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One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up-slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high-elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower-elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up-slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower-elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up-slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower-elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.

While we know climate change will impact individuals, populations, and communities, we lack a cross-scale synthesis for understanding global variation in climate change impacts and predicting their ecological effects. Studies of latitudinal variation in individuals' thermal responses have developed primarily in isolation from studies of natural populations' warming responses. Further, it is unclear whether latitudinal variation in temperature-dependent population responses will manifest into latitudinal patterns in community stability. Integrating across scales, we discuss the key drivers of latitudinal variation in climate change effects, with the goal of identifying key pieces of information necessary to predict warming effects in natural communities. We propose two experimental approaches synthesizing latitudinal variability in climate change impacts across scales of biological organization. Climate change will affect individuals, populations, and communities, but it is unclear whether these cross-scale effects will be larger in tropical versus temperate areas. Latitudinal variation in the shape and position of thermal performance curves, while better understood than variation in population and community responses, may not scale to population responses to warming, nor is it clear how such effects translate into community stability. Evidence for latitudinal variation in temperature effects on individual performance and population growth rate is mixed, and there is not enough data to identify latitudinal patterns in community responses to warming. Effects of warming on populations and communities will be modulated by latitudinal variation in other factors, such as natural selection, seasonal warming rates, species richness, and the impact of species interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Demographic studies measure drivers of plant fecundity including seed production and survival, but few address both abiotic and biotic drivers of germination such as variation in climate among sites, population density, maternal plants, seed type and fungal pathogen abundance.We examined germination and microbial communities of seeds of Danthonia californica, which are either chasmogamous (external, wind‐pollinated) or cleistogamous (internal, self‐fertilized) and Festuca roemeri, which are solely chasmogamous. Seed populations were sourced across environmental gradients. We tested germination and used high‐throughput sequencing to characterize seed fungal community structure.For F. roemeri, maternal plants significantly influenced germination as did climate and pathogens; germination increased from wetter, cooler sites. For D. californica, the main drivers of germination were maternal plant, seed type and pathogens; on average, more chasmogamous seeds germinated. Fungal communities depended largely on seed type, with fewer fungi associated with cleistogamous seeds, but the communities also depended on site factors such as vapor pressure deficit, plant density and whether the seeds had germinated.Putative pathogens that were negatively correlated with germination were more abundant for both D. californica and F. roemeri chasmogamous seeds than D. californica cleistogamous seeds. In D. californica, cleistogamous and chasmogamous seeds contain vastly different fungal communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting species' range shifts under future climate is a central goal of conservation ecology. Studying populations within and beyond multiple species' current ranges can help identify whether demographic responses to climate change exhibit directionality, indicative of range shifts, and whether responses are uniform across a suite of species.We quantified the demographic responses of six native perennial prairie species planted within and, for two species, beyond their northern range limits to a 3‐year experimental manipulation of temperature and precipitation at three sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We estimated population growth rates (λ) using integral projection models and tested for opposing responses to climate in different demographic vital rates (demographic compensation).Where species successfully established reproductive populations, warming negatively affected λ at sites within species' current ranges. Contrarily, warming and drought positively affected λ for the two species planted beyond their northern range limits. Most species failed to establish a reproductive population at one or more sites within their current ranges, due to extremely low germination and seedling survival. We found little evidence of demographic compensation buffering populations to the climate treatments.Synthesis. These results support predictions across a suite of species that ranges will need to shift with climate change as populations within current ranges become increasingly vulnerable to decline. Species capable of dispersing beyond their leading edges may be more likely to persist, as our evidence suggests that projected changes in climate may benefit such populations. If species are unable to disperse to new habitat on their own, assisted migration may need to be considered to prevent the widespread loss of vulnerable species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structured population models are among the most widely used tools in ecology and evolution. Integral projection models (IPMs) use continuous representations of how survival, reproduction and growth change as functions of state variables such as size, requiring fewer parameters to be estimated than projection matrix models (PPMs). Yet, almost all published IPMs make an important assumption that size‐dependent growth transitions are or can be transformed to be normally distributed. In fact, many organisms exhibit highly skewed size transitions. Small individuals can grow more than they can shrink, and large individuals may often shrink more dramatically than they can grow. Yet, the implications of such skew for inference from IPMs has not been explored, nor have general methods been developed to incorporate skewed size transitions into IPMs, or deal with other aspects of real growth rates, including bounds on possible growth or shrinkage.Here, we develop a flexible approach to modelling skewed growth data using a modified beta regression model. We propose that sizes first be converted to a (0,1) interval by estimating size‐dependent minimum and maximum sizes through quantile regression. Transformed data can then be modelled using beta regression with widely available statistical tools. We demonstrate the utility of this approach using demographic data for a long‐lived plant, gorgonians and an epiphytic lichen. Specifically, we compare inferences of population parameters from discrete PPMs to