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The properties of the solar wind measured in-situ in the heliosphere are largely controlled by energy deposition in the solar. Previous studies have shown that long duration and large scale magnetic structures show an inverse relation between the solar wind velocity measured in situ near 1 au and the expansion factor of the magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere. We exploit Solar Orbiter data in conjunction with the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) coronal model, and the solar wind trajectory to evaluate the flux expansion factor - speed relation at the solar "source surface" at rss. We find a statistically weak anti-correlation between the in-situ bulk velocity and the coronal expansion factor, for about 1.5 years of solar data. Classification of the data by source latitude reveals different levels of anticorrelation. We show the existence of fast solar wind that originates in strong magnetic field regions at low latitudes and undergoes large expansion factor. We provide evidence that such winds become supersonic during the super radial expansion (below rss), and are theoretically governed by a positive correlation v-f. We find that faster winds on average have a flux tube expansion at a larger radius than slower winds. An anticorrelation between solar wind speed and expansion factor is present for solar winds originating in high latitude structures in solar minimum activity, typically associated with coronal hole-like structures, but this cannot be generalized to lower latitude sources. Therefore, the value of the expansion factor alone cannot be used to predict the solar wind speed. Other parameters, such as the height at which the expansion gradient is the strongest must also be taken into account., Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, 1 table

The ISWAT clusters H1+H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. SIRs, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ca. 27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of CMEs into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5-10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver+ (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists., Comment: Accepted for publication in Advances in Space Research

Our current capability of space weather prediction in the Earth's radiation belts is limited to only an hour in advance using the real-time solar wind monitoring at the Lagrangian L1 point. To mitigate the impacts of space weather on telecommunication satellites, several frameworks were proposed to advance the lead time of the prediction. We develop a prototype pipeline called "Helio1D" to forecast ambient solar wind conditions (speed, density, temperature, tangential magnetic field) at L1 with a lead time of 4 days. This pipeline predicts Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and high-speed streams that can increase high-energy fluxes in the radiation belts. The Helio1D pipeline connects the Multi-VP model, which provides real-time solar wind emergence at 0.14 AU, and a 1D MHD model of solar wind propagation. We benchmark the Helio1D pipeline for solar wind speed against observations for the intervals in 2004 - 2013 and 2017 - 2018. We developed a framework based on the Fast Dynamic Time Warping technique that allows us to continuously compare time-series outputs containing CIRs to observations to measure the pipeline's performance. In particular, we use this framework to calibrate and improve the pipeline's performance for operational forecasting. To provide timing and magnitude uncertainties, we model several solar wind conditions in parallel, for a total of 21 profiles corresponding to the various virtual targets including the Earth. This pipeline can be used to feed real-time, daily solar wind forecasting that aims to predict the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere and the radiation belts., Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures. The appendix is available upon request

Context. Solar Orbiter and PSP jointly observed the solar wind for the first time in June 2020, capturing data from very different solar wind streams, calm and Alfv\'enic wind as well as many dynamic structures. Aims. The aim here is to understand the origin and characteristics of the highly dynamic solar wind observed by the two probes, in particular in the vicinity of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). Methods. We analyse the plasma data obtained by PSP and Solar Orbiter in situ during the month of June 2020. We use the Alfv\'en-wave turbulence MHD solar wind model WindPredict-AW, and perform two 3D simulations based on ADAPT solar magnetograms for this period. Results. We show that the dynamic regions measured by both spacecraft are pervaded with flux ropes close to the HCS. These flux ropes are also present in the simulations, forming at the tip of helmet streamers, i.e. at the base of the heliospheric current sheet. The formation mechanism involves a pressure driven instability followed by a fast tearing reconnection process, consistent with the picture of R\'eville et al. (2020a). We further characterize the 3D spatial structure of helmet streamer born flux ropes, which seems, in the simulations, to be related to the network of quasi-separatrices., Comment: 14 pages, 12 Figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

