expansion of coronal loops into the dimming region, which gradually increase their intensity. Our developed approaches enable the analysis of dimmings alongside these bright structures, revealing different timescales of recovery for core and secondary/twin dimming regions. Combined with magnetic field modeling, these methods lay the foundation for further systematic analysis of dimming recovery and enhance the knowledge gained from already-analyzed events., Comment: 18 pages, 18 figures, 5 movies, accepted to Astronomy & Astrophysics

We studied the rapid filament evolution in AR 12975 during a confined C2 flare on 28 March 2022, which led to an eruptive M4 flare 1.5 h later. It is characterized by the breakup of the filament, the disappearance of its southern half, and the flow of the remaining plasma into a longer channel with a topology similar to an EUV hot channel during the flare. Our multipoint study takes advantage of Solar Orbiter's position at 0.33 AU and 83. 5{\deg} west of the Sun-Earth line. STIX and EUI onboard Solar Orbiter observed the event at the limb. AIA and HMI onboard SDO provided on-disk observations from which we derived DEM maps and NLFF magnetic field extrapolations. We find that both filament channels likely existed in close proximity before the flare. Based on field structures associated with AIA 1600 {\AA} flare ribbons and kernels, we propose a loop-loop reconnection scenario between field lines that surround and pass beneath the shorter filament channel, and field lines following a portion of the longer channel. Reconnection occurs in an essentially vertical current sheet at a PIL below the breakup region, leading to the formation of the flare loop arcade and the EUV hot channel. The scenario is supported by concentrated currents and free magnetic energy built up by antiparallel flows along the PIL before the flare. The reconnection probably propagated to involve the original filament itself, leading to its breakup and reformation. The reconnection geometry provides a general mechanism for the formation of the long filament channel and realizes the concept of tether cutting, which was active throughout the filament's rise phase, lasting from at least 30 min before the C2 flare until the eruption. The C2 flare represents a period of fast reconnection during this otherwise more steady process, during which most of the original filament was reconnected and joined the longer channel.

Filaments are omnipresent features in the solar atmosphere. Their location, properties and time evolution can provide information about changes in solar activity and assist the operational space weather forecast. Therefore, filaments have to be identified in full disk images and their properties extracted from these images. Manual extraction is tedious and takes much time; extraction with morphological image processing tools produces a large number of false-positive detections. Automatic object detection, segmentation, and extraction in a reliable manner allows to process more data in a shorter time. The Chromospheric Telescope (ChroTel), Tenerife, Spain, the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG), and the Kanzelh\"ohe Observatory (KSO), Austria, provide regular full-disk observations of the Sun in the core of the chromospheric H-alpha absorption line. We present a deep learning method that provides reliable extractions of filaments from H-alpha filtergrams. First, we train the object detection algorithm YOLOv5 with labeled filament data of ChroTel. We use the trained model to obtain bounding-boxes from the full GONG archive. In a second step, we apply a semi-supervised training approach, where we use the bounding boxes of filaments, to learn a pixel-wise classification of filaments with u-net. Here, we make use of the increased data set size to avoid overfitting of spurious artifacts from the generated training masks. Filaments are predicted with an accuracy of 92%. With the resulting filament segmentations, physical parameters such as the area or tilt angle can be easily determined and studied. This we demonstrate in one example, where we determine the rush-to-the pole for Solar Cycle 24 from the segmented GONG images. In a last step, we apply the filament detection to H-alpha observations from KSO which demonstrates the general applicability of our method to H-alpha filtergrams., Comment: 15 pages, 14 figures

The McNish and Lincoln (ML) method, introduced in 1949, was one of the first attempts to produce mid-term forecasts of solar activity, up to 12 months ahead. However, it has been poorly described and evaluated in the past literature, in particular its actual operational implementation by NOAA. Here, we reconstruct the exact formulation of the method, as it was applied since the early 1970s, and we provide a full mathematical derivation of the prediction errors. For bench-marking the method, we also produce monthly predictions over the past 190 years, from 1833 (Cycle 8) to 2023 (Cycle 25), and develop statistics of the differences between the predictions and the observed 13-month smoothed sunspot number (SSN) time series, according to the phase in the solar cycle. Our analysis shows that the ML method is heavily constrained because it is primarily based on the mean of all past cycles, which imposes a fixed amplitude and length and suffers from a temporal smearing that grows towards the end of the solar cycle. We find that predictions are completely unreliable in the first 12 months of the cycle, and over the last two years preceding the ending minimum (around 130 months), and beyond this minimum. By contrast, in the course of the cycle (months 18 to 65), ML predictions prove to be reliable over a time range of up to 50 months (4.2 years), thus much longer than the 12-month conventional range used so far. However, we find that predictions then suffer from systematic under-(over-)estimates for cycles that have a higher (lower) amplitude than the base mean cycle. Overall, we conclude that although the ML method provides valid prediction errors, it suffers from strong limitations, with very little room for improvement, as it indifferently merges all past cycles into a single fixed statistics., Comment: 44 pages, 22 figures

A joint campaign of several space-borne and ground-based observatories, such as the GREGOR solar telescope, the Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer (EIS), and the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (Hinode Observing Plan 381, 11-22 October 2019) was conducted to investigate the plasma $\beta$ in quiet sun regions. In this work, we focus on October 13, 17, and 19, 2019, to obtain the plasma $\beta$ at different heights through the solar atmosphere based on multi-height observational data. We obtained temperature, density and magnetic field estimates from the GREGOR High-resolution Fast Imager (HiFI), and Infrared Spectrograph (GRIS), IRIS, EIS and complementary data from SDO/AIA. Using observational data and models (e.g., FALC and PFSS), we determined the plasma $\beta$ in the photosphere, chromosphere, transition region and corona. The obtained plasma $\beta$ values lie inside the expected ranges through the solar atmosphere. However, at EIS and AIA coronal heights (from $1.03\ R_{\odot}$ to $1.20\ R_{\odot}$) plasma $\beta$ values appear in the limit defined by Gary (2001); such behavior was previously reported by Rodr\'iguez G\'omez et al. (2019). Additionally, we obtained the plasma $\beta$ in the solar photosphere at different optical depths from $\log\ \tau=-1.0$ to $\log\ \tau=-2.0$. These values decrease with optical depth. This work provides a complete picture of plasma $\beta$ in quiet sun regions through the solar atmosphere, which is a pre-requisite of a better understanding of the plasma dynamics at the base of the solar corona.

