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Background: The Brief Intervention for Weight Loss Trial enrolled 1882 consecutively attending primary care patients who were obese and participants were randomised to physicians opportunistically endorsing, offering, and facilitating a referral to a weight loss programme (support) or recommending weight loss (advice). After one year, the support group lost 1.4 kg more (95%CI 0.9 to 2.0): 2.4 kg versus 1.0 kg. We use a cohort simulation to predict effects on disease incidence, quality of life, and healthcare costs over 20 years., Methods: Randomly sampling from the trial population, we created a virtual cohort of 20 million adults and assigned baseline morbidity. We applied the weight loss observed in the trial and assumed weight regain over four years. Using epidemiological data, we assigned the incidence of 12 weight-related diseases depending on baseline disease status, age, gender, body mass index. From a healthcare perspective, we calculated the quality adjusted life years (QALYs) accruing and calculated the incremental difference between trial arms in costs expended in delivering the intervention and healthcare costs accruing. We discounted future costs and benefits at 1.5% over 20 years., Results: Compared with advice, the support intervention reduced the cumulative incidence of weight-related disease by 722/100,000 people, 0.33% of all weight-related disease. The incremental cost of support over advice was £2.01million/100,000. However, the support intervention reduced health service costs by £5.86 million/100,000 leading to a net saving of £3.85 million/100,000. The support intervention produced 992 QALYs/100,000 people relative to advice., Conclusions: A brief intervention in which physicians opportunistically endorse, offer, and facilitate a referral to a behavioural weight management service to patients with a BMI of at least 30 kg/m 2 reduces healthcare costs and improves health more than advising weight loss.

Background: Child stunting is a major public health problem, afflicting 155 million people worldwide. Lack of animal-source protein has been identified as a risk, but effects of animal protein supplementation are not well established., Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate effects of animal protein supplementation in mothers, preterm infants, and term infants/children on birth and growth outcomes., Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, Web of Science, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature were searched for randomized controlled trials of animal protein supplementation in mothers or infants and children (≤age 5 y), evaluating measures of anthropometry (≤age 18 y). Main outcomes included birth weight, low birth weight, small for gestational age at birth; height, height-for-age, weight, weight-for-age, weight-for-length, stunting, and wasting ≤18 y of age. Data were extracted independently in duplicate, and findings pooled using inverse variance meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored using I2, stratified analysis, and meta-regression, and publication bias by funnel plots, Egger's test, and fill/trim methods., Results: Of 6808 unique abstracts and 357 full-text articles, 62 trials were included. The 62 trials comprised over 30,000 participants across 5 continents, including formula-based supplementation in infants and food-based supplementation in pregnancy and childhood. Maternal supplementation increased birth weight by 0.06 kg, and both formula and food-based supplementation in term infants/young children increased weight by ≤0.14 kg. Neither formula nor food-based supplementation for term infants/young children increased height, whereas the height-for-age z-score was increased in the food-based (+0.06 z-score) but not formula-based (-0.11 z-score) trials reporting this outcome. In term infants, the weight-for-length z-score was increased in trials of formula (+0.24 z-score) and food supplementation (+0.06 z-score), whereas food supplementation was also associated with reduced odds of stunting (-13%)., Conclusions: Supplementation of protein from animal-source foods generally increased weight and weight-for-length in children, but with more limited effects on other growth outcomes such as attained height., (Copyright © American Society for Nutrition 2019.)

High protein intake in young children is associated with excess gains in weight and body fat, but the specific role of different protein sources has yet to be described. The study aimed to investigate the role of different types of protein in the post-weaning stage on weight, BMI and overweight/obesity at 60 months. Intakes of animal, dairy and plant protein and a dietary pattern characterising variation in protein types at 21 months of age were estimated using a 3-d diet diary in a cohort of 2154 twins; weight and height were recorded every 3 months from birth to 60 months. Longitudinal mixed-effect models investigated the associations between sources of protein intake or dietary pattern scores and BMI, weight and overweight/obesity from 21 months up to 60 months. Adjusting for confounders, dairy protein intake at 21 months was positively associated with greater weight (46 (95 % CI 21, 71) g and BMI up to 60 months (0·04 (95 % CI 0·004, 0·070) kg/m2) and the odds of overweight/obesity at 3 years (OR 1·12; 95 % CI 1·00, 1·24). Milk showed associations of similar magnitude. A dietary pattern low in dairy protein and high in plant protein was associated with lower weight gain up to 60 months, but not overweight/obesity. Intake of dairy products in early childhood is most strongly associated with weight gain, compared with other protein sources. A dietary pattern characterised by lower protein intake and greater protein source diversity at 2 years may confer a lower risk of excess weight gain.

