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Like many exchanges the Chicago Mercantile Exchange allows traders to conceal part of their limit orders, known as a hidden‐limit order (HLO) or iceberg order. With HLOs, market participants have incomplete knowledge of the order book. To assess the effect of this lack of transparency in a period of highly volatile markets, we investigate the patterns and market impacts of HLOs in the U.S. corn and live cattle futures markets. Our conservative estimates indicate that HLOs represent more than 10% (20%) of the total volume in corn (live cattle) futures market. The findings show that the existence of HLOs improves market quality in multiple dimensions: driving trading volume while reducing market volatility and enhancing market liquidity. Our results are critical for regulators and exchanges as they are supportive of a degree of opacity. They are also indicative that market traders hide successfully, which can protect traders who have speed disadvantages in the era of fast trading.

Purpose: Stress-induced adrenergic signaling can suppress the immune system. In animal models, pharmacological beta-blockade stimulates CD8+ T-cell activity and improves clinical activity of immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) in inhibiting tumor growth. Herein, we investigated the effect of BB on clinical outcomes of patients receiving ICB in advanced solid tumors.Methods:We retrospectively evaluated patients with solid tumors treated with ICB at our institution from January 1, 2011 to April 28, 2017. The primary clinical outcome was disease control. Secondary clinical outcomes were overall survival (OS), and duration of therapy (DoT). The primary predictor was use of BB. Association between disease control status and BB use was assessed in univariable and multivariable logistic regression. OS was calculated using hazard ratios of BB-recipient patients versus BB non-recipient patients via Cox proportional hazards regression models. All tests were two-sided at a significance level of 0.05. ResultsOf 339 identified patients receiving ICB, 109 (32%) also received BB. In covariate-adjusted analysis, odds of disease control were significantly higher among BB recipients compared to BB-non-recipients (2.79; [1.54-5.03]; p=0.001). While we did not observe significant association of OS with the use of BB overall, significant association with better OS was observed for the urothelial carcinoma cohort (HR: 0.24; [0.09, 0.62]; P=0.0031). Conclusions:Concurrent use of BB may enhance the clinical activity of ICB and influence overall survival, particularly in patients with urothelial carcinoma. Our findings warrant further investigation to understand the interaction of beta adrenergic signaling and antitumor immune activity and explore a combination strategy.

The COVID-19 pandemic first became evident at the end of 2019, and because of the many unknown aspects of this emerging infectious disease, the internet quickly became a source of information for consumers. It is important for any vital information to be written unambiguously, and at a level that can be understood by all people regardless of education levels. The purpose of this study was to assess the readability of 50 sources of COVID19 testing information online. Only 6 websites out of 50 received an appropriate readability score on more than one assessment. One-sample, one-tailed t-tests (α = 0.05, df = 49) were used to see if the websites with information on COVID-19 testing are being written at appropriate reading levels. The resulting p-values indicate that each p-value recorded is substantially below 0.05, it is very unlikely that websites on this topic are being written at the recommended levels. Even the optimal messages on COVID-19 reflect a confusing and rapidly changing public health crisis, however if messages are kept simple and clear, individuals will have the best possible chance of optimizing behavioral mitigation strategies. These are compelling reasons for informational hosts to take necessary steps to ensure that messages are written in as simple terms as possible. To this end, it is suggested that internet sites dispersing COVID-19 testing information build in text analysis methods for all published messages, particularly those meant to inform best health practices in the time of a pandemic.

The paper assesses the value of USDA information in the electronic corn futures markets. While recent research has documented large price volatility spikes after USDA announcements, increased volatility does not directly translate into value. Using multiple newly developed risk‐premium measures and intraday data, we extend the Carter and Galopin approach based on estimating the risk‐adjusted profits that accrue to advanced USDA information. Using the 2010–2020 period, the analysis demonstrates that USDA announcement surprises have economic value, with WASDE surprises from NASS‐WASDE joint events being always valuable under all risk preferences. While the value is sensitive to these preferences, risk is relatively small because prices usually move in the direction of the market surprise which minimises losses. NASS surprises also contain value, though less than WASDE and only for the less risk averse traders. While overall risk is generally small, the intensified volatility right after the announcement points to the presence of noise and to the inadequacy of inferring the value of public information through price variability alone.

