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Introduction For some individuals infection with SARS-CoV-2 leading to COVID-19 can result in a life-threatening multi-system disease. Multiple potential pathophysiological mechanisms for the development of cardiovascular complications have been postulated [1]. Early reports suggested that more than a third of hospitalised patients undergoing TTE had evidence of LV impairment [2]. Purpose To ascertain the incidence of ventricular impairment among critically ill adults with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods Retrospective analysis of transthoracic echocardiograms (TTE) performed on patients admitted to ICU with COVID-19 between 10th March and 10th May 2020. Archived studies were reviewed by accredited professionals. Studies were performed according to a modified British Society of Echocardiography (BSE) Level 1 protocol [3], with the addition of right ventricle (RV) focused apical 4 chamber, as well as apical 2 and 3 chamber views, and without ECG synchronisation as per infection control protocols. In the majority of patients the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was estimated from biplane Simpson's method. The RV function was assessed using the TAPSE in most patients. In the remaining patients the LV or RV function was visually assessed. Results Of 179 patients admitted to ICU, 85 (47.5%) had at least one TTE of diagnostic quality. Studies were performed a median of 7 days after ICU admission (IQR 3–17 days). Baseline and clinical characteristics and key echocardiographic measurements are summarised in table 1. The majority of patients were undergoing mechanical ventilation at the time of the scan (94.1%). One hundred and fifty-nine patients (89%) had elevated Troponin T (≥14ng/L) on the day of the study. LV systolic impairment (LVSD) was present in 5 patients (6.0%). This was known to be chronic in 3 patients (1 with coronary artery disease, 1 with chemotherapy induced cardiomyopathy and 1 with dilated cardiomyopathy of unknown aetiology), whilst pre-morbid cardiac function was unknown in the other 2 patients. No patient had severe LVSD (LVEF ≤35%). RV systolic dysfunction (RVSD) was found in 25 patients (31.3%). Amongst patients receiving mechanical ventilation there was no significant difference in Positive End Expiratory Pressure (PEEP) between patients with and without RVSD (9.4cmH2O vs. 9.8cmH2O, p=0.64), however there was a non-significant trend towards lower PaO2/FiO2 (P/F ratio) amongst patients with RVSD (18.9kPa vs 25.7kPa, p=0.07). Conclusions In contrast to other studies which have reported high frequency of LV impairment amongst hospitalised patients with COVID-19 [3], de novo LVSD was rarely found in this study, occurring in just 2 patients (2.4%), and being severe in neither. RV dilatation and systolic impairment were commonly found. A trend towards lower P/F ratios in patients with RVSD suggests severity of lung injury may be a factor in developing RV impairment. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

The article studies the steering strategies pursued during a major sociotechnical transition in the then state-owned British gas industry. We focus on the ten-year (1967–1977) national project to convert 35 million appliances to run on natural gas instead of manufactured gas. The article : a. addresses the issue of steering in the multi-faceted, complex process of conversion and identifies the context of and challenges faced by the natural gas conversion programme in the 1960s and how actors responded and coordinated action; b. Identifies modes of steering followed by key actors and institutions of the period; c. Identifies essential precursors for this successful steering, including: the recognition of the challenges the industry faced in the pre-transition years; an openness to experimentation, RD and harmonious relations with government. We argue that the steering approach needs to combine an emphasis on planning and institutional and regulatory innovation with aspects of the mundane governance approach. Our analysis shows, with reference to the UK’s low-carbon gas transition, that while rapid, planned transitions are achievable, they may require complex, demanding forms of steering and governance that may prove hard to achieve in today’s socioeconomic and political conditions.

This paper studies the emerging natural gas transitions in Greece from 1966 to 2016. We place the actors and the governing processes in historical perspective, to position the regime actors, their power and their agency in the context of decision making that influenced the transition pathway and its key branching points. We argue that during the two transitions there was a passage from years of politicized visions promoted and dominated by national and local actors to years of contested visions of Greece as a transnational natural gas corridor, promoted both by national and transnational actors. There has been a reconfiguration of the governance logics action space because of the increasing agency and power of transnational actors (the EU and the ‘Troika’) especially at times of political or financial crisis. The paper shows the importance of considering how transitions are affected by asymmetries in power and agency between national and international actors and indeed between different actors in a state.

Background The paper explores how regional actors engage with energy systems, flows and infrastructures in order to meet particular goals and offers a fine-tuned analysis of how differences arise, highlighting the policy-relevant insights that emerge. Methods Using a novel framework, the research performs a comparative case study analysis of three regions in Italy and two of the devolved territories of the UK, Wales and Scotland, drawing on interviews and documentary analysis.Results The paper shows that the socio-materialities of renewable energy enable a fine-tuned analysis of how institutions, governance and infrastructure can enable/constrain energy transitions and policy effectiveness at local and regional levels. The heuristic adopted highlights i) the institutions that matter for renewable energy and their varied effects on regional renewable energy deployment; ii) the range of agencies involved in strategically establishing, contesting and reproducing institutions, expectations, visions and infrastructure as renewable energy deployment unfolds at the regional level and iii) the nature and extent of infrastructure requirements for and constraints on renewable energy delivery and how they affect the regional capacity to shape infrastructure networks and facilitate renewable energy deployment. The paper shows how the regions investigated developed their institutional and governance capacity and made use of targets, energy visions and spatial planning to promote renewable energy deployment. The paper highlights that several mediating factors emerge from examining the interactions between regional physical resource endowments and energy infrastructure renewal. The analysis leads to several policy-relevant insights into what makes for renewable energy deployment. Conclusion The paper contributes to research that highlights the role of institutional variations and governance as foundations for geographical differences in the adoption of renewable energy and carries significant implications for policy thinking and implementation. It shows why and how policy-makers need to be more effective in balancing the range of goals/ interests for renewable energy deployment with the peculiarities and specificities of the regional contexts. The insights presented are useful to explain how energy choices and outcomes are shaped in particular places, how differences arise and operate in practice, and how they need to be taken into account in policy design and implementation.

