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BACKGROUND: School physical education is an important population-level health intervention for improving youth fitness. This study estimated the impact of New York Citys PE Works program - which included providing PE teachers, training for classroom teachers, and administrative/ teacher support for PE - on student cardiorespiratory fitness as measured by the FitnessGrams 15-meter PACER test for aerobic capacity. METHODS: This longitudinal study (2014/15-2018/19) includes 581 elementary schools (n = 315,999 4th /5th -grade students; 84% non-white; 74% who qualify for free or reduced-price meals, a proxy for socioeconomic status). We apply the parametric g-formula to address schools time-varying exposure to intervention components and time-varying confounding. RESULTS: After four years of staggered PE Works implementation, 49.7% of students/school (95% CI: 42.6%, 54.2%) met age/sex-specific Healthy Fitness Zone (HFZ) aerobic capacity standards set by the FitnessGram. Had PE Works not been implemented, we estimate 45.7% (95% CI: 36.9%, 52.1%) would have met aerobic capacity HFZ standards. Had PE Works been fully implemented in all schools from the programs inception, we estimate 57.4% (95% CI: 49.1%, 63.3%) would have met aerobic capacity HFZ standards. Adding a PE teacher, alone, had the largest impact (6.4% (95% CI: 1.0, 12.0) increase). CONCLUSION: PE Works positively impacted student cardiorespiratory fitness. Mandating and funding multicomponent PE programs is an important public health intervention to increase childrens cardiorespiratory fitness.

BACKGROUND: Wildfires in the Western United States are a growing and significant source of air pollution that is eroding decades of progress in air pollution reduction. The effects on preterm birth during critical periods of pregnancy are unknown. METHODS: We assessed associations between prenatal exposure to wildland fire smoke and risk of preterm birth (gestational age

In previous studies, investigators have reported increased risks of specific cancers associated with exposure to metalworking fluids (MWFs). In this report we broadly examine the incidence of 14 types of cancer, with a focus on digestive, respiratory, and hormonal cancers, in the United Auto Workers-General Motors (UAW-GM) cohort, a cohort of workers exposed to MWFs (1973-2015). The cohort included 39,132 workers followed for cancer incidence. Cox models yielded estimates of adjusted hazard ratios, with categorical variables for lagged cumulative exposure to 3 types of MWF (straight, soluble, and synthetic). We fitted penalized splines to examine the shape of the exposure-response relationships. There were 7,809 incident cancer cases of interest. Oil-based straight and soluble MWFs were each modestly associated with all cancers combined. Exposure-response patterns were consistent with prior reports from this cohort, and results for splined exposures generally reflected their categorically modeled counterparts. We found significantly increased incidence of stomach and kidney cancer with higher levels of straight MWF exposure and increased rectal and prostate cancer with increasing water-based synthetic MWF exposure. Only non-Hodgkin lymphoma and prostate cancer were associated with soluble MWF. All results for colon and lung cancers were null. Our results provide updated evidence for associations between MWF exposure and incidence of several types of cancer.

Although air pollution is an important risk factor for stroke, few studies have considered the impact of workplace exposure to particulate matter (PM). We examined implications of exposure to PM composed of metalworking fluids (MWFs) for stroke mortality in the United Autoworkers-General Motors cohort. Cox proportional hazards models with age as the timescale were used to estimate the association of cumulative straight, soluble, and synthetic MWF exposure with stroke mortality, controlling for sex, race, plant, calendar year, and hire year. Among 38,553 autoworkers followed during 1941-1995, we identified 114 ischemic stroke deaths and 113 hemorrhagic stroke deaths. Overall stroke mortality risk was increased among workers in the middle exposure category for straight MWF (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.87, 1.98) and workers in the highest exposure category for synthetic MWF (HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.13, 3.16) compared with workers who had no direct exposure. Ischemic stroke mortality risk was increased among workers in the highest exposure categories for straight MWF (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 0.83, 2.52) and synthetic MWF (HR = 2.39, 95% CI: 1.39, 4.50). We observed no clear relationship between MWF exposure and hemorrhagic stroke mortality. Our results support a potentially important role for occupational PM exposures in stroke mortality and indicate the need for further studies of PM exposure and stroke in varied occupational settings.

