455 results on '"Plavšić, Jasna"'
Search Results
2. Economic assessment of nature-based solutions to reduce flood risk and enhance co-benefits
- Author
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Ruangpan, Laddaporn, Vojinovic, Zoran, Plavšić, Jasna, Curran, Alex, Rosic, Nikola, Pudar, Ranko, Savic, Dragan, and Brdjanovic, Damir
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- 2024
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3. Benefits of Green Infrastructure for Flood Mitigation in Small Rural Watersheds—Case Study of the Tamnava River in Serbia
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Pudar, Ranko S., Plavšić, Jasna, Kostianoy, Andrey, Series Editor, Carpenter, Angela, Editorial Board Member, Younos, Tamim, Editorial Board Member, Scozzari, Andrea, Editorial Board Member, Vignudelli, Stefano, Editorial Board Member, Kouraev, Alexei, Editorial Board Member, Gourbesville, Philippe, editor, and Caignaert, Guy, editor
- Published
- 2022
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4. Nature based solutions as the sustainable measures for hydrometeorological risk reduction: The Tamnava river case study
- Author
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Plavšić Jasna, Pudar Ranko, and Pavlović Dragutin
- Subjects
flood risk ,flood mitigation ,nature-based solutions ,tamnava river ,Military Science ,Social sciences (General) ,H1-99 - Abstract
This paper presents briefly a holistic approach to reducing flood risks using the nature-based solutions. This approach takes into account not only the reduced risk as the primary goal of flood mitigation, but also involves other goals such as the protection of the environment, human well-being, socio-economic goals etc. The Tamnava River basin is used as a pilot case to demonstrate the methodology of such an approach, resulting from the work within the RECONECT project from the EU Horizon 2020 programme. The paper presents preliminary results for the Tamnava River basin by considering several scenarios for flood mitigation measures and potential benefits from these measures in flood risk reduction and in improved ecosystem services in the basin. The methodology includes monetary valuation of the effects of the proposed flood mitigation measures in terms of the avoided damages, as well as of the secondary benefits from the erosion control by additional afforestation. The latter also provides basis for preliminary valuation of all relevant ecosystem services in the basin, thus indicating the value of the basin's natural capital. Such an evaluation is important for the decision-making process on possible flood mitigation strategies.
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Benefits of Green Infrastructure for Flood Mitigation in Small Rural Watersheds—Case Study of the Tamnava River in Serbia
- Author
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Pudar, Ranko S., primary and Plavšić, Jasna, additional
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- 2022
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6. Planning and Suitability Assessment of Large-scale Nature-based Solutions for Flood-risk Reduction
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Mubeen, Adam, Ruangpan, Laddaporn, Vojinovic, Zoran, Sanchez Torrez, Arlex, and Plavšić, Jasna
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- 2021
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7. Economic assessment of nature-based solutions to reduce flood risk and enhance co-benefits
- Author
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Ruangpan, L. (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author), Plavšić, Jasna (author), Curran, Alex (author), Rosic, Nikola (author), Pudar, Ranko (author), Savic, Dragan (author), Brdjanovic, Damir (author), Ruangpan, L. (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author), Plavšić, Jasna (author), Curran, Alex (author), Rosic, Nikola (author), Pudar, Ranko (author), Savic, Dragan (author), and Brdjanovic, Damir (author)
- Abstract
Flooding is expected to increase due to climate change, urbanisation, and land use change. To address this issue, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) are often adopted as innovative and sustainable flood risk management methods. Besides the flood risk reduction benefits, NBSs offer co-benefits for the environment and society. However, these co-benefits are rarely considered in flood risk management due to the inherent complexities of incorporating them into economic assessments. This research addresses this gap by developing a comprehensive methodology that integrates the monetary analysis of co-benefits with flood risk reduction in economic assessments. In doing so, it aspires to provide a more holistic view of the impact of NBS in flood risk management. The assessment employs a framework based on life-cycle cost-benefit analysis, offering a systematic and transparent assessment of both costs and benefits over time supported by key indicators like net present value and benefit cost ratio. The methodology has been applied to the Tamnava basin in Serbia, where significant flooding occurred in 2014 and 2020. The methodology offers valuable insights for practitioners, researchers, and planners seeking to assess the co-benefits of NBS and integrate them into economic assessments. The results show that when considering flood risk reduction alone, all considered measures have higher costs than the benefits derived from avoiding flood damage. However, when incorporating co-benefits, several NBS have a net positive economic impact, including afforestation/reforestation and retention ponds with cost-benefit ratios of 3.5 and 5.6 respectively. This suggests that incorporating co-benefits into economic assessments can significantly increase the overall economic efficiency and viability of NBS., BT/Environmental Biotechnology
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- 2024
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8. The 3DNet-Catch hydrologic model: Development and evaluation
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Todorović, Andrijana, Stanić, Miloš, Vasilić, Željko, and Plavšić, Jasna
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- 2019
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9. Service Life Design of Concrete Structures Made of High-Volume Limestone Powder Concrete—Case of the Carbonation-Induced Corrosion
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Carević, Vedran, primary, Marinković, Snežana, additional, Plavšić, Jasna, additional, and Radović, Andrija, additional
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- 2023
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10. Rainfall-runoff simulations in the Lukovska River Basin with the HEC-HMS model
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Erić Ranka, Todorović Andrijana, Plavšić Jasna, and Đukić Vesna
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calibration ,flood events ,hydrologic models transferability ,HEC-HMS ,event-based modeling ,Forestry ,SD1-669.5 - Abstract
Hydrologic models are important for effective water resources management at a basin level. This paper describes an application of the HEC-HMS hydrologic model for simulations of flood hydrographs in the Lukovska River basin. Five flood events observed at the Merćez stream gauge were available for modelling purposes. These events are from two distinct periods and two seasons with different prevailing runoff generation mechanisms. Hence the events are assigned to either “present” or “past”, and “spring” or “summer” group. The optimal parameter sets of each group are obtained by averaging the optimal parameters for individual events within the group. To assess model transferability, its applicability for simulation of flood events which are not considered in the model calibration, a cross-validation is performed. The results indicate that model parameters vary across the events, and that parameter transfer generally leads to considerable errors in hydrograph peaks and volumes, with the exception of simulation of summer events with “spring” parameters. Based on these results, recommendations for event-based modeling are given.
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- 2019
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11. Detecting Annual and Seasonal Hydrological Change Using Marginal Distributions of Daily Flows
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Blagojević, Borislava, primary, Mihailović, Vladislava, additional, Bogojević, Aleksandar, additional, and Plavšić, Jasna, additional
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- 2023
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12. A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates
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Stojković, Milan, Kostić, Srđan, Plavšić, Jasna, and Prohaska, Stevan
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- 2017
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13. Annual and seasonal discharge prediction in the middle Danube River basin based on a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity, Stochasticity) methodology
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Stojković Milan, Plavšić Jasna, and Prohaska Stevan
- Subjects
stochastic modelling ,annual and seasonal hydrological predictions ,tips method ,the middle danube river basin ,Hydraulic engineering ,TC1-978 - Abstract
The short-term predictions of annual and seasonal discharge derived by a modified TIPS (Tendency, Intermittency, Periodicity and Stochasticity) methodology are presented in this paper. The TIPS method (Yevjevich, 1984) is modified in such a way that annual time scale is used instead of daily. The reason of extracting a seasonal component from discharge time series represents an attempt to identify the long-term stochastic behaviour. The methodology is applied for modelling annual discharges at six gauging stations in the middle Danube River basin using the observed data in the common period from 1931 to 2012. The model performance measures suggest that the modelled time series are matched reasonably well. The model is then used for the short-time predictions for three annual step ahead (2013–2015). The annual discharge predictions of larger river basins for moderate hydrological conditions show reasonable matching with records expressed as the relative error from −8% to +3%. Irrespective of this, wet and dry periods for the aforementioned river basins show significant departures from annual observations. Also, the smaller river basins display greater deviations up to 26% of the observed annual discharges, whereas the accuracy of annual predictions do not strictly depend on the prevailing hydrological conditions.
