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Clinical studies in healthy volunteers challenged with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a constituent of the cell wall of Gram-negative bacteria, represent a key model to characterize the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-mediated inflammatory response. Here, we developed a mathematical modelling framework to quantitatively characterize the dynamics and inter-individual variability of multiple inflammatory biomarkers in healthy volunteer LPS challenge studies. Data from previously reported LPS challenge studies were used, which included individual-level time-course data for tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin 6 (IL-6), interleukin 8 (IL-8) and C-reactive protein (CRP). A one-compartment model with first-order elimination was used to capture the LPS kinetics. The relationships between LPS and inflammatory markers was characterized using indirect response (IDR) models. Delay differential equations were applied to quantify the delays in biomarker response profiles. For LPS kinetics, our estimates of clearance and volume of distribution were 35.7 L h(-1) and 6.35 L, respectively. Our model adequately captured the dynamics of multiple inflammatory biomarkers. The time delay for the secretion of TNF-alpha, IL-6 and IL-8 were estimated to be 0.924, 1.46 and 1.48 h, respectively. A second IDR model was used to describe the induced changes of CRP in relation to IL-6, with a delayed time of 4.2 h. The quantitative models developed in this study can be used to inform design of clinical LPS challenge studies and may help to translate preclinical LPS challenge studies to humans.

Changes that accompany older age can alter the pharmacokinetics (PK), pharmacodynamics (PD), and likelihood of adverse effects (AEs) of a drug. However, older adults, especially the oldest or those with multiple chronic health conditions, polypharmacy, or frailty, are often under-represented in clinical trials of new drugs. Deficits in the current conduct of clinical evaluation of drugs for older adults and potential steps to fill those knowledge gaps are presented in this communication. The most important step is to increase clinical trial enrollment of older adults who are representative of the target treatment population. Unnecessary eligibility criteria should be eliminated. Physical and financial barriers to participation should be removed. Incentives could be created for inclusion of older adults. Enrollment goals should be established based on intended treatment indications, prevalence of the condition, and feasibility. Relevant clinical pharmacology data need to be obtained early enough to guide dosing and reduce risk for participation of older adults. Relevant PK and PD data as well as patient-centered outcomes should be measured during trials. Trial data should be analyzed for differences in PK, PD, effectiveness, and safety arising from differences in age or from the presence of conditions common in older adults. Postmarket evaluations with real-world evidence and drug labeling updates throughout the product lifecycle reflecting new knowledge are also needed. A comprehensive plan is needed to ensure adequate evaluation of the safety and effectiveness of drugs in older adults.

There are several antibody therapeutics in preclinical and clinical development, industry-wide, for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Due to the limited permeability of antibodies across brain barriers, the quantitative understanding of antibody exposure in the CNS is important for the design of antibody drug characteristics and determining appropriate dosing regimens. We have developed a minimal physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (mPBPK) model of the brain for antibody therapeutics, which was reduced from an existing multi-species platform brain PBPK model. All non-brain compartments were combined into a single tissue compartment and cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) compartments were combined into a single CSF compartment. The mPBPK model contains 16 differential equations, compared to 100 in the original PBPK model, and improved simulation speed approximately 11-fold. Area under the curve ratios for minimal versus full PBPK models were close to 1 across species for both brain and plasma compartments, which indicates the reduced model simulations are similar to those of the original model. The minimal model retained detailed physiological processes of the brain while not significantly affecting model predictability, which supports the law of parsimony in the context of balancing model complexity with added predictive power. The minimal model has a variety of applications for supporting the preclinical development of antibody therapeutics and can be expanded to include target information for evaluating target engagement to inform clinical dose selection. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10928-021-09776-7.

Immunogenicity against therapeutic proteins frequently causes attrition owing to its potential impact on pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, efficacy, and safety. Predicting immunogenicity is complex because of its multifactorial drivers, including compound properties, subject characteristics, and treatment parameters. To integrate these, the Immunogenicity Simulator was developed using published, predominantly late-stage trial data from 15 therapeutic proteins. This single-blinded evaluation with subject-level data from 10 further monoclonals assesses the Immunogenicity Simulator's credibility for application during the drug development process.

