Search

Persistent contrails make up a large fraction of aviation's contribution to global warming. We describe a scalable, automated detection and matching (ADM) system to determine from satellite data whether a flight has made a persistent contrail. The ADM system compares flight segments to contrails detected by a computer vision algorithm running on images from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. We develop a 'flight matching' algorithm and use it to label each flight segment as a 'match' or 'non-match'. We perform this analysis on 1.6 million flight segments. The result is an analysis of which flights make persistent contrails several orders of magnitude larger than any previous work. We assess the agreement between our labels and available prediction models based on weather forecasts. Shifting air traffic to avoid regions of contrail formation has been proposed as a possible mitigation with the potential for very low cost/ton-CO2e. Our findings suggest that imperfections in these prediction models increase this cost/ton by about an order of magnitude. Contrail avoidance is a cost-effective climate change mitigation even with this factor taken into account, but our results quantify the need for more accurate contrail prediction methods and establish a benchmark for future development., Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures

In recent years, enterprises have been targeted by advanced adversaries who leverage creative ways to infiltrate their systems and move laterally to gain access to critical data. One increasingly common evasive method is to hide the malicious activity behind a benign program by using tools that are already installed on user computers. These programs are usually part of the operating system distribution or another user-installed binary, therefore this type of attack is called "Living-Off-The-Land". Detecting these attacks is challenging, as adversaries may not create malicious files on the victim computers and anti-virus scans fail to detect them. We propose the design of an Active Learning framework called LOLAL for detecting Living-Off-the-Land attacks that iteratively selects a set of uncertain and anomalous samples for labeling by a human analyst. LOLAL is specifically designed to work well when a limited number of labeled samples are available for training machine learning models to detect attacks. We investigate methods to represent command-line text using word-embedding techniques, and design ensemble boosting classifiers to distinguish malicious and benign samples based on the embedding representation. We leverage a large, anonymized dataset collected by an endpoint security product and demonstrate that our ensemble classifiers achieve an average F1 score of 0.96 at classifying different attack classes. We show that our active learning method consistently improves the classifier performance, as more training data is labeled, and converges in less than 30 iterations when starting with a small number of labeled instances., Comment: 14 pages, published in RAID 2021

Two recent landmark experiments have performed Gaussian boson sampling (GBS) with a non-programmable linear interferometer and threshold detectors on up to 144 output modes (see Refs.~\onlinecite{zhong_quantum_2020,zhong2021phase}). Here we give classical sampling algorithms with better total variation distance and Kullback-Leibler divergence than these experiments and a computational cost quadratic in the number of modes. Our method samples from a distribution that approximates the single-mode and two-mode ideal marginals of the given Gaussian boson sampler, which are calculated efficiently. One implementation sets the parameters of a Boltzmann machine from the calculated marginals using a mean field solution. This is a 2nd order approximation, with the uniform and thermal approximations corresponding to the 0th and 1st order, respectively. The $k$th order approximation reproduces Ursell functions (also known as connected correlations) up to order $k$ with a cost exponential in $k$ and high precision, while the experiment exhibits higher order Ursell functions with lower precision. This methodology, like other polynomial approximations introduced previously, does not apply to random circuit sampling because the $k$th order approximation would simply result in the uniform distribution, in contrast to GBS., Comment: Improved analysis on the estimation of total variation distance difference with a finite number of samples. Provided evidence for the stability of the KL divergence difference with a finite number of samples. Changed the term "correlation" to "Ursell function", for clarity. 17 pages, 11 figures

This is an updated version of supplementary information to accompany "Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor", an article published in the October 24, 2019 issue of Nature. The main article is freely available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1666-5. Summary of changes since arXiv:1910.11333v1 (submitted 23 Oct 2019): added URL for qFlex source code; added Erratum section; added Figure S41 comparing statistical and total uncertainty for log and linear XEB; new References [1,65]; miscellaneous updates for clarity and style consistency; miscellaneous typographical and formatting corrections., Comment: 67 pages, 51 figures

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing humanity, and we, as machine learning experts, may wonder how we can help. Here we describe how machine learning can be a powerful tool in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping society adapt to a changing climate. From smart grids to disaster management, we identify high impact problems where existing gaps can be filled by machine learning, in collaboration with other fields. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the machine learning community to join the global effort against climate change., Comment: For additional resources, please visit the website that accompanies this paper: https://www.climatechange.ai/

There is a rapidly increasing interest in crowdsourcing for data labeling. By crowdsourcing, a large number of labels can be often quickly gathered at low cost. However, the labels provided by the crowdsourcing workers are usually not of high quality. In this paper, we propose a minimax conditional entropy principle to infer ground truth from noisy crowdsourced labels. Under this principle, we derive a unique probabilistic labeling model jointly parameterized by worker ability and item difficulty. We also propose an objective measurement principle, and show that our method is the only method which satisfies this objective measurement principle. We validate our method through a variety of real crowdsourcing datasets with binary, multiclass or ordinal labels., Comment: 31 pages

This paper presents a novel approach for automatically generating image descriptions: visual detectors, language models, and multimodal similarity models learnt directly from a dataset of image captions. We use multiple instance learning to train visual detectors for words that commonly occur in captions, including many different parts of speech such as nouns, verbs, and adjectives. The word detector outputs serve as conditional inputs to a maximum-entropy language model. The language model learns from a set of over 400,000 image descriptions to capture the statistics of word usage. We capture global semantics by re-ranking caption candidates using sentence-level features and a deep multimodal similarity model. Our system is state-of-the-art on the official Microsoft COCO benchmark, producing a BLEU-4 score of 29.1%. When human judges compare the system captions to ones written by other people on our held-out test set, the system captions have equal or better quality 34% of the time., Comment: version corresponding to CVPR15 paper