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Greater efforts are needed to bridge the emission gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and the objective to limit climate change below 2°C. This paper focuses on four European-Union countries: Germany, France, Poland and UK that represent on aggregate 55% of current EU emissions. It analyses national mitigation strategies produced by national research teams in the framework of the COP21_RIPPLES project and compatible with a long-term objective leading to a well below 2°C target either as part of an ambition in 2030 limited to that of the NDCs, or as part of more ambitious early action. We use the decarbonization wedges methodology, an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies. This makes it possible to assess the priorities for action to strengthen the NDCs. The article also highlights the impact sectoral growth dynamics have on the emission trajectories and the resulting necessary mitigation efforts.

The limitation of global warming below 2°C requires rapid and significant deployment of renewable energies in the power sector. Policies to support innovation and diffusion of renewables have been implemented for more than 20 years. There is currently a debate surrounding their economic and environmental efficiency and the right balance between support for innovation and support for diffusion. This article sheds light on the stakes of this debate by presenting the results of the econometric literature which evaluates the effect of these policies and compares these results with the main conclusions of non-econometric studies. The results show that innovation policies and diffusion policies have a positive impact on renewable energies and so confirm non-econometric studies. However, they reveal differentiated effects; La limitation du réchauffement climatique nécessite un déploiement rapide et important des énergies renouvelables (ENR). Des politiques de soutien visant l'innovation et la diffusion de ces technologies ont été mises en oeuvre depuis plus de 20 ans. Il existe aujourd'hui un débat sur leur efficacité environnementale et économique et sur le bon équilibre entre soutien à l'innovation et à la diffusion. Cet article éclaire les enjeux de ce débat en présentant les résultats de la littérature économétrique qui évalue l'effet de ces politiques et en comparant ces résultats avec les principaux enseignements des études non économétriques. Les résultats montrent que les politiques d'innovation et les politiques de diffusion ont un impact positif sur les ENR et confirment en cela les études non économétriques. Ils font toutefois apparaitre des effets différenciés selon la nature des politiques (politiques prix versus politiques quantités) et la maturité des technologies.

International audience; Renewable energy (RE) technologies for electricity generation are a central pillar of energy sector decarbonisation strategies worldwide. Public policies to promote their diffusion have been in place in developed economies since 1980, and, since the 2000s, a growing number of emerging countries began implemented such policies. The Latin American countries have been proactive in RE promotion, but few attempts have been made to evaluate the results. This article proposes an econometric analysis of the effectiveness of RE policies, based on panel data for 20 Latin American and 30 European countries, over 20 years. The results converge for the influence of promotion policies in general: they have a positive and statistically significant effect on RE investment, being the principal determinant in both regions. Nevertheless, on their own, tax incentives are insufficient to assure the deployment of RE technologies. This article also highlights specificities in policy approaches and motivations across both regions and explains why auction became the main instrument in Latin American countries.

International audience; The new bottom-up approach of the Paris agreement calls for a better understanding of the domestic dimension of development pathways and of the implications for global emissions trajectory. To this end, it is of strategic importance to provide a common framework that makes it possible to identify the key decarbonization wedges at the national level and to highlight the potential benefits of international cooperation. The article proposes an advanced index decomposition analysis methodology based on sectoral energy service indicators and on a specific decomposition in the power sector for quantifying the contribution of different mitigation strategies. It is applied to national deep decarbonization pathways elaborated in the Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project (DDPP) by the sixteen largest GHG emitting countries. In a global perspective, the results reveal the key role of energy efficiency and decarbonization of energy carriers in the industry sector, deployment of renewables in the power sector and, to a lesser extent, coal/gas substitution, and efficiency and energy decarbonization in the transport sector. The analysis also calls for a deeper understanding of the role a reduction in energy-service demand can play in mitigation scenarios and of the respective contribution for industry of energy efficiency and structural change.

Rapport de recherche pour EDF R&D

http://authors.elsevier.com/a/1TVUC3QCo9JMWa free till september 25th; International audience; Urban and energy transitions are increasingly seen as being deeply intertwined. The way this relation impacts our approach to energy transition is a current issue for research. Implementing renewable energy sources in built-up areas challenges incumbent supply chains and large technical systems, especially for electricity, gas and heat. Approaches to transition such as the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) highlight the transformation of socio-technical regimes but have been criticised for overstating stability of regime and for overlooking spatial (and consequently urban) processes. Other concepts are required in order to understand local and non-local relationships between niches and regimes. This paper suggests a constructivist and pragmatic concept for urban energy transition, the Socio-Energetic Node (SEN), thanks to which actors and artefacts can be traced within energy networks. The SEN is a group of elements, which collects, converts and/or supplies energy, built by a decision-maker interacting with stakeholders and regime rules. Having identified SENs in four French eco-districts, we observed how they took shape around continuous energy flows and across decision-making boundaries, highlighting how spatial-scale and place-specificity impact on energy transition.

