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This paper focuses on the effect of the presence of a disabled child in a family and in particular on its demographically relevant consequences in a comparative framework. The consequences on families of having a child with disabilities are manifold; they can be so strong that the lives of these families differs significantly from that of others. The birth of a baby with a disability or finding out that a child suffers from a disability can be a traumatic event for parents and can have profound effects on the entire family. Using data from Gender and Generation Surveys, and using descriptive statistics, we show that couples who rear a disabled child are more frequently unstable, more often forego their fertility intentions, more frequently suffer from economic difficulties, show more traditional gender role arrangements, are more frequently in bad health, and have lower well-being than families without disabilities. The consequences are also different for mothers and fathers: fathers of disabled children have fewer emotional exchanges, while mothers tend to suffer more in terms of social contact. Feelings of emptiness, loneliness and rejection are more typical of mothers with disabled children. After showing these results in different European countries, we will analyse more specifically the situation of Italian families with and without disabled children. In fact, Italian data are collected for all members of the family and provide a rich source of information on the family members’ well-being. This paper contributes to the existing literature by showing that comparative large-scale surveys on topics other than disability (such as the Gender and Generation surveys) can be quite a rich source of information on the family life of disabled children.

This chapter explores cross-national differences in fertility-related norms. In particular, we study whether such norms are weaker in countries that have progressed further along the path of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) than in countries where the SDT has not yet ‘caught on’. Based on an analysis of ESS data, three key conclusions are drawn. First, country differences in the lower and upper age deadline for childbearing are small. At the same time, there is substantial cross-national variation in approval of voluntary childlessness, having a child while one is cohabiting unmarried, and women combining a full-time job and small children. Secondly, cross-national variation in approval of voluntary childlessness and in approval of having children in a consensual union are strongly related to how far a country is ‘advanced’ in the SDT process. The link between the SDT and deadlines for childbearing and approval of combining a full-time job and having small children is much weaker or non-existing. Thus, the SDT does not imply a general weakening of demographically relevant norms. Thirdly, across Europe, the highly educated, the religiously uncommitted, and those who value autonomy are much more likely to approve behaviours that are in line with the SDT than people with the opposite set of characteristics. At the same time, country-level differences in norms about voluntary childlessness and having a child outside marriage remain prominent, even if compositional differences in individual-level characteristics are taken into account. Thus, this study clearly shows the importance both of compositional and genuinely contextual effects

This chapter lays the theoretical and methodological foundation for the book, Reproductive decision-making in a macro-micro perspective. It introduces the issues addressed in the book and the European Commission Seventh Framework funded collaborative research project, REPRO, on which it is based. A brief overview of the recent trend toward low fertility in Europe and the gap between desired and achieved family size at national levels (known as the fertility gap) is provided. The theoretical argument which follows is that, to understand macro-level trends in fertility, a thorough knowledge of micro-processes and how the macro- and micro-levels are interrelated, is necessary. A model of relationships between macro- and micro-levels is presented before a brief discussion of macro-level modelling which, in addition to its benefits, is at risk of errors arising from compositional effects and the ecological fallacy. The social psychological Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the framework adapted for micro-level modelling in this book, is presented here in a form specific to reproductive decision making. The chapter also includes discussion of issues associated with satisfactory integration of macro- and micro-level information, focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of comparative micro-studies and multi-level modelling.

Takes a new approach to understanding Europe’s fertility gap - Demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making - Provides new insights into how people make decisions about having children as well as how policies affect fertility This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international team of leading demographers and psychologists, the book presents the theoretical and methodological developments of a three-year, European Commission-funded project named REPRO (Reproductive Decision-Making in a Macro-Micro Perspective). It also provides an overview of the research conducted by REPRO researchers both during and after the project. The book examines fertility intentions from quantitative and qualitative perspectives, demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making, and offers a multi-level analysis of fertility-related norms across Europe. Overall, this book offers insight into how people make decisions to have children, when they are most likely to act on their decisions, and how different social and policy settings affect their decisions and actions. It will appeal to researchers, graduate students, and policy advisors with an interest in fertility, demography, and life-course decision making.

Short-term variations in fertility and seasonal patterns of childbearing have been of interest to demographers for a long time. Presenting our detailed study of period fertility in Austria since 1984, we discuss the problems and advantages of constructing and analysing monthly series of various period fertility indicators that reflect real exposure and potentially minimise the distortions caused by changes in fertility timing. We correct monthly birth data for calendar and seasonal factors and show that seasonality of births in Austria varies by birth order. Our study suggests that most of the timing distortions can be eliminated when using an indicator derived from the period parity progression ratios based on birth interval distributions, termed the "period average parity" (PAP). We illustrate the insights gained with the PAP and compare this with the commonly used total fertility rates in an analysis of the recent upswing in period fertility, starting in the late 2001. This investigation will be useful in establishing a monitoring of monthly fertility rates in Austria.

Most projections of urban and rural populations are generated by models that are fundamentally nonspatial and uniregional in character. Migration streams are treated as net flows, and urban and rural populations are projected independently of each other. This paper argues for a multiregional spatial perspective that incorporates directional gross migration flows. Differences between the two approaches are identified and problems of bias and inconsistency are discussed.

This paper examines the recent evolution of Bulgaria's population. It is part of IIASA's comparative study of migration and settlement patterns in its member nations. The paper presents a multiregional demographic analysis of fertility, mortality, and internal migration for a seven-region disaggregation of the Bulgarian state. The results give a detailed snapshot of current spatial population dynamics in the country and offer valuable insights useful for improving the national population policy.

