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Abstract. This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.

Abstract: Aim: Theory predicts fish community biomass to decline with increasing temperature due to higher metabolic losses resulting in less efficient energy transfer in warm‐water food webs. However, whether these metabolic predictions explain observed macroecological patterns in fish community biomass is virtually unknown. Here, we test these predictions by examining the variation in demersal fish biomass across productive shelf regions. Location: Twenty one continental shelf regions in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific. Time Period: 1980–2015. Major Taxa Studied: Marine teleost fish and elasmobranchs. Methods: We compiled high‐resolution bottom trawl survey data of fish biomass containing 166,000 unique tows and corrected biomass for differences in sampling area and trawl gear catchability. We examined whether relationships between net primary production and demersal fish community biomass are mediated by temperature, food‐web structure and the level of fishing exploitation, as well as the choice of spatial scale of the analysis. Subsequently, we examined if temperature explains regional changes in fish biomass over time under recent warming. Results: We find that biomass per km2 varies 40‐fold across regions and is highest in cold waters and areas with low fishing exploitation. We find no evidence that temperature change has impacted biomass within marine regions over the time period considered. The biomass variation is best explained by an elementary trophodynamic model that accounts for temperature‐dependent trophic efficiency. Main Conclusions: Our study supports the hypothesis that temperature is a main driver of large‐scale cross‐regional variation in fish community biomass. The cross‐regional pattern suggests that long‐term impacts of warming will be negative on biomass. These results provide an empirical basis for predicting future changes in fish community biomass and its associated services for human wellbeing that is food provisioning, under global climate change.

Abstract. The daily vertical migrations of fish and other metazoans actively transport organic carbon from the ocean surface to depth, contributing to the biological carbon pump. We use an oxygen-constrained, game-theoretic food-web model to simulate diel vertical migrations and estimate near-global (global ocean minus coastal areas and high latitudes) carbon fluxes and sequestration by fish and zooplankton due to respiration, fecal pellets, and deadfalls. Our model provides estimates of the carbon export and sequestration potential for a range of pelagic functional groups, despite uncertain biomass estimates of some functional groups.While the export production of metazoans and fish is modest (∼20 % of global total), we estimate that their contribution to carbon sequestered by the biological pump (∼800 PgC) is conservatively more than 50 % of the estimated global total (∼1300 PgC) and that they have a significantly longer sequestration timescale (∼250 years) than previously reported for other components of the biological pump. Fish and multicellular zooplankton contribute about equally to this sequestered carbon pool. This essential ecosystem service could be at risk from both unregulated fishing on the high seas and ocean deoxygenation due to climate change.

Abstract: Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Transfer efficiency is the proportion of energy passed between nodes in food webs. It is an emergent, unitless property that is difficult to measure, and responds dynamically to environmental and ecosystem changes. Because the consequences of changes in transfer efficiency compound through ecosystems, slight variations can have large effects on food availability for top predators. Here, we review the processes controlling transfer efficiency, approaches to estimate it, and known variations across ocean biomes. Both process-level analysis and observed macroscale variations suggest that ecosystem-scale transfer efficiency is highly variable, impacted by fishing, and will decline with climate change. It is important that we more fully resolve the processes controlling transfer efficiency in models to effectively anticipate changes in marine ecosystems and fisheries resources.

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Global climate change is expected to impact ocean ecosystems through increases in temperature, decreases in pH and oxygen, increased stratification, with subsequent declines in primary productivity. These impacts propagate through the food chain leading to amplified effects on secondary producers and higher trophic levels. Similarly, climate change may disproportionately affect different species, with impacts depending on their ecological niche. To investigate how global environmental change will alter fish assemblages and productivity, we used a spatially explicit mechanistic model of the three main fish functional types reflected in fisheries catches (FEISTY) coupled to an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to make projections out to 2100. We additionally explored the sensitivity of projections to uncertainties in widely used metabolic allometries and their temperature dependence. When integrated globally, the biomass and production of all types of fish decreased under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) compared to mean contemporary conditions. Projections also revealed strong increases in the ratio of pelagic zooplankton production to benthic production, a dominant driver of the abundance of large pelagic fish vs. demersal fish under historical conditions. Increases in this ratio led to a “pelagification” of ecosystems exemplified by shifts from benthic-based food webs toward pelagic-based ones. The resulting pelagic systems, however, were dominated by forage fish, as large pelagic fish suffered from increasing metabolic demands in a warming ocean and from declines in zooplankton productivity that were amplified at higher trophic levels. Patterns of relative change between functional types were robust to uncertainty in metabolic allometries and temperature dependence, though projections of the large pelagic fish had the greatest uncertainty. The same accumulation of trophic impacts that underlies the amplification of productivity trends at higher trophic levels propagates to the projection spread, creating an acutely uncertain future for the ocean’s largest predatory fish.

