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We use classification methods from machine learning to predict the destination of global crude oil exports by utilising micro-level crude oil shipment data that incorporates attributes related to the contract, cargo specifications, vessel specifications and macroeconomic conditions. The results show that micro-level information about the oil shipment such as quality and cargo size dominates in the destination prediction. We contribute to the academic literature by providing the first machine learning application to oil shipment data, and by providing new knowledge on the determinants of global crude oil flows. The machine-learning models used to predict the importing country can reach an accuracy of above 71% for the major oil exporting countries based on out-of-sample tests and outperform both naive models and discrete regression models. Keywords: Random forests, Gradient boosted trees, Machine learning, Crude oil, Choice models, 1. INTRODUCTION Oil is one of the most important raw materials and is the lifeblood of the global economy. Indeed, oil and gas provide over 50% of primary energy supplies [...]

Abstract: The oil industry tends to remain disconnected from local realities surrounding production sites, a situation that can be explained by theories of enclaving and technological zones. Despite these barriers, [...]

A look at the effect of resource nationalism on the value of petroleum reserves is discussed. A frame work for treating resource nationalism as political risk was developed using data on the reserve transactions and political risk ratings from the period 2000-2006. The publicly available data from real asset transactions were used to measure the cost of political risk.

In mid-April 2008, outgoing President Vladimir Putin went to Libya. He was the highest-level Russian official ever to visit this petroleum-rich North African country. A number of agreements were reached [...]

The author examines the improved relationship between Japan and China with regard to the demarcation of the South China Sea for oil and gas. The positive indication in the talks has been the favouring of development for both sides, rather than insisting on demarcation.

The article describes the initiatives of China in developing oil in Africa as it is the world's second largest oil consuming country just after the U.S. It is believed that China's practices of energy diplomacy in Africa, is accommodative of the U.S. and can have joint efforts with the U.S. to explore energy in Africa.

Israel has very limited indigenous hydrocarbon resources and is located next to the energy-rich Persian Gulf region. This study is divided into two parts. In the first part Israel's energy outlook is profiled. Specifically, the paper examines the country's oil and natural gas exploration and potential. In the second part the seemingly successful negotiations to export natural gas from Egypt to Israel is discussed. This is followed by an analysis of the efforts to export the Iraqi oil via Israel (the Mosul-Haifa pipeline) and the attempt to revive the scheme in the aftermath of the 2003 war in Iraq. Finally, the article examines the short-lived experience in exporting Iranian oil to Israel under the Shah and the current status of the Trans-Israel pipeline. The study suggests that a regional energy-cooperation would benefit all parties and international energy markets. However, such cooperation is unlikely in the near future. Key Words: Israel; Iraq; Iran; Syria; Egypt; Palestine Authority; Persian Gulf; Energy Policy; Security Policy; Oil; Natural Gas; Trans-Israel Pipeline (Tipline); Mosul-Haifa Pipeline.

Australia's role in Iraq is examined in the light of the effect of neo-liberalism on the Howard Government's motivation.

The U.S. case against Iran is based on Iran's deceptions regarding nuclear weapons development. This case is buttressed by assertions that a state so petroleum-rich cannot need nuclear power to preserve exports, as Iran claims. The U.S. infers, therefore, that Iran's entire nuclear technology program must pertain to weapons development. However, some industry analysts project an Irani oil export decline [e.g., Clark JR (2005) Oil Gas J 103(18):34-39]. If such a decline is occurring, Iran's claim to need nuclear power could be genuine. Because Iran's government relies on monopoly proceeds from oil exports for most revenue, it could become politically vulnerable if exports decline. Here, we survey the political economy of Irani petroleum for evidence of this decline. We define Iran's export decline rate (edr) as its summed rates of depletion and domestic demand growth, which we find equals 10-12%. We estimate marginal cost per barrel for additions to Irani production capacity, from which we derive the 'standstill' investment required to offset edr. We then compare the standstill investment to actual investment, which has been inadequate to offset edr. Even if a relatively optimistic schedule of future capacity addition is met, the ratio of 2011 to 2006 exports will be only 0.40-0.52. A more probable scenario is that, absent some change in Irani policy, this ratio will be 0.33-0.46 with exports declining to zero by 2014-2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment, and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlie Iran's problem, which has no relation to 'peak oil.' market power | Middle East | oil | sanctions

A senior Japanese specialist on Russia's economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors calculates that country's Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Comparative Disadvantage (RCD), and Trade Specialization Index (TSI) on the basis of foreign trade data compiled by Russia's Federal Customs Service. The focus is on changes in comparative advantage of Russia's major export and import commodities over the 1994-2005 period. The results of the analyses make it possible to test the assertion that the increasing competitiveness of oil and gas exports (and secondarily those of armaments, selected base metals, roundwood, and fertilizers) must compensate for declining competitiveness in (and increasing imports of) meat, plastics, and automobile production and stagnation in the machinery sectors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F02, F14, 011.4 figures, 8 tables, 11 references. Key words: Russia, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Revealed Comparative Disadvantage, Trade Specialization Index, Russian exports, Russian imports, Russia's competitiveness, Russian oil.

American Zionist was involved in the future of the Middle East and attempted to influence events in Palestine in relation to the oil issue in the 1940s. The mounting importance of oil caused the United States to be increasingly involved in the Middle East and the American Zionist establishment viewed the whole issue of oil as tremendously important in determining the Middle East reality after the Second World War.

This paper considers whether Africa can absorb a doubling of aid. If oil revenues provide a 'natural experiment' the results are disappointing: far from being transformational, they have been markedly less successful than aid. One implication is that the delivery modalities of aid, though heavily criticized, have substantially added value: the paper discusses which modalities may have been most useful. Unfortunately, aid appears to be subject to diminishing returns, so that doubling aid through conventional modalities would not double its impact. The paper concludes by considering innovations in aid modalities, which might offset diminishing returns. Key words--aid, conditionality, Africa