International audience

National audience; The COP21 reconfirmed the indispensable role of the reduction of CO2 emissions to limit global warming. To this end, new technologies can be a determinant lever. A study undertaken by ANCRE (a French government backed energy think tank and modulator) stresses the importance of massive investment in these technologies to succeed in a deep decarbonation of the world’s energy system.; La COP21 a réaffirmé le rôle indispensable de la réduction des émissions de CO2 dans la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique. À cette fin, les nouvelles technologies peuvent constituer un levier déterminant. Une étude réalisée par l’ANCRE souligne la nécessité d’investir massivement dans ces technologies pour aboutir à une décarbonation profonde du système énergétique mondial.

International audience; Pressed by the urgent need to mitigate climate change, renewable energy sources are already replacing fossil fuels. Temporary drops in the spot price of electricity now occur in Europe when peak solar and wind output coincides with slack demand. Management of intermittent energy sources and energy storage are consequently crucial issues for the medium term. Two possible routes are of particular importance: on the one hand, funding of generating capacity – via a market instrument yet to be devised – to cover only periods of peak demand and intermittent supply; on the other temporary demand-side management of end-users. These two routes have been studied in detail by energy actors and encouraged by public-sector sponsorship of research. But they have so far made no allowance for local authorities, resident groups and intermediate bodies, despite the fact that they are playing an increasingly important part in deploying renewables and achieving greater energy efficiency. Being more complex than commercial transactions, the relations between the various actors have given rise to sharply divergent analysis by different disciplines. The socio-technical approach – a current of thought in the social sciences – has largely demonstrated the links between technology and society: the effect of institutional regulation on energy governance (Poupeau, 2013) and the deployment of technical systems (Berkhout et al, 2004; Geels and Schot, 2007); the organization of large technical networks and its subsequent dependence paths (Coutard, 2002); the enmeshing of town planning and networks (Dupuy et al, 2008; Rutherford and Coutard, 2014). Our purpose is not to discuss their findings, simply to illustrate the various forms of interdependency between the political, urban, organizational and technological dimensions of energy in a manner accessible to decision-makers and the general public. To achieve this, we propose four scenarios for coordinating energy in an urban environment between now and 2040. The scenarios are based on research carried out as part of the Ecoquartier Nexus Energie project, funded by Ademe and involving a dozen Grenoble researchers specializing in planning, economics, sociology, management and technology. We present here the broad lines of the Ecoquartier Nexus Energie research action and the method used to script and summarize the four scenarios, centring on four pivotal actors: - Large companies, supplying urban energy systems; - Local authorities, steering territorial planning;- The State, acting as the central power framing rules and regulations; and- Cooperative actors, collectives seeking to regain control over housing and energy.

This paper summarises the major recommendations and conclusions of the third Forum of the European Network on Energy Research (ENER) which took place in June 2002 in Budapest. The major perceptions of this meeting as well as the most important conclusions and recommendations for energy policy makers are compiled in this summary. The statements compiled in the following represent a consensus within the ENER Network while on some questions differences in perception and analysis persisted.

Now that the risks of climate change have been confirmed and the European States have declared their willingness to pursue ambitious objectives for producing electricity from renewable energy sources, it becomes crucial to take a look at the relative efficiency of the different incentive schemes used. Such schemes may focus on quantities—defining national targets and setting up bidding systems, or quota systems providing for green certificate trading—, or they may focus on prices—feed-in tariffs. Clearly, these instruments are much the same as those used in environmental policies, with similar discussion involved in their choice. Whatever the system chosen, the role of the public authorities is quite specific: to stimulate technical progress and speed up the technological learning processes so that ultimately renewable energy technologies will be able to compete with conventional technologies, once the environmental costs have been internalised. A comparison of instruments must thus take into account the characteristics of the innovation process and adoption conditions—uncertainties regarding cost curves, learning effects—which means also looking at dynamic efficiency criteria. The authors examine the efficiency of the different incentive schemes for the development of renewable energy sources, both from a theoretical point of view by comparing price-based approaches with quantity-based approaches, and from a practical point of view by looking at concrete examples of how these different instruments have been implemented. The paper concludes that a system of feed-in tariffs is more efficient than a bidding system, but highlights the theoretical interest of green certificate trading which must be confirmed through practice, given the influence of market structures and rules on the performance of this type of approach.