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- 2017
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14. Procjena efekata primjene rješenja bliskih prirodi (NBS) za umanjenje rizika od poplava u slivu rijeke Vrbanje
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Sudar, Tamara, Blagojević, Vujadin, Trifković, Milica, Sudar, Nedeljko, Plavšić, Jasna, Sudar, Tamara, Blagojević, Vujadin, Trifković, Milica, Sudar, Nedeljko, and Plavšić, Jasna
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- 2023
15. Combining machine learning and spatial data processing techniques for allocation of large-scale nature-based solutions
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Gutierrez Caloir, Beatriz Emma, Abebe, Yared Abayneh, Vojinovic, Zoran, Sanchez, Arlex, Mubeen, Adam, Ruangpan, Laddaporn, Manojlovic, Natasa, Plavšić, Jasna, Đorđević, Slobodan, Gutierrez Caloir, Beatriz Emma, Abebe, Yared Abayneh, Vojinovic, Zoran, Sanchez, Arlex, Mubeen, Adam, Ruangpan, Laddaporn, Manojlovic, Natasa, Plavšić, Jasna, and Đorđević, Slobodan
- Abstract
The escalating impacts of climate change trigger the necessity to deal with hydro-meteorological hazards. Nature-based solutions (NBSs) seem to be a suitable response, integrating the hydrology, geomorphology, hydraulic, and ecological dynamics. While there are some methods and tools for suitability mapping of small-scale NBSs, literature concerning the spatial allocation of large-scale NBSs is still lacking. The present work aims to develop new toolboxes and enhance an existing methodology by developing spatial analysis tools within a geographic information system (GIS) environment to allocate large-scale NBSs based on a multi-criteria algorithm. The methodologies combine machine learning spatial data processing techniques and hydrodynamic modelling for allocation of large-scale NBSs. The case studies concern selected areas in the Netherlands, Serbia, and Bolivia, focusing on three large-scale NBS: rainwater harvesting, wetland restoration, and natural riverbank stabilisation. Information available from the EC H2020 RECONECT project as well as other available data for the specific study areas was used. The research highlights the significance of incorporating machine learning, GIS, and remote sensing techniques for the suitable allocation of large-scale NBSs. The findings may offer new insights for decision-makers and other stakeholders involved in future sustainable environmental planning and climate change adaptation.
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- 2023
16. Analiza efekata prirodom inspirisanih rešenja na ugroženost grada Krupnja od poplava
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Vićanović, Jovana, Todorović, Andrijana, Rosić, Nikola, Plavšić, Jasna, Vićanović, Jovana, Todorović, Andrijana, Rosić, Nikola, and Plavšić, Jasna
- Abstract
U ovom radu se razmatra primena prirodom inspirisanih rešenja na slivu reke Likodre uzvodno od Krupnja radi ublažavanja ugroženosti od bujičnih poplava i erozije na slivu. Razmatrane mere uključuju čeone retenzije, buji-čne pregrade, konzervaciju zemljišta, pošumljavanje sliva i melioraciju postojećih šuma. Uticaj navedenih mera je ispitan kroz hidrološki model sliva formiran pomoću programa HEC-HMS. Poređenje rezultata dobijenih sa merama i bez njih pokazalo je da svaka od mera ima pozitivne efekte na smanjenje ugroženosti od poplava i erozije na slivu, pri čemu su najefikasnije čeone retenzije i melioracija šuma.
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- 2023
17. Service Life Design of Concrete Structures Made of High-Volume Limestone Powder Concrete—Case of the Carbonation-Induced Corrosion
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Carević, Vedran, Marinković, Snežana, Plavšić, Jasna, Radović, Andrija, Carević, Vedran, Marinković, Snežana, Plavšić, Jasna, and Radović, Andrija
- Abstract
One of the paths to CO2 emissions reduction in the concrete industry is to use low-clinker cements, providing at the same time the performance of concrete that is adequate for application in concrete structures. This paper explores the impact of the clinker replacement with high amounts of limestone powder (21–70% in the powder phase) on concrete carbonation resistance. To quantify this impact, the empirical relationship between the carbonation resistance and the compressive strength of the high-volume limestone powder concrete (HVLPC) was established. For that pur-pose, the regression analysis was applied on the experimental results collected from the published research. The service life analysis based on the full probabilistic approach was performed using the fib Model Code 2010 prediction model and proposed empirical relationship. The first-order relia-bility method (FORM) was applied to solve the limit state function of reinforcement depassivation with a reliability index equal to 1.3. The obtained minimum concrete cover depths were 40–110% higher compared to those prescribed in the current European standard EN 1992-1-1:2004 for in-dicative strength classes. Based on the full probabilistic analysis, recommended cover depths are given for all carbonation exposure classes, commonly applied concrete strength classes, and service lives of 50 and 100 years.
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- 2023
18. Sveobuhvatna analiza malih voda na širem sektoru ušća reke Drine u reku Savu
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Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Ćatović, Samir, Bartoš DIvac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Ilić, Aleksandra, Petković, Dejan, Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Ćatović, Samir, Bartoš DIvac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Ilić, Aleksandra, and Petković, Dejan
- Abstract
Ideja ovoga rada je da prikaže osnovne rezultate sprovedene sveobuhvatne analize malih voda Save i Drine u zoni ušća Drine. U radu se prikazuju kvantitativne karakteristike malih voda koje se najčešće koriste kao podloga pri projektovanju većine vodoprivrednih i hidrotehničkih objekata. Posebno je detaljno analizirana dužina malovodnih perioda ispod repernih protoka - protoka određenih za izabrana trajanja sa krivih trajanja srednjih dnevnih protoka. Primenjen je novi pristup koji, pored klasične probabilističke analize minimalnih godišnjih i minimalnih srednjih mesečnih protoka, obuhvata i analizu dužina neprekidnih malovodnih perioda sa protocima manjim od protoka karakterističih trajanja, njihovu unutargodišnju raspodelu i zastupljenost. Bazni podaci koji su korišćeni za proračun malih voda su zvanični podaci Državnog hidrometeorološkog zavoda Hrvatske iz Zagreba (DHMZ) i Republičkog hidrometeorološkog zavoda Srbije iz Beograda (RHMZ) na hidrološkim stanicama (HS) Županja i Sremska Mitrovica na reci Savi i Radalj na reci Drini.
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- 2023
19. Detecting annual and seasonal hydrological change using marginal distributions of daily flows
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Blagojević, Borislava, Mihailović, Vladislava, Bogojević, Aleksandar, Plavšić, Jasna, Blagojević, Borislava, Mihailović, Vladislava, Bogojević, Aleksandar, and Plavšić, Jasna
- Abstract
Changes in the hydrological regime are widely investigated using a variety of approaches. In this study, we assess changes in annual and seasonal flow characteristics based on a probabilistic representation of the seasonal runoff regime at the daily time scale. The probabilistic seasonal runoff pattern is constructed by determining quantiles from marginal distributions of daily flows for each day within the year. By applying Fourier transformation on the statistics of the daily flow partial series, we obtain smooth periodical functions of distribution parameters over the year and consequently of the quantiles. The main findings are based on the comparison of the dry, average, and wet hydrologic condition zones as defined by the daily flow quantiles of selected probabilities. This analysis was conducted for ten catchments in Serbia by considering changes between two 30-year nonoverlapping periods, 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. It was found that the relative change in runoff volume is the most pronounced in the extreme dry condition zone in the winter season (−33% to 34%). The annual time shift is the largest in the dry and average condition zones, ranging from −11 to 12 days. The applied methodology is not only applicable to the detection of hydrologic change, but could also be used in operational hydrology and extreme flow studies via drought indices such as the Standardized Streamflow Index.