A large interdisciplinary consortium of engineers, social scientists and policy analysts has developed three low-emissions, more-electric transition pathways for the UK. The approach is based on earlier work on understanding transitions, applying a multi-level perspective with landscape, regime and niche levels to the development of socio-technical scenarios. The pathways to 2050 focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing the use of low-emissions electricity for heating and transport. Part 1 describes studies of historical energy and infrastructure transitions that help to understand the dynamics and timing of past transitions. The role of large-scale and small-scale actors in the electricity sector and methods used to develop the pathways are then described. In part 2, associated technologies are evaluated to determine the choices that need to be made by UK energy policymakers and stakeholders. All three pathways are appraised in terms of their environmental performance using complementary life-cycle assessment and footprinting methods. Lessons can clearly be drawn for other industrialised nations attempting to reduce the emissions from their electricity generation systems, although local circumstances will determine country- and region-specific options.

A large interdisciplinary consortium of engineers, social scientists and policy analysts has developed three low-emissions, more-electric transition pathways for the UK. The approach is based on earlier work on understanding transitions, applying a multi-level perspective with landscape, regime and niche levels to the development of socio-technical scenarios. The pathways to 2050 focus on the power sector, including the potential for increasing the use of low-emissions electricity for heating and transport. Part 1 described studies of historical energy and infrastructure transitions that help to understand the dynamics and timing of past transitions. The role of large-scale and small-scale actors in the electricity sector and methods used to develop the pathways were also described. In part 2, associated technologies are evaluated to determine the choices that need to be made by UK energy policymakers and stakeholders. All three pathways are appraised in terms of their environmental performance using complementary life-cycle assessment and footprinting methods. Lessons can clearly be drawn for other industrialised nations attempting to reduce the emissions of their electricity generation systems, although local circumstances will determine country- and region-specific options.

Background This paper suggests that renewable energy (RE) deployment processes and their spatial unevenness can be explained by analysing the socio-material dimensions of RE. It explains how particular regional RE paths come to be favoured or hampered, and identifies factors that have contributed to these different outcomes. The paper shows the merit of investigating regional agency in energy research. Methods Using a novel analytical framework, the research performs a comparative case study analysis of selected regions in Italy and the UK, drawing on data obtained via documentary analysis and extensive in-depth interviews. Results The factors that explain regional variation in RE deployment are highlighted, providing evidence of how the distinctive features of RE deployment in five different regions arose and could be identified. The paper shows that understanding the socio-material dimensions of RE offers opportunities to understand the spatial unevenness of RE deployment at the regional levels and how to address it. While some regions have managed to successfully align their strategies and governance in order to maximise their RE potential, others have been less effective. The key features that influence the pace and direction of RE deployment at the regional level are i) the ways in which targets and resource availability are seen as drivers for RE deployment, ii) the degree of political autonomy in planning and the capacity to facilitate consenting processes at sub-regional levels, iii) the political will for RE expansion, elite consensus and the presence of relevant industry actors, and iv) the participation and involvement of regional government, even in the absence of formal regulatory powers, in shaping essential energy infrastructure investment. Conclusion While institutional capacity, planning and governance, the variety of actors and interests, compelling visions and credible expectations are all necessary prerequisites for coherent policy outcomes, the effects and degree of success can vary. This variance is influenced by the peculiarities and specificities of the regional contexts in which RE projects emerge. By identifying which aspects tend to constrain or enable RE deployment at the regional level, the paper helps to reveal the policy challenges that emerge and how they might be addressed.

Britain’s gas system developed in the early 1800s. Over the past two centuries the system and its local, national and international networks have experienced much socio-technical innovation, governance changes and six key transitions. Since the Climate Change Act of 2008, it faces a seventh challenging transition as the UK moves uncertainly towards a low-carbon energy system, including decarbonising electricity, heat and transport. The paper explores: the origins of the system by Murdoch, Boulton and Watt; the early 19th century development of local gas networks; innovative responses to, inter alia, the challenge of incandescent electric light from the 1880s, including the expansion of the customer base and the development and active promotion of cooking and heat services – the growth, fragmentation and incoherence of the industry between the two World Wars; the post-war period that saw the industry nationalised in 1948, as the multi-fuel economy developed; the institutional, technical and social challenges associated with the conversion to North Sea natural gas in the 1960s; and innovation and change in response to the challenges that flowed from the privatisation of British Gas in 1987. The paper shows how examining past processes of innovation, transition and transformation through the lens of institutional ‘governance logics’ helps appreciate the challenges faced by system actors, technologies, institutions and regulators in the past and offers insights into the issues posed by the low-carbon transition. The paper begins by outlining some analytical concepts used in the analysis. We then examine the regime’s six past transitions. The paper concludes by considering what insights these past experiences suggest for a seventh transition towards a low-carbon economy, for the future governance of the UK gas system and its networks and particularly for natural gas.