Prediction of antimicrobial target-site pharmacokinetics is of relevance to optimize treatment with antimicrobial agents. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model framework was developed for prediction of pulmonary pharmacokinetics, including key pulmonary infection sites (i.e. the alveolar macrophages and the epithelial lining fluid).\nThe modelling framework incorporated three lung PBPK models: a general passive permeability-limited model, a drug-specific permeability-limited model and a quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR)-informed perfusion-limited model. We applied the modelling framework to three fluoroquinolone antibiotics. Incorporation of experimental drug-specific permeability data was found essential for accurate prediction.\nIn the absence of drug-specific transport data, our QSPR-based model has generic applicability. Furthermore, we evaluated the impact of drug properties and pathophysiologically related changes on pulmonary pharmacokinetics. Pulmonary pharmacokinetics were highly affected by physiological changes, causing a shift in the main route of diffusion (i.e. paracellular or transcellular). Finally, we show that lysosomal trapping can cause an overestimation of cytosolic concentrations for basic compounds when measuring drug concentrations in cell homogenate.\nThe developed lung PBPK model framework constitutes a promising tool for characterization of pulmonary exposure of systemically administrated antimicrobials.

BackgroundQuantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling of the host-immune response against Mtb can inform rational design of host-directed therapies (HDTs). We aimed to develop a QSP framework to evaluate the effects of metformin-associated autophagy-induction in combination with antibiotics.MethodsA QSP framework for autophagy was developed by extending a model for host-immune response to include AMPK-mTOR-autophagy signalling. This model was combined with pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models for metformin and antibiotics against Mtb. We compared the model predictions to mice infection experiments, and derived predictions for pathogen and host-associated dynamics in humans treated with metformin in combination with antibiotics.ResultsThe model adequately captured the observed bacterial load dynamics in mice Mtb infection models treated with metformin. Simulations for adjunctive metformin therapy in newly diagnosed patients suggested a limited yet dose-dependent effect of metformin on reducing the intracellular bacterial load and selected pro-inflammatory cytokines. Our predictions suggest that metformin may provide beneficiary effects when overall bacterial load, or extracellular-to-intracellular bacterial ratio is low, either early after infection or late during antibiotic treatment.ConclusionsWe present the first QSP framework for HDTs against Mtb, linking cellular-level autophagy effects to disease progression. This framework may be extended to guide design of HDTs against Mtb.

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition driven by the dysregulation of the host immune response to an infection. The complex and interacting mechanisms underlying sepsis remain not fully understood. By integrating prior knowledge from literature using mathematical modelling techniques, we aimed to obtain a deeper mechanistic insight into sepsis pathogenesis and to evaluate promising novel therapeutic targets, with a focus on Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-mediated pathways. A Boolean network of regulatory relationships was developed for key immune components associated with sepsis pathogenesis after TLR4 activation. Perturbation analyses were conducted to identify therapeutic targets associated with organ dysfunction or antibacterial activity. The developed model consisted of 42 nodes and 183 interactions. Perturbation analyses suggest that over-expression of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) or inhibition of soluble receptor sTNF-R, tissue factor, and inflammatory cytokines (IFN-γ, IL-12) may lead to a reduced activation of organ dysfunction related endpoints. Over-expression of complement factor C3b and C5b led to an increase in the bacterial clearance related endpoint. We identified that combinatory blockade of IFN-γ and IL-10 may reduce the risk of organ dysfunction. Finally, we found that combining antibiotic treatment with IL-1β targeted therapy may have the potential to decrease thrombosis. In summary, we demonstrate how existing biological knowledge can be effectively integrated using Boolean network analysis for hypothesis generation of potential treatment strategies and characterization of biomarker responses associated with the early inflammatory response in sepsis.