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- 2023
20. Model-based assessment of the effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions in flood risk reduction: The case of Tamnava River Basin in Serbia
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Ruangpan, Laddaporn, primary, Plavšić, Jasna, additional, Rosic, Nikola, additional, Curran, Alex, additional, Pudar, Ranko, additional, and Vojinovic, Zoran, additional
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- 2023
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21. Природи блиска решења као одрживе мере за смањење хидрометеоролошких ризика – пример слива реке Тамнаве
- Author
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Plavšić, Jasna, Pudar, Ranko, and Pavlović, Dragutin
- Subjects
Tamnava River ,flood mitigation ,ризик ,поплаве ,природи блиска решења ,flood risk ,река Тамнава ,nature based solutions ,мере заштите од поплава - Abstract
У раду се даје кратак приказ холистичког приступа смањењу ризика од поплава помоћу природи блиских решења. Овакав приступ узима у обзир не само смањење ризика као основни циљ мера заштите од поплава, већ и друге циљеве заједнице као што су заштита животне средине, добробит и здравље људи и друштвено-економски развој. На примеру слива реке Тамнаве, а као резултат истраживачког рада у међународном пројекту RECONECT у оквиру H2020 програма ЕУ, приказују се прелиминарни резултати примене овог концепта уз разматрање неколико сценарија могућих мера заштите и користи које оне могу донети у погледу смањења ризика од поплава и унапређења екосистемских услуга на сливу. Приказана методологија укључује новчано вредновање ефеката мера са гледишта смањења ризика (избегнутих штета), као секундарних ефеката од смањења ерозије додатним пошумљавањем. Ово друго вредновање је такође искоришћено за прелиминарну процену свих релевантних екосистемских услуга на сливу, што указује на вредност природног капитала овог слива. Овакве процене су важне за процес доношења одлука о мерама заштите од поплава. This paper presents briefly a holistic approach to reducing flood risks using the nature-based solutions. This approach takes into account not only the reduced risk as the primary goal of flood mitigation, but also involves other goals such as the protection of the environment, human well-being, socio-economic goals etc. The Tamnava River basin is used as a pilot case to demonstrate the methodology of such an approach, resulting from the work within the RECONECT project from the EU Horizon 2020 programme. The paper presents preliminary results for the Tamnava River basin by considering several scenarios for flood mitigation measures and potential benefits from these measures in flood risk reduction and in improved ecosystem services in the basin. The methodology includes monetary valuation of the effects of the proposed flood mitigation measures in terms of the avoided damages, as well as of the secondary benefits from the erosion control by additional afforestation. The latter also provides basis for preliminary valuation of all relevant ecosystem services in the basin, thus indicating the value of the basin’s natural capital. Such an evaluation is important for the decision-making process on possible flood mitigation strategies. Рад је добио Награду за најбољи научни рад са Прве меморијалне научно-стручне конференције ,,Предраг Марић". Конференција је одржана 11.2.2022. године. у просторијама Института за међународну политику и привреду, Македонска 25, у Београду. Годишњак Факултета безбедности 2022 (Faculty of Security Studies Annual), издавач Факултет безбедности Универзитета у Београду; адреса - Господара Вучића 50, Београд; обим 434 стране, штампани тираж 100 примерака, припрема и штампа ,,Чигоја штампа". Категорија часописа - M52. UDK 556.166(282)(497.11) COBISS.SR-ID 112460809 https://aseestant.ceon.rs/index.php/fb_godisnjak/article/view/37341/22674
- Published
- 2023
22. A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia
- Author
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Stojković, Milan, Kostić, Srđan, Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, and Tripković, Vesna
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- 2017
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23. Stochastic structure of annual discharges of large European rivers
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Stojković Milan, Prohaska Stevan, and Plavšić Jasna
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stochastic model ,flow simulation ,long-term periodicity ,single bootstrap model sbm ,Hydraulic engineering ,TC1-978 - Abstract
Water resource has become a guarantee for sustainable development on both local and global scales. Exploiting water resources involves development of hydrological models for water management planning. In this paper we present a new stochastic model for generation of mean annul flows. The model is based on historical characteristics of time series of annual flows and consists of the trend component, long-term periodic component and stochastic component. The rest of specified components are model errors which are represented as a random time series. The random time series is generated by the single bootstrap model (SBM). Stochastic ensemble of error terms at the single hydrological station is formed using the SBM method. The ultimate stochastic model gives solutions of annual flows and presents a useful tool for integrated river basin planning and water management studies. The model is applied for ten large European rivers with long observed period. Validation of model results suggests that the stochastic flows simulated by the model can be used for hydrological simulations in river basins.
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- 2015
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24. Consequences of Non Planned Urban Development During Turbulent Times in Serbia — Case Study of Suburb Kumodraz Watershed in Belgrade
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Despotovic, Jovan, Plavšic, Jasna, Djukic, Aleksandar, Jacimovic, Nenad, Hlavinek, Petr, editor, Popovska, Cvetanka, editor, Marsalek, Jiri, editor, Mahrikova, Ivana, editor, and Kukharchyk, Tamara, editor
- Published
- 2009
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25. Peaks over threshold method: One stochastic model for flood volumes
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Pavlović Dragutin, Vukmirović Vojislav, Plavšić Jasna, and Despotović Jovan
- Subjects
POT method ,flood volumes ,stochastic model ,Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) ,TA1-2040 - Abstract
Peaks-over-threshold method (POT) is the way for analysis of the stochastic structure of extreme hydrological events. For a chosen base flow and for characteristic value obtained form partial hydrographs, the POT method encompasses detection of discrete probability distribution of number of events in chosen time interval and continuous distribution of the exceedance values (peaks). This article presents a stochastic model for the analysis of the base flow exceedance volumes and accompanied cycle times between the ends of the successive exceedaence events. The model is based on the Markov's discreteds model principles and the assumptions about the form of the process intensity functions. The number of occurrence discrete distributions are discussed according to chosen forms of the time and volume intensity functions. The continuous distributions of the base flow exceedance characteristic values are modelled for the base series of values and their aggregation. The distribution of the maximum exceedance volume over the base flow in chosen time interval is formulated. The article presents an application of the suggested procedures on the mean daily flows hydrographs from the Bezdan gauging station on the Danube river.
- Published
- 2014
26. Odvodnjavanje puteva
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Đukić, Aleksandar, Stanić, Miloš, Plavšić, Jasna, Despotović, Jovan, Đukić, Aleksandar, Stanić, Miloš, Plavšić, Jasna, and Despotović, Jovan
- Published
- 2022
27. Kišna kanalizacija u gradovima - analize i faze za izradu projekata kišne kanalizacije
- Author
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Despotović, Jovan, Plavšić, Jasna, Todorović, Andrijana, Jaćimović, Nenad, Stanić, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Pavlović, Dragutin, Janković, Ljiljana, Đukić, Aleksandar, Ivetić, Marko, Ranđelović, Anja, Despotović, Jovan, Plavšić, Jasna, Todorović, Andrijana, Jaćimović, Nenad, Stanić, Miloš, Prodanović, Dušan, Pavlović, Dragutin, Janković, Ljiljana, Đukić, Aleksandar, Ivetić, Marko, and Ranđelović, Anja
- Abstract
U ovom radu je shematski i fragmentarno prikazan niz najvažnijih analiza i faza kod projektovanja sistema za kanalisanje kišnih voda u gradskim uslovima, na osnovu više od 40 godina iskustva članova Instituta za hidrotehniku i vodno ekološko inženjerstvo Građevinskog fakulteta Univerziteta u Beogradu: istraživačkog – laboratorijskog, terenskog i studijskog, te niza projekata i izvođačkog iskustva, što je započelo projektom za Zrenjanin 1979-80. godine. Početni korak je analiza jakih kiša različitih trajanja, kao osnovnim podlogama iako se podaci o merodavnim kišama najčešće „prenose“ sa bliskih lokacija, daje se pregled potrebnih podloga za analizu i modeliranje oticaja kišnih voda, potom prikazuju vrste merenja u kanalizacionim sistemima, diskutuju i drugi aspekti u skladu sa konceptom i zadatim stepenom zaštite od kišnih voda – prihvatljivim rizikom od poplava – na bazi projektnog zadatka za formiranje tehničkog rešenja. Bitno je da projektom treba osigurati i bezbedno odvijanje pešačkog i motornog saobraćaja na ulicama, na prelazima i kolovozima, kao i zaštitu okoline od zagađenja kišnim oticajem koji, šta više, može da se koristi. Opisani su aspekti i efekti kanalisanja i ispuštanja kišnih voda, koje su do 70-ih godina smatrane „čistim“, na životnu sredinu, prvenstveno na recipijente - vodotoke, dok se poslednjih 20-ak godina koriste kao izvori voda za razne namene., The paper presents schematic and fragmentary approach to rain water in urban conditions, according to the basic stages od design project procedure that is based on more than 40 years of experience of members of the Institute of Hydraulic and Water Ecological Engineering at the Faculty of Engineering, University of Belgrade, including research, laboratory and field works, preliminary and main designs and execution works experience. As first and important step is analysis of short duration high intensity rainfall usually based on near by gauge data through required analysis of background information for modelling of rainfall runoff, together with measurements in drainage systems, based on Terms of references, that includes concept and protection level from rain water – acceptable risk of flood, and finaly development of technical solution. The solution also needs to ensure safe pedestrian and motor traffic on streets, at crossings and on pavements. Before the 70-ies the effects of collecting and discharge of rainfall runoff was considered not poluted on the environment, primarily on the recipients – watercourses, what was found being wrong. Yet, during last two decades after treatment rainfall runoff being used as water sources.
