Search

Abstract For many years Norway has been in the forefront of promoting electromobility. Today, Norway has the world’s highest per capita fleet of plug-in electric cars. In 2021, 1.6% of the cars in the EU fleet were plug-in electric vehicles, whereas their share was 21% in Norway. Part of the successful market take-up rate is due to wide-ranging tax exemptions. Increasing plug-in electric vehicles numbers causes tax revenue losses, making exemptions unsustainable. Norway has the ambitious goal that from 2025, all newly registered cars shall be zero-emission vehicles. Keeping tax exemptions in place might be crucial for this goal. The objective of this paper is to provide information to solve this dilemma. Tax exemption reduction and abolition paths which offer a compromise between minimal effects on the development of zero-emission vehicles and tax revenues have been identified. An updated and re-calibrated version of the stock-flow-model SERAPIS was used to simulate and assess different scenarios. Results show that a controlled tax phase-in allows Norway to reach its environmental targets of 100% zero emission vehicles by 2025 and a 55% decrease of CO2-emissions in 2030 relative to 2005 while simultaneously increasing public revenues significantly.

Developments in the field of automated mobility will greatly change our mobility and the possibilities to get from one place to another. This paper presents different scenarios for personal mobility in Austria, anticipating the possibilities and developments in the field of automated vehicles (AVs). The scenarios were developed using a systematically formalized scenario technique and expand the social and political discourse on automated mobility, which is currently characterized by a lack of experience and visibility as an established transport service. Using system dynamics modeling techniques, i.e., the Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator (MARS), impacts of the scenarios on the Austrian transportation system are estimated. The simulations show that, without suitable transport policy measures, automated mobility will lead to a significant increase in the volume of individual traffic and to modal shift effects with lower traffic volumes for public transport, walking and cycling. In addition, without a link between AVs and post-fossil propulsion systems, increases in pollutant emissions can also be expected. In contrast, the simulation results of an increased use of AVs in public transport show positive effects for the support of a more sustainable mobility. Hence, transport policy measures accompanying the introduction and development of automated vehicles will be needed in the future to reach a sustainable development.

In a context where digital giants are increasingly influencing the actions decided by public policies, smart data platforms are a tool for collecting a great deal of information on the territory and a means of producing effective public policies to meet contemporary challenges, improve the quality of the city, and create new services. Within the framework of the Smarter Together project, the cities of Lyon (France), Munich (Germany), and Vienna (Austria) have integrated this tool into their city’s metabolism and use it at different scales. Nevertheless, the principle remains the same: the collection (or even dissemination) of internal and external data to the administration will enable the communities, companies, not-for-profit organizations, and civic administrations to “measure” the city and identify areas for improvement in the territory. Furthermore, through open data logics, public authorities can encourage external partners to become actors in territorial action by using findings from the data to produce services that will contribute to the development of the territory and increase the quality of the city and its infrastructure. Nevertheless, based on data that is relatively complex to extract and process, public data platforms raise many legal, technical, economic, and social issues. The cities either avoided collecting personal data or when dealing with sensitive data, use anonymized aggregated data. Cocreation activities with municipal, commercial, civil society stakeholders, and citizens adopted the strategies and tools of the intelligent data platforms to develop new urban mobility and government informational services for both citizens and public authorities. The data platforms are evolving for transparent alignment with 2030 climate-neutrality objectives while municipalities strive for greater agility to respond to disruptive events like the COVID-19 pandemic.

O objetivo do presente estudo é analisar a viabilidade de uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão adequada à visão de planejamento da mobilidade, presente na legislação de mobilidade urbana sob respaldo do Ministério das Cidades, no Brasil. O modelo MARS, ferramenta selecionada para considerar a dinâmica do desenvolvimento urbano e integração entre uso do solo e transportes, foi ajustado para a cidade de Porto Alegre. Oito diferentes cenários de planejamento urbano, considerando diferentes políticas energéticas, foram simulados em um horizonte de trinta anos. Os resultados indicaram que o modelo pode vir a constituir uma importante contribuição para estudos de planejamento da mobilidade urbana sustentável.

Research has shown that most local authorities do not use models in strategy formulation or scheme design and that others who do are doubtful of their value. This paper reports on a study aimed at enhancing analytical planning tools. Firstly, barriers to modelling of policy instruments were assessed by survey and literature review. From this themes for improving the modelling of demand restraint and public transport instruments were identified as areas of main concern along with ease of use and transparency of approach. Enhancements are reported for a range of existing models including strategic, macroscopic and micro-simulation techniques. Although these are demonstrated for specific software applications the methods are transferable to other models. Finally we consider to what extent the barriers have been addressed.

This paper presents a framework for an ex ante appraisal of urban land use and transport strategies. At the core of this framework is a dynamic land use and transport interaction model. Objective functions and an optimisation routine are used to assess the effects of complex strategies formed by policy instrument combinations with different policy levels possible. The main objective of the underlying study is to promote sustainable policies. Therefore the proposed framework considers either explicitly or implicitly all five domains of the STELLA focus group 4 (environment, safety, health, land use and congestion).

• We characterized the resilience of urban mobility when exposed to pandemic threats. • We used system dynamics (causal loop diagrams) to create qualitative models. • A resilient system is driven by response plans, and research & development. • Public awareness is critical to reinforce the use of sustainable transport modes. • The study integrates health security into urban and transport planning. In December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was detected in Wuhan, China. Due to the rapid spread of the disease, containment measures were adopted, which caused unprecedent shifts in individual mobility. Although some studies explored the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on travel patterns and resilience of transport systems based on different analysis techniques, there is a lack of studies addressing the impacts of the pandemic on the sustainability and resilience of urban mobility systems using in-depth and holistic methods, such as system dynamics. This research aims to characterize the dynamics present in urban mobility systems when exposed to pandemics and analyze the changes needed for systems to increase their resilience to pandemics using qualitative system dynamics modeling. The framework comprises the characterization of cause-and-effect relationships and the creation of systems' causal loop diagrams (CLD) in their basic state of functionality, when affected by pandemics, and still operating owing to its resilience. Our findings indicated that the CLD of a resilient system is driven by strategic preparedness and response plans, as well as research and development, which balance the spread of the pandemic and increase support on technological strengths and the activities performed from home. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A strategic land-use-transport interaction model is used to investigate the impacts of policies in technology, infrastructure, pricing and regulation under different assumptions about energy supply. Six scenarios have been defined, analysing three policy strategies in two different contexts of energy supply—A, generally accepted energy supply forecast and B, worst-case energy supply forecast (scarcity of energy). Policies include: business as usual; investment in infrastructure and technology; and a demand regulation based approach involving changes in taxation and tolls. The paper assesses the impact and robustness of each policy against assumptions about future oil supply/demand. Our results demonstrate three key issues. First, scarcity of oil will accelerate the development and take-up of alternative fuel technologies; second, investment in alternative technologies alone will alleviate the impact of local emissions and reduce energy consumption per kilometre travelled but will only reduce yearly carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions after a time lag of about 15 years; so that, third, some form of regulation of demand will be necessary to reduce total emissions and externalities caused by congestion. Research is required to define the necessary level of regulation in combination with technology investments. However, we suggest that a policy involving improvements in infrastructure coupled with investments in fuel technology and differentiated fuel taxes will be required in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]