In-situ measurements by several spacecraft have revealed that the solar wind is frequently perturbed by transient structures (magnetic folds, jets, waves, flux-ropes) that propagate rapidly away from the Sun over large distances. Parker Solar Probe has detected frequent rotations of the magnetic field vector at small heliocentric distances, accompanied by surprisingly large solar wind rotation rates. The physical origin of such magnetic field bends, the conditions for their survival across the interplanetary space, and their relation to solar wind rotation are yet to be clearly understood. We traced measured solar wind flows from the spacecraft position down to the surface of the Sun to identify their potential source regions and used a global MHD model of the corona and solar wind to relate them to the rotational state of the low solar corona. We identified regions of the solar corona for which solar wind speed and rotational shear are important and long-lived, that can be favourable to the development of magnetic deflections and to their propagation across extended heights in the solar wind. We show that coronal rotation is highly structured and that enhanced flow shear develops near the boundaries between coronal holes and streamers, around and above pseudo-streamers, even when such boundaries are aligned with the direction of solar rotation. A large fraction of the switchbacks identified by PSP map back to these regions, both in terms of instantaneous magnetic field connectivity and of the trajectories of wind streams that reach the spacecraft. These regions of strong shears are likely to leave an imprint on the solar wind over large distances and to increase the transverse speed variability in the slow solar wind. The simulations and connectivity analysis suggest they can be a source of the switchbacks and spikes observed by Parker Solar Probe., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

The Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) is a nonlinear shear-driven instability that develops at the interface between shear flows in plasmas. KHI has been inferred in various astrophysical plasmas and has been observed in situ at the magnetospheric boundaries of solar-system planets and through remote sensing at the boundaries of coronal mass ejections. While it was hypothesized to play an important role in the mixing of plasmas and in triggering solar wind fluctuations, its direct and unambiguous observation in the solar wind was still lacking. We report in-situ observations of ongoing KHI in the solar wind using Solar Orbiter during its cruise phase. The KHI is found in a shear layer in the slow solar wind in the close vicinity of the Heliospheric Current Sheet, with properties satisfying linear theory for its development. An analysis is performed to derive the local configuration of the KHI. A 2-D MHD simulation is also set up with empirical values to test the stability of the shear layer. In addition, magnetic spectra of the KHI event are analyzed. We find that the observed conditions satisfy the KHI onset criterion from the linear theory analysis, and its development is further confirmed by the simulation. The current sheet geometry analyses are found to be consistent with KHI development. Additionally, we report observations of an ion jet consistent with magnetic reconnection at a compressed current sheet within the KHI interval. The KHI is found to excite magnetic and velocity fluctuations with power-law scalings that approximately follow $k^{-5/3}$ and $k^{-2.8}$ in the inertial and dissipation ranges, respectively. These observations provide robust evidence of KHI development in the solar wind. This sheds new light on the process of shear-driven turbulence as mediated by the KHI with implications for the driving of solar wind fluctuations.

Solar Orbiter is the first space mission observing the solar plasma both in situ and remotely, from a close distance, in and out of the ecliptic. The ultimate goal is to understand how the Sun produces and controls the heliosphere, filling the Solar System and driving the planetary environments. With six remote-sensing and four in-situ instrument suites, the coordination and planning of the operations are essential to address the following four top-level science questions: (1) What drives the solar wind and where does the coronal magnetic field originate? (2) How do solar transients drive heliospheric variability? (3) How do solar eruptions produce energetic particle radiation that fills the heliosphere? (4) How does the solar dynamo work and drive connections between the Sun and the heliosphere? Maximising the mission's science return requires considering the characteristics of each orbit, including the relative position of the spacecraft to Earth (affecting downlink rates), trajectory events (such as gravitational assist manoeuvres), and the phase of the solar activity cycle. Furthermore, since each orbit's science telemetry will be downloaded over the course of the following orbit, science operations must be planned at mission level, rather than at the level of individual orbits. It is important to explore the way in which those science questions are translated into an actual plan of observations that fits into the mission, thus ensuring that no opportunities are missed. First, the overarching goals are broken down into specific, answerable questions along with the required observations and the so-called Science Activity Plan (SAP) is developed to achieve this. The SAP groups objectives that require similar observations into Solar Orbiter Observing Plans (SOOPs), resulting in a strategic, top-level view of the optimal opportunities for science observations during the mission lifetime., Comment: 20 pages, 1 figure, accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysics

The magnetic field shapes the structure of the solar corona but we still know little about the interrelationships between the coronal magnetic field configurations and the resulting quasi-stationary structures observed in coronagraphic images (as streamers, plumes, coronal holes). One way to obtain information on the large-scale structure of the coronal magnetic field is to extrapolate it from photospheric data and compare the results with coronagraphic images. Our aim is to verify if this comparison can be a fast method to check systematically the reliability of the many methods available to reconstruct the coronal magnetic field. Coronal fields are usually extrapolated from photospheric measurements typically in a region close to the central meridian on the solar disk and then compared with coronagraphic images at the limbs, acquired at least 7 days before or after to account for solar rotation, implicitly assuming that no significant changes occurred in the corona during that period. In this work, we combine images from three coronagraphs (SOHO/LASCO-C2 and the two STEREO/SECCHI-COR1) observing the Sun from different viewing angles to build Carrington maps covering the entire corona to reduce the effect of temporal evolution to ~ 5 days. We then compare the position of the observed streamers in these Carrington maps with that of the neutral lines obtained from four different magnetic field extrapolations, to evaluate the performances of the latter in the solar corona. Our results show that the location of coronal streamers can provide important indications to discriminate between different magnetic field extrapolations., Comment: Accepted by A&A the 20th of May, 2019

Solar flares are explosive events in the solar corona, representing fast conversion of magnetic energy into thermal and kinetic energy, and hence radiation, due to magnetic reconnection. Modelling is essential for understanding and predicting these events. However, self-consistent modelling is extremely difficult due to the vast spatial and temporal scale separation between processes involving thermal plasma (normally considered using magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) approach) and non-thermal plasma (requiring a kinetic approach). In this mini-review we consider different approaches aimed at bridging the gap between fluid and kinetic modelling of solar flares. Two types of approaches are discussed: combined MHD/test-particle (MHDTP) models, which can be used for modelling the flaring corona with relatively small numbers of energetic particles, and hybrid fluid-kinetic methods, which can be used for modelling stronger events with higher numbers of energetic particles. Two specific examples are discussed in more detail: MHDTP models of magnetic reconnection and particle acceleration in kink-unstable twisted coronal loops, and a novel reduced-kinetic model of particle transport., Comment: Accepted as a mini-review in Advances in Space Research

The remoteness of the Sun and the harsh conditions prevailing in the solar corona have so far limited the observational data used in the study of solar physics to remote-sensing observations taken either from the ground or from space. In contrast, the `solar wind laboratory' is directly measured in situ by a fleet of spacecraft measuring the properties of the plasma and magnetic fields at specific points in space. Since 2007, the solar-terrestrial relations observatory (STEREO) has been providing images of the solar wind that flows between the solar corona and spacecraft making in-situ measurements. This has allowed scientists to directly connect processes imaged near the Sun with the subsequent effects measured in the solar wind. This new capability prompted the development of a series of tools and techniques to track heliospheric structures through space. This article presents one of these tools, a web-based interface called the 'Propagation Tool' that offers an integrated research environment to study the evolution of coronal and solar wind structures, such as Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). These structures can be propagated from the Sun outwards to or alternatively inwards from planets and spacecraft situated in the inner and outer heliosphere. In this paper, we present the global architecture of the tool, discuss some of the assumptions made to simulate the evolution of the structures and show how the tool connects to different databases., Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, submitted to Planetary and Space Science

The Coronal Multi-channel Polarimeter (CoMP) has previously demonstrated the presence of Doppler velocity fluctuations in the solar corona. The observed fluctuations are thought to be transverse waves, i.e. highly incompressible motions whose restoring force is dominated by the magnetic tension, some of which demonstrate clear periodicity. We aim to exploit CoMP's ability to provide high cadence observations of the off-limb corona to investigate the properties of velocity fluctuations in a range of coronal features, providing insight into how(if) the properties of the waves are influenced by the varying magnetic topology in active regions, quiet Sun and open fields regions. An analysis of Doppler velocity time-series of the solar corona from the $10,747$~{\AA} Iron XIII line is performed, determining the velocity power spectra and using it as a tool to probe wave behaviour. Further, the average phase speed and density for each region are estimated and used to compute the spectra for energy density and energy flux. In addition, we assess the noise levels associated with the CoMP data, deriving analytic formulae for the uncertainty on Doppler velocity measurements and providing a comparison by estimating the noise from the data. It is found that the entire corona is replete with transverse wave behaviour. The corresponding power spectra indicates that the observed velocity fluctuations are predominately generated by stochastic processes, with the spectral slope of the power varying between the different magnetic regions. Most strikingly, all power spectra reveal the presence of enhanced power occurring at $ \sim3$~mHz, potentially implying that the excitation of coronal transverse waves by $p$-modes is a global phenomenon., Comment: Accepted in ApJ