The burden of liver disease in Europe continues to grow. We aimed to describe the epidemiology of liver diseases and their risk factors in European countries, identifying public health interventions that could impact on these risk factors to reduce the burden of liver disease. As part of the HEPAHEALTH project we extracted information on historical and current prevalence and mortality from national and international literature and databases on liver disease in 35 countries in the World Health Organization European region, as well as historical and recent prevalence data on their main determinants; alcohol consumption, obesity and hepatitis B and C virus infections. We extracted information from peer-reviewed and grey literature to identify public health interventions targeting these risk factors. The epidemiology of liver disease is diverse, with variations in the exact composition of diseases and the trends in risk factors which drive them. Prevalence and mortality data indicate that increasing cirrhosis and liver cancer may be linked to dramatic increases in harmful alcohol consumption in Northern European countries, and viral hepatitis epidemics in Eastern and Southern European countries. Countries with historically low levels of liver disease may experience an increase in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in the future, given the rise of obesity across most European countries. Liver disease in Europe is a serious issue, with increasing cirrhosis and liver cancer. The public health and hepatology communities are uniquely placed to implement measures aimed at reducing their causes: harmful alcohol consumption, child and adult obesity, and chronic infection with hepatitis viruses, which will in turn reduce the burden of liver disease., (Copyright © 2018 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Air pollution damages health by promoting the onset of some non-communicable diseases (NCDs), putting additional strain on the National Health Service (NHS) and social care. This study quantifies the total health and related NHS and social care cost burden due to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in England., Method and Findings: Air pollutant concentration surfaces from land use regression models and cost data from hospital admissions data and a literature review were fed into a microsimulation model, that was run from 2015 to 2035. Different scenarios were modelled: (1) baseline 'no change' scenario; (2) individuals' pollutant exposure is reduced to natural (non-anthropogenic) levels to compute the disease cases attributable to PM2.5 and NO2; (3) PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations reduced by 1 μg/m3; and (4) NO2 annual European Union limit values reached (40 μg/m3). For the 18 years after baseline, the total cumulative cost to the NHS and social care is estimated at £5.37 billion for PM2.5 and NO2 combined, rising to £18.57 billion when costs for diseases for which there is less robust evidence are included. These costs are due to the cumulative incidence of air-pollution-related NCDs, such as 348,878 coronary heart disease cases estimated to be attributable to PM2.5 and 573,363 diabetes cases estimated to be attributable to NO2 by 2035. Findings from modelling studies are limited by the conceptual model, assumptions, and the availability and quality of input data., Conclusions: Approximately 2.5 million cases of NCDs attributable to air pollution are predicted by 2035 if PM2.5 and NO2 stay at current levels, making air pollution an important public health priority. In future work, the modelling framework should be updated to include multi-pollutant exposure-response functions, as well as to disaggregate results by socioeconomic status., Competing Interests: AB and BF (Public Health England) were involved in defining the project scope, interpreting data and reviewing/commenting on draft reports produced by the research team. The other authors declare no competing interest.

