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The presence of free-grazing ducks (FGD) has consistently been shown to be associated with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 outbreaks in South-East Asia. However, the lack of knowledge about the transmission pathways limits the effectiveness of control efforts. To address this gap, we developed a probabilistic transmission model of HPAIV H5N1 in the nomadic FGD production system in Viet Nam, assuming different scenarios to address parameter uncertainty. Results suggested that HPAIV H5N1 could spread within the nomadic FGD production system, with an estimated flock-level effective reproduction number (r(e)) ranging from 2.16 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39-3.49) to 6.10 (95%CI: 3.93-9.85) depending on the scenario. Indirect transmission via boats and trucks was shown to be the main transmission route in all scenarios. Results suggest that r(e) could be reduced below one with 95% confidence if 86% of FGD flocks were vaccinated in the best-case scenario or 95% in the worst-case scenario. If vaccination was combined with cleaning and disinfection of transport vehicles twice a week, vaccination coverage could be lowered to 60% in the best-case scenario. These findings are of particular relevance for prioritising interventions for effective control of HPAIV in nomadic free-grazing duck production systems.

We review the nature of interdisciplinary research in relation to One Health, a perspective on human-animal health which would appear to merit close interdisciplinary cooperation to inform public health policy. We discuss the relationship between biological sciences, epidemiology and the social sciences and note that interdisciplinary work demands attention be given to a range of often neglected epistemological and methodological issues. Epidemiologists may sometimes adopt social science techniques as “bolt-ons”1 to their research without having a complete understanding of how the social sciences work. The paper introduces a range of social science concepts and applies them to the challenges of understanding and practicing participatory and local epidemiology. We consider the problem of co-production of knowledge about One Health and zoonotic diseases in relation to funding structures, working in large international teams and explore some of the often-neglected realities of working across disciplines and cultures. We do this in part by applying the concept of value-chain to the research process.

Live bird markets (LBMs) are major targets for avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance programmes. While sampling the LBM environment has become a widely used alternative to the labour-intensive sampling of live poultry, the design of surveillance programmes and the interpretation of their results are compromised by the lack of knowledge about the effectiveness of these sampling strategies. We used latent class models and a unique empirical dataset collated in Vietnamese LBMs to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five different sample types for detecting AIVs subtypes H5N1 and H5N6: oropharyngeal duck samples, solid and liquid wastes, poultry drinking water and faeces. Results suggest that the sensitivity of environmental samples for detecting H5N1 viruses is equivalent to that of oropharyngeal duck samples; however, taking oropharyngeal duck samples was estimated to be more effective in detecting H5N6 viruses than taking any of the four environmental samples. This study also stressed that the specificity of the current surveillance strategy in LBMs was not optimal leading to some false positive LBMs. Using simulations, we identified 42 sampling strategies more parsimonious than the current strategy and expected to be highly sensitive for both viruses at the LBM level. All of these strategies involved the collection of both environmental and oropharyngeal duck samples.

We conducted a cross-sectional study in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka and Chittagong, Bangladesh, to estimate the prevalence of avian influenza A(H5) and A(H9) viruses in different types of poultry and environmental areas by using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models. We detected these viruses in nearly all LBMs. Prevalence of A(H5) virus was higher in waterfowl than in chickens, whereas prevalence of A(H9) virus was higher in chickens than in waterfowl and, among chicken types, in industrial broilers than in cross-breeds and indigenous breeds. LBMs with >1 wholesaler were more frequently contaminated by A(H5) virus than retail-only LBMs. Prevalence of A(H9) virus in poultry and level of environmental contamination were also higher in LBMs with >1 wholesaler. We found a high level of circulation of both avian influenza viruses in surveyed LBMs. Prevalence was influenced by type of poultry, environmental site, and trading patterns because our study included previously collected data.

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is an important animal health issue in many parts of the world. In England and Wales, the primary test to detect infected animals is the single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin test, which compares immunological responses to bovine and avian tuberculins. Inconclusive test reactors (IRs) are animals that demonstrate a positive reaction to the bovine tuberculin only marginally greater than the avian reaction, so are not classified as reactors and immediately removed. In the absence of reactors in the herd, IRs are isolated, placed under movement restrictions and re-tested after 60 days. Other animals in these herds at the time of the IR result are not usually subject to movement restrictions. This could affect efforts to control TB if undetected infected cattle move out of those herds before the next TB test. To improve our understanding of the importance of IRs, this study aimed to assess whether median survival time and the hazard of a subsequent TB incident differs in herds with only IRs detected compared with negative-testing herds. Survival analysis and extended Cox regression were used, with herds entering the study on the date of the first whole herd test in 2012. An additional analysis was performed using an alternative entry date to try to remove the impact of IR retesting and is presented in the Supplementary Material. Survival analysis showed that the median survival time among IR only herds was half that observed for clear herds (2.1 years and 4.2 years respectively; p < 0.001). Extended Cox regression analysis showed that IR-only herds had 2.7 times the hazard of a subsequent incident compared with negative-testing herds in year one (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% CI: 2.54, 2.84; p < 0.001), and that this difference in the hazard reduced by 63% per year. After 2.7 years the difference had disappeared. The supplementary analysis supported these findings showing that IR only herds still had a greater hazard of a subsequent incident after the IR re-test, but that the effect was reduced. This emphasizes the importance of careful decision making around the management of IR animals and indicates that re-testing alone may not be sufficient to reduce the risk posed by IR only herds in England and Wales.