Objectives Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are being increasingly used across cancer types. Emergency room (ER) and inpatient (IP) care, common in patients with cancer, remain poorly defined in this specific population, and risk factors for such care are unknown. Methods We retrospectively reviewed charts for patients with solid tumors who received >1 ICI dose at 1 of 2 sites from January 1, 2011 to April 28, 2017. Demographics, medical history, cancer diagnosis/therapy/toxicity details, and outcomes were recorded. Descriptive data detailing ER/IP care at the 2 associated hospitals during ICI therapy (from first dose to 3 mo after last dose) were collected. The Fisher exact test and multivariate regression analysis was used to study differences between patients with versus without ER/IP care during ICI treatment. Results Among 345 patients studied, 50% had at least 1 ER visit during ICI treatment and 43% had at least 1 IP admission. Six percent of ER/IP visits eventually required intensive care. A total of 12% of ER/IP visits were associated with suspected or confirmed immune-related adverse events. Predictors of ER care were African-American race (odds ratio [OR]: 3.83, P=0.001), Hispanic ethnicity (OR: 3.12, P=0.007), and coronary artery disease (OR: 2.43, P=0.006). Predictors of IP care were African-American race (OR: 2.38, P=0.024), Hispanic ethnicity (OR: 2.29, P=0.045), chronic kidney disease (OR: 3.89, P=0.006), angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker medication use (OR: 0.44, P=0.009), and liver metastasis (OR: 2.32, P=0.003). Conclusions Understanding demographic and clinical risk factors for ER/IP care among patients on ICIs can help highlight disparities, prospectively identify high-risk patients, and inform preventive programs aimed at reducing such care.

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) DNA (i.e., genetic) testing has become very popular, with close to 30 million Americans having used these services. The 100 most widely viewed DNA YouTube testing videos were analyzed to determine whether they are providing adequate information for consumers. The top 100 videos had more than 300 million cumulative views, showing the popularity and reach of the information source. While many videos addressed the specimen collection process, family roots and ancestry, and the prospect of uncovering unexpected information about family or health leading to possible distress, almost none of the videos addressed accuracy or confidentiality issues, which are major issues of DNA testing. It is recommended that further information on those issues be made readily available, and more vigilant oversight by regulatory agencies be implemented. Such oversight should include monitoring what information is and is not readily provided by each company, and the veracity of information being communicated to existing and prospective consumers. We also recommend that for medical issues, clinical genetic testing, along with genetic counseling by genetic counselors, be the method of choice.

Background Dengue is the fastest spreading viral infection. A number of epidemics have occurred in subtropical and tropical regions of the United States. A future expansion and intensification of dengue has been predicted, partly due to changing environmental conditions. In the absence of treatment, prevention and control are vital to addressing this vector-borne disease. Health education and community engagement are a key part of such efforts. Given that the majority of Americans search for health information online, ensuring the readability of web-based dengue information is an important consideration for health officials. To date, there is a dearth of information on this topic. Methods To address this gap, "Dengue fever" was searched using Google Chrome to generate a sample of 100 websites. Using Readable.io, the readability of these 100 sites was then determined using five different tests. The data were analyzed using SPSS. Results The results indicate that the vast majority of online materials on dengue are written at a level far beyond what is recommended. Three of the five tests did not find any of the sampled sites to be appropriate in terms of readability. In general, the websites analyzed tended to be written at a level beyond the 10th grade. Conclusion These findings have important implications for future dengue outbreaks in the United States.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) recently identified large intra‐day price changes or “flash events” in continuously traded commodity futures markets. These flash events fueled discussion on whether futures markets are becoming less effective as human intervention is diminishing in favor of automated trading. Using intra‐day data, we examine liquidity resilience during “flash events” in corn and lean hog futures markets from 2014 to 2019. Overall, we find little evidence that the liquidity provision in these two markets relative to normal days becomes fragile when large price movements occur. Our analysis suggests that flash events are heavily influenced by unanticipated changes in fundamentals that may lead to a new equilibrium price. Liquidity dynamics during these events supports the view that active market making helps absorb the increased volume and stabilize markets.

This paper investigates the effect of algorithmic trading activity, as measured by quoting, on the corn, soybean, and live cattle commodity futures market quality. Using the CME’s limit-order-book ...

Stuttering is a neurodevelopmental disorder that begins in early childhood. Information about the disorder and intervention is important for persons who wish to speak more easily and communicate more effectively. The internet is usually the first source of information for adults who stutter and parents of children who stutter. This study was undertaken to examine the readability of the most popular stuttering websites, and whether this is in line with the general population’s reading ability. A search was conducted with the key word “stuttering.” The first 100 websites that met a set of criteria were included in the analyses. Along with the readability tests, the websites’ extensions were recorded. The URLs were input into an automatic readability score generator. A number of tests were performed. These tests included the Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease (FKRE), Simple Measure of Gobbledygook (SMOG) Grade Level, Coleman-Liau Index (CLI), Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL), and Gunning Fog Index (GFI). Findings suggest that the 100 most popular websites about stuttering are written at a higher than the recommended 5th grade reading level. Websites with URL extensions .edu, .org, and .gov are generally written at a significantly higher level (i.e., are more difficult to read) compared with others (e.g., .net and .com). Overall, the results indicated that the readability level of the information online on stuttering is substantially higher than recommended. Simpler writing would permit a larger part of the general population to access useful information, thereby increasing the potential to help with early identification of young children with stuttering, their families, and adults who stutter.