BACKGROUND: Suicide, drug overdose, and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) mortality have been rising in the United States. While suicide and overdose have received a great deal of attention, far less public health concern has focused on chronic ALD. To address this gap, we examine ALD mortality rates, by race, in a cohort of autoworkers to describe trends over the past 75 years, from the peak in automobile manufacturing employment through its decline. METHODS: Based on the United Autoworkers-General Motors (UAW-GM) cohort we estimated temporal trends in age-adjusted ALD mortality rates from 1941 through 2015 at three automobile manufacturing plants in Michigan. We compared these rates to county, state, and U.S. rates, directly standardized to the 2000 U.S. census, to assess the roles of race and employment on ALD mortality. RESULTS: The overall age-adjusted ALD mortality rate among 41,097 male autoworkers peaked at 46.1 per 100,000 in the 1970s, followed by a gradual decline and a recent rise. Rates were slightly higher for black than white men until early 2000s, when rates increased only for white men. ALD mortality rates in the study cohort tracked national, state, and county rates for white men until the most recent time period, but were lower throughout the study period for black men, especially in the 1970s and 1980s. CONCLUSIONS: Employment in automobile manufacturing may have offered some protection against death from ALD for black men, and loss of those manufacturing jobs may have impacted white men without a college degree more in recent decades.

BackgroundIn recent decades, suicide and fatal overdose rates have increased in the US, particularly for working-age adults with no college education. The coincident decline in manufacturing has limited stable employment options for this population. Erosion of the Michigan automobile industry provides a striking case study.MethodsWe used individual-level data from a retrospective cohort study of 26 804 autoworkers in the United Autoworkers-General Motors cohort, using employment records from 1970 to 1994 and mortality follow-up from 1970 to 2015. We estimated HRs for suicide or fatal overdose in relation to leaving work, measured as active or inactive employment status and age at worker exit.ResultsThere were 257 deaths due to either suicide (n=202) or overdose (n=55); all but 21 events occurred after leaving work. The hazard rate for suicide was 16.1 times higher for inactive versus active workers (95% CI 9.8 to 26.5). HRs for suicide were elevated for all younger age groups relative to those leaving work after age 55. Those 30-39 years old at exit had the highest HR for suicide, 1.9 (95% CI 1.2 to 3.0). When overdose was included, the rate increased by twofold for both 19- to 29-year-olds and 30- to 39-year-olds at exit. Risks remained elevated when follow-up was restricted to 5 years after exit.ConclusionsAutoworkers who left work had a higher risk of suicide or overdose than active employees. Those who left before retirement age had higher rates than those who left after, suggesting that leaving work early may increase the risk.

Objectives This report describes the extended follow-up (1941-2015) of a cohort of 38 549 automobile manufacturing workers with potential exposure to metalworking fluids (MWF). The outcomes of interest were mortality from cancers of the esophagus, stomach, intestine, rectum, bladder, liver, pancreas, larynx, lung, skin, prostate, brain, and female breast, as well as leukemia. This report includes 5472 deaths from cancer, more than ten times the numbers of deaths in our last summary report published 20 years ago. Methods Standardized mortality ratios were computed for the entire study period. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) were estimated in Cox proportional hazard models with categorical variables for cumulative exposure to each type of MWF. Results Exposure-response patterns are consistent with prior mortality reports from this cohort. We found increased risk of skin and female breast cancer with straight fluids. For the first time, we found elevated risk of stomach cancer mortality. Overall, many of the exposure-response results did not suggest an association with MWF. Conclusions Mortality is a poor proxy for cancer diagnosis for treatable cancers and not the optimal outcome measure in etiological studies. Although the HR presented here handle bias from the healthy worker hire effect and left truncation, they do not handle bias from healthy worker survivor effect, which likely results in underestimates of the health impacts of MWF. Although this updated summary provides some information on the risk of cancer from MWF, targeted future analyses will help clarify associations.