With the global sustainability transition in energy, hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) applications currently have important niche roles to play across several industrial sectors. Theorists examining this innovative activity have identified key socio-technical factors affecting the nature and pace of change. One functional approach to innovation, Technology-Specific Innovation Systems (TSISs), places national HFC Technological Innovation Systems (TISs) within a framework of a global HFC TSIS. This analytical approach suggests that HFC innovation can start anywhere in space. However, in a case study of HFC innovation and diffusion in the UK covering sixty years’ activity, this theoretical assumption is challenged. Event history analysis and interviews using a neofunctionalist TSIS approach suggest that positive feedback was on the brink of occurring in the UK HFC TIS by 2012. When additional organisational and spatial indicators are added, the evidence on the ground does not support the aspatial assumptions that underlie TIS heuristic thinking. Rather, it suggested that type of investment funding and spatial location can influence HFC innovation. In this context, the implications for HFC policy in the UK are discussed.

Against a backdrop of growing interest in low carbon alternatives to petroleum derived liquid fuels, this paper analyses two early attempts to develop alternative liquid fuels to rival petrol, the incumbent fuel. We focus on two alternatives manufactured in the UK during the inter-war period (1918–1938), a power alcohol and a petrol-from-coal. Both fuels received government support during a time of rapid growth in the motor industry, fluctuating economic conditions and fears of absolute oil shortages. Governance of fuel distribution in particular had significant effects on the economic feasibility of both fuels and their ability to penetrate a market dominated by the oil industry incumbents. The paper presents a rich, complex story of how the development of these fuels interacted with fluctuating political perceptions of energy security, changes in the framing of energy and shifts in governance, in what were to become failed attempts at path creation and transition.

Drawing on empirical material from two Italian regions, we show how various material dimensions have affected the spatial distribution and deployment of renewable energy (RE), in particular solar and wind energy. The paper draws on an approach to the analysis of materiality originally developed in the extractive industries literature, including fossil fuels. The paper acknowledges that RE forms have significantly fewer material components compared with coal, oil and gas and the other extractive industries. Nevertheless, the deployment of RE, the process of turning renewable ‘natural resources’ into productive use as viable forms of energy through stages of energy conversion, storage, transmission and distribution has material aspects like those involved in the deployment of fossil fuels. This paper aims to show how understanding these aspects of renewable energy offers an opportunity to unpack and explain how particular RE paths come to be favoured or hampered, and yields useful insights into the spatial unevenness and variation of RE deployment at the regional level. Italy has introduced a system of renewable energy incentives and between 2010 and 2012 experienced impressive growth in the renewable energy sector. The paper shows how the significant spatial variation in renewable energy deployment in the regions of Apulia and Tuscany can be explained in terms of the influence that the material dimensions exercised in relation to renewable energy deployment processes. The paper suggests that understanding the material dimensions of renewable energy offers useful insights into how and why RE realises – and quite often fails to realise – its potential in specific forms, spaces and places.

The article focuses on the development of the natural gas system in the UK from its establishment to the present day, as an analogue for the challenges of integrating large, infrastructural technical systems for a sustainability transition. It is inscribed within the multilevel perspective approach yet concentrates on ‘system integration’ as a complex and uncertain socio-technical process. The case study focuses on two interrelated transitions in order to provide a co-evolutionary and comprehensive understanding of the uncertainties in system development and integration faced by the UK natural gas industry. Through thick historical analysis of the gas grid transition we provide insights into the sustainability of similar network technology transitions. At the same time we contribute to complex systems modelling approaches (broadly defined to include quantitative and qualitative modelling) by unravelling the roles and agencies of actors, institutions and technologies in the modelling and making of sustainability transitions.

Water supplies built to serve Britain’s town populations in the early nineteenth century were mostly privately owned and financed by share offers allowed by Acts of Parliament. This system came under intense pressure as populations increased; supplies were often intermittent, few poorer households were connected and there was a lack of water for fire fighting and street cleansing. At a national level, the majority of water supply companies were bought by local authorities in the latter half of the century. However in a handful of towns and cities, the water supply remained in private hands. The current study explores the history of Bristol Water Works Company between the period of its incorporation in 1846 and 1890. Despite performance difficulties early in the period, national policy favouring local authority ownership and several purchase attempts, the company resisted and still exists as a private company to this day. The study explores how and why the company was successful in this resistance at a time when so many others were not. It suggests the value of exploring such local governance ‘anomalies’ and the conditions that gave rise to them, because of the way in which they can cast new light on our understanding of the local and national factors that underlay municipalisation.

This paper describes initial analysis of branching points on a set of transition pathways to a UK low carbon electricity future by 2050. As described in other papers in this special issue, we are exploring and analysing a set of core transition pathways, based on alternative governance patterns in which the ‘logics’ of market actors, government actors and civil society actors, respectively dominate. This core pathway analysis is enhanced by analyses of branching points within and across the pathways, which informs how competition between different logics plays out at key decision points. Branching points are defined as key decision points at which choices made by actors, in response to internal or external stresses or triggers, determine whether and in what ways the pathway is followed. A set of initial branching points for our three core transition pathways is identified through project and stakeholder workshops, and drawing on analysis of actors’ choices and responses at past branching points in energy system transitions. The potential responses of the actors are identified at these branching points, and risk mitigation strategies are formulated for the dominant actors to reinforce that pathway, as well as opportunities for actors to move away from the pathway.