The rise of commodity index traders (CITs) in the early 2000s provides a natural experiment to identify whether passive holding of long agricultural futures positions earns a positive risk premium. We use nearly a decade of daily nonpublic position data for all large traders to compute trading profits in twelve agricultural futures markets. Despite increasing price trends in a majority of markets, CITs were the biggest losers during the sample period, experiencing losses in nine out of twelve markets and an aggregate loss of $6.9 billion. This is just the opposite of the prediction of the theory of normal backwardation.

As the United States experiences an unprecedented crisis related to the use and misuse of opioid drugs, the number of overdose fatalities continues to rise each year. One effective strategy to redu...

The article sheds light on price jump risk in corn futures prices in the era of electronic trading and after the shift to real‐time announcement of USDA reports. Using intraday prices from 2008 to 2015, we employ a nonparametric test to detect jumps and variance analysis to assess the relative importance of jump risk. Real‐time trading of major USDA reports has substantially increased the frequency and clustering of price jumps, and results in higher market liquidity costs. In contrast, although the presence of jumps on non‐announcement days has doubled recently, their magnitude has declined as have transactions costs during their occurrence. The largest jump risk or execution risk is experienced by high frequency traders due to heightened microstructure noise during price jumps. However, traders holding long‐term market positions are only minimally affected by increased jump risk.

The paper pioneers research on high frequency (HF) quoting noise in electronically traded agricultural futures markets. HF quoting – quickly cancelling posted limit orders and replacing them with n...

Objective:The purpose of this study was to assess the readability of information on the Internet posted about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to determine how closely these materials are written to the recommended reading levels.Methods:Using the search term “coronavirus,” information posted on the first 100 English language websites was identified. Using an online readability calculator, multiple readability tests were conducted to ensure a comprehensive representation would result.Results:The mean readability scores ranged between grade levels 6.2 and 17.8 (graduate school level). Four of the 5 measures (GFI, CLI, SMOG, FRE) found that readability exceeded the 10th grade reading level indicating that the text of these websites would be difficult for the average American to read. The mean reading level for nearly all noncommercial and commercial websites was at or above the 10th grade reading level.Conclusions:Messages about COVID-19 must be readable at an “easy” level, and must contain clear guidelines for behavior. The degree to which individuals seek information in response to risk messages is positively related to the expectation that the information will resolve uncertainty. However, if the information is too complex to interpret and it fails to lead to disambiguation, this can contribute to feelings of panic.

Clostridium difficile (C. diff) is a bacterium that causes diarrhea and kills an estimated 29,000 people per year (over one-half of which is directly attributable to C. diff). The objective...

Background: Web-based patient education literature has been shown to be written at reading levels far above what is recommended. Little is known about the overall readability of current internet-based bariatric surgery information. The purpose of this study was to assess the readability of current bariatric material on the internet. Methods: The term "weight loss surgery" was searched using the Chrome browser on the first 15pages of URLs that appeared with content written in English. Using five readability measures, scores were generated using Readable.io for written content on a sample of 96 websites. Scores were sorted into the readability categories of "easy," "average," and "difficult." Results: Almost 93% of websites, both .com and .org, sampled received an unacceptable readability score on each assessment. Conclusion: Accurate and appropriate information about bariatric procedures is critical for patient comprehension and adherence to recommended protocols.

Using quantile regression, we evaluate the forecasting performance of futures prices in the soybean complex. The procedure provides a more complete picture of the distribution of forecasts than mainstream methods that only focus on central tendency measures. Forecast performance differs by location in the futures price distribution. Futures forecast perform well in the centre of the distribution. However, futures prices tend to over-forecast when futures prices are high and under-forecast when futures prices are low, suggesting that futures prices tend to under-estimate price reversion towards the centre of the distribution. Forecast errors are larger when futures prices are high. The findings are related to theories in the literature used to explain pricing bias, and their implications for market participants are discussed.