The systematic monitoring of the solar wind in high-cadence and high-resolution heliospheric images taken by the Solar-Terrestrial Relation Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft permits the study of the spatial and temporal evolution of variable solar wind flows from the Sun out to 1~AU, and beyond. As part of the EU Framework 7 (FP7) Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service (HELCATS) project, we have generated a catalogue listing the properties of 190 corotating structures well-observed in images taken by the Heliospheric Imager instruments on-board STEREO-A. We present here one of very few long-term analyses of solar wind structures advected by the background solar wind. This analysis confirms that most of the corotating density structures detected by the heliospheric imagers comprises a series of density inhomogeneities advected by the slow solar wind that eventually become entrained by stream interaction regions. We have derived the spatial-temporal evolution of each of these corotating density structures by using a well-established fitting technique. The mean radial propagation speed of the corotating structures is found to be $311 \pm 31$ km~s$^{-1}$. We predicted the arrival time of each corotating density structure at different probes. We show that the speeds of the corotating density structures derived using our fitting technique track well the long-term variation of the radial speed of the slow solar wind during solar minimum years (2007--2008). Furthermore, we demonstrate that these features originate near the coronal neutral line that eventually becomes the heliospheric current sheet., Comment: 27 pages, 12 figures, published in Solar Physics

The solar wind speed at 1 AU shows variations in latitude and in time which reflect the evolution of the global background magnetic field during the activity cycle. It is commonly accepted that the terminal wind speed in a magnetic flux-tube is anti-correlated with its expansion ratio, which motivated the definition of widely-used semi-empirical scaling laws relating one to the other. In practice, such scaling laws require ad-hoc corrections. A predictive law based solely on physical principles is still missing. We test whether the flux-tube expansion is the controlling factor of the wind speed at all phases of the cycle and at all latitudes using a very large sample of wind-carrying open magnetic flux-tubes. We furthermore search for additional physical parameters based on the geometry of the coronal magnetic field which have an influence on the terminal wind flow speed. We use MHD simulations of the corona and wind coupled to a dynamo model to provide a large statistical ensemble of open flux-tubes which we analyse conjointly in order to identify relations of dependence between the wind speed and geometrical parameters of the flux-tubes which are valid globally (for all latitudes and moments of the cycle). Our study confirms that the terminal speed of the solar wind depends very strongly on the geometry of the open magnetic flux-tubes through which it flows. The total flux-tube expansion is more clearly anti-correlated with the wind speed for fast rather than for slow wind flows, and effectively controls the locations of these flows during solar minima. Overall, the actual asymptotic wind speeds attained are also strongly dependent on field-line inclination and magnetic field amplitude at the foot-points. We suggest ways of including these parameters on future predictive scaling-laws for the solar wind speed., Comment: Accepted for publicaton on Astronomy & Astrophysics

Twisted magnetic fields should be ubiquitous in flare-producing active regions where the magnetic fields are strongly non-potential. It has been shown that reconnection in helical magnetic coronal loops results in plasma heating and particle acceleration distributed within a large volume, including the lower coronal and chromospheric sections of the loops. This scenario can be an alternative to the standard flare model, where particles are accelerated only in a small volume located in the upper corona. We use a combination of MHD simulations and test-particle methods, which describe the development of kink instability and magnetic reconnection in twisted coronal loops using resistive compressible MHD, and incorporate atmospheric stratification and large-scale loop curvature. The resulting distributions of hot plasma let us estimate thermal X-ray emission intensities. The electric and magnetic fields obtained are used to calculate electron trajectories using the guiding-centre approximation. These trajectories combined with the MHD plasma density distributions let us deduce synthetic HXR bremsstrahlung intensities. Our simulations emphasise that the geometry of the emission patterns produced by hot plasma in flaring twisted coronal loops can differ from the actual geometry of the underlying magnetic fields. The twist angles revealed by the emission threads (SXR) are consistently lower than the field-line twist present at the onset of the kink-instability. HXR emission due to the interaction of energetic electrons with the stratified background are concentrated at the loop foot-points in these simulations, even though the electrons are accelerated everywhere within the coronal volume of the loop. The maximum of HXR emission consistently precedes that of SXR emission, with the HXR light-curve being approximately proportional to the temporal derivative of the SXR light-curve., Comment: (accepted for publication on A&A)