The paper aims to inform historically the analyses of future sociotechnical transition pathways in the electricity sector, particularly those developed by the Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy project. It also aims to inform the theoretical approach to transitions by focusing on key decisions at ‘branching points’ that led to transitions in the UK gas energy services regime, which occurred under different governance patterns. The first historical case study covers the market-led transformation of the manufactured gas regime from 1877 to 1914, which developed the end-uses of gas beyond lighting to include cooking, and extended access to working class consumers. The second case study covers the period from 1948 to 1977, historically reconstructing the transition from town gas to natural gas. This state-led and coordinated conversion to natural gas was preceded by a period of destabilisation of the manufactured gas regime, the co-existence of several niche technologies and the hybridisation of the key actors and technological infrastructures of the incumbent regime. Comparing the cases provides insights for future energy service transitions by addressing the significance of power, trust and networking in the decision making processes involved in the governance of energy transitions.

NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Policy. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Policy, vol 52, 2013, DOI 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.10.052

Aims This study aims at validating a software tool for automated segmentation and quantification of the left atrium (LA) from 3D echocardiography. Methods and results The LA segmentation tool uses a dual-chamber model of the left side of the heart to automatically detect and track the atrio-ventricular plane and the LA endocardium in transthoracic 3D echocardiography. The tool was tested in a dataset of 121 ultrasound images from patients with several cardiovascular pathologies (in a multi-centre setting), and the resulting volumes were compared with those assessed manually by experts in a blinded analysis using conventional contouring. Bland–Altman analysis showed good agreement between the automated method and the manual references, with differences (mean ± 1.96 SD) of 0.5 ± 5.7 mL for LA minimum volume and −1.6 ± 9.7 mL for LA maximum volume (comparable to the inter-observer variability of manual tracings). The automated tool required no user interaction in 93% of the recordings, while 4% required a single click and only 2% required contour adjustments, reducing considerably the amount of time and effort required for LA volumetric analysis. Conclusion The automated tool was validated in a multi-centre setting, providing quantification of the LA volume over the cardiac cycle with minimal user interaction. The results of the automated analysis were in agreement with those estimated manually by experts. This study shows that such approach has clinical utility for the assessment of the LA morphology and function, automating and facilitating the time-consuming task of analysing 3D echocardiographic recordings.

This introduction to the special issue on past and prospective energy transitions presents some insights from research into past energy transitions of relevance for a possible transition to a low carbon economy. It also provides a synthesis of insights generated during a workshop attended by many of the leading researchers on this topic at Cardiff University in April 2011. The final section introduces the articles in the special issue. It is hoped that the workshop and this issue will help to move forwards the integration of the exciting research on past energy transitions in ways that will also offer valuable insights into the challenges of prospective low carbon transitions.

Whole system models for the GB electricity system suggest that distributed electricity storage has the potential to significantly reduce the system integration cost for future system scenarios. From a policy perspective, this poses the question why this value should not be realised within existing market structures. Opinion among stakeholders is divided. Some believe that storage deployment constitutes a ‘special case’ in need of policy support. Others insist that markets can provide the necessary platform to negotiate contracts, which reward storage operators for the range of services they could provide. This paper seeks to inform this debate with a process of stakeholder engagement using a perspective informed by socio-technical transition literatures. This approach allows the identification of tensions among actors in the electricity system and of possibilities for co-evolution in the deployment of storage technologies during a transition towards a low carbon electricity system. It also draws attention to policy-related challenges of technology lock-in and path dependency resulting from poor alignment of incumbent regimes with the requirements for distributed electricity storage.

Large scale storage offers the prospect of capturing and using excess electricity within a low carbon energy system, which otherwise might have to be wasted. Incorporating the role of storage into current scenario tools is challenging, because it requires high temporal resolution to reflect the effects of intermittent sources on system balancing. This study draws on results from a model with such resolution. It concludes that large scale storage could become economically viable for scenarios with high penetration of renewables. As the proportion of intermittent sources increases, the optimal type of storage shifts towards solutions with low energy related costs, even at the expense of efficiency. However, a range of uncertainties have been identified, concerning storage technology development, the regulatory environment, alternatives to storage and the stochastic uncertainty of year-on-year revenues. All of these negatively affect the cost of finance and the chances of successful market uptake. We argue, therefore, that, if the possible wider system and social benefits from the presence of storage are to be achieved, stronger and more strategic policy support may be necessary. More work on the social and system benefits of storage is needed to gauge the appropriate extent of support measures.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the innovation effort underway in China to develop domestic technological capacity for the manufacturing of a low‐carbon energy technology: solar photovoltaics (PV).Design/methodology/approachA framework for analysis based on the “technological capability” (TC) literature was developed and applied to explore the innovative capacities and performance of the Chinese PV manufacturers. The paper draws on a survey conducted in China in mid‐2005 with a selected number of PV manufacturers, as well as on personal interviews with other Chinese PV stakeholders and international experts.FindingsThe paper shows that by 2005 PV firms in China had progressed well beyond basic operational capabilities and were quickly moving away from being mere users of imported PV components. Despite the existence of considerable differences between the firms, their competitiveness extended beyond the use of relatively cheap labour to the reduction of production costs through TC improvements. The paper recognises that the Chinese firms had developed innovation capacity only in the most mature PV technology family, i.e. crystalline silicon, which could leave them vulnerable if new PV technology families takeover. Moreover, the Chinese Government has not so far chosen to build upon its dynamic low‐carbon PV industry by promoting long‐term measures for the development of the domestic PV market. Consequently, challenges remain for the industry.Originality/valueThere has been limited previous research into China's capacity for PV innovation, how it is developing and how it might be improved. The paper shows that a better understanding of these aspects has important bearings on China's low‐carbon future and on potential development of a significant export industry.