International audience; This paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances.

This paper compares the energy systems implemented in eco-districts of several European cities over the last twenty years. It aims to identify the main differences and build a typology based on technical criteria (energy technologies and sources) as well as governance ones (decision process and role of future dwellers). The major differences that are highlighted relate to energy performance targets, the share of renewable energy sources in the fuel mix, and the type of energy-efficient technologies used. Among the latter, some have already been used for a relatively long-time, whereas others are emerging or at an experimental stage. In our sample, the French eco-districts, although younger than most of their European counterparts, do not come out as ambitious and innovative as some European ones that were built in the 1990s., Ce papier propose une comparaison des systèmes énergétiques mis en œuvre dans les écoquartiers réalisés dans plusieurs villes européennes au cours des 20 dernières années. L'objectif est d'identifier les principales différences et tenter d'établir une typologie s'appuyant sur des critères techniques (nature des technologies et sources d'énergie) mais aussi de gouvernance (mode de décision et rôle des futurs habitants). On observe entre les écoquartiers des différences significatives entre les objectifs de performance énergétique ou la proportion d'énergies renouvelables utilisée. De même, les technologies mises en œuvre sont certes efficaces mais dans certains écoquartiers elles sont déjà éprouvées alors que dans d'autres, elles sont encore expérimentales ou émergentes. Dans notre échantillon, on ne retrouve pas dans les premières réalisations françaises l'ambition et le caractère innovant qui caractérisaient certains des écoquartiers européens des années 1990.

PV technology is of major interest for the energy sector because it offers the possibility of generating renewable electricity, using a resource that is widely available throughout the world, and without producing noticeable environmental externalities. The performance of the technology has progressed significantly over the last 20 years, thanks to learning effects, which have enabled PV diffusion to be extended beyond the initial niche markets. If this learning process can be maintained, PV may become an efficient technology for electricity generation and contribute to a sustainable world energy supply. Different technologies are competing in the production of PV cells. This paper analyses the mechanisms whereby one technology (crystalline silicon) has become established in a dominant position by using a knowledge base shared with the electronic components industry. The increasing diffusion of PV applications in new market segments as a result of public policies is then discussed, along with the resulting reinforcing mechanisms in favor of silicon technology. Given the limited progress margins remaining on this technological trajectory, a discussion is finally presented of new, more promising PV technologies and their possibilities for overcoming this lock-in situation and extending the current PV learning process.

In the household electrical appliances sector, the purchasing behaviour of the consumers is sensitive to different attributes (price, brand, aesthetics, appliance features, etc.), but rarely to the energy-efficiency criterion. This represents a strong constraint to the diffusion of efficient appliances. In this paper, the authors present the main types of instruments used to compensate for this apparent lack of concern, through actions stimulating demand or encouraging the supply of more efficient products. International experience in lighting or electrical appliances sectors is investigated as well as French programmes. The conclusion insists on the complementary nature between these different instruments and suggests to combine them according to the existing industrial, technological or competitive contexts.

International audience; The HyFrance Group was originally formed in France to support the European project HyWays, by providing (former projects HyFrance1 and HyFrance2) the French data and possible hydrogen pathways according to the national specificities. HyFrance3 is a new project that focuses on the economic competitiveness of differents teps of the hydrogen chain, from the production to the end use, at the time horizon of 2030 in France. HyFrance3 is a 10 partners' project coordinated by the CEA. The project addresses the present and future French hydrogen industrial markets for chemical and refinery uses, the analysis of the interplay between wind energy production and storage of hydrogen for different automotive requirements (refuelling stations, biofuel plants, Hydrogen/Natural Gas mix), the massive hydrogen storage to balance various supply and demand characteristics, and the supply network (pipeline option competitiveness vs. trucked in supply) to distribute hydrogen in a French region for automotive applications. Technical and economical issues are addressed. The future industrial hydrogen demand in France will be over 106 t/year ca. 2030, and could be doubled if there is a use for reduction in the steel industry. If hydrogen is produced by electrolysis from wind energy systems, the costs vary from ca. 4 to 20 €/kg, depending strongly on the type of demand and the connexion rate to the grid. At a French regional scale, hydrogen use for transports needs mass storage (at least 103 t) to balance a constant supply and a seasonal demand, the corresponding transport and distribution up to 2050 require pipelines and the costs could be limited to the reasonable values ca.0.4-0.6 €/kg.