The multiregional population projection models can be rewritten in terms of eigenvalues and eigenvectors and an analytical solution can be obtained using coefficients that are determined by two different methods. The growth path can then be decomposed showing that it may be divided into five stages. These procedures are discussed in this paper and are illustrated with data for three regions in Belgium: Brussels, Flanders, and Wallonia.

Socioeconomic changes in the Eastern European socialist countries have considerably altered demographic patterns. In order to analyze these changes, a comparative study of fertility, mortality, and migration, at the regional level has been carried out. The method used is that of multiregional demography. It is shown that while the mortality patterns are more or less uniform in the regions of the five countries under consideration, the fertility and mortality patterns are more diverse, although they still correspond to the degree of the regional socioeconomic development.

This paper develops a procedure for carrying out multiregional population projections disaggregated by region of birth. Two classes of projections are developed: "native-independent" projections that assign to all residents of a region identical probabilities of transition and "native-dependent" projections that further disaggregate such probabilities by region of birth. The results underscore the importance of incorporating place-of-birth-specific information in demographic analysis.

Roughly 1.8 billion people, 42 percent of the world's population, live in urban areas today. At the beginning of the last century, the urban population totaled only 25 million. According to recent United Nations estimates, about 3.1 billion people, twice today's urban population, will be living in urban areas by the year 2000. Scholars and policy makers often disagree when it comes to evaluating the desirability of current rapid rates of urban growth and urbanization in many parts of the world. Some see this trend as fostering national processes of socioeconomic development, particularly in the poorer and rapidly urbanizing countries of the Third World, whereas others believe the consequences to be largely undesirable and argue that such urban growth should be slowed down. Migration and natural increase are the two contributors to urban population growth. The complex question of which of the two is more important is analyzed in this article through the use of simulation techniques. Immediate effects are contrasted with long-run effects, and the age of the migrant is considered as an important factor, along with the crucial variable of rural population growth.

A general problem in the analysis of mobility is caused by the comparison of data stemming from different time-period durations. Various methods for easing this problem have been suggested. In this paper, an extension of the mover-stayer model is discussed. A method for its solution is suggested by making use of matrix transformation and eigenvalue theory. The discussion is carried out in terms of migration tables and multiregional life tables, and data for three regions of Great Britain have been used for an illustration.

This collection of national reports deals with the comparative analysis of internal migration and spatial population growth in the 17 National Member Organization countries of IIASA. Patterns of population change are explored by applying the new multiregional methodologies and computer programs elaborated in the Human Settlements and Services Area. All reports have the same structure and include multiregional life tables, spatial mortality, fertility, and migration expectancies, and multiregional population projections. Each Migration and Settlement report is authored by a native collaborating scholar familiar with the demographic setting of his/her country. In this report, Dimiter Philipov analyzes recent changes in Bulgaria's patterns of population redistribution and studies in detail the demographic dynamics of seven economic planning regions.

Regional policy problems are universal. This means that all countries need good methods for analyzing and solving their regional problems. Models for regional policy making and planning have also been worked out in scientific institutions. It is obvious that these abstract models are often not specific enough to be used in policy making but have to be adapted to the institutional, historical and natural conditions of the specific region to be planned. It is one of the ambitions with the Silistra regional case study, reported in this volume, to test the possibility of applying regional policy models, developed in Bulgaria, at IIASA and elsewhere, to the solution of the Silistra development problems. Some of the models suggested for the Silistra case study are presented in this volume. These models should, however, not be viewed in isolation but as parts of a general systems approach. The papers by M. Albegov and A. Andersson/A. La Bella give examples of possible systems approaches to integration of regional policy models into a consistent system. This volume basically contains papers on model design. Few papers report on actual use of the models in applications for policy making. The application of these models is planned to be reported in later Task Force Proceedings, when the work has progressed into a stage of close cooperation with the decision makers and national economy planners of the Silistra region. We also have the ambition to come to a stage of generalization of the modeling experiences gained in this case study so that other countries can benefit from the experiences gained in the Silistra case study.

This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international team of leading demographers and psychologists, the book presents the theoretical and methodological developments of a three-year, European Commission-funded project named REPRO (Reproductive Decision-Making in a Macro-Micro Perspective). It also provides an overview of the research conducted by REPRO researchers both during and after the project. The book examines fertility intentions from quantitative and qualitative perspectives, demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making, and offers a multi-level analysis of fertility-related norms across Europe. Overall, this book offers insight into how people make decisions to have children, when they are most likely to act on their decisions, and how different social and policy settings affect their decisions and actions. It will appeal to researchers, graduate students, and policy advisors with an interest in fertility, demography, and life-course decision making.

This book provides new insights into the significant gap that currently exists between desired and actual fertility in Europe. It examines how people make decisions about having children and demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making. Written by an international team of leading demographers and psychologists, the book presents the theoretical and methodological developments of a three-year, European Commission-funded project named REPRO (Reproductive Decision- Making in a Macro-Micro Perspective). It also provides an overview of the research conducted by REPRO researchers both during and after the project. The book examines fertility intentions from quantitative and qualitative perspectives, demonstrates how the macro-level environment affects micro-level decision-making, and offers a multi-level analysis of fertility-related norms across Europe. Overall, this book offers insight into how people make decisions to have children, when they are most likely to act on their decisions, and how different social and policy settings affect their decisions and actions. It will appeal to researchers, graduate students, and policy advisors with an interest in fertility, demography, and life-course decision making.