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Ellen Tufvesson,1 Finn Radner,1 Georgia Papapostolou,1 Linnea Jarenbäck,1 Saga Jönsson,1 Ulf Nihlén,1 Jaro Ankerst,1 Alf Tunsäter,1 Stefan Peterson,2 Leif Bjermer,1 Göran Eriksson1 1Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, Lund University, Skane University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; 2Regional Cancer Centre South, Region Skane, Lund, SwedenCorrespondence: Ellen TufvessonDepartment of Clinical Sciences Lund, Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, Lund University, Skane University Hospital, Lund 22185, SwedenTel +46 73 640 19 16Email ellen.tufvesson@med.lu.sePurpose: For exercise testing of COPD patients, a standard endurance test (ET) with constant workload is recommended. The test suffers from large inter-individual variability and need for large sample sizes in order to evaluate treatment effects.Methods: A new protocol for ET in COPD was designed. In contrast to the standard ET, the new ET involved an increasing workload in order to reduce the standard deviation of endurance time. Two new ETs were compared with the standard ET. In Study A, the new ET started at 75% of the patient’s maximum workload (WMAX) and increased stepwise with 3%/2 min until exhaustion. Study B started at 70% of WMAX and increased linearly with 1%/min.Results: In Study A, that included 15 patients, the standard deviation and range for endurance time and work capacity were narrower for the new versus the standard ET. However, the higher mean workload at end and the low mean work capacity relative to the standard ET indicated that the stepwise increase was too aggressive. In Study B, that included 18 patients, with a modified protocol, the averages for endurance time, workload at end and work capacity were similar for new and standard ET, while the standard deviations and ranges for endurance time and work capacity were kept more narrow in the new ET. The variances for endurance time were not equal between the standard ET and the two new ETs (p< 0.05 for both according to Levene’s test).Conclusion: The new ET reduced the number of patients with extreme endurance times (short and long) compared to the standard test. The new test showed a significant lower variance for endurance time, which potentially can lead to fewer patients needed in comparative studies. The overall best results were observed with a low linear increase during endurance.Keywords: COPD, exercise testing, constant endurance test, endurance time

Tufvesson E, Radner F, Papapostolou G, et al. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2020;15:3003–3012. Page 3004, left column, line 2 from the bottom, the sentence “The study also included a new WMAX test where the participants started biking with a 3-min warm-up at 40% of their predicted WMAX, followed by an instant increase to 70% and then a linear increase in workload to achieve the predicted WMAX within 8 min” should read “The study also included a new WMAX test where the participants started biking with a 3-min warm-up at 40% of their predicted WMAX, followed by a linear increase in workload to achieve the predicted WMAX within 8 min”. Page 3005, left column, line 4 from the bottom, the sentence “The new maximum test included an initial phase of pedalling for 3 min at 40% (Study A) or 30% (Study B) of the predicted WMAX, followed by an instant increase to 75% (Study A) or 70% (Study B), followed by a stepwise (Study A) or linear (Study B) increase in workload until exhaustion” should read “The new maximum test included an initial phase of pedalling for 3 min at 40% (Study A) or 30% (Study B) of the predicted WMAX, followed by a linear increase in workload to achieve the predicted WMAX within 8 min”. The authors apologize for these errors. Read the original article

Peter M Calverley,1 Dirkje S Postma,2 Antonio R Anzueto,3,4 Barry J Make,5 Göran Eriksson,6 Stefan Peterson,7 Christine R Jenkins8 1Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK; 2Department of Pulmonary Medicine and Tuberculosis, Gronigen Research Institute for Asthma and COPD, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands; 3Division of Pulmonary Diseases and Critical Care Medicine, University of Texas Health Sciences Center, School of Medicine, University of Texas, 4South Texas Veterans Health Care System, San Antonio, TX, 5Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado, Denver, CO, USA; 6Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, 7StatMind AB, Lund, Sweden; 8George Institute for Global Health, Concord Clincal School, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia Background: Early treatment response markers, for example, improvement in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score, may help clinicians to better manage patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We investigated the prevalence of clinically important improvements in FEV1 and SGRQ scores after 2-month budesonide/formoterol or formoterol treatment and whether such improvements predict subsequent improvements and exacerbation rates.Methods: This post hoc analysis is based on data from three double-blind, randomized studies in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD receiving twice-daily budesonide/formoterol or formoterol alone for 6 or 12 months. Prebronchodilator FEV1 and SGRQ total score were measured before treatment and at 2 and 12 months; COPD exacerbation rates were measured during months 2–12. Responders were defined by ≥100 mL improvement in prebronchodilator FEV1 and ≥4-point decrease in SGRQ total score.Results: Overall, 2,331 and 1,799 patients were included in the 0–2- and 0–12-month responder analyses, respectively, and 2,360 patients in the 2–12-month exacerbation rate analysis. At 2 months, 35.1% of patients were FEV1 responders and 44.3% were SGRQ responders. The probability of response was significantly greater with budesonide/formoterol than with formoterol or placebo for both parameters. Two-month responders had a greater chance of 12-month response than 2-month nonresponders for both FEV1 (odds ratio, 5.57; 95% confidence interval, 4.14–7.50) and SGRQ (odds ratio, 3.87; 95% confidence interval, 2.83–5.31). Two-month response in FEV1 (P