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- 2022
28. Non-parametric Stochastic Generation of Streamflow Series at Multiple Locations
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Marković, Đurica, Plavšić, Jasna, Ilich, Nesa, and Ilić, Siniša
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- 2015
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29. Multi-Temporal Analysis of Mean Annual and Seasonal Stream Flow Trends, Including Periodicity and Multiple Non-Linear Regression
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Stojković, Milan, Ilić, Aleksandra, Prohaska, Stevan, and Plavšić, Jasna
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- 2014
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30. Sveobuhvatna analiza malih voda na srednjim i malim slivovima Republike Srbije južno od Save i Dunava
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Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Ćatović, Samir, Bartoš Divac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Ilić, Aleksandra, Marjanović, Srđan, and Pavlović, Dragutin
- Subjects
minimalni godišnji protoci ,low flow thresholds ,statistical analysis ,annual minimum flows ,low flow duration ,low flows ,statistiĉka analiza ,male vode ,malovodni periodi ,trajanje malovodnih perioda ,minimum mean monthly flows ,minimalni srednjemeseĉni protoci - Abstract
Ideja ovoga rada je da prikaže osnovne rezultate sprovedene sveobuhvatne analize malih voda na teritoriji Republike Srbije, južno od Save i Dunava, preuzete iz buduće monografije „Proseĉni protoci i male vode na srednjim i malim slivovima Srbije”, ĉija je izrada u toku. Ovu monografiju zajedno realizuju Institut za vodoprivredu „Jaroslav Ĉerni” i Republiĉki hidrometeorološki zavod Srbije, uz uĉešće GraĊevinskog fakulteta iz Beograda i GraĊevinsko-arhitektonskog fakulteta iz Niša. U radu su prikazane kvantitativne karakteristike malih voda, koje se najĉešće koriste kao podloga u projektovanju većine vodoprivrednih i hidrotehniĉkih objekata, a pre svega za ocenu „minimalnog održivog protoka”, koji se po važećem Zakonu o vodama mora neprikosnoveno ostaviti u reci za potrebe održavanja biocenoze i zadovoljenje potreba nizvodnih korisnika. U konkretnom sluĉaju prikazuju se najbitniji rezultati ocene višegodišnjih proseka srednje godišnjeg protoka, krivih trajanja srednje dnevnih protoka i obezbeĊenosti minimalnih srednje meseĉnih protoka. Posebno su detaljno analizirani kvantitativni pokazatelji dužina malovodnih perioda ispod protoka sa odabranim trajanjem, odreĊenih sa krivih trajanja dnevnih protoka. Primenjen je novi prilaz koji obuhvata, pored klasiĉne probabilistiĉke analize minimalnih godišnjih i minimalnih srednjih meseĉnih protoka, i sveobuhvatnu analizu neprekidnih trajanja malih voda ispod protoka karakteristiĉnih trajanja, njihove unutargodišnje raspodele i procentualne zastupljenosti. Bazni podaci korišćeni pri izradi ove analize, zvaniĉni su podaci Republiĉkog hidrometeorološkog zavoda sa 82 profila hidroloških stanica na srednjim i malim slivovima na teritoriji Srbije, južno od Save i Dunava. Pri tome su korišćene sve raspoložive vremenske serije srednjednevnih i minimalnih godišnjih protoka. Periodi obrade su bili od poĉetka rada odreĊene hidrološke stanice, do zakljuĉno sa 2018. godinom. This paper presents main results of a comprehensive analysis of low flows on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, south of the Sava and the Danube rivers. The results are a part of the forthcoming book on “Mean and low flows in small and medium watersheds in Serbia”, which is under development. The book is being produced jointly by the “Jaroslav Černi” Institute for Water Resources Management and Republic Hydrometeo¬ro¬logical Service of Serbia with participation of the University of Belgrade – Faculty of Civil Engineering and University of Niš – Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture. The analysis deals with the quantitative characteristics of low flows that are commonly used for design in various water management and hydraulic engineering projects, but are also a starting point in estimating the “minimum sustainable flow”, which is, according to the current Water Act, the minimum flow in the rivers needed for maintaining the biocenosis and for satisfying the demands of downstream users. The main outcomes of the comprehensive low flow analysis presented in this paper are the long-term mean flow, duration of daily flows and probability of exceedance of minimum mean monthly flows. Additionally, special attention is given to quantitative indices of length of intervals with flow below the specified thresholds, taken from the flow duration curve. A new approach applied includes, beside a classical statistical analysis of annual minima and mean monthly minima, a comprehensive analysis of continuous duration of low flows below the specified thresholds and their seasonal distribution. Basic data from 82 hydrological stations in small and medium-sized watersheds within Serbia south of the Danube and the Sava rivers are provided by Republic Hydromete-orological Service. All available data on daily and absolute annual minimum flows from the start of operation and 2018 are used in the analysis.
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- 2021
31. Neparametarsko generisanje stohastičkih hidroloških vremenskih serija i njihova višegodišnja varijabilnost
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Marković, Đurica, Pavlović, Dragutin, Plavšić, Jasna, and Ilić, Neša
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višegodišnje varijacije ,stohastičko generisanje ,neparametarske metode ,hidrološke vremenske serije - Abstract
U radu je prikazana metodologija stohastičkog generisanja hidrometeoroloških vremenskih serija, zasnovana na neparametarskim metodama za opisivanje raspodela podataka i njihove korelacione strukture. Prikazana metodologija reprodukuje osnovne statistike osmotrenih serija i njihovu prostornu i vremensku zavisnost, kako za osnovnu vremensku diskretizaciju, tako i nakon agregacije ili osrednjavanja u dužim vremenskim koracima (npr. sa mesečnog na godišnji vremenski korak). Metodologija obuhvata i algoritam za podešavanje karakteristika višegodišnjih varijacija u generisanim vremen-skim serijama. Dugački nizovi generisani ovom metodologijom stoga mogu biti veoma korisni u razmatranjima planiranja i upravljanja akumulacijama sa višegodišnjim izravnanjem.
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- 2021
32. Ekonomsko vrednovanje mera za zaštitu od poplava na slivu reke Tamnave
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Pudar, Ranko and Plavšić, Jasna
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zaštita od poplava ,rizik od poplava ,štete od poplava ,ekonomsko vrednovanje - Abstract
radu se razmatraju mere zaštite od poplava na slivu reke Tamnave i njihovo ekonomsko vrednovanje pomoću razvijenog modela šteta fine rezolucije. Štete od poplava su procenjene za tri moguća scenarija zaštite (sive, zelene i sivo-zelene mere), kao i za referentno stanje zaštite iz 2014. godine. Smanjenje gubitaka tj. šteta u odnosu na referentno stanje smatra se koristima od određenog scenarija zaštite. Razvijeni model šteta se zasniva na kartama ugroženosti i detaljnim podacima o najvažnijim receptorima rizika. Rezultati su pokazali da planirane retenzije kao aktivne zelene mere zaštite značajno smanjuju štete od poplava. Planirano nadvišenje postojećih nasipa primenjeno bez retenzija donosi manje koristi u smislu izbegnite štete, dok u kombinaciji sa retenzijama praktično ne donosi nikakve koristi. Pokazano je da su predložena metodologija i mikro model šteta primenljivi za razmatranje efekata različitih vrsta mera u savremenom pristupu zaštite od poplava u kome se akcenat stavlja na zelene mere i prirodi bliska rešenja.
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- 2021
33. Prostorni raspored osnovnih karakteristika malih voda na teritoriji Republike Srbije
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Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Ćatović, Samir, Bartoš Divac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Ilić, Aleksandra, Marjanović, Srđan, and Pavlović, Dragutin
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mean annual flow ,minimalni srednji mesečni protok obezbeđenosti 95% ,minimum mean monthly flow of 95% probability of exceedance ,low flows ,medium and small catchments ,male vode ,srednji godišnji protok ,malovodni periodi ,srednji i mali slivovi - Abstract
Ideja ovoga rada je da prikaže prostorni raspored osnovnih karakteristika malih voda na teritoriji Republike Srbije kao podloga projektovanju većine vodoprivrednih i hidrotehničkih objekata. To se pre svega odnosi na prostorni prikaz modula oticaja minimalnih srednjih mesečnih protoka 95% obezbeđenosti i srednjih godišnjih protoka verovatnoće pojave 10% i trajanja malovodnih perioda ispod protoka karakterističnih trajanja. Navedene karakteristike malih voda preuzete se iz buduće monografije „Prosečni protoci i male vode na srednjim i malim slivovima Srbije”, čija je izrada u toku. This paper presents the spatial distribution of basic characteristics of low flows on the territory of the Republic of Serbia as the basis for design of various water management systems and hydraulic engineering structures. Spatial representation of specific runoff for minimum annual mean monthly flows of 95% probability of exceedance, specific runoff for mean annual flows of 10% probability of non-exceedance, and duration of low flow below selected characteristic threshold values. These low flow characteristics are taken from the forthcoming monograph “Mean and low flows in small and medium watersheds in Serbia”, which is under preparation.