A phase 1 clinical trial in healthy male volunteers was conducted with a somatostatin-dopamine chimera (BIM23B065), from which information could be obtained on the concentration-effect relationship of the inhibition of pulsatile endogenous growth hormone and prolactin secretion. Endogenous growth hormone profiles were analyzed using a two-step deconvolution-analysis-informed population pharmacodynamic modeling approach, which was developed for the analyses of pulsatile profiles. Prolactin concentrations were modelled using a population pool model with a circadian component on the prolactin release. During treatment with BIM23B065, growth hormone secretion was significantly reduced (maximal effect [EMAX] = − 64.8%) with significant reductions in the pulse frequency in two out of three multiple ascending dose cohorts. A circadian component in prolactin secretion was identified, modelled using a combination of two cosine functions with 24 h and 12 h periods. Dosing of BIM23B065 strongly inhibited (EMAX = − 91%) the prolactin release and demonstrated further reduction of prolactin secretion after multiple days of dosing. This study quantified the concentration-effect relationship of BIM23B065 on the release of two pituitary hormones, providing proof of pharmacology of the chimeric actions of BIM23B065. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10928-020-09683-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Application of contemporary molecular biology techniques to clinical samples in oncology resulted in the accumulation of unprecedented experimental data. These “omics” data are mined for discovery of therapeutic target combinations and diagnostic biomarkers. It is less appreciated that omics resources could also revolutionize development of the mechanistic models informing clinical pharmacology quantitative decisions about dose amount, timing, and sequence. We discuss the integration of omics data to inform mechanistic models supporting drug development in immuno‐oncology. To illustrate our arguments, we present a minimal clinical model of the Cancer Immunity Cycle (CIC), calibrated for non‐small cell lung carcinoma using tumor microenvironment composition inferred from transcriptomics of clinical samples. We review omics data resources, which can be integrated to parameterize mechanistic models of the CIC. We propose that virtual trial simulations with clinical Quantitative Systems Pharmacology platforms informed by omics data will be making increasing impact in the development of cancer immunotherapies.

The complement system (CS) is an integral part of innate immunity and can be activated via three different pathways. The alternative pathway (AP) has a central role in the function of the CS. The AP of complement system is implicated in several human disease pathologies. In the absence of triggers, the AP exists in a time-invariant resting state (physiological steady state). It is capable of rapid, potent and transient activation response upon challenge with a trigger. Previous models of AP have focused on the activation response. In order to understand the molecular machinery necessary for AP activation and regulation of a physiological steady state, we built parsimonious AP models using experimentally supported kinetic parameters. The models further allowed us to test quantitative roles played by negative and positive regulators of the pathway in order to test hypotheses regarding their mechanisms of action, thus providing more insight into the complex regulation of AP.

Treatment failure of antibiotic therapy due to insufficient efficacy or occurrence of toxicity is a major clinical challenge, and is expected to become even more urgent with the global rise of antibiotic resistance. Strategies to optimize treatment in individual patients are therefore of crucial importance. Currently, therapeutic drug monitoring plays an important role in optimizing antibiotic exposure to reduce treatment failure and toxicity. Biomarker‐based strategies may be a powerful tool to further quantify and monitor antibiotic treatment response, and reduce variation in treatment response between patients. Host response biomarkers, such as CRP, procalcitonin, IL‐6, and presepsin, could potentially carry significant information to be utilized for treatment individualization. To achieve this, the complex interactions among immune system, pathogen, drug, and biomarker need to be better understood and characterized. The purpose of this tutorial is to discuss the use and evidence of currently available biomarker‐based approaches to inform antibiotic treatment. To this end, we also included a discussion on how treatment response biomarker data from preclinical, healthy volunteer, and patient‐based studies can be further characterized using pharmacometric and system pharmacology based modeling approaches. As an illustrative example of how such modeling strategies can be used, we describe a case study in which we quantitatively characterize procalcitonin dynamics in relation to antibiotic treatments in patients with sepsis.

Collateral sensitivity (CS)-based antibiotic treatments, where increased resistance to one antibiotic leads to increased sensitivity to a second antibiotic, may have the potential to limit the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. However, it remains unclear how to best design CS-based treatment schedules. To address this problem, we use mathematical modelling to study the effects of pathogen- and drug-specific characteristics for different treatment designs on bacterial population dynamics and resistance evolution. We confirm that simultaneous and one-day cycling treatments could supress resistance in the presence of CS. We show that the efficacy of CS-based cycling therapies depends critically on the order of drug administration. Finally, we find that reciprocal CS is not essential to suppress resistance, a result that significantly broadens treatment options given the ubiquity of one-way CS in pathogens. Overall, our analyses identify key design principles of CS-based treatment strategies and provide guidance to develop treatment schedules to suppress resistance., Collateral sensitivity-based antibiotic treatments may have the potential to limit the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to study the effects of pathogen- and drug-specific characteristics for different treatment designs on bacterial population dynamics and resistance evolution.

Zebrafish larvae are increasingly used for pharmacological research, but internal drug exposure is often not measured. Understanding pharmacokinetics is necessary for reliable translation of pharmacological results to higher vertebrates, including humans. Quantification of drug clearance and distribution requires measurements of blood concentrations. Additionally, measuring drug metabolites is of importance to understand clearance in this model organism mechanistically. We therefore mechanistically study and quantify pharmacokinetics in zebrafish larvae, and compare this to higher vertebrates, using paracetamol (acetaminophen) as paradigm compound. A method was developed to sample blood from zebrafish larvae at five days post fertilization. Blood concentrations of paracetamol and its major metabolites, paracetamol-glucuronide and paracetamol-sulphate, were measured. Blood concentration data were combined with measured amounts in larval homogenates and excreted amounts and simultaneously analysed through non-linear mixed effects modelling, quantifying absolute clearance and distribution volume. Blood sampling from zebrafish larvae was most successful from the posterior cardinal vein with median volume (interquartile range) of 1.12 (0.676-1.66) nL per blood sample. Samples were pooled (n=15-35) to reach measurable levels. Paracetamol blood concentrations at steady state were only 10% of the external paracetamol concentration. Paracetamol-sulphate was the major metabolite and its formation was quantified using a time-dependent metabolic formation rate. Absolute clearance and distribution volume correlated well to reported values in higher vertebrates, including humans. Based on blood concentrations and advanced data analysis, the mechanistic and quantitative understanding of paracetamol pharmacokinetics in zebrafish larvae has been established. This will improve the translational value of this vertebrate model organism in drug discovery and development.

Optimal use and distribution of Covid-19 vaccines involves adjustments of dosing. Due to the rapidly-evolving pandemic, such adjustments often need to be introduced before full efficacy data are available. As demonstrated in other areas of drug development, quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) is well placed to guide such extrapolation in a rational and timely manner. Here we propose for the first time how QSP can be applied real time in the context of COVID-19 vaccine development., Comment: Perspective, 7 pages, 2 figures

The pharmaceutical industry is actively applying quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) to make internal decisions and guide drug development. To facilitate the eventual development of a common framework for assessing the credibility of QSP models for clinical drug development, scientists from US Food and Drug Administration and the pharmaceutical industry organized a full-day virtual Scientific Exchange on July 1, 2020. An assessment form was used to ensure consistency in the evaluation process. Among the cases presented, QSP was applied to various therapeutic areas. Applications mostly focused on phase 2 dose selection. Model transparency, including details on expert knowledge and data used for model development, was identified as a major factor for robust model assessment. The case studies demonstrated some commonalities in the workflow of QSP model development, calibration, and validation but differ in the size, scope, and complexity of QSP models, in the acceptance criteria for model calibration and validation, and in the algorithms/approaches used for creating virtual patient populations. Though efforts are being made to build the credibility of QSP models and the confidence is increasing in applying QSP for internal decisions at the clinical stages of drug development, there are still many challenges facing QSP application to late stage drug development. The QSP community needs a strategic plan that includes the ability and flexibility to Adapt, to establish Common expectations for model Credibility needed to inform drug Labeling and patient care, and to AIM to achieve the goal (ACCLAIM).