(1) Background: The effects of zinc supplementation on child growth, and prior reviews of these studies, have shown mixed results. We aim to systematically review and meta-analyze randomized controlled trials evaluating effects of preventive zinc supplementation for 3 months or longer during pregnancy or in children up to age 5 years on pregnancy outcomes and child growth; (2) Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and trial registries for eligible trials up to October 10, 2017. Inclusion selection and data extractions were performed independently and in duplicate. Study quality was evaluated by the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Findings were pooled using random effects meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed by I ² and τ² statistic, stratified analyses, and meta-regression, and publication bias by Egger's and Begg's tests; (3) Results: Seventy-eight trials with 34,352 unique participants were identified, including 24 during pregnancy and 54 in infancy/childhood. Maternal zinc supplementation did not significantly increase birth weight (weighted mean difference (WMD) = 0.08 kg, 95%CI: -0.05, 0.22) or decrease the risk of low birth weight (RR = 0.76, 95%CI: 0.52-1.11). Zinc supplementation after birth increased height (WMD = 0.23 cm, 95%CI: 0.09-0.38), weight (WMD = 0.14 kg, 95%CI: 0.07-0.21), and weight-for-age Z -score (WMD = 0.04, 95%CI: 0.001-0.087), but not height-for-age Z -score (WMD = 0.02, 95%CI: -0.01-0.06) or weight-for-height Z score (WMD = 0.02, 95%CI: -0.03-0.06). Child age at zinc supplementation appeared to modify the effects on height ( P -interaction = 0.002) and HAZ ( P -interaction = 0.06), with larger effects of supplementation starting at age ≥2 years (WMD for height = 1.37 cm, 95%CI: 0.50-2.25; WMD for HAZ = 0.12, 95%CI: 0.05-0.19). No significant effects of supplementation were found on the risk of stunting, underweight or wasting; (4) Conclusion: Although the possibility of publication bias and small study effect could not be excluded, the current meta-analysis indicates that zinc supplementation in infants and early childhood, but not pregnancy, increases specific growth outcomes, with evidence for a potentially stronger effect after 2 years of age. These findings inform recommendation and policy development for zinc supplementation to improve growth among young children., Competing Interests: Mozaffarian reports ad hoc honoraria or consulting from Boston Heart Diagnostics, Haas Avocado Board, Astra Zeneca, GOED, DSM, Pollock Communications, and Life Sciences Research Organization; chapter royalties from UpToDate; and scientific advisory board for Elysium Health, and Omada Health. Harvard University has been assigned patent US8889739 B2, listing Mozaffarian as one of three co-inventors, for “Use of transpalmitoleic acid in identifying and treating metabolic disease”. Duggan reports royalties from UpToDate, and PMPH; All other authors declare no conflict of interest. The study is sponsored by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, grant number OPP1099505. CPD was supported in part by NIH grants K24DK104676 and 2P30DK040561. The founding sponsors had no role in the design of the study; in the collection, analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript, and in the decision to publish the results.

Background: Epidemiologic studies link maternal seafood and n-3 (ω-3) polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) consumption with improved childhood cognitive development; trials show mixed results., Objective: We investigated effects of n-3 PUFA supplementation on child cognitive and visual outcomes., Methods: We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed randomized controlled trials of n-3 PUFA supplementation in mothers or infants (age ≤2 y) and evaluated standardized measures of cognitive or visual development up to age 18 y. Of 6286 abstracts and 669 full-text articles, 38 trials with 53 intervention arms were included. Data were extracted independently in duplicate. Findings were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis across supplementation periods (maternal, preterm, term infant); we also explored subgroup analyses stratified by supplementation period. Heterogeneity was explored using I2, stratified analysis, and meta-regression. Cognitive development was assessed by Bayley Scales of Infant Development mental and psychomotor developmental indexes (MDI, PDI) and intelligence quotient (IQ); visual acuity was assessed by electrophysiological or behavioral measures., Results: The 38 trials (mothers: n = 13; preterm infants: n = 7; term infants: n = 18) included 5541 participants. When we explored effects during different periods of supplementation, n-3 PUFA supplementation improved MDI in preterm infants (3.33; 95% CI: 0.72, 5.93), without statistically significant effects on PDI or IQ in different intervention period subgroups. Visual acuity [measured as the logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR)] was improved by supplementation in preterm (-0.08 logMAR; 95% CI: -0.14, -0.01 logMAR) and term infants (-0.08 logMAR; 95% CI: -0.11, -0.05 logMAR), with a nonsignificant trend for maternal supplementation (-0.02 logMAR; 95% CI: -0.04, 0.00 logMAR). In main analyses pooling all supplementation periods, compared with placebo, n-3 PUFA supplementation improved MDI (n = 21 trials; 0.91; 95% CI: 0.005, 1.81; P = 0.049), PDI (n = 21 trials; 1.06 higher index; 95% CI: 0.10, 2.03; P = 0.031), and visual acuity (n = 24; -0.063 logMAR; 95% CI: -0.084, -0.041 logMAR; P < 0.001) but not IQ (n = 7; 0.20; 95% CI: -1.56, 1.96, P = 0.83), although few studies assessed this endpoint. Potential publication bias was identified for MDI (Eggers P = 0.005), but not other endpoints. Significant differences in findings were not identified by world region, race, maternal education, age at outcome assessment, supplementation duration, DHA or EPA dose, DHA:AA ratio, or study quality score (P-interaction > 0.05 each)., Conclusions: n-3 PUFA supplementation improves childhood psychomotor and visual development, without significant effects on global IQ later in childhood, although the latter conclusion is based on fewer studies.