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- 2021
34. Primer vrednovanja ekosistema u funkciji zaštite od poplava na slivu reke Tamnave
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Pudar, Ranko, Ivetić, Marko, and Plavšić, Jasna
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mere zaštire od poplava ,rizik od poplava ,prirodi bliska rešenja ,vrednovanje ,funkcije ekosistema ,zelena infrastruktura - Abstract
U današnje vreme javlja se potreba za povećanim stepe-nom zaštite od poplava, kako zbog izazova koje donose klimatske promene, tako i zbog sve veće vrednosti do-bara koje želimo da štitimo. Ono što je takoĊe neophod-no je da se u upravljanju rizikom od poplava sve više primenjuju integralni i holistiĉki pristupi. Takvi pristupi podrazumevaju i primenu zelene infrastrukture i prirodi bliskih rešenja, koja ispunjavanju osnovni cilj smanjenja rizika od poplava, ali koja istovremeno donose i dodatne dugoroĉne koristi sa ekološkog i socio-ekonomskog as-pekta, kao što je povećanje zelenih prostora, povećanje biodiverziteta, poboljšanje kvaliteta vode i vazduha, mogućnosti za rekreaciju stanovništva, i mnoge druge. Sveukupno, takva rešenja doprinose povećanju vred-nosti funkcija koje prirodni ekosistemi pružaju, a time i povećanju ukupnog prirodnog kapitala. U radu je pri-kazana metodologija i rezultati vrednovanja doprinosa zelenih mera za zaštitu od poplava vrednostima funkcija ekosistema na slivu reke Tamnave u zapadnoj Srbiji. Na primeru pošumljavanja kao antierozione mere pokazano je kako se može odrediti lokalna vrednost uloge ekosi-stema u spreĉavanju erozije. Ta vrednost je procenjena na 16.8 €/ha/god. Ukupni godišnji doprinos svih rele-vantnih funkcija ekosistema na slivu je procenjena na izmeĊu 111 i 329 miliona €.
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- 2021
35. Maksimalna trajanja malovodnih perioda na malim i srednjim slivovima Srbije
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Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Ćatović, Samir, Bartoš Divac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Ilić, Aleksandra, Marjanović, Srđan, and Pavlović, Dragutin
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statistical analysis ,low flow duration ,low flows ,male vode ,statistička analiza ,trajanje malih voda ,malovodni periodi ,trajanje malovodnih perioda - Abstract
Maksimalna trajanja malovodnih perioda, koje se prikazuju u ovom radu, preuzeta su iz nove monografije „Prosečni protoci i male vode na srednjim i malim slivovima Srbije”, čija je izrada u toku, a koju zajednički realizuju Institut za vodoprivredu „Jaroslav Černi“ i Republički hidrometeorološki zavod Srbije uz učešće Građevinskog fakulteta iz Beograda i Građevinsko-arhitektonskog fakulteta iz Niša. Bazni podaci koji su korišćeni su zvanični podaci Republičkog hidrometeorološkog zavoda sa 82 profila hidroloških stanica na srednjim i malim slivovima na teritoriji Srbije južno od Save i Dunava. Pri tome su korišćene sve raspoložive vremenske serije srednjednevnih i minimalnih godišnjih protoka. Periodi obrade su bili od početka rada određene hidrološke stanice do zaključno sa 2018. godinom. U ovom radu daje se samo prikaz rezultata obrada jedne od osnovnih karakteristika malovodnih perioda, a to su maksimalna trajanja malovodnih perioda u funkciji repernih protoka i verovatnoće pojave, kao i njihova unutargodišnja zastupljenost. Prikazani su osrednjeni rezultati za razmatrane slivove i za celu teritoriju Republike Srbije. Maximum low flow durations, presented in this paper, are taken from the new book on “Mean and low flows in small and medium watersheds in Serbia”, which is jointly under development by the “Jaroslav Černi” Institute for Water Resources Management and Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia with participation of the University of Belgrade – Faculty of Civil Engineering and University of Niš – Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture. Basic data from 82 hydrological stations in small and medium-sized watersheds within Serbia south of the Danube and the Sava rivers are provided by Republic Hydrometeorological Service. All available data on daily and absolute annual minimum flows from the start of operation and 2018 are used in the analysis. This paper presents a part of the results relating maximum low flow durations to characteristic thresholds and probability of occurrence, as well as their seasonal distribution. The results are averaged over individual watersheds and for the territory of Serbia.
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- 2021
36. Najnovija sveobuhvatna analiza malih voda na teritoriji Republike Srbije južno od Save i Dunava
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Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Ćatović, Samir, Bartoš Divac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Pavlović, Dragutin, Marjanović, Srđan, Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Ćatović, Samir, Bartoš Divac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Pavlović, Dragutin, and Marjanović, Srđan
- Abstract
Sveobuhvatna analiza malih voda, koje se prikazuju u ovom radu, preuzete su iz nove monografije „Prosečni proticaji i male vode na srednjim i malim slivovima Srbije”, čija je izrada u toku, a koju zajednički realizuju Institut za vodoprivredu „Jaroslav Černi“ i Republički hidrometeorološki zavod Srbije uz učešće Građevinskog fakulteta iz Beograda i Građevinsko-arhitektonskog fakulteta iz Niša. Bazni podaci koji su korišćeni su zvanični podaci Republičkog hidrometeorološkog zavoda sa 82 profila hidroloških stanica na srednjim i malim slivovima na teritoriji Srbije, južno od Save i Dunava. Pri tome su korišćene sve raspoložive vremenske serije srednjednevnih i minimalnih godišnjih protoka. Periodi obrade su bili od početka rada određene hidrološke stanice do zaključno sa 2018. godinom.
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- 2021
37. Planning and Suitability Assessment of Large-scale Nature-based Solutions for Flood-risk Reduction
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Mubeen, Adam (author), Ruangpan, L. (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author), Torrez, Arlex Sanchez (author), Plavšić, Jasna (author), Mubeen, Adam (author), Ruangpan, L. (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author), Torrez, Arlex Sanchez (author), and Plavšić, Jasna (author)
- Abstract
Adverse effects of climate change are increasing around the world and the floods are posing significant challenges for water managers. With climate projections showing increased risks of storms and extreme precipitation, the use of traditional measures alone is no longer an option. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) offer a suitable alternative to reduce the risk of flooding and provide multiple benefits. However, planning such interventions requires careful consideration of various factors and local contexts. The present paper provides contribution in this direction and it proposes a methodology for allocation of large-scale NBS using suitability mapping. The methodology was implemented within the toolboxes of ESRI ArcMap software in order to map suitability for four types of NBS interventions: floodplain restoration, detention basins, retention ponds, and river widening. The toolboxes developed were applied to the case study area in Serbia, i.e., the Tamnava River basin. Flood maps were used to determine the volume of floodwater that needs to be stored for reducing flood risk in the basin and subsequent downstream areas. The suitability maps produced indicate the potential of the new methodology and its application as a decision-support tool for selection and allocation of large-scale NBS., Water Resources
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- 2021
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38. Primenljivost mjesečnih bilansnih hidroloških modela u promenljivim klimatskim uslovima
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Topalović, Žana, Todorović, Andrijana, and Plavšić, Jasna
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transferabilnost modela ,efikasnost modela ,mjesečni bilansni hidrološki modeli ,hidrološki potpisi ,uslovi promjenljive klime ,komponente vodnog bilansa - Abstract
Mjesečni bilansni hidrološki modeli (MBHM) se često koriste u studijama uticaja klimatskih promjena na vodne resurse. Stoga bi ovi modeli trebalo da daju pouzdane rezultate u promjenljivim klimatskim uslovima. Pouzdanost rezultata simulacija MBHM u ovakvim uslovima, odnosno transferabilnost ovih modela (simulacije u periodima koji se po uslovima razlikuju od perioda kalibracije), nije dovoljno istraţivana ni u domaćoj ni u svjetskoj literaturi. U ovom radu prikazana je opseţna procedura za ocjenu transferabilnosti, odnosno primjenljivosti MBHM-a u promjenljivim klimatskim uslovima. Procedura se sastoji iz analize konzistentnosti efikasnosti modela, ocjene parametara modela i simuliranih komponenti vodnog bilansa, kao i iz subjektivne ocjene efikasnosti i transferabilnosti modela. Predloţena procedura za ocjenu transferabilnosti MBHM-a je u radu primijenjena sa četiri modela: abcd, Budyko, GR2M i WASMOD, na slivu Toplice u Srbiji. Za ovaj sliv, modeli abcd i WASMOD su pokazali bolju transferabilnost od ostala dva modela, ali i oni mogu da se koriste samo u periodima koji se malo razlikuju po svojim hidroklimatskim karakteristikama u odnosu na kalibracioni. Svi razmatrani modeli mogu da se primjenjuju u vodnijim ili sušnijim periodima samo ako su padavine do 8% veće ili manje u odnosu na padavine u periodu kalibracije. Međutim, nijedan model ne moţe da reprodukuje osmotreni oticaj tokom sušnih perioda sa parametrima kalibrisanim u nekom drugom periodu. Uočena je velika varijabilnost u simuliranim zapreminama podzemnih voda i baznom oticaju pri transferima modela, kao i u ocjenama parametara koji su relevantni za njihovu simulaciju, što upućuje da za upravo ove komponente treba mijenjati koncept proračuna da bi se došlo do transferabilnijih struktura modela.