Aims To evaluate whether the three-dimensional (3D) left atrial volume index (LAVI) and/or the presence of carotid plaques (CP) can predict the result of dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE), thereby aiding interpretation. Methods and results We studied 130 patients (52 male, mean age 63 ± 11 years) with normal resting wall motion (WM) undergoing DSE. All patients had the end-systolic 2D and 3D LAVI measured, as well as bilateral carotid scanning. DSE was reported as abnormal in 50 (38.5%) patients. 3D end-systolic LAVI measurements were significantly higher (31.5 ± 8.2 vs 27.4 ± 7.4 mL/m2, P = 0.004) in those with an abnormal DSE. The two groups did not differ significantly on the 2D derived maximum LAVI measurements (36.2 ± 9.5 vs 34.2 ± 11.2, P = 0.299) and the presence of plaques in the carotid arteries (89.1 vs. 76.2%, P = 0.100). Receiver operating characteristic curves were created to define cut-offs that could predict the DSE result for the 3D LAVI. A 3D LAVI of >24.5 mL/m2 had a sensitivity of 80% for predicting an abnormal DSE, whereas a value of >36.0 mL/m2 had a specificity of 93% for the same cause. Intra-observer ( r = 0.997, P < 0.0001) and inter-observer ( r = 0.961, P < 0.0001) variability for 3D LAVI measurements was found to be excellent. Conclusion Three-dimensional (but not 2D) assessment of LAVI may offer additional information in predicting the result of DSE. Carotid scanning did not offer additional information for the same cause.

The lack of ahydrogenrefuellinginfrastructure is one of the major obstacles to the introduction of the hydrogen vehicles to the road transport market. To help overcome this hurdle a likely transitional solution is to introduce hydrogen for niche applications such as buses or other types of fleet vehicles for which fuel demand is predictable and localised. This paper analyses the costs of different hydrogen production-delivery pathways, via a case study of buses in London. Scenarioanalysisovertime (2007–2025) is used to investigate potential changes to the cost of hydrogen as a result of technology development, growing demand for hydrogen and changes in energy prices (gas and electricity). It is found that factors related to hydrogen demand have the greatest effect on the unit cost of hydrogen, while for the whole of the analysis period, on-site SMR (steam methane reforming) remains the least-cost production-delivery pathway.

A debate has begun on the potential for renewable raw materials (RRM) to substitute fossil hydrocarbons in synthetic products. A related debate has arisen in the liquidfuels sector with contested proposals for the expansion of biofuels production. A transition to integrated biorefineries as analogues of oil refineries has been advocated, to enable RRM to compete with petroleum and minimise environmental impacts. Transitions between technological systems involve evolutionary processes, in which change emerges from reinforcing feedbacks between different levels of the socio-technical system. The past both shapes the current system and influences and constrains future options and pathways. Thus, over the past half century oil refiners and the associated petrochemical industry have achieved a high level of integration that challenges the competitive development of RRM, for which the full range of necessary technologies and product families are not well established and the commercial and technical risks are high. This paper explores a case study of the transition from coal-based to petrochemical feedstocks in the UK (1921–1967), applying a system dynamics approach to extract and elucidate the key interrelationships between technologies, policy and society. The findings and insights are then used to inform a discussion of scenarios for future biorefinery technologies, with a focus on bio-based chemicals.

In November 2007, the UK Government set the direction for initial commercial-scale demonstration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the UK. It announced the rules for a competition to identify a demonstration of post-combustion capture project at a pulverized coal power plant, linked to a full chain of CCS, including carbon dioxide transport to an offshore storage site. Because there are several options for further demonstration and initial deployment projects to build on this initial effort, the UK Government will need to decide its priorities for CCS deployment. Regardless of the route, a successful transition to widespread use of CCS would have to overcome significant technical, commercial, regulatory, and political challenges. This article considers the significance of understanding and using lessons learned from previous major UK energy sector transitions to manage the development, demonstration, and deployment of CCS. The past transitions considered here are not perfect analogies, but they do suggest a range of potential futures for CCS deployment in the UK. They also provide insights into possible drivers and triggers for deployment and the general business environment required for a successful transition to widespread commercial use of CCS in the UK.

How large is the potential demand for bio-heat in the UK? Whilst most research has focused on the supply of biomass for energy production, an understanding of the potential demand is crucial to the uptake of heat from bioenergy. We have designed a systematic framework utilising market segmentation techniques to assess the potential demand for biomass heat in the UK. First, the heat market is divided into relevant segments, characterised in terms of their final energy consumption, technological and fuel supply options. Second, the key technical, economic and organisational factors that affect the uptake of bioenergy in each heat segment are identified, classified and then analysed to reveal which could be strong barriers, which could be surmounted easily, and for which bioenergy heat represents an improvement compared to alternatives. The defined framework is applied to the UK residential sector. We identify provisionally the most promising market segments for bioenergy heat, and their current levels of energy demand. We find that, depending on the assumptions, the present potential demand for bio-heat in the UK residential sector ranges between 3% (conservative estimate) and 31% (optimistic estimate) of the total energy consumed in the heat market.