Dans un contexte de raréfaction des ressources en énergie fossile et de changements climatiques, la Nouvelle-Calédonie, qui n’est pas actuellement soumise au protocole de Kyoto, doit répondre aux préoccupations environnementales et trouver les voies et moyens d’une moins grande dépendance énergétique. Au moment où le Territoire définit son Schéma d’aménagement et de développement 2025 et, dans le prolongement, son Schéma de l’énergie et du climat, le gouvernement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie et l’ADEME, via le Comité territorial pour la maîtrise de l’énergie (CTME), ont demandé à l’Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) de produire un état des lieux complet et une analyse pluridisciplinaire des enjeux constitutifs de la question de l’énergie dans le développement de la Nouvelle-Calédonie. La maîtrise de l’énergie, les nouvelles technologies en matière de production et de stockage d’énergie, les moyens de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, la géopolitique de l’énergie et du climat et la coopération régionale, la gouvernance de l’énergie et du climat en Nouvelle-Calédonie, ont ainsi été examinés au cours de l’année 2009 par un collège d’experts qui en restitue ici le bilan détaillé. Cette expertise collégiale, qui a mobilisé l’ensemble des données scientifiques disponibles pour les décliner sur le cas particulier de la Nouvelle-Calédonie, livre une série de recommandations qui pourront utilement venir à l’appui des politiques que le Territoire est sur le point de se donner. Against the backdrop of increasingly scarce fossil fuel resources and climate change, New Caledonia, which is not currently subject to the Kyoto protocol, must respond to environmental concerns, and find ways and means of becoming less energy-dependent. With the Territory defining its Land Use and Development plan for 2025 and, further down the line, its energy and climate plan, the Government of New Caledonia and the Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME), via the Territorial Energy Management Committee (CTME), have asked the Development Research Institute (IRD) to produce a complete report of the situation and a multi-disciplinary analysis of the issues involved in the question of energy in the development New Caledonia. During the course of 2009, a board of experts also examined energy management, new energy production and storage technologies, ways of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the geopolitical position concerning energy and climate, and regional cooperation along with energy and climate management in New Caledonia. Their detailed assessment is provided here. In accordance with the expert report model developed, the body of experts called up all available scientific data and knowledge so as to apply this understanding to the specific situation in New Caledonia. The body was thus able to deliver a series of recommendations, which may usefully support the policies that the Territory is on the point of adopting.

International audience; Wind-generated electricity is often considered a particularly promising option for producing hydrogen from renewable energy sources. However, the economic performances of such systems generally remain unclear because of unspecified or favorable assumptions and operating conditions. The aim of this paper is to clarify these conditions by examining how the hydrogen produced is used. The analysis that has been conducted in the framework of the HyFrance 3 project concerns hydrogen for transport applications. Different technical systems are considered such as motorway hydrogen filling stations, Hythane®-fueled buses or second-generation biofuels production, which present contrasted hydrogen use characteristics. This analysis reveals considerable variations in hydrogen production costs depending on the demand profiles concerned, with the most favorable configurations being those in which storage systems are kept to a minimum.

International audience; Le transport routier de passagers est largement dominé par des véhicules individuels dont on peut faire le constat du surdimensionnement pour la majorité des usages au quotidien. Or, l'ensemble des caractéristiques de poids, de taille et de puissance des automobiles, détermine à la fois le coût et la consommation de carburant des véhicules et contribue à forger une image "type" de la voiture comme objet en soi plutôt que comme mode de déplacement. Dans ce contexte, se pose la question de l'émergence de nouvelles technologies et de nouveaux services moins émetteurs de gaz à effet de serre pour répondre à une demande de mobilité privée et motorisée. Le Petit Véhicule Urbain (PVU) peut s'appréhender comme une nouvelle technologie visant à rendre un service bien déterminé, la mobilité urbaine. Le travail mené, à l'aide en particulier du dispositif de modélisation POLES, vise à quantifier les possibilités de pénétration du PVU comme alternative au Véhicule Multi¬fonction classique sur le marché de la mobilité urbaine jusqu'en 2050 et à estimer les conséquences de son adoption en termes de volume d'émission de gaz à effet de serre.

International audience