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- 2020
39. Male vode na malim i srednjim slivovima Srbije
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Prohaska, Stevan, Plavšić, Jasna, Pavlović, Dragutin, Ćatović, Samir, Marjanović, Srđan, Bartoš Divac, Vladislava, Prohaska, Ognjen, Ilić, Aleksandra, and Todorović, Andrijana
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mali i srednji slivovi ,small and medium basins ,annual minimum flow ,minimalni srednjemesečni protok ,low flows ,frequency analysis ,minimum mean monthly flow ,male vode ,statistička analiza ,minimalni godišnji protok - Abstract
U radu se prikazuju rezultati statističke analize izabranih parametara malih voda na malim i srednjim slivovima u Srbiji nastali tokom izrade nove monografije „Prosečni protoci i male vode na malim i srednjim slivovima Srbije”, koju zajednički realizuju Institut za vodoprivredu „Jaroslav Černi“ i Republički hidrometeorološki zavod Srbije uz učešće Građevinskog fakulteta iz Beograda i Građevinsko-arhitektonskog fakulteta iz Niša. Osnovna ideja je da se na odabranim srednjim i malim slivovima u Srbiji definišu osnovne kvantitativne karakteristike prosečnih protoka i malih voda. Bazni podaci koji su korišćeni su zvanični podaci Republičkog hidrometeorološkog zavoda sa 132 profila hidroloških stanica na srednjim i malim slivovima na teritoriji Srbije južno od Save i Dunava. Pri tome su korišćene sve raspoložive vremenske serije srednjednevnih i minimalnih godišnjih protoka. Periodi obrade su bili od početka rada određene hidrološke stanice do zaključno sa 2018. godinom. U ovom radu dat je grafički prikaz rezultata obrade osnovnih karakteristika malih voda i to: minimalnih srednjemesečnih protoka verovatnoće pojave 95%, kao i minimalnih godišnjih protoka verovatnoće pojave 1%. The paper presents the results of the statistical analysis of selected low flow indicators in medium and small Serbian basins obtained withing the scope of a new monograph "Mean and low flows in medium and small basins of Serbia", which is being prepared jointly by the Water Institute "Jaroslav Cerni" and the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, with the participation of the Faculty of Civil Engineering of Belgrade and the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture of Nis. The basic idea is to provide principal quantitative characteristics of mean and low flows in selected medium and small basins in Serbia. The data used in the analysis are the official data provided by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service at 132 stream gauges in medium and small basins in the territory of Serbia, south of the Sava and Danube Rivers. Thereby, all the available time series of mean daily and annual minimum flows were used. The processing periods are from when the certain gauging station started operating to the end of 2018. This paper presents only the results of the basic low flow indicators, such as the minimum mean monthly flows of the 95% probability of exceedance, as well as the annual minimum flows of the 1% probability of non-exceedance.
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- 2020
40. Impact of climate change on Serbian water management and measures for protection against negative impacts
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Đorđević, Branislav, Dašić, Tina, and Plavšić, Jasna
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akumulacije ,climate change ,water protection ,klimatske promene ,pouzdanost vodoprivrednih sistema ,springs ,flood protection ,sektor voda ,reservoirs ,zaštita od voda ,zaštita voda ,izvorišta ,branches of water management - Abstract
Emisija gasova staklene bašte (GSB) dovodi do klimatskih i hidroloških promena koje će sve nepovoljnije uticati na vodoprivredne i vodene ekosisteme. Da bi se sagledala opasnost od tih promena, u članku se najpre sistematizuju zaključci o realnom stanju vodnih resursa Srbije. To stanje se može sažeti u stav da je Srbija vodom siromašna zemlja, koja nije u stanju da čak i na nivou prosečnih protoka podmiri svoje potrebe samo iz domaćih voda. Stanje mnogo pogoršava velika prostorna i vremenska neravnomernost voda, tako da se u malovodnim periodima suma svih domaćih voda smanjuje na samo oko 50 m3/s, što je oko deset puta manje od prosečnih protoka voda koje se formiraju na prostoru Srbije. U posebnoj glavi se razmatra uticaj dva scenarija emisije GSB na promene klimatoloških i hidroloških parametara na području Srbije. Bitni klimatološki pokazatelji se pogoršavaju: po oba scenarija povećavaće se temparature u svim godišnjim dobima, što je vrlo nepovoljan proces i za vodoprivredne i za ekološke sisteme. Smanjuju se prosečne padavine, posebno u južnom i ističnim delovima zamlje. Međutim, mnogo nepovoljnija je činjenica da će smanjenje padavina biti posebno izraženo u letnjem, vegetacionom delu godine, i da će pogoršanje biti posebno veliko u južnom i istočnom delu zemlje, koji su i do sada bile oskudne. To u veoma nepovoljan položaj dovodi sve grane vodoprivrede, posebno navodnjavanje. Vrlo su nepovoljne posledice i na režime proticaja. Po oba scenarija smanjuju se prosečni godišnji protoci na rekama na slivovima sve tri Morave, Ibra, Timoka, Drine. Međutim, neuporedivo je nepovoljnija i više zabrinjava nepovoljna raspodela smanjivanja protoka tokom godine: u zimskim periodima dolazi čak i do izvesnog povećavanja u odnosu na sadašnje vrednosti, a najveće smanjenje se očekuje u vegetacinom delu godine, posebno u mesecima koji su se i do sada smatrali malovodnim – od jula do oktobra. Veoma je nepovoljno i znatno smanjenje intenziteta obnavljanja podzemnih voda (čak i preko 50%, zavisno od područja zemlje i perioda), i u tom slučaju najviše u južnom i istočnom delu zemlje. U skladu sa tim predviđanjima u centralnom delu članka se razmatraju posledice u svim vodoprivrednim granama, kao i mere koje se moraju preduzeti da bi se neutralisale ili umanjile posledice tih napovoljnih procesa. Važan je zaključak da će u novim okolnostima budućnost Srbije zavisiti od – akumulacija sa godišnjim regulisanjem protoka. Neohodne su brojne nove akumulacije i daje se okvirni pregled takvih objekata, onih koji su najneophodniji. Zahteva se da se za sve njih izradi projektna dokomentacija na nivou Generalnih projekata, kako bi se prostornim planovima prostora posebnih namena svi ti prostori sasvim konkretno zaštitili samo za te namene. To isto važi i za sva izvorišta, posebno ona velika, regionalnog značaja. Daje se zaključak o najvažnijim aktivnostima koje treba uraditi da bi se vodoprivredni sistemi pripremili za funkcionisanje u sve nepovoljnijim uslovima delovanja klimatskih promena. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are causing climate and hydrological changes that will increasingly affect water management systems and ecosystems. In order to see the danger of these changes, the article first systematizes the conclusions about the real state of Serbia's water resources. This situation can be summarized in the view that Serbia is a water-poor country, which is not able to meet its needs only at the level of average flows only from domestic waters. The situation is much more unfavorable due to the large spatial and temporal unevenness of the water. In low-water periods, the sum of all domestic waters decreases to only about 50 m3 / s, which is about ten times less than the average water flows that are formed in Serbia. The third chapter discusses the impact of two scenarios of GSB emissions on changes in climatological and hydrological parameters in Serbia. Important climatological indicators are deteriorating: in both scenarios, temperatures will increase in all seasons, which is a very unfavorable process for both water management and ecological systems. Average precipitation is decreasing, especially in the southern and eastern part of the country. However, much less unfavorable is the fact that the decrease in precipitation will be especially pronounced in the summer, vegetation part of the year, and that the deterioration will be especially large in the southern and eastern part of the country, which have been insufficient so far. This puts all branches of water management in a very unfavorable position, especially irrigation. The consequences on the flow regimes are also very unfavorable. According to both scenarios, the average annual flows on the rivers in the basins of all three Morava, Ibar, Timok, Drina are decreasing. However, the unfavorable distribution of flow reductions during the year is much more unfavorable and more worrying: in winter there is even a certain increase compared to the current values, and the largest reduction is expected in the vegetation part of the year, especially in the months considered so far. low-water - from July to October. It is very unfavorable that the intensity of groundwater renewal is significantly reduced (even over 50%, depending on the part of the country and the period), and in that case mostly in the southern and eastern part of the country. In accordance with these predictions, the fourth chapter discusses the consequences in all water management branches, as well as the measures that must be taken to neutralize or reduce the consequences of these favorable processes. An important conclusion is that in the new circumstances, the future of Serbia will depend on - accumulation with annual flow regulation. Numerous new accumulations are necessary and a table of such facilities is given, the ones that are most necessary. An important conclusion is that in the new circumstances, the future of Serbia will depend on - accumulation with annual flow regulation. Numerous new accumulations are necessary and a table of such facilities is given, the ones that are most necessary. It is required that project documentation be prepared for all of them at the level of General Projects, so that the spatial plans specifically protect all these areas only for those purposes. The same should be done for all sources, especially large ones of regional importance. A conclusion is given on the most important activities that need to be done in order to prepare water management systems in time for functioning in increasingly unfavorable conditions of climate change. [https://www.vodoprivreda.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/3-Djordjevic-Dasic-Plavsic.pdf]