Climate change is increasingly affecting the world's ocean ecosystems, necessitating urgent guidance on adaptation strategies to limit or prevent catastrophic impacts. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) is a network and framework that provides standardised ensemble projections of the impacts of climate change and fisheries on ocean life and the benefits that it provides to people. Since its official launch in 2013 as a small, self‐organized project within the larger Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, the FishMIP community has grown substantially and contributed to key international policy processes, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report, and the Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Global Biodiversity Assessment. While not without challenges, particularly around comparing heterogeneous ecosystem models, integrating fisheries scenarios, and standardising regional‐scale ecosystem models, FishMIP outputs are now being used across a variety of applications (e.g., climate change targets, fisheries management, marine conservation, Sustainable Development Goals). Over the next decade, FishMIP will focus on improving ecosystem model ensembles to provide more robust and policy‐relevant projections for different regions of the world under multiple climate and societal change scenarios, and continue to be open to a broad spectrum of marine ecosystem models and modelers. FishMIP also intends to enhance leadership diversity and capacity‐building to improve representation of early‐ and mid‐career researchers from under‐represented countries and ocean regions. As we look ahead, FishMIP aims to continue enhancing our understanding of how marine life and its contributions to people may change over the coming century at both global and regional scales. Plain Language Summary: The world's oceans are experiencing significant changes due to climate impacts, which are affecting marine ecosystems and fisheries. To address these challenges, the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was launched in 2013. FishMIP brings together scientists to develop standardised projections of how climate change and fishing activities will impact ocean life and the benefits people get from fisheries. Despite some difficulties in comparing different ecosystem models and integrating fisheries scenarios, FishMIP's outputs are now informing various policy areas such as setting climate targets, managing fisheries, food security, and conserving marine environments. Over the next 10 years, FishMIP plans to improve its model ensembles to provide more reliable projections for different regions under various climate and societal change scenarios. Additionally, FishMIP aims to increase diversity in leadership and capacity‐building to involve more researchers from under‐represented countries and regions. Looking forward, FishMIP will continue to foster a global community of ecosystem and climate modelers, to enhance our understanding of how marine ecosystems and their benefits to people might change in the future, both globally and locally. Key Points: There is an urgent need for policy to develop strategies to adapt to the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and their servicesThe Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project has contributed understanding of climate impacts on marine ecosystemsThe next 10 years will see the improved FishMIP ensemble model pushing the boundaries of the field and increasing policy‐relevant outputs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Emerging fishing activity due to melting ice and poleward species distribution shifts in the rapidly‐warming Arctic Ocean challenges transboundary management and requires proactive governance. A 2021 moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic high seas provides a 16‐year runway for improved scientific understanding. Given substantial knowledge gaps, characterizing areas of highest uncertainty is a key first step. Marine ecosystem model ensembles that project future fish distributions could inform management of future Arctic fisheries, but Arctic‐specific variation has not yet been examined for global ensembles. We use the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Intercomparison Project ensemble driven by two Earth System Models (ESMs) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) to illustrate the current state of and uncertainty among biomass projections for the Arctic Ocean over the duration of the moratorium. The models generally project biomass increases in more northern Arctic ecosystems and decreases in southern ecosystems, but wide intra‐model variation exceeds projection means in most cases. The two ESMs show opposite trends for the main environmental drivers. Therefore, these projections are currently insufficient to inform policy actions. Investment in sustained monitoring and improving modeling capacity, especially for sea ice dynamics, is urgently needed. Concurrently, it will be necessary to develop frameworks for making precautionary decisions under continued uncertainty. We conclude that researchers should be transparent about uncertainty, presenting these model projections not as a source of scientific "answers," but as bounding for