Non-linear force-free extrapolations are a common approach to estimate the 3D topology of coronal magnetic fields based on photospheric vector magnetograms. The force-free assumption is a valid approximation at coronal heights, but for the dense plasma conditions in the lower atmosphere, this assumption is not satisfied. In this study, we utilize multi-height magnetic field measurements in combination with physics-informed neural networks to advance solar magnetic field extrapolations. We include a flexible height-mapping, which allows us to account for the different formation heights of the observed magnetic field measurements. The comparison to analytical and simulated magnetic fields demonstrates that including chromospheric magnetic field measurements leads to a significant improvement of our magnetic field extrapolations. We also apply our method to chromospheric line-of-sight magnetograms, from the Vector Spectromagnetograph (VSM) on the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) observatory, in combination with photospheric vector magnetograms, from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO). The comparison to observations in extreme ultraviolet wavelengths shows that the additional chromospheric information leads to a better agreement with the observed coronal structures. In addition, our method intrinsically provides an estimate of the corrugation of the observed magnetograms. With this new approach, we make efficient use of multi-height magnetic field measurements and advance the realism of coronal magnetic field simulations.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are solar eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields that significantly impact Space Weather, causing disruptions in technological systems and potential damage to power grids when directed towards Earth. Traditional coronagraphs along the Sun-Earth line struggle to precisely track the early evolution of Earth-directed CMEs. Coronal dimmings, localized reductions in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and soft X-ray emissions, are key indicators of CMEs in the low corona, resulting from mass loss and expansion during the eruption. This study introduces a novel method, DIRECD (Dimming InfeRred Estimate of CME Direction), to estimate the early propagation direction of CMEs based on the expansion of coronal dimmings. The approach involves 3D simulations of CMEs using a geometric cone model, exploring parameters like width, height, source location, and deflection from the radial direction. The dominant direction of dimming evolution is then determined, and an inverse problem is solved to reconstruct an ensemble of CME cones at various heights, widths, and deflections. By comparing the CME orthogonal projections onto the solar sphere with the dimming geometry, the 3D CME direction is derived. Validated through case studies on October 1, 2011, and September 6, 2011, the DIRECD method reveals the early propagation directions of CMEs. The CME on October 1, 2011, predominantly expands towards the South-East, while the CME on September 6, 2011, inclines towards the North-West. These findings align with previous studies using multi-viewpoint coronagraphic observations. The study demonstrates the utility of coronal dimming information for early CME direction estimation, providing valuable data for space weather forecasting and mitigating potential adverse impacts on Earth before observation in coronographs' field-of-view., Comment: 17 pages, accepted to Astronomy & Astrophysics

We present a case study of an M4-class flare on 28 March 2022, near Solar Orbiter's first science perihelion (0.33 AU). Solar Orbiter was 83.5{\deg} west of the Sun-Earth line, making the event appear near the eastern limb, while Earth-orbiting spacecraft observed it near the disk center. The timing and location of the STIX X-ray sources were related to the plasma evolution observed in the EUV by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) on Solar Orbiter and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory, and to the chromospheric response observed in 1600 {\AA} by AIA. We performed differential emission measure (DEM) analysis to further characterize the flaring plasma at different subvolumes. The pre-flare magnetic field configuration was analyzed using a nonlinear force-free (NLFF) extrapolation. In addition to the two classical hard X-ray (HXR) footpoints at the ends of the flaring loops, later in the event we observe a nonthermal HXR source at one of the anchor points of the erupting filament. The evolution of the AIA 1600~{\AA} footpoints indicates that this change in footpoint location represents a discontinuity in an otherwise continuous westward motion of the footpoints throughout the flare. The NLFF extrapolation suggests that strongly sheared field lines close to, or possibly even part of, the erupting filament reconnected with a weakly sheared arcade during the first HXR peak. The remainder of these field lines reconnected later in the event, producing the HXR peak at the southern filament footpoint. Our results show that the reconnection between field lines with very different shear in the early phase of the flare plays a crucial role in understanding the motion of the HXR footpoint during later parts of the flare. This generalizes simpler models, such as whipping reconnection, which only consider reconnection propagating along uniformly sheared arcades.

We investigate the relation between the spatiotemporal evolution of the dimming region and the dominant direction of the filament eruption and CME propagation for the 28 October 2021 X1.0 flare/CME event observed from multiple viewpoints by Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, SDO, and SOHO. We propose a method to estimate the dominant dimming direction by tracking its area evolution and emphasize its accurate estimation by calculating the surface area of a sphere for each pixel. To determine the early flux rope propagation direction, we perform 3D reconstruction of the CME via graduated cylindrical shell modeling (GCS) and tie-pointing of the filament. The dimming initially expands radially and later shifts southeast. The orthogonal projections of the reconstructed height evolution of the erupting filament onto the solar surface are located in the sector of the dominant dimming growth, while the orthogonal projections of the inner part of GCS reconstruction align with the total dimming area. The filament reaches a maximum speed of $\approx$250 km/s at a height of about $\approx$180 Mm. The direction of its motion is strongly inclined from the radial (64$^\circ$ to the East, 32$^\circ$ to the South). The 50$^\circ$ difference in the 3D direction between the CME and the filament leg closely corresponds to the CME half-width determined from reconstruction, suggesting a potential relation of the reconstructed filament to the associated leg of the CME body. Our findings highlight that the dominant propagation of the dimming growth reflects the direction of the erupting magnetic structure (filament) low in the solar atmosphere, though the filament evolution is not related directly to the direction of the global CME expansion. The overall dimming morphology closely resembles the inner part of the CME reconstruction, validating the use of dimming observations to obtain insight into the CME direction., Comment: 15 pages, 18 figures, accepted to Astronomy & Astrophysics

One of the main science questions of the Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe missions deals with understanding how electrons in the lower solar corona are accelerated and how they subsequently access interplanetary space. We aim to investigate the electron acceleration and energy release sites as well as the manner in which accelerated electrons access the interplanetary space in the case of the SOL2021-02-18T18:05 event, a GOES A8 class microflare associated with a coronal jet. This study takes advantage of three different vantage points, Solar Orbiter, STEREO-A, and Earth, with observations ranging from radio to X-ray. Multi-wavelength timing analysis combined with UV/EUV imagery and X-ray spectroscopy by Solar Orbiter/STIX (Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays) is used to investigate the origin of the observed emission during different flare phases. The event under investigation satisfies the classical picture of the onset time of the acceleration of electrons coinciding with the jet and the radio type III bursts. This microflare features prominent hard X-ray nonthermal emission down to at least 10 keV and a spectrum that is much harder than usual for a microflare with a spectral index of 2.9. From Earth's vantage point, the microflare is seen near the limb, revealing the coronal energy release site above the flare loop in EUV, which, from STIX spectroscopic analysis, turns out to be hot (at roughly the same temperature of the flare). Moreover, this region is moving toward higher altitudes over time (about 30 km/s). During the flare, the same region spatially coincides with the origin of the coronal jet. We conclude that the energy release site observed above-the-loop corresponds to the electron acceleration site, corroborating that interchange reconnection is a viable candidate for particle acceleration in the low corona on field lines open to interplanetary space., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures

Context. A solar eruption on 17 April 2021 produced a widespread Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) event that was observed by five longitudinally well-separated observers in the inner heliosphere at heliocentric distances of 0.42 to 1 au: BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and near-Earth spacecraft. The event produced relativistic electrons and protons. It was associated with a long-lasting solar hard X-ray flare and a medium fast Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) with a speed of 880 km/s driving a shock, an EUV wave as well as long-lasting radio burst activity showing four distinct type III burst. Methods. A multi-spacecraft analysis of remote-sensing and in-situ observations is applied to attribute the SEP observations at the different locations to the various potential source regions at the Sun. An ENLIL simulation is used to characterize the interplanetary state and its role for the energetic particle transport. The magnetic connection between each spacecraft and the Sun is determined. Based on a reconstruction of the coronal shock front we determine the times when the shock establishes magnetic connections with the different observers. Radio observations are used to characterize the directivity of the four main injection episodes, which are then employed in a 2D SEP transport simulation. Results. Timing analysis of the inferred SEP solar injection suggests different source processes being important for the electron and the proton event. Comparison among the characteristics and timing of the potential particle sources, such as the CME-driven shock or the flare, suggests a stronger shock contribution for the proton event and a more likely flare-related source of the electron event. Conclusions. We find that in this event an important ingredient for the wide SEP spread was the wide longitudinal range of about 110 degrees covered by distinct SEP injections.

We combine observations from different vantage points to perform a detailed study of a long duration eruptive C7 class flare that occurred on 17 April 2021 and was partially occulted from Earth view. The dynamics and thermal properties of the flare-related plasma flows, the flaring arcade, and the energy releases and particle acceleration are studied together with the kinematic evolution of the associated CME in order to place this long duration event in context of previous eruptive flare studies. The flare showed hard X-ray (HXR) bursts over the duration of an hour in two phases lasting from 16:04 UT to 17:05 UT. During the first phase, a strong increase in emission from hot plasma and impulsive acceleration of the CME was observed. The CME acceleration profile shows a three-part evolution of slow rise, acceleration, and propagation in line with the first STIX HXR burst phase, which is triggered by a rising hot (14 MK) plasmoid. During the CME acceleration phase, we find signatures of ongoing magnetic reconnection behind the erupting structure, in agreement with the standard eruptive flare scenario. The subsequent HXR bursts that occur about 30 minutes after the primary CME acceleration show a spectral hardening (from $\delta \approx $ 7 to $\delta \approx $ 4) but do not correspond to further CME acceleration and chromospheric evaporation. Therefore, the CME-flare feedback relationship may only be of significance within the first 25 minutes of the event under study, as thereafter the flare and the CME eruption evolve independently of each other.

Coronal holes (CHs) are the source of high-speed streams (HSSs) in the solar wind, whose interaction with the slow solar wind creates corotating interaction regions (CIRs) in the heliosphere. Whenever the CIRs hit the Earth, they can cause geomagnetic storms. We develop a method to predict the strength of CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations using the CH areas and associated magnetic field polarity. First, we build a dataset comprising the properties of CHs on the Sun, the associated HSSs, CIRs, and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at L1, and the strength of the associated geomagnetic storms by the geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp. Then, we predict the Dst and Kp indices using a Gaussian Process model, which accounts for the annual variation of the orientation of Earth's magnetic field axis. We demonstrate that the polarity of the IMF at L1 associated with CIRs is preserved in around 83% of cases when compared to the polarity of their CH sources. Testing our model over the period 2010-2020, we obtained a correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed Dst index of R = 0.63/0.73, and Kp index of R = 0.65/0.67, for HSSs having a polarity towards/away from the Sun. These findings demonstrate the possibility of predicting CIR/HSS-driven geomagnetic storms directly from solar observations and extending the forecasting lead time up to several days, which is relevant for enhancing space weather predictions., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

We analyze the complete chain of effects caused by a solar eruptive event in order to better understand the dynamic evolution of magnetic-field related quantities in interplanetary space, in particular that of magnetic flux and helicity. We study a series of connected events (a confined C4.5 flare, a flare-less filament eruption and a double-peak M-class flare) that originated in NOAA active region (AR) 12891 on 2021 November 1 and November 2. We deduce the magnetic structure of AR 12891 using stereoscopy and nonlinear force-free (NLFF) magnetic field modeling, allowing us to identify a coronal flux rope and to estimate its axial flux and helicity. Additionally, we compute reconnection fluxes based on flare ribbon and coronal dimming signatures from remote sensing imagery. Comparison to corresponding quantities of the associated magnetic cloud (MC), deduced from in-situ measurements from Solar Orbiter and near-Earth spacecraft, allows us to draw conclusions on the evolution of the associated interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME). The latter are aided through the application of geometric fitting techniques (graduated cylindrical shell modeling; GCS) and interplanetary propagation models (drag based ensemble modeling; DBEM) to the ICME. NLFF modeling suggests the host AR's magnetic structure in the form of a left-handed (negative-helicity) sheared arcade/flux rope reaching to altitudes of 8-10 Mm above photospheric levels, in close agreement with the corresponding stereoscopic estimate. Revealed from GCS and DBEM modeling, the ejected flux rope propagated in a self-similar expanding manner through interplanetary space. Comparison of magnetic fluxes and helicities processed by magnetic reconnection in the solar source region and the respective budgets of the MC indicate a considerable contribution from the eruptive process, though the pre-eruptive budgets appear of relevance too., Comment: 14 pages, 9 Figures, 3 Tables, 1 Movie; accepted for publication in A&A

Forecasting the solar cycle amplitude is important for a better understanding of the solar dynamo as well as for many space weather applications. We demonstrated a steady relationship between the maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a cycle and the subsequent cycle amplitude on the basis of four data sets of solar activity indices: total sunspot numbers, hemispheric sunspot numbers from the new catalogue from 1874 onwards, total sunspot areas, and hemispheric sunspot areas. For all the data sets, a linear regression based on the maximal growth rate precursor shows a significant correlation. Validation of predictions for cycles 1-24 shows high correlations between the true and predicted cycle amplitudes reaching r = 0.93 for the total sunspot numbers. The lead time of the predictions varies from 2 to 49 months, with a mean value of 21 months. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the sum of maximal growth rate indicators determined separately for the north and the south hemispheric sunspot numbers provides more accurate predictions than that using total sunspot numbers. The advantages reach 27% and 11% on average in terms of rms and correlation coefficient, respectively. The superior performance is also confirmed with hemispheric sunspot areas with respect to total sunspot areas. The maximal growth rate of sunspot activity in the ascending phase of a solar cycle serves as a reliable precursor of the subsequent cycle amplitude. Furthermore, our findings provide a strong foundation for supporting regular monitoring, recording, and predictions of solar activity with hemispheric sunspot data, which capture the asymmetric behaviour of the solar activity and solar magnetic field and enhance solar cycle prediction methods., Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in the Astronomy & Astrophysics

Context. Accurate detections of frequent small-scale extreme ultraviolet (EUV) brightenings are essential to the investigation of the physical processes heating the corona. Aims. We detected small-scale brightenings, termed campfires, using their morphological and intensity structures as observed in coronal EUV imaging observations for statistical analysis. Methods. We applied a method based on Zernike moments and a support vector machine classifier to automatically identify and track campfires observed by Solar Orbiter/Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) and SDO/AIA. Results. This method detected 8678 campfires (with length scales between 400 km and 4000 km) from a sequence of 50 High Resolution EUV telescope (HRIEUV) 174{\AA} images. From 21 near co-temporal AIA images covering the same field of view as EUI, we found 1131 campfires, 58% of which were also detected in HRIEUV images. In contrast, about 16% of campfires recognized in HRIEUV were detected by AIA. We obtain a campfire birthrate of 2*10-16m-2s-1. About 40% of campfires show a duration longer than 5 s, having been observed in at least two HRIEUV images. We find that 27% of campfires were found in coronal bright points and the remaining 73% have occurred out of coronal bright points. We detected 23 EUI campfires with a duration greater than 245 s. We found that about 80% of campfires are formed at supergranular boundaries, and the features with the highest total intensities are generated at network junctions and intense H I Lyman-{\alpha} emission regions observed by EUI/HRILya. The probability distribution functions for the total intensity, peak intensity, and projected area of campfires follow a power law behavior with absolute indices between 2 and 3. This self-similar behavior is a possible signature of self-organization, or even self-organized criticality, in the campfire formation process.

We investigate the relationship between different transients such as blinkers detected in images taken at 304~{\AA}, extreme ultraviolet coronal bright points (ECBPs) at 193~{\AA}, X-ray coronal bright points (XCBPs) at 94~{\AA} on AIA, and magnetic features observed by HMI during ten years of solar cycle 24. An automatic identification method is applied to detect transients, and the YAFTA algorithm is used to extract the magnetic features. Using ten years of data, we detect in total 7,483,827 blinkers, 2,082,162 ECBPs, and 1,188,839 XCBPs, respectively, with their birthrate of about $1.1\times10^{-18}$ ${\rm m}^{-2}{\rm s}^{-1}$, $3.8\times10^{-19}$ ${\rm m}^{-2}{\rm s}^{-1}$, and $1.5\times10^{-19}$ ${\rm m}^{-2}{\rm s}^{-1}$. We find that about 80\% of blinkers are observed at the boundaries of supergranules, and 57\% (34\%) are associated with ECBPs (XCBPs). We further find that about 61{--}80\% of transients are associated with the isolated magnetic poles in the quiet Sun and that \textbf{the normalized maximum intensities of the transients are correlated with photospheric magnetic flux of poles} via a power law. These results conspicuously show that these transients have a magnetic origin and their synchronized behavior provides further clues towards the understanding of the coupling among the different layers of the solar atmosphere. Our study further reveals that the appearance of these transients is strongly anti-correlated with the sunspots cycle. This finding can be relevant for a better understanding of solar dynamo and magnetic structures at different scales during the solar cycle.

During its commissioning phase in 2020, the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX) on board the Solar Orbiter spacecraft observed 69 microflares. The two most significant events from this set (of GOES class B2 and B6) were observed on-disk from the spacecraft as well as from Earth and analysed in terms of the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics. We complement the observations from the STIX instrument with EUV imagery from SDO/AIA and GOES soft X-ray data by adding imaging and plasma diagnostics over different temperature ranges for a detailed microflare case study that is focussed on energy release and transport. Spectral fitting of the STIX data shows clear nonthermal emission for both microflares studied here. The deduced plasma parameters from DEM reconstruction as well as spectral fitting roughly agree with the values in the literature for microflares as do the nonthermal fit parameters from STIX. The observed Neupert effects and impulsive and gradual phases indicate that both events covered in this study are consistent with the standard chromospheric evaporation flare scenario. For the B6 event on 7 June 2020, this interpretation is further supported by the temporal evolution seen in the DEM profiles of the flare ribbons and loops. For this event, we also find that accelerated electrons can roughly account for the required thermal energy. The 6 June 2020 event demonstrates that STIX can detect nonthermal emission for GOES class B2 events that is nonetheless smaller than the background rate level. We demonstrate for the first time how detailed multi-instrument studies of solar flares can be performed with STIX.

The 3D fine structure of the solar atmosphere is still not fully understood as most of the available observations are taken from a single vantage point. The goal of the paper is to study the 3D distribution of small-scale brightening events ("campfires") discovered in the EUV quiet Sun by the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) aboard Solar Orbiter. We used a first commissioning data set acquired by the EUI's High Resolution EUV telescope on 30 May 2020 in the 174 {\AA} passband and we combined it with simultaneous data taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory in a similar 171 {\AA} passband. The two-pixel spatial resolution of the two telescopes is 400 km and 880 km, respectively, which is sufficient to identify the campfires in both data sets. The two spacecraft had an angular separation of around 31.5 degrees (essentially in heliographic longitude), which allowed for the 3D reconstruction of the campfire position. These observations represent the first time that stereoscopy was achieved for brightenings at such a small scale. Manual and automatic triangulation methods were used to characterize the campfire data. The height of the campfires is located between 1000 km and 5000 km above the photosphere and we find a good agreement between the manual and automatic methods. The internal structure of campfires is mostly unresolved by AIA; however, for a particularly large campfire, we were able to triangulate a few pixels, which are all in a narrow range between 2500 and 4500 km. The low height of EUI campfires suggests that they belong to the previously unresolved fine structure of the transition region and low corona of the quiet Sun. They are probably apexes of small-scale dynamic loops heated internally to coronal temperatures. This work demonstrates that high-resolution stereoscopy of structures in the solar atmosphere has become feasible.

The Solar Orbiter mission, with an orbit outside the Sun Earth line and leaving the ecliptic plane, opens up opportunities for the combined analysis of measurements obtained by solar imagers and spectrometers. For the first time, different space spectrometers will be located at wide angles to each other, allowing three-dimensional (3D) spectroscopy of the solar atmosphere. The aim of this work is to prepare the methodology to facilitate the reconstruction of 3D vector velocities from two stereoscopic LOS Doppler velocity measurements using the Spectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment (SPICE) onboard the Solar Orbiter and the near-Earth spectrometers, while widely separated in space. We develop the methodology using the libraries designed earlier for the STEREO mission but applied to spectroscopic data from the Hinode mission and the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We use well-known methods of static and dynamic solar rotation stereoscopy and the methods of EUV stereoscopic triangulation for optically thin coronal EUV plasma emissions. We develop new algorithms using analytical geometry in space to determine the 3D velocity in coronal loops. We demonstrate our approach with the reconstruction of 3D velocity vectors in plasma flows along "open" and "closed" magnetic loops. This technique will be applied to an actual situation of two spacecraft at different separations with spectrometers onboard (SPICE versus the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and Hinode imaging spectrometer) during the Solar Orbiternominal phase. We summarise how these observations can be coordinated., Comment: accepted to be published in Astronomy and Astrophysics

We create a continuous series of daily and monthly hemispheric sunspot numbers (HSNs) from 1874 to 2020, which will be continuously expanded in the future with the HSNs provided by SILSO. Based on the available daily measurements of hemispheric sunspot areas from 1874 to 2016 from Greenwich Royal Observatory and NOAA, we derive the relative fractions of the northern and southern activity. These fractions are applied to the international sunspot number (ISN) to derive the HSNs. This method and obtained data are validated against published HSNs for the period 1945--2020. We provide a continuous data series and catalogue of daily, monthly mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean HSNs for the time range 1874--2020 that are consistent with the newly calibrated ISN. Validation of the reconstructed HSNs against the direct data available since 1945 reveals a high level of consistency, with a correlation of r=0.94 (0.97) for the daily (monthly) data. The cumulative hemispheric asymmetries for cycles 12-24 give a mean value of 16%, with no obvious pattern in north-south predominance over the cycle evolution. The strongest asymmetry occurs for cycle no. 19, in which the northern hemisphere shows a cumulated predominance of 42%. The phase shift between the peaks of solar activity in the two hemispheres may be up to 28 months, with a mean absolute value of 16.4 months. The phase shifts reveal an overall asymmetry of the northern hemisphere reaching its cycle maximum earlier (in 10 out of 13 cases). Relating the ISN and HSN peak growth rates during the cycle rise phase with the cycle amplitude reveals higher correlations when considering the two hemispheres individually, with r = 0.9. Our findings demonstrate that empirical solar cycle prediction methods can be improved by investigating the solar cycle dynamics in terms of the hemispheric sunspot numbers., Comment: Accepted by Astron. Astrophys. 12 pages

We present a detailed analysis of an eruptive event that occurred on early 2019 March 8 in active region AR 12734, to which we refer as the International Women's day event. The event under study is intriguing in several aspects: 1) low-coronal eruptive signatures come in ''pairs'' (a double-peak flare, two coronal dimmings, and two EUV waves); 2) although the event is characterized by a complete chain of eruptive signatures, the corresponding coronagraphic signatures are weak; 3) although the source region of the eruption is located close to the center of the solar disc and the eruption is thus presumably Earth-directed, heliospheric signatures are very weak with little Earth-impact. We analyze a number of multi-spacecraft and multi-instrument (both remote-sensing and in situ) observations, including Soft X-ray, (extreme-) ultraviolet (E)UV), radio and white-light emission, as well as plasma, magnetic field and particle measurements. We employ 3D NLFF modeling to investigate the coronal magnetic field configuration in and around the active region, the GCS model to make a 3D reconstruction of the CME geometry and the 3D MHD numerical model EUHFORIA to model the background state of the heliosphere. Our results indicate two subsequent eruptions of two systems of sheared and twisted magnetic fields, which merge already in the upper corona and start to evolve further out as a single entity. The large-scale magnetic field significantly influences both, the early and the interplanetary evolution of the structure. During the first eruption the stability of the overlying field was disrupted which enabled the second eruption. We find that during the propagation in the interplanetary space the large-scale magnetic field, i.e. , the location of heliospheric current sheet between the AR and the Earth likely influences propagation and the evolution of the erupted structure(s)., Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures

We develop a reliable, fully automatic method for the detection of coronal holes, that provides consistent full-disk segmentation maps over the full solar cycle and can perform in real-time. We use a convolutional neural network to identify the boundaries of coronal holes from the seven EUV channels of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) as well as from line-of-sight magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). For our primary model (Coronal Hole RecOgnition Neural Network Over multi-Spectral-data; CHRONNOS) we use a progressively growing network approach that allows for efficient training, provides detailed segmentation maps and takes relations across the full solar-disk into account. We provide a thorough evaluation for performance, reliability and consistency by comparing the model results to an independent manually curated test set. Our model shows good agreement to the manual labels with an intersection-over-union (IoU) of 0.63. From the total of 261 coronal holes with an area $>1.5\cdot10^{10}$ km$^2$ identified during the time range 11/2010 - 12/2016, 98.1% were correctly detected by our model. The evaluation over almost the full solar cycle no. 24 shows that our model provides reliable coronal hole detections, independent of the level of solar activity. From the direct comparison over short time scales of days to weeks, we find that our model exceeds human performance in terms of consistency and reliability. In addition, we train our model to identify coronal holes from each channel separately and show that the neural network provides the best performance with the combined channel information, but that coronal hole segmentation maps can be also obtained solely from line-of-sight magnetograms.

The goal of this paper is to study the smallest brightening events observed in the EUV quiet Sun. We use commissioning data taken by the EUI instrument onboard the recently launched Solar Orbiter mission. On 2020 May 30, EUI was situated at 0.556AU from the Sun. Its HRIEUV telescope 17.4nm passband reached an exceptionally high two-pixel spatial resolution of 400km. The size and duration of small-scale structures is determined in the HRIEUV data, while their height is estimated from triangulation with the simultaneous SDO/AIA data. This is the first stereoscopy of small scale brightenings at high resolution. We observed small localised brightenings ("campfires") in a quiet Sun region with lengthscales between 400km and 4000km and durations between 10 and 200s. The smallest and weakest of these HRIEUV brightenings have not been observed before. Simultaneous HRILYA observations do not show localised brightening events, but the locations of the HRIEUV events correspond clearly to the chromospheric network. Comparison with simultaneous AIA images shows that most events can also be identified in the 17.1nm, 19.3nm, 21.1nm, and 30.4nm passbands of AIA, although they appear weaker and blurred. DEM analysis indicates coronal temperatures peaking at log(T)~6.1-6.15. We determined the height of a few campfires, which is between 1000 and 5000km above the photosphere. We conclude that "campfires" are mostly coronal in nature and are rooted in the magnetic flux concentrations of the chromospheric network. We interpret these events as a new extension to the flare/microflare/nanoflare family. Given their low height, the EUI "campfires" could be a new element of the fine structure of the transition region/low corona: apexes of small-scale loops that are internally heated to coronal temperatures., Comment: 12 pages, 14 figures

This study demonstrates that web-search traffic information, in particular, Google Trends data, is a credible novel source of high-quality and easy-to-access data for analyzing technology-based new ventures (TBNVs) growth trajectories. Utilizing the diverse sample of 241 US-based TBNVs, we comparatively analyze the relationship between companies' evolution curves represented by search activity on the one hand and by valuations achieved through rounds of venture investments on another. The results suggest that TBNV's growth dynamics are positively and strongly correlated with its web search traffic across the sample. This correlation is more robust when a company is a) more successful (in terms of valuation achieved) - especially if it is a "unicorn"; b) consumer-oriented (i.e., b2c); and 3) develops products in the form of a digital platform. Further analysis based on fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) shows that for the most successful companies ("unicorns") and consumer-oriented digital platforms (i.e., b2c digital platform companies) proposed approach may be extremely reliable, while for other high-growth TBNVs it is useful for analyzing their growth dynamics, albeit to a more limited degree. The proposed methodological approach opens a wide range of possibilities for analyzing, researching and predicting the growth of recently formed growth-oriented companies, in practice and academia., Comment: 38 pages, 10 figures, 9 tables, to be published in Technological Forecasting & Social Change journal

The solar radio flux at F10.7 cm and F30 cm is required by most models characterizing the state of the Earth's upper atmosphere, such as the thermosphere and ionosphere to specify satellite orbits, re-entry services, collision avoidance maneuvers and modeling of space debris evolution. We develop a method called RESONANCE ("Radio Emissions from the Sun: ONline ANalytical Computer-aided Estimator") for the prediction of the 13-month smoothed monthly mean F10.7 and F30 indices 1-24 months ahead. The prediction algorithm includes three steps. First, we apply a 13-month optimized running mean technique to effectively reduce the noise in the radio flux data. Second, we provide initial predictions of the F10.7 and F30 indices using the McNish-Lincoln method. Finally, we improve these initial predictions by developing an adaptive Kalman filter with the error statistics identification. The root-mean-square-error of predictions with lead times from 1 to 24 months is 5-27 sfu for the F10.7 and 3-16 sfu for F30 index, which statistically outperforms current algorithms in use. The proposed approach based on Kalman filter is universal and can be applied to improve the initial predictions of a process under study provided by any other forecasting method. Furthermore, we present a systematic evaluation of re-entry forecast as an application to test the performance of F10.7 predictions on past ESA re-entry campaigns for payloads, rocket bodies, and space debris that re-entered from June 2006 to June 2019. The test results demonstrate that the predictions obtained by RESONANCE in general also lead to improvements in the forecasts of re-entry epochs., Comment: 28 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series

EUV waves are large-scale disturbances in the solar corona initiated by coronal mass ejections. However, solar EUV images show only the wave fronts projections along the line-of-sight of the spacecraft. We perform 3D reconstructions of EUV wave front heights using multi-point observations from STEREO-A and STEREO-B, and study their evolution to properly estimate the EUV wave kinematics. We develop two different methods to solve the matching problem of the EUV wave crest on pairs of STEREO-A/-B images by combining epipolar geometry with the investigation of perturbation profiles. The proposed approaches are applicable at the early and maximum stage of the event when STEREO-A/-B see different facets of the EUV wave, but also at the later stage when the wave front becomes diffusive and faint. The techniques developed are demonstrated on two events observed at different separation of the STEREO spacecraft (42$^\circ$ and 91$^\circ$). For the 7 December 2007 event, we find that the emission of the EUV wave front mainly comes from a height range up to 90-104 Mm, decreasing later to 7-35 Mm. Including the varying height of the EUV wave front allows us to correct the wave kinematics for the projection effects, resulting in velocities in the range 217-266 km/s. For the 13 February 2009 event, the wave front height doubled from 54 to 93 Mm over 10 min, and the velocity derived is 205-208 km/s. In the two events under study, the corrected speeds differ by up to 25% from the uncorrected ones, depending on the wave front height evolution., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

In order to assure a stable series of recorded images of sufficient quality for further scientific analysis, an objective image quality measure is required. Especially when dealing with ground-based observations, which are subject to varying seeing conditions and clouds, the quality assessment has to take multiple effects into account and provide information about the affected regions. In this study, we develop a deep learning method that is suited to identify anomalies and provide an image quality assessment of solar full-disk H$\alpha$ filtergrams. The approach is based on the structural appearance and the true image distribution of high-quality observations. We employ a neural network with an encoder-decoder architecture to perform an identity transformation of selected high-quality observations. The encoder network is used to achieve a compressed representation of the input data, which is reconstructed to the original by the decoder. We use adversarial training to recover truncated information based on the high-quality image distribution. When images with reduced quality are transformed, the reconstruction of unknown features (e.g., clouds, contrails, partial occultation) shows deviations from the original. This difference is used to quantify the quality of the observations and to identify the affected regions. We apply our method to full-disk H$\alpha$ filtergrams from Kanzelh\"ohe Observatory recorded during 2012-2019 and demonstrate its capability to perform a reliable image quality assessment for various atmospheric conditions and instrumental effects, without the requirement of reference observations. Our quality metric achieves an accuracy of 98.5% in distinguishing observations with quality-degrading effects from clear observations and provides a continuous quality measure which is in good agreement with the human perception.

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are closely coupled through magnetic reconnection. CMEs are usually accelerated impulsively within the low solar corona, synchronized with the impulsive flare energy release. We investigate the dynamic evolution of a fast CME and its associated X2.8 flare occurring on 2013 May 13. The CME experiences two distinct phases of enhanced acceleration, an impulsive one with a peak value of ~5 km s$^{-2}$ followed by an extended phase with accelerations up to 0.7 km s$^{-2}$. The two-phase CME dynamics is associated with a two-episode flare energy release. While the first episode is consistent with the "standard" eruption of a magnetic flux rope, the second episode of flare energy release is initiated by the reconnection of a large-scale loop in the aftermath of the eruption and produces stronger nonthermal emission up to $\gamma$-rays. In addition, this long-duration flare reveals clear signs of ongoing magnetic reconnection during the decay phase, evidenced by extended HXR bursts with energies up to 100--300 keV and intermittent downflows of reconnected loops for >4 hours. The observations reveal that the two-step flare reconnection substantially contributes to the two-phase CME acceleration, and the impulsive CME acceleration precedes the most intense flare energy release. The implications of this non-standard flare/CME observation are discussed., Comment: accepted for publication in ApJL

We study the clustering properties of fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that occurred during solar cycles 23 and 24. We apply two methods: the Max spectrum method can detect the predominant clusters and the de-clustering threshold time method provides details on the typical clustering properties and time scales. Our analysis shows that during the different phases of solar cycles 23 and 24, CMEs with speed $\geq 1000\ km/s$ preferentially occur as isolated events and in clusters with on average two members. However, clusters with more members appear particularly during the maximum phases of the solar cycles. Over the total period and in the maximum phases of solar cycles 23 and 24, about 50% are isolated events, 18% (12%) occur in clusters with 2 (3) members, and another 20% in larger clusters $\geq 4$, whereas in solar minimum fast CMEs tend to occur more frequently as isolated events (62%). During different solar cycle phases, the typical de-clustering time scales of fast CMEs are $\tau_c=28-32\ hrs$, irrespective of the very different occurrence frequencies of CMEs during solar minimum and maximum. These findings suggest that $\tau_c$ for extreme events may reflect the characteristic energy build-up time for large flare and CME-prolific active ARs. Associating statistically the clustering properties of fast CMEs with the Disturbance storm index Dst at Earth suggests that fast CMEs occuring in clusters tend to produce larger geomagnetic storms than isolated fast CMEs. This may be related to CME-CME interaction producing a more complex and stronger interaction with the Earth magnetosphere., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

Context: Eruptive events such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares accelerate particles and generate shock waves which can arrive at Earth and can disturb the magnetosphere. Understanding the association between CMEs and CME-driven shocks is therefore highly important for space weather studies. Aims: We present a study of the CME/flare event associated with two type II bursts observed on September 27, 2012. The aim of the study is to understand the relationship between the observed CME and the two distinct shock wave signatures. Methods: The multi-wavelength study of the eruptive event (CME/flare) was complemented with radio triangulation of the associated radio emission and modelling of the CME and the shock wave employing MHD simulations. Results: We found that, although temporal association between the type II bursts and the CME is good, the low-frequency type II(LF-type II) burst occurs significantly higher in the corona than the CME and its relationship to the CME is not straightforward. The analysis of the EIT wave (coronal bright front) shows the fastest wave component to be in the southeast quadrant of the Sun. This is also the quadrant in which the source positions of the LF-type II were found to be located, probably resulting from the interaction between the shock wave and a streamer. Conclusions: The relationship between the CME/flare event and the shock wave signatures is discussed using the temporal association,as well as the spatial information of the radio emission. Further, we discuss the importance and possible effects of the frequently non-radial propagation of the shock wave., Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

One of the very common in situ signatures of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), as well as other interplanetary transients, are Forbush decreases (FDs), i.e. short-term reductions in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux. A two-step FD is often regarded as a textbook example, which presumably owes its specific morphology to the fact that the measuring instrument passed through the ICME head-on, encountering first the shock front (if developed), then the sheath and finally the CME magnetic structure. The interaction of GCRs and the shock/sheath region, as well as the CME magnetic structure, occurs all the way from Sun to Earth, therefore, FDs are expected to reflect the evolutionary properties of CMEs and their sheaths. We apply modelling to different ICME regions in order to obtain a generic two-step FD profile, which qualitatively agrees with our current observation-based understanding of FDs. We next adapt the models for energy dependence to enable comparison with different GCR measurement instruments (as they measure in different particle energy ranges). We test these modelling efforts against a set of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, using the Forbush decrease model for the expanding flux rope (ForbMod). We find a reasonable agreement of the ForbMod model for the GCR depression in the CME magnetic structure with multi-spacecraft measurements, indicating that modelled FDs reflect well the CME evolution., Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures, accepted in Solar Physics

We present a statistical analysis of 43 coronal dimming events, associated with Earth-directed CMEs that occurred during the period of quasi-quadrature of the SDO and STEREO satellites. We studied coronal dimmings that were observed above the limb by STEREO/EUVI and compared their properties with the mass and speed of the associated CMEs. The unique position of satellites allowed us to compare our findings with the results from Dissauer et al. (2018b, 2019), who studied the same events observed against the solar disk by SDO/AIA. Such statistics is done for the first time and confirms the relation of coronal dimmings and CME parameters for the off-limb viewpoint. The observations of dimming regions from different lines-of-sight reveal a similar decrease in the total EUV intensity ($c=0.60\pm0.14$). We find that the (projected) dimming areas are typically larger for off-limb observations (mean value of $1.24\pm1.23\times10^{11}$ km$^2$ against $3.51\pm0.71\times10^{10}$ km$^2$ for on-disk), with a correlation of $c=0.63\pm0.10$. This systematic difference can be explained by the (weaker) contributions to the dimming regions higher up in the corona, that cannot be detected in the on-disk observations. The off-limb dimming areas and brightnesses show very strong correlations with the CME mass ($c=0.82\pm0.06$ and $c=0.75\pm0.08$), whereas the dimming area and brightness change rate correlate with the CME speed ($c\sim0.6$). Our findings suggest that coronal dimmings have the potential to provide early estimates of mass and speed of Earth-directed CMEs, relevant for space weather forecasts, for satellite locations both at L1 and L5., Comment: 26 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

We use The Sun Watcher with Active Pixel System detector and Image Processing (SWAP) imager onboard the Project for Onboard Autonomy 2 (PROBA2) mission to study the evolution of large-scale EUV structures in the solar corona observed throughout Solar Cycle 24 (from 2010 to 2019). We discuss the evolution of the on-disk coronal features and at different heights above the solar surface based on EUV intensity changes. We also look at the evolution of the corona in equatorial and polar regions and compare them at different phases of the solar cycle, as well as with sunspot number evolution and with the PROBA2/Lyman-Alpha Radiometer (LYRA) signal. The main results are as follows: The three time series (SWAP on-disk average brightness, sunspot number and LYRA irradiance) are very well correlated, with correlation coefficients around 0.9. The average rotation rate of bright features at latitudes of +15, 0, and -15 degrees was around 15 degree/day throughout the period studied. A secondary peak in EUV averaged intensity at the Poles was observed on the descending phase of SC24. These peaks (at North and South poles respectively) seem to be associated with the start of the development of the (polar) coronal holes. Large-scale off-limb structures were visible from around March 2010 to around March 2016, meaning that they were absent at the minimum phase of solar activity. A fan at the North pole persisted for more than 11 Carrington rotations (February 2014 to March 2015), and it could be seen up to altitudes of 1.6 Rs.

In a thorough study, we investigate the origin of a remarkable plasma and magnetic field configuration observed in situ on June 22, 2011 near L1, which appears to be a magnetic ejecta (ME) and a shock signature engulfed by a solar wind high-speed stream (HSS). We identify the signatures as an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME), associated with a C7.7 flare on June 21, 2011, and its interaction with a HSS, which emanates from a coronal hole (CH) close to the launch site of the CME. The results indicate that the major interaction between the CME and the HSS starts at a height of 1.3 Rsun up to 3 Rsun. Over that distance range, the CME undergoes a strong north-eastward deflection of at least 30 degrees due to the open magnetic field configuration of the CH. We perform a comprehensive analysis for the CME-HSS event using multi-viewpoint data (from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatories, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics Observatory), and combined modeling efforts (nonlinear force-free field modeling, Graduated Cylindrical Shell CME modeling, and the Forecasting a CMEs Altered Trajectory ForeCAT model). We aim at better understanding its early evolution and interaction process as well as its interplanetary propagation and related in situ signatures, and finally the resulting impact on the Earth's magnetosphere., Comment: Accepted in Solar Physics on August 26, 2019

We report observations of energetic electron flux and Phase Space Density (PSD) to show that a relatively weak magnetic storm with $Sym-H_{min} \approx -50 $nT, resulted in a relativistic and ultra--relativistic electron enhancement of two orders of magnitude similar to the St. Patrick's event of 2015, an extreme storm with $Sym-H_{min} \approx -235 nT$. This enhancement appeared at energies up to $\approx 10$ MeV, lasted for at least 24 days and was not recorded in geosynchronous orbit where most space weather alert data are collected. By combined analysis of PSD radial profiles and Fokker--Planck simulation, we show that the enhancement of relativistic and ultra--relativistic electrons is caused by different mechanisms: first, chorus waves during the intense substorm injections of April 21--25 accelerate the seed electron population to relativistic energies and redistribute them while inward diffusion driven by Pc5 ULF waves further accelerates them to ultra--relativistic energies.

The X8.2 event of 10 September 2017 provides unique observations to study the genesis, magnetic morphology and impulsive dynamics of a very fast CME. Combining GOES-16/SUVI and SDO/AIA EUV imagery, we identify a hot ($T\approx 10-15$ MK) bright rim around a quickly expanding cavity, embedded inside a much larger CME shell ($T\approx 1-2$ MK). The CME shell develops from a dense set of large AR loops ($\gtrsim$0.5 $R_s$), and seamlessly evolves into the CME front observed in LASCO C2. The strong lateral overexpansion of the CME shell acts as a piston initiating the fast EUV wave. The hot cavity rim is demonstrated to be a manifestation of the dominantly poloidal flux and frozen-in plasma added to the rising flux rope by magnetic reconnection in the current sheet beneath. The same structure is later observed as the core of the white light CME, challenging the traditional interpretation of the CME three-part morphology. The large amount of added magnetic flux suggested by these observations explains the extreme accelerations of the radial and lateral expansion of the CME shell and cavity, all reaching values of $5 - 10$ km s$^{-2}$. The acceleration peaks occur simultaneously with the first RHESSI $100-300$ keV hard X-ray burst of the associated flare, further underlining the importance of the reconnection process for the impulsive CME evolution. Finally, the much higher radial propagation speed of the flux rope in relation to the CME shell causes a distinct deformation of the white light CME front and shock., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

We present a statistical study of 62 coronal dimming events associated with Earth-directed CMEs during the quasi-quadrature period of STEREO and SDO. This unique setting allows us to study both phenomena in great detail and compare characteristic quantities statistically. Coronal dimmings are observed on-disk by SDO/AIA and HMI, while the CME kinematics during the impulsive acceleration phase is studied close to the limb with STEREO/EUVI and COR, minimizing projection effects. The dimming area, its total unsigned magnetic flux and its total brightness, reflecting properties of the total dimming region at its final extent, show the highest correlations with the CME mass ($c\sim0.6-0.7$). Their corresponding time derivatives, describing the dynamics of the dimming evolution, show the strongest correlations with the CME peak velocity ($c\sim 0.6$). The highest correlation of $c=0.68\pm0.08$ is found with the mean intensity of dimmings, indicating that the lower the CME starts in the corona, the faster it propagates. No significant correlation between dimming parameters and the CME acceleration was found. However, for events where high-cadence STEREO observations were available, the mean unsigned magnetic field density in the dimming regions tends to be positively correlated with the CME peak acceleration ($c=0.42\pm0.20$). This suggests that stronger magnetic fields result in higher Lorentz forces providing stronger driving force for the CME acceleration. Specific coronal dimming parameters correlate with both, CME and flare quantities providing further evidence for the flare-CME feedback relationship. For events in which the CME occurs together with a flare, coronal dimmings statistically reflect the properties of both phenomena., Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, 1 table, submitted to ApJ

Coronal dimmings, localized regions of reduced emission in the EUV and soft X-rays, are interpreted as density depletions due to mass loss during the CME expansion. They contain crucial information on the early evolution of CMEs low in the corona. For 62 dimming events, characteristic parameters are derived, statistically analyzed and compared with basic flare quantities. On average, coronal dimmings have a size of $2.15\times10^{10}$ km$^{2}$, contain a total unsigned magnetic flux of $1.75\times10^{21}$ Mx, and show a total brightness decrease of $-1.91\times10^{6}$ DN, which results in a relative decrease of $\sim$60% compared to the pre-eruption intensity level. Their main evacuation phase lasts for $\sim$50 minutes. The dimming area, the total dimming brightness, and the total unsigned magnetic flux show the highest correlation with the flare SXR fluence ($c\gtrsim0.7$). Their corresponding time derivatives, describing the dimming dynamics, strongly correlate with the GOES flare class ($c\gtrsim 0.6$). For 60% of the events we identified core dimmings, i.e. signatures of an erupting flux rope. They contain 20% of the magnetic flux covering only 5% of the total dimming area. Secondary dimmings map overlying fields that are stretched during the eruption and closed down by magnetic reconnection, thus adding flux to the erupting flux rope via magnetic reconnection. This interpretation is supported by the strong correlation between the magnetic fluxes of secondary dimmings and flare reconnection fluxes ($c=0.63\pm0.08$), the balance between positive and negative magnetic fluxes ($c=0.83\pm0.04$) within the total dimmings and the fact that for strong flares ($>$M1.0) the reconnection and secondary dimming fluxes are roughly equal., Comment: 24 pages, 21 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011--2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by $Dst$ index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets., Comment: 22 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Coronal dimmings are distinct phenomena associated to coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The study of coronal dimmings and the extraction of their characteristic parameters helps us to obtain additional information of CMEs, especially on the initiation and early evolution of Earth-directed CMEs. We present a new approach to detect coronal dimming regions based on a thresholding technique applied on logarithmic base-ratio images. Characteristic dimming parameters describing the dynamics, morphology, magnetic properties and the brightness of coronal dimming regions are extracted by cumulatively summing newly dimmed pixels over time. It is also demonstrated how core dimming regions are identified as a subset of the overall identified dimming region. We successfully apply our method to two well-observed coronal dimming events. For both events the core dimming regions are identified and the spatial evolution of the dimming area reveals the expansion of the dimming region around these footpoints. We also show that in the early impulsive phase of the dimming expansion the total unsigned magnetic flux involved in the dimming regions is balanced and that up to 30% of this flux results from the localized core dimming regions. Furthermore, the onset in the profile of the area growth rate is co-temporal with the start of the associated flares and in one case also with the fast rise of the CME, indicating a strong relationship of coronal dimmings with both flare and CMEs., Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJