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The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971-1999/2000) and future (2070/2071-2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.

Das aride Tarim-Becken im Nordwesten Chinas unterliegt Umweltveränderungen, die durch rapide Ausbreitung bewässerter Landwirtschaft sowie Klimawandel angetrieben sind. Während im Oberlauf in den letzten 50 Jahren ein Abflussanstieg beobachtet wurde, haben landwirtschaftliche Aktivitäten im Mittel- und Unterlauf zur Wasserknappheit und der drastischen Verkürzung des endorheischen Flusses geführt. Der Abfluss des Tarim, dessen Hauptzufluss der in Kirgistan entspringende Aksu-Fluss darstellt, wird zu einem großen Teil aus Schnee- und Gletscherschmelze in den oberen Gebirgseinzugsgebieten des Tien Shan gespeist. Da die Unterlieger von dem Wasser des Tarim zur Bewässerung in der Landwirtschaft abhängig sind, sind das Wissen über den Beitrag der Gletscherschmelze zum Abfluss sowie das Wissen über mögliche zukünftige Änderungen der Gletschermasse von großer Relevanz. Zahlreiche Studien beschränken sich oftmals nur auf die Betrachtung der Gletscherfläche, deren Änderung jedoch keine direkten Rückschlüsse auf etwaige Massenänderungen zulässt und zudem nur ein indirektes Signal für Klimaänderungen darstellt. Weiterführende Studien, welche zusätzlich Gletschermassenänderungen im Aksu-Einzugsgebiet untersuchen, haben häufig nur lokalen Charakter. Regionale Studien zu Massenänderungen, welche ganze Einzugsgebiete und Gebirgsketten umfassen, finden sich mehrheitlich für die letzte Dekade durch die Verfügbarkeit laseraltimetrischer Höhendaten und gravimetrischer Messungen, wobei letztere durch hohe Unsicherheiten gekennzeichnet sind. Um jedoch Aussagen hinsichtlich der zeitlichen Entwicklung der Gletscher treffen zu können, widmet sich die Arbeit insbesondere der Untersuchung von Gletschermassenveränderungen seit den 1970er Jahren unter Verwendung deklassifizierter amerikanischer Satellitenbilddaten, SRTM-Daten sowie SPOT-5-Stereodaten. Zur Ableitung geodätischer Gletschermassenbilanzen wurden Daten der Mapping Camera (MC) des Hexagon-Satelliten aus den Jahren 1973–1976 stereoskop

Information about the ice volume stored in glaciers is of high importance for sustainable water management in many arid regions of Central Asia. Several methods to estimate the ice volume exist. However, none of them take the specific characteristics of flat terminus debris-covered glaciers into account. We present a method for deriving spatially-distributed ice thickness for debris-covered dendritic glaciers, which are common not only in Central Tien Shan but also in several other mountain ranges in High Asia. The method relies on automatically generated branch lines, observed surface velocities and surface topographic parameters as basic input. Branch lines were generated using Thiessen polygons and Dijkstra's path algorithm. Ice thicknesses for four debris-covered glaciers – South Inylchek, Kaindy, Tomur and Koxkar glaciers – have been estimated along the branch line network solving the equation of laminar flow. For Koxkar and South Inylchek glaciers, respectively, maximum thicknesses of ~250 and 380 m were estimated. These results differ by ~50 m compared with GPR measurements with an uncertainty for the debris-covered parts of ~40%. Based on geodetic mass balances, we estimate that the investigated glaciers lost between 6 and 28% of their volume from 1975 to the early 2000s.

The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.

Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of Siachen Glacier (East Karakoram), in terms of its area and elevation change, velocity variations and mass budget, utilizing different satellite datasets including Landsat, Hexagon, Cartosat-I, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar and Japanese Advanced Land Observing Satellite Phased Array-type L-band SAR. The total areal extent of Siachen Glacier did not change significantly between 1980 and 2014; however the exposed-ice area decreased during that period. The terminus of the glacier has experienced substantial downwasting (on average 30 m) over the period of 1999–2007, followed by a retreat of the transition between exposed and debris-covered ice by a distance of 1.3 km during the short span 2007–14. The spatial patterns of the elevation difference and velocity are heterogeneous over the large areal extent of Siachen Glacier. The average velocity of the entire glacier, as computed between 11 December 2008 and 26 January 2009, was 12.3 ± 0.4 cm d−1, while those estimated separately for the accumulation and ablation regions were 9.7 ± 0.4 cm d−1 and 20.4 ± 0.4 cm d−1, respectively. The mass budget of Siachen Glacier is estimated to be –0.03 ± 0.21 m w.e. a−1 for the period of 1999–2007.

Comprehensive research on glacier changes in the Tian Shan is available for the current decade; however, there is limited information about glacier investigations of previous decades and especially before the mid 1970s. The earliest stereo images from the Corona missions were acquired in the 1960s but existing studies dealing with these images focus on single glaciers or small areas only. We developed a workflow to generate digital terrain models (DTMs) and orthophotos from 1964 Corona KH-4 for an entire mountain range (Ak-Shirak) located in the Central Tian Shan. From these DTMs and orthoimages, we calculated geodetic mass balances and length changes in comparison to 1973 and 1980 Hexagon KH-9 data. We found mass budgets between −0.4 ± 0.1 m·w.e.a−1 (1964–1980) and −0.9 ± 0.4 m·w.e.a−1 (1973–1980) for the whole region and individual glaciers. The length changes, on the other hand, vary heterogeneously between +624 ± 18 m (+39.0 ± 1.1 m·a−1) and −923 ± 18 m (−57.7 ± 1.1 m·a−1) for 1964–1980. An automation of the processing line can successively lead to region-wide Corona data processing allowing the analysis and interpretation of glacier changes on a larger scale and supporting a refinement of glacier modelling.