ObjectiveOccupational dust exposure has been associated with accelerated lung function decline, which in turn is associated with overall morbidity and mortality. In the current study, we assess potential benefits on lung function of hypothetical interventions that would reduce occupational exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) while adjusting for the healthy worker survivor effect.MethodsAnalyses were performed in a cohort of 6485 hourly male workers in an aluminium manufacturing company in the USA, followed between 1996 and 2013. We used the parametric g-formula to assess lung function decline over time under hypothetical interventions while also addressing time-varying confounding by underlying health status, using a composite risk score based on health insurance claims.ResultsA counterfactual scenario envisioning a limit on exposure equivalent to the 10th percentile of the observed exposure distribution of 0.05 mg/m3 was associated with an improvement in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) equivalent to 37.6 mL (95% CI 13.6 to 61.6) after 10 years of follow-up when compared with the observed. Assuming a linear decrease and (from NHANES reference values), a 20 mL decrease per year for a 1.8 m-tall man as they age, this 37.6 mL FEV1 loss over 10 years associated with observed exposure would translate to approximately a 19% increase to the already expected loss per year from age alone.ConclusionsOur results indicate that occupational PM2.5 exposure in the aluminium industry accelerates lung function decline over age. Reduction in exposure may mitigate accelerated loss of lung function over time in the industry.

OBJECTIVES: Synthetic metalworking fluids (MWFs), widely used to cool and lubricate industrial machining and grinding operations, have been linked with increased risk of several cancers. Estimates of their relation with lung cancer, however, are inconsistent. Controlling for the healthy worker survivor effect, we examined the relations between lung cancer mortality and exposure to synthetic MWF, as well as to biocides added to water-based fluids to control microbial growth, in a cohort of autoworkers. Biocides served as a marker for endotoxin, which has reported antitumour effects, and were hypothesised to be the reason prior studies found reduced lung cancer risk associated with exposure to synthetic fluids. METHODS: Using the parametric g-formula, we estimated risk ratios (RRs) comparing cumulative lung cancer mortality under no intervention with what would have occurred under hypothetical interventions reducing exposure to zero (ie, a ban) separately for two exposures: synthetic fluids and biocides. We also specified an intervention on synthetic MWF and biocides simultaneously to estimate joint effects. RESULTS: Under a synthetic MWF ban, we observed decreased lung cancer mortality risk at age 86, RR=0.96 (0.91-1.01), but when we also intervened to ban biocides, the RR increased to 1.03 (0.95-1.11). A biocide-only ban increased lung cancer mortality (RR=1.07 (1.00-1.16)), with slightly larger RR in younger ages. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest a modest positive association for synthetic MWF with lung cancer mortality, contrary to the negative associations reported in earlier studies. Biocide exposure, however, was inversely associated with risk of lung cancer mortality.

Exposure to silica has been linked to excess risk of lung cancer and nonmalignant respiratory disease mortality. In this study we estimated risk for both these outcomes in relation to occupational silica exposure as well as the reduction in risk that would result from hypothetical interventions on exposure in a cohort of exposed workers. Analyses were carried out using data from an all-male study population consisting of 2,342 California diatomaceous earth workers regularly exposed to crystalline silica and followed between 1942 and 2011. We estimated subdistribution risk for each event under the natural course and interventions of interest using the parametric g-formula to adjust for healthy-worker survivor bias. The risk ratio for lung cancer mortality, comparing an intervention in which a theoretical maximum exposure limit was set at 0.05 mg/m3 (the current US regulatory limit) with the observed exposure concentrations, was 0.86 (95% confidence interval: 0.63, 1.22). The corresponding risk ratio for nonmalignant respiratory disease mortality was 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.52, 0.93). Our findings suggest that risks from both outcomes would have been considerably lower if historical silica exposures in this cohort had not exceeded current regulatory limits.