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- 2020
41. Climate change in Serbia and adaptation measures in the field of water resources management
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Dašić, Tina, Đorđević, Branislav, and Plavšić, Jasna
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climate change ,complex water resources systems ,water storage reservoirs ,adaptation measures - Abstract
The paper presents the actual situation in the field of water, especially water as a resource. With an average amount of domestic water of about 1700 m3 per capita per year, Serbia is one of the poorest countries in Europe. The situation is even more unfavorable if space and time variability are taken into account. In the conditions of climate change, the situation regarding the available quantities of water will be even more unfavorable, with a decrease in average flows and more pronounced temporal variability. Therefore, the general strategic development of water resources management infrastructure is considered, as well as the necessity of planning complex integrated water resources systems, with reservoirs as the key elements of the systems, in order to use it rationally, regulate and protect water.
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- 2020
42. Riblje staze
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Janković, Ljiljana, Savić, Ljubodrag, Đikanović, Vesna, Plavšić, Jasna, Kuzmanović, Vladan, and Jovanović, Miodrag
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садржина документа: оригинална насловна страна, импресум и садржај
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- 2020
43. Робусна евалуација и калибрација билансних хидролошких модела у промјенљивим климатским условима
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Plavšić, Jasna, Topalović, Žana, Plavšić, Jasna, and Topalović, Žana
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Од хидролошких модела се очекује да што реалније репродукују хидролошке процесе на сливу те да су довољно робусни за употребу у различитим климатским подручјима. Робусан хидролошки модел би требао бити трансферабилан на различите климатске услове и имати добру ефикасност, без обзира на одабрани калибрациони и валидациони период. У овој докторској дисертацији анализирају се мјесечни билансни хидролошки модели (МБХМ) и њихова примјена у условима промјенљиве климе. Ови модели имају широку практичну примјену, али су ријетко анализирани у овом контексту. Досадашња истраживања показују да тренутне генерације хидролошких модела не могу ефикасно симулирати отицаје у периодима са различитим хидроклиматским карактеристикама. Ту је најчешће проблем симулација модела у сушном периоду ако је модел калибрисан у водном, и обрнуто. У потрази за робусним моделима, исте је неопходно истражити у овом контексту. У том циљу дефинисана је методологија за ригорозно тестирање МБХМ‐а у условима промјенљиве климе. Предложеним евалуационим оквиром тестира се сљедеће: (1) конзистентност ефикасности модела преко уобичајених статистичких показатеља и показатеља формираних преко грешака у репродуковању хидролошких потписа, (2) конзистентност оцјене параметара у калибрационим периодима као и (3) симулираних компоненти водног биланса. Разматрана су два приступа моделирању, у погледу избора периода за калибрацију и валидацију модела, који се сматрају адекватним за примјену модела у климатски промјенљивим условима. У оба приступа, шест МБХМ‐а (abcd, Budyko, GR2M, WASMOD, WatBal и Xinanjiang) различитих структура су калибрисани једнокритеријумском оптимизацијом, на три слива различитих карактеристика. Ови приступи моделирању су комбиновани са избором броја и врсте циљних функција да би се добиле различите калибрационе стратегије а у циљу добијања одговора како одређена калибрациона стратегија утиче на ефикасност модела. Испитивање утицаја калибрације са једном или више циљних функција извршено је на п, Hydrological models are expected to reproduce catchment processes realistically and to be robust so that they can be applied to different conditions. A robust model is supposed to be transferable across different climatic conditions and it should perform well regardless of the selection of calibration and validation periods. In this doctoral dissertation, monthly water balance models (MWBM) and their application to changing climate conditions are anlaysed. These models are commonly used in practice but rarely analysed with this respect. Up to date research show that present generations of hydrological models are not able to efficiently simulate runoff in periods with contrasted climate conditions. Problem is usually with model simulations in dry periods if calibrated in wet ones, and vice versa. In order to identify robust hydrological models, they need to be tested with this respect. To that end, robust methodology for MWBM evaluation in changing climate conditions is defined. In this evaluation framework, (1) consistency in model efiiciency quantified with the common statistical indicators as well as indicators formed as errors of simulated hydrological signatures compared with the observed ones, (2) consistency in model parameter estimates in calibration periods and (3) consistency of simulated water balance components are tested. Two modelling approaches are considered, with regard to the calibration and validation period selection, which are deemed to be adequate for application in changing climate conditions. In both approaches, six MWBMs of various structures (abcd, Budyko, GR2M, WASMOD, WatBal and Xinanjiang) are calibrated in single‐criteria optimization on three catchments with different hydroclimatic characteristics and evaluated within the evaluation framework. These approaches are combined with the choice of number and type of objective functions in order to obtain different calibration strategies that will help to answer the research question how a par
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- 2020
44. Incorporating stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria framework for planning large-scale Nature-Based Solutions
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Ruangpan, Laddaporn, Vojinovic, Zoran, Plavšić, Jasna, Doong, Dong-Jiing, Bahlmann, Tobias, Alves, Alida, Tseng, Leng-Hsuan, Ranđelović, Anja, Todorović, Andrijana, Kocić, Zvonimir, Beljinac, Vladimir, Wu, Meng-Hsuan, Lo, Wei-Cheng, Perez-Lapeña, Blanca, Franca, Mário J., Ruangpan, Laddaporn, Vojinovic, Zoran, Plavšić, Jasna, Doong, Dong-Jiing, Bahlmann, Tobias, Alves, Alida, Tseng, Leng-Hsuan, Ranđelović, Anja, Todorović, Andrijana, Kocić, Zvonimir, Beljinac, Vladimir, Wu, Meng-Hsuan, Lo, Wei-Cheng, Perez-Lapeña, Blanca, and Franca, Mário J.
- Abstract
Hydro-meteorological risks are a growing issue for societies, economies and environments around the world. An effective, sustainable response to such risks and their future uncertainty requires a paradigm shift in our research and practical efforts. In this respect, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) offer the potential to achieve a more effective and flexible response to hydro-meteorological risks while also enhancing human well-being and biodiversity. The present paper describes a new methodology that incorporates stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria analysis framework, as part of a tool for selecting risk mitigation measures. The methodology has been applied to Tamnava river basin in Serbia and Nangang river basin in Taiwan within the EC-funded RECONECT project. The results highlight the importance of involving stakeholders in the early stages of projects in order to achieve successful implementation of NBSs. The methodology can assist decision-makers in formulating desirable benefits and co-benefits and can enable a systematic and transparent NBSs planning process.