Solar flares are associated with intense soft X-ray emission generated by the hot flaring plasma. Kink unstable twisted flux-ropes provide a source of magnetic energy which can be released impulsively and account for the flare plasma heating. We compute the temporal evolution of the thermal X-ray emission in kink-unstable coronal loops using MHD simulations and discuss the results of with respect to solar flare observations. The model consists of a highly twisted loop embedded in a region of uniform and untwisted coronal magnetic field. We let the kink instability develop, compute the evolution of the plasma properties in the loop (density, temperature) without accounting for mass exchange with the chromosphere. We then deduce the X-ray emission properties of the plasma during the whole flaring episode. During the initial phase of the instability plasma heating is mostly adiabatic. Ohmic diffusion takes over as the instability saturates, leading to strong and impulsive heating (> 20 MK), to a quick enhancement of X-ray emission and to the hardening of the thermal X-ray spectrum. The temperature distribution of the plasma becomes broad, with the emission measure depending strongly on temperature. Significant emission measures arise for plasma at temperatures T > 9 MK. The magnetic flux-rope then relaxes progressively towards a lower energy state as it reconnects with the background flux. The loop plasma suffers smaller sporadic heating events but cools down conductively. The total thermal X-ray emission slowly fades away during this phase, and the high temperature component of emission measure distribution converges to the power-law distribution $EM\propto T^{-4.2}$. The amount of twist deduced directly from the X-ray emission patterns is considerably lower than the maximum magnetic twist in the simulated flux-ropes., Comment: submitted to A&A

We study the influence of a dynamo magnetic field on the buoyant rise and emergence of twisted magnetic flux-ropes, and their influence on the global external magnetic field. We ran 3D MHD numerical simulations using the ASH code and analysed the dynamical evolution of such buoyant flux-ropes from the bottom of the convection zone until the post-emergence phases. The global nature of this model represents very crudely and inaccurately the local dynamics of the buoyant rise, but allows to study the influence of global effects such as self-consistently generated differential rotation, meridional circulation and Coriolis forces. Although motivated by the solar context, this model cannot be thought of as a realistic model of the rise of magnetic structures and their emergence in the Sun where the local dynamics are completely different. The properties of initial phases of the buoyant rise in good agreement with previous studies. However, the effects of the interaction of the background dynamo field become increase as the flux-ropes evolve. During the buoyant rise across the CZ, the flux-rope's magnetic field strength and scales as $rho^a$, with $a\lesssim 1$. An increase of velocity, density and current precedes flux emergence at all longitudes. The geometry, latitude and relative orientation of the flux-ropes with respect to the background magnetic field influences the rise speeds, zonal flow amplitudes (which develop within the flux-ropes) and the corresponding surface signatures. This influences the morphology, duration and amplitude of the associated surface shearing and Poynting flux. The emerged flux influences the system's global polarity, leading in some cases to a polarity reversal while inhibiting background dynamo from doing so in some others. The emerged magnetic flux is slowly advected poleward, while being diffused and assimilated by the background dynamo field., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

The dynamical response of the solar corona to surface and sub-surface perturbations depends on the chromospheric stratification, and specifically on how efficiently these layers reflect or transmit incoming Alfv\'en waves. While it would be desirable to include the chromospheric layers in the numerical simulations used to study such phenomena, that is most often not feasible. We defined and tested a simple approximation allowing the study of coronal phenomena while taking into account a parametrised chromospheric reflectivity. We addressed the problems of the transmission of the surface rotation to the corona and that of the generation of polar plumes by Alfv\'en waves (Pinto et al., 2010, 2011). We found that a high (yet partial) effective chromospheric reflectivity is required to properly describe the angular momentum balance in the corona and the way the surface differential rotation is transmitted upwards. Alfv\'en wave-driven polar plumes maintain their properties for a wide range of values for the reflectivity, but they become bursty (and eventually disrupt) when the limit of total reflection is attained., Comment: Solar Wind 13: Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Solar Wind Conference