Background: Evidence exist that primary care referral to an open-group behavioural programme is an effective strategy for management of obesity, but little evidence on optimal intervention duration is available. We aimed to establish whether 52-week referral to an open-group weight-management programme would achieve greater weight loss and improvements in a range of health outcomes and be more cost-effective than the current practice of 12-week referrals., Methods: In this non-blinded, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial, we recruited participants who were aged 18 years or older and had body-mass index (BMI) of 28 kg/m 2 or higher from 23 primary care practices in England. Participants were randomly assigned (2:5:5) to brief advice and self-help materials, a weight-management programme (Weight Watchers) for 12 weeks, or the same weight-management programme for 52 weeks. We followed-up participants over 2 years. The primary outcome was weight at 1 year of follow-up, analysed with mixed-effects models according to intention-to-treat principles and adjusted for centre and baseline weight. In a hierarchical closed-testing procedure, we compared combined behavioural programme arms with brief intervention, then compared the 12-week programme and 52-week programme. We did a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis using person-level data and modelled outcomes over a 25-year time horizon using microsimulation. This study is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN82857232., Findings: Between Oct 18, 2012, and Feb 10, 2014, we enrolled 1269 participants. 1267 eligible participants were randomly assigned to the brief intervention (n=211), the 12-week programme (n=528), and the 52-week programme (n=528). Two participants in the 12-week programme had been found to be ineligible shortly after randomisation and were excluded from the analysis. 823 (65%) of 1267 participants completed an assessment at 1 year and 856 (68%) participants at 2 years. All eligible participants were included in the analyses. At 1 year, mean weight changes in the groups were -3·26 kg (brief intervention), -4·75 kg (12-week programme), and -6·76 kg (52-week programme). Participants in the behavioural programme lost more weight than those in the brief intervention (adjusted difference -2·71 kg, 95% CI -3·86 to -1·55; p<0·0001). The 52-week programme was more effective than the 12-week programme (-2·14 kg, -3·05 to -1·22; p<0·0001). Differences between groups were still significant at 2 years. No adverse events related to the intervention were reported. Over 2 years, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; compared with brief intervention) was £159 per kg lost for the 52-week programme and £91 per kg for the 12-week programme. Modelled over 25 years after baseline, the ICER for the 12-week programme was dominant compared with the brief intervention. The ICER for the 52-week programme was cost-effective compared with the brief intervention (£2394 per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]) and the 12-week programme (£3804 per QALY)., Interpretation: For adults with overweight or obesity, referral to this open-group behavioural weight-loss programme for at least 12 weeks is more effective than brief advice and self-help materials. A 52-week programme produces greater weight loss and other clinical benefits than a 12-week programme and, although it costs more, modelling suggests that the 52-week programme is cost-effective in the longer term., Funding: National Prevention Research Initiative, Weight Watchers International (as part of an UK Medical Research Council Industrial Collaboration Award)., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Although vitamin A supplementation reduces child mortality, it remains unclear whether dosing frequency, total dose, or duration modifies effectiveness., Objective: Determine whether mortality effects of vitamin A vary by dosing frequency, total dose, or duration., Methods: Meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials, identified by systematic review and expert opinion, utilizing relatively standard World Health Organization doses in children <5 years. Meta-regression