Vehicles fuelled by hydrogen (H2) have attracted increasing attention because of their potentially enhanced environmental profiles. Their penetration into the vehicle stock will be influenced by the spread of refuelling facilities. This study investigates local attitudes towards the proposed installation of H2 storage facilities at existing refuelling stations throughout London. Using multinomial logit analysis, we identify the determinants of attitudes. Results suggest that residents living very close to a proposed H2 facility are less likely to be opposed than residents living 200–500 m away. Opposition appears to be determined by a lack of trust in safety regulations, non-environmental attitudes, and concerns about the existing local refuelling station. The social cost to local residents of a local H2 storage facility was estimated using a method developed by Atkinson et al. [2004. ‘Amenity’ or ‘eyesore’? Negative willingness to pay for options to replace electricity transmission towers. Applied Economics Letters 11(4), 203–208], which elicits the amount of time respondents are willing to commit to oppose a new facility development. Using the leisure rate of time, the social cost is estimated at just under £14 per local opposed resident. Add to this the WTP to support opposition efforts by a local group, and the value comes to just under £25 per opposed resident.

Aims Real-time 3D echocardiography (RT3DE) and 2D low mechanical index (LMI), contrast specific, myocardial perfusion imaging are now both accepted techniques. We evaluated the feasibility of an RT3DE LMI implementation in unselected patients. Methods and results Forty-six patients undergoing contrast enhanced dobutamine stress echo were imaged with novel 3D LMI power modulation software. All patients underwent contrast enhanced 2D and RT3DE acquisitions, in left ventricular opacification (LVO), and LMI perfusion modes. The data sets were evaluated segmentally for wall motion (WM) and myocardial contrast enhancement. Of the 736 evaluated segments, WM could be assessed in 726 (98.6%) of the 2D and 708 (96.2%) 3D segments (P ¼ 0.007). Perfusion could be assessed in 721 (98%) of 2D and 701 (95.2%) of 3D segments (P ¼ 0.006). Six hundred and sixty-one segments had normal WM and thickening in 2D and of these RT3DE demonstrated normal myocardial opacification in 77.2% of basal, 85% of mid, and 91.8% of apical segments. Thirty-four segments were akinetic, with no evidence of perfusion in 2D, and of these RT3DE revealed a perfusion defect in 31 (91%, P ¼ NS). Conclusion LMI RT3DE evaluation of myocardial perfusion is feasible in most segments. It has the potential to accurately locate and possibly quantify perfusion defects.

Despite a deepening understanding of systems and processes by which the innovation and diffusion of cleaner technologies occurs, relatively little attention has been given to the development of policy processes that reflect this deeper understanding. A set of guiding principles for improving sustainable innovation policy processes has been formulated and disseminated by the authors and colleagues in research drawing on theoretical and empirical analysis, including a case study of low carbon energy innovation in the UK, and interactions with policy-makers and other stakeholders through a series of workshops. This paper elaborates on two of the guiding principles: (1) stimulating the development of a sustainable innovation policy regime, bringing together innovation and environmental policy regimes; (2) applying systems thinking, engaging with the complexity and systemic interactions of innovation systems and policy-making processes, to promote a transition to sustainability.

This paper analyses recent, current and potential future relations between policy processes and substantive outcomes in UK low carbon innovation policy, focussing on policies relating to renewable electricity generation technologies. It examines the development of policy processes relating to the adoption and implementation of the Renewables Obligation and how these may affect the current and likely future success of the Obligation in promoting low carbon innovation. It examines the new policy and institutional processes put in place in the 2003 Energy White Paper and argues that these are unlikely to provide the strategic long-term framework needed to realise the ambitious goals for UK energy policy set out in the White Paper. Finally, it outlines some suggestions for further development of policy processes to facilitate improved delivery of these goals, based on guiding principles for sustainable innovation policy processes, developed by the authors and their colleagues.

The use of hydrogen (H2) as transport fuel is often said to suffer from the ‘chicken and egg’ problem: vehicles that depend on H2 cannot go on the roads due to the lack of an adequate infrastructure, and the almost non-existent fleet of H2 vehicles on the roads makes it economically unsound to build a H2 infrastructure. Although both hydrogen vehicles (fuel cell and internal combustion engine) and the related infrastructure have been (and are being) developed and some are commercially available, cost is seen as a major barrier. With today's technologies, H2 only becomes competitive with petrol and diesel when produced at large quantities, suitable for supplying e.g. thousands of H2 buses. The question is, how might this point be reached, and are there least cost infrastructural pathways to reach it. This paper tries to address the latter question, using the early development of a H2 infrastructure for buses in London as a case study. The paper presents some of the analyses and results from a Ph.D. project (in progress) being undertaken at Imperial College London, funded by EPSRC (Grant GR/R50790/01). The results presented here illustrate that cost of hydrogen production and delivery vary mainly with levels of hydrogen demand and delivery distances, as well as other logistic criteria; least cost production–delivery pathways have been identified for various hydrogen demand scenarios and refuelling station set-ups. Another important conclusion is that the pattern of converting a group of refuelling stations to hydrogen (e.g. a group of refuelling stations for buses in London) has a significant effect on the unit cost of hydrogen.