Prolonged exposures can have complex relationships with health outcomes, as timing, duration, and intensity of exposure are all potentially relevant. Summary measures such as cumulative exposure or average intensity of exposure may not fully capture these relationships. We applied penalized and unpenalized distributed-lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) with flexible exposure-response and lag-response functions in order to examine the association between crystalline silica exposure and mortality from lung cancer and nonmalignant respiratory disease in a cohort study of 2,342 California diatomaceous earth workers followed during 1942-2011. We also assessed associations using simple measures of cumulative exposure assuming linear exposure-response and constant lag-response. Measures of association from DLNMs were generally higher than those from simpler models. Rate ratios from penalized DLNMs corresponding to average daily exposures of 0.4 mg/m3 during lag years 31-50 prior to the age of observed cases were 1.47 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92, 2.35) for lung cancer mortality and 1.80 (95% CI: 1.14, 2.85) for nonmalignant respiratory disease mortality. Rate ratios from the simpler models for the same exposure scenario were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.48) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.46), respectively. Longitudinal cohort studies of prolonged exposures and chronic health outcomes should explore methods allowing for flexibility and nonlinearities in the exposure-lag-response.

Purpose of reviewWe offer an in-depth discussion of the time-varying confounding and selection bias mechanisms that give rise to the healthy worker survivor effect (HWSE).Recent findingsIn this update of an earlier review, we distinguish between the mechanisms collectively known as the HWSE and the statistical bias that can result. This discussion highlights the importance of identifying both the target parameter and the target population for any research question in occupational epidemiology. Target parameters can correspond to hypothetical workplace interventions; we explore whether these target parameters' true values reflect the etiologic effect of an exposure on an outcome or the potential impact of enforcing an exposure limit in a more realistic setting. If a cohort includes workers hired before the start of follow-up, HWSE mechanisms can limit the transportability of the estimates to other target populations. We summarize recent publications that applied g-methods to control for the HWSE, focusing on their target parameters, target populations, and hypothetical interventions.

OBJECTIVE: The healthy worker survivor effect (HWSE) can affect the validity of occupational studies when data are analysed incorrectly. HWSE depends on three underlying conditions: (1) leaving work predicts future exposure, (2) leaving work is associated with disease outcome and (3) prior exposure increases probability of leaving work. If all these conditions are satisfied, then employment status is a time-varying confounder affected by prior exposure, and standard regression will produce bias. We assessed these conditions for cancer outcomes in a cohort of autoworkers exposed to metalworking fluids (MWF). METHODS: The cohort includes 31 485 workers followed for cancer incidence from 1985 to 1994. As occupational exposures to straight, soluble and synthetic MWFs are necessarily zero after leaving work, condition (1) is satisfied. Cox models for cancer incidence and for employment termination were used to assess conditions (2) and (3), respectively. Employment termination by select ages was examined to better gauge the presence of condition (2). RESULTS: The HR for leaving work as a predictor of all cancers combined and prostate cancer was null, but elevated for lung and colorectal cancers among men. Condition (2) was more clearly satisfied for all cancer outcomes when leaving work occurred by age 50. Higher exposures to all three MWF types were associated with increased rates of leaving work (condition (3)), with the exception of straight MWF among women. CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence for the structural conditions underlying HWSE in a cohort of autoworkers. G-methods should be applied to reduce HWSE bias in studies of all cancers presently examined.