evaluated whether mortality effects varied by dosing frequency, total dose, or supplementation duration., Results: Identified 17 trials, including 1,180,718 children, mean (standard deviation [SD]) age 31.5 (15.4) months at baseline. Supplementation frequency ranged every 3 months-every 2 years, supplementation duration 4-60 months (mean = 15.4; SD = 12.8), and total dose 134,361-2,200,000 IU (mean = 667,132 IU; SD = 540,795). Compared with control, vitamin A reduced mortality 22% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10-32; P = 0.002). This protective effect was not modified by increasing supplementation frequency (dose/year: relative risk [RR] = 1.02; 95% CI = 0.98-1.06; P = .22), total dose (per 200,000 IU: RR = 1.02; 95% CI = 0.97-1.06; P = .31), nor supplementation duration (per year: RR = 1.06; 95% CI = 0.97-1.15; P = 0.14). Multivariate meta-regression showed similar results. Sensitivity analyses excluding 1 controversial trial (Aswathi 2013) did not alter findings., Conclusion: Results confirm benefits of vitamin A supplementation in children <5 years in nations with vitamin A deficiency, without influence of frequency, total dose, or dosing duration within ranges evaluated. These findings inform design and efficiency of vitamin A supplementation policies.

Background: Dietary guidelines recommend avoiding foods high in saturated fat. Yet, emerging evidence suggests cardiometabolic benefits of dairy products and dairy fat. Evidence on the role of butter, with high saturated dairy fat content, for total mortality, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes remains unclear. We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the association of butter consumption with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes in general populations., Methods and Findings: We searched 9 databases from inception to May 2015 without restriction on setting, or language, using keywords related to butter consumption and cardiometabolic outcomes. Prospective cohorts or randomized clinical trials providing estimates of effects of butter intake on mortality, cardiovascular disease including coronary heart disease and stroke, or diabetes in adult populations were included. One investigator screened titles and abstracts; and two reviewed full-text articles independently in duplicate, and extracted study and participant characteristics, exposure and outcome definitions and assessment methods, analysis methods, and adjusted effects and associated uncertainty, all independently in duplicate. Study quality was evaluated by a modified Newcastle-Ottawa score. Random and fixed effects meta-analysis pooled findings, with heterogeneity assessed using the I2 statistic and publication bias by Egger's test and visual inspection of funnel plots. We identified 9 publications including 15 country-specific cohorts, together reporting on 636,151 unique participants with 6.5 million person-years of follow-up and including 28,271 total deaths, 9,783 cases of incident cardiovascular disease, and 23,954 cases of incident diabetes. No RCTs were identified. Butter consumption was weakly associated with all-cause mortality (N = 9 country-specific cohorts; per 14g(1 tablespoon)/day: RR = 1.01, 95%CI = 1.00, 1.03, P = 0.045); was not significantly associated with any cardiovascular disease (N = 4; RR = 1.00, 95%CI = 0.98, 1.02; P = 0.704), coronary heart disease (N = 3; RR = 0.99, 95%CI = 0.96, 1.03; P = 0.537), or stroke (N = 3; RR = 1.01, 95%CI = 0.98, 1.03; P = 0.737), and was inversely associated with incidence of diabetes (N = 11; RR = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.93, 0.99; P = 0.021). We did not identify evidence for heterogeneity nor publication bias., Conclusions: This systematic review and meta-analysis suggests relatively small or neutral overall associations of butter with mortality, CVD, and diabetes. These findings do not support a need for major emphasis in dietary guidelines on either increasing or decreasing butter consumption, in comparison to other better established dietary priorities; while also highlighting the need for additional investigation of health and metabolic effects of butter and dairy fat.