The pharmaceutical industry is actively applying quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) to make internal decisions and guide drug development. To facilitate the eventual development of a common framework for assessing the credibility of QSP models for clinical drug development, scientists from US Food and Drug Administration and the pharmaceutical industry organized a full-day virtual Scientific Exchange on July 1, 2020. An assessment form was used to ensure consistency in the evaluation process. Among the cases presented, QSP was applied to various therapeutic areas. Applications mostly focused on phase 2 dose selection. Model transparency, including details on expert knowledge and data used for model development, was identified as a major factor for robust model assessment. The case studies demonstrated some commonalities in the workflow of QSP model development, calibration, and validation but differ in the size, scope, and complexity of QSP models, in the acceptance criteria for model calibration and validation, and in the algorithms/approaches used for creating virtual patient populations. Though efforts are being made to build the credibility of QSP models and the confidence is increasing in applying QSP for internal decisions at the clinical stages of drug development, there are still many challenges facing QSP application to late stage drug development. The QSP community needs a strategic plan that includes the ability and flexibility to Adapt, to establish Common expectations for model Credibility needed to inform drug Labeling and patient care, and to AIM to achieve the goal (ACCLAIM).

There is an inherent tension in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) between the need to incorporate mathematical descriptions of complex physiology and drug targets with the necessity of developing robust, predictive and well-constrained models. In addition to this, there is no “gold standard” for model development and assessment in QSP. Moreover, there can be confusion over terminology such as model and parameter identifiability; complex and simple models; virtual populations; and other concepts, which leads to potential miscommunication and misapplication of methodologies within modeling communities, both the QSP community and related disciplines. This perspective article highlights the pros and cons of using simple (often identifiable) vs. complex (more physiologically detailed but often non-identifiable) models, as well as aspects of parameter identifiability, sensitivity and inference methodologies for model development and analysis. The paper distills the central themes of the issue of identifiability and optimal model size and discusses open challenges.

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted health systems and economies worldwide. Significant global efforts are therefore ongoing to improve vaccine efficacies, optimize vaccine deployment, and develop new antiviral therapies to combat the pandemic. Mechanistic viral dynamics and quantitative systems pharmacology models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccines, immunomodulatory agents, and antiviral therapeutics have played a key role in advancing our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and transmission, the interplay between innate and adaptive immunity to influence the outcomes of infection, effectiveness of treatments, mechanisms and performance of COVID-19 vaccines, and the impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Here, we review some of the critical insights provided by these models and discuss the challenges ahead., Comment: Mini-review, 2 figures

Aims: Growth hormone (GH) secretion is pulsatile and secretion varies highly between individuals. To understand and ultimately predict GH secretion, it is important to first delineate and quantify the interaction and variability in the biological processes underlying stimulated GH secretion. This study reports on the development of a population nonlinear mixed effects model for GH stimulation, incorporating individual GH kinetics and the stimulation of GH by GH-releasing hormone (GHRH). Methods: Literature data on the systemic circulation, the median eminence, and the anterior pituitary were included as system parameters in the model. Population parameters were estimated on data from 8 healthy normal weight and 16 obese women who received a 33 μg recombinant human GH dose. The next day, a bolus injection of 100 μg GHRH was given to stimulate GH secretion. Results: The GH kinetics were best described with the addition of 2 distribution compartments with a bodyweight dependent clearance (increasing linearly from 24.7 L/h for a 60-kg subject to 32.1 L/h for a 100-kg subject). The model described the data adequately with high parameter precision and significant interindividual variability on the GH clearance and distribution volume. Additionally, high variability in the amount of secreted GH, driven by GHRH receptor activation, was identified (coefficient of variation = 90%). Conclusion: The stimulation of GH by GHRH was quantified and significant interindividual variability was identified on multiple parameters. This model sets the stage for further development of by inclusion of additional physiological components to quantify GH secretion in humans.