Göran Eriksson,1,* Linnea Jarenbäck,1,* Stefan Peterson,2 Jaro Ankerst,1 Leif Bjermer,1 Ellen Tufvesson11Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, 2Regional Cancer Center South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden*These authors contributed equally to this workPurpose: COPD is a progressive disease, which can take different routes, leading to great heterogeneity. The aim of the post-hoc analysis reported here was to perform continuous analyses of advanced lung function measurements, using linear and nonlinear regressions.Patients and methods: Fifty-one COPD patients with mild to very severe disease (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] Stages I–IV) and 41 healthy smokers were investigated post-bronchodilation by flow-volume spirometry, body plethysmography, diffusion capacity testing, and impulse oscillometry. The relationship between COPD severity, based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), and different lung function parameters was analyzed by flexible nonparametric method, linear regression, and segmented linear regression with break-points.Results: Most lung function parameters were nonlinear in relation to spirometric severity. Parameters related to volume (residual volume, functional residual capacity, total lung capacity, diffusion capacity [diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide], diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide/alveolar volume) and reactance (reactance area and reactance at 5Hz) were segmented with break-points at 60%–70% of FEV1. FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) and resonance frequency had break-points around 80% of FEV1, while many resistance parameters had break-points below 40%. The slopes in percent predicted differed; resistance at 5 Hz minus resistance at 20 Hz had a linear slope change of -5.3 per unit FEV1, while residual volume had no slope change above and -3.3 change per unit FEV1 below its break-point of 61%.Conclusion: Continuous analyses of different lung function parameters over the spirometric COPD severity range gave valuable information additional to categorical analyses. Parameters related to volume, diffusion capacity, and reactance showed break-points around 65% of FEV1, indicating that air trapping starts to dominate in moderate COPD (FEV1 =50%–80%). This may have an impact on the patient’s management plan and selection of patients and/or outcomes in clinical research.Keywords: spirometry, severity, body plethysmography, single-breath carbon-monoxide diffusion test, impulse oscillometry, break-point

Barry J Make,1 Göran Eriksson,2 Peter M Calverley,3 Christine R Jenkins,4 Dirkje S Postma,5 Stefan Peterson,6 Ollie Östlund,7 Antonio Anzueto8 1Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; 3Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK; 4George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney and Concord Clinical School, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Department of Pulmonology, University of Groningen and GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; 6StatMind AB, Lund, Sweden; 7Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; 8Department of Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans Healthcare System, San Antonio, TX, USA Background: There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods: Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory properties of predictive variables. Results: The best predictors of an exacerbation in the next 6 months were more COPD maintenance medications prior to the trial, higher mean daily reliever use, more exacerbations during the previous year, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity ratio, and female sex. Using these risk variables, we developed a score to predict short-term (6-month) risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX). Budesonide/formoterol reduced future exacerbation risk more than formoterol or as-needed short-acting ß2-agonist (salbutamol). Conclusion: SCOPEX incorporates easily identifiable patient characteristics and can be readily applied in clinical practice to target therapy to reduce COPD exacerbations in patients at the highest risk. Keywords: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, exacerbation, model, predictor, inhaled corticosteroids, bronchodilators

ObjectiveTo compare the relative efficacy of current and investigational biologic and oral small molecule (OSM) treatments for active ankylosing spondylitis (AS).MethodsA systematic literature review was conducted to identify all phase 2/3 randomized trials of interest in patients with AS. Outcomes assessed were ≥ 20% improvement in the Assessment of Spondyloarthritis International Society Criteria (ASAS20) and change from baseline in Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI) and C-reactive protein (CRP) at weeks 12-16. Bayesian network meta-analyses were conducted for outcomes using a random effects model. Baseline-risk adjustment was also conducted to account for differences in placebo response across studies. Surface Under the Cumulative Ranking curve (SUCRA) values are reported, reflecting the relative probability that intervention was the best of all interventions.ResultsThe investigational agent tofacitinib 5 mg was the top-ranked treatment (SUCRA, 93%) for ASAS20 response, followed by intravenous (IV) golimumab 2 mg/kg (90%). Golimumab IV 2 mg/kg and infliximab 5 mg/kg were the top two ranked treatments for change from baseline in BASFI (golimumab IV, 81%; infliximab, 80%) and change from baseline in CRP (infliximab, 90%; golimumab IV, 82%).ConclusionsTwo approved therapies (golimumab IV, infliximab) and one investigational product ranked highest for efficacy in AS. Key Points • Although golimumab IV, infliximab, and tofacitinib ranked highest for efficacy in AS, differences in efficacy between approved and investigational therapies were not statistically significant.