Background: Few large epidemiologic studies have investigated the role of postweaning protein intake in excess weight and adiposity of young children, despite children in the United Kingdom consistently consuming protein in excess of their physiologic requirements., Objective: We investigated whether a higher proportion of protein intake from energy beyond weaning is associated with greater weight gain, higher body mass index (BMI), and risk of overweight or obesity in children up to 5 y of age., Design: Participants were 2154 twins from the Gemini cohort. Dietary intake was collected by using a 3-d diet diary when the children had a mean age of 21 mo. Weight and height were collected every 3 mo, from birth to 5 y. Longitudinal models investigated associations of protein intake with BMI, weight, and height, with adjustment for age at diet diary, sex, total energy intake, birth weight/length, and rate of prior growth and clustering within families. Logistic regression investigated protein intake in relation to the odds of overweight or obesity at 3 and 5 y of age., Results: A total of 2154 children had a mean ± SD of 5.7 ± 3.2 weight and height measurements up to 5 y. Total energy from protein was associated with higher BMI (β = 0.043; 95% CI: 0.011, 0.075) and weight (β = 0.052; 95% CI: 0.031, 0.074) but not height (β = 0.088; 95% CI: -0.038, 0.213) between 21 mo and 5 y. Substituting percentage energy from fat or carbohydrate for percentage energy from protein was associated with decreases in BMI and weight. Protein intake was associated with a trend in increased odds of overweight or obesity at 3 y (OR = 1.10; 95% CI 0.99, 1.22, P = 0.075), but the effect was not statistically significant at 5 y., Conclusion: A higher proportion of energy from protein during the complementary feeding stage is associated with greater increases in weight and BMI in early childhood in this large cohort of United Kingdom children.

Background: Randomized trials assessing BCG vaccine protection against tuberculosis have widely varying results, for reasons that are not well understood., Methods: We examined associations of trial setting and design with BCG efficacy against pulmonary and miliary or meningeal tuberculosis by conducting a systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regression., Results: We identified 18 trials reporting pulmonary tuberculosis and 6 reporting miliary or meningeal tuberculosis. Univariable meta-regression indicated efficacy against pulmonary tuberculosis varied according to 3 characteristics. Protection appeared greatest in children stringently tuberculin tested, to try to exclude prior infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis or sensitization to environmental mycobacteria (rate ratio [RR], 0.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], .18-.37), or infants (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, .29-.58). Protection was weaker in children not stringently tested (RR, 0.59; 95% CI, .35-1.01) and older individuals stringently or not stringently tested (RR, 0.88; 95% CI, .59-1.31 and RR, 0.81; 95% CI, .55-1.22, respectively). Protection was higher in trials further from the equator where environmental mycobacteria are less and with lower risk of diagnostic detection bias. These associations were attenuated in a multivariable model, but each had an independent effect. There was no evidence that efficacy was associated with BCG strain. Protection against meningeal and miliary tuberculosis was also high in infants (RR, 0.1; 95% CI, .01-.77) and children stringently tuberculin tested (RR, 0.08; 95% CI, .03-.25)., Conclusions: Absence of prior M. tuberculosis infection or sensitization with environmental mycobacteria is associated with higher efficacy of BCG against pulmonary tuberculosis and possibly against miliary and meningeal tuberculosis. Evaluations of new tuberculosis vaccines should account for the possibility that prior infection may mask or block their effects.

Background: The early years in life are increasingly recognized as a critical period for the development of diet-related behavioral traits. However, discussions continue on the relative role of genes and the environment in determining dietary intake, particularly in young children for whom detailed dietary information is limited., Objectives: This study tested the hypothesis that diet in early childhood is primarily determined by the environment rather than by genes. A secondary aim was to characterize the early childhood diet., Design: A classic twin design used 3-d dietary data collected at age 21 mo from the Gemini cohort. From the full sample of 2402 families with twins, dietary diaries were available for 1216 twin pairs (384 monozygotic and 832 dizygotic pairs) after exclusions. Intakes of macronutrients, food, and beverages were estimated. Twin analyses quantified the contributions of genetic and environmental factors to population variation in intake., Results: At age 21 mo, children consumed small portions of a wide range of family foods. The shared environment was the predominant determinant, contributing between 66% (95% CI: 52%, 77%; milk-based desserts) and 97% (95% CI: 95%, 98%; juice) of the variation in intake. Genetic factors were estimated to account for between 4% (95% CI: 0%, 10%; savory snacks) and 18% (95% CI: 14%, 23%; bread) of dietary intake variation., Conclusion: Shared environmental influences are the predominant drivers of dietary intake in very young children, indicating the importance of factors such as the home food environment and parental behaviors.