This paper presents a summary of research conducted on the short-term health benefits arising from the introduction of vehicle exhaust catalysts (VECs) to petrol-fuelled cars in the UK. We carried out an evaluation of the environmental and health benefits from a reduction in emissions through this mandated technology against its costs, for urban areas of Great Britain. We made an ex post assessment – based on available data to 1998 – and an ex ante assessment – projected to 2005, when full penetration of VECs into the car fleet is anticipated. The results indicate substantial health benefits from VECs that are likely to exceed their costs significantly: by 1998, when no more than half the car fleet had catalysts installed, the net societal health benefits were around £500 million, while by 2005, the benefits could reach £2 billion. We also found through environmental surveys, that although lead concentrations in road dusts have fallen by 50% in urban areas, platinum accumulations near roads have risen up to 90-fold higher than natural background levels. This suggests that although as yet there is no evidence of adverse health effects from platinum, further monitoring may be warranted.

In industrialised countries water service providers (WSPs) must provide an appropriate level of service with an acceptable performance at an acceptable cost to customers. In the UK a move towards sustainable development is now also a major goal for WSPs. However, the imposition of institutional systems and regulatory targets still encourage the adoption of less sustainable technologies or solutions by the water industry. It is within this context, that the Sustainable Water industry Asset Resource Decisions (SWARD) project has developed a set of decision support processes that allow WSPs to assess the relative sustainability of water/wastewater system asset development decisions. A Guidebook has been produced that takes the WSP and its stakeholders through the processes essential to incorporating sustainability in asset investment decision‐making. Several case studies that demonstrate the SWARD principles in application are included within the Guidebook, the experience of which is described in this paper.

The incorporation of sustainability assessment into decision-making processes is a key task for water service providers in the UK and elsewhere. This paper describes the development and application of a set of sustainability criteria, which have been developed and tested with project partners in the UK and Romania. They will be used in a 'guidebook' that will set out a framework to facilitate the inclusion of sustainability in the decision-making process. This work is part of the Sustainable Water Industry Asset Resource Decisions project to develop a multi-criteria analysis decision support system to assist water service providers to assess the relative sustainability of water/wastewater system asset development decisions.

Although, it has received relatively little attention as a potential method of combating climate change in comparison to energy reduction measures and development of carbon-free energy technologies, sequestration of carbon dioxide in geologic or biospheric sinks has enormous potential. This paper reviews the potential for sequestration using geological and ocean storage as a means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Considerable quantities of carbon dioxide separated from natural gas deposits and from hydrogen production from steam reforming of methane are already used in enhanced oil recovery and in extraction of coalbed methane, the carbon dioxide remaining sequestered at the end of the process. A number of barriers lie in the way of its implementation on a large scale. There are concerns about possible environmental effects of large-scale injection of carbon dioxide especially into the oceans. Available technologies, especially of separating and capturing the carbon dioxide from waste stream, have high costs at present, perhaps representing an additional 40–100% onto the costs of generating electricity. In most of the world there are no mechanisms to encourage firms to consider sequestration. Considerable R&D is required to bring down the costs of the process, to elucidate the environmental effects of storage and to ensure that carbon dioxide will not escape from stores in unacceptably short timescales. However, the potential of sequestration should not be underestimated as a contribution to global climate change mitigation measures.

A systems approach is used to model the urban water and wastewater system. Scenarios are developed for the implementation of a range of water demand management measures, including (a) leakage reduction, (b) the increasing use of water metering, (c) the replacement of standard WCs by low-flow WCs, and (d) the introduction of greywater recycling systems. These measures are assessed according to the water saving, cost per unit of water saved, and other indicators of the relative contribution to the sustainability of the system. Preliminary assessments of selected environmental costs and benefits are also included.

The possibility that future solid polymer fuel cell vehicles will be fuelled by methanol has been suggested. If this is the case, it will have significant implications for the future structure of the methanol supply industry, and methanol supply and availability may have an impact on the take-up of these SPFC vehicles. In this study, a model assessing the possible future penetration of methanol SPFC vehicles was constructed. This suggested that it would be possible for SPFC vehicles to achieve rapid market penetration after an initially slow start. A further model indicated that methanol supply would be adequate for vehicle demand until about 2013, when significant new capacity would be required. The cost of this new capacity was estimated, along with the cost of providing refuelling infrastructure such as road tankers, storage, and suitable fuelling stations. Amortising the cost over a short period (to 2013) could double the pre-tax price of methanol as a fuel, while over a longer timeframe (to 2029) it would add less than 10% to this value. The model suggests that methanol capacity need not be a constraint to the future introduction of SPFC vehicles using it as a fuel, but that other factors such as fuel purity and safety must be carefully considered before real costs can be calculated.

Fuel cell cars will appear on the market early in the next century. A question still remains — whether these vehicles will store onboard, hydrogen or, the hydrogen-rich carrier, methanol. There are a number of key areas surrounding this question, three of which are safety, economics and efficiency and emissions. Each of these issues was examined using the available literature. It can be seen that it is only with emissions that a clear difference appears and then hydrogen shows an advantage over methanol.