Objectives In recent decades, risk of job loss in America after age 50 has been high, potentially causing significant stress during the period preceding retirement. Yet no study has quantified the burden of clinically relevant depressive symptoms attributable to job loss in this age group over this period or identified the most vulnerable populations. Methods Participants aged 50+ in the Health and Retirement Study (recruited 1992–2016) who were employed and scored <5 on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression 8-item scale (CESD-8) at baseline (N  = 18,571) were followed for depressive symptoms until they first had CESD-8 ≥5 or died, or through the 2018 survey. Parametric g-formula analyses examined the difference in cumulative risk of having CESD-8 ≥5 if there had been no involuntary job loss compared to the observed scenario, adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, age, and dynamic measures of recent marriage end (divorce or widowhood), having a working spouse, assets/debt, and health changes. Results We estimated that risk of CESD-8 ≥5 would have been 1.1% (95% confidence interval [0.55, 1.37]) lower if no involuntary job loss had occurred; job loss accounted for 11% of the total burden among those who lost a job. Stronger associations were observed for women (1.2% [0.7, 1.8] vs men 0.5% [0.2, 1.1]), White respondents (1.0% [0.6, 1.5] vs Black respondents 0.5% [−0.1, 1.4]), and those in the lowest quartile of baseline assets (1.1% [0.4, 1.9] vs wealthiest quartile 0.5% [−0.4, 0.9]). Discussion Involuntary job loss is associated with high depressive symptom burden in older persons, suggesting that screening and intervention soon after job loss may help mitigate depression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundIf less healthy workers terminate employment earlier, thus accumulating less exposure, yet remain at greater risk of the health outcome, estimated health effects of cumulative exposure will be biased downward. If exposure also affects termination of employment, then the bias cannot be addressed using conventional methods. We examined these conditions as a prelude to a reanalysis of lung cancer mortality in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study.MethodsWe applied an accelerated failure time model to assess the effect of exposures to respirable elemental carbon (a surrogate for diesel) on time to termination of employment among nonmetal miners who ever worked underground (n = 8,307). We then applied the parametric g-formula to assess how possible interventions setting respirable elemental carbon exposure limits would have changed lifetime risk of lung cancer, adjusting for time-varying employment status.ResultsMedian time to termination was 36% shorter (95% confidence interval = 33%, 39%), per interquartile range width increase in respirable elemental carbon exposure. Lung cancer risk decreased with more stringent interventions, with a risk ratio of 0.8 (95% confidence interval = 0.5, 1.1) comparing a limit of ≤25 µg/m respirable elemental carbon to no intervention. The fraction of cases attributable to diesel exposure was 27% in this population.ConclusionsThe g-formula controlled for time-varying confounding by employment status, the signature of healthy worker survivor bias, which was also affected by diesel exposure. It also offers an alternative approach to risk assessment for estimating excess cumulative risk, and the impact of interventions based entirely on an observed population.

Occupational exposure to aerosolized particles of oil-based metalworking fluid was recently linked to deaths from ischemic heart disease. The current recommended exposure limits might be insufficient. Studying cardiovascular mortality is challenging because symptoms can induce sicker workers to reduce their exposure, causing healthy-worker survivor bias. G-estimation of accelerated failure time models reduces this bias and permits comparison of multiple exposure interventions. Michigan autoworkers from the United AutoWorkers-General Motors cohort (n = 38,666) were followed from 1941 through 1994. Separate binary variables indicated whether annual exposure exceeded a series of potential limits. Separate g-estimation analyses for each limit yielded the total number of life-years that could have been saved among persons who died from specific cardiovascular causes by enforcing that exposure limit. Banning oil-based fluids would have saved an estimated 4,003 (95% confidence interval: 2,200, 5,807) life-years among those who died of ischemic heart disease. Estimates for cardiovascular disease overall, acute myocardial infarction, and cerebrovascular disease were 3,500 (95% confidence interval: 1,350, 5,651), 2,932 (95% confidence interval: 1,587, 4,277), and 917 (95% confidence interval: -80, 1,913) life-years, respectively. A limit of 0.01 mg/m(3) would have had a similar impact on cerebrovascular disease but one only half as great on ischemic heart disease. Analyses suggest that limiting exposure to metalworking fluids could have saved many life-years lost to cardiovascular diseases in this cohort.