INTRODUCTION: Sea-level rise is a consequence of climate change that can impact the ecological and physiological changes of coastal, ground-dwelling species. Sea-level rise has a potential to inundate birds, rodents, spiders, and insects that live on the ground in coastal areas. Yet, there is still much to be learned concerning the specifics of these impacts. The red imported fire ant Solenopsis invicta (Buren) excavates soil for its home and is capable of surviving flooding. Because of their ground-dwelling life history and rapid reproduction, fire ants make an ideal model for discovery and prediction of changes that may be due to sea-level rise. There are up to 500,000 individuals in a colony, and these invasive ants naturally have a painful sting. However, observations suggest that colonies of fire ants that dwell in tidally-influenced areas are more aggressive with more frequent stings and more venom injected per sting (behavioral and physiological changes) than those located inland. This may be an adaption to sea-level rise. Therefore, the objective of this study is to elucidate differences in inland and coastal defensiveness via micro-dissection and comparison of head width, head length, stinger length, and venom sac volume. But first because fire ants ability to raft on brackish tidal water is unknown, it had to be determined if fire ants could indeed raft in brackish water and examine the behavior differences between those flooded with freshwater vs. saltwater. METHODS: To test the coastal-aggression hypothesis, inland colonies and coastal colonies, which experience relatively greater amounts of flooding, specifically regular tidal and windblown water and oscillations (i.e. El Nińo Southern Oscillation) from the Gulf of Mexico, were collected. To mimic sea-level rise, the colonies were flooded in salinities that correspond to both their collection site and conditions found in a variety of locales and situations (such as storm surge from a tropical storm). Individual ants were immediately taken from each colony for dissection before flooding, 1-hour into flooding, and 24-hours into flooding. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Fire ants use their venom to defend themselves and to communicate alarm or aggression. Dissections and measurement of heads, venom sacs, and stingers revealed both coastal and inland colonies experience an increase in venom sac volume after 24 hours; in fact coastal colonies increased their venom volume by 75% after 24 h of flooding Whether this venom sac enlargement is due to diffusion of water or venom sac production is unknown. These ground-dwelling ants exhibit physiological and behavioral adaptations to ongoing sea-level rise possibly indicating that they are responding to increased flooding. Fire ants will raft on high-salinity water; and sea-level rise may cause stings by flooded ants to be more severe because of increased venom volume.

The origin of micrometeorites (MMs) from asteroids and comets is well-established, but the relative contribution from these two classes remains poorly resolved. Likewise, determining the precise origin of individual MMs is an open challenge. Here, cosmic-ray exposure ages are used to resolve the spatial origins of 12 MMs collected from urban areas and Antarctica. Their 26Al and 10Be concentration, produced during cosmic-ray irradiation in space, were measured by accelerator mass spectrometry. These data are compared to results from a model simulating the transport and irradiation of the MM precursors in space. This model, for the first time, considers a variety of orbits, precursor particle sizes, compositions and densities and incorporates non-isotropic solar and galactic cosmic-ray flux profiles, depth-dependent production rates, as well as spherical evaporation during atmospheric entry. While the origin for six MMs remains ambiguous, two MMs show a preferential tendency towards an origin in the Inner Solar System (Near Earth Objects to the Asteroid Belt) and four towards an origin in the Outer Solar System (Jupiter Family Comets to the Kuiper Belt). These findings challenge the notion that dust originating from the Outer Solar System is unlikely to survive long-term transport and delivery to the terrestrial planets. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dust in the Solar System and beyond'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stable isotope analysis of slow-growing, metabolically inert tissues is a common method for investigating foraging ecology in migratory animals, as direct observations of feeding are often not possible. Using tissue growth dynamics to interpret foraging timelines can maximize the utility of foraging data; however, applying inappropriate growth models is problematic, and high-resolution growth measurements are seldom made. We used photogrammetry to repeatedly measure the length of whiskers in 93 follicles over 670 d in a trained, captive northern elephant seal Mirounga angustirostris. We developed and optimized a follicle-specific growth model to describe the 18 000 whisker length measurements. Whiskers from the captive seal exhibited asymptotic growth that was described by the von Bertalanffy growth function. Applying the growth model to serially sampled whiskers from 4 free-ranging adult female northern elephant seals resulted in alignment of peaks in °15N along the length of whiskers with the breeding haul-out period, when seals are not feeding. Our study provides a high-resolution whisker growth model and is the first to use whisker growth dynamics to improve temporal interpretation of isotopic ratios.