Presence of ducks, and in particular of free-grazing ducks, has consistently been shown to be one of the most important risk factors for highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks which has compromised poultry production in South-East Asia since the early 2000s and continues to threaten public health, farmers' livelihood and food security. Although free-grazing duck production has been practised for decades in South-East Asia, there are few published studies describing this production system, which is suspected to play an important role in the maintenance of avian influenza viruses. This study aimed at describing quantitatively the long-distance free-grazing duck production system in South Vietnam, characterising the movement and contact patterns of the duck flocks, and identifying potential associations between farming practices, movement and contact patterns and the circulation of avian influenza viruses. We conducted interviews among stakeholders involved in the free-grazing duck production system (duck farmers, transporters and rice paddy owners) in combination with a virological cross-sectional survey in South Vietnam. Results show that both direct and indirect contacts between free-grazing duck flocks were frequent and diverse. The flocks were transported extensively across district and province boundaries, mainly by boat but also by truck or on foot. A third of the investigated flocks had a positive influenza A virology test, indicating current circulation of avian influenza viruses, but none were positive for H5 subtypes. The age and size of the flock as well as its location at the time of sampling were associated with the risk of influenza A circulation in the flocks. These findings should be considered when developing risk assessment models of influenza virus spread aimed at informing the development of improved biosecurity practices leading to enhanced animal health, sustainable animal production and reliable income for farmers.

Live bird markets are often the focus of surveillance activities monitoring avian influenza viruses (AIV) circulating in poultry. However, in order to ensure a high sensitivity of virus detection and effectiveness of management actions, poultry management practices features influencing AIV dynamics need to be accounted for in the design of surveillance programmes. In order to address this knowledge gap, a cross-sectional survey was conducted through interviews with 791 traders in 18 Vietnamese live bird markets. Markets greatly differed according to the sources from which poultry was obtained, and their connections to other markets through the movements of their traders. These features, which could be informed based on indicators that are easy to measure, suggest that markets could be used as sentinels for monitoring virus strains circulating in specific segments of the poultry production sector. AIV spread within markets was modelled. Due to the high turn-over of poultry, viral amplification was likely to be minimal in most of the largest markets. However, due to the large number of birds being introduced each day, and challenges related to cleaning and disinfection, environmental accumulation of viruses at markets may take place, posing a threat to the poultry production sector and to public health.

The expanding distribution of African swine fever (ASF) is threatening the pig industry worldwide. Most outbreaks occur in backyard and small-scale herds, where poor farmers often attempt to limit the disease’s economic consequences by the emergency sale of their pigs. The risk of African swine fever virus (ASFV) release via this emergency sale was investigated. Simulation modeling was used to study ASFV transmission in backyard and small-scale farms as well as the emergency sale of pigs, and the potential impact of improving farmers and traders’ clinical diagnosis ability–its timeliness and/or accuracy–was assessed. The risk of ASFV release was shown to be high, and improving farmers’ clinical diagnosis ability does not appear sufficient to effectively reduce this risk. Estimates obtained also showed that the distribution of herd size within the backyard and small-scale sectors influences the relative contribution of these farms to the risk of release of infected pigs. These findings can inform surveillance and control programs.

Zambia has been experiencing low livestock productivity as well as trade restrictions owing to the occurrence of foot and mouth disease (FMD), but little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in these endemic settings. The fundamental questions relate to the spatio-temporal distribution of FMD cases and what determines their occurrence. A retrospective review of FMD cases in Zambia from 1981 to 2012 was conducted using geographical information systems and the SaTScan software package. Information was collected from peer-reviewed journal articles, conference proceedings, laboratory reports, unpublished scientific reports and grey literature. A space–time permutation probability model using a varying time window of one year was used to scan for areas with high infection rates. The spatial scan statistic detected a significant purely spatial cluster around the Mbala–Isoka area between 2009 and 2012, with secondary clusters in Sesheke–Kazungula in 2007 and 2008, the Kafue flats in 2004 and 2005 and Livingstone in 2012. This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant FMD clusters and an increase in occurrence in Zambia between 2004 and 2012. The identified clusters agree with areas known to be at high risk of FMD. The FMD virus transmission dynamics and the heterogeneous variability in risk within these locations may need further investigation.

Foot and mouth disease is one of the world’s most important livestock diseases for trade. FMD infections are complex in nature and there are many epidemiological factors needing clarification. Key questions relate to the control challenges and economic impact of the disease for resource-poor FMD endemic countries like Zambia. A review of the control challenges and economic impact of FMD outbreaks in Zambia was made. Information was collected from peer-reviewed journals articles, conference proceedings, unpublished scientific reports, and personal communication with scientists and personal field experiences. The challenges of controlling FMD using mainly vaccination and movement control are discussed. Impacts include losses in income of over US$ 1.6 billion from exports of beef and sable antelopes and an annual cost of over US$ 2.7 million on preventive measures. Further impacts included unquantified losses in production and low investment in agriculture resulting in slow economic growth. FMD persistence may be a result of inadequate epidemiological understanding of the disease and ineffectiveness of the control measures that are being applied. The identified gaps may be considered in the annual appraisal of the FMD national control strategy in order to advance on the progressive control pathway.