ObjectivesTo examine gender and racial disparities in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality related to metalworking fluid exposures and in the healthy worker survivor effect.MethodsA cohort of white and black men and women autoworkers in the USA was followed from 1941 to 1995 with quantitative exposure to respirable particulate matter from water-based metalworking fluids. Separate analyses used proportional hazards models and g-estimation.ResultsThe HR for IHD among black men was 3.29 (95% CI 1.49 to 7.31) in the highest category of cumulative synthetic fluid exposure. The HR for IHD among white women exposed to soluble fluid reached 2.44 (95% CI 0.96 to 6.22). However, no increased risk was observed among white men until we corrected for the healthy worker survivor effect. Results from g-estimation indicate that if white male cases exposed to soluble or synthetic fluid had been unexposed to that fluid type, then 1.59 and 1.20 years of life would have been saved on average, respectively.ConclusionsWe leveraged the strengths of two different analytic approaches to examine the IHD risks of metalworking fluids. All workers may have the same aetiological risk; however, black and female workers may experience more IHD from water-based metalworking fluid exposure because of a steeper exposure-response or weaker healthy worker survivor effect.

Marginal structural models (MSMs) and inverse probability weighting can be used to estimate risk in a cohort of active workers if there is a time-varying confounder (e.g., health status) affected by prior exposure-a feature of the healthy worker survivor effect. We applied Cox MSMs in a study of incident ischemic heart disease and exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) in a cohort of 12,949 actively employed aluminum workers in the United States. The cohort was stratified by work process into workers in smelting facilities, herein referred to as "smelters" and workers in fabrication facilities, herein referred to as "fabricators." The outcome was assessed by using medical claims data from 1998 to 2012. A composite risk score based on insurance claims was treated as a time-varying measure of health status. Binary PM2.5 exposure was defined by the 10th-percentile cutoff for each work process. Health status was associated with past exposure and predicted the outcome and subsequent exposure in smelters but not in fabricators. In smelters, the Cox MSM hazard ratio comparing those always exposed above the cutoff with those always exposed below the cutoff was 1.98 (95% confidence interval: 1.18, 3.32). In fabricators, the hazard ratio from a traditional Cox model was 1.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.98, 1.83). Results suggest that occupational PM2.5 exposure increases the risk of incident ischemic heart disease in workers in both aluminum smelting and fabrication facilities.

BackgroundOccupational cohort studies are often challenged by the Healthy Worker Survivor Effect, which may bias standard methods of analysis. G-estimation of structural failure time models is an approach for reducing this type of bias. Accelerated failure time models have recently been applied in an occupational cohort but cumulative failure time models have not.MethodsWe used g-estimation of a cumulative failure time model to assess the effect of working as a long-haul driver on ischaemic heart disease mortality in a cohort of 30 448 men employed in the unionised US trucking industry in 1985. Exposure was defined by job title and based on work records. We also applied g-estimation of an accelerated failure time model as a sensitivity analysis and approximated HRs from both models to compare them.ResultsThe risk ratio (RR) obtained from the cumulative failure time model, comparing the observed risk under no intervention to the risk had nobody ever been exposed as a long-haul driver, was 1.09 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.16). The RR comparing the risk had everyone been exposed as long-haul driver for 8 years to the risk had nobody ever been exposed was 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.46). After HR approximations, accelerated failure time model results were similar.ConclusionsThe cumulative failure time model can effectively control time-varying confounding by Healthy Worker Survivor Effect, and provides an easily interpretable effect estimate. RRs estimated from the cumulative failure time model indicate an elevated ischaemic heart disease mortality risk for long-haul drivers in the US trucking industry.