plausible, policy‐relevant questions to assess trade‐offs and mitigate risks. Plain Language Summary: As the Arctic Ocean gets warmer, melting ice is opening up new opportunities for fishing. However, we don't know where fish will go and how they can be managed sustainably. An important first step is to figure out which unknowns we can solve quickly with more research, and what is so uncertain that we will have to make decisions without ideal information. In this paper, we looked at uncertainty in a set of global models that predict how fish populations might shift in the next 10–25 years. Overall, these models show that fish populations might increase in the northern parts of the Arctic while decreasing in the south. But the models make very different predictions, and some disagree on whether fish populations will increase or decrease in certain areas. A major source of uncertainty is how sea ice will change, and how ocean life will respond. Therefore, this is a priority area to invest in long‐term research and better models. Overall, these models are too uncertain to rely on for specific management decisions about Arctic fishing. Instead, scientists and decision makers can use them to shape more informed discussions about potential trade‐offs and risks of future fishing in the Arctic. Key Points: Variation and disagreement in marine ecosystem model projections are too high to be informative for near‐term Arctic fisheries managementInsufficient inclusion and knowledge of sea ice cover and sea ice productivity dynamics are major drivers of uncertaintyResearchers should be transparent about uncertainty and risk; present model projections as the basis for hypotheses and scenario planning [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Adult and early life stage distributions of the commercially important demersal fish Walleye Pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) have varied in relation to the warm and cold environmental conditions on the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) shelf. Previous modelling studies indicate that transport alone does not account for the disparate juvenile distributions in warm and cold years, but that spawning locations are important. Our objective was to determine the potential connectivity of EBS pollock spawning areas with juvenile nursery areas between warm and cold years from an 18-year hindcast (1995–2012). We calculated the connectivity between larval sources and juvenile positions that were produced by a coupled biological-physical individual-based model that simulated transport, growth, and vertical behavior of pollock from the egg until the juvenile stage. Three connectivity patterns were seen in most simulations: along-isobaths to the northwest, self-retention, and transport around the Pribilof Islands. The major differences in connectivity between warm and cold years, more northwards in warm years and more off-shelf in cold years, mimicked wind-driven flow characteristics of those years that were related to winter mean zonal position of the Aleutian Low. Connectivity relationships were more sensitive to spatial alterations in the spawning areas in cold years, while they were more responsive to spawn timing shifts in warm years. The strongest connectivity to advantageous juvenile habitats originated in the well-known spawning areas, but also in a less well-studied region on the Outer Shelf. This northern Outer Shelf region emerged as a very large sink of pollock reaching the juvenile transition from all spawning sources, suggesting more thorough sampling across multiple trophic levels of this potentially important juvenile pollock nursery is needed.

The vertical flux of particles in the ocean drives the movement of organic carbon to the deep ocean. We have been studying the distribution and flux of these particles using the SOLOPC, a profiling Lagrangian (SOLO) float with a Laser Optical Particle Counter (LOPC). We have been able to distinguish between aggregate-like and zooplankton-like particles with diameters >2 mm but needed a way to separate the smaller particles into aggregates and zooplankton. Observations included a lognormal-shaped fraction in the normalized volume distribution similar to that observed in results for simulations of particles in the euphotic zone. By fitting a lognormal distribution to the volume spectrum of particles with diameters ≤2 mm, we have been successful at making a separation of marine snow material from other, presumably living, particles. The particle volumes derived using the separations are positively correlated with fluorescence, particulate organic carbon, and the volume of larger particles classified as aggregate-like, which supports the conclusion that these particles are truly aggregates, in some cases derived from phytoplankton. The residual volumes (total less the above fit) are highly correlated with the volumes of large, zooplankton-like particles. Downward velocities of the aggregate fraction calculated from time series of particle profiles are consistent with previous estimates of particle settling rates (20-70 m d -1). We now have a tool to estimate aggregate distributions, properties, and vertical fluxes in the euphotic zone, including when and where they change. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.