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Comparing parasite genotypes to inform parasitic disease outbreak investigations involves computation of genetic distances that are typically analyzed by hierarchical clustering to identify related isolates, indicating a common source. A limitation of hierarchical clustering is that hierarchical clusters are not discrete; they are nested. Consequently, small groups of similar isolates exist within larger groups that get progressively larger as relationships become increasingly distant. Investigators must dissect hierarchical trees at a partition number ensuring grouped isolates belong to the same strain; a process typically performed subjectively, introducing bias into resultant groupings. We describe an unbiased, probabilistic framework for partition number selection that ensures partitions comprise isolates that are statistically likely to belong to the same strain. We computed distances and established a normalized distribution of background distances that we used to demarcate a threshold below which the closeness of relationships is unlikely to be random. Distances are hierarchically clustered and the dendrogram dissected at a partition number where most within-partition distances fall below the threshold. We evaluated this framework by partitioning 1,137 clustered Cyclospora cayetanensis genotypes, including 552 isolates epidemiologically linked to various outbreaks. The framework was 91% sensitive and 100% specific in assigning epidemiologically linked isolates to the same partition.

Background Plasmodium falciparum malaria is associated with anaemia-related morbidity, attributable to host, parasite and drug factors. We quantified the haematological response following treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria to identify the factors associated with malarial anaemia. Methods Individual patient data from eligible antimalarial efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, available through the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository prior to August 2015, were pooled using standardised methodology. The haematological response over time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with nonlinear terms for time, and the model was then used to estimate the mean haemoglobin at day of nadir and day 7. Multivariable logistic regression quantified risk factors for moderately severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 7 g/dL) at day 0, day 3 and day 7 as well as a fractional fall ≥ 25% at day 3 and day 7. Results A total of 70,226 patients, recruited into 200 studies between 1991 and 2013, were included in the analysis: 50,859 (72.4%) enrolled in Africa, 18,451 (26.3%) in Asia and 916 (1.3%) in South America. The median haemoglobin concentration at presentation was 9.9 g/dL (range 5.0–19.7 g/dL) in Africa, 11.6 g/dL (range 5.0–20.0 g/dL) in Asia and 12.3 g/dL (range 6.9–17.9 g/dL) in South America. Moderately severe anaemia (Hb < 7g/dl) was present in 8.4% (4284/50,859) of patients from Africa, 3.3% (606/18,451) from Asia and 0.1% (1/916) from South America. The nadir haemoglobin occurred on day 2 post treatment with a mean fall from baseline of 0.57 g/dL in Africa and 1.13 g/dL in Asia. Independent risk factors for moderately severe anaemia on day 7, in both Africa and Asia, included moderately severe anaemia at baseline (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 16.10 and AOR = 23.00, respectively), young age (age < 1 compared to ≥ 12 years AOR = 12.81 and AOR = 6.79, respectively), high parasitaemia (AOR = 1.78 and AOR = 1.58, respectively) and delayed parasite clearance (AOR = 2.44 and AOR = 2.59, respectively). In Asia, patients treated with an artemisinin-based regimen were at significantly greater risk of moderately severe anaemia on day 7 compared to those treated with a non-artemisinin-based regimen (AOR = 2.06 [95%CI 1.39–3.05], p < 0.001). Conclusions In patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, the nadir haemoglobin occurs 2 days after starting treatment. Although artemisinin-based treatments increase the rate of parasite clearance, in Asia they are associated with a greater risk of anaemia during recovery.

Immunoglobulin (Ig) production during and after infection with Plasmodium parasites is one of the greatest adaptive immune defenses the human host has against this parasite. Infection with P. falciparum has been shown to induce different B cell maturation responses dependent upon the age of the patient, number of previous exposures, and severity of the disease. Described here are dynamics of Ig responses to a panel of 32 P. falciparum antigens by patients followed for 42 days and classified individuals as showing characteristics of an apparent first P. falciparum infection (naïve) or a repeat exposure (non-naïve). Six parameters were modeled to characterize the dynamics of IgM, IgG1, IgG3, and IgA for these two exposure groups with differences assessed among Ig isotypes/subclasses and unique antigens. Naïve patients had significantly longer periods of time to reach peak Ig titer (range 4–7 days longer) and lower maximum Ig titers when compared with non-naïve patients. Modeled time to seronegativity was significantly higher in non-naïve patients for IgM and IgA, but not for the two IgG subclasses. IgG1 responses to Rh2030, HSP40, and PfAMA1 were at the highest levels for non-naïve participants and may be used to predict previous or nascent exposure by themselves. The analyses presented here demonstrate the differences in the development of the Ig response to P. falciparum if the infection represents a boosting response or a primary exposure. Consistency in Ig isotype/subclasses estimates and specific data for P. falciparum antigens can better guide interpretation of seroepidemiological data among symptomatic persons.

