1. Multivariable prediction models of caries increment : a systematic review and critical appraisal
- Author
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Havsed, K., Hänsel Petersson, G., Isberg, P. -E, Pigg, M., Svensäter, G., Rohlin, M., Havsed, K., Hänsel Petersson, G., Isberg, P. -E, Pigg, M., Svensäter, G., and Rohlin, M.
- Abstract
Background: Multivariable prediction models are used in oral health care to identify individuals with an increased likelihood of caries increment. The outcomes of the models should help to manage individualized interventions and to determine the periodicity of service. The objective was to review and critically appraise studies of multivariable prediction models of caries increment. Methods: Longitudinal studies that developed or validated prediction models of caries and expressed caries increment as a function of at least three predictors were included. PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science supplemented with reference lists of included studies were searched. Two reviewers independently extracted data using CHARMS (Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies) and assessed risk of bias and concern regarding applicability using PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASessment Tool). Predictors were analysed and model performance was recalculated as estimated positive (LR +) and negative likelihood ratios (LR −) based on sensitivity and specificity presented in the studies included. Results: Among the 765 reports identified, 21 studies providing 66 prediction models fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Over 150 candidate predictors were considered, and 31 predictors remained in studies of final developmental models: caries experience, mutans streptococci in saliva, fluoride supplements, and visible dental plaque being the most common predictors. Predictive performances varied, providing LR + and LR − ranges of 0.78–10.3 and 0.0–1.1, respectively. Only four models of coronal caries and one root caries model scored LR + values of at least 5. All studies were assessed as having high risk of bias, generally due to insufficient number of outcomes in relation to candidate predictors and considerable uncertainty regarding predictor thresholds and measurements. Concern regarding applicability was low overall. Conclusions: T
- Published
- 2023
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