With the recent growth in concern about climate change, advocates of nuclear electricity have claimed that this technology offers an attractive option for carbon abatement in the developed world. This paper discusses whether privately owned new reactors, subject to current nuclear technology, could have market chances in the next decades in the UK liberalised electricity supply industry, when current generation capacity will start being decommissioned and UK CO2 emissions may be priced. We discuss key parametric assumptions that condition the future cost competitiveness of nuclear power vis-a-vis gas-fired generation. We explore where greater cost uncertainties lie and which key economic and political tradeoffs are involved. Our discussion is based on well-documented sources of expected costs for nuclear and gas-fired generation. On the nuclear side, we concentrate on capital and back-end costs. By considering different scenarios for future gas prices in Europe, we analyse the levels of carbon taxation that would be needed to make current gas-fired and nuclear power technologies equally dear. Considering the political acceptability of expected triggered increases in the end-user cost of energy services, our results suggest that, for the case of carbon or energy taxation, it seems unlikely that current nuclear technology could win market space within liberalised electricity industries for new reactors in the coming decades. This diagnosis is further validated by the financial and political costs associated with significant uncertainties surrounding the valuation of nuclear back-end costs.

This paper considers methodological questions concerning indicators of sustainability, which have arisen in the course of an EPSRC‐supported project investigating a systems approach to assessing the sustainability of cities. The project aimed: (a) to develop a methodology, the Reference Sustainability System (RSS), for representing the energy, resource and material flows, on which the environmental sustainability of cities depends; (b) to show how this methodology could contribute to a more systematic assessment of the potential of technological and resource management strategies to enhance urban sustainability. Systems models of the material or resource flows caused by the household demand for paper, energy, water and bottled water have been constructed. The project has highlighted the complexity of assessing the contributions of specific technologies and strategies to enhanced sustainability. Particular issues raised include the relative merits and problems of using externality valuation methods compared to physical indicators, the difficulties of aggregating environmental impacts, the question of where system boundaries should be drawn in a life cycle analysis, and the need to consider both distant and local impacts which arise from the end‐use demands of urban populations. The paper explores these issues, through the use of modelling results from the case studies. Particular emphasis is placed on the communication of research results to policy makers, interested organisations and the public, drawing on recent experience with the dissemination of results from the project's first case study relating to waste‐paper management options.

Anticipation of final user energy demand is central to suppliers' and policy makers' plans. Recent developments in dynamic econometrics, such as the cointegration approach, have enabled energy modellers to study long run relationships between demand and its determinants, principally economic activity and real prices. The purpose of this paper is to present the SEECEM output, elasticity estimates and forecasts using the cointegration approach, as well as the methodology and analysis underlying them. As economic activity is expected to grow in all but the iron and steel sector, the long run relationships indicate that most sectors will increase overall fuel use up to the year 2000. Despite weak but potentially volatile world oil prices and given stable environmental policies, average real oil prices should remain broadly constant except in the transport sector. Economic activity elasticities and increased competition in supply industries imply that natural gas and electricity are likely to take an increasing share of final user requirements at the expense of petroleum products and coal. This gradual and continued shift towards cleaner fuels is likely to ameliorate adverse environmental consequences resulting from the overall growth in final user fuel demand.

This paper shows how a number of the complex interrelationships between energy, environment and economic welfare can be investigated with the aid of a 10-sector input-output (I-O) model of the UK, with pollution emission coefficients and a European sulphur deposition vector. The paper reviews relevant past applications of I-O analysis in the energy-environment area and describes the ENDAM program and its operation. It is used to simulate the effects of a variety of policies and possibilities, not only through changes in exogenous variables (final demand and income taxes and transfers) but also through changes in the structural matrices and their coefficients. In each case the full effects, direct, indirect and income induced, can be traced and the changes in comparative static equilibrium values discovered. In this way, policy issues connected with energy use and environmental impacts, employment and economic welfare have been investigated.

The provision of artificial light was revolutionised by a series of discontinuous innovations in lighting appliances, fuels, infrastructures and institutions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. In Britain, the real price of lighting fell dramatically (3,000-fold between 1800 and 2000) and quality rose. Along with rises in real income and population, these developments meant that total consumption of lighting was 40,000 times greater by 2000 than in 1800. The paper presents estimates of the income and price elasticities of demand for lighting services over the past three hundred years, and explores how they evolved. Income and price elasticities increased dramatically (to 3.5 and -1.7, respectively) between the 1840s and the 1890s and fell rapidly in the twentieth century. Even in the twentieth century and at the beginning of the twenty-first century, rebound effects in the lighting market still appear to be potentially important. This paper provides a first case study of the long run effects of socio-economic change and technological innovation on the consumption of energy services in the UK. We suggest that understanding the evolution of the demand for energy services and the factors that influence it contributes to a better understanding of future energy uses and associated greenhouse gas emissions.

A series of GaAs/AlxGa1-xAs MBE structures, in which x ranged from 0.10 to 0.40, was studied using microscope spectrophotometry (MSP). The MSP reflectance measurements were found to be extremely sensitive to compositional variation, with a clear inverse relationship between Al content and reflected intensity, and a sympathetic relationship between composition and dispersion. Theoretical optical models were simulated and fitted to the measured data to give layer dimensions which fitted remarkably well with SIMS data. It is concluded that MSP has great potential for the non-destructive metrology and quality control of simple and complex multilayer structures.