Previous geodetic estimates of mass changes in the Karakoram revealed balanced budgets or a possible slight mass gain since ∼ 2000. Indications of longer-term stability exist but only very few mass budget analyses are available before 2000. Here, based on 1973 Hexagon KH-9, ∼ 2009 ASTER and the SRTM DTM, we show that glaciers in the Hunza River basin (central Karakoram) were on average in balance or showed slight insignificant mass loss within the period ∼ 1973–2009. Heterogeneous behaviour and frequent surge activities were also characteristic of the period before 2000. Surge-type and non-surge-type glaciers showed on av- erage no significantly different mass change values. How- ever, some individual glacier mass change rates differed sig- nificantly for the periods before and after ∼ 2000.

Surge-type glaciers have been observed in several mountain ranges of the world. Though Karakoram and Pamir are the hot spots for the occurrence of surge-type glaciers in High Mountain Asia, few surge-type glaciers also exist in Tien Shan. These have not been studied or reported in detail in the recent literature. We have identified 39 surge-type glaciers and five tributary surges in Tien Shan either from available literature or by visual interpretation using available images from the period 1960 until 2014. Out of the 39 glaciers, 9 are confirmed as surge-type, 13 are very probably surge-type, and the remaining are possibly of surge-type. Most of the surge-type glaciers are located in Ak-Shiirak and Central Tien Shan. Compared with the normal glaciers of Tien Shan, the surge-type glaciers are larger, cover higher ranges of elevations, and have shallower slopes. There is no significant difference in aspect. The largest surge events were observed in Central Tien Shan: North Inylchek Glacier (years 1996/1997) and Samoilowich Glacier (years 1992 until 2006) advanced several kilometers. The surge cycle was around 50 years for both of these glaciers. The advance was less pronounced for all other surge-type glaciers during the period ca. 1960–2014. Some of the tributary glaciers behaved differently than the main glaciers in the sense that they continuously advanced during the entire period of our study, whereas the main glaciers have remained stable or retreated.

Glaciers in High Asia are subject of research at the Institute for Cartography at TU Dresden (IfK) for more than 10 years. One major and worldwide almost unique focus is the estimation of glacier mass budgets using multi-temporal digital terrain models based on declassified reconnaissance imagery from the 1960s and 1970s. It could be shown with this data that the glaciers in the Himalaya and the Tien Shan have the highest rates of mass loss since the 1970s. While the mass loss probably increased in the Himalaya since ~2000, no significant changes in the loss rate or even a slight decrease in mass loss could be found for the Tien Shan. Furthermore, we could show that glaciers in the Eastern Pamir and the Karakoram were in balance not only in the recent decade but also since the 1970s. The IfK-team, motivated and supported by Manfred Buchroithner contributed therefore significantly to the knowledge about glacier mass changes in High Asia.

Thinning rates for the debris-covered Gangotri Glacier and its tributary glaciers during the period 1968–2014, length variation and area vacated at the snout from 1965 to 2015, and seasonal variation of ice-surface velocity for the last two decades have been investigated in this study. It was found that the mass loss of Gangotri and its tributary glaciers was slightly less than those reported for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalayan regions. The average velocity during 2006–14 decreased by ∼6.7% as compared with that during 1993–2006. The debris-covered area of the main trunk of Gangotri Glacier increased significantly from 1965 until 2015 with the maximum rate of increase (0.8 ± 0.2 km2 a−1) during 2006–15. The retreat (∼9.0 ± 3.5 m a−1) was less in recent years (2006– 2015) but the down-wasting (0.34 ± 0.2 m a−1) in the same period (2006–2014) was higher than that (0.20 ± 0.1 m a−1) during 1968–2006. The study reinforced the established fact that the glacier length change is a delayed response to climate change and, in addition, is affected by debris cover, whereas glacier mass balance is a more direct and immediate response. Therefore, it is recommended to study the glacier mass balance and not only the glacier extent, to conclude about a glacier’s response to climate change.

Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period 1957–2004. This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.

Multitemporal space imagery from 1962 (Corona KH-4), 1992 (Landsat TM), 2001 and 2005 (Terra ASTER) was used to investigate the glacier changes in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal. The ice coverage in the investigation area decreased by about 5% between 1962 and 2005, with the highest retreat rates occurring between 1992 and 2001. The debris coverage increased concomitantly with the decrease in total glacier area. The clean-ice area decreased by >10%. Digital terrain model (DTM) generation from the early Corona KH-4 stereo data in this high-relief terrain is time-consuming, and the results still contain some elevation errors. However, these are minor in the snow-free areas with gentle slopes. Thus comparison of the surfaces of the debris-covered glacier tongues based on the Corona DTM and an ASTER DTM is feasible and shows the downwasting of the debris-covered glaciers. The highest downwasting rates, more than 20m (>0.5ma−1), can be found near the transition zone between the active and the stagnant glacier parts of the debris-covered glacier tongues. The downwasting is lower, but still evident, in the active ice areas and at the snout with thick debris cover. All investigated debriscovered glaciers in the study area show similar behaviour. The estimated volume loss for the investigated debris-covered glacier tongues is 0.19km3.