those from IPMs that either assume normality or incorporate skew using beta regression or, alternatively, a skewed normal model.The beta and skewed normal distributions accurately capture the mean, variance and skew of real growth distributions. Incorporating skewed growth into IPMs decreases population growth and estimated life span relative to IPMs that assume normally distributed growth, and more closely approximate the parameters of PPMs that do not assume a particular growth distribution. A bounded distribution, such as the beta, also avoids the eviction problem caused by predicting some growth outside the modelled size range.Incorporating biologically relevant skew in growth data has important consequences for inference from IPMs. The approaches we outline here are flexible and easy to implement with existing statistical tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade‐off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species‐level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA. Although many populations are genetically adapted to their local climate, this has been ignored by most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change. Local climate adaptation can profoundly alter the responses of local populations and entire species to climate change, by interacting with the velocity of climate change, barriers to dispersal, and movement beyond historical range edges. We critically review studies that have incorporated local adaptation into species' distribution forecasts, evaluate strengths and weaknesses of current approaches, and identify the most promising paths forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Many predictions of how climate change will impact biodiversity have focused on range shifts using species‐wide climate tolerances, an approach that ignores the demographic mechanisms that enable species to attain broad geographic distributions. But these mechanisms matter, as responses to climate change could fundamentally differ depending on the contributions of life‐history plasticity vs. local adaptation to species‐wide climate tolerances. In particular, if local adaptation to climate is strong, populations across a species’ range—not only those at the trailing range edge—could decline sharply with global climate change. Indeed, faster rates of climate change in many high latitude regions could combine with local adaptation to generate sharper declines well away from trailing edges. Combining 15 years of demographic data from field populations across North America with growth chamber warming experiments, we show that growth and survival in a widespread tundra plant show compensatory responses to warming throughout the species’ latitudinal range, buffering overall performance across a range of temperatures. However, populations also differ in their temperature responses, consistent with adaptation to local climate, especially growing season temperature. In particular, warming begins to negatively impact plant growth at cooler temperatures for plants from colder, northern populations than for those from warmer, southern populations, both in the field and in growth chambers. Furthermore, the individuals and maternal families with the fastest growth also have the lowest water use efficiency at all temperatures, suggesting that a trade‐off between growth and water use efficiency could further constrain responses to forecasted warming and drying. Taken together, these results suggest that populations throughout species’ ranges could be at risk of decline with continued climate change, and that the focus on trailing edge populations risks overlooking the largest potential impacts of climate change on species’ abundance and distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fitness trade-offs between environments are central to the evolution of biodiversity. Although transplant studies often document fitness trade-offs consistent with local adaptation (LA), many have also found an advantage of foreign genotypes (foreign advantage (FA)). Understanding the mechanisms driving the magnitude and distribution of fitness variation requires comparative approaches that test the ecological scales at which these different patterns emerge., We used a common garden transplant experiment to compare the relative fitnesses of native vs foreign genotypes at three nested ecological scales within Mimulus guttatus: annual vs perennial life history races, perennial ecotypes across an elevational range, and populations within perennial elevational ecotypes. We integrated fitness across the life-cycle and decomposed LA vs FA into contributions from different fitness components., We found LA, measured as home-site advantage, between annual and perennial races and a trend towards LA among populations within montane habitats. Conversely, we found strong FA of low-elevation perennials in a montane environment., LA between life history races reflects the fitness advantages of adult survival and vegetative growth in a mesic environment. Within the perennial race, recent climate conditions or nonselective processes, such as dispersal limitation or mutational load, could explain FA of low-elevation perennials in a montane environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in flowering phenology resulting from climate change could impact individual plant fitness and population viability. Flowering phenology can mediate plant reproductive success in several ways, including pollinator interactions, flowering synchrony with conspecifics, and timing of suitable abiotic conditions. We explored factors that control phenology and reproductive success for an alpine cushion plant, Silene acaulis, across two years and four sites, totaling 1,123 plants, in Colorado, USA. We investigated relationships between flowering time, flowering synchrony, and reproductive success with local abiotic conditions and pollinator behavior. Mean flowering phenology was strongly correlated with the timing of snowmelt across sites and years. Relative to mean flowering times, earlier flowering plants generally produced more flowers and experienced greater soil moisture during flowering but reduced synchrony with conspecifics. Fruit set tended to increase with greater soil moisture, synchrony during flowering, and earlier flowering times. Pollinator visitation increased with local Silene flower density. Earlier snowmelt and drier conditions later in the season favor earlier flowering, but these effects are partially counteracted by the positive effects of synchrony, perhaps because of changes in pollinator visitation. Overall, while both biotic and abiotic effects influence reproductive success, late-season drought may outweigh the benefits of flowering synchrony to increasingly favor earlier flowering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up-slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower ( Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high-elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower-elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up-slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower-elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up-slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower-elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)