Background: Recent evidence suggests that the duration of protection by bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) may exceed previous estimates with potential implications for estimating clinical and cost-efficacy., Objectives: To estimate the protection and duration of protection provided by BCG vaccination against tuberculosis, explore how this protection changes with time since vaccination, and examine the reasons behind the variation in protection and the rate of waning of protection., Data Sources: Electronic databases including MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica Database (EMBASE), Cochrane Databases, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), Web of Knowledge, Biosciences Information Service (BIOSIS), Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACs), MEDCARIB Database, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) were searched from inception to May 2009. Index to Theses, System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe (SIGLE), Centre for Agricultural Bioscience International (CABI) Abstracts, Scopus, Article First, Academic Complete, Africa-Wide Information, Google Scholar, Global Health, British National Bibliography for Report Literature, and clinical trial registration websites were searched from inception to October 2009., Review Methods: Electronic databases searches, screening of identified studies, data extraction and analysis were undertaken. Meta-analysis was used to present numerical and graphical summaries of clinical efficacy and efficacy by time since vaccination. Evidence of heterogeneity was assessed using the tau-squared statistic. Meta-regression allowed the investigation of observed heterogeneity. Factors investigated included BCG strain, latitude, stringency of pre-BCG vaccination tuberculin testing, age at vaccination, site of disease, study design and vulnerability to biases. Rate of waning of protection was estimated using the ratio of the measure of efficacy after 10 years compared with the efficacy in the first 10 years of a study., Results: Study selection. A total of 21,030 references were identified, providing data on 132 studies after abstract and full-text review. Efficacy. Protection against pulmonary tuberculosis in adults is variable, ranging from substantial protection in the UK MRC trial {rate ratio 0.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16 to 0.31]}, to absence of clinically important benefit, as in the large Chingleput trial [rate ratio 1.05 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.25)] and greater in latitudes further away from the equator. BCG vaccination efficacy was usually high, and varied little by form of disease (with higher protection against meningeal and miliary tuberculosis) or study design when BCG vaccination was given only to infants or to children after strict screening for tuberculin sensitivity. High levels of protection against death were observed from both trials and observational studies. The observed protective effect of BCG vaccination did not differ by the strain of BCG vaccine used in trials., Duration: Reviewed studies showed that BCG vaccination protects against pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis for up to 10 years. Most studies either did not follow up participants for long enough or had very few cases after 15 years. This should not be taken to indicate an absence of effect: five studies (one trial and four observational studies) provided evidence of measurable protection at least 15 years after vaccination. Efficacy declined with time. The rate of decline was variable, with faster decline in latitudes further from the equator and in situations where BCG vaccination was given to tuberculin-sensitive participants after stringent tuberculin testing., Limitations: The main limitation of this review relates to quality of included trials, most of which were conducted before current standards for reporting were formulated. In addition, data were lacking in some areas and the review had to rely on evidence from observational studies., Conclusions: BCG vaccination protection against tuberculosis varies between populations, to an extent that cannot be attributed to chance alone. Failure to exclude those already sensitised to mycobacteria and study latitude closer to the equator were associated with lower efficacy. These factors explained most of the observed variation. There is good evidence that BCG vaccination protection declines with time and that protection can last for up to 10 years. Data on protection beyond 15 years are limited; however, a small number of trials and observational studies suggest that BCG vaccination may protect for longer. Further studies are required to investigate the duration of protection by BCG vaccination., Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.