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- 2020
45. Spatial distribution of specific runoff in Serbia based on rainfall-runoff relationship
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Urošev, Marko, Štrbac, Dragoljub, Kovačević-Majkić, Jelena, Plavšić, Jasna, Yamashkin, Stanislav, Urošev, Marko, Štrbac, Dragoljub, Kovačević-Majkić, Jelena, Plavšić, Jasna, and Yamashkin, Stanislav
- Abstract
One of the indicators of water potential and water resources is specific runoff. Specific runoff for the whole territory of Serbia was obtained using the exponential relation between depth of runoff Y (mm) and precipitation P (mm). This relation is obtained on the basis of the mean annual amount of precipitation and annual water discharge, namely the depth of the runoff for 69 basins for the period 1961–2010. Coefficient of determination (R²) of relation between the depth of runoff and precipitation is 0.72. The differences between measured and modeled values of specific runoff vary from basin to basin, but at the level of the whole Serbia it is 3.5%. More precisely, the measured specific runoff amounts 5.6 l/s/km2, and the modeled specific runoff is 5.7 l/s/km2. The verification was done by applying the model to 11 large river basins in Serbia. Spatial distribution of the modeled specific runoff is presented by a digital map of specific runoff with pixel resolution 100 × 100 m which enables the estimation of mean annual water discharge in any ungauged basin in Serbia.
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- 2020
46. Incorporating stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria framework for planning large-scale Nature-Based Solutions
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Ruangpan, L. (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author), Plavšić, Jasna (author), Doong, Dong Jiing (author), Bahlmann, Tobias (author), Alves, Alida (author), Tseng, L.H. (author), Randelović, Anja (author), Franca, M.J. (author), Ruangpan, L. (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author), Plavšić, Jasna (author), Doong, Dong Jiing (author), Bahlmann, Tobias (author), Alves, Alida (author), Tseng, L.H. (author), Randelović, Anja (author), and Franca, M.J. (author)
- Abstract
Hydro-meteorological risks are a growing issue for societies, economies and environments around the world. An effective, sustainable response to such risks and their future uncertainty requires a paradigm shift in our research and practical efforts. In this respect, Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) offer the potential to achieve a more effective and flexible response to hydro-meteorological risks while also enhancing human well-being and biodiversity. The present paper describes a new methodology that incorporates stakeholders’ preferences into a multi-criteria analysis framework, as part of a tool for selecting risk mitigation measures. The methodology has been applied to Tamnava river basin in Serbia and Nangang river basin in Taiwan within the EC-funded RECONECT project. The results highlight the importance of involving stakeholders in the early stages of projects in order to achieve successful implementation of NBSs. The methodology can assist decision-makers in formulating desirable benefits and co-benefits and can enable a systematic and transparent NBSs planning process., Water Resources, Rivers, Ports, Waterways and Dredging Engineering
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- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
47. An Evaluation of Image Velocimetry Techniques under Low Flow Conditions and High Seeding Densities Using Unmanned Aerial Systems
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Pearce, Sophie, Ljubičić, Robert, Peña-Haro, Salvador, Perks, Matthew, Tauro, Flavia, Pizarro, Alonso, Dal Sasso, Silvano, Strelnikova, Dariia, Grimaldi, Salvatore, Maddock, Ian, Paulus, Gernot, Plavšić, Jasna, Prodanović, Dušan, Manfreda, Salvatore, Pearce, Sophie, Ljubičić, Robert, Peña-Haro, Salvador, Perks, Matthew, Tauro, Flavia, Pizarro, Alonso, Dal Sasso, Silvano, Strelnikova, Dariia, Grimaldi, Salvatore, Maddock, Ian, Paulus, Gernot, Plavšić, Jasna, Prodanović, Dušan, and Manfreda, Salvatore
- Abstract
Image velocimetry has proven to be a promising technique for monitoring river flows using remotely operated platforms such as Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS). However, the application of various image velocimetry algorithms has not been extensively assessed. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted on five different image velocimetry algorithms including Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry (LSPIV), Large-Scale Particle Tracking Velocimetry (LSPTV), Kanade–Lucas Tomasi Image Velocimetry (KLT-IV or KLT), Optical Tracking Velocimetry (OTV) and Surface Structure Image Velocimetry (SSIV), during low river flow conditions (average surface velocities of 0.12–0.14 m s−1, Q60) on the River Kolubara, Central Serbia. A DJI Phantom 4 Pro UAS was used to collect two 30-second videos of the surface flow. Artificial seeding material was distributed homogeneously across the rivers surface, to enhance the conditions for image velocimetry techniques. The sensitivity analysis was performed on comparable parameters between the different algorithms, including the particle identification area parameters (such as Interrogation Area (LSPIV, LSPTV and SSIV), Block Size (KLT-IV) and Trajectory Length (OTV)) and the feature extraction rate. Results highlighted that KLT and SSIV were sensitive to changing the feature extraction rate; however, changing the particle identification area did not affect the surface velocity results significantly. OTV and LSPTV, on the other hand, highlighted that changing the particle identification area presented higher variability in the results, while changing the feature extraction rate did not affect the surface velocity outputs. LSPIV proved to be sensitive to changing both the feature extraction rate and the particle identification area. This analysis has led to the conclusions that for surface velocities of approximately 0.12 m s−1 image velocimetry techniques can provide results comparable to traditional techniques such as ADCPs. However, LSPI
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- 2020
48. Evaluation of Green and Grey Flood Mitigation Measures in Rural Watersheds
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Pudar, Ranko, Plavšić, Jasna, Todorović, Andrijana, Pudar, Ranko, Plavšić, Jasna, and Todorović, Andrijana
- Abstract
Floods cause considerable damages worldwide and mitigation of their adverse effects through effective protection measures is needed. Along with the commonly applied “grey” infrastructure, “green” measures that can offer additional benefits, such as ecosystem services, are increasingly being considered lately. While the recent research tendencies are focused on the effectiveness and the value of green measures in urban areas, this paper presents a comprehensive financial evaluation of green and grey flood mitigation scenarios for a smaller rural watershed. A micro-scale damage model that builds on the hydrodynamic modeling of hazard, detailed asset identification, and damage assessment is presented and applied for evaluation of benefits from various flood mitigation measures in the Tamnava watershed in Serbia. Four scenarios are considered: (1) existing flood protection system; (2) green scenario involving new detention basins; (3) grey infrastructure enhancement by rising of the existing levees and diverting flood discharges; and (4) green-grey scenario that combines scenarios (2) and (3). The benefits (loss reduction) are the greatest with the green scenario and marginally higher with the combined green-grey scenario. The results suggest that for small rural watersheds, a holistic, integrative approach that includes both types of infrastructure can provide the most effective flood risk mitigation.
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- 2020
49. Evaluating the transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions
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Topalović, Žana, Todorović, Andrijana, Plavšić, Jasna, Topalović, Žana, Todorović, Andrijana, and Plavšić, Jasna
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Monthly water balance models (MWBMs) are often used for making flow projections under climate change. As such, these models should provide accurate flow simulations; however, they are seldom evaluated in this regard. This paper presents a comprehensive framework intended for the evaluation of the applicability of MWBMs under changing climatic conditions. The framework consists of analyses of consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components, and a subjective assessment of model transferability. Four MWBMs – abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD – are used to simulate runoff in the Wimmera catchment affected by the Millennium drought. Although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD, none of the models performed well in transfer to the driest period. The greatest variability is detected in simulated groundwater storage and baseflow; thus, these model components should be improved and/or enhanced calibration strategies should be employed to advance the transferability of MWBMs under changing climate.
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- 2020
50. Evaluating transferability of monthly water balance models under changing climate conditions
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Toplaović, Žana, Todorović, Andrijana, Plavšić, Jasna, Toplaović, Žana, Todorović, Andrijana, and Plavšić, Jasna
- Abstract
Monthly water balance models (MWBMs) are often used for making flow projections under climate change. As such, these models should provide accurate flow simulations; however, they are seldom evaluated in this regard. This paper presents a comprehensive framework intended for the evaluation of the applicability of MWBMs under changing climatic conditions. The framework consists of analyses of consistency in model performance, parameter estimates and simulated water balance components, and a subjective assessment of model transferability. Four MWBMs – abcd, Budyko, GR2M and WASMOD – are used to simulate runoff in the Wimmera catchment affected by the Millennium drought. Although abcd and Budyko slightly outperformed GR2M and WASMOD, none of the models performed well in transfer to the driest period. The greatest variability is detected in simulated groundwater storage and baseflow; thus, these model components should be improved and/or enhanced calibration strategies should be employed to advance the transferability of MWBMs under changing climate., M22; in press
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- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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