The incidence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in children has been increasing steadily in the USA. The material that is available online is not always reader-friendly and may leave readers unclear on their questions. Considering the prevalence of ASD in the USA and the general population’s limited reading abilities, the purpose of this study was to discern the degree to which articles posted online are readable at the recommended grade level. A search was conducted with the key words “Autism Spectrum Disorder.” The first 100 websites that met this criterion were included in the analyses. Along with the readability tests, the websites’ extensions were recorded. The URLs were input into an automatic readability score generator. Several readability tests were performed: Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level (FKGL), Gunning Fog Index (GFI), Coleman-Liau Index (CLI), Simple Measure of Gobbledygook (SMOG) Grade Level, and Flesch-Kincaid Reading Ease (FRE). Group 1 (websites with extensions .org, .gov, .edu) had better readability scores compared to Group 2 (.com, .net, or other: .ca, .int, .uk, .us) for six of the nine tests, suggesting that websites with URL extensions .org, .gov, and .edu are easier to read compared to others (.com, .net, etc.). Overall, the results indicated that the readability level of the information online on ASD is substantially higher than recommended. Simpler writing would permit a larger part of the general population to access useful information, thereby increasing the potential to help with early identification of young children with ASD and help families.

Clinical trials are critically important for the development of new cancer treatments. According to recent estimates, however, clinical trial enrollment is only about 8%. Lack of patient understanding or awareness of clinical trials is one reason for the low rate of participation. The purpose of this observational study was to evaluate the readability of cancer clinical trial websites designed to educate the general public and patients about clinical trials. Nearly 90% of Americans use Google to search for health-related information. We conducted a Google Chrome Incognito search in 2018 using the keywords “cancer clinical trial” and “cancer clinical trials.” Content of the 100 cancer clinical trial websites was analyzed using an online readability panel consisting of Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level, Flesch Reading Ease, Gunning-Fog Index, Coleman-Liau Index, and Simple Measure of Gobbledygook scales. Reading level difficulty was assessed and compared between commercial versus non-commercial URL extensions. Content readability was found to be “difficult” (10.7 grade level). No significant difference in readability, overall, and between commercial and non-commercial URL extensions was found using 4/5 measures of readability; 90.9% of commercial versus 49.4% of non-commercial websites were written at a >10th grade ( P = .013) using Gunning-Fog Index. Written cancer clinical trials content on the Internet is written at a reading level beyond the literacy capabilities of the average American reader. Improving readability to accommodate readers with basic literacy skills will provide an opportunity for greater comprehension that could potentially result in higher rates of clinical trial enrollment.

Graphing procedures for evaluating power or interaction terms in binary logit and probit models are illustrated in an application to hog producers' decisions based on transaction cost economics' hypothesised positive effect of the interaction of uncertainty and asset specificity on contract use. Results support the hypothesis, particularly for producers that are otherwise on the cusp (near the 50/50 probability) of choosing either contract or spot transactions based on their responses for other variables. Such insights may not be drawn without use of the demonstrated graphing procedures.

Background Caring for young children is a known risk factor for cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection mainly through exposure to their saliva and urine. In a previous study, 36 CMV-seropositive children 2 mo. to 4 years old were categorized as CMV shedders (n = 23) or non-shedders (n = 13) based on detection of CMV DNA in their saliva and urine. The current study evaluated the presence of CMV on surfaces in homes of the children. Methods Study staff made 4 visits to homes of the 36 enrolled children over 100 days. Saliva was collected by swabbing the mouth and urine was collected on filter paper inserted into diapers. In addition, five surface specimens were collected: three in contact with children’s saliva (spoon, child’s cheek, washcloth) and two in contact with children’s urine (diaper changing table, mother’s hand). Samples were tested by PCR and viral culture to quantify the presence of CMV DNA and viable virus. Results A total of 654 surface samples from 36 homes were tested; 136 were CMV DNA positive, 122 of which (90%) were in homes of the children shedding CMV (p

Recently, U.S. live cattle futures prices have experienced high levels of intraday price variance, which have raised concerns about the possible impact of microstructure noise from high frequency trading on market instability. This article identifies both the magnitude and the duration of the bias caused by market microstructure noise in measuring efficient price variance in the live cattle futures market from 2011 to 2016, with emphasis on price variance behavior in recent years. Market microstructure noise increases observed price variance, but its effects are not large and do not last more than three to four minutes in response to changing information. Intraday price variance has increased in recent years, but the findings provide little evidence that high frequency traders were responsible for economically meaningful market noise. Informatively, steps taken by the CME and cattle producers to mitigate noise have not been fruitful to date, and signal that the magnitude of noise will likely vary with the magnitude of changes in demand and cyclical supply.