Background The duration of trial follow-up affects the ability to detect recrudescent infections following anti-malarial treatment. The aim of this study was to explore the proportions of recrudescent parasitaemia as ascribed by genotyping captured at various follow-up time-points in treatment efficacy trials for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Methods Individual patient data from 83 anti-malarial efficacy studies collated in the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) repository with at least 28 days follow-up were available. The temporal and cumulative distributions of recrudescence were characterized using a Cox regression model with shared frailty on study-sites. Fractional polynomials were used to capture non-linear instantaneous hazard. The area under the density curve (AUC) of the constructed distribution was used to estimate the optimal follow-up period for capturing a P. falciparum malaria recrudescence. Simulation studies were conducted based on the constructed distributions to quantify the absolute overestimation in efficacy due to sub-optimal follow-up. Results Overall, 3703 recurrent infections were detected in 60 studies conducted in Africa (15,512 children aged 48 mg/kg total piperaquine (PIP) dose and 9% [95% CI 0–22%] in those treated with ≤ 48 mg/kg PIP dose. In absolute terms, the simulation study found that trials limited to 28 days follow-up following AL underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.8 percentage points compared to day 63 estimates and those limited to 42 days following DP underestimated the risk of recrudescence by a median of 2.0 percentage points compared to day 42 estimates. The analysis was limited by few clinical trials following patients for longer than 42 days (9 out of 83 trials) and the imprecision of PCR genotyping which overcalls recrudescence in areas of higher transmission biasing the later distribution. Conclusions Restricting follow-up of clinical efficacy trials to day 28 for AL and day 42 for DP will miss a proportion of late recrudescent treatment failures but will have a modest impact in derived efficacy. The results highlight that as genotyping methods improve consideration should be given for trials with longer duration of follow-up to detect early indications of emerging drug resistance.

Additional file 1. Selection of samples for pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genotyping by ratio of pAldolase to HRP2.The vertical hashed red line designates the threshold for antigen positivity signal for pAldolase antigen and the horizontal hashed red line designates the threshold for antigen positivity signal for HRP2. The region shaded in orange denotes values where DBS samples were positive for pAldolase antigen, but negative for HRP2 antigen.

Additional file 1. Methods for sample size determination and sampling weights.

Background The Diamond Princess cruise ship was the site of a large outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Of 437 Americans and their travel companions on the ship, 114 (26%) tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods We interviewed 229 American passengers and crew after disembarkation following a ship-based quarantine to identify risk factors for infection and characterize transmission onboard the ship. Results The attack rate for passengers in single-person cabins or without infected cabinmates was 18% (58/329), compared with 63% (27/43) for those sharing a cabin with an asymptomatic infected cabinmate, and 81% (25/31) for those with a symptomatic infected cabinmate. Whole genome sequences from specimens from passengers who shared cabins clustered together. Of 66 SARS-CoV-2-positive American travelers with complete symptom information, 14 (21%) were asymptomatic while on the ship. Among SARS-CoV-2-positive Americans, 10 (9%) required intensive care, of whom 7 were ≥70 years. Conclusion Our findings highlight the high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission on cruise ships. High rates of SARS-CoV-2 positivity in cabinmates of individuals with asymptomatic infections suggest that triage by symptom status in shared quarters is insufficient to halt transmission. A high rate of intensive care unit admission among older individuals complicates the prospect of future cruise travel during the pandemic, given typical cruise passenger demographics. The magnitude and severe outcomes of this outbreak were major factors contributing to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s decision to halt cruise ship travel in U.S. waters in March 2020.